Global Spring?

[Humble Beast 258]

Shutdown due to high energy prices. 

[InkaUtexas 26885]

Zimbabwe. 

 

[BrazilHorn 6844]

1 hour ago, InkaUtexas said:

Zimbabwe. 

 

Did Jenny Mcarthy vacation in Zimbabwe?

[bernorange 8385]

 

On 8/15/2022 at 9:22 AM, Brisketexan said:

Clean, safe nuclear power has to be in the mix if we are going to meaningfully decrease FF emissions.

In a sane and rational world, the calculus seems like a no brainer.  But then you look at the insanity of the Russians shelling a nuke plant in Ukraine with intent to unleash a nuclear disaster and consider the hostory of Europe and the long game calculus isn't so cut and dried.  The world got very, very lucky with Chernobyl.

[Humble Beast 258]

Rhine River talk not going away. 

 

[InkaUtexas 26885]

Can't go left, can't go right around it. Damn this is not good. This is about the Rhine. Threads merged for some reason. The below is about Ethiopia. 

Meanwhile, head of WHO is stirring shit up. Tigray is bad, and the world has not paid much attention to it. But this is interesting for him to say this after how he was so cautious about COVID. 

 

Edited August 17, 2022 by InkaUtexas

[Humble Beast 258]

On 8/11/2022 at 4:39 AM, Schulz2.0 said:

Even if China managed to take Taiwan militarily, they'd get buttfucked by sanctions. 

More evidence sanctions are overrated tool against larger nations imo. If they produce something everyone needs then it will get to market. 
 

 

 

[Schulz2.0 29280]

31 minutes ago, Humble Beast said:

More evidence sanctions are overrated tool against larger nations imo. If they produce something everyone needs then it will get to market. 
 

 

 

China isn't an exporter of food and energy. They massively import both. Their economy mainly consists of exporting products to other countries. That is very vulnerable to sanctions. There's a also plenty of evidence that, outside of energy and food, Russia's economy is getting hammered hard.

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/08/12/business/russia-economy-gdp.html

[atomheartbevo 90646]

3 hours ago, Humble Beast said:

More evidence sanctions are overrated tool against larger nations imo. If they produce something everyone needs then it will get to market. 

LMAO, Russia can’t even manufacture its high-end systems, and is looking for other countries to help manufacture their newest aircraft.

For fuck’s sake, Russia is having to pull T-62s out of storage, and is looking to Iran to help meet its needs.

The fact that Russian state TV has been so angry/angst-ridden against US and the EU speaks volumes about the shape they are in.

[SydneyCarton 49500]

13 hours ago, Humble Beast said:

More evidence sanctions are overrated tool against larger nations imo. If they produce something everyone needs then it will get to market. 
 

 

 

Just so we're clear everyone, this GREHorn's new handle, correct? Listen buddy, if sanctions don't work, and Russia is fine, then there shouldn't be any bother or push to remove sanctions, right? After all, they don't do anything. 

Now show me that graph in 5 years when Europe has vastly invested in more natural gas terminals, and Germany has a new pipeline from other areas of Europe. Think the price will make up for volume then?

Seriously, why can't you get Russia's dick out of your mouth. Maybe you can post a Greenspoint style pay stub so at least we understand. 

Edited August 18, 2022 by SydneyCarton

[Humble Beast 258]

12 hours ago, Schulz2.0 said:

China isn't an exporter of food and energy. They massively import both. Their economy mainly consists of exporting products to other countries. That is very vulnerable to sanctions. There's a also plenty of evidence that, outside of energy and food, Russia's economy is getting hammered hard.

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/08/12/business/russia-economy-gdp.html

How do you think we would stop Chinese exports? Physical blockade?
 

If Russia can re route their exports then I’m sure the #2 economy would manage. 

As far as what they import, I think if we try to sanction what they import, especially from other countries then we should expect a tit for tat there that will be extremely disruptive to the global economy and our economy. Acting like we’ll just sanction China and that will show them is naive imo. We depend on each other too much. Mutually assured destruction?
 

If we want to stop them from taking Taiwan when the time comes, we have to be ready to get our military involved directly. The Ukraine/Russia playbook will not work imo. 
 

9 hours ago, atomheartbevo said:

LMAO, Russia can’t even manufacture its high-end systems, and is looking for other countries to help manufacture their newest aircraft.

For fuck’s sake, Russia is having to pull T-62s out of storage, and is looking to Iran to help meet its needs.

The fact that Russian state TV has been so angry/angst-ridden against US and the EU speaks volumes about the shape they are in.

That’s great, but now if you want to expel them it’s going to take a massive effort. Sanctions take time to take effect and don’t always have the effect you think they will. See: Russian income/current account, and Ruble strength.
 

Also, China can prepare for sanctions. We’ve telegraphed what we’ll do. I believe they have the largest grain stockpiles in the world. I shared the article a while back about new oil shipping tankers/routes that a mystery Chinese entity is creating. All I’m saying is if you think sanctions will be a meaningful deterrent or have a big effect on the outcome of any conflict with China I think you’re mistaken. 

[Humble Beast 258]

6 minutes ago, SydneyCarton said:

Just so we're clear everyone, this GREHorn's new handle, correct? Listen buddy, if sanctions don't work, and Russia is fine, then there shouldn't be any bother or push to remove sanctions, right? After all, they don't do anything. 

Now show me that graph in 5 years when Europe has vastly invested in more natural gas terminals, and Germany has a new pipeline from other areas of Europe. Think the price will make up for volume then?

Seriously, why can't you get Russia's dick out of your mouth. Maybe you can post a Greenspoint style pay stub so at least we understand. 

They should leave sanctions in place. Russia can eabod as far as I’m concerned. My point stands that sanctions are not a game changer, especially near term when most of the action happens. To count on China getting “buttfucked by sanctions” is dumb. That was the whole point of the post, not Russia. I’m thinking about the next fight. The big one.  

[atomheartbevo 90646]

1 hour ago, Humble Beast said:

All I’m saying is if you think sanctions will be a meaningful deterrent or have a big effect on the outcome of any conflict with China I think you’re mistaken

We and other countries stop buying a lot of stuff from China, companies in China have to shut down as foreign investments are pulled.  Hundreds of million are now out of work and in the streets.

 In what world does that work out for China?  That spiffy new army they are building will have to be in the streets, keeping their own people down as people get angry and scared, except it won’t be big enough.

But if sanctions don’t work, then I’m sure you can explain to the class why China didn’t provide the military hardware that Russia asked them for.

[crash_davis 23470]

China needs commerce and trade to feed a billion people. They need Western companies to fill their manufacturing factories with orders. No orders, no revenue, no jobs, no economy, no food. I guess they could go rogue and start a war with the US and by default the entire West. They have to know they will kill their economy for immediate and long term future. All Western companies will exit China and never go back. They'll be a giant North Korea, isolated with a billion starving people. 

There is no win for anyone in a US-China war, but especially so for China.

[InkaUtexas 26885]

We won't put sanctions on China until we can weave wean ourselves of cheap plastic shit and the latest iPhone. We don't buy a lot of crap from Russia. 

Sanctions work. But it takes time and does not collapse governments. It hits economies. The sanctions vs. Iraq did not bring down Saddam and his minions. It fucked up the poorest. 

That said, we should already have sanctions ready due to the treatment of Muslims in China and their continued support for the fuckheads in Burma. 

Edited August 18, 2022 by InkaUtexas
Damn auto correct

[crash_davis 23470]

the real reason behind all this shit. just too many gotdamned people.

 

https://metro.co.uk/2022/08/16/human-population-set-to-cross-8000000000-any-day-now-17190768/

Human population set to cross 8,000,000,000 ‘any day now’

[Humble Beast 258]

1 hour ago, atomheartbevo said:

We and other countries stop buying a lot of stuff from China, companies in China have to shut down as foreign investments are pulled.  Hundreds of million are now out of work and in the streets.

 In what world does that work out for China?  That spiffy new army they are building will have to be in the streets, keeping their own people down as people get angry and scared, except it won’t be big enough.

But if sanctions don’t work, then I’m sure you can explain to the class why China didn’t provide the military hardware that Russia asked them for.

Hey I hope you’re right. I hope they don’t invade Taiwan at all.

One thing that China/Taiwan and Russia/Ukraine have in common is that it is these countries #1 geopolitical priority. Nothing else is close. So the lengths they are willing to go and what will happen are harder to predict. 
 

20 minutes ago, crash_davis said:

the real reason behind all this shit. just too many gotdamned people.

 

https://metro.co.uk/2022/08/16/human-population-set-to-cross-8000000000-any-day-now-17190768/

Human population set to cross 8,000,000,000 ‘any day now’

What a pessimistic, misguided mindset to have. Discounts human ingenuity. Has been wrong for over 200 years and will continue to be wrong. 

[crash_davis 23470]

12 minutes ago, Humble Beast said:

Hey I hope you’re right. I hope they don’t invade Taiwan at all.

One thing that China/Taiwan and Russia/Ukraine have in common is that it is these countries #1 geopolitical priority. Nothing else is close. So the lengths they are willing to go and what will happen are harder to predict. 

Don't want to turn this into a China thread but China sees itself as a superpower, THE superpower for this century and beyond. As such, it doesn't like that the US military has a heavy presence in its backyard. It's akin to Russian and China having bases and getting cozy with Latin American countries. We nip that shit in the bud. They think it's disrespectful to them that the US doesn't acknowledge Asia is their's to lead. We make the same criticisms and warnings when Russia and China make investments in Latin American countries, especially military investments.

One China fervor is renewed since they think they are THE superpower. Taiwan is the holy grail to achieving One China.

But the question everyone is asking is at what costs are they willing to achieve that? At the end of it all, they will need trade and commerce to sustain their might, THE superpower or not. Are they willing to gamble the long term security of China for the sake of achieving One China with Taiwan? I don't see that the reward is worth the risk. What's the win look like for them in a war with the US? US withdraws all military presence in Asia Pacific but China still retains all Western companies' business. That's never going to happen. 

Edited August 18, 2022 by crash_davis

[Brisketexan 106897]

8 minutes ago, crash_davis said:

But the question everyone is asking is at what costs are they willing to achieve that? At the end of it all, they will need trade and commerce to sustain their might, THE superpower or not. Are they willing to gamble the long term security of China for the sake of achieving One China with Taiwan? I don't see that the reward is worth the risk. What's the win look like for them in a war with the US? US withdraws all military presence in Asia Pacific but China still retains all Western companies' business. That's never going to happen. 

That is the determinative question.  Underlying the answer is the applicable Chinese concept of pain and suffering.  China thinks LONG.  What's 50 years of a collapsed economy and starving population and war and bloodshed if it eventually secures One China and makes the Pacific a Chinese bathtub?

[crash_davis 23470]

1 minute ago, Brisketexan said:

That is the determinative question.  Underlying the answer is the applicable Chinese concept of pain and suffering.  China thinks LONG.  What's 50 years of a collapsed economy and starving population and war and bloodshed if it eventually secures One China and makes the Pacific a Chinese bathtub?

50 years of a collapse economy means hundreds of millions die of starvation. Again, think of North Korea and all the stories of strife for this citizens. China's leadership is cruel, bit they aren't that stupid. At least I hope not.

[Schulz2.0 29280]

4 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

That is the determinative question.  Underlying the answer is the applicable Chinese concept of pain and suffering.  China thinks LONG.  What's 50 years of a collapsed economy and starving population and war and bloodshed if it eventually secures One China and makes the Pacific a Chinese bathtub?

The Chinese government wants to stay in power. Food and job shortages would make that unlikely.

[Brisketexan 106897]

Just now, crash_davis said:

50 years of a collapse economy means hundreds of millions die of starvation. Again, think of North Korea and all the stories of strife for this citizens. China's leadership is cruel, bit they aren't that stupid. At least I hope not.

Your hope has some doubt in it.  As does mine.  I think what's more determinative is the regime's calculus of whether it would survive.  The Chinese population isn't just the malleable peasants it used to be.  Work brutal deprivation on the new middle and upper class across the board?  Problem.

Just like that article on Russia noted: it doesn't matter whether the economic sanctions mean the poor rural Russians in the hinterland starve.  What matters is whether the sanctions mean that the upper and middle classes in Moscow can't get their favorite yogurt at the store.

[Humble Beast 258]

Argentina loves to protest 

good luck with demanding lower inflation. 

[Brisketexan 106897]

2 minutes ago, Humble Beast said:

Argentina loves to protest 

good luck with demanding lower inflation. 

Yeah....that's not even news.  It's Argentina.  It's a Wednesday.

[DaysOff 8209]

Been biding my time to cash in my Venezuelan bolivars for years. Alas, we stopped flying to Caracas a long time ago. Could've been redneck rich.

[Superhero 9022]

5 minutes ago, DaysOff said:

Been biding my time to cash in my Venezuelan bolivars for years. Alas, we stopped flying to Caracas a long time ago. Could've been redneck rich.

I haven't counted exactly how many bills you have. But I betcha all that will buy you a stick of gum.

[Superhero 9022]

2 hours ago, crash_davis said:

China needs commerce and trade to feed a billion people. They need Western companies to fill their manufacturing factories with orders. No orders, no revenue, no jobs, no economy, no food. I guess they could go rogue and start a war with the US and by default the entire West. They have to know they will kill their economy for immediate and long term future. All Western companies will exit China and never go back. They'll be a giant North Korea, isolated with a billion starving people. 

There is no win for anyone in a US-China war, but especially so for China.

Doing my internet "research", the Chinese are in a nationalistic fervor with us versus them mentality. They aren't quite as brainwashed as the Russians, but probably not that far behind. They could start a war with the US and justify it to their population.

And any thought that western companies will pull out of China is just a pipe dream. Russia's population is about 145 million. China's is 10x that. That's a LARGE market that western companies can not ignore.

As much as I hate the thought of one China with them "liberating" Taiwan, it's going to happen sooner than later. They'll treat it like Hong Kong and slowly take away any hope of semblance of a democracy.  I just hope I'll be able to bring my parents to the States, or they'll pass away before it happens.

[Brisketexan 106897]

8 minutes ago, Superhero said:

I haven't counted exactly how many bills you have. But I betcha all that will buy you a stick of gum.

....pre-chewed and stuck to the underside of a school desk in 1983.

[InkaUtexas 26885]

11 minutes ago, Superhero said:

I haven't counted exactly how many bills you have. But I betcha all that will buy you a stick of gum.

Or a fun night out with a campesina. 

[Superhero 9022]

4 minutes ago, InkaUtexas said:

Or a fun night out with a campesina. 

Nope. Not NEARLY enough. Like I said, maybe a stick of gum.

 

[BrazilHorn 6844]

On 8/17/2022 at 1:16 PM, InkaUtexas said:

Can't go left, can't go right around it. Damn this is not good. This is about the Rhine. Threads merged for some reason. The below is about Ethiopia. 

Meanwhile, head of WHO is stirring shit up. Tigray is bad, and the world has not paid much attention to it. But this is interesting for him to say this after how he was so cautious about COVID. 

 

Man i don't think it has anything to do with skin color but rather just fatigue at constantly hearing about drought/famine/fuck ups in Ethopia/Somalia etc

It's been going on since the "Band-Aid/We are the World" days with no end in sight. Just feels like one of those situations where no matter how much money you throw at it, nothing ever changes. I know shit all about what is going down, but I do know that it's been fucked up for decades.

[Humble Beast 258]

7 minutes ago, BrazilHorn said:

Man i don't think it has anything to do with skin color but rather just fatigue at constantly hearing about drought/famine/fuck ups in Ethopia/Somalia etc

It's been going on since the "Band-Aid/We are the World" days with no end in sight. Just feels like one of those situations where no matter how much money you throw at it, nothing ever changes. I know shit all about what is going down, but I do know that it's been fucked up for decades.

Obligatory 

 

[Humble Beast 258]

28 minutes ago, Superhero said:

Doing my internet "research", the Chinese are in a nationalistic fervor with us versus them mentality. They aren't quite as brainwashed as the Russians, but probably not that far behind. They could start a war with the US and justify it to their population.

And any thought that western companies will pull out of China is just a pipe dream. Russia's population is about 145 million. China's is 10x that. That's a LARGE market that western companies can not ignore.

As much as I hate the thought of one China with them "liberating" Taiwan, it's going to happen sooner than later. They'll treat it like Hong Kong and slowly take away any hope of semblance of a democracy.  I just hope I'll be able to bring my parents to the States, or they'll pass away before it happens.

I’m curious what you think of this older thread from a finance guy I follow with Taiwanese background. 
 

 

[SydneyCarton 49500]

2 hours ago, Humble Beast said:

Hey I hope you’re right. I hope they don’t invade Taiwan at all.

One thing that China/Taiwan and Russia/Ukraine have in common is that it is these countries #1 geopolitical priority. Nothing else is close. So the lengths they are willing to go and what will happen are harder to predict. 
 

What a pessimistic, misguided mindset to have. Discounts human ingenuity. Has been wrong for over 200 years and will continue to be wrong. 

The idea of you calling anyone else "misguided" in their mindset is quite hilarious. Almost as hilarious as you citing 200 years of 60k years of humanity, or lets called it 5000 years of "civilization" and thinking you're proving some amazing point. We have made plenty of technological advances in the past 200 years, but we still managed to blow up our planet's climate while whistling past the graveyard and I haven't really seen any worldwide solution to any worldwide problem yet. It's all spectacle or personal technology, or profit based. World Hunger, human rights, world peace, unlimited energy...but yeah, I'm sure overpopulation and resource control across hundreds of sovereign borders and governments will happen any day now. 

1 hour ago, Brisketexan said:

That is the determinative question.  Underlying the answer is the applicable Chinese concept of pain and suffering.  China thinks LONG.  What's 50 years of a collapsed economy and starving population and war and bloodshed if it eventually secures One China and makes the Pacific a Chinese bathtub?

Counterpoint: It's awfully risky to assume the people in power don't want the good life while they're in power. It's also risky to assume that Winnie the Pooh's successor will have the same fervent  devotion to playing the long game to his predecessors, even if things fucking suck while they're in power, and stay the course. Humans at their basest are selfish Me First Right Now creatures. 

1 hour ago, crash_davis said:

50 years of a collapse economy means hundreds of millions die of starvation. Again, think of North Korea and all the stories of strife for this citizens. China's leadership is cruel, bit they aren't that stupid. At least I hope not.

 

1 hour ago, Schulz2.0 said:

The Chinese government wants to stay in power. Food and job shortages would make that unlikely.

These two are closer to the mark, if I had to wager. 

Edited August 18, 2022 by SydneyCarton

[InkaUtexas 26885]

30 minutes ago, BrazilHorn said:

Man i don't think it has anything to do with skin color but rather just fatigue at constantly hearing about drought/famine/fuck ups in Ethopia/Somalia etc

It's been going on since the "Band-Aid/We are the World" days with no end in sight. Just feels like one of those situations where no matter how much money you throw at it, nothing ever changes. I know shit all about what is going down, but I do know that it's been fucked up for decades.

Yes, it has been. But the Tigray conflict could spread in all directions. Got very little attention. He is right in part, but considering the only real donors to the problem are the US, Canada and some EU countries he over looks. The UAE sells the Government of Ethiopia drones and other weapon systems. We send food. I worked a project focused on famine. There was no solution that was sustainable. 

44 minutes ago, Superhero said:

Nope. Not NEARLY enough. Like I said, maybe a stick of gum.

 

Yeah, you get her the gum..... She has not had any in a long time. 

[Humble Beast 258]

44 minutes ago, SydneyCarton said:

The idea of you calling anyone else "misguided" in their mindset is quite hilarious. Almost as hilarious as you citing 200 years of 60k years of humanity, or lets called it 5000 years of "civilization" and thinking you're proving some amazing point. We have made plenty of technological advances in the past 200 years, but we still managed to blow up our planet's climate while whistling past the graveyard and I haven't really seen any worldwide solution to any worldwide problem yet. It's all spectacle or personal technology, or profit based. World Hunger, human rights, world peace, unlimited energy...but yeah, I'm sure overpopulation and resource control across hundreds of sovereign borders and governments will happen any day now. . 

The human species is thriving more than ever at our largest population ever. To say there’s too many people is false. 
 

 

The idea that we are overpopulated is nonsense. Now do you think the above advances are worth 1 degree Celsius of temperature rise over the last 100 years or whatever? I guess that’s up to the individual. 
 

Beyond that, any debate or clarification on if the climate is “blown up” or not is better for another thread. 

[Captainant 28538]

9 minutes ago, Humble Beast said:

The idea that we are overpopulated is nonsense. Now do you think the above advances are worth 1 degree Celsius of temperature rise over the last 100 years or whatever? I guess that’s up to the individual. 

It's been more than 1 degree C over the last 100 years, we're closing in on 2.5 degrees. Which is generally agreed upon to cause a significant loss of biodiversity. 

https://www.reuters.com/business/cop/whats-difference-between-15c-2c-global-warming-2021-11-07/

It's not up to the individual. They aren't contributing the majority of the temp increase. It's the private, for profit entities that are making money hand over fist ignoring the negative externalities of their industry. The costs are socialized, and the profits are privatized. Just as free market Jesus teaches us

Edited August 18, 2022 by Captainant

[SydneyCarton 49500]

5 minutes ago, Humble Beast said:

The human species is thriving more than ever at our largest population ever. To say there’s too many people is false. 
 

 

The idea that we are overpopulated is nonsense. Now do you think the above advances are worth 1 degree Celsius of temperature rise over the last 100 years or whatever? I guess that’s up to the individual. 
 

Beyond that, any debate or clarification on if the climate is “blown up” or not is better for another thread. 

What a shitty false equivalency. "People on a average are living longer and crop yields are higher due to technological and medical advances, therefore the world and everyone in it are thriving as a result." Great, we're growing more food, but we're growing as a population, treading water to you is "thriving." And the life expectancy is too stupid for words. By the way, the US life expectancy not only is in decline, it's also in decline relative to other First World nations. THRIVING!

 

[BabaYaga 15625]

6 minutes ago, SydneyCarton said:

the US life expectancy not only is in decline, it's also in decline relative to other First World nations. THRIVING! McDonalds

 

[Gengs1 2583]

1 minute ago, BabaYaga said:

[SydneyCarton 49500]

4 minutes ago, BabaYaga said:

 

You think other countries don't have McDonalds? Well, not Russia anymore, but you get the idea. 

[BabaYaga 15625]

16 hours ago, SydneyCarton said:

You think other countries don't have McDonalds? Well, not Russia anymore, but you get the idea. 

McDonalds being the bell cow for the shitty American diet.  Point being we're becoming a country obese, diabetic, jelly-bellies.  

[SydneyCarton 49500]

7 minutes ago, BabaYaga said:

McDonalds being the bell cow for the shitty American diet.  Point being we're becoming a country obese, diabetic, jelly-bellies.  

Uh…becoming?

[Humble Beast 258]

Spoiler

Bloomberg) -- Europe’s energy crisis has claimed another victim in the power-hungry metals industry, with Norsk Hydro ASA planning to shutter an aluminum smelter in Slovakia at the end of next month.

Aluminum is one of the most energy-intensive metals to produce, and the closure of the Slovalco facility adds to growing signs of stress in Europe’s industrial economy as power prices surge to record highs. The region had already lost about half of its zinc and aluminum smelting capacity during the past year, mainly as producers dialed back output. Hydro and others are now moving to shut down plants entirely.

Europe’s energy crisis is contributing to volatile trading on the London Metal Exchange, as traders assess a slew of supply losses against the rising risk that runaway inflation and tightening monetary policy will hammer demand for industrial metals in some of the world’s top economies. Aluminum initially jumped as much as 2% Wednesday before paring gains as European markets opened on a downbeat note.

Hydro, Slovalco’s majority owner, said the closure was a response to adverse conditions including “high electricity prices, which show no signs of improvement in the short term.” The smelter was running at 60% of its 175,000-ton annual capacity and would suffer substantial losses if it continued operations beyond 2022, the Norwegian firm said. On Tuesday, Hydro said production at another aluminum plant in Norway would be impacted by a strike starting Aug. 22, adding to the strain on supplies.

Slovalco will earn about 1.6 billion krone ($165 million) selling its hedges for power, metals and raw materials over the second half of the year, it said.

Industries from fertilizer to aluminum are being crippled by soaring energy costs as Russia squeezes gas flows to Europe following its invasion of Ukraine. Benchmark power prices soared to fresh all-time highs this week as the worst energy crisis in decades looks set to persist well into next year.

The metals industry’s massive power requirements leaves it in the firing line as power prices surge and politicians push ahead with measures to cut energy usage over winter. Each ton of aluminum takes about 14 megawatt-hours of power to produce, enough to run an average UK home for more than three years. Production of zinc -- which requires about 4 megawatt-hours of power per ton -- is also under acute strain, with prices rallying sharply Tuesday after one of the region’s biggest smelters said it would suspend output next month.

“Inevitably, the high European power prices are starting to see more aggressive closures of energy-intensive metal production facilities,” Colin Hamilton, managing director for commodities research, said in an emailed note. “Many zinc smelters in Europe have been running below full capacity all year, but this is the first full closure at a major facility.”

Traders are also monitoring power issues in China, where Sichuan province -- a significant aluminum hub -- is rationing electricity amid soaring temperatures. China boosted exports in recent months to help plug the gap overseas, and a reversal in that trend could underpin prices even as risks to demand grow.

Aluminum on the LME rose 0.8% to settle at $2,411 at 5:51 p.m. in London. Zinc, which hit a two-month high Tuesday, fell 4.3%. Nickel and copper also fell.

 

 

[Brisketexan 106897]

3 minutes ago, Humble Beast said:

Aluminum on the LME rose 0.8% to settle at $2,411 at 5:51 p.m. in London.

Yeah, but those limey bastards say "aluminium," so it doesn't count.

[Humble Beast 258]

Spoiler

Europe’s industrial heartland faces a potential exodus as manufacturers of German car parts, chemicals and steel struggle to absorb power prices that rocket to new highs almost every day.

Power and gas prices in Germany more than doubled in just two months, with year-ahead electricity -- a benchmark for the continent -- soaring to 570 euros ($573) per megawatt hour. Two years ago, it was 40 euros.

“Energy inflation is way more dramatic here than elsewhere,” said Ralf Stoffels, chief executive officer of BIW Isolierstoffe GmbH, a maker of silicone parts for the auto, aerospace and appliance industries. “I fear a gradual de-industrialization of the German economy.”

The nation relied on gas from Russia to fuel its power plants and factories, but now it’s preparing for an unprecedented challenge to keep the lights on and businesses running after Russia slashed those flows. Temporary shutdowns due to high prices have been seen before, with fertilizer and steel production curbed in December and March.

Now, prices are going through an even more sustained rally that’s tightening the squeeze. European gas for next month settled Thursday at a record high of 241 euros per megawatt-hour, about 11 times higher than usual for this time of the year.

While the government is limiting the increases faced by households to some extent, businesses aren’t immune to those soaring costs, and many are set to pass on expenses to customers or even shut altogether.

“Prices are placing a heavy burden on many energy-intensive companies competing internationally,” said Matthias Ruch, a spokesman for Evonik Industries AG, the world’s second-largest chemical producer with plants in 27 countries.

The company is substituting as much as 40% of its German gas volumes with liquefied petroleum gas and coal, and passing some higher costs on to customers. But the notion of relocating is a nonstarter, a spokesman said.

 

Still, there’s evidence that Germany’s industrial position is slipping. In the first six months of this year, the volume of chemical imports rose by about 27% from the same period last year, according to government data analyzed by consultant Oxford Economics. Simultaneously, chemical production fell, with output in June down almost 8% from December.

 

“If the industry has to go to shortened work weeks and reduced pay thanks to the energy crunch, this is where I get nervous,” said Martin Devenish, a former Goldman Sachs Group Inc. managing director who now works for S-RM Intelligence & Risk Consulting Ltd. “The ingredients for social unrest are there and the risk of that is under-appreciated.”

The International Monetary Fund also said last month that Germany is set to be the worst performer in the Group of Seven nations this year due to industry’s reliance on Russian gas.

 

Europe’s largest copper producer, Hamburg-based Aurubis AG, aims to minimize gas use and pass on power costs to customers, CEO Roland Harings said Aug. 5. Sugar giant Suedzucker AG devised emergency energy plans in the event Russia completely cuts off gas supply to Germany, a spokesperson said by email.

BMW AG is stepping up its preparations for a potential shortage. The Munich-based automaker runs 37 gas-powered facilities that generate heat and electricity at plants in Germany and Austria, and it’s considering using local utilities instead.

Packaging firm Delkeskamp Verpackungswerke GmbH plans to close a paper mill in the northern city of Nortrup because of high energy costs, with 70 workers losing their jobs.

A prolonged ascent for energy prices may wind up transforming the continent’s economic landscape, said Simone Tagliapietra, senior fellow at Brussels-based think tank Bruegel.

“Some industries will go under serious stress and will have to rethink their production in Europe,” he said.

I’ve said it before, but Germany crashing is the #1 threat to international stability right now. If they go down hard, EU and the Euro are under real pressure. Interesting times.  

[atomheartbevo 90646]

https://www.cnn.com/2022/08/19/africa/hotel-explosions-mogadishu-somalia-intl/index.html
 

Quote

At least 20 people have been killed after unidentified gunmen stormed an upscale hotel in the Somali capital, Mogadishu, on Friday evening, officials said, following gunfire and large explosions in the area.

Police Major Yasin Haji told CNN at least 50 others have been injured in the ongoing attack on the Hayat Hotel.

Quote

A number of gunmen are holding hostages and still firing from inside toward security forces slowing the operation to retake control of the hotel, Haji added.

"It took us over 24 hours to end the terrorist siege at Hayat Hotel because the attackers took civilians as hostages and used them as human shields. We cleared the first and top floors. But they are still in the middle two floors," Haji said.

Doesn’t sound like they ended it, if they still have the middle floors.

Also “upscale” and “Mogadishu” are not two words you normally hear together.

[atomheartbevo 90646]

 

[atomheartbevo 90646]

Some serious explosives

 

[Parliament 14597]

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/08/19/china-issues-first-national-drought-emergency-scorching-temperatures-.html