Global Spring?

[BrickHorn 18,215]

On 5/13/2022 at 11:01 AM, Cajun said:

Klause Schwab thinks this thread is cute.

Just wait two weeks when our sovereignty is handed over to Tedros.

Kinetic after that.

That Dumbass Shit I Saw on Surly.

[Immaculate Vibes 114]

A good summation here country by country 

https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/surging-food-prices-fuel-protests-across-developing-world-2022-05-18/

 

[Cajun 11,705]

1 hour ago, Immaculate Vibes said:

A good summation here country by country 

https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/surging-food-prices-fuel-protests-across-developing-world-2022-05-18/

 

“That dumbass shit I read on Surly”. ~ DumberthanABrickHorn

[Cajun 11,705]

Poor BrickHorn

Edited May 22, 2022 by Cajun

[Parliament 14,227]

8 hours ago, Immaculate Vibes said:

Putting this here because it includes subsidies for fertilizer prices. Which will help support fertilizer prices globally. Which will limit supply to countries that can’t provide subsidies. 
 

 

Isn't that like a snake trying to eat his own tail?

[atomheartbevo 89,618]

https://www.barrons.com/news/criminal-leader-killed-in-tajikistan-s-east-after-clashes-police-01653232207?refsec=topics_afp-news&tesla=y

Quote

A rival of Tajikistan's authoritarian government was killed in the ex-Soviet country's restive east, police reported Sunday, after protests sparked lethal clashes between state forces and local residents of the region bordering Afghanistan and China.

Mamadbokir Mamadbokirov was killed "as a result of internal clashes of criminal groups", according to an interior ministry statement carried by the state information agency Khovar, which described Mamadbokirov as the "leader of a criminal group" in the Gorno-Badakhshan Autonomous Region.

Quote

Mamadbokirov, an influential figure in the area, was a key target for the government in an "anti-terror operation" in the region announced Wednesday after protests that included demands for the governor to step down.While authorities have blamed Mamadbokirov's death on criminal gang fights, that explanation is likely to be viewed with scepticism by the population of a region the government has long sought to bring to heel.

Gorno-Badakhshan Autonomous Region, commonly known by its Soviet-era acronym GBAO, has been a periodic flashpoint since the end of a five-year civil war in the 1990s. Mamadbokirov and other influential leaders in the region fought against the government during that conflict but were integrated into the state structures as part of the peace deal that Russia helped broker.

 

[Immaculate Vibes 114]

1 hour ago, atomheartbevo said:

https://www.barrons.com/news/criminal-leader-killed-in-tajikistan-s-east-after-clashes-police-01653232207?refsec=topics_afp-news&tesla=y

 

I appreciate the wide breadth of knowledge and content you contribute to this thread. Cheers. 
 

I don’t think we’ve mentioned Turkey much here because they’ve been in an authoritarian controlled state of disarray for a while, but these are some pretty striking numbers. 
 

And that’s the official numbers. 

[atomheartbevo 89,618]

I know very little about that part of the former Soviet Union, but I've been wondering what Russia could do if shit starts flaring up in those areas and you get anti-Russian movements taking over those areas.  Do they try and de-Nazify or preserve Russian language or culture in those areas with special military operations?

2 minutes ago, Immaculate Vibes said:

I don’t think we’ve mentioned Turkey much here because they’ve been in an authoritarian controlled state of disarray for a while, but these are some pretty striking numbers. 

As for Turkey, this kind of stuff (inflation) and their past history and future aspirations makes me wonder why they aren't going all in on pulling the bandaid and just doing everything they can to help Russia crater, including the NATO stuff, plus some other things.  It's great they are pushing a shitload of drones off the assembly line and straight to Ukraine, but there's more they can do.  The sooner Putin, etc. are out of power, and Russia stops being a fucking powder keg, the better.

[Immaculate Vibes 114]

8 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

I know very little about that part of the former Soviet Union, but I've been wondering what Russia could do if shit starts flaring up in those areas and you get anti-Russian movements taking over those areas.  Do they try and de-Nazify or preserve Russian language or culture in those areas with special military operations?

As for Turkey, this kind of stuff (inflation) and their past history and future aspirations makes me wonder why they aren't going all in on pulling the bandaid and just doing everything they can to help Russia crater, including the NATO stuff, plus some other things.  It's great they are pushing a shitload of drones off the assembly line and straight to Ukraine, but there's more they can do.  The sooner Putin, etc. are out of power, and Russia stops being a fucking powder keg, the better.

Me either but it seems to me that those countries are less important to Putin since they fall outside the original Kievan Rus. 
 

As far as Turkey, they’re such a wildcard due to their secular past, now an Islamic state, but part of NATO, and at such a strategic position geopolitically. Very interesting. 

[InkaUtexas 25,853]

Turkey still talking about NATO members. They also announced expanding their security zone in Syria by an additional 30 kilometers. 

 

[staboner 4,969]

yeah thats nerve racking for sure. turkey that is. 

Quote

Mamadbokir Mamadbokirov

[Immaculate Vibes 114]

 

[Immaculate Vibes 114]

 

[InkaUtexas 25,853]

25 minutes ago, Immaculate Vibes said:

 

Why so slow? Seems like demand would have all the farmers out there. 

[InkaUtexas 25,853]

5 minutes ago, Immaculate Vibes said:

 

Well that is not good. 

[Royalfan5 2,353]

9 minutes ago, InkaUtexas said:

Why so slow? Seems like demand would have all the farmers out there. 

Because it’s too fucking wet to plant in much of ND, MN, SD. On the other hand when it gets in, there is actually moisture unlike last year. 

[atomheartbevo 89,618]

4 hours ago, InkaUtexas said:

Turkey still talking about NATO members. They also announced expanding their security zone in Syria by an additional 30 kilometers. 

Can everybody in NATO just slide out of NATO and start a new organization without Turkey, and call it like NATOE, the North America Australasia Treaty Organization with Europe? And get Australia and New Zealand in the mix.  Hell, Japan and South Korea as well.

[MissingInAction 25,002]

18 minutes ago, Immaculate Vibes said:

 

Furk. Gonna cost $500 to get to Padre and back.

[atomheartbevo 89,618]

12 minutes ago, InkaUtexas said:

Why so slow? Seems like demand would have all the farmers out there. 

2 minutes ago, Royalfan5 said:

Because it’s too fucking wet to plant in much of ND, MN, SD. On the other hand when it gets in, there is actually moisture unlike last year. 

Yeah, that blizzard that they got late last month dumped 20-35 inches of snow over parts of that area and really fucked everything up.

[Royalfan5 2,353]

1 minute ago, atomheartbevo said:

Yeah, that blizzard that they got late last month dumped 20-35 inches of snow over parts of that area and really fucked everything up.

Also that area of the world doesn’t drain worth a good goddamn because it flows north with little drop, and the Red River Valley is flatter than a table top, so besides wondering why they stopped there the floods just slowly spread out

[Superhero 8,826]

57 minutes ago, Immaculate Vibes said:

 

$7 gas here we come.

 

I filled up on $6.399 gas yesterday. Good thing I have a gas card and my wife is driving an electric car. This is f’ing nuts. 

[atomheartbevo 89,618]

Example of what problems from Russia’s fuckery can so in just one country like Mexico.  Places like Mexico will get fucked, causing problems elsewhere

 

Edited May 24, 2022 by atomheartbevo

[F250 28,761]

4 hours ago, Immaculate Vibes said:

 

Looks like this happened months ago.

 

 

[atomheartbevo 89,618]

Mexico has nearly 130 million people.  They produce 27 million tons of corn on their own, plus importing 20 million from us.

They are #2 in corn imports behind China.

So that could be a lot of countries in Africa or the Middle East that lost corn

[Homercles 10,205]

4 hours ago, Immaculate Vibes said:

 

Steam was restored today and the plant is restarting.  
 

https://www.wbrz.com/news/exxon-shut-down-production-units-after-steam-supply-issue-flaring-likely-as-plant-restarts-today/

“Despite the weekend shutdown, Exxon said it was not expected to have a ripple effect on an already strained national fuel supply chain issue.”

So maybe ZeroHedge isn’t the best source?  Hell even Exxon replied in the Twitter feed that things are already coming back online…mixed in among all the ‘there are no coincidences, the timing is about right’ comments there.  
 

I mean…I’m not really surprised you posted that so not sure why I bothered.  

Edited May 24, 2022 by Homercles

[Parliament 14,227]

5 hours ago, Immaculate Vibes said:

 

Can confirm

[Hermanator 7,031]

23 minutes ago, RatJuul said:

We really took $3,200 from the government in exchange for crashing 401ks, $5-6 a gallon gas, higher property taxes, and 5.83% mortgage interest rates. We deserve this Spring.

What? There was no negotiation or no deal made. This was happening no matter what any of us did and that's because we do not hold politicians accountable in this country. That's the number 1 reason we are getting taken advantage of at every turn. First we're too stupid collectively to realize what would be best for the nation as a whole so subsequently we cannot demand better candidates who will follow through with it. 

[atomheartbevo 89,618]

Don’t CR this shit.

[MissingInAction 25,002]

38 minutes ago, RatJuul said:

We really took $3,200 from the government in exchange for crashing 401ks, $5-6 a gallon gas, higher property taxes, and 5.83% mortgage interest rates. We deserve this Spring.

You can't be this stupid.

[InkaUtexas 25,853]

5 hours ago, atomheartbevo said:

Example of what problems from Russia’s fuckery can so in just one country like Mexico.  Places like Mexico will get fucked, causing problems elsewhere

 

Damn. Now add Central America pls. I was promised there would be no math. 

[InkaUtexas 25,853]

3 hours ago, RatJuul said:

We really took $3,200 from the government in exchange for crashing 401ks, $5-6 a gallon gas, higher property taxes, and 5.83% mortgage interest rates. We deserve this Spring.

Do you live in Katy and went to the much (self) vaunted place near Bryan? 

There is a CR for this type of discussion. Here we discuss the news and events. 

hehehe, wait until Spring 2023. Shits gonna be real. 

[Homercles 10,205]

6 hours ago, RatJuul said:

We really took $3,200 from the government in exchange for crashing 401ks, $5-6 a gallon gas, higher property taxes, and 5.83% mortgage interest rates. We deserve this Spring.

Yes.  Despite bulk of the posts being about pending global issues such as wheat production in Ukraine and a food crisis in India…this is entirely localized in the United States, driven solely by government handouts, as we rapidly devolve into a commie socialist welfare state.  

[956 Worldwide 34,695]

On 5/23/2022 at 3:12 AM, atomheartbevo said:

I know very little about that part of the former Soviet Union, but I've been wondering what Russia could do if shit starts flaring up in those areas and you get anti-Russian movements taking over those areas.  Do they try and de-Nazify or preserve Russian language or culture in those areas with special military operations?

As for Turkey, this kind of stuff (inflation) and their past history and future aspirations makes me wonder why they aren't going all in on pulling the bandaid and just doing everything they can to help Russia crater, including the NATO stuff, plus some other things.  It's great they are pushing a shitload of drones off the assembly line and straight to Ukraine, but there's more they can do.  The sooner Putin, etc. are out of power, and Russia stops being a fucking powder keg, the better.

I lived and worked in the post-Soviet stans for a few years. Aside from northern Kazakhstan, there aren’t really any Russian enclaves. Reverse migration hit hard and it never was as Russified as the western and far eastern corners of empire. That’s not to say that Russia doesn’t have an intense interest there or that they aren’t strategically important. We saw that with how hard they worked to get the U.S. out of Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan during the GWOT days. 
 

Intervention there will look different, along the lines of what we saw in Kazakhstan this year. (Remember that happened? Crazy, right?) They will work to ensure that pliant authoritarian regimes remain in control and remain reliant on Russia as the preferred security partner.  They will work to ensure no Islamist outbreaks gain traction, which goes hand in hand with the first goal. Russia has intervened in this way multiple times since the collapse of the USSR, we just have rarely paid attention to what happens at the real ends of the earth. 
 

The interesting bit will be the contours of possible China competition. Russia has been content to let China rapidly expand economic dominance but China has been careful not to step on Russian security and even cultural primacy. But how long can that last? 
 

Part of the issue is that aside from extractive industries, this whole part of the world offers lots of potential instability and little prize for any foreign power that tries to exert direct control.  It’s all Great Game country. 

[atomheartbevo 89,618]

1 hour ago, 956 Worldwide said:

Intervention there will look different, along the lines of what we saw in Kazakhstan this year. (Remember that happened? Crazy, right?) 

Damn that seems like so long ago.

[atomheartbevo 89,618]

https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/russia-is-winning-from-the-global-food-crisis-it-helped-create-1.1769842

Quote

Russia’s war against Ukraine, while deepening a global food crisis, has made the invader among the biggest winners of the mess it helped create. The war has blocked Ukraine’s grain exports by sea, cutting off vital supplies for countries from Somalia to Egypt. The disruption, topped by hot weather and droughts that are hurting wheat crops in other parts of the world, has sent prices of the grain to near-record highs and is threatening hunger in parts of the Middle East and North Africa. 

Russia has continued to ship its wheat at the now-higher price, finding willing buyers and raking in more revenues per ton. It is also expecting a bumper wheat crop in the next season, suggesting it will continue to profit from the situation. Global wheat prices have risen by more than 50% this year, and the Kremlin has collected $1.9 billion in revenues from wheat export taxes so far this season, according to estimates from agricultural consultant SovEcon. 

Quote

“This is using food as a weapon of war through global leverage rather than directly attacking a population,” said Tim Benton, Research Director for Emerging Risks at Chatham House, alluding to Russian comments that it would only unblock the Ukranian port of Odesa if sanctions are relaxed.  “From a political perspective we are in a kind of new place because of the importance of grain markets.''

By blocking Ukraine’s ports, Russia has forced that country to try and ship grain by land, resulting in exports of only about a quarter of its usual potential volumes.    

Quote

“Failure to open up the ports is a declaration of war on global food security,” David Beasley, the head of the United Nations’ World Food Program, said at the World Economic Forum in Davos on Monday. Beasley said the lack of access to food may spur millions of people to migrate.

Every 1% increase in hunger results in a 2% increase in migration, he said, noting that 49 million people were “knocking on famine’s door” in 43 countries. “Those are the 43 countries we’ve got to be extremely concerned about that will result in destabilization and mass migration if we don’t get ahead of this,” he said.

40+ countries could be suffering.

[Immaculate Vibes 114]

8 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/russia-is-winning-from-the-global-food-crisis-it-helped-create-1.1769842

40+ countries could be suffering.

That’s terrible. Hunger, more migration, more destabilization of Europe on deck. 

[atomheartbevo 89,618]

There's a point where the saber rattling just makes you look weak and childish.

[MissingInAction 25,002]

Putting their shitastic Russian made shit boxes on display? 

Go right ahead.

[atomheartbevo 89,618]

17 minutes ago, MissingInAction said:

Putting their shitastic Russian made shit boxes on display? 

Go right ahead.

Built in the 80s under the Soviets so there’s a chance they actually work.  

[InkaUtexas 25,853]

10 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

Built in the 80s under the Soviets so there’s a chance they actually work.  

And probably in the Ukraine. However, since the end of the USSR, maintained by Orcs paid by Oligarchs. 

[CHIEF 5,075]

I know many people are against farm subsidies, but this is the reason we have them. Having a secure agricultural base that can feed the entire nation should always be the number one priority of national security. The entire nation could sustain itself on government cheese, and saltines for a while. The Great Depression taught us this lesson. 40% of potentially enlisted men were 4F'ed going into WWII from illnesses related to malnutrition. 

My great-great uncle, got in at 120 lbs., was shipped to New Zealand, where he promptly put on an extra 45 lbs. He said there was plenty to eat, and all the ice cream he could put in his stomach.

CHIEF

[Royalfan5 2,353]

I'll just note here that wheat is down 1.40 a bushel from a week ago, and is putting carry into the market. 

[InkaUtexas 25,853]

Well this is a bit odd considering no one else has. Looking for the rationale. Will post if I can find it. 

This smells like some internal shit. 

Found this on Bloomberg. 

Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban declared a wartime state of emergency immediately after his new government was installed.

The state of emergency, a new tool Parliament approved earlier on Tuesday, will take effect at midnight and will give the government “maneuvering room and the ability to react immediately” to the fallout from the war in neighboring Ukraine, Orban said in a video message on his Facebook page. 

 

The government will announce its first measures under the emergency on Wednesday, he said.

 

Edited May 24, 2022 by InkaUtexas

[MissingInAction 25,002]

I'm starting a cricket farm.

[F250 28,761]

18 minutes ago, InkaUtexas said:

Well this is a bit odd considering no one else has. Looking for the rationale. Will post if I can find it. 

This smells like some internal shit. 

Found this on Bloomberg. 

Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban declared a wartime state of emergency immediately after his new government was installed.

The state of emergency, a new tool Parliament approved earlier on Tuesday, will take effect at midnight and will give the government “maneuvering room and the ability to react immediately” to the fallout from the war in neighboring Ukraine, Orban said in a video message on his Facebook page. 

 

The government will announce its first measures under the emergency on Wednesday, he said.

 

Let me guess, it will allow Obran to act without the input of Parliament basically creating autocratic rule in Hungary.

 

[InkaUtexas 25,853]

Yeah, for sure. still looking for a good article. There is a lot of speculation but I love how they won't announce anything concrete until tomorrow. 

I did see his Chief of Staff is also in charge of intel services. Hungary and Turkey are looking so similar. Mortal enemies UNITE! 

[atomheartbevo 89,618]

4 hours ago, CHIEF said:

I know many people are against farm subsidies, but this is the reason we have them. Having a secure agricultural base that can feed the entire nation should always be the number one priority of national security. The entire nation could sustain itself on government cheese, and saltines for a while. The Great Depression taught us this lesson. 40% of potentially enlisted men were 4F'ed going into WWII from illnesses related to malnutrition. 

Yeah, I know subsidies, etc. are abused at times, but it ultimately leaves us fairly secure in keeping the nation fed if things got really bad in the world.  Like really, really, Dust Bowl bad.

Countries tend to go to shit really fast if they can't feed their people.

[atomheartbevo 89,618]

3 hours ago, InkaUtexas said:

This smells like some internal shit. 

It's definitely the internal stuff.  He wants to be leader for life.

He can't be expelled (easily) from NATO - it sounds like they basically built it in that they would just wait out any governments that went to crap, with the idea that the population would bring things back if leadership went to far.  Same with the EU.

But Hungary can easily be isolated, and even if he tried to buddy up with Russia, he has no open water access, and is surrounded by enough NATO countries that Russia couldn't do much in the air, even as a "fuck you" to NATO (and Russia doesn't have the air or sea cargo capacity to do anything beyond supporting operations in Ukraine anyways).  And he doesn't strike me as the type to roll over for Putin - he wants to be a big fish in a small pond, not a small fish in Putin's pond.

And me thinks that NATO and even the EU have already been having back-channel discussions about cutting Hungary out of the loop on a lot of things.  From what's been said, most of the countries providing intel are providing it directly to Ukraine anyways, and not going through any formal NATO infrastructure.

[InkaUtexas 25,853]

Could the EU hit them with internal sanctions if he goes against EU policies? 

Militarily, yeah, all he can do is put pressure on neighbors. No way Russia could support him. But agitation is a good game for them. 

 

[atomheartbevo 89,618]

38 minutes ago, InkaUtexas said:

Could the EU hit them with internal sanctions if he goes against EU policies? 

Militarily, yeah, all he can do is put pressure on neighbors. No way Russia could support him. But agitation is a good game for them. 

They could maybe just do it on a country-by-country basis.  It sounds like they didn't plan on what to do if an EU state shits the bed.

Militarily - the concern would be him passing info onto the Russians, but given Hungary's location, would be kind of hard to do that without it being intercepted, and like I said, it sounds like they were providing intel directly to Ukraine.

He has to tread a fine line though - if he comes down hard on his people, he has to know that the other EU states/NATO have very little tolerance for that these days.

Edited May 24, 2022 by atomheartbevo