Austin housing affordability crisis

[Brisketexan 104628]

We've been griping about increasing housing prices/values in Austin for some time now, and how they've been pricing out middle-income and almost all lower-income housing.  Well, this last round to appraisals (and the fact that they aren't insanely out-of-whack; rather, they seem to accurately track what the market is doing in this town) make that a point beyond dispute. 

The median house price in Austin is $624,000.  Even going with a high ratio of 3X income, it takes around $200k a year income to afford a median house in Austin.  94% of Americans earn LESS than $200k.  Our houses are "affordable," at the median, for the top 5%.   Consider the houses below the median, and maybe buying ANY house in Austin, outside of a shithole house in the worse pockets of town, is within reach of perhaps 10% of people.

This leads to a cascade of problems.  Many employers have employees who earn less than that (not just restaurants and bars, not just public employees like firefighters, cops, and teachers, even professional shops have assistants, staff, etc., who earn well under $200k a year).  Where are they going to find those people?  How can they pay them a "living wage?"  And, as even surrounding communities in Wilco and Hays county are seeing THEIR housing prices shoot up.....where will those employees live?

These are just a couple of the problems that come to mind.  There are hundreds of others.  Problem-spotting is its own task, solution-brainstorming is another.   So, putting this thread here not because I want it to go CR-political, but because that I'm sure SOME of the discussion will end up that direction.  Blaming the COA and its policy decisions is surely part of the mix, but these issues are not unique to Austin.  Numerous counties in the US have recently entered the ranks of the "unaffordable."  It's become a systemic issue.  So, putting this here for discussion, both broad and local.

[jimmyjazz 45560]

Regarding the rank-and-file workers (food service, public sector, education, etc.) -- the city absolutely must develop a plan for large pockets of cost-controlled housing that don't resemble Chicago's Cabrini Green circa 1980s, and which have affordable and broad-based public transportation into the urban core.  Without that, everything will spiral out of control, and we will become something more akin to San Francisco in terms of affordability, without many of the attractions that "justify" the high cost.

[tx 3 putt 76401]

What do people do in San Francisco ?

people will keep moving further out. The San Antonio / New Bransfels / San Marcos / Kyle / buda / Austin / pville / round rock / gTown metro pled will be massive. The tollway to the east of town will become more critical 

[YChang 3431]

6 minutes ago, tx 3 putt said:

What do people do in San Francisco ?

people will keep moving further out. The San Antonio / New Bransfels / San Marcos / Kyle / buda / Austin / pville / round rock / gTown metro pled will be massive. The tollway to the east of town will become more critical 

You're either very very rich. Or you have roommates. Or you unethically take advantage of having a spouse who earns below a certain amount (think school teachers) and get affordable rental prices from that. 

For families, yeah you keep moving further out. When I first moved to Oakland about 10 years ago it was already seen as an outpost for people escaping SF. Then a few years later it's to some of the communities around Oakland, south of Berkeley, north of Berkeley etc. I have a co-worker that bought an "affordable" home in freaking El Sabronte. The commute down to Cupertino for her is nuts. 

Edited April 18, 2022 by YChang

[NameAlreadyInUse 5106]

Yeah, Austin isn't affordable.  I'm definitely a beneficiary of getting a house here when they were still affordable, but I've lived in this house 7 years and could sell my house today for triple what I bought it for.  That's insane.  And what I could buy with the proceeds wouldn't be as good as what I have from a location/amenities perspective.  That's also insane.  We're now planning for the eventual time where we're going to have to leave Austin altogether because even if we work here for the rest of our careers, it will be prohibitively expensive to retire here even for people like me who do meet the definition of being able to afford a median house by Brisket's definition.

How do they manage this in New York City?  How do they manage it in San Francisco?  It isn't a new problem, and people live/retire there as well.  Do people just decide to live in shitholes?  

[Brisketexan 104628]

2 minutes ago, NameAlreadyInUse said:

We're now planning for the eventual time where we're going to have to leave Austin altogether because even if we work here for the rest of our careers, it will be prohibitively expensive to retire here even for people like me who do meet the definition of being able to afford a median house by Brisket's definition.

Oh, the wife and I just had the retirement conversation.  We've got a good while left in Austin, career-wise, so we're keeping our house.  But I never thought that a big chunk of my retirement nest egg would be "net a coupla million when you sell your house."  But that's going to be the case, even at modest appreciation rates over the next 10-15 years.  What that means is that either 1) we'll be retiring someplace far from here (probably near where at least one of our kids settles down), or 2) we'll stay in central Texas, but be far out (like Elgin or Taylor by then, who knows?)

4 minutes ago, NameAlreadyInUse said:

How do they manage this in New York City?  How do they manage it in San Francisco?  It isn't a new problem, and people live/retire there as well.  Do people just decide to live in shitholes?  

I'm definitely curious about that.  I never really thought about it because I never had to.  But now....seems that we have to.

[Longhorn_Fan68 33843]

7 minutes ago, YChang said:

You're either very very rich. Or you have roommates. Or you unethically take advantage of having a spouse who earns below a certain amount (think school teachers) and get affordable rental prices from that. 

For families, yeah you keep moving further out. When I first moved to Oakland about 10 years ago it was already seen as an outpost for people escaping SF. Then a few years later it's to some of the communities around Oakland, south of Berkeley, north of Berkeley etc. I have a co-worker that bought an "affordable" home in freaking El Sabronte. The commute down to Cupertino for her is nuts. 

you clearly don't know how the bolded works.

[YChang 3431]

Just now, Longhorn_Fan68 said:

you clearly don't know how the bolded works.

? Clarify por favor... I'm going off anecdotal stories of someone who works in tech and makes tons of money but was able to score a much lower rental rate because their spouse earns much less and qualified for breaks. 

[4th&Five 41461]

19 minutes ago, tx 3 putt said:

What do people do in San Francisco ?

people will keep moving further out. The San Antonio / New Bransfels / San Marcos / Kyle / buda / Austin / pville / round rock / gTown metro pled will be massive. The tollway to the east of town will become more critical 

Wife is a RE agent and sold a little shit box in Georgetown last week for 600k.  The seller bought it 2 years ago for 300.  It is on a couple acres but that still blew my mind.  People will be looking in Temple to find something affordable soon.

[PenelopeWitherspoon 19092]

28 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

We've been griping about increasing housing prices/values in Austin for some time now, and how they've been pricing out middle-income and almost all lower-income housing.  Well, this last round to appraisals (and the fact that they aren't insanely out-of-whack; rather, they seem to accurately track what the market is doing in this town) make that a point beyond dispute. 

The median house price in Austin is $624,000.  Even going with a high ratio of 3X income, it takes around $200k a year income to afford a median house in Austin.  94% of Americans earn LESS than $200k.  Our houses are "affordable," at the median, for the top 5%.   Consider the houses below the median, and maybe buying ANY house in Austin, outside of a shithole house in the worse pockets of town, is within reach of perhaps 10% of people.

This leads to a cascade of problems.  Many employers have employees who earn less than that (not just restaurants and bars, not just public employees like firefighters, cops, and teachers, even professional shops have assistants, staff, etc., who earn well under $200k a year).  Where are they going to find those people?  How can they pay them a "living wage?"  And, as even surrounding communities in Wilco and Hays county are seeing THEIR housing prices shoot up.....where will those employees live?

These are just a couple of the problems that come to mind.  There are hundreds of others.  Problem-spotting is its own task, solution-brainstorming is another.   So, putting this thread here not because I want it to go CR-political, but because that I'm sure SOME of the discussion will end up that direction.  Blaming the COA and its policy decisions is surely part of the mix, but these issues are not unique to Austin.  Numerous counties in the US have recently entered the ranks of the "unaffordable."  It's become a systemic issue.  So, putting this here for discussion, both broad and local.

New York City says:

[tx 3 putt 76401]

4 minutes ago, 4th&Five said:

Wife is a RE agent and sold a little shit box in Georgetown last week for 600k.  The seller bought it 2 years ago for 300.  It is on a couple acres but that still blew my mind.  People will be looking in Temple to find something affordable soon.

the tollway should spur growth on that side. Lot of land 

 

west side needs the same

[Revolution512 1480]

I built a custom home in Georgetown 7 years ago for 150 per sq ft. It’s appraised at double that now. Nothing around me (including mine) will sell for less than a million moving forward. Complete insanity. As soon as more of the rural fiber build out is complete around the state, I’m moving to the country.

[6th Street 6357]

I wouldn't call it a crisis. Plenty of cheap homes in the suburbs at $500k.

[gsoda3 3236]

1 minute ago, 6th Street said:

I wouldn't call it a crisis. Plenty of cheap homes in the suburbs at $500k.

that's the point.  you've got a crisis when the cheap homes in the suburbs are half a million dollars.  

[Snake Diggity 4614]

The usual ways major cities address this issue are underway: expansion/development of suburbs, development of multi-unit housing.  Like people said upthread, Austin’s issue isn’t unique; other cities have been dealing with this a long time.

I would probably be in favor of property tax credits and special financing for teachers and healthcare workers to ensure those workers can afford to live close to their work, and I’d at least listen on adding city/utility workers to that group.

Edited April 18, 2022 by Snake Diggity

[jimmyjazz 45560]

The crisis has nothing to do with an infinite amount of land surrounding Austin.  Sure, people can keep moving out -- they are, look at Leander and Dripping Springs population growth, among others.

The crisis is rooted in the businesses in the urban core that depend on nominal wage-earners.  That pool is going to soon dry up, which will cause prices in the city to skyrocket.  Remember being apoplectic that a plate of enchiladas went from $8 to $12?  Try $20, it's coming if it's not already here.

[Pato del Muerto 52342]

Nyc and the Bay Area have mass transit that makes it feasible to live far away and not have an insane commute. (I’ve heard that some do live in Connecticut and take a multi hour train into nyc though so maybe a bit of easing 50 mile commute times and making 100+ mile commutes possible.)

austin…does not. 
 

I don’t know what other metro area to compare it to with these RE prices and only vehicle commutes. 
 

i would like to see a salary adjustment at my place of employment, personally, to reflect the area COLI. 
 

nominal wage jobs in the city will need to be filled by high school kids of rich parents that still need jobs, trailing spouses looking for something to do, semi-retired older folks looking to busy their days, families that bought homes years ago and are middle class enough to afford the tax increases, and those who inherit close-in homes and move into them instead of selling them. 
 

what size or value of a pool that makes, I have no idea but I doubt it’s too large. 

Edited April 18, 2022 by Pato del Muerto

[Snake Diggity 4614]

3 minutes ago, jimmyjazz said:

The crisis has nothing to do with an infinite amount of land surrounding Austin.  Sure, people can keep moving out -- they are, look at Leander and Dripping Springs population growth, among others.

The crisis is rooted in the businesses in the urban core that depend on nominal wage-earners.  That pool is going to soon dry up, which will cause prices in the city to skyrocket.  Remember being apoplectic that a plate of enchiladas went from $8 to $12?  Try $20, it's coming if it's not already here.

Not interested in having everybody chip in to keep the price of dining out low.

[Orale 1087]

You're either very very rich. Or you have roommates. Or you unethically take advantage of having a spouse who earns below a certain amount (think school teachers) and get affordable rental prices from that. 
For families, yeah you keep moving further out. When I first moved to Oakland about 10 years ago it was already seen as an outpost for people escaping SF. Then a few years later it's to some of the communities around Oakland, south of Berkeley, north of Berkeley etc. I have a co-worker that bought an "affordable" home in freaking El Sabronte. The commute down to Cupertino for her is nuts. 

We visited some friends who bought a house in Oakland 15 years back for $600k. I remember thinking back then that was crazy. Ha!

Sent from my moto g(7) power using Tapatalk

[ChickenSandwich 9798]

We could cut the tax rates in half, and spend less. 

[jimmyjazz 45560]

2 minutes ago, Snake Diggity said:

Not interested in having everybody chip in to keep the price of dining out low.

It's not just the cost of enchiladas.

[We’reTexas 1469]

27 minutes ago, NameAlreadyInUse said:

 

How do they manage this in New York City?  How do they manage it in San Francisco?  It isn't a new problem, and people live/retire there as well.  Do people just decide to live in shitholes?  

In San Francisco (and most CA cities) there’s aggressive rent control and other tenant protections. You’ll often see stories about people subleasing from some old lady to pay 1980-level rents or packing up three generations in a one-bedroom in the Mission. A high minimum wage sort of helps. Prop 13 severely curtails property taxes, and until two years ago you could incredibly pass on your tax rate with your estate. In other words, SF manages it through market-distorting policies that make then problem worse in the long term. 
 

As to how working class people “do” it? I honestly don’t know - it doesn’t seem worth it to me, but I guess if it’s your home you just deal with it. You get used to paying more, and for homeowners you come to expect a rate of appreciation that justifies putting most of your wealth in your home. It’s that mentality transplanted to Austin that is fueling the craze, IMO. 
 

In defense of Texas, I do think the property tax regime makes sense. Homeowners immediately feel the sting of a rising market, prompting frank discussions over what to do about it (like this thread). Compare that to California, where Prop 13 allows homeowners all of the upsides of appreciation and no downsides, leaving the homeowner class indifferent to housing policy. 

[Pescado_Rojo 19331]

12 minutes ago, 6th Street said:

I wouldn't call it a crisis. Plenty of cheap homes in the suburbs at $500k.

Not really. I live in the suburbs, and there's not a house within 3-4 miles of me that would sell for $500K today. They tried to build an affordable subdivision along the 183A corridor starting in 2018 but as soon as the Apple campus was announced, investment companies snatched them all up as rentals. You can't even go buy a house from a master-planned builder out here without having to bid for it like any other home. And I'm not talking about inventory homes, you have to bid for a build slot to hopefully, maybe, someday have them build you a house in the next 18 months. And my realtor friends tell me they aren't even guaranteeing the final price of the house until closing, and building all kinds of contingencies into the contract if they have price increases before they break ground. 

That might be a different but related topic. Potential home buyers are competing with investment companies for the limited inventory all over Central Texas.  

[Pato del Muerto 52342]

2 minutes ago, ChickenSandwich said:

We could cut the tax rates in half, and spend less. 

Well that would help with a small portion of the problem. There’s still the matter of P&I doubling or tripling because the sales price has doubled or tripled. 

[YChang 3431]

9 minutes ago, Pato del Muerto said:

Nyc and the Bay Area have mass transit that makes it feasible to live far away and not have an insane commute. (I’ve heard that some do live in Connecticut and take a multi hour train into nyc though so maybe a bit of easing 50 mile commute times and making 100+ mile commutes possible.)

Kinda sorta not really for the Bay Area. Take my coworker as an example. She still has to drive down to a BART station near her. Then hop off at another station to catch the company bus. And that’s having the luxury of having a free company bus to take her down to the valley. That’s easily a 2 hr commute one way if there’s traffic and other than Monday morning, there’s always traffic. 😄

Edited April 18, 2022 by YChang

[Pato del Muerto 52342]

Just now, YChang said:

Kinda sorta not really for the Bay Area. Take my coworker as an example. She still has to drive down to a BART station near her. Then hop off at another station to catch the company bus. And that’s having the luxury of having a free company bus to take her down to the valley. 

Where’s my Austin rail station in Georgetown?  Kyle?  Bastrop? that will get me into town?

[YChang 3431]

1 minute ago, Pato del Muerto said:

Where’s my Austin rail station in Georgetown?  Kyle?  Bastrop? that will get me into town?

Mmhmmm, Austin doesn’t compare currently for sure. You’re right about that. But there’s people now living even further out in the Bay Area… it’s crazy. Over there, lots of first and last mile type issues as well before they get to public transit options.  

Edited April 18, 2022 by YChang

[horn4life 3755]

Where do you think the fucking traffic comes from anyway?  Commuter traffic is why Austin traffic sucks, and moving more and more housing farther and farther away is not a real solution. But it unfortunately is probably the only (sort of) solution.  Simply as the demand is now at a point of near insatiability in the near Austin areas.  I live at basically Oak Knoll and 183, and I wonder how far away do the food service folks have to live to be able to afford to live?  The areas of blue collar affordability have vastly evaporated in area.  I am actually lucky in that I have some back door routes to shopping and restaurants, but the commuters coming in and out 183 each day is only going to grow.

I see more probable infill via looser permitting on "mother in law" plans for secondary housing on formerly single family homes more and more throughout Austin.  But "not in My neighborhood" is what a lot of places would prefer, as greater density for the folks who already have a foothold, is simply not advantageous. UNLESS you are actually using the space for a MIL or are banking on rent.  

It's a tough dilemma, I see it every year in Port A, as prices have soared the last 5 years.  They built some affordable housing, but I don't know how it's going.  Hard to live across a ferry to be able to afford to live and commute across a ferry! Same for folks getting pushed farther and farther out.  I can hardly imagine graduating Texas today and looking at shit holes for $300K.  I fear that Austin is simply going to way of San Fran as how the hell are old Austinites going to be able to afford their taxes?

[Pescado_Rojo 19331]

2 minutes ago, Pato del Muerto said:

Where’s my Austin rail station in Georgetown?  Kyle?  Bastrop? that will get me into town?

A rail line from Georgetown that followed the Tx130 ROW and offered an express run to Bergstrom would be life changing. 

[Anastasis 23394]

It has to be pretty soul crushing and depressing to be a first time home buyer in this environment. Especially for younger families that have to run through the school zoning as part of their decision process. 

[We’reTexas 1469]

Yes, totally agree. Not to mention other development issues (like efforts to block multi family housing near BART stops) or that Bay Area public transit was totally overwhelmed by the volume pre-COVID. 

[Pato del Muerto 52342]

Just now, Pescado_Rojo said:

A rail line from Georgetown that followed the Tx130 ROW and offered an express run to Bergstrom would be life changing. 

With stops at cota and Tesla.  So sort of express?  Or maybe there’s enough cars to have express trains to each. 

[YChang 3431]

I think moving forward…  on top of increasing inventory, there needs to be a realization and acceptance that a typical family can still live comfortably with less sq ftg. I know that’s a hard bias even for me to shake off, due to what a lot of us were used to growing up here in Texas. 

[Pescado_Rojo 19331]

3 minutes ago, Pato del Muerto said:

With stops at cota and Tesla.  So sort of express?  Or maybe there’s enough cars to have express trains to each. 

You could sell me on a Tesla stop. COTA runs on event days, like Metrorail does for Austin FC games or events downtown. 

[PenelopeWitherspoon 19092]

Just now, 4th&Five said:

Wife is a RE agent and sold a little shit box in Georgetown last week for 600k.  The seller bought it 2 years ago for 300.  It is on a couple acres but that still blew my mind.  People will be looking in Temple to find something affordable soon.

And that isn't all that affordable anymore.  This is something that has happened to most major cities in the US over the last 20 years.  It is just going to get worse unless drastic steps are taken to stop it, think mortgage reform (i.e. if you are buying for a pied-a-terre in NYC, no low interest mortgage for you!  Vacation home, forget about it.).  

[PenelopeWitherspoon 19092]

38 minutes ago, 6th Street said:

I wouldn't call it a crisis. Plenty of cheap homes in the suburbs at $500k.

When the average wage in this country is 50k, 500k is not a cheap home.

I would kill to be able to buy a place like mine for 500k.  My entry for a similar apartment that I have now is the $1.5 - $2.0 million range.  Now, NYC is different than Austin, but we even more forces that drive up prices, like significant foreign investment, criminal activity (real estate market is used for money laundering), and then all those folks who live elsewhere and have an apartment in NYC (that is part of the reason Studios and 1BDMs are much more $$$).  It is fucking insane.

[Dahobbs 17447]

22 minutes ago, ChickenSandwich said:

We could cut the tax rates in half, and spend less. 

That isn't going to result in lower upfront prices, and in fact may very well result in increased prices since the overall monthly payment for an equivalently priced house would be less. 

[tx 3 putt 76401]

32 minutes ago, jimmyjazz said:

The crisis has nothing to do with an infinite amount of land surrounding Austin.  Sure, people can keep moving out -- they are, look at Leander and Dripping Springs population growth, among others.

The crisis is rooted in the businesses in the urban core that depend on nominal wage-earners.  That pool is going to soon dry up, which will cause prices in the city to skyrocket.  Remember being apoplectic that a plate of enchiladas went from $8 to $12?  Try $20, it's coming if it's not already here.

the pool will never dry up. NYC, LA, Chicago seem to keep going 

[tx 3 putt 76401]

1 hour ago, Brisketexan said:

Oh, the wife and I just had the retirement conversation.  We've got a good while left in Austin, career-wise, so we're keeping our house.  But I never thought that a big chunk of my retirement nest egg would be "net a coupla million when you sell your house."  But that's going to be the case, even at modest appreciation rates over the next 10-15 years.  What that means is that either 1) we'll be retiring someplace far from here (probably near where at least one of our kids settles down), or 2) we'll stay in central Texas, but be far out (like Elgin or Taylor by then, who knows?)

I'm definitely curious about that.  I never really thought about it because I never had to.  But now....seems that we have to.

I’ve always like the Johnson City area for possible retirement. The time to buy was 6 months when interest rates were killer.

i need to do more research, look for something now

[babysdaddy 2718]

I don't know if mortgage reform fixes the issue.  Effectively you're attempting to put an artificial cap on appreciation. We've had a housing inventory issue nationwide in all different kinds of pockets for over a decade.  DFW had something like 2400 homes for sale in March 2022, down from over 20k in March of 2019

[PenelopeWitherspoon 19092]

4 minutes ago, tx 3 putt said:

the pool will never dry up. NYC, LA, Chicago seem to keep going 

They keep going until we have a recession.  I fully expect one in the next year or two.  We saw it post 9/11 and we saw it post credit crisis.  We are kind of due one to be honest.

[Fudge Nuggets 19151]

23 minutes ago, Pescado_Rojo said:

They tried to build an affordable subdivision along the 183A corridor starting in 2018 but as soon as the Apple campus was announced, investment companies snatched them all up as rentals.

If you really want to get fired up, think about what happens if/when the bubble pops.  Those investment companies will be on the hook for billions but guess who will get to pay to cover those losses?  I’ll give you three guesses and the first two don’t count. 

[Brisketexan 104628]

1 hour ago, jimmyjazz said:

The crisis has nothing to do with an infinite amount of land surrounding Austin.  Sure, people can keep moving out -- they are, look at Leander and Dripping Springs population growth, among others.

The crisis is rooted in the businesses in the urban core that depend on nominal wage-earners.  That pool is going to soon dry up, which will cause prices in the city to skyrocket.  Remember being apoplectic that a plate of enchiladas went from $8 to $12?  Try $20, it's coming if it's not already here.

I have absolutely noticed this.  I just had a lunch at Galaxy Cafe that 3 years ago, with tax and tip, was probably $12-14.  Today, it was $18.  The cost of a basic meal out is up easily 30-50% in the past two years or so, and I'm positive a good chunk of that is increased employee costs.

Translate that to.....everything else that depends on lower wage earners.

59 minutes ago, Pato del Muerto said:

 

nominal wage jobs in the city will need to be filled by high school kids of rich parents that still need jobs, trailing spouses looking for something to do, semi-retired older folks looking to busy their days, families that bought homes years ago and are middle class enough to afford the tax increases, and those who inherit close-in homes and move into them instead of selling them. 

I remember having this conversation with my wife 15 years ago on a trip to San Diego.  We saw what the home prices were then (they were nuts), and I asked her as I drove down the street and pointed to a Jiffy Lube and a couple of casual restaurants -- where in the hell do the people who work there live?  You work at a Jiffy Lube in San Diego...where in the hell do you live?  Poway, Ramona?  Truly, I have no idea.

I get the "welcome to the party, pal" issue in comparison to NYC and San Diego but, with all love for Austin....we ain't NYC (limited geographic area) or San Diego (there's only so much property that gets those nice sea breezes to keep it all San Diego perfect, but those that get those breezes are heavenly).  We're Austin.  We're in the middle of Texas, with a lot of wide open space all the way to Taylor etc.  And we're growing those directions, rapidly.

[Biff Tannen 45499]

1 hour ago, NameAlreadyInUse said:

Yeah, Austin isn't affordable.  I'm definitely a beneficiary of getting a house here when they were still affordable, but I've lived in this house 7 years and could sell my house today for triple what I bought it for.  That's insane.  And what I could buy with the proceeds wouldn't be as good as what I have from a location/amenities perspective.  That's also insane.  We're now planning for the eventual time where we're going to have to leave Austin altogether because even if we work here for the rest of our careers, it will be prohibitively expensive to retire here even for people like me who do meet the definition of being able to afford a median house by Brisket's definition.

I'm in the same situation.  I got into Hyde Park right after the financial crisis and now I could sell and make a nice profit, but would still be priced out of the neighborhood.  Every single family home for sale is being bought up by a developer that then tears it down and puts in duplexes because no one can afford a single family home here anymore.

[Sbbruin 21738]

I am baffled how first time home buyers can even get into the game.  They aren't handing out mortgages like candy the way the did prior to the '08-'09 financial crisis, and even traditional loans with 20% down get you aced out most times by all cash buyers.  Home prices out here are just insane in the membrane.  Our house is worth 3 times what we paid for it 20 years ago.  A million bucks gets you a 1200 sf starter.  No way wages track with those prices.

[Hookah Horns 3082]

Seems to me that atx desperately needs new residential development. There's plenty of open space to the east. Those farmers out there are gonna be rich. 

[bluto 4894]

I think ~only hope in the next decade or two is the boomers start dying off. 
 

And I’m also thinking rising rates isn’t going to negatively impact value hikes, I actually see it having the opposite impact. Homeowners won’t be near as quick to move as they can’t touch their current rate/PITI so less turnover and inventory. 

[Pescado_Rojo 19331]

16 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

I have absolutely noticed this.  I just had a lunch at Galaxy Cafe that 3 years ago, with tax and tip, was probably $12-14.  Today, it was $18.  The cost of a basic meal out is up easily 30-50% in the past two years or so, and I'm positive a good chunk of that is increased employee costs.

 

I took my daughter out for Vietnamese last Friday. She got a Banh Mi and a bubble tea, I got a vermicelli bowl and a Thai Iced Tea...$45 bucks with tip. In Leander.  

[gmr548 16517]

I am baffled how first time home buyers can even get into the game.  They aren't handing out mortgages like candy the way the did prior to the '08-'09 financial crisis, and even traditional loans with 20% down get you aced out most times by all cash buyers.  Home prices out here are just insane in the membrane.  Our house is worth 3 times what we paid for it 20 years ago.  A million bucks gets you a 1200 sf starter.  No way wages track with those prices.

Parental help, saving well into the 30’s (and delaying other milestones like kids), ultra high earner in tech or something like that.

It’s one or a combo of those three for nearly everyone in the first time buyer category, and the middle group has certainly been gut punched the past couple years.

[Brisketexan 104628]

1 minute ago, Pescado_Rojo said:

I took my daughter out for Vietnamese last Friday. She got a Banh Mi and a bubble tea, I got a vermicelli bowl and a Thai Iced Tea...$45 bucks with tip. In Leander.  

That should be, at most, a $30 meal.

And note, you can still get that deal places where they aren't paying high rent, or having to pay high wages.  Lily Sandwich shop in Chinatown -- you can get a great Banh Mi for $6.50, and a bubble tea next door for $3-4.  So, probably out the door for $12-13 with tax and tip (it's all counter service).  Vermicelli bowl is a bit more around there, probably $12, and the drink is the same.  So, yeah, about $30 for both meals.

But again, that's a legacy rent, and the entire staff is likely family, speaking almost no English.