Austin housing affordability crisis

[bluto 4894]

2 minutes ago, SydneyCarton said:

Well, the entire city of Katy, TX was predicated on larger houses on bigger lots...

In a city proper? Sure, it's all one lot now supports 2-4 townhomes. But in every 'burb to a major city, every NEW community? Yards and lots I wager. 

Not around the new dfw burbs, it’s postage stamps from what I’ve seen. Builders maximizing unit count 

[WBT 20422]

10 hours ago, 6th Street said:

Mortgage rates have now eclipsed 5% which should drive some stabilization both from a buyer and seller perspective. This is from Redfin this AM:

"We expect the combination of surging mortgage rates and record-high home prices to cause more homebuyers to drop out of the market. Unfortunately, homeowners are turning their back on the market too. Instead of being motivated to list before prices weaken, potential home sellers may be choosing to wait-out the impending market cooldown.”

 

https://investors.redfin.com/news-events/press-releases/detail/703/redfin-reports-home-sales-fell-4-in-march-as-buying-costs

Yeah, a decade of historically low rates have contributed to the valuation boom and higher rates will have an impact for the next several years at least.  I think that will be more of a speedbump than a brake though.

[Neonmoon 38127]

10 minutes ago, WBT said:

Yeah, a decade of historically low rates have contributed to the valuation boom and higher rates will have an impact for the next several years at least.  I think that will be more of a speedbump than a brake though.

We've been riding a declining wave for 40 years. We finally hit bottom. The only direction now is up. 

But Affordability problem has another layer. That is wages. 

And not just the minimum wage stagnation. All wages besides the top. We've been getting fucked for a while. Companies have large HR departments with the sole purpose to suppress wage growth. Those years you don't get a 3% inflation raise? Those years are basically pay cuts. Or maybe after 5 years you finally get that 10% raise, but that's really just all the other years of inflation added to you salary, so while you feel good. It's really the same salary amount, just without the paycuts. Companies know people don't like to switch jobs, but if you did, you would make a considerably larger salary with your experience level at another company. 

 

 

So while half the country is like fuck the poor, $7.25 or $15 is too much for them, they're forgetting that if the minimum rage raises, it will put pressure on those jobs above to get higher wages, etc. So anyone that is against raising the minimum wage is basically against getting paid more, and would rather the company make more profits. 

 

 

 

[CooterBrown 17913]

Total tax burden for state and local taxes in Texas -- we are ranked 32nd.
NY is #1.  Cali and Illinois are 9 and 10.
https://wallethub.com/edu/states-with-highest-lowest-tax-burden/20494
 

I wonder what it is if you just look at the dozen urban Texas counties. The 200+ bumfuck counties with no people make our state average look better by having much lower property taxes than urban counties.

[Okie State 3788]

We sold our pretty basic although somewhat upgraded house in the West Houston burbs for almost $100K more than I thought it was worth. Had probably 50 showings and more offers than I could count. Builder grade house a few doors down listed for half a million and was pending in two days. Amazing if that is what half a million gets you in the burbs these days.

[CooterBrown 17913]

We sold our pretty basic although somewhat upgraded house in the West Houston burbs for almost $100K more than I thought it was worth. Had probably 50 showings and more offers than I could count. Builder grade house a few doors down listed for half a million and was pending in two days. Amazing if that is what half a million gets you in the burbs these days.

What’s the plan? Move away or be homeless since comparable homes are now 20% more since Friday?

[Okie State 3788]

What’s the plan? Move away or be homeless since comparable homes are now 20% more since Friday?

This was a few months ago. We bought before we sold. Probably paid too much, but got more than we were expecting so fuck it, right?

[fattyflattie 4636]

38 minutes ago, CooterBrown said:

I wonder what it is if you just look at the dozen urban Texas counties. The 200+ bumfuck counties with no people make our state average look better by having much lower property taxes than urban counties.

Sort of like 98% of Illinois. 

[TexArcher 37519]

1 hour ago, Okie State said:

We sold our pretty basic although somewhat upgraded house in the West Houston burbs for almost $100K more than I thought it was worth. Had probably 50 showings and more offers than I could count. Builder grade house a few doors down listed for half a million and was pending in two days. Amazing if that is what half a million gets you in the burbs these days.

Half a million in Austin will get you an above-garage apartment if you sign by Thursday.

[CooterBrown 17913]

56 minutes ago, TexArcher said:

Half a million in Austin will get you an above-garage apartment if you sign by Thursday.

And pay an $800/month concierge fee.

[High Plains Drifter 10977]

 

 

Marfa, yes Marfa freaking Texas (pop what less than 5K?), has the same problem. Due to rich art-holes buying up all the housing, the school district had to buy land and build housing for their teachers.

Short term rentals are also driving up prices. A family finally gives up and sells their crappy little house and moves away, and somebody, who may not even live in the town, buys it and instead of renting it out, like what would have happened even ten years ago, they air bnb it.

 

 

 

[High Plains Drifter 10977]

 

I mentioned this in another thread, but it is a better fit here:

 

I heard a program on the radio where a  reporter pretended to be rich and "shopped" for luxury apts in NYC. As the various realtors were showing her around the various high rises, she noticed that the buildings seemed to be strangely empty. She asked the realtors and they always had the same answer: The owners don't live there, they live somewhere else and are only in their apts a few days/weeks a year. In many cases, the owners are rich foreigners and they never spend a single night there and the apt is more a way of parking money in the US.

So, in the most expensive city to live in the country, you have thousands (tens of thousands?) of apts sitting unused. And more being built everyday. Something ain't right, the system is not working.

 

Also saw this story in the NYtimes recently: https://www.nytimes.com/2022/04/16/realestate/tenant-protections-nyc-upper-west-side.html

 

 

 

[Johnny Sack 8397]

Short term rentals are a problem in any vacation area.  

[HenryJames 65890]

And they’re no longer cheaper than hotels.

[sidis 9754]

3 hours ago, CooterBrown said:

I wonder what it is if you just look at the dozen urban Texas counties. The 200+ bumfuck counties with no people make our state average look better by having much lower property taxes than urban counties.

precisely.  when austin isd, eanes isd, plano isd, and highland park isd are subsidizing virtually every school district in the rest of the fucking state's budget, people in fucking brownwood, nederland, abilene, houston, and dalhart don't have to worry about paying taxes for shit and the idiots in leadership can tout the whole "look at how low-taxed or state is!"

the austin (and surrounding areas) property taxes pay for the entire state's fucking education infrastructure.  property taxes for the aisd area contributed $710 million to other school districts last year...eanes isd contributed $101 million.  houston actually kicked in a little for once last year but the combination of austin, eanes, and lake travis blows every where else away and it isn't even close.  from 1994 to 2018, austin isd contributed $3.1 billion to the rest of the state and eanes contributed $1.1 billion.  if you took those three, plus highland park and plano away, this state would start getting taxed real fucking fast.

[CooterBrown 17913]

 
I mentioned this in another thread, but it is a better fit here:
 
I heard a program on the radio where a  reporter pretended to be rich and "shopped" for luxury apts in NYC. As the various realtors were showing her around the various high rises, she noticed that the buildings seemed to be strangely empty. She asked the realtors and they always had the same answer: The owners don't live there, they live somewhere else and are only in their apts a few days/weeks a year. In many cases, the owners are rich foreigners and they never spend a single night there and the apt is more a way of parking money in the US.
So, in the most expensive city to live in the country, you have thousands (tens of thousands?) of apts sitting unused. And more being built everyday. Something ain't right, the system is not working.
 
Also saw this story in the NYtimes recently: https://www.nytimes.com/2022/04/16/realestate/tenant-protections-nyc-upper-west-side.html
 
 
 

I noticed that the last time I went to San Francisco. Neighborhoods that were lively over a decade ago were ghost towns.

[CooterBrown 17913]

 
I mentioned this in another thread, but it is a better fit here:
 
I heard a program on the radio where a  reporter pretended to be rich and "shopped" for luxury apts in NYC. As the various realtors were showing her around the various high rises, she noticed that the buildings seemed to be strangely empty. She asked the realtors and they always had the same answer: The owners don't live there, they live somewhere else and are only in their apts a few days/weeks a year. In many cases, the owners are rich foreigners and they never spend a single night there and the apt is more a way of parking money in the US.
So, in the most expensive city to live in the country, you have thousands (tens of thousands?) of apts sitting unused. And more being built everyday. Something ain't right, the system is not working.
 
Also saw this story in the NYtimes recently: https://www.nytimes.com/2022/04/16/realestate/tenant-protections-nyc-upper-west-side.html
 
 
 

I noticed that the last time I went to San Francisco. Neighborhoods that were lively over a decade ago were ghost towns.

[HenryJames 65890]

They all moved to Austin.

[Dbeasy 14969]

I’m glad to see this thread. I’ve been deeply worried about wealth inequality and the impact on housing prices for many years. Texas escaped the problems until recently. 

I spent a big chunk of my career in Silicon Valley while living in Texas. One aspect of this wealth inequality and housing crisis in Austin that has me deeply concerned is the “Palo Alto” ization of Austin. 

Palo Alto is full of rich “tech bros” with misplaced values and annoying personalities. They are now flooding into Austin and the very soul of this city is changing rapidly to a place for only the wealthy. 

And I know a lot of you think you are now Uber rich, especially with home prices skyrocketing. But I don’t think  people understand that “wealth” they are getting. You always have to live somewhere and the top 2% has enough wealth to buy all the land and have the rest live like serfs on castle lands. Granted, this view is a bit of hyperbole, but that is where this is headed. and the government is purposely inflating away our debt as a percentage of GDP to deal with bloated govt spending.

A few people own a significant percentage of all the land in NM that isn’t a reservation or govt owned. It’s a serious problem. 

[sidis 9754]

34 minutes ago, sidis said:

precisely.  when austin isd, eanes isd, plano isd, and highland park isd are subsidizing virtually every school district in the rest of the fucking state's budget, people in fucking brownwood, nederland, abilene, houston, and dalhart don't have to worry about paying taxes for shit and the idiots in leadership can tout the whole "look at how low-taxed or state is!"

the austin (and surrounding areas) property taxes pay for the entire state's fucking education infrastructure.  property taxes for the aisd area contributed $710 million to other school districts last year...eanes isd contributed $101 million.  houston actually kicked in a little for once last year but the combination of austin, eanes, and lake travis blows every where else away and it isn't even close.  from 1994 to 2018, austin isd contributed $3.1 billion to the rest of the state and eanes contributed $1.1 billion.  if you took those three, plus highland park and plano away, this state would start getting taxed real fucking fast.

just to build on this a bit for more context.  last year, in a single year, austin isd contributed $710 million...$812 million with eanes added and $862 million with lake travis.  just in 2020-2021 school year.  the total, cumulative contribution made by houston since 1994 is $292 million.  the rest of this dumbfuck state that complains about liberal austin needs to get down on their fucking knees and suck our fucking dick and swallow in appreciation.  hpisd and plano isd are exempted.  they can facial everyone else.

i'm a little pissy about this right now.

[We’reTexas 1469]

1 hour ago, High Plains Drifter said:

 

I mentioned this in another thread, but it is a better fit here:

 

I heard a program on the radio where a  reporter pretended to be rich and "shopped" for luxury apts in NYC. As the various realtors were showing her around the various high rises, she noticed that the buildings seemed to be strangely empty. She asked the realtors and they always had the same answer: The owners don't live there, they live somewhere else and are only in their apts a few days/weeks a year. In many cases, the owners are rich foreigners and they never spend a single night there and the apt is more a way of parking money in the US.

So, in the most expensive city to live in the country, you have thousands (tens of thousands?) of apts sitting unused. And more being built everyday. Something ain't right, the system is not working.

 

Also saw this story in the NYtimes recently: https://www.nytimes.com/2022/04/16/realestate/tenant-protections-nyc-upper-west-side.html

 

 

 

I mean, I guess it makes sense that luxury housing would be commonly used as piede-à-terres in major cities, but that doesn’t detract from it being a problem. It’s just unclear to me how much of a problem it is. Vancouver and Oakland recently enacted vacancy taxes, but of course it’s impossible at this point to get a sense of their impacts. One issue that’s clear, though, is that many cities disincentivize renting so much that property owners would rather just pay the taxes. Also, progressive housing activists tend to overemphasize foreign investors as bogeyman to distract from actually building any housing. 

[jimmyjazz 45560]

41 minutes ago, sidis said:

just to build on this a bit for more context.  last year, in a single year, austin isd contributed $710 million...$812 million with eanes added and $862 million with lake travis.  just in 2020-2021 school year.  the total, cumulative contribution made by houston since 1994 is $292 million.  the rest of this dumbfuck state that complains about liberal austin needs to get down on their fucking knees and suck our fucking dick and swallow in appreciation.  hpisd and plano isd are exempted.  they can facial everyone else.

i'm a little pissy about this right now.

Me too.  I have never seen the math that supports the idea that Houston ISD shouldn't at least match AISD, etc. for Robin Hood.  It doesn't pass the smell test.  It's a far bigger district and home prices aren't that much lower, but somehow, AISD funds more than any district in the state.

I can only assume that taxing entities like AISD will drop property tax rates given the huge 2022 jump in appraised values.  I crack myself up.

[sidis 9754]

Just now, jimmyjazz said:

Me too.  I have never seen the math that supports the idea that Houston ISD shouldn't at least match AISD, etc. for Robin Hood.  It doesn't pass the smell test.  It's a far bigger district and home prices aren't that much lower, but somehow, AISD funds more than any district in the state.

I can only assume that taxing entities like AISD will drop property tax rates given the huge 2022 jump in appraised values.  I crack myself up.

well, i think that houston isd definitely has to deal with a lot more shitty neighborhoods and crappy schools than austin does right now.  and the fact that it is so brutally cannibalized by friendswood isd, cy-fair isd (which should be contributing but somehow isn't), katy, etc... so i wouldn't expect it to contribute as much as austin, but having contributed 1/3rd of austin's last year...IN 15 YEARS is a bit insane to me.  where is cypress?  where is frisco?  where is alamo heights? 

[jimmyjazz 45560]

1 minute ago, sidis said:

well, i think that houston isd definitely has to deal with a lot more shitty neighborhoods and crappy schools than austin does right now.  and the fact that it is so brutally cannibalized by friendswood isd, cy-fair isd (which should be contributing but somehow isn't), katy, etc... so i wouldn't expect it to contribute as much as austin, but having contributed 1/3rd of austin's last year...IN 15 YEARS is a bit insane to me.  where is cypress?  where is frisco?  where is alamo heights? 

Fair enough.  Still seems way out of whack.

[sidis 9754]

7 minutes ago, jimmyjazz said:

Fair enough.  Still seems way out of whack.

agreed.

[South Austin 52144]

What a gotdam depressing thread, but it makes me glad I bought my current house when I did.

I bought a 2016 build in Brentwood, stumbling distance from Woodrow's on Burnet, in early January 2020 when my divorce was official.  Significantly smaller than the marital house my wife kept, but plenty big enough for me and the two kids.  If I had gotten divorced and been in the market some time later in 2020 or beyond, I'm not sure I could have afforded to buy anywhere in this general vicinity without gutting my savings, with the exception of some rundown shithole that needed $500K worth of improvements.  And that's from someone who makes a pretty comfortable living.  

[fattyflattie 4636]

2 hours ago, jimmyjazz said:

It's a far bigger district and home prices aren't that much lower, but somehow, AISD funds more than any district in the state.

Lol wut.  The price differences are real. I was in a “975k house” this weekend in Austin that would be appraised ~under 400 here.  There are some really nice areas here, surrounded by third world shit. 

[Johnny Sack 8397]

2 hours ago, jimmyjazz said:

Me too.  I have never seen the math that supports the idea that Houston ISD shouldn't at least match AISD, etc. for Robin Hood.  It doesn't pass the smell test.  It's a far bigger district and home prices aren't that much lower, but somehow, AISD funds more than any district in the state.

I can only assume that taxing entities like AISD will drop property tax rates given the huge 2022 jump in appraised values.  I crack myself up.

Austin has slightly different demographics than Houston.

Especially Eanes and Lake Travis.  

[Johnny Sack 8397]

5 minutes ago, fattyflattie said:

Lol wut.  The price differences are real. I was in a “975k house” this weekend in Austin that would be appraised ~under 400 here.  There are some really nice areas here, surrounded by third world shit. 

Most of HISD is filled with absolute shitholes.  It’s why I write a $50k check every July 2.  Austin isn’t like that.  

[jimmyjazz 45560]

5 minutes ago, Johnny Sack said:

Austin has slightly different demographics than Houston.

Especially Eanes and Lake Travis.  

Eanes and Lake Travis aren't part of AISD.

[Johnny Sack 8397]

1 minute ago, jimmyjazz said:

Eanes and Lake Travis aren't part of AISD.

He seemed to be including them as part of Austin’s contribution.  

[jimmyjazz 45560]

36 minutes ago, fattyflattie said:

Lol wut.  The price differences are real. I was in a “975k house” this weekend in Austin that would be appraised ~under 400 here.  There are some really nice areas here, surrounded by third world shit. 

Latest data I could find:

 

HISD serves 194,000 students.

AISD serves 74,000 students.

That's a ratio of 2.6X.

 

Median home price in Houston is $329K.

Median home price in Austin is $595K.

That's a ratio of 0.55X.

 

Based on those crude data, one might expect that HISD would kick in some 44% more money to Robin Hood than AISD (2.6X more HISD households taxed at 55% of AISD home valuations).  It's a swag.  

Does HISD pay 1.44X AISD's amount to Robin Hood?  No, it doesn't.  In 2020-21, Houston paid $198M, and Austin paid $711M.  Instead of 1.44X, HISD paid 0.28X.  Somebody tell me how I'm way off here.

Edited April 20, 2022 by jimmyjazz

[fattyflattie 4636]

3 minutes ago, jimmyjazz said:

Median home price in Houston is $329K.

This is surprising.  There are sections of the city that shouldn’t even be inhabited.  Guess those 15m jobs in RO raise lots of ships along with them. 

[jimmyjazz 45560]

Just now, fattyflattie said:

This is surprising.  There are sections of the city that shouldn’t even be inhabited.  Guess those 15m jobs in RO raise lots of ships along with them. 

I just saw a national "most desirable" list that ranked The Woodlands at #1.

So, I feel your pain.  I mean, I've spent some time there, it's relatively quiet and seems moderately crime-free, but overall Houston seems to be a rather bizarre animal.  I couldn't possibly speak to the relative worth of HISD homes compared to AISD homes, but those are the numbers I found.

[Johnny Sack 8397]

9 minutes ago, jimmyjazz said:

Latest data I could find:

 

HISD serves 194,000 students.

AISD serves 74,000 students.

That's a ratio of 2.6X.

 

Median home price in Houston is $329K.

Median home price in Austin is $595K.

That's a ratio of 0.55X.

 

Based on those crude data, one might expect that HISD would kick in some 44% more money to Robin Hood than AISD (2.6X more HISD households taxed at 55% of AISD home valuations).  It's a swag.  

Does HISD pay 144% AISD's amount to Robin Hood?  No, it doesn't.  In 2020-21, Houston paid $198M, and Austin paid $711M.  Instead of 1.44X, HISD paid 0.28X.  Somebody tell me how I'm way off here.

I’m guessing formula isn’t based on raw numbers.  But richer districts and cities paying more.  If a city has ten million people but the average home value is less than state average, they probably aren’t kicking in much.  

[Okie State 3788]

This is surprising.  There are sections of the city that shouldn’t even be inhabited.  Guess those 15m jobs in RO raise lots of ships along with them. 

Is that for HISD only? Not sure what is considered 'Houston' anymore.

[fattyflattie 4636]

Just now, jimmyjazz said:

I just saw a national "most desirable" list that ranked The Woodlands at #1.

So, I feel your pain.  I mean, I've spent some time there, it's relatively quiet and seems moderately crime-free, but overall Houston seems to be a rather bizarre animal.  I couldn't possibly speak to the relative worth of HISD homes compared to AISD homes, but those are the numbers I found.

Something definitely seems wompy in Austin, above and beyond the appraisals. Maybe that’s what things are worth now, fuck me. But like I said upthread, I was in my cousins house this weekend that side by side would be about half the house I have.  They are valued almost 400k more (they are in Circle C I believe?) And I’m a little guy in my hood, and they were the biggest sf I found on current HAR listings in theirs. I can’t speak intelligently to Austin as I’ve never spent appreciable time there, and don’t really know the lay of the land. I know I’d be pissed if I had to pay the taxes they do.  

[jimmyjazz 45560]

2 minutes ago, fattyflattie said:

I know I’d be pissed if I had to pay the taxes they do.  

It got extra special when the SALT exemption got cut to $10K.

[Pato del Muerto 52342]

18 minutes ago, jimmyjazz said:

Latest data I could find:

 

HISD serves 194,000 students.

AISD serves 74,000 students.

That's a ratio of 2.6X.

 

Median home price in Houston is $329K.

Median home price in Austin is $595K.

That's a ratio of 0.55X.

 

Based on those crude data, one might expect that HISD would kick in some 44% more money to Robin Hood than AISD (2.6X more HISD households taxed at 55% of AISD home valuations).  It's a swag.  

Does HISD pay 1.44X AISD's amount to Robin Hood?  No, it doesn't.  In 2020-21, Houston paid $198M, and Austin paid $711M.  Instead of 1.44X, HISD paid 0.28X.  Somebody tell me how I'm way off here.

This seems to indicate that only households with public school students are paying isd taxes. 
 

don’t you have to factor total households and not just students, at least to get to the contribution number?

[fattyflattie 4636]

2 minutes ago, jimmyjazz said:

It got extra special when the SALT exemption got cut to $10K.

Oh I know. I know several “trumpers” that didn’t trump second time over it.  

[jimmyjazz 45560]

6 minutes ago, Pato del Muerto said:

This seems to indicate that only households with public school students are paying isd taxes. 
 

don’t you have to factor total households and not just students, at least to get to the contribution number?

That could be a factor, but I'd be shocked if it explained the difference.

[DanRydell 799]

If we didn’t have a Texas Supreme Court full of whores and assholes, we could instantly create at least 10,000 new homes by just completely banning STRs.

[DanRydell 799]

If we didn’t have a Texas Supreme Court full of whores and assholes, we could instantly create at least 10,000 new homes by just completely banning STRs.

[Johnny Sack 8397]

10 minutes ago, DanRydell said:

If we didn’t have a Texas Supreme Court full of whores and assholes, we could instantly create at least 10,000 new homes by just completely banning STRs.

Short term rentals totally aren’t an issue in other states.  I think you nailed it.   It’s the Texas Supreme Court. 

[sidis 9754]

1 hour ago, Johnny Sack said:

He seemed to be including them as part of Austin’s contribution.  

If I include them, it goes to $860 million instead of AISD in isolation being $710 million last year. 

AISD is projecting a contribution this year of $798 million. Eanes is projecting $120 million.

[sidis 9754]

1 hour ago, Johnny Sack said:

He seemed to be including them as part of Austin’s contribution.  

If I include them, it goes to $860 million instead of AISD in isolation being $710 million last year. 

AISD is projecting a contribution this year of $798 million. Eanes is projecting $120 million.

[Johnny Sack 8397]

Woke white libs getting their ox gored doesn’t bother me.  

[Neonmoon 38127]

Are you arguing that Texas’ method of taxation through property is contributing to the affordability crisis?

[Judge Roybeanbag 11810]

Would encourage everyone to read this study, for educational purposes.

https://recapturetexas.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/01/Robin-Hood-in-Texas.pdf

 

[Jiggy-Z 3432]

2 hours ago, South Austin said:

What a gotdam depressing thread, but it makes me glad I bought my current house when I did.

I bought a 2016 build in Brentwood, stumbling distance from Woodrow's on Burnet, in early January 2020 when my divorce was official.  Significantly smaller than the marital house my wife kept, but plenty big enough for me and the two kids.  If I had gotten divorced and been in the market some time later in 2020 or beyond, I'm not sure I could have afforded to buy anywhere in this general vicinity without gutting my savings, with the exception of some rundown shithole that needed $500K worth of improvements.  And that's from someone who makes a pretty comfortable living.  

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