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Realignment talk not going away


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23 hours ago, bullet said:

With the vast escalation in dollars, I just don't see a 24 team B$G or $EC making sense.  Maybe they could get to 20.  5 years ago, I thought the B$G and $EC splitting up the ACC and forming 2 22-24 team groups each with a 10-12 team league made sense.  There were 44 teams between the three conferences when you add in WVU.  They might stick at each having a 10 team league and 12 team league in their "conference" or they could add 4 more from the then Big 12 and AAC.

But now, I just don't see that making sense.  And with Texas/OU/USC/UCLA moving, having two leagues in one conference makes less sense geographically as you would have to split up the old core of the B$G and $EC.  Having one league with 24 just doesn't make sense.

Southern Conference with:

SEC= Bama, UGA, LSU, UF, UK, MSU, UM, UTn, Barn, Vandy

SWC= UT, OU, Pig, aggy, Mizzou, USCe, +4 more.  
 

Of course aggy will be on suicide watch as they are forced to turn in their SEC badges for SWC ones

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1 hour ago, Gidnik said:

https://theathletic.com/news/big-12-pac-12/xr0KkM54sW9e/

i wonder how long it will take to get some real news to pop up.  

I would assume not for at least a month. Pac 12 entered a 30 day media rights negotiating window yesterday. Imagine all members want to know exactly what their next media deal may be worth before making their decisions. 

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2 hours ago, Steamboat1874 said:

I don't know why this is so hard.

There should be 4 each 16 team conferences (64 teams) in D1 football.

Each conference has 2 each 8 team divisions. 

I think there should be about 10 conferences, each with 8-10 schools, based on geographic region. That way the students can travel to all of the games on the weekend and watch their school try to win the conference championship.

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6 minutes ago, The Hot Dog Buffet said:

I think there should be about 10 conferences, each with 8-10 schools, based on geographic region. That way the students can travel to all of the games on the weekend and watch their school try to win the conference championship.

Wut? How does that make any more sense that UCLA making a bazillion dollars to play in New Jersey? You're talking crazy.

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5 minutes ago, The Hot Dog Buffet said:

I think there should be about 10 conferences, each with 8-10 schools, based on geographic region. That way the students can travel to all of the games on the weekend and watch their school try to win the conference championship.

And they should be allowed to determine their conference champion any way they like, and if there's some kind of postseason, great, and if not, that's okay too.  Maybe the teams just decide to go to a nice sunny place on January 1st and play someone they don't typically play in the regular season.

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Just now, utee94 said:

And they should be allowed to determine their conference champion any way they like, and if there's some kind of postseason, great, and if not, that's okay too.  Maybe the teams just decide to go to a nice sunny place on January 1st and play someone they don't typically play in the regular season.

Yeah, why hasn't anyone thought of that yet?

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9 minutes ago, The Hot Dog Buffet said:

I think there should be about 10 conferences, each with 8-10 schools, based on geographic region. That way the students can travel to all of the games on the weekend and watch their school try to win the conference championship.

Well I mean that would be awesome but it's long gone

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I still think that if you want to do real alliance talk, the smartest thing is to introduce a relegation system.

Have the Big XII develop an alliance with the American.  Nobody cares about that November game between Kansas and Iowa State, but if it's a relegation game, suddenly it's pretty damned interesting.  And that SMU-Memphis game to see who gets promoted also becomes pretty interesting.

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43 minutes ago, Ghost of LL said:

I still think that if you want to do real alliance talk, the smartest thing is to introduce a relegation system.

Have the Big XII develop an alliance with the American.  Nobody cares about that November game between Kansas and Iowa State, but if it's a relegation game, suddenly it's pretty damned interesting.  And that SMU-Memphis game to see who gets promoted also becomes pretty interesting.

I like.   Do you do it regionally, like:

MAC --> Big Ten

SunBelt --> SEC

CUSA --> ACC

AAC --> Big 12

Pac 12 --> WAC

 

Or just Total top five replace bottom of each every 3-4 years?

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One of the things I have noticed is that the SEC and the Big 10 have been pro active in making their conference and brands better for the long term.  Which is why they are both the top conferences in college sports.  The Pac and Big 12 have been reactive instead of proactive in re alignment which is why they are sucking hind tit.  WTF do these commissioners do all year in the Big 12 and Pac?  They clearly are not doing shit until all hell breaks loose and they have to scramble.  And they even suck at that.

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13 minutes ago, Hurtlocker said:

I like.   Do you do it regionally, like:

MAC --> Big Ten

SunBelt --> SEC

CUSA --> ACC

AAC --> Big 12

Pac 12 --> WAC

 

Or just Total top five replace bottom of each every 3-4 years?

I mean, while we're spitballing, why don't we have North (B1G) and South (SEC) for your two premier leagues.  And then you can have a couple mid-tier leagues (ACC & Big XII--I'm kind of assuming the Pac gets completely subsumed).  And then below that have the lower conferences.  Have multiple levels of relegation and promotion, just like in European soccer.

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2 minutes ago, Ghost of LL said:

I mean, while we're spitballing, why don't we have North (B1G) and South (SEC) for your two premier leagues.  And then you can have a couple mid-tier leagues (ACC & Big XII--I'm kind of assuming the Pac gets completely subsumed).  And then below that have the lower conferences.  Have multiple levels of relegation and promotion, just like in European soccer.

This thread is all about the spitballing, so...

I don't think 2 will be enough, unless they grow past 16.   The Premier league has 20 teams, but in a country the size of California with 70m people.   The other benefit is they don't have conferences, which I think would need to be step one here, just firebomb that concept, have the CFB grab an anti-trust get out of jail free card from Congress like the NFL has, then put some rules in place like how much you're going to spend to play for the top tier, and see who antes up.   And make them do it without broadcast backing, add that into the mix once the seats are settled.   That way the Mississippi State or Indiana's of the world don't get a free pass.

I'm guessing you'll still have 40-50 teams who ante up, some of which do it easily, some who get a second mortage to do so.

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21 minutes ago, Ghost of LL said:

I mean, while we're spitballing, why don't we have North (B1G) and South (SEC) for your two premier leagues.  And then you can have a couple mid-tier leagues (ACC & Big XII--I'm kind of assuming the Pac gets completely subsumed).  And then below that have the lower conferences.  Have multiple levels of relegation and promotion, just like in European soccer.

It's fun to fantasize about this stuff, and I've always liked how pro/rel works in soccer, but I just don't see how it can be practically applied as a business model to college athletics in the USA.  Perhaps above all else, college athletic departments need consistent and predictable annual revenues.  And college athletic departments depend on football revenue, but unlike soccer, they fund a variety of other sports that all draw their budget from the same source. A football club in England funds only itself. 

So how does it work if Kentucky gets relegated in football, do their other sports follow them down to the lower tier conference/league?  What if their basketball team is winning national championships?  And how do they maintain their budget that could feature as much as $80M of annual SEC TV revenue in the next contract, once they get busted down to the ACC where they'd only make maybe $40M/year?

To really enable pro/rel, I think you'd have to take a couple steps that might work in theory but I just don't see ever happening in practice.

1) Decouple football from all other sports.  Let the other sports exist in regional conferences, and football would be the only sport that follows the pro/rel model.

2) Make all participating universities agree to some uniform annual revenue payment, regardless of league.  Or if there is some difference, it would have to be pretty minimal.  Because a modern college athletic budget simply can't absorb a delta from $80M to $40M per year in TV revenue.  But this would mean distributing the huge payouts that the B1G and SEC teams are expecting to see in their new contracts, across not only the second-tier leagues, but also the 3rd-tier leagues, or however deep you plan to go for the relegation model.

So to enable #2 above, you're going to have to explain to Ohio State why they're not getting $100M/yr they were expecting from the new B1G contract, but instead they're only getting $20M/yr, because Idaho State and Nevada also need to make $20M/yr, since all the money is coming from the same pool.

And none of that accounts for the different networks and broadcast partners, and how they desire to deliver the on-field product and branding.

Edited by utee94
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3 hours ago, Steamboat1874 said:

I don't know why this is so hard.

There should be 4 each 16 team conferences (64 teams) in D1 football.

Each conference has 2 each 8 team divisions. 

In your mind, does Texas Tech deserve the same TV deal as Bama? Does Wake Forest deserve the same TV deal as Ohio State? 

The gravy train is coming to an end. Schools like Oregon State and Iowa State that haven't done anything that matters in football for generations will no longer be able to ride the coattails of those that do. We are going to 2 power conferences. Unlike everyone else, I expect programs like Vandy & Indiana to get tossed and replaced. We will have 2 conferences of the best 48 teams and their 2 conf champs will play for the national title. Their best teams will meet in the most prestigious bowls. They will have all of the money and rightfully so. 

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Just now, JFKFC said:

In your mind, does Texas Tech deserve the same TV deal as Bama? Does Wake Forest deserve the same TV deal as Ohio State? 

The gravy train is coming to an end. Schools like Oregon State and Iowa State that haven't done anything that matters in football for generations will no longer be able to ride the coattails of those that do. We are going to 2 power conferences. Unlike everyone else, I expect programs like Vandy & Indiana to get tossed and replaced. We will have 2 conferences of the best 48 teams and their 2 conf champs will play for the national title. Their best teams will meet in the most prestigious bowls. They will have all of the money and rightfully so. 

You slag ISU and then say it will be the best 48 teams.  ISU is in that top 48 in any metric you want to use.  Performance, recruiting, TV ratings, attendance.  Any of it.

At least currently.  We were ass in the 80's and 90's so I guess that locks us in forever in this ridiculous sport.

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4 minutes ago, JFKFC said:

In your mind, does Texas Tech deserve the same TV deal as Bama? Does Wake Forest deserve the same TV deal as Ohio State? 

The gravy train is coming to an end. Schools like Oregon State and Iowa State that haven't done anything that matters in football for generations will no longer be able to ride the coattails of those that do. We are going to 2 power conferences. Unlike everyone else, I expect programs like Vandy & Indiana to get tossed and replaced. We will have 2 conferences of the best 48 teams and their 2 conf champs will play for the national title. Their best teams will meet in the most prestigious bowls. They will have all of the money and rightfully so. 

 

2 minutes ago, Al_4_ISU said:

You slag ISU and then say it will be the best 48 teams.  ISU is in that top 48 in any metric you want to use.  Performance, recruiting, TV ratings, attendance.  Any of it.

At least currently.  We were ass in the 80's and 90's so I guess that locks us in forever in this ridiculous sport.

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3 minutes ago, Al_4_ISU said:

You slag ISU and then say it will be the best 48 teams.  ISU is in that top 48 in any metric you want to use.  Performance, recruiting, TV ratings, attendance.  Any of it.

At least currently.  We were ass in the 80's and 90's so I guess that locks us in forever in this ridiculous sport.

If I remember correctly, it has been over a century since Iowa State has won a conference title, correct? I know it sucks to hear this but you aren't in the top 48. 

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3 minutes ago, JFKFC said:

If I remember correctly, it has been over a century since Iowa State has won a conference title, correct? I know it sucks to hear this but you aren't in the top 48. 

Top 48 all time?  No, we're not.

Top 48 today?  Undeniably so.

Is this about who is more valuable today and going forward, or rewarding who was better 30 years ago with a lifetime achievement award?

Edited by Al_4_ISU
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1 minute ago, JFKFC said:

If I remember correctly, it has been over a century since Iowa State has won a conference title, correct? I know it sucks to hear this but you aren't in the top 48. 

This is sort of where I was going with the fantasy relegation discussion.   So what exactly are the metrics that would be used to sort out the top 48?   Attendance, Spend, wins?   If it is success, what is the date range?   Does Yale get in?   How do we lay this out and say, "you want in?  Meet these requirements"?

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1 minute ago, Al_4_ISU said:

You slag ISU and then say it will be the best 48 teams.  ISU is in that top 48 in any metric you want to use.  Performance, recruiting, TV ratings, attendance.  Any of it.

At least currently.  We were ass in the 80's and 90's so I guess that locks us in forever in this ridiculous sport.

The "best 48 teams" aren't the best teams in the sense that they are the most competitive. Take a look at the preseason polls when they come out this year. You will find Texas and Nebraska ranked. Ask yourself if ISU could ever come off of a season like either of those teams just had and be ranked the following preseason. That would never happen, and that is what makes Nebraska and Texas better than you.

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This makes sense, ND isn't going to join until the financial gap is massive and they have no incentive to announce it now....Unless the ACC falls apart, that's the thing that could expedite ND's inclusion in a conference.  This article just posted this morning:
 

https://trojanswire.usatoday.com/2022/07/06/game-changer-ucla-insider-says-acc-grant-of-rights-is-malleable/

If the B1G wants ND to commit, perhaps they don't add any other schools on the West Coast, then focus on the ACC for the last few spots.  Something like ND/UVA/UNC/GT would work and would then free up Clemson/FSU/Va Tech/Duke for the SEC to get to 20.

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12 minutes ago, JFKFC said:

In your mind, does Texas Tech deserve the same TV deal as Bama? Does Wake Forest deserve the same TV deal as Ohio State? 

The gravy train is coming to an end. Schools like Oregon State and Iowa State that haven't done anything that matters in football for generations will no longer be able to ride the coattails of those that do. We are going to 2 power conferences. Unlike everyone else, I expect programs like Vandy & Indiana to get tossed and replaced. We will have 2 conferences of the best 48 teams and their 2 conf champs will play for the national title. Their best teams will meet in the most prestigious bowls. They will have all of the money and rightfully so. 

 

If Vandy hasn't been tossed by now, the SEC is never going to toss them aside.  They were a founding member of the SEC.

Indiana has been in the BIG since 1899.  They aren't going anywhere, no matter how much they suck at football.

If ever a program deserved to get kicked out of a conference based on performance alone, Kansas would have been Exhibit A. Yet, they are still around.

 

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1 minute ago, The Hot Dog Buffet said:

The "best 48 teams" aren't the best teams in the sense that they are the most competitive. Take a look at the preseason polls when they come out this year. You will find Texas and Nebraska ranked. Ask yourself if ISU could ever come off of a season like either of those teams just had and be ranked the following preseason. That would never happen, and that is what makes Nebraska and Texas better than you.

This seems like a great system for determining the worthy competitors going forward.  ISU has beaten Texas 3 consecutive years, and absolutely demolished them last year.  Nebraska would have met the same fate.

If it's about who was good 30 years ago, and it clearly is, we don't make that cut.  If it's about who is good now, brings eyeballs, fills seats, and gets ratings, we're Top 48 without much debate.

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2 minutes ago, hawkfan said:

This makes sense, ND isn't going to join until the financial gap is massive and they have no incentive to announce it now....Unless the ACC falls apart, that's the thing that could expedite ND's inclusion in a conference.  This article just posted this morning:
 

https://trojanswire.usatoday.com/2022/07/06/game-changer-ucla-insider-says-acc-grant-of-rights-is-malleable/

If the B1G wants ND to commit, perhaps they don't add any other schools on the West Coast, then focus on the ACC for the last few spots.  Something like ND/UVA/UNC/GT would work and would then free up Clemson/FSU/Va Tech/Duke for the SEC to get to 20.

The only one I can see them adding in the West Coast now is Stanford and that is only if ND requests it.   UVA/UNC would have to come as a pair and GTech gives them Atlanta.  

 

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1 minute ago, Hurtlocker said:

The only one I can see them adding in the West Coast now is Stanford and that is only if ND requests it.   UVA/UNC would have to come as a pair and GTech gives them Atlanta.  

 

Then just kick out Rutgers and swap them with Miami and it works out pretty well, lol.

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6 minutes ago, Al_4_ISU said:

This seems like a great system for determining the worthy competitors going forward.  ISU has beaten Texas 3 consecutive years, and absolutely demolished them last year.  Nebraska would have met the same fate.

In no world is the last three years' results relevant to this discussion.  You cherry-picked that little stat solely so that you could post that on our board to give yourself a giggle.

5-13 vs Texas in the Big XII era is a million times more relevant, and you damn well know it.

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9 minutes ago, Francisco 2.0 said:

 

If Vandy hasn't been tossed by now, the SEC is never going to toss them aside.  They were a founding member of the SEC.

Indiana has been in the BIG since 1899.  They aren't going anywhere, no matter how much they suck at football.

If ever a program deserved to get kicked out of a conference based on performance alone, Kansas would have been Exhibit A. Yet, they are still around.

 

Yeah, if you want to relegate, you need to destroy conferences, but there is a large subset who will never want to destroy conferences.

In other news, it was 2019, but here is the top 30 in football attendance.  I'm guessing not a ton has changed since:

 

2019 football attendance top 30.jpg

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I get the economics of this move, but how in the hell do SC and UCLA expect the logistics of this move to work? From a fan support standpoint, the only direction butts in the seats can go for those two is up, but how in the world can they expect any other sport besides football to flourish?

Football is unique in that it plays a very limited slate of games. 5 to 7 times a year the team flies out and has to deal with the fatigue, stress, and disruption that comes with consistently hopping multiple time zones.

Every other sport is looking at best case twice that number of trips. As someone who used to fly cross country on a weekly basis, that type of schedule takes a physical and mental toll. At some point athletes will be thinking about is it really worth it to play at SC or UCLA and endure the travel and all that goes with it bs playing elsewhere.

 

Yea the B10 is playing the long game in this and probably doesn’t care a ton if it cripples the new adds in the other sports, but I am not sure if I am either school I could be convinced to pull the trigger without a few more nearby options just to help out my other sports.

 

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22 minutes ago, Al_4_ISU said:

 ISU has beaten Texas 3 consecutive years  

CFB teams go up & down. It is about what you do when you are up. At its peak, Texas can win a national title. At its peak, ISU can beat a garbage Texas team 3 years in a row. 

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1 minute ago, Laxtonto said:

Every other sport is looking at best case twice that number of trips.

Let's think about UCLA's tennis team, 1/2 of their matches will be at home. They will also play some in town at USC. When you are flying, instead of going to Seattle or Phoenix, is the extra 1 to 1 1/2 hours to a Big 10 destination really that big a deal? 

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The "best 48 teams" aren't the best teams in the sense that they are the most competitive. Take a look at the preseason polls when they come out this year. You will find Texas and Nebraska ranked. Ask yourself if ISU could ever come off of a season like either of those teams just had and be ranked the following preseason. That would never happen, and that is what makes Nebraska and Texas better than you.
Can you at least admit how much bullshit it is that this is the case? Preseason polls shouldn't even exist let alone be based off of program prestige. It's a hilariously stupid system and it's amazing how many people love it.
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19 minutes ago, JFKFC said:

CFB teams go up & down. It is about what you do when you are up. At its peak, Texas can win a national title. At its peak, ISU can beat a garbage Texas team 3 years in a row. 

LOLz.  You make it sound like it happens all the time, or is a "peak" a once in 50 years event?

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27 minutes ago, Laxtonto said:

I get the economics of this move, but how in the hell do SC and UCLA expect the logistics of this move to work? From a fan support standpoint, the only direction butts in the seats can go for those two is up, but how in the world can they expect any other sport besides football to flourish?

Football is unique in that it plays a very limited slate of games. 5 to 7 times a year the team flies out and has to deal with the fatigue, stress, and disruption that comes with consistently hopping multiple time zones.

Every other sport is looking at best case twice that number of trips. As someone who used to fly cross country on a weekly basis, that type of schedule takes a physical and mental toll. At some point athletes will be thinking about is it really worth it to play at SC or UCLA and endure the travel and all that goes with it bs playing elsewhere.

 

Yea the B10 is playing the long game in this and probably doesn’t care a ton if it cripples the new adds in the other sports, but I am not sure if I am either school I could be convinced to pull the trigger without a few more nearby options just to help out my other sports.

 

Sounds like UCLA was bleeding money to the tune of like $40m a year and was already $100m in the red.  It was either figure out how to charter flights for everyone or get rid of sports.   

The Pac has this issue from top to bottom though, they tend to have the most sports, which costs far more as well.

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I don't know why this is an argument in the realignment thread. Nobody cares if UT can win a National Title or not, it is irrelevant to realignment. All they care is that y'all get a ton of eyeballs win or lose. 

 

A team that only has as many Big 12 football titles as Baylor isn't getting in because they are world beaters.

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The nightmare scenario here is that the Big12 or ACC poaches some programs and locks them up in another 10-year GOR, freezing this bullshit in place.  We all know where this is ending up: the B1G and SEC with 20-24 members  divided into geographical divisions, and the Group of 5 turning into the Group of 8.  An 8 to 12-team playoff (8 may be more likely now with the Power 2) that has no more than 1-2 entries for the G8 and the rest for the P2.

Let's just get there.  Fuck Notre Dame for their goddamn independence bullshit - freeze their ass out of the playoff and let's see how they feel.  Blow up the ACC GOR and get this shit moving.  Don't make us wait in limbo for another 10-15 years, soaking like the Mormans.

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1 minute ago, Hurtlocker said:

Sounds like UCLA was bleeding money to the tune of like $40m a year and was already $100m in the red.  It was either figure out how to charter flights for everyone or get rid of sports.   

The Pac has this issue from top to bottom though, they tend to have the most sports, which costs far more as well.

The $102 mil over 3 was an anomaly based on several factors, not the least of which was a whole football season and most of a basketball season played in front of ZERO fans.  Coupled with hefty buyout payments to Mora and Alford, and throw on top of that massively declining football attendance due to complete suckage, and there's your $102 (not really $40 mil per like that was the trend).  But there was nothing to indicate that there was a magic pill on the horizon to solve it.  So Jarmond had to find the magic pill, and this was it.  But it is a mischaracterization that the AD was bleeding $40 mil per year.  BUT, there was definitely going to be some olympic sport casualties.  no doubt about it.

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4 minutes ago, Horn of Gabriel said:

The nightmare scenario here is that the Big12 or ACC poaches some programs and locks them up in another 10-year GOR, freezing this bullshit in place.  We all know where this is ending up: the B1G and SEC with 20-24 members  divided into geographical divisions, and the Group of 5 turning into the Group of 8.  An 8 to 12-team playoff (8 may be more likely now with the Power 2) that has no more than 1-2 entries for the G8 and the rest for the P2.

Let's just get there.  Fuck Notre Dame for their goddamn independence bullshit - freeze their ass out of the playoff and let's see how they feel.  Blow up the ACC GOR and get this shit moving.  Don't make us wait in limbo for another 10-15 years, soaking like the Mormans.

Ten years ago, we all knew that this was headed to four 16 team super conferences. None of us really know a damned thing about what is going to happen other than it will suck.

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