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Global Spring?

Immaculate Vibes

By Immaculate Vibes
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InkaUtexas

InkaUtexas 24900

Posted
Posted
6 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

They could maybe just do it on a country-by-country basis.  It sounds like they didn't plan on what to do if an EU state shits the bed.

Militarily - the concern would be him passing info onto the Russians, but given Hungary's location, would be kind of hard to do that without it being intercepted, and like I said, it sounds like they were providing intel directly to Ukraine.

He has to tread a fine line though - if he comes down hard on his people, he has to know that the other EU states/NATO have very little tolerance for that these days.

For sure. And we can run race tracks all around him and never touch his airspace. 

Scenario we briefed this morning. Food shortage causes another migration push from Africa and the Middle East. Hungary has always been hardline on migrants. Would they go against any EU policy? Push migrants into Bosnia and Croatia to destabilize them? 

Fuck 2022, I need a beer. 

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Serak The Preparer

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23 hours ago, CHIEF said:

I know many people are against farm subsidies, but this is the reason we have them. Having a secure agricultural base that can feed the entire nation should always be the number one priority of national security. The entire nation could sustain itself on government cheese, and saltines for a while. The Great Depression taught us this lesson. 40% of potentially enlisted men were 4F'ed going into WWII from illnesses related to malnutrition. 

My great-great uncle, got in at 120 lbs., was shipped to New Zealand, where he promptly put on an extra 45 lbs. He said there was plenty to eat, and all the ice cream he could put in his stomach.

CHIEF

I don't think that many people are against farm subsidies, but it is a little rich when those that benefit from such subsidies are also the loudest about screaming "SOCIALISM!" and "HANDOUTS" to others who receive money from the government.

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WBT

WBT 20143

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, Serak The Preparer said:

I don't think that many people are against farm subsidies, but it is a little rich when those that benefit from such subsidies are also the loudest about screaming "SOCIALISM!" and "HANDOUTS" to others who receive money from the government.

Plenty are against them

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Royalfan5

Royalfan5 2210

Posted
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18 minutes ago, Immaculate Vibes said:

Any truth to this SurlyAgs?

 

At these prices, guys will mud stuff in as long as they can. Those areas affected this year took a lot of prevent plant in 2019, and have multiple PP claims in a 5 year window means you have to mark a zero for your rolling yield average and will fuck you going forward. That being said we will be shedding yield in those areas without a good run of heat, and it’ll probably be a real bitch to cut because those guys will have to dry everything. Good news is the I states should be off to a great strong start which will can offset ND losses except for spring wheat 

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Brisketexan

Brisketexan 103414

Posted
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At these prices, guys will mud stuff in as long as they can. Those areas affected this year took a lot of prevent plant in 2019, and have multiple PP claims in a 5 year window means you have to mark a zero for your rolling yield average and will fuck you going forward. That being said we will be shedding yield in those areas without a good run of heat, and it’ll probably be a real bitch to cut because those guys will have to dry everything. Good news is the I states should be off to a great strong start which will can offset ND losses except for spring wheat 

I’m not a stupid person.
And I understood like 1.3% of this.
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Ted Dantzler

Ted Dantzler 144

Posted
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1 hour ago, Brisketexan said:


I’m not a stupid person.
And I understood like 1.3% of this.

1. Mud Stuff - Even if the ground is not ideal for planting crops farmers will do it because the prices are so high.

2. PP - Prevented planting aka our field is still soggy and its past the last recommended planting date for my crop in my area so pay me for not planting aka crop insurance. Alot of farmers used this in 2019 when prices were lower but if they use it again it will screw up the expected yields that is factored into crop insurance...aka they wouldn't be fully covered. 

3. No idea about the drying because I'm just the descendant of a hay seed and not a true one. 

4. Weather and crops are looking great in Indiana/Illinois/Iowa (Which are the most productive areas) so far.  

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Royalfan5

Royalfan5 2210

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9 hours ago, Ted Dantzler said:

1. Mud Stuff - Even if the ground is not ideal for planting crops farmers will do it because the prices are so high.

2. PP - Prevented planting aka our field is still soggy and its past the last recommended planting date for my crop in my area so pay me for not planting aka crop insurance. Alot of farmers used this in 2019 when prices were lower but if they use it again it will screw up the expected yields that is factored into crop insurance...aka they wouldn't be fully covered. 

3. No idea about the drying because I'm just the descendant of a hay seed and not a true one. 

4. Weather and crops are looking great in Indiana/Illinois/Iowa (Which are the most productive areas) so far.  

The fall isn't long enough in the north to get corn down to storable moisture levels without the helps of propane powered dryers in most years, let along a late year. You generally don't see big dryers south of Nebraska anymore as northern milo acres have faded. Guys still have them between 1-70 and 1-80, just might use them 1 out of 10-15 years. 

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atomheartbevo

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Posted
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This ties into some stuff earlier, about how the West/etc. are going to have to try and clean up this area, given it's strategic importantance (Gulf of Aden, etc.) and that the Africa Union has had problems with them.

Somalia's al-Shabaab group (part of al Qaeda) has grown bigger and stronger since we pulled troops out in late 2020.

Interview with the head of US Africa Command and others.  We need to get these people (Africa Union, etc.) to be more self-sufficient.

https://foreignpolicy.com/2022/05/26/somalia-terrorism-al-shabab-us-military/

Quote

U.S. Africa Command chief Gen. Stephen Townsend told reporters at the command’s headquarters in Stuttgart, Germany, that the terrorist group al-Shabab had taken advantage of Somalia’s political dysfunction after the U.S. withdrawal to regroup and improve its capability to strike within the Horn of Africa region and overrun African nations’ forward operating bases. Now, after U.S. President Joe Biden’s decision to send troops back, which U.S. officials have described as a move to keep a consistent presence in the country to tamp down on the rising terrorist threat, the United States is making preparations to send just under 500 troops to try to reverse the tide.

But al-Shabab’s ability to conduct complex attacks has grown due to the Trump-era hiatus, U.S. military officials believe. In early May, the terrorist group overran an African Union forward operating base in Somalia about 100 miles from the capital of Mogadishu, killing up to an estimated 30 peacekeepers in a tense firefight. And the group stepped up attacks ahead of this month’s elections—including a suicide bombing near the capital city’s airport that killed at least four people and wounded seven.

 

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atomheartbevo

atomheartbevo 88828

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Posted (edited)
8 hours ago, Hermanator said:

How much of this is usual and new and how much is just the same old shit that's been happening for decades anyway

Hard to say.  There's definitely some serious shit going on that is way outside of the norm - see Sri Lanka, China's problems with COVID and COVID in the world in general,  the looming food crisis that Russia has created, etc..  There's also been some weather-related stuff as well.

There is also a lot of stuff that has happened before, but that was previously in the realm of intelligence agencies, because it was just....not very interesting to the general public either because they didn't understand where or who it involved or why it would affect them, or there were technical barriers.  Thanks to the open source intel people compiling this stuff and presenting it publicly in an easily accessible manner, as well as having access to satellite and drone information, the mainstream public are discovering a lot of stuff.  

Your typical American for instance, wouldn't understand in the past why so many immigrants headed into Europe after the Arab Spring or even why there are surges/waves of illegal immigrants towards our borders.   All of the sudden with the OSINT folks and other information that's easy to understand, they can now see how things are interconnected and realize "oh, that country is falling apart, or that country can't feed its people, and so the residents are bailing and heading for Europe or the US."  We can understand why so many European countries are trying to "defeat" Russia in Ukraine, because we realize that many of them were reliant upon Russian oil/gas, and thanks to Russian talking heads being captured on video (and translated nearly in real-time) or Russian social-media being translated with one click, we understand why they are so worried that Russia won't stop with Ukraine.

I feel like Ukraine's invasion in February managed to bring a lot of the OSINT people together, as well as bringing in a lot of new people into the OSINT community, and the tools they are all using to compile information (satellites, drones, etc.) and then present it (including social media platforms) are now firing on all cylinders and reaching anybody with even just a little bit of interest.  Toss in that Ukraine's government and military have really redefined how a nation can use social media platforms in a crisis situation.   They don't have soldiers checking in as being safe, they have soldiers checking in videos that they can blast out to the internet and show that Russia is not this invulnerable juggernaut that we perceived them to be.  We can see maps of territory lost or gained, that is compiled by third parties with documented sources, and get a better sense than say Russia pushing out bullshit, or Ukraine redacting information that might help Russia, etc.

That long-ass convoy that everybody, but the Ukrainians, were so freaked out about - we wouldn't have seen something like that in the past, until well after it was over.  We didn't realize that Ukraine knew most of those vehicles were out of gas, and that Ukraine was systematically destroying the more valuable vehicles in the convoy.

We have also never seen the before, during, and aftermath of wide scale atrocities such as those committed by the Russians.  In the past, we got lots of fragments, usually after the fact.

This is really the first time the OSINT folks have reached a massive audience and while it's a bit of a trial-by-fire, they've been able to rapidly iterate on how to get information out there, even if it's just videos of tanks blowing up or whatever.  Same with the Ukrainian government utilizing social media during a massive conflict.

It's too early to say what the most important thing to come out of all of this will be, but the information sharing would probably top the list.

Edited by atomheartbevo
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atomheartbevo

atomheartbevo 88828

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Hey guys and gals, Russia is back to talking about nuking us!  Living rent-free in their heads!

Imagine a member of the US Senate or House of Representatives going on TV and talking about what it would take to destroy Russia with nukes.

If Putin defeated, he'll come up with something to feed his people.

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atomheartbevo

atomheartbevo 88828

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, InkaUtexas said:

I put this out earlier. it is a big deal. today Germany replaced their peacekeepers. This was not expected. Thanks for bringing it back up. 

Shit, sorry, sometimes I don't see all the tweets.

It is a big deal, and its one of those things that Russia could have gotten away with a decade ago, but they aren't adjusting to the modern world where this shit can be discovered and documented in no time flat.

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InkaUtexas

InkaUtexas 24900

Posted
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2 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

Shit, sorry, sometimes I don't see all the tweets.

It is a big deal, and its one of those things that Russia could have gotten away with a decade ago, but they aren't adjusting to the modern world where this shit can be discovered and documented in no time flat.

heheheh, no worries. glad we have eyes on multiple locations. watch east Africa and Mozambique. Again. Sorry for the lack of capitalization. fucked up my hand and can't get to the shift key! 

The Cameroon deal is also big. potential for regional happenings. 

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Schulz2.0

Schulz2.0 28616

Posted
Posted (edited)
17 hours ago, Royalfan5 said:

Just going to point out that wheat has dropped 2.60 a bushel from where we trading when everyone was sharing the world is running out of wheat story 

People are thinking the Russians are going to let wheat out of the ports. We should be very, very skeptical.

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/putin-russia-ready-facilitate-unfettered-grains-supply-ukraine-2022-05-30/

Edited by Schulz2.0
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Royalfan5

Royalfan5 2210

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5 minutes ago, Schulz2.0 said:

People are thinking the Russians are going to let wheat out of the ports. We should be very, very skeptical.

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/putin-russia-ready-facilitate-unfettered-grains-supply-ukraine-2022-05-30/

It also rained in France, we caught up a bunch on spring wheat planting, and low volume makes wheat do dumb shit when the algos push it. Even the SovEcon Russia grain shill doesn't believe it will happen, but algos are still programmed to take Russia at it's word for some reason. 

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Parliament

Parliament 13992

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Posted
On 6/1/2022 at 10:13 PM, atomheartbevo said:

Heard something about some folks are skipping wheat for whatever reason and going with soybeans and corn.

Getting close to too late for wheat and corn.  Just about everything left to be planted, if it gets planted, will go to beans.

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