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Posted by Sandbagging Steve,

How many teams will be left when the dust settles in a few years? I think there's a way for all the teams to still have some involvement. I will explain that at the end of this list. Here's my list of the top 32 programs and a list if it goes to 48. There's some debate if it goes to 48, but not much debate if it stops at 32. I guess one could debate Arizona State, but that's about it. The top 32 at least come close to carrying their own weight. Everyone below that line is losing money for t

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Aggy should abstain so the vote is 13-0 and then we can then brand it on their dog.

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LTbear

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Posted (edited)
3 hours ago, Al_4_ISU said:

Exactly.  I would go 8x9 for 72, personally, but 120 is way too much.  8x9 sucks in those last few quasi worthy G5s (BYU, Cincy, Memphis).

I approve of this. BYU is, from an athletic standpoint, more worthy of P5 status than a good portion of the P5. Cincy, I think, is the only team previously AQ that hasn't now made it into a P5. Memphis, I can see the point. Boise in the P5 would be fun. Beyond that, it's pretty slim.

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Al_4_ISU

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31 minutes ago, LTbear said:

I approve of this. BYU is, from an athletic standpoint, more worthy of P5 status than a good portion of the P5. Cincy, I think, is the only team previously AQ that hasn't now made it into a P5. Memphis, I can see the point. Boise in the P5 would be fun. Beyond that, it's pretty slim.

The current P5 is 64 + Notre Dame.  Someone gets left out of a rigorous 8x8 model.  72 includes everyone that deserves it, and the last couple spots are coin flips were the loser doesn't really have a better claim than the winner.

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BluTechsan

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12 hours ago, Al_4_ISU said:

The current P5 is 64 + Notre Dame.  Someone gets left out of a rigorous 8x8 model.  72 includes everyone that deserves it, and the last couple spots are coin flips were the loser doesn't really have a better claim than the winner.

65 - P5 + ND

66 - BYU

67 - Boise

68 - San Diego St

69 - Cincy

70 - Air Force

71 - Navy

72 - Army

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camel at sea

camel at sea 589

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4 hours ago, Al_4_ISU said:

Pretty hard to argue that.

I suspect UCF would have something to say.  Houston, too.

As far as Forde's idea goes, he just went too far.  Cut the two worst schools out of each conference he designed and make it an even 100 schools instead of 120.  10x10.  Most conferences will be good at the top and decent in the middle.  He just put too many trash programs at the bottom of each conference.  

That leaves you without a P5/G5 split.  So everyone left in that 100 schools group will have an actual shot to play for championships.  The 20 or so schools cut can play FCS ball.  But the upside to this plan is that it gets the sport to a true playoff system but it does not change the historic scheduling model very much.  And the blue bloods that are accustomed to winning 10+ games per year will continue to do so.

 

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Dnaguy

Dnaguy 11704

Posted
Posted (edited)
On 5/10/2020 at 5:29 AM, kopp0e said:

 

In both cases, powers Texas & USC are going through rebuilding cycles, from (previous) coaches who cratered the respective programs...
A way to retain players in both states, (getting better recruiting in the other state, would be the top 7 and 9 brands from both XII & PAC merge:

BigPac Conference

Pacific division:

Washington
Oregon
California
UCLA
USC
Arizona
Arizona State
Colorado  Stanford


8 9 of the current 12 schools [75%] (your math was originally off but now 9/12 is 75%) are secured of a future together, in a model)...

Big division:

Iowa State
Kansas
Kansas State
Oklahoma
Oklahoma State
TCU Colorado
Texas
Texas Tech

(7 of the current 10 schools [80% 70%] are secured of a future together, in a model)...

3rd tier network(s):

Either as 16 team conference network with all rights pooled in, placed on PXCN...

Or with UT/ OU/ USC/ UCLA with individual Disney 3rd tier/ 12 others on ESPN+...

Bowl alignment (would need some help from CFP somehow decoupling the Rose and Sugar from their playoff rotation -- Rose/Peach, Sugar/Fiesta, Orange Cotton)

  • #1-a 1b The BigPac champion runner up by record goes to Sugar Bowl if not selected for playoffs and if champion not selected to playoff & the Rose Bowl is a playoff site , or on years the Sugar Bowl is not a playoff site
  • #1-b 1a The BigPac runner-up champion goes to Rose Bowl unless selected for playoffs or if Rose Bowl in site of CFP, then champion goes to Sugar Bowl if champion not in playoffs...
  • #2 Las Vegas Bowl - BigPac runner up on years that Sugar Bowl hosts playoff vs MWC
  • #3 Holiday Bowl - BigPac vs ACC
  • #4 Alamo Bowl - BigPac vs B1G
  • #5 Sun Bowl - PXC vs ACC
  • #6 Cheeze_It Bowl - PXC vs SEC
  • #7 Liberty Bowl - PXC vs SEC
  • #8 Camping World Bowl - PXC vs AAC
  • #9 Redbox Bowl - PXC vs B1G
  • #10 First Responder Bowl - PXC vs AAC
  • #11 Texas Bowl - PXC vs SEC

    11 bowl slots in total, for 16 conference members -
    Thus allowing 68% of BigPAc to compete, if bowl eligible (amount needed wins/ no ban)...

EX)

Year 1: Rose and Peach CFP sites

Rose: CFP

Sugar: BigPac Champion

Vegas: Runner-up 

Year 2: Sugar Fiesta CFP sites

Rose: Champion

Sugar: Playoff

Vegas: Runner up

Year 3: Orange and Cotton CFP sites

Rose: Champion

Sugar: Runner up

Vegas: BigPac#3

FIFY

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SwanderedTalent

SwanderedTalent 5761

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15 hours ago, BluTechsan said:

65 - P5 + ND

66 - BYU

67 - Boise

68 - San Diego St

69 - Cincy

70 - Air Force

71 - Navy

72 - Army

Army, Navy, and the Air Force do not need to be competing at the NFL Feeder level. They should drop down to I-AA. As for Boise, SDSU, and Cincy, we don't need them, but I am sure there are other even less profitable P5 programs they could replace in NFL JR when it launches. 

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BluTechsan

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3 hours ago, SwanderedTalent said:

Army, Navy, and the Air Force do not need to be competing at the NFL Feeder level. They should drop down to I-AA. As for Boise, SDSU, and Cincy, we don't need them, but I am sure there are other even less profitable P5 programs they could replace in NFL JR when it launches. 

Used to I'd agree.

But the academy's can recruit a higher level of athlete because it's my understanding that their active duty can be deferred until after pro career has ended.

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SwanderedTalent

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42 minutes ago, BluTechsan said:

Used to I'd agree.

But the academy's can recruit a higher level of athlete because it's my understanding that their active duty can be deferred until after pro career has ended.

This is a good time for them to get out of the NFL Feeder tier of programs, where they haven't belonged since before the Vietnam War. I'm not saying they can't win games at this level. They do it all the time. I'm saying this (hypothetical) level exists to populate NFL rosters and compete for CFP playoff national championships. The service academics, love them as I do, don't need to be trying to do either of those things. This is a good time (again, hypothetically) to drop them to I-AA where I bet they could be beasts again.

Or leave them at I-A and make the Independents a conference, whatever. There's no magic to 64, it can be 71 if we want, but (one more time, for this specific hypothetical), we need eight conferences to produce eight conference champions for the playoff. So I'm not sure where they fit, anyway.

and yes I'm going to call them I-A and I-AA until I die

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notre dame joe

notre dame joe 171

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2 hours ago, BluTechsan said:

Used to I'd agree.

But the academy's can recruit a higher level of athlete because it's my understanding that their active duty can be deferred until after pro career has ended.

They change their policy on this a lot.  But really  it speaks to how grotesque football has become.  The most militaristic game cannot have a team of soldiers because normal healthy humans do not become defensive tackles. 

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camel at sea

camel at sea 589

Posted
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20 hours ago, SwanderedTalent said:

This is a good time for them to get out of the NFL Feeder tier of programs, where they haven't belonged since before the Vietnam War. I'm not saying they can't win games at this level. They do it all the time. I'm saying this (hypothetical) level exists to populate NFL rosters and compete for CFP playoff national championships. The service academics, love them as I do, don't need to be trying to do either of those things. This is a good time (again, hypothetically) to drop them to I-AA where I bet they could be beasts again.

Or leave them at I-A and make the Independents a conference, whatever. There's no magic to 64, it can be 71 if we want, but (one more time, for this specific hypothetical), we need eight conferences to produce eight conference champions for the playoff. So I'm not sure where they fit, anyway.

and yes I'm going to call them I-A and I-AA until I die

If they don't qualify for the top tier because they don't populate NFL rosters, nor do they compete for the CFP... then you probably have to kick out a LOT of schools from the top tier.  There are a lot of schools who don't do either of those things.

For the military, top tier football is about service academy recruiting.  They need those big TV games to run their ads.  

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SwanderedTalent

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5 minutes ago, camel at sea said:

If they don't qualify for the top tier because they don't populate NFL rosters, nor do they compete for the CFP... then you probably have to kick out a LOT of schools from the top tier.  There are a lot of schools who don't do either of those things.

For the military, top tier football is about service academy recruiting.  They need those big TV games to run their ads.  

On your first point, I'd be more than happy with a I-AA that didn't include Indiana or Rutgers or Wake Forest but since they're conference-affiliated deadweight, it seems pointless to advocate that. There also aren't the same kind of mission and admission compromises necessary for large public universities to compete-- to me it's not the same thing. 

On your second point, <shrug>, the service branches can run ads without actually being in the games. Nissan has a Heisman House, not a varsity program. 

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On 7/1/2020 at 8:28 AM, Al_4_ISU said:

Pretty hard to argue that.

Real easy.  Military academies for their own good shouldn't be in the P5.

If you look at rankings in the BCS era, Boise and BYU are clearly out front.  Then its Houston, Cincinnati and UCF.

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SDSU has facility issues.

Boise won't make it because they don't look anything like a P5 school with their academic profile.  Also, they don't do much well other than football.  But if you are talking solely football merit, its hard to argue.

The Big 12 looked at SDSU and UNLV but didn't include them.  Their list (in no particular order):

BYU

Houston

Cincinnati

UCF

USF

UConn

Tulane

SMU

Rice

Colorado St.

Air Force

 

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Pancho

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It’s not the P5 alignment news we want to hear, but the SWAC has added Florida A&M and Bethune-Cookman from the MEAC,. 

Nawf Carolina A&T also leaving the MEAC to go to the Big Souf Conference. 

Good and bad for HBCUs, but these are better conferences for all 3 schools. 

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bullet 1596

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https://www.oleantimesherald.com/sports/national/pac-12-says-it-paid-schools-32-2-million-in-fiscal-2018-19-fourth-most/article_63ae56d2-f2fb-5e02-a493-95c6c596ba4b.html

https://www.msn.com/en-us/Sports/ncaafb/power-five-conferences-had-over-29-billion-in-revenue-in-fiscal-2019-new-tax-records-show/ar-BB16AB5g

https://www.usnews.com/news/sports/articles/2020-05-29/big-12-revenue-distribution-down-only-slightly-amid-pandemic

 

 

Distribution news.

Pac 12 $32.2 million per school.

SEC $44.6 million per school (from another article-this mentions that 13 averaged 45.3 and Ole Miss got less because of probation)

Big 10 Around $50 million.  12 full members got $55.6 million.  Haven't seen anywhere yet what Rutgers and Maryland got but it was significantly less.

Big 12 $38.8 million per school (pac 12 article says $33.8 which looks like a typo)

ACC 28.8 million per full member school (varied from $27.6 to $34 for Clemson; Notre Dame got $6.8 million)

 

Note that the playoff was at the Orange Bowl that year.  That cost the ACC about $2 million per school.

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On 7/1/2020 at 11:17 PM, notre dame joe said:

They change their policy on this a lot.  But really  it speaks to how grotesque football has become.  The most militaristic game cannot have a team of soldiers because normal healthy humans do not become defensive tackles. 

This is the biggest impediment to the SAs competing consistently at a high level.  Body types/ physical standards for service keep them from getting the OL and DL candidates they need to be placed in a Big Televen or Big East slate on the regular. These standards have been somewhat relaxed in recent years; but at a certain point, these guys still have a service commitment to fulfill.  It gets tight real quick on a sub or in a cockpit or an M1-Abrams.  Their flexbone scheme is all that allows them to hang with the big boys now.   They're gonna fight you like no other and play their asses off, but they don't have the hogmollies in the trenches to do it week in and week out.   That's why Navy plays Notre Dame every year and Army will play Stanford or OU; but then the slate is full of Bucknell, Fordham, and Old Dominion.

The money involved with both Army/Navy/AF brass and the nationwide following also keeps them a seat at the adults table.  They belong in the Patriot League like they play in other sports, but for football, they refuse to drop down.  

Not sure it will ever happen...

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Thiefery

Thiefery 4942

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With this pandemic, I feel that the Big 12 is in a really good place with just 10 schools.  Seeing all these other scenarios of making 16, 20, 22 schools in one conference is a joke.  Because it's great to play one school in the same conference once every 7 years.

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Al_4_ISU

Al_4_ISU 12394

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3 hours ago, Thiefery said:

With this pandemic, I feel that the Big 12 is in a really good place with just 10 schools.  Seeing all these other scenarios of making 16, 20, 22 schools in one conference is a joke.  Because it's great to play one school in the same conference once every 7 years.

And it's really pointing out how little value programs in populated places that have no fanbase or draw will have going forward.

The major forces that shaped the 2010ish round of realignment have been rendered all but meaningless a decade later.

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notre dame joe

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5 hours ago, Thiefery said:

With this pandemic, I feel that the Big 12 is in a really good place with just 10 schools.  Seeing all these other scenarios of making 16, 20, 22 schools in one conference is a joke.  Because it's great to play one school in the same conference once every 7 years.

Highlighted when a pandemic forces you to have an extra game against Maryland.

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LTbear

LTbear 4152

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34 minutes ago, Longboard Horn said:

With the pandemic, would not be surprised if in the future some of these lesser teams in the power 5s are dropped to the G5.

I also wouldn't be entirely surprised if several G5 teams have to shut it down. Hope not though. 

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LTbear

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2 minutes ago, Longboard Horn said:

G5 teams no. That's more of a FCS, D2 and D3 concern.

I've kinda wondered if this could go either way. My first instinct was that smaller schools would be in more trouble, but on the other hand, smaller programs have waaaaay less costs to run the program; salaries are so much cheaper and everything and they're not nearly as reliant on TV revenue. So I thought perhaps some G5 of even lower P5 might take the biggest hit. 

 

Obviously I don't know, just thinking out loud. 

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DeadArmadillo

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20 hours ago, Al_4_ISU said:

And it's really pointing out how little value programs in populated places that have no fanbase or draw will have going forward.

The major forces that shaped the 2010ish round of realignment have been rendered all but meaningless a decade later.

I've always looked at what's happening with regard to conference alignment and the Rutgers / Maryland acquisition.  Then I come to the conclusion that the only thing that determines your value is how many people go out of their way to watch you play football. Not saying that there aren't other factors, but that the majority of it

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SwanderedTalent

SwanderedTalent 5761

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32 minutes ago, DeadArmadillo said:

Then I come to the conclusion that the only thing that determines your value is how many people go out of their way to watch you play football.

as we shift towards the inevitable 64/68/70ish "P5 only" super-league, this becomes ever more true

right now, the Big Ten subsidizes what would otherwise be completely non-competitive programs-- Indiana, Rutgers, Illinois, Purdue, etc. when the P5 breaks away from G5, I think the P5 will be a lot more likely to ask "why are we paying Indiana to play football?" than it is today.

or to say it another way, the answer of "they're a traditional member of our 120-yr old conference" will stop being a good reason to subsidize their football program

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Al_4_ISU

Al_4_ISU 12394

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20 hours ago, SwanderedTalent said:

as we shift towards the inevitable 64/68/70ish "P5 only" super-league, this becomes ever more true

right now, the Big Ten subsidizes what would otherwise be completely non-competitive programs-- Indiana, Rutgers, Illinois, Purdue, etc. when the P5 breaks away from G5, I think the P5 will be a lot more likely to ask "why are we paying Indiana to play football?" than it is today.

or to say it another way, the answer of "they're a traditional member of our 120-yr old conference" will stop being a good reason to subsidize their football program

I definitely agree with this.

Half of the ACC is in this boat.  Why in the hell is Wake Forest playing football against Clemson?  Their stadium holds literally half of what ours does, and lord knows we ain't a blue blood either.  Boston College - same thing.  They were good in the 80's, but no one gives a fuck now.  Duke basketball is a bona fide blue blood, but no one gives a shit about their football program (even if they've been solidish under Cutcliffe), and so on.

It blew me away during the 2010 realignment when programs like Wake, Duke, BC, Washington State, Northwestern, etc that had no fans but are in stable conferences were considered locks to stay in the P5 while everyone had KSU and us, a couple of extremely well supported programs, were assumed to be headed to the Missouri Valley.

Give A Shit is a major currency these days.  Going forward, programs with legitimate Give A Shit are going to be who comprises the P5 super league.

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Hurtlocker

Hurtlocker 2208

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Imagining a world where college football has relegation and promotion

Quote

Perhaps Sewanee's move was inevitable. The Tigers were bad, and football was hardly a cash cow in those days. But what if, instead, Sewanee had kept plugging along, happy just to be a part of the SEC party? Might it now be collecting $50 million a year from the league and still finishing 0-8 in conference play, its fans cheering along -- "S-E-C! S-E-C!" -- as the Crimson Tide roll toward another playoff berth?

Quote

From 2015 through 2019, Kansas (3-42 in conference play), Rutgers (4-40), Oregon State (8-37) and Arkansas (9-31) have the worst records in their respective leagues, and the ACC would enjoy the drama of a three-way tie between Boston College, Syracuse and Duke (all 14-26). The Orange would be our relegation loser based on the largest average margin of defeat.

On the flip side, App State (35-5), Boise State (33-7), Temple (30-10), Western Michigan (28-12) and Western Kentucky (27-13) would represent each Group of 5 league, and Arkansas State (31-9), San Diego State (29-11), Memphis (29-11), Navy (27-13) and Toledo (27-13) would round out a 10-team bowl battle for a shot at promotion. (Note: In this case, we'll use records vs. Power 5 as the tiebreaker for inclusion.)

The upside to this plan is promoted teams would get four years to build before the next round of relegation, and one bad season wouldn't doom a team to an epic demise. Still, we run into issues. The bowl-battle model for the Group of 5 would heavily reward teams with the best personnel that year rather than throughout the four-year window. And where is the immediacy and drama? Without that, there's no hefty TV payday, and without that, there's far less incentive to make the plan work.

 

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kopp0e

kopp0e 1135

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Posted
On 7/23/2020 at 7:51 AM, Al_4_ISU said:

I definitely agree with this.

Half of the ACC is in this boat.  Why in the hell is Wake Forest playing football against Clemson?  Their stadium holds literally half of what ours does, and lord knows we ain't a blue blood either.  Boston College - same thing.  They were good in the 80's, but no one gives a fuck now.  Duke basketball is a bona fide blue blood, but no one gives a shit about their football program (even if they've been solidish under Cutcliffe), and so on.

It blew me away during the 2010 realignment when programs like Wake, Duke, BC, Washington State, Northwestern, etc that had no fans but are in stable conferences were considered locks to stay in the P5 while everyone had KSU and us, a couple of extremely well supported programs, were assumed to be headed to the Missouri Valley.

Give A Shit is a major currency these days.  Going forward, programs with legitimate Give A Shit are going to be who comprises the P5 super league.

No doubt, good points, Iowa State deserves a slot in any power conference configuration/ loyal fans/ great academics & good rival (-1991 & 2017)...

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