Global Spring?

[Fudge Nuggets 19,206]

On 8/18/2022 at 1:31 PM, BrazilHorn said:

Man i don't think it has anything to do with skin color but rather just fatigue at constantly hearing about drought/famine/fuck ups in Ethopia/Somalia etc

It's been going on since the "Band-Aid/We are the World" days with no end in sight. Just feels like one of those situations where no matter how much money you throw at it, nothing ever changes. I know shit all about what is going down, but I do know that it's been fucked up for decades.

Up until the last two or three years they (Ethiopia) started to get their shit together.

[InkaUtexas 25,987]

7 hours ago, Fudge Nuggets said:

Up until the last two or three years they (Ethiopia) started to get their shit together.

Yes and no. They are pissing off their neighbors with a massive damn, and fucking up the north. We like them since they will contribute bodies to peacekeeping operations. Well sometimes. Meanwhile, this is happening next door. AQ has already hit Kenya. One day this shit will happen in Addis. I spend a lot of time focused on East Africa. Got a feeling it is about to get real. 

 

 

[Parliament 14,260]

The annual inflation rate in Argentina accelerated to 71 percent in July of 2022, the highest since 1992, from 64 percent in June and above market expectations of 70.8 percent

https://tradingeconomics.com/argentina/inflation-cpi

[Incredulity 11,675]

Anyone have first hand experience being in a country with that kind of inflation?

Do prices at the store change daily?

I guess I assume there must be a place to buy stuff that resembles a normal retail store.  

[Schulz2.0 28,960]

17 hours ago, Parliament said:

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/08/19/china-issues-first-national-drought-emergency-scorching-temperatures-.html

 

 

45*C = 113*F

34.9*C = 94.8*F

[Schulz2.0 28,960]

 

[InkaUtexas 25,987]

1 hour ago, Incredulity said:

Anyone have first hand experience being in a country with that kind of inflation?

Do prices at the store change daily?

I guess I assume there must be a place to buy stuff that resembles a normal retail store.  

Yes. Peru. Nothing had prices on it. It would fluctuate all day. I mean hourly. Made taking a chick out on a date a pain in the ass. 

And it impacts everything. Newspaper sales on the street, cost of food, beer, travel, everything. It is rough. 

[Humble Beast 258]

1 hour ago, Schulz2.0 said:

 

A little more detail here.  
 

I’m a little surprised to see they think it would only save 2% of their NG usage. The asinine part is that instead they’ll pay to import coal and burn it. Just backwards thinking to me. 

29 minutes ago, InkaUtexas said:

Yes. Peru. Nothing had prices on it. It would fluctuate all day. I mean hourly. Made taking a chick out on a date a pain in the ass. 

And it impacts everything. Newspaper sales on the street, cost of food, beer, travel, everything. It is rough. 

That is one of the underappreciated effects of inflation. If you’re uncertain about prices, or simply know they are rising rapidly, it is extremely difficult to plan things in your society. From an individual level to a corporate level decisions are made with a shorter time preference, but of course the best decisions are typically made with a long time preference. 

[Humble Beast 258]

A couple more shutdowns 

I’ve seen this one cited in a couple places, but no direct news release or quotes so not 100% sure on it. 
 

 

[Humble Beast 258]

Long thread. 
 

 

[Judge Roybeanbag 11,819]

Do you have any concerns about your rabble rousing shit getting blown up ala Russia?  

[Bevo&Pevo 5,205]

Steve Hanke is a good follow on Twitter for world economics.

[Humble Beast 258]

48 minutes ago, Judge Roybeanbag said:

Do you have any concerns about your rabble rousing shit getting blown up ala Russia?  

At first I thought this was the typical CR poster longing for me, but upon further review the tweet thread I linked was from a pro-Russian account. Despite the irrelevancy of that to the story, I tried deleting it but I’m unable to edit.
 

When I see footage online I try to link to the source footage. Here’s the original tweet I came across. 
 

If you click the tweet link on Twitter app it take you straight to the thread, not the account itself. Carry on. 
 

But no Judge, no concerns on my end. 

[Humble Beast 258]

More pain today. 
 

 

[Fudge Nuggets 19,206]

On 8/21/2022 at 11:06 AM, Incredulity said:

Anyone have first hand experience being in a country with that kind of inflation?

Do prices at the store change daily?

I guess I assume there must be a place to buy stuff that resembles a normal retail store.  

I was in Nigeria when over the course of about two months the Naira went from 150 / USD to just under 500 / USD.  Prices in most places changed weekly.  I remember going on the lash our expat hangout from about 11:00 AM to past midnight.  Entire bill between three of us came out to about $150.

[Captainant 27,680]

It's amazing to see GRUvibes get caught posting russian propaganda with no further reflection on his choice of reading material lol. I respect his commitment to the bit

[Judge Roybeanbag 11,819]

1 minute ago, Captainant said:

It's amazing to see GRUvibes get caught posting russian propaganda with no further reflection on his choice of reading material lol. I respect his commitment to the bit

Well everyone is entitled to their opinion.   Even fascist murderers.  

[atomheartbevo 89,730]

Holy shit.  China gotta do it bigger than everybody else.

 

[Superhero 8,830]

Some interesting stuff being exposed with river levels hitting record lows... 

https://www.channelnewsasia.com/asia/china-yangtze-river-receding-reveals-ancient-buddhist-statues-2890636

Quote

BEIJING: Plunging water levels of the Yangtze River have revealed a submerged island in China’s southwestern city of Chongqing and a trio of Buddhist statues on it that are believed to be 600 years old, state media Xinhua has reported.

The three statues were found on the highest part of the island reef called Foyeliang, initially identified as built during the Ming and Qing dynasties. One of the statues depicts a monk sitting on a lotus pedestal.

The Yangtze’s water levels have been falling rapidly due to a drought and a heatwave in China’s southwestern region.

Rainfall in the Yangtze basin has been around 45 per cent lower than normal since July, and high temperatures are likely to persist for at least another week, official forecasts said.

As many as 66 rivers across 34 counties in Chongqing have dried up, state broadcaster CCTV said on Friday (Aug 19).

Weeks of baking drought across Europe have also revealed long-submerged treasures.

In Spain, archaeologists have been delighted by the emergence of a prehistoric stone circle dubbed the "Spanish Stonehenge". Another of Europe's mighty rivers, the Danube, has fallen to one of its lowest levels in almost a century, exposing the hulks of more than 20 German warships sunk during World War II near Serbia's river port town of Prahovo.

 

 

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/europes-drought-exposes-ancient-stones-world-war-two-ships-waters-fall-2022-08-20/

Quote

Hunger stones
As rivers run dry in central Europe, they reveal a type of low-water mark particular to that part of the world, the so-called Hungersteine, or “hunger stones.” These rocks are only visible when water levels are extremely low. Over centuries, they have been interpreted as warning signs of imminent crop failures and even famine, and they were inscribed with dates or sayings marking the event.

The most infamous hunger stone is the one in the Czech city of Děčín (in German, Tetschen) on the Elbe, near the German border, and not just because of its enormous size. As confirmed by drawings and photographs from the early 20th century, it is inscribed, rather ominously, with the slogan: Wenn du mich siehst, dann weine — “When you see me, weep.”

That inscription possibly dates back all the way to 1616. It follows a pattern. In 1904, a stone emerged in the Spree River near the village of Trebatsch, on which was inscribed: “When you see this stone again, you’ll cry, so shallow was the water in the year 1417.”

These hunger stones are a remarkable meteorological chronicle, from the age before standardized weather observations. Most of the inscriptions date from the 15th to the 19th century. The city archives of Pirna, Germany record a stone with the year 1115 engraved on it, but its exact location is no longer known.

 

[Humble Beast 258]

 

[Humble Beast 258]

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/china-pushes-expand-power-grids-013242033.html
 

 

[Parliament 14,260]

Not trying to CR, but it seems like the US is less messed up than many countries.  How is that even possible.

[crash_davis 23,113]

3 minutes ago, Parliament said:

Not trying to CR, but it seems like the US is less messed up than many countries.  How is that even possible.

We have a shitload of oil and natural gas. Energy independence is awesome.

We have vast lands for livestock and agricultural production. 

Water is becoming an issue, but it's becoming an issue globally. Need to come up with creative efficient ways to desalinate sea water. Need is the mother of invention so I'm very hopeful we can address this issue in the next decade.

[Captainant 27,680]

5 minutes ago, Parliament said:

Not trying to CR, but it seems like the US is less messed up than many countries.  How is that even possible.

[atomheartbevo 89,730]

3 hours ago, Humble Beast said:

Pretty much all of the experts are expecting Russia to cut gas/etc. this winter to punish the West for supporting Ukraine.  It’s Putin last card to play - try to freeze civilians in Europe and force them to stop supporting Ukraine. 

[Parliament 14,260]

Not EVERYTHING going on is bad.  Looks like Australia is awash in guac.

Average single avocado prices at some Australian grocery stores are down about 30% compared with a few years ago. Grocery chains recently sold avocados for 1 Australian dollar each, equivalent to about 70 cents. That is less than half of some U.S. prices. One chain in New York City was selling them for $1.99 apiece.

Australia’s surplus is by one estimate enough to provide every resident with 22 avocados for the year. An advertising and social-media campaign is trying to persuade residents to eat more of them.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-nation-that-gave-the-world-avocado-toast-now-has-too-many-avocados-11661264152

[Humble Beast 258]

56 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

Pretty much all of the experts are expecting Russia to cut gas/etc. this winter to punish the West for supporting Ukraine.  It’s Putin last card to play - try to freeze civilians in Europe and force them to stop supporting Ukraine. 

He was always going to lean on that in the end. It’s going to cause strain on the EU. How much remains tbd. It isn’t hard to picture it causing some serious divisiveness. If your population is cold and/or hungry you start to care less what other countries think or want you to do. 
 

Again, the biggest risk this winter outside of some nuclear conflict, is Germany crashing and the EU fracturing with it. Pray for a mild winter.  

In other news

 

[Humble Beast 258]

Skyrocketing electric bills while still having prolonged shortages. Rinse, repeat 

 

 

More factory shutdowns. 
 

At some point the price of EU gas/electricity has to stop going up. With plants shutting down you are seeing demand destruction. My best guess is it keeps going up as these countries are paying whatever price they have to in order to fill storage for winter. It should deflate quite a bit when it tops. 

[atomheartbevo 89,730]

5 hours ago, Humble Beast said:

He was always going to lean on that in the end. It’s going to cause strain on the EU. How much remains tbd. It isn’t hard to picture it causing some serious divisiveness. If your population is cold and/or hungry you start to care less what other countries think or want you to do. 

Thankfully, everybody understands that it's Putin doing this, and when he tells you his plans, you listen to him, so there will be a lot more unity/whatever you want to call it. There is already a push to get infrastructure in place (shipping, etc.) to get the EU off of Russian resources.  Other countries are more than happy to fill the vacuum that Russian cutting off the EU creates, and once Russia starts doing that, the market will be such that it's worthwhile for a lot of other countries/companies to get in on that vacuum. And once those companies/countries are in there, Russia won't be able to come back a year later and say "hey sorry guys, no harm, no foul, right?"

Which leads to this: Watched one the geopolitical analysts (not Peter Zeihan) who was talking about how at this point Russia is so far behind their schedule and has suffered so many losses, that eventually their forces will basically melt away/be captured.  He talked about how Ukraine is going to be brining more forces and weapons into play - US/NATO ramping up full-blown training of Ukrainian forces to get tens of thousands of well-trained soldiers in the pipeline.  He got into how poorly equipped Russian forces were for the cold weather back in February, so it's a given that they'll be even worse off this fall.

None of that is a surprise for those who have been following it, but he brought up that the end result, possibly within a year, is that there is a good chance that Belarus's government could easily collapse and Georgia and Moldova could toss out Russian troops.  

I know that's not quite the "Global Spring" you were taking about when you started this thread, but it would be interesting if we see European/Eurasian countries gaining more security and freedom (from Russia).  If we got a Belarus that was free from Lukashenko and his thugs (and the Belarusian military and security forces are not very large), that would be fucking huge.  But that's a huge if, since Russia would send troops into Belarus (and probably just annex it at this point).

[Humble Beast 258]

33 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

Thankfully, everybody understands that it's Putin doing this, and when he tells you his plans, you listen to him, so there will be a lot more unity/whatever you want to call it. There is already a push to get infrastructure in place (shipping, etc.) to get the EU off of Russian resources.  Other countries are more than happy to fill the vacuum that Russian cutting off the EU creates, and once Russia starts doing that, the market will be such that it's worthwhile for a lot of other countries/companies to get in on that vacuum. And once those companies/countries are in there, Russia won't be able to come back a year later and say "hey sorry guys, no harm, no foul, right?"

Which leads to this: Watched one the geopolitical analysts (not Peter Zeihan) who was talking about how at this point Russia is so far behind their schedule and has suffered so many losses, that eventually their forces will basically melt away/be captured.  He talked about how Ukraine is going to be brining more forces and weapons into play - US/NATO ramping up full-blown training of Ukrainian forces to get tens of thousands of well-trained soldiers in the pipeline.  He got into how poorly equipped Russian forces were for the cold weather back in February, so it's a given that they'll be even worse off this fall.

None of that is a surprise for those who have been following it, but he brought up that the end result, possibly within a year, is that there is a good chance that Belarus's government could easily collapse and Georgia and Moldova could toss out Russian troops.  

I know that's not quite the "Global Spring" you were taking about when you started this thread, but it would be interesting if we see European/Eurasian countries gaining more security and freedom (from Russia).  If we got a Belarus that was free from Lukashenko and his thugs (and the Belarusian military and security forces are not very large), that would be fucking huge.  But that's a huge if, since Russia would send troops into Belarus (and probably just annex it at this point).

Yeah when I started the thread it was more focused on food and energy shortages leading to unrest, but Russia being destabilized and possibly Putin being unseated would be a welcome surprise and would definitely qualify for this thread. Bring it on. 
 

My only worry in your scenario is that Putin in that case will be extremely desperate. Anything is on the table. Unfortunately that’s the difference between some small time country being on the brink and a traditional power. I hope he gets taken out before we get to that point. 

[Gengs1 2,583]

14 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

Thankfully, everybody understands that it's Putin doing this, and when he tells you his plans, you listen to him, so there will be a lot more unity/whatever you want to call it. There is already a push to get infrastructure in place (shipping, etc.) to get the EU off of Russian resources.  Other countries are more than happy to fill the vacuum that Russian cutting off the EU creates, and once Russia starts doing that, the market will be such that it's worthwhile for a lot of other countries/companies to get in on that vacuum. And once those companies/countries are in there, Russia won't be able to come back a year later and say "hey sorry guys, no harm, no foul, right?"

Which leads to this: Watched one the geopolitical analysts (not Peter Zeihan) who was talking about how at this point Russia is so far behind their schedule and has suffered so many losses, that eventually their forces will basically melt away/be captured.  He talked about how Ukraine is going to be brining more forces and weapons into play - US/NATO ramping up full-blown training of Ukrainian forces to get tens of thousands of well-trained soldiers in the pipeline.  He got into how poorly equipped Russian forces were for the cold weather back in February, so it's a given that they'll be even worse off this fall.

None of that is a surprise for those who have been following it, but he brought up that the end result, possibly within a year, is that there is a good chance that Belarus's government could easily collapse and Georgia and Moldova could toss out Russian troops.  

I know that's not quite the "Global Spring" you were taking about when you started this thread, but it would be interesting if we see European/Eurasian countries gaining more security and freedom (from Russia).  If we got a Belarus that was free from Lukashenko and his thugs (and the Belarusian military and security forces are not very large), that would be fucking huge.  But that's a huge if, since Russia would send troops into Belarus (and probably just annex it at this point).

The question becomes can “Europe” survive that long with gas/electrical prices that are really high and that their industries get affected and have to shut down and lose of jobs etc?

I think Europe will fold like a house of cards before winter months and pressure Ukraine to sign a truce to stop the war. Germanys support is shit and come winter they will support Russia.

Russia will dial up the propaganda and blame Ukraine for the gas/electrical prices and it will work.

[atomheartbevo 89,730]

We are still hitting Iranian groups (or rather their allies)

 

[atomheartbevo 89,730]

 

[Poe It Up 126]

21 hours ago, Parliament said:

Not trying to CR, but it seems like the US is less messed up than many countries.  How is that even possible.

Sometimes it’s nice to stop and think about how fucking good we have it here. This thread helps. 

[BabaYaga 15,301]

12 hours ago, Gengs1 said:

The question becomes can “Europe” survive that long with gas/electrical prices that are really high and that their industries get affected and have to shut down and lose of jobs etc?

I think Europe will fold like a house of cards before winter months and pressure Ukraine to sign a truce to stop the war. Germanys support is shit and come winter they will support Russia.

Russia will dial up the propaganda and blame Ukraine for the gas/electrical prices and it will work.

This was brought up early on the Ukraine thread and is spot on.  The question was who can "suffer" the longest  And nobody out suffers the Russians. 

[BabaYaga 15,301]

11 minutes ago, Poe It Up said:

Sometimes it’s nice to stop and think about how fucking good we have it here. This thread helps. 

Winter is coming...

20M people behind on payments

Quote

The Nice household is one of some 20 million across the country—about 1 in 6 American homes—that have fallen behind on their utility bills. It is, according to the National Energy Assistance Directors Association (Neada), the worst crisis the group has ever documented. Underpinning those numbers is a blistering surge in electricity prices, propelled by the soaring cost of natural gas.

 

[atomheartbevo 89,730]

26 minutes ago, BabaYaga said:

The question was who can "suffer" the longest  And nobody out suffers the Russians. 

There are limits to their suffering. Putin doesn’t think Russians as a whole will fight for him, otherwise he would have called for a general mobilization in order to flood Ukraine with tens of thousands (or more)  of additional troops.

[Humble Beast 258]

 

[InkaUtexas 25,987]

Ruh Roh..... This is one we are watching real close. 

You are subscribed to Africa for U.S. Department of State. This information has recently been updated, and is now available.   Five Months of a Humanitarian Truce in Ethiopia 08/24/2022 06:33 PM EDT   Antony J. Blinken, Secretary of State We are concerned by reports of renewed hostilities in Ethiopia.  We call on the Government of Ethiopia and the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) to redouble efforts to advance talks to achieve a durable ceasefire without preconditions and ultimately bring a permanent end to the conflict. Over the past five months, the March 24 humanitarian truce declared by the Government of Ethiopia and reciprocated by the TPLF reduced violence and cleared the way for delivery of humanitarian assistance in the Afar, Amhara, and Tigray regions of Ethiopia.  Respect for this truce over the past five months has saved countless lives and enabled assistance to reach tens of thousands.  Recent provocations on the battlefield, bellicose rhetoric, and the lack of a durable ceasefire now threaten this progress.  They also delay the establishment of an inclusive political process to achieve progress towards common security and prosperity for all Ethiopians.  A return to active conflict would result in widespread suffering, human rights abuses, and further economic hardships, while playing into the hands of those that seek to undermine Ethiopia’s peace and security. We note the Government of Ethiopia’s establishment of a negotiating team and its stated willingness to go to talks.  We ask all parties to respect the provision of food and fuel by humanitarian actors and refrain from militarizing humanitarian relief and to work towards restoration of basic services for those in need. The United States remains fully committed to the unity, sovereignty, and territorial integrity of Ethiopia and seeks peace and stability in Ethiopia.  We stand ready to work with all Ethiopians to navigate the full range of challenges the country faces, which include overcoming an historic drought and promoting regional security.  The United States is the largest contributor of humanitarian assistance, reflecting our commitment to reach all regions and people of Ethiopia in need.  Last year, the United States provided nearly $1.2 billion in development and humanitarian support for the Ethiopian people, including not only northern Ethiopia but every corner of the country, in support of drought relief, food security, peace-building, health, education, technology transfers, and training.

[Brisketexan 105,155]

7 hours ago, BabaYaga said:

This was brought up early on the Ukraine thread and is spot on.  The question was who can "suffer" the longest  And nobody out suffers the Russians. 

Correct.....but also incorrect.  I recall reading a really good piece (by an actual Russian, IIRC) about how the folks in the hinterlands can suffer and die by the millions, and Russian policy won't budge.  They are expendable.

But when the middle and upper middle classes that populate Moscow and St. Petersburg can't find their preferred yogurt on the shelves, shit will hit the fan.  It was an exaggeration for effect, but the point is that peasants can die, and it won't move the needle.  But when the folks who are Putin's power base start being seriously inconvenienced, that will carry a shitload more weight than 5 million dead peasants.

[Humble Beast 258]

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/cf-industries-halt-ammonia-output-170534103.html
 

 

[Parliament 14,260]

Uh...with respect to folks who crave fizzy Coca Cola, that fertilizer production going offline will harm food production way more.  

[BabaYaga 15,301]

13 hours ago, Brisketexan said:

Correct.....but also incorrect.  I recall reading a really good piece (by an actual Russian, IIRC) about how the folks in the hinterlands can suffer and die by the millions, and Russian policy won't budge.  They are expendable.

But when the middle and upper middle classes that populate Moscow and St. Petersburg can't find their preferred yogurt on the shelves, shit will hit the fan.  It was an exaggeration for effect, but the point is that peasants can die, and it won't move the needle.  But when the folks who are Putin's power base start being seriously inconvenienced, that will carry a shitload more weight than 5 million dead peasants.

That's true to an extent of any society with a defined middle and upper class.  The difference is whether they have a Putin or Xi at the top that will "disappear" you with the snap of a finger.  Chinese billionaires are not immune.  Russian Oligarchs aren't either to an extent.  It's the military and IC agencies that matter......and Putin controls the FSB/KGB.  These leaders have a direct-action element against antagonistic people.  Those people short of a coordinated effort, do not

[DefinitelyNotHollywoodColt 12,301]

On 8/23/2022 at 1:34 PM, atomheartbevo said:

Pretty much all of the experts are expecting Russia to cut gas/etc. this winter to punish the West for supporting Ukraine.  It’s Putin last card to play - try to freeze civilians in Europe and force them to stop supporting Ukraine. 

And it will work. 

[Humble Beast 258]

Pretty detailed breakdown of the Euro gas situation from Bridgewater. Even once they get past short term challenges this winter, Germany especially will become less competitive industrially. Bearish for EU given that they pay for a lot of the bailouts of poorer nations. 
 

 

[Humble Beast 258]

 

[Humble Beast 258]

https://internationalaffairs.co/opinion/analysis-listening-to-european-electricity-traders-is-very-very-scary/

 

The prospect of countries shutting off cross border electricity transmission is pretty grim. 

Edited August 26, 2022 by Humble Beast

[Schulz2.0 28,960]

 

[Humble Beast 258]

 

[Humble Beast 258]

I’ve shared a lot about fertilizer/ammonia production shutdowns. Looks like it’s reached capacity down 70%.