Global Spring?

[InkaUtexas 26807]

3 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

Sure - meant to ask about the alignment of this particular rebel group. Is it mixed, or does it lean more heavily in one direction or another?

I cannot find What rebel group. This is the best I can see and it is interesting for sure. Seems like a coalition again.

“Our forces have begun entering the city of Aleppo,” said the newly formed rebel coalition, the Military Operations Command." This is from CNN.

France24 has a bit more. Reminds me of the US backed Kurds when they partnered with Sunni groups.

Jihadists and their Turkish-backed allies reached Syria's second city of Aleppo Friday, as they pressed a lightning offensive against forces of the Iranian- and Russian-backed government.

They cite Hayat Tahrir al-Sham is involved. They have played on both sides.

https://www.france24.com/en/live-news/20241129-syria-jihadists-allies-shell-aleppo-in-shock-offensive

 

But keep one thing in mind. I know people don't buy this, but it is a reality. ISIS NEVER went hard vs. Assad. Yet, his group is proclaimed Shia, their avowed enemy. That shoudl have been the #1 enemy.

So who the fuck deals with who in the Syrian front changes is hard to track. All  that is known is a bunch of people don't like Assad and a bunch do.

[Laxtonto 13013]

Did they just do the exploding pager/walkie-talkie trick in Syria..

Seeing unconfirmed reports, but enough of them that it might actually be something..

[InkaUtexas 26807]

25 minutes ago, Laxtonto said:

Did they just do the exploding pager/walkie-talkie trick in Syria..

Seeing unconfirmed reports, but enough of them that it might actually be something..

Where you getting this? All I see is 1 Iranian commander killed.

[KYHorn 17568]

Aleppo celebrates the liberation of the city from Assad's army.

Aleppo is the second largest city in Syria. It is said that it was literally surrendered without a fight.

Russian troops fled and were captured. Russia cannot send aid to the terrorist regime because it is stuck in Ukraine. Iran and its allies lost commanders in the war against Israel and their troops also fled. 

Edited November 30 by KYHorn

[InkaUtexas 26807]

This could get interesting. But on that note, should not Four Seasons now be subject to US Sanctions? Allowing members of a war crime government to stay there? And in Moscow, land of the super dickheads.

Bill Gates' Cascade Investment LLC and Kingdom Holding Company, an affiliate of Saudi Arabian Prince Alwaleed bin Talal, are the majority owners of Four Seasons Hotels and Resorts:

[atomheartbevo 90550]

Aleppo fell without a fight and the Russians could not protect their own troops there?  Assad and family in Moscow?

[Brisketexan 106643]

Aleppo fell without a fight and the Russians could not protect their own troops there?  Assad and family in Moscow?

Wait..this is nuts. After all this, the Assad regime falls in….a fucking day?
Yeah, I wanna hear/see more about this.

[atomheartbevo 90550]

30 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

Wait..this is nuts. After all this, the Assad regime falls in….a fucking day?
Yeah, I wanna hear/see more about this.

Al Jazeera claims to have people on the ground

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/11/29/rebel-groups-launch-attacks-on-syrias-aleppo-city

Quote

Russian and Syrian warplanes bombed rebel-held areas northwest Syria near the border with Turkiye on Thursday to try to push back the offensive that had captured territory for the first time in years, Syrian army and rebel sources said.

Reporting from Hatay, Turkiye, Al Jazeera’s Sinem Koseoglu said that opposition sources say they have seized control of more than 47 villages.

Quote

“They have taken control of the countryside of Western Aleppo. But of course, they are close to the city centre of Aleppo… Also the opposition factions took control of the M5 highway which is a very strong logistics and military transfer route,” she said.

“Given the situation in southern Lebanon, the opposition saw an opportunity to gain back these places from the Syrian government,” she added.

Quote

Colin Clarke, senior research fellow at The Soufan Center, told Al Jazeera that rebel fighters were unlikely to be able to push beyond northwestern Syria.

“They’re contained to control of Idlib, Aleppo… I think they have their hands full in governing the current territory. I wouldn’t expect them to push much more beyond northwestern Syria at the moment,” he said.

Quote

He also said the developments were likely to cause concern in Iran, a key ally of the Syrian government.

“The Iranians are overwhelmed. What once was this grand project, put forth by Suleimani…this axis of resistance, this desire to establish a so called Shia crescent, has now crumbled over the past year,” Clark said.

Quote

Asked about unconfirmed Russian Telegram reports that al-Assad had flown into Moscow for talks with Russian President Vladimir Putin, Dmitry Peskov said he had “nothing to say” on the matter.

The Turkish foreign ministry in a statement demanded an end to strikes on Syria’s rebel-held Idlib. “It is of utmost importance for Turkiye that yet another and greater instability is avoided and that civilians are not harmed.”

 

[InkaUtexas 26807]

Always expected Turks to get deeper into this. Here is their shot. Russia is occupied. Iran is weakened. Non-Turks will die. Perfect set up for them to push the modern "ottoman" vision.

[KYHorn 17568]

4 hours ago, InkaUtexas said:

This could get interesting. But on that note, should not Four Seasons now be subject to US Sanctions? Allowing members of a war crime government to stay there? And in Moscow, land of the super dickheads.

Bill Gates' Cascade Investment LLC and Kingdom Holding Company, an affiliate of Saudi Arabian Prince Alwaleed bin Talal, are the majority owners of Four Seasons Hotels and Resorts:

Four Seasons is known to host all manner of characters

[InkaUtexas 26807]

19 minutes ago, KYHorn said:

Four Seasons is known to host all manner of characters

Yeah, but they rarely admit it.

[KYHorn 17568]

11 minutes ago, InkaUtexas said:

Yeah, but they rarely admit it.

Spoiler

 

 

[atomheartbevo 90550]

3 hours ago, InkaUtexas said:

Always expected Turks to get deeper into this. Here is their shot. Russia is occupied. Iran is weakened. Non-Turks will die. Perfect set up for them to push the modern "ottoman" vision.

So reading around, people are claiming that it’s a whole lot of Turkish-speaking foreign militants in Syria fighting against the Syrian Army.  And there claims tgat dozens of outlying villages fell in the process, so they are building up logistics chains into Aleppo, along with a backstop that the Russians can’t easily go around.

If organized by Erdogan at the state level, that would explain how they pulled off in three days what it took Assad and the Russians a few years to do in regard to Aleppo.

If they break the Russian and Syrian armies there, and Iran already has its own problems (plus Russia and Ukraine, so Russia can’t rush in reinforcements), what’s next?  The Saudis maybe the only ones with the financial resources to help out, but they don’t have the manpower, and they have their own problems on their border to watch.

Its crazy how dominant they were in facing the Russians and Syrians.

[InkaUtexas 26807]

38 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

So reading around, people are claiming that it’s a whole lot of Turkish-speaking foreign militants in Syria fighting against the Syrian Army.  And there claims tgat dozens of outlying villages fell in the process, so they are building up logistics chains into Aleppo, along with a backstop that the Russians can’t easily go around.

If organized by Erdogan at the state level, that would explain how they pulled off in three days what it took Assad and the Russians a few years to do in regard to Aleppo.

If they break the Russian and Syrian armies there, and Iran already has its own problems (plus Russia and Ukraine, so Russia can’t rush in reinforcements), what’s next?  The Saudis maybe the only ones with the financial resources to help out, but they don’t have the manpower, and they have their own problems on their border to watch.

Its crazy how dominant they were in facing the Russians and Syrians.

The rebels hit the west side of the city. This cuts it off from Damascus and the HQ/Supply from the central region and coast. That is pretty smart, but they are now in the middle of two Assad groups.

I don't think they break the rebels there. Surround it, cut off supplies, etc. In modern wars what do cities really matter?

Only thing left then is if Turkey would go in and become more active. Declare it a protected zone or something. Saudi's won't do shit on either side. Who would they fund they already are not?

Russia could bring in their wagner and wagner groups from Africa back. Look for IL-76 flights. Maybe even some fighters from there.

 

[InkaUtexas 26807]

@atomheartbevo  This is not a bad quick overview. It is interesting this cat says there was intell this was coming. Again, I wonder about complacency in Assads army.

 

 

[Schulz2.0 29243]

[KYHorn 17568]

Things are moving very quickly

 

 

[Schulz2.0 29243]

 

 

 

[Schulz2.0 29243]

Multiple accounts are saying Syrian rebels are in Hama.

[InkaUtexas 26807]

So roadway S towards Damascus cut twice.

 

[atomheartbevo 90550]

Just how much military aid can Russia muster within 72 hours to counter thousands of organized and well-supplied rebels?  They don’t have the means to sail anything heavy through the Black Sea, so everything will have to come in by air.

Would be hilarious if they start sending in North Koreans.

[InkaUtexas 26807]

10 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

Just how much military aid can Russia muster within 72 hours to counter thousands of organized and well-supplied rebels?  They don’t have the means to sail anything heavy through the Black Sea, so everything will have to come in by air.

Would be hilarious if they start sending in North Koreans.

Probably small stuff. Syria should have equipment. Artillery, light armor, etc. They will need bombs, rockets, ammo and such. Artillery will be the issue. Barrel bombs coming at ya. Perhaps some more chemical attacks. But if those videos are real then the Rebels have more manpads. About those though. If not stored correctly can be finicky.

Don't think NORKS. I would look North Africa (Sahel) or Iranian proxies. Flights over Iraq not on the ME/EU highway will be interesting to watch for. Dagestan/Chechnya maybe, but those would be palace guards and not fodder.

So they can airlift in. The issue is what do they airlift? Russia is not using dumb bombs that much in Ukraine so they should have those sitting around. Would be interesting if some of those storage units went boom.

[atomheartbevo 90550]

40 minutes ago, InkaUtexas said:

Probably small stuff. Syria should have equipment. Artillery, light armor, etc. They will need bombs, rockets, ammo and such. Artillery will be the issue. Barrel bombs coming at ya. Perhaps some more chemical attacks. But if those videos are real then the Rebels have more manpads. About those though. If not stored correctly can be finicky.

Yeah, MANPADs would make short work of any aircraft dropping barrel bombs. 

Meanwhile, Russia is withdrawing from an additional base and it looks like they are headed for the coast as a whole.

 

[Schulz2.0 29243]

 

[atomheartbevo 90550]

Georgia popping off a bit

 

 

[HornOnTheBayou 9057]

I totally understand that an 8 OT game can be stressful, but maybe these guys should just take it down a notch.

[Macanudo 13259]

23 minutes ago, HornOnTheBayou said:

I totally understand that an 8 OT game can be stressful, but maybe these guys should just take it down a notch.

SEC! SEC! SEC!

[956 Worldwide 35524]

53 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

Georgia popping off a bit

 

 

The Georgian Dream (National-populist Kremlin cat’s paw party) Prime Minister announced he was suspending accession talks with the EU, which is what caused this current round of protests.  It’s currently required per the Georgian constitution to work towards EU accession.  Georgian Dream soundly won recent parliamentary elections with lots of (as yet unproven) allegations of cheating. 
 

A reminder that a similar move (terminating talks on an EU free trade agreement) led to the 2014 Ukraine protests that booted Yanukovych.  The next few days will be extremely important. 

[atomheartbevo 90550]

1 hour ago, 956 Worldwide said:

A reminder that a similar move (terminating talks on an EU free trade agreement) led to the 2014 Ukraine protests that booted Yanukovych.  The next few days will be extremely important. 

Giving off some similar vibes

 

[leaf 718]

2 hours ago, atomheartbevo said:

Giving off some similar vibes

 

I think this is the person shooting those fireworks.

 

 

[atomheartbevo 90550]

Wrong thread

Edited December 1 by atomheartbevo

[atomheartbevo 90550]

4 minutes ago, leaf said:

I think this is the person shooting those fireworks.

[956 Worldwide 35524]

 

[staboner 5067]

huh, its like they don't wanna be russian and shit

advantage aggy

[atomheartbevo 90550]

2 hours ago, staboner said:

huh, its like they don't wanna be russian and shit

Not that Russia could take the rest of Georgia at this point, but with Georgia veering away from Russia, with Russia potentially losing a shitload of troops in Syria and their last safe warm-water port, with the rejection in Moldova, with rumblings in some of the 'stans and Turkey starting to exert itself, I wonder if Vladimir is getting a little nervous.

[Goofyboy 3428]

South Korea is popping off.

https://amp.cnn.com/cnn/2024/12/03/asia/south-korea-martial-law-intl

[Brisketexan 106643]

11 hours ago, atomheartbevo said:

Not that Russia could take the rest of Georgia at this point, but with Georgia veering away from Russia, with Russia potentially losing a shitload of troops in Syria and their last safe warm-water port, with the rejection in Moldova, with rumblings in some of the 'stans and Turkey starting to exert itself, I wonder if Vladimir is getting a little nervous.

When you start fucking around in multiple places.....and you don't have the resources to handle all of those places (largely due to your disastrous miscalculation in Ukraine, which is a resource sink).....then your strategy ends up looking a whole lot like Lucy in the chocolate factory, cuz you just can't handle them all.

[atomheartbevo 90550]

18 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

then your strategy ends up looking a whole lot like Lucy in the chocolate factory, cuz you just can't handle them all.

If he has to pick one, it’s gonna have to be Syria. Georgia and Moldova are “like to haves” but Syria is a “must have”, and it also addresses Türkiye to an extent.

[Brisketexan 106643]

5 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

If he has to pick one, it’s gonna have to be Syria. Georgia and Moldova are “like to haves” but Syria is a “must have”, and it also addresses Türkiye to an extent.

Counterpoint: historical habit and fixation on restoring the USSR are compelling.  Syria is a much better strategic choice.  But based on those other factors.....don't count out him pouring it all into Georgia.

[atomheartbevo 90550]

9 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

Counterpoint: historical habit and fixation on restoring the USSR are compelling.  Syria is a much better strategic choice.  But based on those other factors.....don't count out him pouring it all into Georgia.

Georgia would give them a couple of very nice ports, including warm water ports, but they still have a lot of naval forces stuck on the other side of the Straits in the Mediterranean that can’t come through and losing Syria ends their Middle East ventures.

 Syria is also a major hub between Russia and North Africa, so it’s not just about Russia’s sphere of influence in the Middle East, but Russia’s sphere of influence in Africa.

Georgia is not going anywhere and Russian bribes will still spend a year or two down the road, Syria is a huge loss.

[InkaUtexas 26807]

1 hour ago, Brisketexan said:

Counterpoint: historical habit and fixation on restoring the USSR are compelling.  Syria is a much better strategic choice.  But based on those other factors.....don't count out him pouring it all into Georgia.

Yes, this is where I see it. is Syria really sustainable if the war continues there? With a hostile Turkey? Nope.

Russia/USSR have always wanted a warm water port for a navy that has sucked since the Japs fucked them up. And he does not really need it.

Remeber the great Georgian who is still revered by many Russians was a Georgian. A few of the original Soviets were.

[Bevo 13829]

13 hours ago, atomheartbevo said:

Not that Russia could take the rest of Georgia at this point, but with Georgia veering away from Russia, with Russia potentially losing a shitload of troops in Syria and their last safe warm-water port, with the rejection in Moldova, with rumblings in some of the 'stans and Turkey starting to exert itself, I wonder if Vladimir is getting a little nervous.

 

Nah, he good.

[atomheartbevo 90550]

3 hours ago, InkaUtexas said:

Russia/USSR have always wanted a warm water port for a navy that has sucked since the Japs fucked them up. And he does not really need it.

I think they nominally need it and possibly the airfields for their African adventures. They don't have the kind of logistics chains that the US military has, and there is a huge swath of countries hostile to Moscow between Russia and Africa.  If this affects their African adventures, it affects their external revenue streams.

Also, not sure where their ships would base out of in the Mediterranean/Atlantic - otherwise they are looking at Saint Petersburg/Murmansk and that probably makes him a little nervous. 

[Chad Fuck 18094]

34 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

I think they nominally need it and possibly the airfields for their African adventures. They don't have the kind of logistics chains that the US military has, and there is a huge swath of countries hostile to Moscow between Russia and Africa.  If this affects their African adventures, it affects their external revenue streams.

Also, not sure where their ships would base out of in the Mediterranean/Atlantic - otherwise they are looking at Saint Petersburg/Murmansk and that probably makes him a little nervous. 

Probably why he wants Odessa so bad he can taste it.  

[InkaUtexas 26807]

17 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

I think they nominally need it and possibly the airfields for their African adventures. They don't have the kind of logistics chains that the US military has, and there is a huge swath of countries hostile to Moscow between Russia and Africa.  If this affects their African adventures, it affects their external revenue streams.

Also, not sure where their ships would base out of in the Mediterranean/Atlantic - otherwise they are looking at Saint Petersburg/Murmansk and that probably makes him a little nervous. 

Ships are not the big thing. Aircraft are. IL-76's are the work horse. They can do Russia to Africa.

There is 1 wildcard African nation for a new port to replace Syria. Libya. Is better placed to fuck up NATO and support their trade in the region. The Bospherous are not blocked to Russian "trade" ships so those ports on the Black Sea are

[956 Worldwide 35524]

Romania’s Constitutional Court has thrown out the results of the first round of the presidential election, won by a virtual unknown hard nationalist, pro-Kremlin candidate.  A declassified file presented to the court showed that Georgescu received extensive boosting on TikTok from sources tied to Russia. EU authorities have directed TikTok to retain all its data from that period in Romania. The electoral process resets and candidates all must register again. 
 

Quote

BUCHAREST — Romania’s top constitutional court on Friday dramatically cancelled high-stakes presidential elections after security services warned Russia was mounting “aggressive” hybrid attacks against the Eastern European country.

The court decision plunged the strategically important EU and NATO member state into political chaos, inflaming divisions that opened up after a far-right outsider came from nowhere to win the first round in the presidential contest two weeks ago.

Ultranationalist Călin Georgescu benefited from a TikTok campaign that was similar to influence operations run by the Kremlin in Ukraine and Moldova, according to declassified Romanian intelligence documents. The files said Moscow was targeting Romania as an enemy state, using “aggressive hybrid action,” a view backed by the United States.

https://www.politico.eu/article/romania-court-cancels-presidential-election-runoff-tiktok-russian-influence-calin-georgescu/

[0xdeadbeef 1695]

36 minutes ago, 956 Worldwide said:

Romania’s Constitutional Court has thrown out the results of the first round of the presidential election, won by a virtual unknown hard nationalist, pro-Kremlin candidate.  A declassified file presented to the court showed that Georgescu received extensive boosting on TikTok from sources tied to Russia. EU authorities have directed TikTok to retain all its data from that period in Romania. The electoral process resets and candidates all must register again. 
 

 

https://www.politico.eu/article/romania-court-cancels-presidential-election-runoff-tiktok-russian-influence-calin-georgescu/

Can someone explain this in a few concise sentences. Did Russia just dump a shitload of money into TikTok and it was real legitimate voters that they influenced to vote they way they wanted, or did they use illegal voters, pre stuffed ballot boxes, or incorrect vote counts?   If it was just money directed at TikTok, was it money to individual influencers to create the content they wanted, or was it money to the TikTok corporation to control what videos were shown?

  

[956 Worldwide 35524]

51 minutes ago, 0xdeadbeef said:

Can someone explain this in a few concise sentences. Did Russia just dump a shitload of money into TikTok and it was real legitimate voters that they influenced to vote they way they wanted, or did they use illegal voters, pre stuffed ballot boxes, or incorrect vote counts?   If it was just money directed at TikTok, was it money to individual influencers to create the content they wanted, or was it money to the TikTok corporation to control what videos were shown?

  

The allegation is that there were coordinated inauthentic accounts, payment to influencers, election propaganda unlabeled as such, accounts spoofing Romanian government institutions, and concealed paid promos.

https://www.rferl.org/amp/romania-russia-election-interference-tiktok/33227010.html

 

 

[Bevo 13829]

On 12/3/2024 at 4:31 PM, InkaUtexas said:

Ships are not the big thing. Aircraft are. IL-76's are the work horse. They can do Russia to Africa.

There is 1 wildcard African nation for a new port to replace Syria. Libya. Is better placed to fuck up NATO and support their trade in the region. The Bospherous are not blocked to Russian "trade" ships so those ports on the Black Sea are

 

shush

[956 Worldwide 35524]

One of the effective tactics:

1. Opaque Russia-connected entity approaches popular TokTokers and contracts for a neutral “get out the vote message”— but specifies the use of a few precise hashtags in their content. 
 

2. As the algorithm detects these hashtags are popular with the desired target audience, the unknown candidate dumps his own messaging, often unlabeled as political ads and without any actual political content, into TikTok which gets fed to the people who engaged with the get-out-the-vote content. 
 

3. The network of inauthentic accounts, up to 25,000, jumps on using the same pre-cooked hashtag and injects their support for this prior unknown candidate and/or negative messaging against mainstream, pro-West candidates. 
 

I will admit to being uneasy with tossing out an election over this stuff but if the intel is correct and a hostile intelligence service used money and deception to make their guy go viral— I don’t know what the appropriate response is if it isn’t disrupted and revealed in real time.  Shake your finger and say you’ll stop them next time (unless their proxy doesn’t let you now that he’s in charge)?

X is also really vulnerable to this tactic, FWIW.