Global Spring?

[Schulz2.0 29297]

 

[Schulz2.0 29297]

 

[Humble Beast 258]

Government finally going to step in.

I don’t enough about the market to guess what structural reforms they could be planning. I just know it keeps going up. 

[Humble Beast 258]

Looks like it had the intended effect. 
 

 

 

[atomheartbevo 90679]

35 minutes ago, Humble Beast said:

I don’t enough about the market to guess what structural reforms they could be planning. I just know it keeps going up. 

Suppliers other than Russia.

[Humble Beast 258]

35 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

Suppliers other than Russia.

Ok. But they didn’t need to announce that. They’ve been actively pursuing that. I read it differently. Let’s see. 
 

Anyway the bailouts will still be needed. 
 

At a GDP of 3.2T that’s over 4% of GDP in potential bailouts in UK. 

 

[Brisketexan 107033]

All of the discussions of the effect of a major European war on European markets and the economy have an undercurrent of "we want to have as much of a non-wartime economy as we can during wartime."  I get the sentiment.  Who wouldn't?  Seems they are grasping that "normal" isn't possible while one of Europe's largest energy supplier is waging war against the rest of Europe (and that is exactly what Russia is doing....and Europe is wisely returning the favor).

The next two years are going to present some real hardship, and Europe is going to have to enact some wartime-like measures to get through it.  They can do that and survive.  Putin can't.

[atomheartbevo 90679]

20 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

The next two years are going to present some real hardship, and Europe is going to have to enact some wartime-like measures to get through it.  They can do that and survive.  Putin can't.

Those Poles that were lining up for coal a few posts above, if you told them that the coal they were going to heat their houses with was instead needed for killing Russians, they’d start asking questions like “do you need us to drive to Ukraine and then burn the Russians with the coal?  What do you need us to do, can we throw the coal at Russians, will that help?”

[Brisketexan 107033]

1 minute ago, atomheartbevo said:

Those Poles that were lining up for coal a few posts above, if you told them that the coal they were going to heat their houses with was instead needed for killing Russians, they’d start asking questions like “do you need us to drive to Ukraine and then burn the Russians with the coal?  What do you need us to do, can we throw the coal at Russians, will that help?”

This too.  

The Germans put themselves in quite a pickle.  You'd think they'd learn the lesson of "yeah.....deals with the Russians aren't the BEST foundation for future plans."  But I guess they need to keep touching that hot stove.

But as for the rest of the players in the West -- from the little ones like the Baltics and Finland, to mid-size like Poland, to the big players like the US and UK......they aren't going to materially alter their paths because some people in Heidelberg get cold this winter.  But....people in Heidelberg WILL get cold this winter.  It's not going to be easy, or pretty, or fun.  Shit, my kids are living in Sweden and the UK now, and I've told both of them to get a good extra blanket for this winter.  Wouldn't be surprised to see power/heat rationed.

[atomheartbevo 90679]

Some serious shit going down in Iraq 

https://www.cnn.com/2022/08/29/middleeast/al-sadr-iraq-protests-intl/index.html

Quote

Powerful Iraqi Shia cleric Muqtada al-Sadr announced on Monday that he was withdrawing from political life, triggering a new wave of protests inside Baghdad's heavily fortified Green Zone.

Hundreds of protesters stormed Iraq's Republican Palace inside the zone following the announcement, Iraqi security officials told CNN on Monday. 

The palace is where the Iraqi cabinet meets and Prime Minister Mustafa al-Kadhimi has now suspended all meetings of his government until further notice, according to a statement released by his office.

Al-Sadr said he made a decision two months ago "not to interfere in political affairs," but he was now announcing his "final retirement" from politics and shutting down all his political offices across the country, according to a statement released by his office on Monday.

 

[Humble Beast 258]

Shit is getting a little crazy. Fighting between the “peace brigade” of this Al Sadr guy and Iraqi troops. 
 

 

[Humble Beast 258]

This stuff is difficult to verify. Trying not to get ahead of everything in the initial rush like what happened in Ukraine (Snake Island, ghost of Kyiv). But if these videos and reports are true, need to look more into this Al Sadr character. Troops with allegiance to him appear to be taking charge?

 

 

Edited August 29, 2022 by Humble Beast

[Humble Beast 258]

sorry to break up into multiple posts, but trying not to Bork the thread like Ukraine one. 
 

 

[Humble Beast 258]

This is an awesome piece. Really good break down of the current geopolitical and financial situation. 
 

The world is being broken in the US led west versus sanctioned countries. He calls them Tricks. Turkey, Russia, Iran, China, North Korea. He also sees South Korea as a potentially more tenuous ally than i would’ve thought. 
 

https://plus2.credit-suisse.com/17ce71b5-5f54-4f5c-95a0-f35e70fd54d9

 

Too long to spoiler even but the ending sums it up pretty well. I’ve edited some content out in between these excerpts. 
 

“To ensure that the West wins the economic war – to overcome the risks posed by “our commodities, your problem”; “chips from our backyard, your problem”; and “our straits, your problem” – the West will have to pour trillions into four types of projects starting “yesterday”:
(1) re-arm (to defend the world order) (2) re-shore (to get around blockades) (3) re-stock and invest (commodities) (4) re-wire the grid (energy transition)”

 

“I think that the above four themes (re-arm, re-shore, re-stock, and re-wire the electric grid) will be the defining aims of industrial policy over the next five years. How much the G7 will spend on these items is an open question, but given that the global order is at stake, they will likely not be penny pinching. If Tim Geithner were in charge, he’d put “a lot of money in the window” to show who’s in charge.
And hopefully it will be like that...
...and if so, any investor will have to be mindful that the above to-do-list is:
(1) commodity intensive
(2) capital intensive
(3) interest rate insensitive (4) uninvestable for the East”

 

“Finally, uninvestability means that for certain large countries in the global East, it makes absolutely and categorically no logical sense to roll their investments in G7 debt claims. Not just because of what happened to Russia’s FX reserves, but also because rolling a $1 trillion portfolio of U.S. Treasury securities means that you will fund the West’s effort to re-arm, re-shore, re-stock, and re-wire...
...against the East.
And we are back to where we started on the cover page: Dale Copeland’s theory of trade expectations is the right frame to think about world from here, and sadly things make no sense to continue like they used to, be either from a real (trade/production) perspective or a financial (FX reserves) perspective...
...which is why Bretton Woods III is destined to happen. It’s already happening, and we will explore the Bretton Woods III topic in detail in our upcoming dispatch:”

 

 

[atomheartbevo 90679]

54 minutes ago, Humble Beast said:

But if these videos and reports are true, need to look more into this Al Sadr character. Troops with allegiance to him appear to be taking charge?

This could be an extension of the Shia/Sunni fight that's been happening for decades.

I would not be surprised if the Saudis and Iranians are involved on some level.  Our troops captured plenty of Iranians and Saudis trying to stir shit up and provide resources to various groups within Iraq after 2003.

[Superhero 9040]

China’s debt bubble about to explode.

On the real estate side, Evergrande not being able to pay back loans was just the first cracks in the dam.

Chinese people thought owning real estate was the fastest way to become wealthy. But it’s not. There are nearly 50 million unoccupied and/or unfinished units. Owners are suspecting their homes aren’t worth as much, and aren’t paying their mortgages. Developers can’t pay back the loans owed to banks which in some cases are propped up by the government.

On the foreign policy side, China has loaned poor countries money to build massive infrastructure projects they don’t need and can’t pay back.

The Chinese debt level is 275% of GDP (the US is 98%).

The financial collapse of 2008 will be an afterthought when compared to the oncoming financial crisis.

https://thehill.com/opinion/international/3619006-how-chinas-dim-prospects-may-turn-into-disaster/

[InkaUtexas 26963]

7 hours ago, Humble Beast said:

This is an awesome piece. Really good break down of the current geopolitical and financial situation. 
 

The world is being broken in the US led west versus sanctioned countries. He calls them Tricks. Turkey, Russia, Iran, China, North Korea. He also sees South Korea as a potentially more tenuous ally than i would’ve thought. 
 

https://plus2.credit-suisse.com/17ce71b5-5f54-4f5c-95a0-f35e70fd54d9

 

Too long to spoiler even but the ending sums it up pretty well. I’ve edited some content out in between these excerpts. 
 

“To ensure that the West wins the economic war – to overcome the risks posed by “our commodities, your problem”; “chips from our backyard, your problem”; and “our straits, your problem” – the West will have to pour trillions into four types of projects starting “yesterday”:
(1) re-arm (to defend the world order) (2) re-shore (to get around blockades) (3) re-stock and invest (commodities) (4) re-wire the grid (energy transition)”

 

“I think that the above four themes (re-arm, re-shore, re-stock, and re-wire the electric grid) will be the defining aims of industrial policy over the next five years. How much the G7 will spend on these items is an open question, but given that the global order is at stake, they will likely not be penny pinching. If Tim Geithner were in charge, he’d put “a lot of money in the window” to show who’s in charge.
And hopefully it will be like that...
...and if so, any investor will have to be mindful that the above to-do-list is:
(1) commodity intensive
(2) capital intensive
(3) interest rate insensitive (4) uninvestable for the East”

 

“Finally, uninvestability means that for certain large countries in the global East, it makes absolutely and categorically no logical sense to roll their investments in G7 debt claims. Not just because of what happened to Russia’s FX reserves, but also because rolling a $1 trillion portfolio of U.S. Treasury securities means that you will fund the West’s effort to re-arm, re-shore, re-stock, and re-wire...
...against the East.
And we are back to where we started on the cover page: Dale Copeland’s theory of trade expectations is the right frame to think about world from here, and sadly things make no sense to continue like they used to, be either from a real (trade/production) perspective or a financial (FX reserves) perspective...
...which is why Bretton Woods III is destined to happen. It’s already happening, and we will explore the Bretton Woods III topic in detail in our upcoming dispatch:”

 

 

Check out The Clash of Civilizations. Dude was pretty spot on. 

And yeah, all client activities in Iraq are slowed or locked down. Watch Najaf. If the shit in Basra spreads north could be interesting. 

[Humble Beast 258]

13 hours ago, Humble Beast said:

This is an awesome piece. Really good break down of the current geopolitical and financial situation. 
 

The world is being broken in the US led west versus sanctioned countries. He calls them Tricks. Turkey, Russia, Iran, China, North Korea. He also sees South Korea as a potentially more tenuous ally than i would’ve thought. 
 

https://plus2.credit-suisse.com/17ce71b5-5f54-4f5c-95a0-f35e70fd54d9

 

Too long to spoiler even but the ending sums it up pretty well. I’ve edited some content out in between these excerpts. 
 

“To ensure that the West wins the economic war – to overcome the risks posed by “our commodities, your problem”; “chips from our backyard, your problem”; and “our straits, your problem” – the West will have to pour trillions into four types of projects starting “yesterday”:
(1) re-arm (to defend the world order) (2) re-shore (to get around blockades) (3) re-stock and invest (commodities) (4) re-wire the grid (energy transition)”

 

“I think that the above four themes (re-arm, re-shore, re-stock, and re-wire the electric grid) will be the defining aims of industrial policy over the next five years. How much the G7 will spend on these items is an open question, but given that the global order is at stake, they will likely not be penny pinching. If Tim Geithner were in charge, he’d put “a lot of money in the window” to show who’s in charge.
And hopefully it will be like that...
...and if so, any investor will have to be mindful that the above to-do-list is:
(1) commodity intensive
(2) capital intensive
(3) interest rate insensitive (4) uninvestable for the East”

 

“Finally, uninvestability means that for certain large countries in the global East, it makes absolutely and categorically no logical sense to roll their investments in G7 debt claims. Not just because of what happened to Russia’s FX reserves, but also because rolling a $1 trillion portfolio of U.S. Treasury securities means that you will fund the West’s effort to re-arm, re-shore, re-stock, and re-wire...
...against the East.
And we are back to where we started on the cover page: Dale Copeland’s theory of trade expectations is the right frame to think about world from here, and sadly things make no sense to continue like they used to, be either from a real (trade/production) perspective or a financial (FX reserves) perspective...
...which is why Bretton Woods III is destined to happen. It’s already happening, and we will explore the Bretton Woods III topic in detail in our upcoming dispatch:”

 

 

Just realized the link wasn’t working. Working one in this tweet. 
 

 

 

[Humble Beast 258]

European politicians are going to need plans to deal with this asap. 
 

 

[Royalfan5 2384]

25 minutes ago, Humble Beast said:

European politicians are going to need plans to deal with this asap. 
 

 

I'm pretty sure the UK pretty explicitly asked European politicians not to deal with their problems.  

[CHIEF 5230]

On 8/29/2022 at 10:53 AM, atomheartbevo said:

Some serious shit going down in Iraq 

https://www.cnn.com/2022/08/29/middleeast/al-sadr-iraq-protests-intl/index.html

 

CHIEF

[Humble Beast 258]

 

[Humble Beast 258]

4 hours ago, Royalfan5 said:

I'm pretty sure the UK pretty explicitly asked European politicians not to deal with their problems.  

That was Ireland, but in any event I meant Europe the continent. 
 

Here is a UK example. There will societal fallout from this happening at scale. 
 

I don’t see any viable solution other than printing money and bailing people like this out to some extent. Unfortunately you can’t print more gas or more solar panels. 

[Brisketexan 107033]

You know what I love MOST about Humble Beast/GRUhorn's posts on this thread?  How they all carry the same unspoken message: "Hey Europe, if you'll just let Putin do whatever he wants, it will be easier for you."  The overlap with the Putin agenda is near-perfect.

And with GRUhorn, it always has been.

Pay attention to who you are reading, and what their goals are.

[Humble Beast 258]

12 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

You know what I love MOST about Humble Beast/GRUhorn's posts on this thread?  How they all carry the same unspoken message: "Hey Europe, if you'll just let Putin do whatever he wants, it will be easier for you."  The overlap with the Putin agenda is near-perfect.

And with GRUhorn, it always has been.

Pay attention to who you are reading, and what their goals are.

You think you’re quite the mind reader, don’t you?

I don’t think there’s anything European countries could do at this point to change the course of events. The cake is already baked, so your hallucinations about my unspoken message are moot.
 

I’m more interested in following the repercussions of the energy price spikes and resulting shortages, as well as how the international financial system evolves. It’s a dynamic situation. Your thinking is very static so I realize it can be hard to keep up. 

[Brisketexan 107033]

1 minute ago, Humble Beast said:

I don’t think there’s anything European countries could do at this point to change the course of events.

Oh, I think that's largely the case.  But you think that 1) they picked the wrong horse, and 2) they could still mitigate some of those effects by picking the other horse, and they should do so.

Your posts have repeated a theme, no matter your username, for years now.  I'm just a simple caveman, observing something and noting it for the board.  The energy and financial markets?  Definitely dynamic.  Nothing dynamic about your positions.

[Humble Beast 258]

9 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

Oh, I think that's largely the case.  But you think that 1) they picked the wrong horse, and 2) they could still mitigate some of those effects by picking the other horse, and they should do so.

Your posts have repeated a theme, no matter your username, for years now.  I'm just a simple caveman, observing something and noting it for the board.  The energy and financial markets?  Definitely dynamic.  Nothing dynamic about your positions.

Thanks again for telling me what I think. 
 

As far as my positions go and if they’re dynamic or not, I’ll just give two areas where my thinking has evolved over time. 
 

I used to be a pretty staunch free trade supporter. No restrictions. As i came to understand the effects of the resultant offshoring of jobs and hollowing out of our middle class I’ve realized protectionism has its place. 
 

Also on a semi related note, I’ve always been anti money printer as you know. I’ve come around to the idea that we will need large scale targeted fiscal stimulus to onshore every sensitive industry that we can and quickly. If we’re being honest it will support persistently high inflation and will weaken the dollar somewhat but will help ensure our national security. 
 

I don’t see how either of those are pro Putin stances, but you keep living in your fantasy world where Vlad is moving my hands on the keyboard.
 

[staboner 5098]

20 hours ago, Superhero said:

China’s debt bubble about to explode.

On the real estate side, Evergrande not being able to pay back loans was just the first cracks in the dam.

Chinese people thought owning real estate was the fastest way to become wealthy. But it’s not. There are nearly 50 million unoccupied and/or unfinished units. Owners are suspecting their homes aren’t worth as much, and aren’t paying their mortgages. Developers can’t pay back the loans owed to banks which in some cases are propped up by the government.

On the foreign policy side, China has loaned poor countries money to build massive infrastructure projects they don’t need and can’t pay back.

The Chinese debt level is 275% of GDP (the US is 98%).

The financial collapse of 2008 will be an afterthought when compared to the oncoming financial crisis.

https://thehill.com/opinion/international/3619006-how-chinas-dim-prospects-may-turn-into-disaster/

just crossposting my comment from other China thread. Yes, shit is real and getting realer by the day 

I think the situation with China is at its all time peak hairiness right now IMO. Over the last year their government has proven they are completely irrational. The decisions surrounding covid defy logic. In 2001 they are in the middle of their runway and wouldn't risk fucking that up, while now they are stuck between a rock and way too many hard spots. Real Estate, covid, manufacturing, russia, debt collapse, food and energy issues, methinks this is some shit ready to blow. Not sure at all what it will look like, but obv Taiwan is sitting there for the taking. Its not a rational action at all, but that ship seems to have sailed for the CCP during the pandemic. 

[Pescado_Rojo 19593]

3 hours ago, staboner said:

just crossposting my comment from other China thread. Yes, shit is real and getting realer by the day 

I think the situation with China is at its all time peak hairiness right now IMO. Over the last year their government has proven they are completely irrational. The decisions surrounding covid defy logic. In 2001 they are in the middle of their runway and wouldn't risk fucking that up, while now they are stuck between a rock and way too many hard spots. Real Estate, covid, manufacturing, russia, debt collapse, food and energy issues, methinks this is some shit ready to blow. Not sure at all what it will look like, but obv Taiwan is sitting there for the taking. Its not a rational action at all, but that ship seems to have sailed for the CCP during the pandemic. 

I’ve always thought China and Russia would fight it out for the resources in Siberia one day. With Russia preoccupied hitting themselves in the dick with a hammer in Ukraine, you have to think China is at least thinking about making a run at Siberia. 

[Gravy Train 976]

12 minutes ago, Pescado_Rojo said:

I’ve always thought China and Russia would fight it out for the resources in Siberia one day. With Russia preoccupied hitting themselves in the dick with a hammer in Ukraine, you have to think China is at least thinking about making a run at Siberia. 

Situation is a bit different than that with the two parties carrying different interests.  Russia has plenty of oil and gas to sell, China wants it only if it's cheap, while, at the same time, seeks other sources for diversification or to bully via Belt-and-Road investments.  I watched this last night for a little more insight:

 

[Gengs1 2583]

4 hours ago, staboner said:

just crossposting my comment from other China thread. Yes, shit is real and getting realer by the day 

I think the situation with China is at its all time peak hairiness right now IMO. Over the last year their government has proven they are completely irrational. The decisions surrounding covid defy logic. In 2001 they are in the middle of their runway and wouldn't risk fucking that up, while now they are stuck between a rock and way too many hard spots. Real Estate, covid, manufacturing, russia, debt collapse, food and energy issues, methinks this is some shit ready to blow. Not sure at all what it will look like, but obv Taiwan is sitting there for the taking. Its not a rational action at all, but that ship seems to have sailed for the CCP during the pandemic. 

I think China is suffering of one man syndrome where all decisions go through him and cannot be challenged. As we have also seen getting too old doesn’t make you smarter, usually has the opposite effect, you make dumber decisions etc. 

[Schulz2.0 29297]

European Commission preparing to intervene in the energy markets:

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2022/aug/30/wholesale-gas-prices-tumble-as-europe-prepares-to-intervene-in-energy-markets

[Nivek 17426]

China should sell Taiwan to Taiwan.

[Laxtonto 13328]

13 hours ago, staboner said:

just crossposting my comment from other China thread. Yes, shit is real and getting realer by the day 

I think the situation with China is at its all time peak hairiness right now IMO. Over the last year their government has proven they are completely irrational. The decisions surrounding covid defy logic. In 2001 they are in the middle of their runway and wouldn't risk fucking that up, while now they are stuck between a rock and way too many hard spots. Real Estate, covid, manufacturing, russia, debt collapse, food and energy issues, methinks this is some shit ready to blow. Not sure at all what it will look like, but obv Taiwan is sitting there for the taking. Its not a rational action at all, but that ship seems to have sailed for the CCP during the pandemic. 

I’ve been following the Chinese real estate bubble and debt crisis now for almost 2 years. They have had several times that they got real close to a full on bank run or housing bubble pop, but they have done surprisingly well containing all of the potential cascading madness to just foreign paper and so have really limited their internal exposure so far.

I am actually pretty impressed that they did not see a full scale implosion after Evergrande at the of 2021 and through 2022 because, even though they were the largest, there were several other major developers that were even further leveraged.
 

There have been some regional bank defaults, but so far they have limited those issues and have stopped any large scale public panic. I’m many ways COVID has blinded the common folk to the realities of their upside down real estate market and it is just now starting to significantly register in the public sentiment.

 

I have been expecting both the real estate bubble to pop and the central banks to begin defaulting to happen either late this year or early 23, but as we more farther away from Evergrande without seeing large scale contagion issues to start the bubble to pop, I am not sure what is going to be the cascading event that will get it started. 
 

It’s like monitoring a volcano that has had multiple small eruptions and everyone is questioning is this just the precursor to the big one or just it letting off steam. All the signs point to the big one,  it until it happens it is all just a guess at this point.

 

[Bateshorn 9991]

15 hours ago, Humble Beast said:

Thanks again for telling me what I think. 
 

As far as my positions go and if they’re dynamic or not, I’ll just give two areas where my thinking has evolved over time. 
 

I used to be a pretty staunch free trade supporter. No restrictions. As i came to understand the effects of the resultant offshoring of jobs and hollowing out of our middle class I’ve realized protectionism has its place. 
 

Also on a semi related note, I’ve always been anti money printer as you know. I’ve come around to the idea that we will need large scale targeted fiscal stimulus to onshore every sensitive industry that we can and quickly. If we’re being honest it will support persistently high inflation and will weaken the dollar somewhat but will help ensure our national security. 
 

I don’t see how either of those are pro Putin stances, but you keep living in your fantasy world where Vlad is moving my hands on the keyboard.
 

Let me tl:dr this reply for you:

 

[Humble Beast 258]

Spoiler

German manufacturers are halting production in response to the surge in energy prices caused by Russia’s squeeze on gas supplies, a trend the government has described as “alarming”.

Robert Habeck, economy minister, said industry had worked hard to reduce its gas consumption in recent months, partly by switching to alternative fuels like oil, making its processes more efficient and reducing output. 

But he said some companies had also “stopped production altogether” — a development he said was “alarming”.

“It’s not good news,” he said, “because it can mean that the industries in question aren’t just being restructured but are experiencing a rupture — a structural rupture, one that is happening under enormous pressure.”

Habeck said rising gas prices were affecting everyone from big industrial companies to small trading firms and the medium-sized enterprises that make up the “Mittelstand”. “Wherever energy is an important part of the business model, companies are experiencing sheer angst,” he said. 

He said the business model of large parts of German manufacturing was based on the abundance of gas from Russia that was cheaper than gas from other regions. That competitive advantage “won’t come back any time soon, if it ever comes back at all”, Habeck said.

He was speaking as Russia halted the flow of gas through the Nord Stream 1 pipeline for three days of planned maintenance. The outage comes with European countries already labouring under sharp price rises as a result of dwindling Russian supplies. Prices have more than doubled since Russian exporter Gazprom first restricted deliveries through Nord Stream 1 three months ago.

Habeck’s comments echo recent warnings from Siegfried Russwurm, head of the main German business lobby, the BDI. He said earlier this month that a lot of companies were having to shut down production because “expenses and income are no longer matched”. 

He said German companies were not only labouring under higher energy prices but also under the recent interest rate hikes in the US and the slowing growth in China, one of Germany’s largest export markets.

The pessimism was underscored by a recent survey by one of Germany’s leading economic think-tanks, the Ifo Institute, which showed that German business confidence had fallen for its third consecutive month. 

The index, based on a monthly survey of 9,000 companies, slipped to a more than two-year low of 88.5, down from 88.7 last month. 

Habeck was speaking after a cabinet away-day at the government’s guest house Schloss Meseberg, outside Berlin. Finance minister Christian Lindner said after the meeting that the government was working on a “massive” package of relief measures for hard-pressed consumers buffeted by soaring inflation and rising energy prices.

Lindner said the measures would be in the “single-digit billions” for this year and “double-digit billions” for 2023. The two previous packages of relief measures introduced in the aftermath of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine had together been worth €30bn. 

Lindner demanded reforms of the electricity market, where high gas prices were causing an automatic increase in electricity prices which was delivering windfall profits to some energy providers. 

Echoing Lindner, Habeck said it was a question of “eliminating the cause” of higher energy prices, not just softening their effects.

Bailout coming for consumers, not industry. Seems small in the “single-digit billions”. 

[Captainant 28601]

It's funny seeing GRUvibes get offended at being calling a russian mouthpiece just a page or two after posting actual russian propaganda

[Humble Beast 258]

Coming back to the energy transition. If we’re really going all in on this, this needs to be addressed yesterday. 
 

 

[InkaUtexas 26963]

11 hours ago, Gravy Train said:

Situation is a bit different than that with the two parties carrying different interests.  Russia has plenty of oil and gas to sell, China wants it only if it's cheap, while, at the same time, seeks other sources for diversification or to bully via Belt-and-Road investments.  I watched this last night for a little more insight:

 

This is very true, and it is why they continue to support the Junta in Burma. They want to get roads and pipelines done asap to counter this. We should be training, unofficially, the Karens (not to be confused with Dallas or Houston Karens), to continue to mess them up. 

Have a buddy who went over there to teach the rebels how to disable the heavy plant that is building the roads from the coast into china. Good shit.....

[Humble Beast 258]

 

[atomheartbevo 90679]

After Russia’s comments about invading Moldova this morning, as well as the Nordstream I stuff,  I have a feeling the move to energy independence is going to continue ramping up.

[InkaUtexas 26963]

Is this good? No? Are you sure? Fuck 2022. Please tell me the Texas did not sink. 

 

[atomheartbevo 90679]

 

[Humble Beast 258]

Very nice 

 

[Humble Beast 258]

Not any good options honestly.  You don’t want mass closing of small business or residents getting 10x electricity bills, but each of these measures should exacerbate the problem unless I’m mistaken. 

Price caps will hurt supply. Windfall taxes will discourage exploration (longer term effect). Subsidization/bailout payments will keep demand artificially high through winter. 

[Trey3216 15453]

On 8/18/2022 at 1:10 PM, Superhero said:

Doing my internet "research", the Chinese are in a nationalistic fervor with us versus them mentality. They aren't quite as brainwashed as the Russians, but probably not that far behind. They could start a war with the US and justify it to their population.

And any thought that western companies will pull out of China is just a pipe dream. Russia's population is about 145 million. China's is 10x that. That's a LARGE market that western companies can not ignore.

As much as I hate the thought of one China with them "liberating" Taiwan, it's going to happen sooner than later. They'll treat it like Hong Kong and slowly take away any hope of semblance of a democracy.  I just hope I'll be able to bring my parents to the States, or they'll pass away before it happens.

Western companies are already starting to drift out of China.  The more it happens, the more demand it puts on the communist regime to re-employ those people in other areas.  They're already struggling with that.  

It goes to the same logic about China owning so much US debt.  Per capita, it isn't shit.  The US has China over a barrel in that matter because in order to stay in power, aka feed their people, the Chinese govt basically has to eat US debt.  That's the facts.  They can't call in our shit, we'd just tell them to go fuck themselves.  They'd have a nasty revolution.  We'd win at the end of the day either way.  They want their power, they keep trading debt in exchange for 747's of rubber dogshit.  

[Trey3216 15453]

On 8/18/2022 at 2:59 PM, Captainant said:

It's been more than 1 degree C over the last 100 years, we're closing in on 2.5 degrees. Which is generally agreed upon to cause a significant loss of biodiversity. 

https://www.reuters.com/business/cop/whats-difference-between-15c-2c-global-warming-2021-11-07/

It's not up to the individual. They aren't contributing the majority of the temp increase. It's the private, for profit entities that are making money hand over fist ignoring the negative externalities of their industry. The costs are socialized, and the profits are privatized. Just as free market Jesus teaches us

Your retirement account disagrees with you.   

[Serak The Preparer 3484]

3 hours ago, Trey3216 said:

Your retirement account disagrees with you.   

You mean the retirement accounts that he is privately funding with his own money? That's not much of a gotcha.

[Trey3216 15453]

19 minutes ago, Serak The Preparer said:

You mean the retirement accounts that he is privately funding with his own money? That's not much of a gotcha.

And depending on “privatized profits” to generate return.  
 

your intellectual gotcha had the thoughtfulness of potato 

Edited September 1, 2022 by Trey3216

[Serak The Preparer 3484]

Good grief.

He gets a share of profits after buying share of various companies. That does not mean that profits still aren't privatized. The profits are going io people who pay into the company, either through employment or ownership.

How do his retirement accounts disagree with profits being privatized, as you claimed? Is a paycheck somehow evidence that profit isn't privatized?