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MLB Betting 2022

VolenteHawk

By VolenteHawk
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VolenteHawk

VolenteHawk 495

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We're BACK!

 

My season longs...

Twins OVER 81.5 -145

Cardinals UNDER 84.5 -115

Brewers OVER 90.5 -125

Mariners UNDER 84.5 -115

Athletics OVER 67.5 +105

 

Opening day plays (as in previous years lay a unit on a dog, lay to win a unit on a favorite)...

Houston +102

Cleveland -120

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TonyTexas

TonyTexas 10504

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@VolenteHawk As a baseball bettor, you might know the answer to this

Quote

Mattress Mac bet $10 million on the Astros winning the World Series at 7 1/2 to 1 earlier in the season. Stands to win $75M. I know it’s a hedge on his furniture promotion so a buyout probably wouldn’t work but I’m wondering how much the sports books would give him. The Astros are -180 to win it all. I’m guessing maybe $50M

 

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VolenteHawk

VolenteHawk 495

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On 10/24/2022 at 12:44 AM, TonyTexas said:

@VolenteHawk As a baseball bettor, you might know the answer to this

That's really more of a risk management question, and he didn't get all that down in the same place so it will vary by book.  If a book could attract enough bets on other teams, they'd theoretically have the ability to offset Astros exposure but I have no idea how big the handle is for MLB futures overall...like how easy is it for the market to kill $75M in risk.

As it relates to baseball, if the market as a whole couldn't offset Astros futures then -190 is probably a little bit inflated to attract Phillies money, which would imply some value on the Phillies.  I don't know that that's true or not, but baseball is so random that you're almost obligated to take +175 or better.  Similar to how Super Bowl odds get out of what.  That attracts so much money, and it's heavily skewed to the point spread favorite and money line dog...pushing you to almost always like the price of the money line favorite.

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Trynapigdog

Trynapigdog 3

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I’ve been tailing Billy Ward from Action network on his NRFI/YRFI bets throughout the week. His description is below. I don’t get to them everyday but today his system went 4 - 1. I missed out on the 4-0 opportunity yesterday. The juice can hurt if you hit a bad losing streak but overall it’s been a good strategy. I’ll try and keep track of the system on here and see what shakes out.

————O ————
The Model.
The process is relatively simple. First, I start by assuming that the full game (implied) run totals for either team are roughly efficient.

As mentioned above, that tends to be the case more often than not. This saves me the trouble of trying to predict the total runs scored in the game — and allows me to focus strictly on the “when” rather than “how many.”

Next, I built a database of pitchers performance the first time through the order, relative to their overall stats. Since the latter is presumably baked into the full game total, I wanted to figure out if those runs are more likely to come early or late.

Most — but not all — MLB starters do somewhat better early in games, but with some variance in just how much. The model uses xFIP (expected Fielding Independent Pitching) as the ERA predictor of choice.

That’s only half of the equation, though, with the offenses making up the other half. To do this, I looked at what percentage of a team’s total runs is produced by the top three batters in the lineup.

While a first inning run scored, by definition, needs at least four hitters to come to the plate, one of the first three has to actually score it. The metric of choice here is wRC+, based on the projected lineup for the day from each team.

This is a bit of a tradeoff, as lineups (and run totals) can shift throughout the day, especially if significant contributors miss time.

However, in my experience the inefficiency of the morning lines more than makes up for the leakage in the model. With that said, exercise caution if, say, Mike Trout is listed as questionable for the night’s game.

The Picks
With all of the picks below, I’ll include the pick, the best line and the threshold I’d bet it to. These will go up in the morning, so if any major news breaks between publishing and when you read it, be sure to consider that.

Infrequently, rather than betting on the traditional YRFI/NRFI, the pick will be on one team or the other specifically to score a run, which as of this writing is only a betting option at DraftKings.

Since the model handles each team individually, sometimes one team is projecting for a greater proportion of the “run equity” in the first inning than the betting lines are accounting for.

————O ————

Picks for 7/24/23
MIN/SEA NRFI -120 - win
HOU/TEX YRFI -106 - win
MIL/CIN YRFI -115 - win
TOR/LAD YRFI -129 - win
System record: 4 - 0 - 0

Picks for 7/25/23
DET/LAA YRFI +100 - win
NYY/NYM YRFI +100 - win
CHC/CHW YFRI -108 - lose
PIT/SD NRFI -105 - win
TOR/LAD YRFI -115 - win
System record: 8 - 1 - 0

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shakahorn

shakahorn 1645

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Billy Ward’s NRFI picks 7/26/23

MIN/SEA NRFI -115
SD/PIT YRFI -110
PHI/BAL NRFI +105
DET/LAA YRFI -104
CHW/CHC YRFI -104

2-2 with no action on DET/LAA

I love this bet cuz it’s immediate action and you don’t have to sit thru a whole MLB game.

Can you share the picks for 7/27?
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VolenteHawk

VolenteHawk 495

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On 7/25/2023 at 11:11 PM, Trynapigdog said:

I’ve been tailing Billy Ward from Action network on his NRFI/YRFI bets throughout the week. His description is below. I don’t get to them everyday but today his system went 4 - 1. I missed out on the 4-0 opportunity yesterday. The juice can hurt if you hit a bad losing streak but overall it’s been a good strategy. I’ll try and keep track of the system on here and see what shakes out.

————O ————
The Model.
The process is relatively simple. First, I start by assuming that the full game (implied) run totals for either team are roughly efficient.

As mentioned above, that tends to be the case more often than not. This saves me the trouble of trying to predict the total runs scored in the game — and allows me to focus strictly on the “when” rather than “how many.”

Next, I built a database of pitchers performance the first time through the order, relative to their overall stats. Since the latter is presumably baked into the full game total, I wanted to figure out if those runs are more likely to come early or late.

Most — but not all — MLB starters do somewhat better early in games, but with some variance in just how much. The model uses xFIP (expected Fielding Independent Pitching) as the ERA predictor of choice.

That’s only half of the equation, though, with the offenses making up the other half. To do this, I looked at what percentage of a team’s total runs is produced by the top three batters in the lineup.

While a first inning run scored, by definition, needs at least four hitters to come to the plate, one of the first three has to actually score it. The metric of choice here is wRC+, based on the projected lineup for the day from each team.

This is a bit of a tradeoff, as lineups (and run totals) can shift throughout the day, especially if significant contributors miss time.

However, in my experience the inefficiency of the morning lines more than makes up for the leakage in the model. With that said, exercise caution if, say, Mike Trout is listed as questionable for the night’s game.

The Picks
With all of the picks below, I’ll include the pick, the best line and the threshold I’d bet it to. These will go up in the morning, so if any major news breaks between publishing and when you read it, be sure to consider that.

Infrequently, rather than betting on the traditional YRFI/NRFI, the pick will be on one team or the other specifically to score a run, which as of this writing is only a betting option at DraftKings.

Since the model handles each team individually, sometimes one team is projecting for a greater proportion of the “run equity” in the first inning than the betting lines are accounting for.

————O ————

Picks for 7/24/23
MIN/SEA NRFI -120 - win
HOU/TEX YRFI -106 - win
MIL/CIN YRFI -115 - win
TOR/LAD YRFI -129 - win
System record: 4 - 0 - 0

Picks for 7/25/23
DET/LAA YRFI +100 - win
NYY/NYM YRFI +100 - win
CHC/CHW YFRI -108 - lose
PIT/SD NRFI -105 - win
TOR/LAD YRFI -115 - win
System record: 8 - 1 - 0

This is interesting.  HUGE disclaimer that I'm not handicapping baseball at all this year...real life getting in the way.  I hope to be back by the playoffs.  That said, this sorta thing is how I think about baseball betting, so I'll quibble with it for the sake of discussion and without putting enough work in to know if I'm right or wrong.

I like that he's using xFIP to evaluate pitchers, it's the best opponent/field neutral metric we have.  Where I'd quibble is why he needs full game run lines and full game pitching stats at all.  You can presumably build a 1st inning probability model as he has here and keep it agnostic of the full game numbers, it's simply "is the probability different enough from the betting odds to make a bet?".  I don't want the noise of two pitchers that are theoretically exactly the same in the first inning but different in the 6th b/c one is a veteran and gets more rope and one is young and gets pulled at the first sign of trouble.  The full game market efficiently accounts for this, I just don't know why I'd care to include it when a simpler calculation would suffice.  I'd also wonder about first time through the order vs literal first inning stats, but if he put this much work in what he landed on has to have performed better on a back fit or maybe they're the same and larger sample size wins.  The hitting side is a little more obvious, wRC+ is a fine choice and first 4 or 5 hitters are fine with me depending on what back fits better.

I'd also say that if he's seeing inefficiency early and that motivates making bets before he knows lineups then something about the market has changed/adjusted.  I was never a big first inning guy, but the guys I know that are used to wait until nearly first pitch b/c they were always betting yes and betting no was a bit of a square side.  You'd pretty literally never lay favorite juice on a yes and also pretty literally never bet a no, so this is probably a reflection of the exotic markets getting more efficient as bettors get smarter.

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Trynapigdog

Trynapigdog 3

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Damn. I forgot to post picks for yesterday. System went 3-2 yesterday.
8/1/23
MIN/PHI NRFI -130 —— win
PIT/DET -110 YRFI —- lose
ATL/LAA YRFI -109 —- win
SEA/BOS NRFI -125 —- lose
SF/ARI NRFI -135 —-lose

System is 17-14 entering Wednesday, 8/2/23.

Picks for 8/2/23
ATL/LAA YRFI -130
SEA/BOS NRFI -118
MIA/PHI NRFI -130
NYY/TB NRFI -122
STL/MIN NRFI +100

Also, SD Padres team-specific YRFI vs the Rockies +145. He recommended hedging with SD/COL NRFI. I don’t see the team specific NRFI on my book right now so I can’t play that one.

Good luck all.

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