Realignment talk not going away

[The Grassy Nole 43]

On 8/11/2021 at 9:07 PM, bullet said:

I was including Washington.  Forgot that their MNC was coach's poll, not AP.  Miami won the AP that year.

No worries, had a feeling that may have been your intention to include them but I honestly had to double check to make sure for U Dub.  I like the idea of those who are proven in the pools within the modern era and call it day, but at the same time I kinda feel that College Football requires a "Class System" to survive; otherwise it is essentially an NFL lite and will lose its charm.  

[The Grassy Nole 43]

On 8/12/2021 at 2:33 AM, ImissWallyPryor said:

Where is aggy in all of this?

They ran out of time?

[Gidnik 3268]

1 hour ago, Tex-19 said:

Still not sure what a scheduling alliance accomplishes. But this says they don't want the Big 12 teams which ain't good for us

its not so much about scheduling as it is about voting to keep the SEC from getting what they want on everything. 

 

[billfromlaketravis 11463]

5 hours ago, SimonBolivar said:

They will the second someone invites them. That's been the problem so far.

Maybe so with Kansas and OK State, but by all accounts Tech is letting Baylor and TCU weigh them down. 

[SimonBolivar 10958]

45 minutes ago, billfromlaketravis said:

Maybe so with Kansas and OK State, but by all accounts Tech is letting Baylor and TCU weigh them down. 

Everyone knows that Tech would leave without BU or TCU in a heartbeat. Its just public positioning in case they get no options when the dust settles.

[Aqua Buddha 14590]

Disney has around $17B cash on hand.

Just sayin….

[billfromlaketravis 11463]

I wonder what number the Irate 8 have in mind for their TV revenue? I assume they would gladly take $20 million a year. 

Maybe if ESPN can get them there, a lot of our problems will go away. 

Edited August 14, 2021 by billfromlaketravis

[camel at sea 589]

1 hour ago, billfromlaketravis said:

I wonder what number the Irate 8 have in mind for their TV revenue? I assume they would gladly take $20 million a year. 

Maybe if ESPN can get them there, a lot of our problems will go away. 

Apparently nobody wants to hear it upthread, but the TV numbers for "the other 8" are relatively competitive even without Texas and OU.  It makes sense that *someone* would decide to pay them fair market value for the TV viewers that they are capable of generating.  If Disney/FOX/CBS/etc. can get them to $20M per school for Tier 1/2, then the Big 12 can get well north of $30M per school distribution adding in CFP money, NCAA tourney money, etc.  Add in a significant buyout for the Remaining 8 from UT/OU and a phase-in period financially from the new members, and the Big 12's IR8 come out of this afloat. 

[TrashMaster G 17551]

2 hours ago, billfromlaketravis said:

Maybe so with Kansas and OK State, but by all accounts Tech is letting Baylor and TCU weigh them down. 

Based on what?  A series of Tweets and re-Tweets citing "unnamed sources" over the last few weeks?  Why would you have any confidence in that?

[closetohumping 17440]

2 hours ago, billfromlaketravis said:

Maybe so with Kansas and OK State, but by all accounts Tech is letting Baylor and TCU weigh them down. 

Or all three are ugly as sin?

[Randolph Duke 4034]

1 hour ago, billfromlaketravis said:

I wonder what number the Irate 8 have in mind for their TV revenue? I assume they would gladly take $20 million a year. 

Maybe if ESPN can get them there, a lot of our problems will go away. 

There are only so many time slots in a week. If ESPN already has enough content, the Big 12 remnants aren’t going to have their additional content valued very highly. It will be smaller and regional broadcasters bidding for those rights, not broadcasters willing to pay $160 mil/yr for the eight school package. 

[billfromlaketravis 11463]

11 minutes ago, TrashMaster G said:

Based on what?  A series of Tweets and re-Tweets citing "unnamed sources" over the last few weeks?  Why would you have any confidence in that?

Read The Athletic article. 

[VABuckeye 2472]

4 hours ago, Tex-19 said:

Still not sure what a scheduling alliance accomplishes. But this says they don't want the Big 12 teams which ain't good for us

Hint.  It's not a scheduling alliance.  It's a voting alliance.  Enough votes and power to block anything the SEC wants to do.

[DFW Horn 6123]

7 minutes ago, VABuckeye said:

Hint.  It's not a scheduling alliance.  It's a voting alliance.  Enough votes and power to block anything the SEC wants to do.

What does the SEC want to do that will negatively impact the other P5 leagues? A 12-team playoff benefits them, too. The Pac-12 may actually have a team qualify for a change.

[VABuckeye 2472]

It allows them to block the 12 team playoff or to make sure that the criteria isn't skewed to heavily favor one conference.

[closetohumping 17440]

1 minute ago, VABuckeye said:

It allows them to block the 12 team playoff or to make sure that the criteria isn't skewed to heavily favor one conference.

That's funny, everyone wanted the 12 team playoff 6 weeks ago.

[Not a Sock 2313]

10 minutes ago, VABuckeye said:

It allows them to block the 12 team playoff or to make sure that the criteria isn't skewed to heavily favor one conference.

Well the SEC currently gets 25-50% of the playoff spots so I don't see how this hurts them.

[Dewey 3286]

The goal is for the ACC to hold onto their top teams, the Big 10 not wanting the SEC run away with this thing and the Pac 12 not wanting to lose it's faint grasp on relevance. If the ACC loses a team, or the Big 10 does something they said they wouldn't, this agreement will go down the shitter. I can't imagine all three conferences signing something that locks them all together long term.  So good luck with that. 

A 12 team.playoff is fair, what's not fair is how teams are ranked. Kentucky starts the season 3-0 and you got a lot of voters wanting to put them in the top ten, because SEC. Washington starts 3-0 and those thoughts don't exist, put in the top 20, top 15, that's it. 

[TKthunder2 4990]

3 hours ago, camel at sea said:

Apparently nobody wants to hear it upthread, but the TV numbers for "the other 8" are relatively competitive even without Texas and OU.  It makes sense that *someone* would decide to pay them fair market value for the TV viewers that they are capable of generating.  If Disney/FOX/CBS/etc. can get them to $20M per school for Tier 1/2, then the Big 12 can get well north of $30M per school distribution adding in CFP money, NCAA tourney money, etc.  Add in a significant buyout for the Remaining 8 from UT/OU and a phase-in period financially from the new members, and the Big 12's IR8 come out of this afloat. 

Bob Bowlsby told the Texas State Senate that half of the $28 million was  due to Texas and OU and without them their TV contract would drop to $14 million.  Where are you getting that they’d get $20 million?  Okie State by themselves might justify that but not many of the others, we broke the numbers down in pretty good detail not that many pages back.  Their fair market value is far less than these schools would like to admit.  *Someone* isn’t going to bail them out.

Even if they add the best schools available they are all worth far less than $20 million so while some might help raise their contract value with additional content I still see no way they’ll get $20 million.  BYU’s TV deal is only worth $8 million and that’s with them playing 7 P5 schools, Boise St, Utah St, and USF.  Adding BYU, Houston, UCF, Boise St, Cincy, Memphis or whoever won’t bring much more value.

Some combo of Okie State, Tech, Kansas, and TCU might be worth $20 million in the PAC as they bring new markets and the Central time zone but that is still less than the PAC current payout is.

Disney and FOX both declined to bid on the Big12’s rights in the exclusive negotiating window when they still had Texas and OU, why do you think they’d be willing to pay more money now without them?

Counting some gigantic payday from UT/OU is not wise but you do you.

You’re also assuming the Big12 keeps its P5 status in the CFP and Sugar Bowl which is not a sure thing.  The SEC won’t sign up for that joint Sugar bowl arrangement again.  I assume they’ll switch it over from the Big12#1 to the ACC#1.  The Big 12 better be lobbying the shit out of the Fiesta and Cotton bowls and bribing any mother fucker they can to make sure they can remain a P5 conference otherwise they’ll be left out like the Big East was at the end of the BCS.

This doesn’t even bring up the Big12’s other bowls which are also about to be up for renewal.  I’d expect the Alamo (vs PAC#2) and Cheese-it(Orlando vs ACC#3) to either dump the Big12 or see their level of opponents drop significantly which may change their perceived prestige.  If I was a betting man, I’d think the Alamo switches from the Big12#2/PAC12#2 to the SEC#3/PAC12#2 and the SEC dumps the Texas bowl and the ACC drops the Cheeseit bowl down to their 4th or 5th pick.

[VABuckeye 2472]

Doesn't bother me.  Ohio State becomes an automatic entry.  

[VABuckeye 2472]

3 hours ago, Not a Sock said:

Well the SEC currently gets 25-50% of the playoff spots so I don't see how this hurts them.

50% is a rare event.

[Not a Sock 2313]

35 minutes ago, VABuckeye said:

50% is a rare event.

And still the only conference to pull it off and the only one that has made multiple cases for it and will be adding a team that was regularly one of the other 3.

[The Grassy Nole 43]

18 minutes ago, Not a Sock said:

And still the only conference to pull it off and the only one that has made multiple cases for it and will be adding a team that was regularly one of the other 3.

ACC pulled off two teams last season with ND and Clemson

[GTNY 284]

 

37 minutes ago, The Grassy Nole said:

ACC pulled off two teams last season with ND and Clemson

 

*kind of

Edited August 15, 2021 by GTNY

[Huckleberry 32851]

It wasn't kind of. Last season Notre Dame was 100% an ACC team.

[bullet 1596]

1 hour ago, Huckleberry said:

It wasn't kind of. Last season Notre Dame was 100% an ACC team.

But since they weren't before and won't be again, it was "kind of" the ACC doing it.

[closetohumping 17440]

13 hours ago, TKthunder2 said:

Bob Bowlsby told the Texas State Senate that half of the $28 million was  due to Texas and OU and without them their TV contract would drop to $14 million.  Where are you getting that they’d get $20 million?  Okie State by themselves might justify that but not many of the others, we broke the numbers down in pretty good detail not that many pages back.  Their fair market value is far less than these schools would like to admit.  *Someone* isn’t going to bail them out.

Even if they add the best schools available they are all worth far less than $20 million so while some might help raise their contract value with additional content I still see no way they’ll get $20 million.  BYU’s TV deal is only worth $8 million and that’s with them playing 7 P5 schools, Boise St, Utah St, and USF.  Adding BYU, Houston, UCF, Boise St, Cincy, Memphis or whoever won’t bring much more value.

Some combo of Okie State, Tech, Kansas, and TCU might be worth $20 million in the PAC as they bring new markets and the Central time zone but that is still less than the PAC current payout is.

Disney and FOX both declined to bid on the Big12’s rights in the exclusive negotiating window when they still had Texas and OU, why do you think they’d be willing to pay more money now without them?

Counting some gigantic payday from UT/OU is not wise but you do you.

You’re also assuming the Big12 keeps its P5 status in the CFP and Sugar Bowl which is not a sure thing.  The SEC won’t sign up for that joint Sugar bowl arrangement again.  I assume they’ll switch it over from the Big12#1 to the ACC#1.  The Big 12 better be lobbying the shit out of the Fiesta and Cotton bowls and bribing any mother fucker they can to make sure they can remain a P5 conference otherwise they’ll be left out like the Big East was at the end of the BCS.

This doesn’t even bring up the Big12’s other bowls which are also about to be up for renewal.  I’d expect the Alamo (vs PAC#2) and Cheese-it(Orlando vs ACC#3) to either dump the Big12 or see their level of opponents drop significantly which may change their perceived prestige.  If I was a betting man, I’d think the Alamo switches from the Big12#2/PAC12#2 to the SEC#3/PAC12#2 and the SEC dumps the Texas bowl and the ACC drops the Cheeseit bowl down to their 4th or 5th pick.

I’m not sure the leftovers are worth more than any version of the big east

[jTower 227]

13 hours ago, TKthunder2 said:

You’re also assuming the Big12 keeps its P5 status in the CFP and Sugar Bowl which is not a sure thing.  The SEC won’t sign up for that joint Sugar bowl arrangement again.  I assume they’ll switch it over from the Big12#1 to the ACC#1.

Alternatively, in the current CFP, it might make perfect sense for the SEC to sign the Sugar Bowl deal with the B12-2-2+2-2. The SEC is focusing on CFP slots. The won’t mind sending their #2 or #3 to slaughter the B12 champ in the Sugar Bowl. It may very well help stabilize that conference a little, but it allows the haves to get paid $70m and the have nots can get their $14m. 
 

We will have to wait and see how the 12 team playoff affects the bowl contracts. I guess the Sugar Bowl becomes a playoff game so it’s moot. 

[VABuckeye 2472]

It is a very interesting time in college football off the field.  That is for sure.

[Longboard Horn 40302]

[USNALonghorn 5078]

On 8/14/2021 at 9:14 PM, Not a Sock said:

And still the only conference to pull it off and the only one that has made multiple cases for it and will be adding a team that was regularly one of the other 3.

They’ve pulled off 100% in a “two team playoff” before.

[notre dame joe 187]

On 8/14/2021 at 10:26 AM, The Grassy Nole said:

No worries, had a feeling that may have been your intention to include them but I honestly had to double check to make sure for U Dub.  I like the idea of those who are proven in the pools within the modern era and call it day, but at the same time I kinda feel that College Football requires a "Class System" to survive; otherwise it is essentially an NFL lite and will lose its charm.  

Washington, GaTech and Colorado's runs were noticeably absent from "The U" 30 for 30.  

[6th Street 6392]

18 hours ago, Longboard Horn said:

Lol Pac 12 is Stanley dribbling like an idiot 

[BigHornedLurker 1936]

thats cute, but money talks. 

as long as the BIG isn't sharing money (LOL) , top ACC teams will be eyeing a move 

['stache 21802]

The Big 10 being part of that makes no sense. They are the direct competitor with the SEC. they don’t need it to roll in that much money. I can see maybe with the PAC based on the rose bowl history and relationship, but not to bolster the money or prestige.

[Tex-19 2872]

Rumor mill

 

[closetohumping 17440]

27 minutes ago, BigHornedLurker said:

thats cute, but money talks. 

as long as the BIG isn't sharing money (LOL) , top ACC teams will be eyeing a move 

Their GOR is until 2036.   And as a fan of TCU, you can already calculate how expensive it will be for any of them to exit.  

[Hurtlocker 2212]

I think this alliance should go all premier league:

1) Merge together all the teams of the three discussed, the remaining 8 (49 teams) and maybe the AAC (60 teams)

2) Based on some qualifier like 3-5 year success, rotate the top 32 programs into the League 1, with all games being on the national networks

3) Split those into 4 pods of 8, like SE, NE, Central, West.  Seven games per pod, 3 against other pods, 2 games against L2.

4) League 2 formed by the remaining 28 teams, who have all their games on the League networks (minus the two featured)

5) Two championships:  Pod champs are autos with 4 of wildcards.   Everyone else plays a post season, made for TV, exhibition

6) 8 team advancement/relegation on 3 year windows, or maybe stager it to 2 per year on a 3 year average or something.  Even the toilet bowl that year could be exciting if the loser lost their spot.

Eventually all the crap that fills up conferences would sort itself out and those that were driven to compete would move up.   You'd have enough inventory to spread it around to multiple partners like the NFL does.

The money would be there to pay both leagues a healthy amount.

 

[BigHornedLurker 1936]

36 minutes ago, closetohumping said:

Their GOR is until 2036.   And as a fan of TCU, you can already calculate how expensive it will be for any of them to exit.  

I realize this, and 2030 is when this alliance starts to be on shaky footing

[closetohumping 17440]

19 minutes ago, BigHornedLurker said:

I realize this, and 2030 is when this alliance starts to be on shaky footing

['stache 21802]

48 minutes ago, Hurtlocker said:

I think this alliance should go all premier league:

1) Merge together all the teams of the three discussed, the remaining 8 (49 teams) and maybe the AAC (60 teams)

2) Based on some qualifier like 3-5 year success, rotate the top 32 programs into the League 1, with all games being on the national networks

3) Split those into 4 pods of 8, like SE, NE, Central, West.  Seven games per pod, 3 against other pods, 2 games against L2.

4) League 2 formed by the remaining 28 teams, who have all their games on the League networks (minus the two featured)

5) Two championships:  Pod champs are autos with 4 of wildcards.   Everyone else plays a post season, made for TV, exhibition

6) 8 team advancement/relegation on 3 year windows, or maybe stager it to 2 per year on a 3 year average or something.  Even the toilet bowl that year could be exciting if the loser lost their spot.

Eventually all the crap that fills up conferences would sort itself out and those that were driven to compete would move up.   You'd have enough inventory to spread it around to multiple partners like the NFL does.

The money would be there to pay both leagues a healthy amount.

 

['stache 21802]

50 minutes ago, Hurtlocker said:

I think this alliance should go all premier league:

1) Merge together all the teams of the three discussed, the remaining 8 (49 teams) and maybe the AAC (60 teams)

2) Based on some qualifier like 3-5 year success, rotate the top 32 programs into the League 1, with all games being on the national networks

3) Split those into 4 pods of 8, like SE, NE, Central, West.  Seven games per pod, 3 against other pods, 2 games against L2.

4) League 2 formed by the remaining 28 teams, who have all their games on the League networks (minus the two featured)

5) Two championships:  Pod champs are autos with 4 of wildcards.   Everyone else plays a post season, made for TV, exhibition

6) 8 team advancement/relegation on 3 year windows, or maybe stager it to 2 per year on a 3 year average or something.  Even the toilet bowl that year could be exciting if the loser lost their spot.

Eventually all the crap that fills up conferences would sort itself out and those that were driven to compete would move up.   You'd have enough inventory to spread it around to multiple partners like the NFL does.

The money would be there to pay both leagues a healthy amount.

 

Also to add that your plan mentions the three conferences, so Mississippi State, Vandy, Arky, Tennessee, Mizzou, etc., are all exempt from relegation, cause SEC SEC SEC!!!??!?!?!

Edited August 16, 2021 by 'stache

[Hurtlocker 2212]

Just now, 'stache said:

Also to add that your plan mentions the three conferences, so Mississippi State, Vandy, Arky, Tennessee, Mizzou, etc., are all exempt from relegation, cause SEC SEC SEC!!!??!?!?!

Well, they weren't listed in the article, so the three were the ACC, Big Ten, and Pac 12.   Those ones you mentioned are already relegated because they don't really play many games off the SEC Network.

[billfromlaketravis 11463]

1 hour ago, Tex-19 said:

Rumor mill

 

Show me the letter/email. 

It smells fishy. This would be the longest notice an employer has ever given their employees. Unless they're teamsters and Bill Bufalino is their attorney, there's no need to provide notice this far in advance. 

[Tex-19 2872]

Just now, billfromlaketravis said:

Show me the letter/email. 

It smells fishy. This would be the longest notice an employer has ever given their employees. Unless they're teamsters and Bill Bufalino is their attorney, there's no need to provide notice this far in advance. 

I said rumor mill for a reason BUT I think it means more of an informal like "Hey dude start looking for a job bc we're all out by then"

[Deej 76759]

1 hour ago, Tex-19 said:

Rumor mill

 

I look forward to refusing to give a homeless Lowell Galindo my spare change. 

['stache 21802]

Well my co-worker who's nephew is being strongly recruited by OU says that their coaches are telling recruits that it'll be a year or two at most in the Big XII. I don't think anyone seriously believes this will go on til 2025.

[jTower 227]

15 minutes ago, billfromlaketravis said:

Show me the letter/email. 

It smells fishy. This would be the longest notice an employer has ever given their employees. Unless they're teamsters and Bill Bufalino is their attorney, there's no need to provide notice this far in advance. 

Plus, won’t they need all those employees to run the SECW network?
It’s not really going away as much as being reassigned.  

[billfromlaketravis 11463]

11 minutes ago, jTower said:

Plus, won’t they need all those employees to run the SECW network?
It’s not really going away as much as being reassigned.  

I've seen a few things where ESPN/SEC Network likes the LHN's facilities, but not necessarily the personnel. Like any penny pinching company, they'll have just enough people in Austin to keep the lights on. I'd be mildly surprised if we see regular SECN shows live/filmed in Austin. 

[Scholz 11942]

*whose