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Posted by Sandbagging Steve,

How many teams will be left when the dust settles in a few years? I think there's a way for all the teams to still have some involvement. I will explain that at the end of this list. Here's my list of the top 32 programs and a list if it goes to 48. There's some debate if it goes to 48, but not much debate if it stops at 32. I guess one could debate Arizona State, but that's about it. The top 32 at least come close to carrying their own weight. Everyone below that line is losing money for t

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Aggy should abstain so the vote is 13-0 and then we can then brand it on their dog.

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notre dame joe

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33 minutes ago, TKthunder2 said:

In fairness Oklahoma has committed to keep playing Okie St in all sports including football so they’re only really losing Texas.  Honestly that’s a huge deal in their favor in conference realignment since they bring those extra 2-3 million eyeballs every other year.

The B1G and the SEC have a permanent seat at the table.  The PAC and ACC might keep theirs but it’s no sure thing.  Rutgers, Maryland, Purdue, and Mississippi State are safe.  Wazzu, Oregon St, Arizona St, Wake Forest are only a step or two above the  remaining Big12 schools.

Your point is correct, no schools left in the Big12 will increase the TV money for any conference (WVU might not lose money for the ACC, but I doubt they bring in anymore to its members).  The only team outside the power 4 that will bring in more money is Notre Dame.  That being said if the PAC can add Central time zone schools and increase their visibility and numbers in order to not be the smallest conference, it might be worth losing a few million in the short term.

Still this is why contraction is the future of realignment.  No school can bring more money so adding to increase revenue isn’t an option anymore.  Subtracting your weakest schools that bring nothing competitively (in sports that matter) in bad or duplicate markets is the only way to significantly increase revenue.  If the PAC12 cut Washington State and Oregon State from their conference they’d have more games with Oregon/Washington versus USC/UCLA which would increase their value and increase everyone’s slice of pie at the same time.

Did the OK schools pledge to play an annual Bedlam game or just keep it something like how OU plays Tulsa?  9 conf games + 1 OOC rival + semi-mandatory body bag game does not leave much room in the schedule.

 

in the PAC you would halve the college football audience in those states by cutting the sister school.  Not something good for the long term especially in a region that already struggles to garner CFB interest. 

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Francisco 2.0

Francisco 2.0 32389

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6 minutes ago, notre dame joe said:

Did the OK schools pledge to play an annual Bedlam game or just keep it something like how OU plays Tulsa?  9 conf games + 1 OOC rival + semi-mandatory body bag game does not leave much room in the schedule.

 

in the PAC you would halve the college football audience in those states by cutting the sister school.  Not something good for the long term especially in a region that already struggles to garner CFB interest. 

 

Oklahoma has offered, publicly, to continue to play OSU in all sports.

OSU has not reciprocated the same.  Maybe they have through back channels.  However, given the twitter ramblings of their president over the past month, it's probably not gonna happen.

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6 hours ago, Hurtlocker said:

Yeah, honestly, I think this is a Pac play to be honest.   They want to drop to 8 conference games to stop beating each other up, but know they can't with out other P5 games on the docket.   Doesn't hurt the ACC either.   They have 14 teams and only Louisville, Clemson, FSU and GTech play SEC crossovers every year, that leaves ten teams looking for better games as it is.    The only reason I see the Big Ten dropping to 8 games is if they expand and add content.

As for the playoffs, my guess is it isn't blocking it, its slowing it down.   If media partners don't want to invest in CFB because they can't get a bite of the post season, then they're going to want to add to the structure to guarantee they do.  One idea I heard is blowing up the bowl system and having it all run through CFB (as opposed to a patchwork of individual interests) and then the first round would be on campuses and the next round would be in stadiums set in each conference's footprint, with domed stadiums being used in the north, each controlled by that conference and bid out.   So the SEC could have a game with ESPN, and Fox could have one with the Pac, and the Big Ten CBS, etc.    Then rotate the champ game like the NFL does every year or couple years.

The thinking being if Fox can get some of the Big Ten's post season, they'll be more likely to invest in the Big Ten's regular season.   As it sits now, they basically market the ESPN's end of year games.   I'd also expect they hard code in more access, like limit the amount of teams per conference in the playoffs to three.

TLDR: expansion will happen, but likely at the end of the contract instead of 2 years before.

I don't think anyone is decreasing conference games.  SEC goes to 9.  Big 10 and Pac 12 stay at 9.  ACC stays at 8 + ND.  NCSU-Duke and Oregon St.-Arizona St. is more valuable than NCSU-Oregon St. and Duke-Arizona St.  Nobody from either region will watch the latter set of games.  The alliance needs to include premier games and not displace conference games.  And maybe Duke plays Arizona St. instead of Western Carolina.

 

 

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7 hours ago, SydneyCarton said:

I get what you're saying here, I just fundamentally disagree. The march to an 8 or 12 team playoff is inevitable. Even with some SEC deflation by playing more games, you've got to think a committee picking the top 12 teams is going to find 3 SEC teams spots. I'd argue as many as 5. Because there will be Clemson and Ohio State and then a lot of 3 loss teams looking to get into it as well, and having 2-3 of those loses against higher ranked conference competition is going to look better on a resume. 

That's why all other conferences should be on board with more spots, including the SEC. Right now the 4 team is Ohio State, Clemson, 2 SEC teams and occasionally a Washington or Notre Dame, maybe Oregon soon. You don't think the other 3 major conferences will realize that they might be better off letting in 3-4 SEC teams, but still having an extra 4-5 to split amongst themselves, or however the math breaks out?

Everybody other than Ohio St., Alabama, Clemson and Georgia should be on board with more than 4 slots.

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mdmost

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Posted
2 minutes ago, bullet said:

I don't think anyone is decreasing conference games.  SEC goes to 9.  Big 10 and Pac 12 stay at 9.  ACC stays at 8 + ND.  NCSU-Duke and Oregon St.-Arizona St. is more valuable than NCSU-Oregon St. and Duke-Arizona St.  Nobody from either region will watch the latter set of games.  The alliance needs to include premier games and not displace conference games.  And maybe Duke plays Arizona St. instead of Western Carolina.

 

 

The Pac 12 is already thinking about going to 8 conference games. They need more inventory in the central and eastern time zones. 

 

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billfromlaketravis

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51 minutes ago, TKthunder2 said:

In fairness Oklahoma has committed to keep playing Okie St in all sports including football so they’re only really losing Texas.  Honestly that’s a huge deal in their favor in conference realignment since they bring those extra 2-3 million eyeballs every other year.

The B1G and the SEC have a permanent seat at the table.  The PAC and ACC might keep theirs but it’s no sure thing.  Rutgers, Maryland, Purdue, and Mississippi State are safe.  Wazzu, Oregon St, Arizona St, Wake Forest are only a step or two above the  remaining Big12 schools.

Your point is correct, no schools left in the Big12 will increase the TV money for any conference (WVU might not lose money for the ACC, but I doubt they bring in anymore to its members).  The only team outside the power 4 that will bring in more money is Notre Dame.  That being said if the PAC can add Central time zone schools and increase their visibility and numbers in order to not be the smallest conference, it might be worth losing a few million in the short term.

Still this is why contraction is the future of realignment.  No school can bring more money so adding to increase revenue isn’t an option anymore.  Subtracting your weakest schools that bring nothing competitively (in sports that matter) in bad or duplicate markets is the only way to significantly increase revenue.  If the PAC12 cut Washington State and Oregon State from their conference they’d have more games with Oregon/Washington versus USC/UCLA which would increase their value and increase everyone’s slice of pie at the same time.

I wonder if Texas agrees to play Tech in all sports (yes I know this is a terribly unpopular idea) and if Bedlam is locked in, if that's enough to get Tech and OK State into the PAC 12? 

I don't want to play Tech either, but I'd sure as hell do it to 1) Play in the SEC in 2022 and 2) Save $70-80 million. 

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4 hours ago, 'stache said:

So many of you keep saying this and the numbers just don't support it. OSU and Tech's TV ratings are better than everyone in the Pac 12 except USC. ISU would be squarely within the average for the Big 10 in football and their fans support their team regardless of whether they're good or not. KU has value in basketball, which is not the driving factor here, but it cannot be ignored.

Well you could be better than half the Big 12, but still lower the average since UT and OU are such a high %.

USC, UCLA, UW are probably a really big part of Pac 12 value.

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4 hours ago, SydneyCarton said:

What? Why the fuck would I subtract those #s? None of the PAC schools, currently, are at risk of leaving the PAC, so why do I need to re-evaluate what Oregon versus Oregon State does in regards to being attractive for the Beavers to join another conference?

Oklahoma State is trying to sell what THEY offer to another conference. And what they sell no longer includes their two by far biggest viewership games of the year. Period. They don't get to sell that. And on the other end. UCLA isn't at risk from losing their games from their two biggest conference mates and trying to sell themselves to the Big 10 so there isn't some fuck all apples to apples to comparison you need to construct. There aren't two sides to this coin. 

Because if they go to the Pac, they would have USC and Oregon and still look better than most of those Pac schools.

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Assuming no further expansion among the Irate 8 to the new alliance members, this is even a bigger blow from a non-conference scheduling perspective but also potentially an opportunity as it relates to TX-OU exit settlement discussions.   Particularly if the Big 12 does what it should and add 4 of SMU/UH/Cincy/UCF/Mempis/BYU. The SEC could offer an "alliance" (i.e., Big 12/SEC challenge) for one non-conference game per year.   That would help the Irate 8 have more meaningful inventory and a solid home game every other year.  On the flip side, the SEC has leverage to freeze them out of non-conference going forward if the Irate 8 try to play hard ball meaning it will be hard for any of them to get a non-conference game scheduled with a Power 5 school.  

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YouLoveMyPenises

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The only competitive move is for the top of the Big 10, PAC, and ACC to merge into a new conference.

 

The Big 10 CiC isn't going anywhere, no need to play sports against each other to share research dollars.

 

A 16 team SEC and a 16 team Super Happy Alliance Friends conference would capture what, 75% of all CFB viewers? Around $75-90 million a year per school for rights?

 

The other option is letting the SEC slowly add all valuable properties and continue to skyrocket past everyone else in revenue.

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Posted (edited)
23 minutes ago, YouLoveMyPenises said:

The only competitive move is for the top of the Big 10, PAC, and ACC to merge into a new conference.

 

The Big 10 CiC isn't going anywhere, no need to play sports against each other to share research dollars.

 

A 16 team SEC and a 16 team Super Happy Alliance Friends conference would capture what, 75% of all CFB viewers? Around $75-90 million a year per school for rights?

 

The other option is letting the SEC slowly add all valuable properties and continue to skyrocket past everyone else in revenue.

 

I think you underestimate the amount of viewers who support other programs other then the bluebloods in those conferences who would lose interest when their teams are left out.    I'd venture to say they comprise way more then 25%

Edited by SwAss
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'stache

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I guess I'll keep reposting this about ratings and value and "remove ou and Texas...". We unquestionably add value to the PAC. If they do not expand it will be for other reasons, not value or ratings.

OSU v. ISU would have been the third highest rated game in the PAC, OSU v. Tech would have been 7th, and OSU v. KSU would be 8th. 

 

image.png.edac5aee08f21283895264c6119c1744.png

 

Tech/ISU - 1.38M
ISU/OkSU - 2.81M
Tech/OkSU - 2.12M

 

Oregon-USC
Network: Dec. 18 on FOX at 5 p.m.
Rating/audience: 2.25/3.85 million

USC-UCLA
Network:Dec. 12 on ABC at 7:30 p.m.
Rating/audience:NA/3.24 million

Oregon State-Oregon
Network: Nov. 27 on ESPN at 7:30 p.m.
Rating/audience: 1.45/2.8 million

Oregon-Washington State
Network: Nov. 14 on FOX at 7 p.m.
Rating/audience: 1.5/2.73 million

USC-Arizona State
Network: Nov. 7 on FOX at 12 p.m. 
Rating/audience: 1.3/2.33 million

USC-Arizona
Network: Nov. 14 on FOX at 3:30 p.m.
Rating/audience: 1.3/2.21 million

Utah-Washington
Network: Nov. 28 on ABC at 7:30 p.m.
Rating/audience: 1.2/2.0 million

Stanford-Cal
Network: Nov. 27 on FOX at 4:30 p.m.
Rating/audience: 1.0/1.75 million

Utah-Colorado
Network:Dec. 12 on FOX at 12 p.m.
Rating/audience:NA/1.7 million

https://247sports.com/college/washington-state/Article/WSU-Ore-did-well-but-TV-ratings-for-Pac-12-and-CFB-dropped-in-2020-158155885/

Edited by 'stache
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YouLoveMyPenises

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36 minutes ago, SwAss said:

 

I think you underestimate the amount of viewers who support other programs other then the bluebloods in those conferences who would lose interest when their teams are left out.    I'd venture to say they comprise way more then 25%

Well, if you trust this dude's numbers, it's actually a little higher than 75% if you count the top 32 versus the rest. 

Albeit he does stop at SMU.

https://medium.com/run-it-back-with-zach/which-college-football-programs-bring-in-the-most-tv-viewers-efc03c689e50

 

Also intersesting to note how low Missouri is. Oklahoma State is way more valuable.

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nineliveslost

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4 minutes ago, YouLoveMyPenises said:

Well, if you trust this dude's numbers, it's actually a little higher than 75% if you count the top 32 versus the rest. 

Albeit he does stop at SMU.

https://medium.com/run-it-back-with-zach/which-college-football-programs-bring-in-the-most-tv-viewers-efc03c689e50

 

Also intersesting to note how low Missouri is. Oklahoma State is way more valuable.

interesting that Texas , Michigan, Auburn and others still bring in the eyeballs even without meeting the fan expectations . 

 

Just imagine if we (Texas) start really winning 

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Burt Macklin

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Posted
1 hour ago, 'stache said:

I guess I'll keep reposting this about ratings and value and "remove ou and Texas...". We unquestionably add value to the PAC. If they do not expand it will be for other reasons, not value or ratings.

OSU v. ISU would have been the third highest rated game in the PAC, OSU v. Tech would have been 7th, and OSU v. KSU would be 8th. 

 

image.png.edac5aee08f21283895264c6119c1744.png

 

Tech/ISU - 1.38M
ISU/OkSU - 2.81M
Tech/OkSU - 2.12M

 

Oregon-USC
Network: Dec. 18 on FOX at 5 p.m.
Rating/audience: 2.25/3.85 million

USC-UCLA
Network:Dec. 12 on ABC at 7:30 p.m.
Rating/audience:NA/3.24 million

Oregon State-Oregon
Network: Nov. 27 on ESPN at 7:30 p.m.
Rating/audience: 1.45/2.8 million

Oregon-Washington State
Network: Nov. 14 on FOX at 7 p.m.
Rating/audience: 1.5/2.73 million

USC-Arizona State
Network: Nov. 7 on FOX at 12 p.m. 
Rating/audience: 1.3/2.33 million

USC-Arizona
Network: Nov. 14 on FOX at 3:30 p.m.
Rating/audience: 1.3/2.21 million

Utah-Washington
Network: Nov. 28 on ABC at 7:30 p.m.
Rating/audience: 1.2/2.0 million

Stanford-Cal
Network: Nov. 27 on FOX at 4:30 p.m.
Rating/audience: 1.0/1.75 million

Utah-Colorado
Network:Dec. 12 on FOX at 12 p.m.
Rating/audience:NA/1.7 million

https://247sports.com/college/washington-state/Article/WSU-Ore-did-well-but-TV-ratings-for-Pac-12-and-CFB-dropped-in-2020-158155885/

In other words, suck it, @SydneyCarton! 

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GTNY

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Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, 'stache said:

I guess I'll keep reposting this about ratings and value and "remove ou and Texas...". We unquestionably add value to the PAC. If they do not expand it will be for other reasons, not value or ratings.

OSU v. ISU would have been the third highest rated game in the PAC, OSU v. Tech would have been 7th, and OSU v. KSU would be 8th. 

 

image.png.edac5aee08f21283895264c6119c1744.png

 

Tech/ISU - 1.38M
ISU/OkSU - 2.81M
Tech/OkSU - 2.12M

 

Oregon-USC
Network: Dec. 18 on FOX at 5 p.m.
Rating/audience: 2.25/3.85 million

USC-UCLA
Network:Dec. 12 on ABC at 7:30 p.m.
Rating/audience:NA/3.24 million

Oregon State-Oregon
Network: Nov. 27 on ESPN at 7:30 p.m.
Rating/audience: 1.45/2.8 million

Oregon-Washington State
Network: Nov. 14 on FOX at 7 p.m.
Rating/audience: 1.5/2.73 million

USC-Arizona State
Network: Nov. 7 on FOX at 12 p.m. 
Rating/audience: 1.3/2.33 million

USC-Arizona
Network: Nov. 14 on FOX at 3:30 p.m.
Rating/audience: 1.3/2.21 million

Utah-Washington
Network: Nov. 28 on ABC at 7:30 p.m.
Rating/audience: 1.2/2.0 million

Stanford-Cal
Network: Nov. 27 on FOX at 4:30 p.m.
Rating/audience: 1.0/1.75 million

Utah-Colorado
Network:Dec. 12 on FOX at 12 p.m.
Rating/audience:NA/1.7 million

https://247sports.com/college/washington-state/Article/WSU-Ore-did-well-but-TV-ratings-for-Pac-12-and-CFB-dropped-in-2020-158155885/

Not all viewers are worth the same (but I still I hope y'all end up somewhere soon)

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Not a Sock

Not a Sock 2313

Posted
Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, 'stache said:

I guess I'll keep reposting this about ratings and value and "remove ou and Texas...". We unquestionably add value to the PAC. If they do not expand it will be for other reasons, not value or ratings.

OSU v. ISU would have been the third highest rated game in the PAC, OSU v. Tech would have been 7th, and OSU v. KSU would be 8th. 

 

image.png.edac5aee08f21283895264c6119c1744.png

 

Tech/ISU - 1.38M
ISU/OkSU - 2.81M
Tech/OkSU - 2.12M

 

Oregon-USC
Network: Dec. 18 on FOX at 5 p.m.
Rating/audience: 2.25/3.85 million

USC-UCLA
Network:Dec. 12 on ABC at 7:30 p.m.
Rating/audience:NA/3.24 million

Oregon State-Oregon
Network: Nov. 27 on ESPN at 7:30 p.m.
Rating/audience: 1.45/2.8 million

Oregon-Washington State
Network: Nov. 14 on FOX at 7 p.m.
Rating/audience: 1.5/2.73 million

USC-Arizona State
Network: Nov. 7 on FOX at 12 p.m. 
Rating/audience: 1.3/2.33 million

USC-Arizona
Network: Nov. 14 on FOX at 3:30 p.m.
Rating/audience: 1.3/2.21 million

Utah-Washington
Network: Nov. 28 on ABC at 7:30 p.m.
Rating/audience: 1.2/2.0 million

Stanford-Cal
Network: Nov. 27 on FOX at 4:30 p.m.
Rating/audience: 1.0/1.75 million

Utah-Colorado
Network:Dec. 12 on FOX at 12 p.m.
Rating/audience:NA/1.7 million

https://247sports.com/college/washington-state/Article/WSU-Ore-did-well-but-TV-ratings-for-Pac-12-and-CFB-dropped-in-2020-158155885/

You don’t add value, you may be more valuable then current Pac12 members but the pac 12 isn’t kick out WSU and replacing them with OSU. Y’all may be more productive then some current pac 12 “employees” but y’all cost of labor is still more than the value of your work and thus adding you to the work force would ultimately be a net negative.

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Hurtlocker

Hurtlocker 2212

Posted
Posted
4 hours ago, bullet said:

I don't think anyone is decreasing conference games.  SEC goes to 9.  Big 10 and Pac 12 stay at 9.  ACC stays at 8 + ND.  NCSU-Duke and Oregon St.-Arizona St. is more valuable than NCSU-Oregon St. and Duke-Arizona St.  Nobody from either region will watch the latter set of games.  The alliance needs to include premier games and not displace conference games.  And maybe Duke plays Arizona St. instead of Western Carolina.

 

 

That's basically it.   The Pac does want to drop to 8 games, but they can't and keep their contract intact.  If they had 4 games to give, you could give two of them to the B1G/ACC, that gives them more games in the east coast.  Granted that only gets you back to even, but you're back to even with more eyeballs.   I think you also set up made for TV ones in the beginning of the year and fill in those bullshit filler games everyone has with just normal cross overs.  Washington State v Syracuse isn't going to be a 4m game, but, to your point, its going to be worth a fuck ton more than Syracuse v Western Carolina or the Citadel, or the nameless rabble of bought games. 

While this helps the Pac/ACC, all I think it gives the B1G is puppet states, which may be what it wants most.

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