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Realignment talk not going away


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3 hours ago, Al_4_ISU said:

Exactly.

It seems pretty clear to me that the Big 10 and Big 12 are very similar in terms of strength, as is the SECe.  The SEC west is tougher than either, and the Pac 12 and ACC (sans Clemson) early clearly worse.

Power conference strength goes about like this:

SECw

Big 10e

Big 12

SECe

Big 10w

ACC/Pac 12

So it would greatly help the national title prospects of the University of Arkansas to move into the Big12.  

 

For Nebraska it's a almost a wash. 

 

But OU cannot play itself.  So they would be moving tier 1 opponents onto their path with a move to an adjacent conference.  So the noisiest fan base about CR is trying to make it harder on themselves.  

Clemson is in the same boat, but their fans seem to know that you don't mess with a good thing.

 

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9 minutes ago, notre dame joe said:

So it would greatly help the national title prospects of the University of Arkansas to move into the Big12.  

 

For Nebraska it's a almost a wash. 

 

But OU cannot play itself.  So they would be moving tier 1 opponents onto their path with a move to an adjacent conference.  So the noisiest fan base about CR is trying to make it harder on themselves.  

Clemson is in the same boat, but their fans seem to know that you don't mess with a good thing.

 

"Greatly help?"  Nah.  Slightly improve their chances?  Sure... maybe.

Let's not go full aggy here and act like the SEC West is some unstoppable juggernaut.  It has Alabama, so of course it's tough to win it in any given year.  Aside from that, though, there's usually one other good team.  And then a bunch of meh-to-crap.  Last year for example  the ags were the other "good" team while LSU, Auburn, Arkansas, Ole Miss, and Miss State, ranged from fairly crappy to really unbelievably crappy.  This is not the 1980s/90s NFC East we're talking about.

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24 minutes ago, utee94 said:

"Greatly help?"  Nah.  Slightly improve their chances?  Sure... maybe.

Let's not go full aggy here and act like the SEC West is some unstoppable juggernaut.  It has Alabama, so of course it's tough to win it in any given year.  Aside from that, though, there's usually one other good team.  And then a bunch of meh-to-crap.  Last year for example  the ags were the other "good" team while LSU, Auburn, Arkansas, Ole Miss, and Miss State, ranged from fairly crappy to really unbelievably crappy.  This is not the 1980s/90s NFC East we're talking about.

Yeah Alabama is a juggernaut right now and that, um, tide is raising all boats.   Outside LSU's Burrow title, the rest haven't faired so well in the post season.

Arkansas is kind of fucked either way at the moment.   While they could stop getting piss-pounded by Alabama and LSU every year, its not like they're automatically going to beat anyone in the B12 besides Kansas every year either.   

To a certain extent that holds true for Nebraska, but their chance to win their division seems much higher in the West than running the Big 12.

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With the NIL and schools moving up and down I see a few issues there.

While there might be some schools that all of the sudden become competitive how long can the NIL payments hold on before the overall university program takes advantage of winning to become more self sustainable. Here in Texas there is one school that is subsidizing from $25+ million per year from 2013 to 2017, then $31 million for 2018 and fucking $48 million for 2019 and who knows how much for 20covid. They have had $4, $6, $6, $8. $10, $9.6 million in donations over that same period. You start shifting $3 or $4 million per year of those donations to the university over into the hole filled pockets of "ballas" and "playas" and that is just that much more that needs to come from the academic side to fill the gaps. Unless of course that program can win enough to attract enough new fans and higher ticket prices to replace those donor dollars with ticket sales and small donor dollars for seat licenses.

But that would mean about doubling their current ticket sales revenues to replace that donor money now going to the pockets of athlete students. Can that program start winning fast enough to at least keep that academic subsidy from exploding more to replace those repurposed donations or will actual students get pissed off enough (especially while losing) to fight back about subsidizing an athletics program to the tune of $50 million per year so that "ballas" can get paid to come and win 7 games a year while fucking off school and making a mockery of a free education offer?

And will those donors that are now shifting their dollars over to pay players keep that up for the long term if the winning does not start soon enough for them. And if they decide the "investment" in "playas" and "ballas" is not worth the results are they going to shift their money back to university donation to the overall athletics department or are they going to take their ball and go home and say that it is time for someone else to "invest" and they will come back when things are better?

Are some programs that still are way behind on facilities going to be able to get enough paid players to be able to win at a level that will bring in enough revenues to improve the facilities enough to remain competitive?

You are also looking at a possible battle between coaches and NIL money payers for who to recruit. At a program like Alabama it is easy for some NIL playa payer to believe "well I can just say every Alabama football player is going to get $3,000 a year from me now Nick keep doing what you are doing. But at fuck off U is that NIL playa payer going to do the same for a coach and program that has been historically .500 for about 3 decades? Or are they going to want to target who gets paid and wade in there and make those decisions as a "recruiter"? And can that program and that NIL playa payer get shit right before someone gets pissed off at someone else and it all falls apart over who is responsible for the weak dicks and losers with pockets full of money still winning at a .500 pace over several years or worse some of the ones that took a large amount to come to the university transferring out when the wins do not come. Take aggy for example if those two guys that just got $10,000 each to talk to chin pubes at texags decide to transfer out how does that work? they have been paid was there any contract to stay at aggy for a season or 3 seasons or can they go into the portal tomorrow? This becomes more critical for a program trying to "move up" from a G5 position and with limited NIL playa payers and the need to win now or watch biggly paid playas leave for other programs.

Lastly I would not be surprised at all to see a some Big 10 members look to make things happen Minnesota has already said they will not be in the massive pay players business (and yes I know it is not the university paying and the university is not allowed to). I am not seeing Purdue, Rutgers, Maryland, Indiana, Illinois, Northwestern and maybe a couple of others really being eager to get into bidding wars with others (through their supporters paying dollars directly to players). I think a large portion of the ACC is not up for that especially the private schools.

I think you will see a few flash in the pan G5 programs (and their donors) try and go all in to have a string of 4 or 5 big seasons with the hope they will be there standing when it all blows up, but I imagine more than likely it will result in academic side subsidies exploding to replace donor dollars going to the pockets of the ballas, only slightly better results, regular students getting pissed off when they see all the money they are paying to provide facilities and coaching for "playas to play", and then NIL playa payers and coaches getting crosswise when the wins do not materialize immediately and it all blows up with donors walking away, players transferring left and right, and regular students restricting what can be spent of their money on athletics overall. 

That will more than likely blow up a lot of G5 conferences and programs before Minnesota, Syracuse, Indiana, Purdue, WSU, Oregon State, and others fall apart or use their majority or super majority to reign things in at the conference level. With the exception of USC and MAYBE UCLA NO ONE (including Oregon) is looking to watch donor dollars flow away from the university and directly to playas. And a lot of them cannot afford for that to happen unless the winning really picks up.

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4 hours ago, Hurtlocker said:

Yeah this is going to be interesting.   There is a battle per school between investment in a sport (and MBB to a lesser degree and its also much cheaper) that provides a giant PR opportunity for the school at large, which increases applications/attendance/etc far outside the investment, but kind of only if successful - e.g. the Flutie Factor.   Spending it and not having success is a major drain on finances.   I don't see any schools in the Big12/Big Ten/SEC even considering such a move and only a handful of possibilities between the ACC/Pac12 (Wake/BC/WSU/OrgSt - that's all I can think of).  When getting into the AAC and lower though, their could be a mass exodus from FBS to FCS.

What I'm really curious about is how it will affect the P5 over the next 5 years or so.   Clearly bag men are now legal, so that's not really an advantage, it already occurred.   But just how many players at each school and/or sport will be able to capitalize on it.    Instead of consolidating power to a few, will it even the odds more if being the BMOC in a non-Blue Blood pays out the same or more with less competition than the blue bloods?   Will that help the second and third tier schools gain better talent as 4*s looking to get more exposure choose open opportunities over piling onto crowded talent classes?

The next big jump in institutional investment may not be TVs in lockers, it may be who can help you maximize athlete's NIL business acumen from day one of stepping on campus

I think Northwestern might rethink athletics, and Rutgers may realize they made a huge mistake (or the other way around). I fully agree with your P5 thoughts, I think much of the FBS will drop to FCS, or maybe form a separate division in which they can be eligible for bowl games but not the CFP. Let's be real, there are a few teams from MWC and AAC that pop up every now and then and are formidable against the best of the P5, but I can't think of any program from CUSA, Sunbelt, or MAC that have any realistic chance at being competitive in a CFP. I'd be open to given MWC and AAC champs automatic entry into the CFP, but not the others. 

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4 hours ago, notre dame joe said:

So it would greatly help the national title prospects of the University of Arkansas to move into the Big12.  

For Nebraska it's a almost a wash. 

But OU cannot play itself.  So they would be moving tier 1 opponents onto their path with a move to an adjacent conference.  So the noisiest fan base about CR is trying to make it harder on themselves.  

Clemson is in the same boat, but their fans seem to know that you don't mess with a good thing.

 

Agreed on Arky.  They're basically Oklahoma State but with much deeper pockets.  That's a Top 15 football program in the Big 12 with the right hire at HC.  Ironically, they'd start winning some recruiting battles against SECW schools, that they lose now, if they were actually winning in the Big 12 with a number next to their name on Saturdays.  

Nebraska is a wash competitively.  But their ability to recruit improves with a move back to the Big 12.  Their fan interest/happiness probably improves, too.  

IMO, most of the noise at OU has been Astroturf for a few years now.  The noise is relevant in the sense that someone (inside OU or outside) is trying to influence things in a particular direction.  But I don't think there' s a big groundswell of CR angst.  The OU realignment thread is basically the same 8 posters arguing the same points over and over.

 

 

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CFB would be so much better if we did realignment to 4 leagues that put ALL of the old rivalries back together and a group of 72 teams split off and formed their own division. Lets settle rivalries on the field and not message board insults in place of games or TV revenue pissing matches.  You can essentially put every traditional rivalry game back together and build the sport nationally if you did this below.

 
B1G: OSU, Mich., ND, MSU, Wisky, Ia., Illinois, NU, Ind., Purdue, Mn., USC, UCLA, UW, Or., Cal, Stanford, AZ.
**this gives ND all of its big rivalries in conference and a wide footprint and brings back all the old Rose Bowl rivalries. So even though this conference spans the widest area it feels natural in that it brings back a lot of rivalries even if some are not traditional season games.

ACC: PSU, Maryland, Rutgers, WVU, Clemson, NC, NC ST., Duke, BC, Va Tech, Va., WF, Ga. Tech, Syrcuse, Pitt UCONN, Cincy, UCF or USF,
brings back old Big East rivalry games and gives them PSU to headline the league for football and PSU is set up as king of the region for recruiting, exposure.

Big 12: UT, OU, Neb., A&M, Arky, TT, KU, KSU, ISU, Missouri, Col., Baylor, TCU, ASU, Utah, BYU, Boise St., Houston
Brings back the rivalries mentioned earlier.

SEC: Bama, Auburn, LSU, Ole Miss, MSU, Fl., Ga., KY, Tn., SC, Vandy, FSU, Miami, Louisville, Cincy Plus 2 more. also, if SEC wanted all of Florida they add UCF & USC and the ACC takes others.
This gives the SEC two past football schools in FSU & Miami and they pretty much own the state of Florida. Louisville and Cincy fit in the northern footprint well and add basketball.

You can argue the last team or two in the B12/ACC & SEC but what fan wouldn't enjoy seeing these rivalries come back all within conferences? They are all pretty equal and engage all regions of the country and then division 1 can negotiate their contract as one. The only two real rivalry games might be PSU vs OSU and Clemson vs FSU but PSU is set in a good position again and that leaves FSU vs Clemson but I think consolidating all 3 Florida teams trumps that.

Each league gets to 18 and conferences have 6-8 teams compete in conference playoffs to determine the CFP. Bowl games are finished. Each league has a single division standings and goes to 10 games. Lock in 3-4 rivals and against other teams play them at a frequency that maximizes content of games. Some may be 2 out of every 3 years, some may be 2 out of 4 years, 1 out of 3 yrs or even 1 out of 4 years. You design the matchups so you get the most desired set of matchups. If 6 or 8 teams make the conference playoffs that gives enough access it doesn't have to be rotated equally and for teams to worry about advantages of playing a team too often.

Can any college football fans argue what we have is better than this? I dont think so.

 

 

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4 hours ago, utee94 said:

"Greatly help?"  Nah.  Slightly improve their chances?  Sure... maybe.

Let's not go full aggy here and act like the SEC West is some unstoppable juggernaut.  It has Alabama, so of course it's tough to win it in any given year.  Aside from that, though, there's usually one other good team.  And then a bunch of meh-to-crap.  Last year for example  the ags were the other "good" team while LSU, Auburn, Arkansas, Ole Miss, and Miss State, ranged from fairly crappy to really unbelievably crappy.  This is not the 1980s/90s NFC East we're talking about.

Becoming 1% to win the conference is a massive improvement for a team that was 0.1% to win the conference.  Ventuple? 🤓

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3 hours ago, Win5002 said:

CFB would be so much better if we did realignment to 4 leagues that put ALL of the old rivalries back together and a group of 72 teams split off and formed their own division. Lets settle rivalries on the field and not message board insults in place of games or TV revenue pissing matches.  You can essentially put every traditional rivalry game back together and build the sport nationally if you did this below.

 
B1G: OSU, Mich., ND, MSU, Wisky, Ia., Illinois, NU, Ind., Purdue, Mn., USC, UCLA, UW, Or., Cal, Stanford, AZ.
**this gives ND all of its big rivalries in conference and a wide footprint and brings back all the old Rose Bowl rivalries. So even though this conference spans the widest area it feels natural in that it brings back a lot of rivalries even if some are not traditional season games.

ACC: PSU, Maryland, Rutgers, WVU, Clemson, NC, NC ST., Duke, BC, Va Tech, Va., WF, Ga. Tech, Syrcuse, Pitt UCONN, Cincy, UCF or USF,
brings back old Big East rivalry games and gives them PSU to headline the league for football and PSU is set up as king of the region for recruiting, exposure.

Big 12: UT, OU, Neb., A&M, Arky, TT, KU, KSU, ISU, Missouri, Col., Baylor, TCU, ASU, Utah, BYU, Boise St., Houston
Brings back the rivalries mentioned earlier.

SEC: Bama, Auburn, LSU, Ole Miss, MSU, Fl., Ga., KY, Tn., SC, Vandy, FSU, Miami, Louisville, Cincy Plus 2 more. also, if SEC wanted all of Florida they add UCF & USC and the ACC takes others.
This gives the SEC two past football schools in FSU & Miami and they pretty much own the state of Florida. Louisville and Cincy fit in the northern footprint well and add basketball.

You can argue the last team or two in the B12/ACC & SEC but what fan wouldn't enjoy seeing these rivalries come back all within conferences? They are all pretty equal and engage all regions of the country and then division 1 can negotiate their contract as one. The only two real rivalry games might be PSU vs OSU and Clemson vs FSU but PSU is set in a good position again and that leaves FSU vs Clemson but I think consolidating all 3 Florida teams trumps that.

Each league gets to 18 and conferences have 6-8 teams compete in conference playoffs to determine the CFP. Bowl games are finished. Each league has a single division standings and goes to 10 games. Lock in 3-4 rivals and against other teams play them at a frequency that maximizes content of games. Some may be 2 out of every 3 years, some may be 2 out of 4 years, 1 out of 3 yrs or even 1 out of 4 years. You design the matchups so you get the most desired set of matchups. If 6 or 8 teams make the conference playoffs that gives enough access it doesn't have to be rotated equally and for teams to worry about advantages of playing a team too often.

Can any college football fans argue what we have is better than this? I dont think so.

 

 

This shit sucks, try again 

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42 minutes ago, maninblack said:

Right idea but blew it with the mix

Trying to force everything down into 4 super conferences is too messy and too complicated.  It's also unnecessary in an expanded playoff.  You can just fix the five conferences in place by shuffling a few teams around, though.

 

B12N:  OU, OSU, KU,  KSU,  Nebr, ISU
B12S:   UT, TTU, Mizzou, TCU, Arky, BU

B1GW:  Min, Iowa, Ill, NW, Wisky, MSU, Mich
B1GE:  MD, Purd, Indi, Rutg, Cuse, PSU, tOSU

ACCC:  FSU, CU, UL, BC, WF, UVA 
ACCA:  UM, GT, WVU, Pitt, DU, UNC

SECE:   UF, UGA, Aub, USC, NC St, VT, UK
SECW: Tenn, LSU, Bama, A&M, MSU, OM, Vandy

The PAC can stay the way it is.  If someone decides CU needs to return to the Big 12 for interest/rivalry purposes, you could probably put them in the North and add Houston to the South.  The PAC could backfill the Buffs with SDSU.  The Aztecs are competitive, their academics are P5 worthy, and there is no pro football team in that market anymore.

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16 minutes ago, camel at sea said:

Trying to force everything down into 4 super conferences is too messy and too complicated.  It's also unnecessary in an expanded playoff.  You can just fix the five conferences in place by shuffling a few teams around, though.

since all of this is hypothetical fan fiction I don't care

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7 hours ago, camel at sea said:

The OU realignment thread is basically the same 8 posters arguing the same points over and over.

 

 

So much truth here. I used to read and participate in it regularly years ago, but it's long since become a screaming match between a few extreme internet egos. 

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22 hours ago, 'stache said:

I think Northwestern might rethink athletics, and Rutgers may realize they made a huge mistake (or the other way around). I fully agree with your P5 thoughts, I think much of the FBS will drop to FCS, or maybe form a separate division in which they can be eligible for bowl games but not the CFP. Let's be real, there are a few teams from MWC and AAC that pop up every now and then and are formidable against the best of the P5, but I can't think of any program from CUSA, Sunbelt, or MAC that have any realistic chance at being competitive in a CFP. I'd be open to given MWC and AAC champs automatic entry into the CFP, but not the others. 

Agreed, imagine if the MAC and company dropped down into FCS, increasing the talent in that level over all, then played in the Spring?   They could actually get TV revenue that blows MACtion out of the water.

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Um, holy fucking shit?

2 minutes ago, Chuckie Finster said:

The only thing that gives me pause is that Zwerneman is an aggy hack. 

Leaking something like this only for the SEC to publicly state they have no interest is texags' wet dream.

Also, a story this huge and Zwerneman breaks it? Seems unlikely

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5 minutes ago, 4th&Five said:

Doing this right before the playoffs expand seems…not smart. 

Well, if the Big 12 no longer exists, it changes the calculus a bunch. SEC would occupy most at-large spots and get a lot more money. 

The thing I don't get is more that the SEC just got a new TV deal and adding two would take the per team amount away unless there's something baked in for this scenario. 

Flipside, could this be a way to fold the LHN into the ESPN property to save ESPN long term $ and be moved over to the SEC as a whole?

Edited by mdmost
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2 minutes ago, closetojumping said:

HOLY FUCKING SHIT!

 

Chuckie, all you need to know is what the ATM AD just said publicly. They're flatfooted here. Also, given SEC behavior at the admin levels across their respective orgs, that kind of response in public is going to really fucking piss off their brethren. You don't go against the family in public. 

This shit is interesting.

Yeah, the Aggie AD response (paired with Sankey's no comment) definitely raised my eyebrows.

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3 minutes ago, mdmost said:

I think aggy reporter put it out to maybe throw a wrench in something that might be already down the road. 

This.   They used f'n Brent to write this story to try to kill it before it got more momentum.  I would place a large bet this is aggy playing desperate checkers.   At least go get some national writer to break this.  Not a known Aggy homer.

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3 minutes ago, mdmost said:

I think aggy reporter put it out to maybe throw a wrench in something that might be already down the road. 

From the immediate reactions this may be exactly correct. The story says an announcement could happen in "a matter of weeks" so talks have been happening for a bit but no way they wanted the story out yet. This leak would only help to scuttle things. 

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7 minutes ago, closetojumping said:

HOLY FUCKING SHIT!

 

Chuckie, all you need to know is what the ATM AD just said publicly. They're flatfooted here. Also, given SEC behavior at the admin levels across their respective orgs, that kind of response in public is going to really fucking piss off their brethren. You don't go against the family in public. 

This shit is interesting.

aggy is always the last to know. 

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2 minutes ago, JFKFC said:

1.) I don't want this to happen for a zillion reasons.

2.) I hare the Big 12 and want out.

3.) Am I the only one who wants Texas in the Big 10?!?

1. I really don't care anymore. I think the program needs a shot in the arm, recruiting wise, that the SEC could deliver.

2. Same but it's a bit cheap since we can't even win it currently.

3. Hell no. The Big 10 is awful outside of 3 teams. Selfishly I like the Pac 12 (road trips to the west coast) but that's not a football conference. If we care about football, we go to the football conference of record. 

Edited by mdmost
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1 minute ago, JFKFC said:

1.) I don't want this to happen for a zillion reasons.

2.) I hare the Big 12 and want out.

3.) Am I the only one who wants Texas in the Big 10?!?


After the debacle that was last fall, I’m not sure I want anything to do with the Big 10. 

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8 minutes ago, closetojumping said:

HOLY FUCKING SHIT!

 

Chuckie, all you need to know is what the ATM AD just said publicly. They're flatfooted here. Also, given SEC behavior at the admin levels across their respective orgs, that kind of response in public is going to really fucking piss off their brethren. You don't go against the family in public. 

This shit is interesting.

The mere fact that the ags weren’t consulted before any talks of adding Texas makes this all worth it.

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