Global Spring?

[Fudge Nuggets 19455]

On 7/8/2022 at 5:39 PM, Immaculate Vibes said:

brutal breakdown of the day to day in a broken country. 

 

Yeah, but on the bright side Dinesh Chandimal is 118 not out after day 3 of their test match against Australia.  Sri Lanka lead by 67 runs with four wickets still in hand in their first innings.

[Humble Beast 258]

Here’s a pretty thorough breakdown of the NG situation in Europe. 
 

 

[atomheartbevo 90642]

How the fuck did we miss this

 

 

[staboner 5084]

4 hours ago, Humble Beast said:

Here’s a pretty thorough breakdown of the NG situation in Europe. 
 

 

this shit is a mess of epic proportions. balls in a vice being held by a genocidal maniac with health problems. good luck. 

[Parliament 14594]

8 hours ago, atomheartbevo said:

How the fuck did we miss this

 

 

 

8 hours ago, staboner said:

this shit is a mess of epic proportions. balls in a vice being held by a genocidal maniac with health problems. good luck. 

I hope my comment isn't viewed as being divisive or political: I like living in America.

[Captainant 28534]

17 minutes ago, Parliament said:

I hope my comment isn't viewed as being divisive or political: I like living in America.

We also have our fair share of police brutality against protesters and large financial institutions exploiting wage earners to steal their life savings. But if I recall, I think you were cheering on the tear gas and rubber bullets here in the US

[atomheartbevo 90642]

[Goofyboy 3432]

So, the world is burning?

[atomheartbevo 90642]

37 minutes ago, Goofyboy said:

So, the world is burning?

Working up to boiling.  Syria, Sri Lanka, China, Parts of Africa are just the pot simmering.

[Gengs1 2583]

On 7/10/2022 at 7:42 PM, Humble Beast said:

Here’s a pretty thorough breakdown of the NG situation in Europe. 
 

 

How many times are we going have to save those pussies in Europe? The Germans just gonna freeze to death.

why aren’t they pumping shit ton of $ to bring back the nuclear power plants back online? Hell, we would probably give them some nuclear weapons to use it as fuel if they asked.

yea I know the heat on gas but if you have power, electric heaters could work for a while 

[InkaUtexas 26869]

18 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

Working up to boiling.  Syria, Sri Lanka, China, Parts of Africa are just the pot simmering.

Add to that a few places in Latin America. I call out Bolivia, Ecuador and of course Haiti. Fun times. 

[Goofyboy 3432]

Can we throw in the US Southwest, since they’re going to be really thirsty soon?

[atomheartbevo 90642]

Sri Lankan leadership ordered the military to “restore order”. 

[InkaUtexas 26869]

Sure, lets add this conflict to the mix. 

 

[Hermanator 7667]

16 hours ago, Gengs1 said:

How many times are we going have to save those pussies in Europe? The Germans just gonna freeze to death.

why aren’t they pumping shit ton of $ to bring back the nuclear power plants back online? Hell, we would probably give them some nuclear weapons to use it as fuel if they asked.

yea I know the heat on gas but if you have power, electric heaters could work for a while 

[Guest]

On 7/11/2022 at 7:45 AM, Captainant said:

We also have our fair share of police brutality against protesters and large financial institutions exploiting wage earners to steal their life savings. But if I recall, I think you were cheering on the tear gas and rubber bullets here in the US

???  There is no modern day comparison to what these Chinese are going through. Nice false equivalence, you shit stirrer. 

[Guest]

7 hours ago, Hermanator said:

Yeah that post was retarded. 

[Captainant 28534]

1 hour ago, Porterhouse said:

???  There is no modern day comparison to what these Chinese are going through. Nice false equivalence, you shit stirrer. 

Lmfao there's no modern equivalent to a ponzi con wiping out billions and billions in individual wealth in America? My late father who restarted his retirement savings after WorldCom fucked him would disagree. Or take your pick of any of the financial scam scandals over the last few decades. 

[Guest]

12 minutes ago, Captainant said:

Lmfao there's no modern equivalent to a ponzi con wiping out billions and billions in individual wealth in America? My late father who restarted his retirement savings after WorldCom fucked him would disagree. Or take your pick of any of the financial scam scandals over the last few decades. 

Massive differences: WorldCom, Enron, Madoff, Lehman - all shareholders lost EQUITY value in non-insured investments through scandals / Ponzi schemes, ensuing bankruptcies, etc. US banks don’t freeze deposits (not investment assets) with no notice, they don’t not have insurance through the FDIC, etc.  These Chinese banks just effectively took control of citizens’ deposits - not their equity ownership that they would no full well may go to $0.  This is one of many examples while, with all of our problems, it is much better to be American than in many other countries including but not limited to China.

Again, false equivalence. You didn’t think this one through (along with many others) because you wanted to politically scoreboard Parliament. 

Edited July 14, 2022 by Porterhouse

[Captainant 28534]

2 minutes ago, Porterhouse said:

Massive differences: WorldCom, Enron, Madoff, Lehman - all shareholders lost value in scandals / Ponzi schemes, ensuing bankruptcies, etc. US banks don’t freeze assets with no notice, they don’t not have insurance through the FDIC, etc.  The banks just effectively took control of citizens’ deposits - not their equity ownership that they would no full well may go to $0.  This is one of many examples while, with all of our problems, it is much better to be American than in many other countries including but not limited to China.

Again, false equivalence. You didn’t think this one through (along with many others) because you wanted to politically scoreboard Parliament. 

Did you even read that article about the frozen deposits? It was a total of $1.5 billion USD equivalent in a small portion of depositors. Not exactly turning the financial system upside down, and again, Americans have been defrauded by their banks and have their literal roofs stolen from above their heads. It's pretty recent history. 

I'm not sure why you're constantly claiming that you're some victim of politicization. 

Sorry if I hurt your feelings. The internet can be a tough place, sport

[atomheartbevo 90642]

 

[InkaUtexas 26869]

44 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

 

Don't spit on the sidewalk Mr. President. 

What are the odds someone whacks this dude? Sri Lankans don't fuck around. 

[Guest]

1 hour ago, Captainant said:

Did you even read that article about the frozen deposits? It was a total of $1.5 billion USD equivalent in a small portion of depositors. Not exactly turning the financial system upside down, and again, Americans have been defrauded by their banks and have their literal roofs stolen from above their heads. It's pretty recent history. 

I'm not sure why you're constantly claiming that you're some victim of politicization. 

Sorry if I hurt your feelings. The internet can be a tough place, sport

$1.5 billion USD is a massive massive freeze. Right now, $178 million USD is directly affected. That’d make national news if it happened here. Until you present any recent equivalent here, instead of rambling generalities about Americans losing their investments (not deposits), you SHOULD stop looking dumb. I suspect you won’t, but I’m no victim and my feelings aren’t hurt at all. Keep on entertaining me. 

[Humble Beast 258]

More Sri Lanka/Germany breakdown here. A crazy stat I had missed was Germany’s first trade deficit in 3 decades in May. Their energy policies are going to lead to industry leaving an economic powerhouse.  
 

Spoiler

“The single most exciting thing you encounter in government is competence because it's so rare.” – Daniel Patrick Moynihan

Until quite recently, Sri Lanka was a pretty good country. With a GDP-per-capita exceeding $4,000 in 2018, the World Bank classified it as an “Upper Middle-Income” nation. As benchmarks, consider that Ukraine had a GDP-per-capita of roughly $3,000 in the same year, and India about $2,000. As is widely known by now, Sri Lanka has undergone what can only be described as a complete societal collapse – its government in chaos and its desperate citizens rioting in the streets.

Much ink has been spilled over Sri Lanka’s shockingly fast breakdown. For an excellent primer on the issue, we recommend a recent Decouple podcast hosted by our friend Dr. Chris Keefer. On the show, Dr. Keefer interviews Saloni Shah, a food and agriculture analyst at The Breakthrough Institute and author of a fantastic piece published in Foreign Policy titled “In Sri Lanka, Organic Farming Went Catastrophically Wrong.” Here’s how the piece opens (emphasis added throughout):

“Faced with a deepening economic and humanitarian crisis, Sri Lanka called off an ill-conceived national experiment in organic agriculture this winter. Sri Lankan President Gotabaya Rajapaksa promised in his 2019 election campaign to transition the country’s farmers to organic agriculture over a period of 10 years. Last April, Rajapaksa’s government made good on that promise, imposing a nationwide ban on the importation and use of synthetic fertilizers and pesticides and ordering the country’s 2 million farmers to go organic.

The result was brutal and swift. Against claims that organic methods can produce comparable yields to conventional farming, domestic rice production fell 20 percent in just the first six months. Sri Lanka, long self-sufficient in rice production, has been forced to import $450 million worth of rice even as domestic prices for this staple of the national diet surged by around 50 percent. The ban also devastated the nation’s tea crop, its primary export and source of foreign exchange.”

Earlier this week, brilliant author and California gubernatorial candidate Michael Schellenberger posted an article on his Substack called “Green Dogma Behind Fall Of Sri Lanka.” Here’s the key passage:

“But the underlying reason for the fall of Sri Lanka is that its leaders fell under the spell of Western green elites peddling organic agriculture and ‘ESG,’ which refers to investments made following supposedly higher Environmental, Social, and Governance criteria. Sri Lanka has a near-perfect ESG score (98) which is higher than Sweden (96) or the United States (51).”

To some, the fact that Sri Lanka achieved a “near-perfect ESG score” and then collapsed is ironic. To us, it is causal. For all the nuanced specifics involved, including government corruption, insane fertilizer bans, and submission to foreign know-it-all experts, at its core, Sri Lanka collapsed because it flubbed its energy policy. Fertilizer and food are nothing more than derivatives of energy – rather important ones at that – and Sri Lanka stands as powerful evidence that energy is indeed life, and the absence of energy is death. As videos of Sri Lankan citizens ransacking their Presidential Palace went viral on Twitter, we could not help but feel a deep sadness. Absent a massive and urgent intervention by international aid organizations (which does not seem forthcoming), no amount of protesting will win Sri Lanka’s citizens a reprieve. Akin to passengers scrambling through the banquet halls of the Titanic, their fate is sealed. Mass starvation and unthinkable suffering undoubtedly await.

 

For more than a decade, Germany has been doing its best Rajapaksa impersonation in pursuit of its disastrous Energiewende policy, a plan meant to transition the country to a “low carbon, environmentally sound, reliable, and affordable energy supply.” Despite investing several hundred billion Euros implementing Energiewende, the plan has delivered the opposite of those things. Germany had among the most expensive electricity in the developed world prior to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, another strong causal relationship that radical environmentalists refuse to acknowledge. Germany has severely damaged its manufacturing base, eroded its geopolitical power, and risked its people’s literal future in pursuit of Energiewende. Surely, Germany is not in jeopardy of replicating Sri Lanka’s collapse, are they? While the country has a deeper buffer between it and the abyss than Sri Lanka did, it is closer than many would like to admit. Let’s dig in.

 

As Javier Blas has been warning for many months, the European electricity markets have been under severe stress. Recently, the situation has taken an extreme turn for the worse. German wholesale year-ahead electricity prices have soared to unthinkable levels, reaching €365/MWh at the time of this writing. For comparison, prices were as low as €40/MWh only a few short years ago. No economy’s manufacturing sector can withstand a ninefold increase in electricity costs, and Germany will be no different. Here’s a quote from an opinion piece Blas wrote in early June:

“The European manufacturing sector is crumbling under the weight of sustained high electricity and natural gas prices. With little prospect of relief, another wave of curtailments and closures looms.

And that’s before any rationing of natural gas, potentially later this year, in Germany in the event Russia reduces supply even further. In that scenario, many companies will have no choice but to shut down.”

A week after Blas wrote his warning, Germany published its import/export data for the month of May. In a shocking development, the country reported a monthly trade deficit for the first time in decades. For a manufacturing powerhouse like Germany, the numbers were catastrophic. Here’s how the New York Times reported it:

“For the first time in more than three decades, Germany has posted a monthly trade deficit, the most recent sign that Europe’s largest economy is facing stress because of interrupted supply chains and record energy prices linked to Russia’s war in Ukraine.

Exports have been the economic engine in Germany for years, but the steep rise in the price of energy, driven by Russia’s moves to restrict the amount of natural gas it is delivering to Europe, has driven up the price of products made in Germany.”

While we might quibble with the Times for placing all the blame at Putin’s feet – this crisis has been building for years, after all – there is no doubt that Putin can now hold Germany’s energy future hostage. With the critical natural gas pipeline Nord Stream 1 closed for annual scheduled maintenance, the world watches with bated breath to see if Putin will put the screws to his geopolitical foes. That Germany – in its ignorance and do-gooder’s hubris – handed the reigns to Putin is a scandal of historic proportions.

The situation is more dire than many realize. In addition to the problems brought on by its policy blunders, Western Europe is facing a severe heat wave and a deep drought, resulting in a concurrent increase in demand for energy and decrease in water levels at critical internal rivers used for the distribution of energy raw materials. Here’s a story posted by the Washington Post just yesterday:

“The drought matters for electricity beyond hydropower generation. Coal-fired power stations in Germany rely on waterways such as the Rhine to ship in their fuel via barges. And French nuclear plants rely on rivers for cooling. If hydropower, coal and nuclear production is disrupted, all Europe has left is wind and solar, both subject also to the vagaries of the weather — and natural gas.

The water level at Kaub, a picturesque town south of Cologne on the Rhine, is paradigmatic of the crisis. On Tuesday, the gauge stood at 104 centimeters, the lowest at this time of the year in at least 15 years. On average, the river typically flows at a level of more than two meters through the town in July. Even in 2018, when the Rhine suffered its worst drought in a century, the water level at Kaub was slightly higher it is now.”

The likely consequences of this self-inflicted doom storm are beginning to dawn on Germany’s leaders. As reports of a run on fireplaces and firewood go viral online, Germany’s social order is at risk of cracking. Add this story from the Financial Times to the category of things-we-never-thought-we’d-read-in-our-lifetime:

“Germany is rationing hot water, dimming its street lights and shutting down swimming pools as the impact of its energy crunch begins to spread from industry to offices, leisure centres and homes.

A huge increase in gas prices triggered by Russia’s move last month to sharply reduce supplies to Germany has plunged Europe’s biggest economy into its worst energy crisis since the oil price shock of 1973.

Gas importers and utilities are fighting for survival while consumer bills are going through the roof, with some warning of rising friction.

‘The situation is more than dramatic,” said Axel Gedaschko, head of the federation of German housing enterprises GdW. ‘Germany’s social peace is in great danger.’”

When countries face existential energy crises, the path forward usually involves one of three scenarios. In the best case, existing political leadership acknowledges the problem, takes accountability, and moves swiftly to reverse course. This is difficult for many politicians to do, and we have little hope that the Greens in Germany will admit defeat any time soon. Absent such decisive action, political leaders may be replaced by those who pledge to unwind the policies of their predecessors. Whether such transitions are possible, orderly, and peaceful is determined by the strength and effectiveness of the institutions in the countries involved. If neither of those scenarios unfold in time to abate the crisis, the third path looks a lot like what we are observing in Sri Lanka.

For those subject to the consequences of Germany’s Energiewende, Torschlusspanik is about to set in.

 

[Captainant 28534]

Lmao the guys y'all find on substack are something else. The Boogeyman that's caused Sri Lanka's problem is the "green elite"? Gimmeafugginbreak

[Guest]

25 minutes ago, Captainant said:

Lmao the guys y'all find on substack are something else. The Boogeyman that's caused Sri Lanka's problem is the "green elite"? Gimmeafugginbreak

Feel free to dismiss it immediately, like your CR brethren or Dutchie politicians. Thanks for ceasing your earlier terrible argument. 

[Captainant 28534]

14 minutes ago, Porterhouse said:

Feel free to dismiss it immediately, like your CR brethren or Dutchie politicians. Thanks for ceasing your earlier terrible argument. 

No, as I said earlier, Sri Lanka's problems stem from their corruption in their nation and the fact that their president has been using the country as his own personal piggy bank to build whatever project he decides was most important. That article is arguing that doing ANYTHING green is going to hurt an economy, and perpetuating that "unga bunga green bad" shibboleth that's so popular among a certain group.

Plus the article is comparing assholes to oranges. He starts his thesis out with "Sri Lanka is is a crisis because of green (organic) farming initiatives" and immediately pivots to "this is why green energy is bad". What the fuck lol? It's not well written, and is looking to scapegoat a nation's plundering by a corrupt president by throwing green policy under the bus. And it doesn't even make that argument, just does the jordan peterson thing where it implies a conclusion but leaves it to the reader to state or infer it, or deny it based on how they're feeling and who they're talking to.

Edited July 14, 2022 by Captainant

[Guest]

40 minutes ago, Captainant said:

No, as I said earlier, Sri Lanka's problems stem from their corruption in their nation and the fact that their president has been using the country as his own personal piggy bank to build whatever project he decides was most important. That article is arguing that doing ANYTHING green is going to hurt an economy, and perpetuating that "unga bunga green bad" shibboleth that's so popular among a certain group.

Plus the article is comparing assholes to oranges. He starts his thesis out with "Sri Lanka is is a crisis because of green (organic) farming initiatives" and immediately pivots to "this is why green energy is bad". What the fuck lol? It's not well written, and is looking to scapegoat a nation's plundering by a corrupt president by throwing green policy under the bus. And it doesn't even make that argument, just does the jordan peterson thing where it implies a conclusion but leaves it to the reader to state or infer it, or deny it based on how they're feeling and who they're talking to.

Ok. You just compared assholes to oranges with Chinese bank confiscation. And yours was much more egregious than the article. 

[Humble Beast 258]

1 hour ago, Captainant said:

No, as I said earlier, Sri Lanka's problems stem from their corruption in their nation and the fact that their president has been using the country as his own personal piggy bank to build whatever project he decides was most important. That article is arguing that doing ANYTHING green is going to hurt an economy, and perpetuating that "unga bunga green bad" shibboleth that's so popular among a certain group.

Plus the article is comparing assholes to oranges. He starts his thesis out with "Sri Lanka is is a crisis because of green (organic) farming initiatives" and immediately pivots to "this is why green energy is bad". What the fuck lol? It's not well written, and is looking to scapegoat a nation's plundering by a corrupt president by throwing green policy under the bus. And it doesn't even make that argument, just does the jordan peterson thing where it implies a conclusion but leaves it to the reader to state or infer it, or deny it based on how they're feeling and who they're talking to.

I think outlawing import or use of synthetic fertilizers is a long way from just “doing anything green”. 
 

Do you have any dispute with the argument that mandating organic farming was a tipping point in Sri Lanka’s decline? Or did it play just a minimal part in your mind? 

[Captainant 28534]

30 minutes ago, Humble Beast said:

I think outlawing import or use of synthetic fertilizers is a long way from just “doing anything green”. 
 

Do you have any dispute with the argument that mandating organic farming was a tipping point in Sri Lanka’s decline? Or did it play just a minimal part in your mind? 

I think the fact that the change was mandated by someone who had zero expertise in the field, and being driven by the sole autocratic president has more to do with their problems than just their fertilizer situation. I'm saying that your eagerness to scapegoat all the problems solely on green policy is causing you to overlook the failure of that country's government and its fall into autocracy. Turns out people running countries dictatorially usually don't know what they're doing. 

Bit of a missing the forest for the trees.

 

Also, lulz that yall are collecting rep from the resident neonazi linker while arguing that green policies will destroy a country. 

Edited July 14, 2022 by Captainant

[Captainant 28534]

Also, since it came up in a different thread...

37 minutes ago, VRHorn said:

Getting some Immaculate Vibes off of this @Humble Beast guy...

That you, GRUhorn/Vibes?

[nineliveslost 3003]

Why does it always have to be one extreme or the other? Is there absolutely no middle ground or compromise anymore? 

I think they are rhetorical questions...everything is a fucking fight these days 

 

 

[atomheartbevo 90642]

Speaking of extremes  44 Celsius is around 110 or so.

 

[Poe It Up 126]

It’s getting increasingly difficult to find a thread that captain’s gaping vagina hasn’t bled all over. 

[Guest]

7 minutes ago, Poe It Up said:

It’s getting increasingly difficult to find a thread that captain’s gaping vagina hasn’t bled all over. 

He doesn’t see how ridiculous he is. 

2 hours ago, Humble Beast said:

I think outlawing import or use of synthetic fertilizers is a long way from just “doing anything green”. 
 

Do you have any dispute with the argument that mandating organic farming was a tipping point in Sri Lanka’s decline? Or did it play just a minimal part in your mind? 

It played no part in his mind. Not even to read his long winded garbage answer. I’d love to hear how he’d respond to the same question but about the Dutch, which clearly don’t have a dictatorial ruling family. He cannot respond in a manner that places any capability on a leftist policy, and he’ll just accuse you of being an anti-abortionist Trump supporter - wrongly in my case - when you present facts. You know, a fucking moron. 

[bolverk 30323]

5 hours ago, Humble Beast said:

More Sri Lanka/Germany breakdown here. A crazy stat I had missed was Germany’s first trade deficit in 3 decades in May. Their energy policies are going to lead to industry leaving an economic powerhouse.  
 

  Reveal hidden contents

“The single most exciting thing you encounter in government is competence because it's so rare.” – Daniel Patrick Moynihan

Until quite recently, Sri Lanka was a pretty good country. With a GDP-per-capita exceeding $4,000 in 2018, the World Bank classified it as an “Upper Middle-Income” nation. As benchmarks, consider that Ukraine had a GDP-per-capita of roughly $3,000 in the same year, and India about $2,000. As is widely known by now, Sri Lanka has undergone what can only be described as a complete societal collapse – its government in chaos and its desperate citizens rioting in the streets.

Much ink has been spilled over Sri Lanka’s shockingly fast breakdown. For an excellent primer on the issue, we recommend a recent Decouple podcast hosted by our friend Dr. Chris Keefer. On the show, Dr. Keefer interviews Saloni Shah, a food and agriculture analyst at The Breakthrough Institute and author of a fantastic piece published in Foreign Policy titled “In Sri Lanka, Organic Farming Went Catastrophically Wrong.” Here’s how the piece opens (emphasis added throughout):

“Faced with a deepening economic and humanitarian crisis, Sri Lanka called off an ill-conceived national experiment in organic agriculture this winter. Sri Lankan President Gotabaya Rajapaksa promised in his 2019 election campaign to transition the country’s farmers to organic agriculture over a period of 10 years. Last April, Rajapaksa’s government made good on that promise, imposing a nationwide ban on the importation and use of synthetic fertilizers and pesticides and ordering the country’s 2 million farmers to go organic.

The result was brutal and swift. Against claims that organic methods can produce comparable yields to conventional farming, domestic rice production fell 20 percent in just the first six months. Sri Lanka, long self-sufficient in rice production, has been forced to import $450 million worth of rice even as domestic prices for this staple of the national diet surged by around 50 percent. The ban also devastated the nation’s tea crop, its primary export and source of foreign exchange.”

Earlier this week, brilliant author and California gubernatorial candidate Michael Schellenberger posted an article on his Substack called “Green Dogma Behind Fall Of Sri Lanka.” Here’s the key passage:

“But the underlying reason for the fall of Sri Lanka is that its leaders fell under the spell of Western green elites peddling organic agriculture and ‘ESG,’ which refers to investments made following supposedly higher Environmental, Social, and Governance criteria. Sri Lanka has a near-perfect ESG score (98) which is higher than Sweden (96) or the United States (51).”

To some, the fact that Sri Lanka achieved a “near-perfect ESG score” and then collapsed is ironic. To us, it is causal. For all the nuanced specifics involved, including government corruption, insane fertilizer bans, and submission to foreign know-it-all experts, at its core, Sri Lanka collapsed because it flubbed its energy policy. Fertilizer and food are nothing more than derivatives of energy – rather important ones at that – and Sri Lanka stands as powerful evidence that energy is indeed life, and the absence of energy is death. As videos of Sri Lankan citizens ransacking their Presidential Palace went viral on Twitter, we could not help but feel a deep sadness. Absent a massive and urgent intervention by international aid organizations (which does not seem forthcoming), no amount of protesting will win Sri Lanka’s citizens a reprieve. Akin to passengers scrambling through the banquet halls of the Titanic, their fate is sealed. Mass starvation and unthinkable suffering undoubtedly await.

 

For more than a decade, Germany has been doing its best Rajapaksa impersonation in pursuit of its disastrous Energiewende policy, a plan meant to transition the country to a “low carbon, environmentally sound, reliable, and affordable energy supply.” Despite investing several hundred billion Euros implementing Energiewende, the plan has delivered the opposite of those things. Germany had among the most expensive electricity in the developed world prior to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, another strong causal relationship that radical environmentalists refuse to acknowledge. Germany has severely damaged its manufacturing base, eroded its geopolitical power, and risked its people’s literal future in pursuit of Energiewende. Surely, Germany is not in jeopardy of replicating Sri Lanka’s collapse, are they? While the country has a deeper buffer between it and the abyss than Sri Lanka did, it is closer than many would like to admit. Let’s dig in.

 

As Javier Blas has been warning for many months, the European electricity markets have been under severe stress. Recently, the situation has taken an extreme turn for the worse. German wholesale year-ahead electricity prices have soared to unthinkable levels, reaching €365/MWh at the time of this writing. For comparison, prices were as low as €40/MWh only a few short years ago. No economy’s manufacturing sector can withstand a ninefold increase in electricity costs, and Germany will be no different. Here’s a quote from an opinion piece Blas wrote in early June:

“The European manufacturing sector is crumbling under the weight of sustained high electricity and natural gas prices. With little prospect of relief, another wave of curtailments and closures looms.

And that’s before any rationing of natural gas, potentially later this year, in Germany in the event Russia reduces supply even further. In that scenario, many companies will have no choice but to shut down.”

A week after Blas wrote his warning, Germany published its import/export data for the month of May. In a shocking development, the country reported a monthly trade deficit for the first time in decades. For a manufacturing powerhouse like Germany, the numbers were catastrophic. Here’s how the New York Times reported it:

“For the first time in more than three decades, Germany has posted a monthly trade deficit, the most recent sign that Europe’s largest economy is facing stress because of interrupted supply chains and record energy prices linked to Russia’s war in Ukraine.

Exports have been the economic engine in Germany for years, but the steep rise in the price of energy, driven by Russia’s moves to restrict the amount of natural gas it is delivering to Europe, has driven up the price of products made in Germany.”

While we might quibble with the Times for placing all the blame at Putin’s feet – this crisis has been building for years, after all – there is no doubt that Putin can now hold Germany’s energy future hostage. With the critical natural gas pipeline Nord Stream 1 closed for annual scheduled maintenance, the world watches with bated breath to see if Putin will put the screws to his geopolitical foes. That Germany – in its ignorance and do-gooder’s hubris – handed the reigns to Putin is a scandal of historic proportions.

The situation is more dire than many realize. In addition to the problems brought on by its policy blunders, Western Europe is facing a severe heat wave and a deep drought, resulting in a concurrent increase in demand for energy and decrease in water levels at critical internal rivers used for the distribution of energy raw materials. Here’s a story posted by the Washington Post just yesterday:

“The drought matters for electricity beyond hydropower generation. Coal-fired power stations in Germany rely on waterways such as the Rhine to ship in their fuel via barges. And French nuclear plants rely on rivers for cooling. If hydropower, coal and nuclear production is disrupted, all Europe has left is wind and solar, both subject also to the vagaries of the weather — and natural gas.

The water level at Kaub, a picturesque town south of Cologne on the Rhine, is paradigmatic of the crisis. On Tuesday, the gauge stood at 104 centimeters, the lowest at this time of the year in at least 15 years. On average, the river typically flows at a level of more than two meters through the town in July. Even in 2018, when the Rhine suffered its worst drought in a century, the water level at Kaub was slightly higher it is now.”

The likely consequences of this self-inflicted doom storm are beginning to dawn on Germany’s leaders. As reports of a run on fireplaces and firewood go viral online, Germany’s social order is at risk of cracking. Add this story from the Financial Times to the category of things-we-never-thought-we’d-read-in-our-lifetime:

“Germany is rationing hot water, dimming its street lights and shutting down swimming pools as the impact of its energy crunch begins to spread from industry to offices, leisure centres and homes.

A huge increase in gas prices triggered by Russia’s move last month to sharply reduce supplies to Germany has plunged Europe’s biggest economy into its worst energy crisis since the oil price shock of 1973.

Gas importers and utilities are fighting for survival while consumer bills are going through the roof, with some warning of rising friction.

‘The situation is more than dramatic,” said Axel Gedaschko, head of the federation of German housing enterprises GdW. ‘Germany’s social peace is in great danger.’”

When countries face existential energy crises, the path forward usually involves one of three scenarios. In the best case, existing political leadership acknowledges the problem, takes accountability, and moves swiftly to reverse course. This is difficult for many politicians to do, and we have little hope that the Greens in Germany will admit defeat any time soon. Absent such decisive action, political leaders may be replaced by those who pledge to unwind the policies of their predecessors. Whether such transitions are possible, orderly, and peaceful is determined by the strength and effectiveness of the institutions in the countries involved. If neither of those scenarios unfold in time to abate the crisis, the third path looks a lot like what we are observing in Sri Lanka.

For those subject to the consequences of Germany’s Energiewende, Torschlusspanik is about to set in.

 

What's it like to claim a new handle every few months? Is it a pain in the ass or does it simply slide off your back? How does it feel to know that everyone hates your guts?

[Biff Tannen 46163]

So Italy is having problems...

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/italys-government-faces-collapse-if-5-star-pulls-out-2022-07-13/

[InkaUtexas 26869]

1 minute ago, Biff Tannen said:

So Italy is having problems...

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/italys-government-faces-collapse-if-5-star-pulls-out-2022-07-13/

well it is Italy. This happens more than remembered. 

President rejected the resignation. Will get interesting, but country won't collapse. 

[Captainant 28534]

3 hours ago, Porterhouse said:

It played no part in his mind. Not even to read his long winded garbage answer. I’d love to hear how he’d respond to the same question but about the Dutch, which clearly don’t have a dictatorial ruling family. He cannot respond in a manner that places any capability on a leftist policy, and he’ll just accuse you of being an anti-abortionist Trump supporter - wrongly in my case - when you present facts. You know, a fucking moron. 

Bruh. What's happening in the Netherlands doesn't have anything to do with Sri Lankas problems. You keep spreading to more and more topics without actually addressing what I'm saying, all while claiming victimhood of politicization lmao. 

What the fuck do you want me to respond to about the Dutch? Where has that been in this thread lol, it came up once along the lines of them needing electricity because of a global energy crunch - not organic fertilizer because of the mandate of a nation's autocrat trying to cash in on a marketing trend. 

 

Sri Lanka isn't a leftist nation. There's nobody saying that it is except for the normal liars and fair and balanced sources, and that's because of a couple of "green" policies and central planning from a autocratic (and now deposed) president. Their woes aren't all from one bad harvest from a recent policy change. It's a much longer running problem than that, that stems primarily from the former presidents abuse of power and authority while in government. 

[Captainant 28534]

This is a pretty good explainer of what I mean by the country being destroyed by autocracy moreso than any one single policy. Gives some good background on the long ramp-up to how Sri Lanka ended up in the state it's in.

The country was ruled unilaterally by a single family for decades. The ruling family built huge infrastructure projects by borrowing heavily which caused a huge boom during 2006-2014. Their debt was >100% of GDP starting in like 2012. 

In the 2019 election, one brother promised tax cuts to get elected and it removed 25% of the federal revenue to service that debt. Then COVID happened. Then the Ukraine was happened - Ukraine and Russia were two of Sri Lankas biggest tourism markets. 

For fertilizer, the ruling class was worried about forex reserves which they'd spend buying fertilizer. Instead they could use locally made organic fertilizer! They fig leafed it as a green policy, but you'd have to be blind to not see the other things at work.

That's why I'm frustrated seeing it described as a failure of "green leftist policy". The country was mismanaged for decades by an autocratic leadership that is now facing the consequences of their short term minded decisions. 

The "spring" happening in Sri Lanka is their people throwing off the yoke of that corrupt autocratic government.

Edited July 15, 2022 by Captainant

[Biff Tannen 46163]

1 hour ago, Captainant said:

This is a pretty good explainer of what I mean by the country being destroy by autocracy moreso than any one single policy. Gives some good background on the long ramp-up to how Sri Lanka ended up in the state it's in.

The country was ruled unilaterally by a single family for decades. The ruling family built huge infrastructure projects by borrowing heavily which caused a huge boom during 2006-2014. Their debt was >100% of GDP starting in like 2012. 

In the 2019 election, one brother promised tax cuts to get elected and it removed 25% of the federal revenue to service that debt. Then COVID happened. Then the Ukraine was happened - Ukraine and Russia were two of Sri Lankas biggest tourism markets. 

For fertilizer, the ruling class was worried about forex reserves which they'd spend buying fertilizer. Instead they could use locally made organic fertilizer! They fig leafed it as a green policy, but you'd have to be blind to not see the other things at work.

That's why I'm frustrated seeing it described as a failure of "green leftist policy". The country was mismanaged for decades by an autocratic leadership that is now facing the consequences of their short term minded decisions. 

The "spring" happening in Sri Lanka is their people throwing off the yoke of that corrupt autocratic government.

No to mention they've been in a civil war more often than not in the past 30 years or so.  I was lucky enough to go in 2012 in a time of peace.  I'll never go again, but it's a beautiful country.

[atomheartbevo 90642]

 

[atomheartbevo 90642]

Going back to Burma.  “Manpower issues in the Burmese military (Sit-Tat) are looking so severe that yesterday, when resistance troops assaulted a hilltop Sit-Tat position in Pekon, Shan State, they found it manned only with dummies.”

 

[Parliament 14594]

Things not going well for Germany's largest gas importer.

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/07/08/gas-giant-uniper-submits-bailout-application-to-german-government.html

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/uniper-drawing-down-gas-inventories-101411681.html

 

 

 

[InkaUtexas 26869]

2 hours ago, atomheartbevo said:

 

Hearts and minds baby. 

[babysdaddy 2731]

On 7/14/2022 at 12:59 PM, Poe It Up said:

It’s getting increasingly difficult to find a thread that captain’s gaping vagina hasn’t bled all over. 

I'm not saying he's right or wrong, but he's given a few pieces of info that help other posers understand where he's coming from.  He's an early 30's tech bro whose Dad lost his shit in Worldcom.  No poster is going to change his mind given his real world experiences.  

[InkaUtexas 26869]

Great...... 

 

 

[Parliament 14594]

Has the Earth reached its limit of its human "carrying capacity?"  Serious question.

[Parliament 14594]

ETA

Sure we have plenty of resources to go around, if we got along.  Seems we can't do that.

[Bigbend1812 13059]

56 minutes ago, Parliament said:

Has the Earth reached its limit of its human "carrying capacity?"  Serious question.