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Realignment talk not going away


The Tower

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1 minute ago, Hagbard Celine said:

absolutely this.  we learned this lesson last time.   it doesn't matter what we do.  as was the case last time, we didn't do *anything* and misery, uncle tom, and aggy fabricated a BIG LIE narrative about Big Evil Texas.  they shit on us on the way out the door, tried to destroy what was left behind, and then blamed the LHN which was created after they left.

it doesn't matter what we do or say, we are going to be the object of scorn, so 100%, fuck 'em all.

Well yeah. It’s not like unequal revenue sharing and rejecting partial qualifiers were decided solely by us. Aggy also decided not to do the Lone Star Network with us after Dodds offered to go 50/50. 

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1 minute ago, Bill Lumbergh said:

Based on how this broke (aggy mouthpiece trying to screw it up), it seems like the answer is no.

If we want any legitimate chance of this happening, that feels like a good thing.

Major college football reporters are almost certain it's going to happen. This is a little different than back when FCB was going on ESPN spewing his dog shit realignment thoughts.

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20 minutes ago, The Dude said:

The lack of a denial by either school makes me think this might be a play to squeeze Fox.   I guess we might found out next week, if Twitter is to be believed

 

Fuck Fox. And that’s an incredible short game to use a move to the SEC as leverage for another long-term contract with Fox.

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I actually hope the end result of all this is the blue bloods splitting off into their own league. This would allow them to live out their junior NFL fantasy while eliminating the rest of us leaches from the picture so we can continue to play something that more closely resembles college football as we used to know it. Win-win all around.

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14 minutes ago, Bill Lumbergh said:

Definitely agree on aggy, but it seems like a stronger conference presence in Texas stands to help arkie. They've never really recruited Texas that well since they've been in the sec, and this might potentially help them a bit.

They're not going to win many recruitments head to head with these schools, but if they're playing with Texas, aggy, and ou, they're more likely to win recruits who today are picking tcu, OSU, and tech because they want to play closer to home.

Yea.  Arky was kind of struggling when they left the SWC compared to where they were in the 60s and 70s with their recruiting in the Texas.   The move to the SEC did them no favors.   Correct me if wrong but pre SEC and going back to those golden years of Arky, they did pretty well in the DFW, Northeast Texas area with recruits.  

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1 minute ago, Okie State said:

I actually hope the end result of all this is the blue bloods splitting off into their own league. This would allow them to live out their junior NFL fantasy while eliminating the rest of us leaches from the picture so we can continue to play something that more closely resembles college football as we used to know it. Win-win all around.

We already have that. It’s called intramurals.

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38 minutes ago, Rockethorn1978 said:

Let's all get something straight here, It wouldn't matter if Texas did everything right all the time they would still be the "bad guy" to all the fans of other teams in the conference so I don't give two fucks about what they think about Texas wanting to move.

 

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2 minutes ago, Okie State said:

I actually hope the end result of all this is the blue bloods splitting off into their own league. This would allow them to live out their junior NFL fantasy while eliminating the rest of us leaches from the picture so we can continue to play something that more closely resembles college football as we used to know it. Win-win all around.

anchorman GIF

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6 minutes ago, mdmost said:

Another thing I think some are discounting for why the SEC might be in favor of Texas and OU joining, the pandemic and what it did to revenues of the SEC schools. Add Texas and OU to get more money and that makes a nice dent in what you lost last year. I haven't checked lately but I believe the SEC was still behind the Big 10 in revenue the last time it was reported. Add Texas and OU and that's over. 

Change is going to happen it’s a race to 16.  From the sec’s perspective why let the big ten grab the two biggest fish out there

 

add me to the list of surlies who is rooting for ISU to land in the B1G, despite Al’s shit talking.   Good luck to Kansas, psu.  Baylor, tech and tcu can fuck right off

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1 hour ago, Al_4_ISU said:

Agreed.  I've blasted all of them, many times.

And now you're basically doing the same.

I would have to object to this. I get where you are coming from, but if you think we are leaving the same conference that they left I don't know what to tell you. Playing 9 conference games only to have a rematch for the championship is the polar opposite of what the smart conferences are doing. It is a slow ride to hell, where none of the teams can climb to the top and succeed on the national stage.

The Big 12 needed at least two more middle of the road teams to be relevant again. We didn't even know the game was being played the last time the musical chair realignment started up and got caught with our pants down. If the Big 12 can't Arkansas and someone like Nebraska (narrator: they can't), those teams simply don't exist. I have gone on record saying take UCF or Cincy or someone like them to at least get the numbers back up and have multiple conference teams capable of 10 win seasons. But I always had to choke down the puke after typing it.

This is simply good business for Texas. A shocking thing that we aren't really known for, as much shit as we take for doing nothing but looking out for ourselves.

Edit to say that you actually know this. You would have the last Big 12 Championship if this league wasn't a total shit show. 

Edited by jinx
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I haven’t  really seen anybody bring up NIL yet. I don’t know if this SEC move will actually get finalized, but it makes sense as to why we wouldn’t have rolled out some half-baked plan in the first days of NIL. If these guys pull the SEC move off and then roll out a coordinated NIL plan, I’m not gonna listen to any shit talk about Hartzell or CDC until at least next year.

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39 minutes ago, Burt Macklin said:

On the field sure, but they don’t being nearly the ratings or national popularity. You know, the things that would benefit UT and OU. Especially for UT, we’re just propping up programs like Baylor and TCU so they can try to cannibalizes our recruiting and undercut us while they try to grow their program. 

regardless of recent on-field success.  there is no middle class in the Big 12, I.e. programs that help carry the conference, bring in revenue and raise its perception.  There’s not a single school in the Big 12 near a PSU or Wisconsin. So it really is just OU and UT carrying everyone else in the conference. Why would we agree to do that forever? What’s the benefit to either OU or UT? 
 

Again, because they’re in better conferences where conference mates actually bring in some of their own ratings and national prestige. Being in the Big 12 is absolutely hurting OU and UT and that’s why they want to leave.
It’s unfortunate and I hope ISU gets into the Big Ten, but super conferences have been coming for a while and with the Big 12 rights expiring first, OU and UT were always going to be the first dominoes to fall. 

Absolutely agree with all of this. Something that hasn't really been discussed much, that also comes from this, is that the other major conferences have absolutely no need to expand. The Sword of Damocles that had been really only hanging over a few conferences heads is lifted with UT/OU killing the Big 12's status as a power conference. The B1G/ACC/Pac have no need now to expand or die, they can sit back knowing that the SEC isn't likely to poach beyond 16 teams and there aren't better options the Arizona teams or North Carolina or whoever else has been rumored could run off to. What does ISU bring to the B1G? Because if they aren't making everyone more money, and I don't think they do, they're shit out of luck.

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6 minutes ago, Okie State said:

I actually hope the end result of all this is the blue bloods splitting off into their own league. This would allow them to live out their junior NFL fantasy while eliminating the rest of us leaches from the picture so we can continue to play something that more closely resembles college football as we used to know it. Win-win all around.

Salty af.

I feel bad for ISU and OSU. 

TCU, Baylor and Tech?  Not so much.

Edited by The Royal We
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2 minutes ago, Teryor said:

Absolutely agree with all of this. Something that hasn't really been discussed much, that also comes from this, is that the other major conferences have absolutely no need to expand. The Sword of Damocles that had been really only hanging over a few conferences heads is lifted with UT/OU killing the Big 12's status as a power conference. The B1G/ACC/Pac have no need now to expand or die, they can sit back knowing that the SEC isn't likely to poach beyond 16 teams and there aren't better options the Arizona teams or North Carolina or whoever else has been rumored could run off to. What does ISU bring to the B1G? Because if they aren't making everyone more money, and I don't think they do, they're shit out of luck.

B1g will want to add a couple more schools to at least look like they’re close to the sec.  thinking unc and uva.  Larry Scott should’ve let us bring our network.   He killed the pac

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12 minutes ago, Js1 said:

Well yeah. It’s not like unequal revenue sharing and rejecting partial qualifiers were decided solely by us. Aggy also decided not to do the Lone Star Network with us after Dodds offered to go 50/50. 

and let's not forget that aggy were the ONLY SCHOOL that stole the Orphan 5 bailout share.  even corn gave up that money.  only aggy took the money, like a fat little veruca salt.

clones need to direct their ire at one school more than any other which caused all of this.

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1 minute ago, Okie State said:
3 minutes ago, The Royal We said:
Salty af.
I feel bad for ISU and OSU. 
TCU, Baylor and Tech?  Not so much.

Not salty at all. Just think it's where we're headed anyway and probably would be the best end result for everyone.

Maybe.  But the NIL stuff put the wheels in motion on big changes before this realignment news came to light.  Shit was going to change no matter what.

ISU has done everything right and is really cooking at the moment - the timing on this for them is brutal.

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1 minute ago, closetohumping said:

B1g will want to add a couple more schools to at least look like they’re close to the sec.  thinking unc and uva.  Larry Scott should’ve let us bring our network.   He killed the pac

My guesses are:
 

BIG: Iowa State, Kansas(for basketball)
AAC: TCU, Baylor, Tech
ACC: West Virginia, ND
PAC: Kansas State, Oklahoma State

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The skilesare plan: Divisional Pod Structure for determining a Champion in a 16 team football conference. - Reviving this from the Pac 16 discussion years ago and find/replacing.

Too Long, Didn't Read:

1. Allow teams to play the schools in their 4 school region every year.
2. Allow teams to visit the other three regions once a year and have a team from the other 3 regions visit them once a year.
3. Codify the unstated law that 'the season is the playoff'.
4a. Reduce the chance of a championship rematch to below 20%.
4b. Eliminate the possibility of a rematch in a fair way.
4c. Create a fun, exciting new paradigm for conference post season that eliminates the possibility of a rematch in a fair and lucrative way.

I'm a nerd.  A big nerd.  I really like to think about the best way to crown champions in sports.  So when I say that this Pac 16 thing not happening hurts my soul.  It was like an entire imaginative side of my self was enticed by Lucy and then the ball was pulled away at the last second.  And then beat with a club.

I'm putting this out anyway in the hopes that one day the 16 team super conference will become a reality(Hello 2021) and the head of the competition committee will stumble upon this doing a google search.  Also to see if anyone is as crazy as me.

When doing something like this the media message is very important.  The 16 team WAC failed at this and their Quadrant system failed miserably and was confusing to fans.  The media message is this:

Win your division. Win your pod.  Play for the championship.

Here is how it works.  When each team is put in a pod and a divsion:

The Pods:

There are 4 regional pods.  This allows for the maintaining of long standing rivalries.

West:
Texas
Arkansas
OU
A&M

Gulf:
LSU
Missouri
Ole Miss
Miss St.

Central:
Alabama
Auburn
Tenn
Vanderbilt

East:
South Carolina
Kentucky
Florida
Georgia


The Divisions:

The two divisions will be rebalanced every two years to allow for both even competition and road trip diversity.  Each pod sends two teams to each division:

Cotton Division:
Texas
A&M
Missouri
Miss St.
Alabama
Vanderbilt
Kentucky
Florida

Sugar Division:
OU
Arkansas
LSU
Ole Miss
Tenn
Auburn
South Carolina
Georgia

A team plays every team in its pod and every team in its division.  Texas' schedule would look like this:

Arkansas
@OU
A&M
Missouri
@Miss St.
Alabama
@Vanderbilt
Kentucky
@Florida

In this structure Texas gets a road trip to each region every year.  This great for fans as well as for recruiting exposure. 

The following three scenarios can be used for determining a champion in the league:

A.  Traditional Divisional Champions:

After running this model 50,000 times through my computer, a rematch only occurs 19.94% of the time.  This is a 20% improvement over a straight-up 8 team division, play everyone in your division + 2 cross divisional games.  This is a pretty big deal as rematches are against the very core of college footballness.

B.  Alt-Championship:

In this model, the way to guarantee you get a spot in the championship game is to 'Win your Division and win your Pod.'  80% of the time your championship will not need to employ the alt championship rule.  In an alt-championship scenario, the traditional championship game would be a rematch.  The only way this can happen is if the team that won the other division was in the same pod as you.  

Say that Texas and OU both finished 8-1 in their division and there were no other 8-1 teams in the divisions.  Texas and OU compete in the East Pod.  Who won?  Was it a 3 way tie?  If so, only two teams are represented here so use the head to head tie breaker.  Say Texas won their pod. They stay in the championship game and OU is booted out for the next highest place finisher in the the Sugar Division that has not played Texas.  85% of the time this will be the 2nd place team.  This equates to about 3% of the seasons that a 3rd place finisher would end up in the title game.

C.  A new Paradigm.  The Championship weekend.

In this system you do not have one championship game.  You have 2.  The season can end in one of 5 ways.  3 of them are crown a conference champion very cleanly and make up occur in 97.6% of model seasons simulated

Type 1: 61.7%

The 2 divisional winners have not played each other and the 2 second-place winners have not played each other.  In this scenario, you play a Championship game and 3rd/4th place game.

Type 2: 15.6%

The 2 divisional winners have played already but neither has played the 2nd place team from the other league.  The 2 games consist of the Cotton Champ vs. Sugar 2nd and Sugar Champ vs. Cotton 2nd.  The team with the best record against the league after these games is the champion.  The extra 2 games give you the head-to-head ammo you need to break any ties.

Take the following example:

Cotton
---------
1. Missouri   (6-3) Division Record.  
2. Florida  (6-3) Division Record.  Defeated Miss St.
3. Miss St.    (6-3) Division Record.  Lost To Florida
4. Kentucky   (5-4) Overall Record.  Defeated Alabama
5. Alabama   (5-4) Overall Record.  Lost To Kentucky
6. Vanderbilt   (4-5) Division Record.  Defeated Texas
7. Texas  (4-5) Division Record.  Lost To Vanderbilt
8. A&M    (4-5) Division Record.  


Sugar
---------
1. LSU  (6-3) Record. 
2. South Carolina  (5-4) Overall Record.  Defeated Ole Miss
3. Ole Miss   (5-4) Overall Record.  Lost To South Carolina
4. Auburn  (4-5) Record. 
5. Florida State   (3-6) Division Record.  Defeated Tenn
6. Tenn   (3-6) Division Record.  Lost To Florida State
7. Oklahoma  (3-6) Division Record.  Defeated Arkansas
8. Arkansas  (3-6) Division Record.  Lost To Oklahoma

Gulf
---------
1. LSU   (2-1)  Alone in the Division.  
1. Missouri  (2-1) Defeated Miss St.
2. Miss St.  (2-1)  Lost To Missouri  
3. Ole Miss   (0-3) Record.  


Missouri would play South Carolina. and Florida would Play LSU.  If both LSU teams won, leaving two teams at 7-3, LSU would get the trophy because they beat Missouri during their pod play.

In this system, you can never take a week off because you never know when that game may end up being a de facto 'Championship' game.

Type 3:  20.36%

The top two teams haven't played so they play a championship game.  The second two teams have played so we have to break the tie between them and then go get a second team that the tie-winning team hasn't played.

Type 4: 2.02%

In this scenario, the top two teams have played and one of the divisional champs has played the 2nd place team in the other division.  We have to go down a rank and get a different team.  You then decide the champ like in Type 2.

Type 5: 0.2%

In this scenario, All of the 1st and 2nd place teams come from the same pod.  For example, Texas, OU finish 1st in their divisions, and A&M and Arkansas finish 2nd.  Here we just go down to the 3rd place teams to find a match for the Divisional champions.
I love the championship weekend.  I think it is lucrative for TV and really fun for fans.  It also removes the annoyance of rematches that have ruined a number of college football seasons. Plus, more quality football.

This could be so beautiful.  Three great road trips a year. Three exotic home games a year.  Still getting together with our old friend.  Actually using on-the-field performance to determine a champion. 

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1 hour ago, Al_4_ISU said:

I would be absolutely ecstatic if that happened.  I always preferred the Big 12 staying around.

I'd just take anything with playoff access that doesn't involve you guys and OU at this point.  I love Surly and your fanbase has always been good to me, but holy shit you're administrators are just god awful partners.  As are OU, Nebraska, and Aggy, but even if we end up in the same place as Nebraska, we all know they're just another peon.  We've always been a peon, we just want a benevolent dictator that doesn't have their hand on the rug 24/7.

To paraphrase Lord Palmerston, universities don’t have friends or enemies, only interests. 

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2 minutes ago, The Royal We said:

Maybe.  But the NIL stuff put the wheels in motion on big changes before this realignment news came to light.  Shit was going to change no matter what.

ISU has done everything right and is really cooking at the moment - the timing on this for them is brutal.

I laugh at TCU.  If this passes, they just went back to being in an upgraded Mountain West, where they could win out and maybe still not have a shot.  Fuck Gary.  

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Maybe.  But the NIL stuff put the wheels in motion on big changes before this realignment news came to light.  Shit was going to change no matter what.
ISU has done everything right and is really cooking at the moment - the timing on this for them is brutal.
Agreed on NIL. All of it is inevitable.
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4 minutes ago, mdmost said:

Well, come on, we did flirt heavily with the Pac 10 and would've left had aggy been onboard. Then ESPN threw us the LHN and it was all over. 

He said OU and Texas were the two bluebloods always trying to leave that destroyed the conference.  The teams going to the Pac-10 included Oklahoma, OSU, Texas, Texas Tech, A&M, and Colorado. That isn't just the 2 bluebloods. 

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I bet this is as much a reaction to the SCOTUS ruling against the NCAA as it is a TV contract.  if players are going to be paid legit you need more money in your pockets to play.  can't carry anyone else now, gotta be in a league where everyone makes the same amount (at the top) plus then maximize your brand.  Texas can maximize it's brand like no other, add an equal playing field with Bama, Florida, LSU, etc. on the conference money and Texas is back at a financial advantage.  now the question is can Texas play to win (again)?

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1 minute ago, Dbeasy said:

He said OU and Texas were the two bluebloods always trying to leave that destroyed the conference.  The teams going to the Pac-10 included Oklahoma, OSU, Texas, Texas Tech, A&M, and Colorado. That isn't just the 2 bluebloods. 

But you know that was Texas driven and the others were to make it make sense regionally and get past any objections. Come on. 

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2 minutes ago, troph said:

I bet this is as much a reaction to the SCOTUS ruling against the NCAA as it is a TV contract.  if players are going to be paid legit you need more money in your pockets to play.  can't carry anyone else now, gotta be in a league where everyone makes the same amount (at the top) plus then maximize your brand.  Texas can maximize it's brand like no other, add an equal playing field with Bama, Florida, LSU, etc. on the conference money and Texas is back at a financial advantage.  now the question is can Texas play to win (again)?

Yep.  No matter how big we think we are, most recruits will recognize the sec is the alpha conference for perpetuity

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Yes, we are a huge brand. But the SEC is a bigger brand and they have the results to back it up. Recruits want to play there, they want to get into the NFL, and the SEC gets them there. NIL is only going to make the gap that much larger between the SEC and others. Sure, you'll have the random Oregon or USC guy getting a lot, but not as much collectively as the SEC schools will get. 

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1 hour ago, Al_4_ISU said:

Ohio State and Michigan would make more $ joining the SEC.

The B1G has the most lucrative TV contract currently.  It's a good bit higher than that of the SEC.  Ohio State also has one of the most lucrative merchandising contracts.  Bolting to the SEC (which makes zero sense) would not put more money in the coffers.

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9 minutes ago, BurntOrange&White said:

My guesses are:
 

BIG: Iowa State, Kansas(for basketball)
AAC: TCU, Baylor, Tech
ACC: West Virginia, ND
PAC: Kansas State, Oklahoma State

I'm not saying it couldn't happen but, I was told by a good friend who played for WVU that he was told, by the AD, that WVU was told by the ACC that their fan's behavior would forever keep them out of the ACC.

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53 minutes ago, cyatheart said:

I don't blame Texas or OU, not their fault.  (I do hate Nebraska and Aggy though.)  It's really bad for ISU though (and the other orphans).  We did everything we could with the stadium upgrades and increased donations and throwing money at coaches.  The stadium is 65K now and probably was going to 70K, student undergrad is  30K now.   Now our TV revenue probably goes from 40M to like AAC level or like 10M.  (Current AAC is like 7m).  So we can't pay the coach that got us to the top 10 (which is what OU and TX always said we had to do), can't pay the debt off, the enrollment will decline, the local economy gets devastated.  Our best recruiting class ever will all decommit.  Last time this happened it destroyed 2 classes.

Don't discount these measures. I don't think this is over by a long shot. ISU has made itself more attractive over the last decade to potential suitor and if it comes down to a beauty contest every improvement counts. 

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1 minute ago, VABuckeye said:

The B1G has the most lucrative TV contract currently.  It's a good bit higher than that of the SEC.  Ohio State also has one of the most lucrative merchandising contracts.  Bolting to the SEC (which makes zero sense) would not put more money in the coffers.

The B1G sure is shit isn't going to have the most lucrative TV contract if/when TX and OU join the SEC. You are delusional if you don't think this is going to blow the B1G contract out of the fucking water.

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