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Global Spring?

Immaculate Vibes

By Immaculate Vibes
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PenelopeWitherspoon

PenelopeWitherspoon 18352

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41 minutes ago, DefinitelyNotHollywoodColt said:

is that 'real'? doesn't matter, we are living in s simulation.

and @PenelopeWitherspoon covid has made you super angry/borderline insane. why don't you take a break from it all?

There is a WHOLE thread that covers inflation and another that covers COVID.  This poster is a known troll who has been crowdsourced numerous times.  He’s a crypto bro and an idiot who posts known falsehoods.  This board would be better off without him.

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Yea, that's what I'm focused on right now. Nothing better than both sides-ing it after watching what those terrorists did to innocent civilians.  Looking forward to your links of videos showing I

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It’s been a serious, sometimes political debate whether a person from Taiwan should refer to themselves as Chinese from Taiwan, or Taiwanese. The current mood is to call our(?)selves Taiwanese. F

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Good God. Don't you have have a Foie Gras in Tuscany waiting for you? Or a 25 year old Silver Oak Cabernet, in Sonoma? Stay in the CR, where you belong. I'm sorry, I don't usually lash out, but you ar

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Immaculate Vibes

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15 minutes ago, PenelopeWitherspoon said:

Take it to the COVID thread.

Which one? CR? No thanks.
 

This thread is about global unrest generally and I anticipate it veering around as issues arise. Food shortages went to China which then went into their Covid zero policy. If that’s upsetting to you perhaps don’t click on this thread. Or I guess you could report it.
 

If it’s not heavily CR I don’t see the problem. I wasn’t aware that threads on Surly had to stay exactly on topic.
 

Go outside and get some fresh air. Enjoy your weekend, PW. 

 

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Macanudo

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30 minutes ago, PenelopeWitherspoon said:

Take it to the COVID thread.

Actually, I think this kind of news might be germane here.   If enough people in China start getting fed up with policy, then we might see some upheaval there.  Probably not but possible.

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FORTY NINE TO ZERO

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On 4/6/2022 at 12:01 PM, Immaculate Vibes said:

Instead of posting these videos in the 6thSJ inflation thread, I might as well start a thread here. Rising wheat prices led to unrest in 2010 and started the Arab Spring. This time there’s multiple commodities with prices going parabolic all over the globe. It’s just getting started, but unfortunately I think the outcome will be unrest on every continent. Hope I’m wrong. No CR discussion just tracking these events.  
 

Peru

 

 



The curfew was disregarded and subsequently rescinded. 
 

Greece

 

Translation for those that don’t tweet

“24-hour general strike and demonstrations in Greece against soaring prices and low wages. Public services and maritime, rail and urban transport are paralyzed in the country. Inflation reached 7.2% in Greece, a record level for 25 years.”

 

it isn’t spring in peru.  do you even southern hemisphere, bro?

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F250

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4 hours ago, RockyMountainHighHorn said:

I see no one talked about the Twinkie shortage of 2017, that really started it all. Should have seen the signs then. Except dunkaroos came back so it clouded the meek outlook. 

Things started going down hill in 2015 when Blue Bell was pulled from the shelves. The world never seemed right after that.

 

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Gatorubet

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On 4/6/2022 at 1:13 PM, fattyflattie said:

Who should I marry daddy?

Find yourself a man from a large family of gun nuts.   At the very least they’ll be beef steaks to eat, and a couple of buckets of crude oil to heat your castle…..once they attack and keep the oil and cattle baron’s place.

fify

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F250

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This is a pretty insightful thread. She touches on the vulnerability of China's food supply chain, lockdown, threat of a massive outbreak in China that would halt the global supply chain and why the Chinese will not revolt.

 

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atomheartbevo

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2 hours ago, Macanudo said:

Actually, I think this kind of news might be germane here.   If enough people in China start getting fed up with policy, then we might see some upheaval there.  Probably not but possible.

I'd be more curious about it causing more supply chain upheavals.

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956 Worldwide

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Probably deserves its own thread but Imran Khan was ousted from power in Pakistan after coalition partners and the military backed away from their support. He lost a no-confidence vote a few minutes ago, he had tried to block first by dissolving parliament and holding snap elections.  Then by simply defying a Supreme Court order to proceed with the vote.

Khan had accused the U.S. of engineering his fall.  We had certainly taken a dim view of his visit to Moscow immediately following the attack on Kyiv.  His act had been wearing thin— cozying up to the Taliban and the release of people suspected of killing Daniel Pearl.  But he really was just a shithead who got the Army angry with him. 
 

Pakistan has never had an elected PM serve a full term. 

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atomheartbevo

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Mexican President offered the voters a chance to boot him out, but he'll probably have no problem staying in office (partly tied to issues over electricity production).   Thankfully North America should be able to feed itself and a chunk of South America as well, so hopefully no "Global Spring" type events.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/mexico-e2-80-99s-president-offers-voters-the-chance-to-kick-him-out/ar-AAW1sGm

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Nearly four years after he won a landslide victory, President Andrés Manuel López Obrador is facing the kind of poll numbers that would make many politicians flinch. 

Less than one-third of Mexicans think their country is on the right track, according to a survey by El Financiero newspaper. On nearly every important issue — crime, the economy, corruption — the government’s ratings are sagging. 

And yet around 60 percent of Mexicans approve of López Obrador’s performance, polls indicate. On Sunday, the longtime leftist icon is expected to receive overwhelming support in a recall vote. 

It’s one he’s called on himself.

 

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5 hours ago, InkaUtexas said:

this is very big for so many damn reasons. Gonna watch how India and the Gulf States react. 

I don't think Florida, Alabama, Mississippi, Louisiana or Texas care that much honestly. 

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F250

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8 hours ago, atomheartbevo said:

I'd be more curious about it causing more supply chain upheavals.

A major outbreak seems inevitable which will likely muck up the global supply chain again. 22/23 is going to be a rough time with everything else going on in the world.

 

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956 Worldwide

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22 hours ago, InkaUtexas said:

this is very big for so many damn reasons. Gonna watch how India and the Gulf States react. 

Imran straight up tweeted that it was all a U.S. plot and called for protests. Massive protests across the country. Shit is wack.  I maintain the subcontinent is still the region most likely to melt down into nuclear exchanges and I think that’s true even with Russia in Ukraine.  
 

It looks like tons of people are out on the street.  Only a matter of time before bombs start going off. 
 

 

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Immaculate Vibes

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49 minutes ago, 956 Worldwide said:

Imran straight up tweeted that it was all a U.S. plot and called for protests. Massive protests across the country. Shit is wack.  I maintain the subcontinent is still the region most likely to melt down into nuclear exchanges and I think that’s true even with Russia in Ukraine.  
 

It looks like tons of people are out on the street.  Only a matter of time before bombs start going off. 
 

 

Yikes. I am deficient in knowledge of this specific part of the world outside of the Muslim/Hindu divide. Any truth to his claims against us? Why would we want him out? 

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Immaculate Vibes

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On 4/9/2022 at 2:40 PM, F250 said:

This is a pretty insightful thread. She touches on the vulnerability of China's food supply chain, lockdown, threat of a massive outbreak in China that would halt the global supply chain and why the Chinese will not revolt.

 

Thanks for sharing. Fascinating that a nation with such a shared history of food insecurity hasn’t made their food supply more resilient, even on the margins. 

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PenelopeWitherspoon

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1 hour ago, ONE YARD said:

why you being a dick?  unrest is pretty relevant to this thread. 

Because Immaculate Vibes is a fucking troll who has been crowdsourced from this site numerous times for posting falsehoods and lies.  He is rooting for Global Unrest, which is honestly, pretty fucking disgusting if you ask me.  However, again, most of his early content, there are already threads for that.  Maybe if he weren't a disingenuous cunt, then I might treat him better.

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Just now, PenelopeWitherspoon said:

Because Immaculate Vibes is a fucking troll who has been crowdsourced from this site numerous times for posting falsehoods and lies.  He is rooting for Global Unrest, which is honestly, pretty fucking disgusting if you ask me.  However, again, most of his early content, there are already threads for that.  Maybe if he weren't a disingenuous cunt, then I might treat him better.

What makes you think I’m rooting for global unrest? We’re following world events here. 

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Macanudo

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4 minutes ago, MissingInAction said:

The US is gonna be just fine. Well see an uptick in immigration from.the blighted parts of the world but thats about it.

Pretty much.  We mainly have to worry about the people who have already been here a while.

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45 minutes ago, MissingInAction said:

The US is gonna be just fine. Well see an uptick in immigration from.the blighted parts of the world but thats about it.

Which will help our demographics, but that creates problems in the home countries, where the brain drain/younger folks have migrated to the US.  That will cause all of those demographic problems that Peter Zeihan, etc. talk about. when you are left with a lot of older folks, retired or not, who are having to keep economies afloat without a large enough younger group coming up to pick up the slack.  Basically what Russia has been suffering.

We (or I should say the countries that were sending emigrants to the US) were pretty insulated from that in the past, because while we took in a lot of immigrants from various parts of Europe, those parts still saw plenty of rural families who were having lots of kids and keeping the demographics semi-stable (stable enough anyways, given how industrialization worked out, famines, land ownership changes,  etc.)

Still, what happens if we fast forward 5 or 10 or whatever years, and some smaller South America/Central American nations take an emigration hit - plenty of those countries are in the single-digit millions as far as population, and it wouldn't take much of a loss of a younger generation or two before they get in trouble.

 

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CHIEF

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2 hours ago, PenelopeWitherspoon said:

Because Immaculate Vibes is a fucking troll who has been crowdsourced from this site numerous times for posting falsehoods and lies.  He is rooting for Global Unrest, which is honestly, pretty fucking disgusting if you ask me.  However, again, most of his early content, there are already threads for that.  Maybe if he weren't a disingenuous cunt, then I might treat him better.

Good God. Don't you have have a Foie Gras in Tuscany waiting for you? Or a 25 year old Silver Oak Cabernet, in Sonoma? Stay in the CR, where you belong. I'm sorry, I don't usually lash out, but you are a petty, Barney Rubble feet...person. You are like the Bonneville Salt Flats, three miles wide and an inch deep. Stay the fuck in your lane, and don't chase people all the way to DT.  Geez.

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Moby Ric

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4 hours ago, Immaculate Vibes said:

She’s mentally ill. Literally. 

I actually proved that in the CR is a terrible place thread.  If anyone needs to take a break from here it is her.

Now that we have settled that, back to the topic at hand.

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Immaculate Vibes

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20 hours ago, 956 Worldwide said:

Imran straight up tweeted that it was all a U.S. plot and called for protests. Massive protests across the country. Shit is wack.  I maintain the subcontinent is still the region most likely to melt down into nuclear exchanges and I think that’s true even with Russia in Ukraine.  
 

It looks like tons of people are out on the street.  Only a matter of time before bombs start going off. 
 

 

 

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atomheartbevo

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On 4/6/2022 at 12:01 PM, Immaculate Vibes said:

This time there’s multiple commodities with prices going parabolic all over the globe. It’s just getting started

Started with fuel prices

https://www.cnn.com/2022/04/09/business/food-fuel-prices-political-instability/index.html

Quote

When people took to the streets in Egypt in 2011, protesters chanted about freedom and social justice — but also bread. The cost of pantry staples had jumped because of the skyrocketing price of goods like wheat, stoking fury with President Hosni Mubarak. 

Now, more than a decade after the Arab Spring, global food prices are soaring again. They had already reached their highest level on record earlier this year as the pandemic, poor weather and the climate crisis upended agriculture and threatened food security for millions of people. Then came Russia’s war in Ukraine, making the situation much worse — while also triggering a spike in the cost of the other daily essential, fuel.

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The combination could generate a wave of political instability, as people who were already frustrated with government leaders are pushed over the edge by rising costs.

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Unrest in Sri Lanka, Pakistan and Peru over the past week highlights the risks. In Sri Lanka, protests have eruptedover shortages of gas and other basic goods. Double-digit inflation in Pakistan has eroded support for Prime Minister Imran Khan, forcing him from office. At least six people have died in recent anti-government protests in Peru sparked by rising fuel prices. But political conflict isn’t expected to be limited to these countries.

“I don’t think people have felt the full impact of rising prices just yet,” said Hamish Kinnear, a Middle East and North Africa analyst at Verisk Maplecroft, a global risk consultancy.

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In the run-up to the anti-government protests that became known as the Arab Spring — which began in Tunisia in late 2010 and spread through the Middle East and North Africa in 2011 — food prices were climbing sharply. The Food Price Index from the United Nations’ Food and Agriculture Organization reached 106.7 in 2010 and jumped to 131.9 in 2011, then a record.

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Circumstances in individual countries differed, but the bigger picture was clear. Surging wheat prices were a major part of the problem.

The situation now is even worse than it was then. Global food prices have just hit a new record high. The FAO Food Price Index published Friday hit 159.3 in March, up almost 13% from February. The war in Ukraine, a major exporter of wheat, corn and vegetable oils, as well as harsh sanctions on Russia — a key producer of wheat and fertilizer — is expected to spur further price increases in the coming months.

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“Forty percent of wheat and corn exports from Ukraine go to the Middle East and Africa, which are already grappling with hunger issues, and where further food shortages or price increases could stoke social unrest,” Gilbert Houngbo, head of the International Fund for Agricultural Development, said last month. 

Adding to the pain is the surge in energy prices. Global oil prices are almost 60% higher than they were a year ago. The cost of coal and natural gas has spiked, too.

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In Lebanon, where nearly three-quarters of the population was living in poverty last year as the result of a political and economic collapse, between 70% and 80% of imported wheat comes from Russia and Ukraine. Key grain silos were also destroyed during the 2020 explosion at the Beirut port. 

And Egypt, the world’s largest buyer of wheat, is already seeing enormous pressure on its huge subsidy program for bread. The country recently set a fixed price for unsubsidized bread after prices spiked, and is trying to secure wheat imports from countries like India and Argentina instead.

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With an estimated 70% of the world’s poor living in Africa, the continent will also be “very exposed” to rising food and energy prices, Arezki said.  Droughts and conflict in countries like Ethiopia, Somalia, South Sudan and Burkina Faso have created a food security crisis for more than a quarter of the continent’s population, the International Committee of the Red Cross said this week. The situation risks getting worse in the coming months, it continued.

Political instability has already been building in parts of the continent. A series of coups have taken place in West and Central Africa since the start of 2021.

Fun few years ahead of us.

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