Realignment talk not going away

[billfromlaketravis 11519]

I think the PAC stays at 10 and waits out playoff expansion. There's talk of ESPN arranging a scheduling pact with the ACC so they can get the ACC Network on the West Coast. 

[DFW Horn 6126]

5 minutes ago, billfromlaketravis said:

Now make 9 conference games happen. Texas plays OU, Aggy, and Piggy every year, and every SEC team every other year. 

Yeah, I don't see how the SEC maximizes its ESPN contract without going to a 9-game league schedule. The match-ups are so much better. They need to dump the November FCS games, too, IMO.

[mdmost 43004]

Big 10 can afford to wait out Notre Dame's decision. Notre Dame can afford to wait out what happens with the CFP. Someone is going to overpay for Notre Dame's media rights in 2025 if they don't join a conference. I don't think the Pac 10 or Big 12 really have an upperhand on the other given the lack of big brands. I guess we'll see what ESPN tells the Pac 10 in a month about future TV deals. This is where I could see ESPN deciding to relegate one or the other or possibly force a merger. I think Fox is fully committed to the new Big 10 and that's it. 

[billfromlaketravis 11519]

There's also some talk that the ACC will only play Power 5 opponents. They're already playing 9 conference games. 

[billfromlaketravis 11519]

Does anybody know CBS' plans? Big 10 and SEC aren't options. The ACC is unavailable until 2036. 

The Big 12 would be a viable partner. 

[chainsaw 9870]

4 minutes ago, mdmost said:

Big 10 can afford to wait out Notre Dame's decision. Notre Dame can afford to wait out what happens with the CFP. Someone is going to overpay for Notre Dame's media rights in 2025 if they don't join a conference. I don't think the Pac 10 or Big 12 really have an upperhand on the other given the lack of big brands. I guess we'll see what ESPN tells the Pac 10 in a month about future TV deals. This is where I could see ESPN deciding to relegate one or the other or possibly force a merger. I think Fox is fully committed to the new Big 10 and that's it. 

Notre Dame football, now on PlutoTV

[closetohumping 17452]

1 hour ago, BurntOrange&White said:

Allegedly there is a way out of the GOR's if enough teams leave the conference and they dip below a certain number of members(including ND). Don't know the exact number but there is a way, allegedly.

Guessing the big 12 has the same clause hence why ESPN was trying to push some of the schools to aac

[Laxtonto 12090]

11 minutes ago, camel at sea said:

 2) Phil Knight (net worth $40B) accepting Oregon's fate. 

Didn’t we see both Memphis and Louisville try to buy their way onto the big stage in recent past?

 

The problem is now, that there are more viable options than slots available and the new adds to the B10 aren’t willing to go to bat for Oregon. If the B10 wanted to add more schools there are a ton of other schools that would have more institutional support from member schools and I don’t think Knight has the power to overcome that. 
 

He has the money, but the antics of Oregon has rubbed many the wrong way to the point that the B10 is not an option (and neither is the SEC). So if he is wanting to stay in the big boy club, he better be focused on helping one of the B12 or Pac12 kill the other because any dream about the ACC to me is a pie in the sky dream that logistically is unsustainable to many of the other Pac12 partners.

[camel at sea 589]

14 minutes ago, DFW Horn said:

Yeah, I don't see how the SEC maximizes its ESPN contract without going to a 9-game league schedule. The match-ups are so much better. They need to dump the November FCS games, too, IMO.

Historically, the SEC has always been willing to take less contract money in exchange for an easier schedule / more wins / better national perception.  The extra wins helps the have-nots in the league to feel good about themselves and keep their stadiums relatively full.    

  

[camel at sea 589]

5 minutes ago, Laxtonto said:

Didn’t we see both Memphis and Louisville try to buy their way onto the big stage in recent past?

The problem is now, that there are more viable options than slots available and the new adds to the B10 aren’t willing to go to bat for Oregon. If the B10 wanted to add more schools there are a ton of other schools that would have more institutional support from member schools and I don’t think Knight has the power to overcome that. 

He has the money, but the antics of Oregon has rubbed many the wrong way to the point that the B10 is not an option (and neither is the SEC). So if he is wanting to stay in the big boy club, he better be focused on helping one of the B12 or Pac12 kill the other because any dream about the ACC to me is a pie in the sky dream that logistically is unsustainable to many of the other Pac12 partners.

Papa John Schnatter and Fred Smith aren't Phil Knight (neither are close to his net worth financially or with respect to sports media/industry clout.)  It's not just about Oregon's antics.  It's about leveraging Nike.  How much is he willing to do that?

I don't know what outcome he's willing to accept.  Maybe ultimately he's fine with some kind of "best of the PAC/B12" scenario for the Ducks.  But if not... there's probably no one individual capable of throwing a bigger monkey wrench into the conventional wisdom on this topic than Phil Knight.  

[perfectchaos007 6675]

7 minutes ago, camel at sea said:

Historically, the SEC has always been willing to take less contract money in exchange for an easier schedule / more wins / better national perception.  The extra wins helps the have-nots in the league to feel good about themselves and keep their stadiums relatively full.    

  

Yep. Practically every SEC team plays 3 cupcakes and 1 decent/good team OOC. They are all starting with 3 wins, which is why almost all of the teams except for Vandy go bowling each year 

[billfromlaketravis 11519]

Oregon is recruiting really well. They just landed Dante Moore. I don't think they're panicking, at least not yet. 

[bullet 1597]

38 minutes ago, billfromlaketravis said:

There's also some talk that the ACC will only play Power 5 opponents. They're already playing 9 conference games. 

The ACC only plays 8 conference games.  And they play more FCS schools than any other P5.  Frequently, one of their schools schedules 2.

Did you mean to say the Pac?

35 minutes ago, billfromlaketravis said:

Does anybody know CBS' plans? Big 10 and SEC aren't options. The ACC is unavailable until 2036. 

The Big 12 would be a viable partner. 

CBS is trying to get a Big 10 game of the week.  That's their first priority.  Apparently they are interested in ND as well.

[billfromlaketravis 11519]

CBS and Notre Dame would make some sense. 

[notre dame joe 188]

6 hours ago, LTtxfan said:

Amazon, Apple, and maybe even CBS may be players going forward in CFB.  "Football Only Conferences" are likely on the table now...

 

So will we see Football on Freevee ???  😋

 

 

4 hours ago, Vertigo said:

I think the next domino that could drop once things settle is that the conferences will see that a conference championship game is counterproductive. If you have two teams in the top 12, one of those will be knocked out. The payout will be far bigger if they both go to the playoff vs if they play a CCG. 

Thread is full of good ideas today.  Too bad they are unlikely to happen.

[clapclapclap 9000]

4 hours ago, DFW Horn said:

 

6 days old, dude.

[clapclapclap 9000]

4 hours ago, DFW Horn said:

 

Could be, maybe probably.  Or could be the butt cover of, "See, Mr. Lawyers, we didn't approach those teams and had no intention of expanding.  But when opportunity knocked..."

[Satchel 6938]

13 hours ago, TKthunder2 said:

They can charter out of the College Station airport, but for commercial they can’t, they have to go to DFW.  much like Lubbock.  The point was that it takes 3 hours per connection and only 90 minutes to bus it to Austin/Houston where they can take many direct flights.  Which isn’t something tech can do.

I love airplane travel justifications that sending a Midwest team to Lubbock via PHX is better a good thing…

How many? No idea and I don’t really care to look it up but back when I was flying to these universities for work I remembered that most had me connect through ORD to get back to Austin (to be fair ABIA was smaller back then).  The point was simply that travel to tech isn’t a selling point over aggy.  I could easily look up commercial travel times and prove the point but it seems so obvious that it would just be a waste of time.

Sure it is. Two airlines operate 737s out of Lubbock with direct flights to Las Vegas and non stops to Denver, Dallas,  Houston and Austin. Commercial College Station travelers can’t  go anywhere without going through Dallas or Houston. Looks like Tech football fans will be able to fly non stop to Denver to attend games at CU.

[billfromlaketravis 11519]

2 hours ago, bullet said:

The ACC only plays 8 conference games.  And they play more FCS schools than any other P5.  Frequently, one of their schools schedules 2.

Did you mean to say the Pac?

CBS is trying to get a Big 10 game of the week.  That's their first priority.  Apparently they are interested in ND as well.

Wouldn't Notre Dame home games be cheaper and deliver about the same number of TVs? 

[Texas Wahoo 3397]

16 minutes ago, billfromlaketravis said:

Wouldn't Notre Dame home games be cheaper and deliver about the same number of TVs? 

Notre Dame only gets them six games, while the Big Ten game of the week would get them twice that.

[billfromlaketravis 11519]

2 minutes ago, Texas Wahoo said:

Notre Dame only gets them six games, while the Big Ten game of the week would get them twice that.

I assume Fox has their pick of Tier 1 games for the Big Noon Kickoff? 

[Gidnik 3284]

🤮

[clapclapclap 9000]

ND's Swarbrick came out of a recent ACC meeting and said something about their being 2 emerging poles, the SEC and B1G, and schools better gravitate towards one or the other.  Now that could be a hardball negotiating strategy with tv bidders for ND's rights, or it could be telling.

One of ND's big concerns with the B1G, and one of the reasons it aligned with the ACC, is the lack of private schools in the B1G.  So an expansion strategy of adding Stanford, Miami, TCU, and maybe even GT could alleviate some of that.  ND may want enough added and the conference rules changed so that all the privates could block a vote.  Everything I've read so far on the TCU possibility is that it only happens if ND joins.

The greatly reduced non-conf schedule and the Navy commitment could be somewhat mitigated with certain additions.  TCU and Miami could be attractive in that ND could continue to play in those states relatively frequently.  Texas has 8 million Catholics, and while I'm sure they'd rather play us, playing TCU in Texas every few years could be sufficient for their needs.  Heck, might even be every other year if in a pod of Stanford, UCLA, USC, and OR/WA.  And TCU would surely be willing to do home games with ND in Houston, San Antonio, and Jerry World if it gets them into the B1G.

Fox seems to be trying to get the B1G to go with a pro style expansion strategy of planting flags in new big states/markets.  If there are only 2 top tier/broken away conferences, there's some additional benefit to making sure there's a franchise in the 2nd most populous state, that can be grown when the 6 state schools participating are reduced to 3.  Hence why the argument of, "They're small, don't fully carry DFW, and thus aren't worth the $100 million to justify adding" may not apply.  And TCU would likely take a very reduced share for years in exchange for the safety lifeline.

And we can add the probably a nonfactor argument that one of Swarbrick's kid went to TCU.

One possibility is going to 20 with ND, Stanford, OR/WA, and TCU, then waiting for ACC schools.  Or maybe go to 24 soon if ACC schools try to bolt.  Tug of war with the SEC for UNC, UVA, maybe even Clemson, FSU, or Miami.  Miami doesn't add value to the SEC other than if they can lock the B1G out of Florida, or for the unlikely lure of ND.  I'm guessing FSU/Clem/UNC/UVA ultimately choose the SEC (recruiting, travel, locational dominance), so we could see the B1G choosing 4 of Miami/VT/Duke/GT/WA.  I do think Fox is pushing for a B1G endgame of 24 (maybe 28 max).

 

 

Edited July 11, 2022 by clapclapclap

[Saint Austin 745]

Why would B1G add TCU?? I get that it would give them a footprint in Texas, but it's not even close to being AAU. If Notre Dame wanted more private schools, Stanford, Boston College, and others make a ton more sense.

[CleverNickname 1320]

Didn't Bill Powers want the Big10? I'm sure TX and OU made an overture to the Big10 last year, just to kick the tires, right? I think Ioke the games in the SEC more, and I bet the BMD wanted SEC, but there was an academic argument for the Big10.

[JFKFC 4890]

58 minutes ago, clapclapclap said:

the lack of private schools in the B1G.

Why? People keep saying this, but no one ever provides an answer for why this is a concern. 

[closetohumping 17452]

18 minutes ago, CleverNickname said:

Didn't Bill Powers want the Big10? I'm sure TX and OU made an overture to the Big10 last year, just to kick the tires, right? I think Ioke the games in the SEC more, and I bet the BMD wanted SEC, but there was an academic argument for the Big10.

I think it was Powers that wrote an email response to Gene Smith saying we had a "tech problem" ie we couldn't go anywhere without them and the B1G would never go for them.  But as far as I know, he, Mack and Deloss liked the Big 12.  They had the influence and we were winning.

[bullet 1597]

2 hours ago, Saint Austin said:

Why would B1G add TCU?? I get that it would give them a footprint in Texas, but it's not even close to being AAU. If Notre Dame wanted more private schools, Stanford, Boston College, and others make a ton more sense.

Agreed.  Plus the B$G has too big an ego to play 2nd fiddle to the $EC.  Unless its Virginia or North Carolina, I don't see those two conferences overlapping.

[Trevor Belmont 19]

2 hours ago, Saint Austin said:

Why would B1G add TCU?? I get that it would give them a footprint in Texas, but it's not even close to being AAU. If Notre Dame wanted more private schools, Stanford, Boston College, and others make a ton more sense.

TCU is one of the only P5 schools that isn’t a Carnegie R1 university. The thought that the B$G would add them for a Texas footprint is laughable. 

[Hagbard Celine 10872]

10 hours ago, Murfdogg21 said:

TCU should be sending Bobby Bonilla-style commission checks to LaDanian Tomlinson and Coach Fran for giving TCU this fake image of sports prestige. They are athletically average, academically below average, and don’t have an alumni base comparable to most P5 schools. They were just lucky to fall into aggy’s spot in the Big 12. 

 

[Gidnik 3284]

lol this guy is such a clown 

 

 

8 minutes ago, Hagbard Celine said:

 

Tcu definitely has talent 

[Hurtlocker 2213]

10 hours ago, billfromlaketravis said:

Does anybody know CBS' plans? Big 10 and SEC aren't options. The ACC is unavailable until 2036. 

The Big 12 would be a viable partner. 

The Big Ten is still an option, but the SEC and ACC are out.   If they wiff on the Big Ten then more likely to have the B12 over the Pac.

[FORTY NINE TO ZERO 2652]

 

cool texas monthly article from 1974 on conference realignment 

it really is funny how the more things change, the more they stay the same  

The Decline and Fall of the Southwest Conference Two things are certain: death and Texas.

 

Quote

There was a time when Southwest Conference football was more than a sport; it was a social institution, as definitive of Texas life as the oil well or the open range. Each school symbolized a different way of life, and the meeting of two football teams represented a confrontation between life styles. People who had never attended college nonetheless identified themselves with one of the conference schools: farmers and laborers with Texas A&M, Baptists with Baylor, Dallas socialites with SMU, West Texas farmers and ranchers with TCU. The Southwest Conference is a relic of a time when Texas was both diverse and chauvinistic, varied yet inbred.

Life was simpler then; people knew who they were. They were willing to fit themselves into the categories the conference so conveniently presented. But the old generalizations are no longer valid; Texas has changed, the schools have changed, and the Southwest Conference no longer mirrors the Texas social structure. Tormented by economic and social pressures, the private schools have begun to doubt their own ability to survive. Their athletic programs are only another competitor for the entertainment dollar, and not a very successful one at that.

 

[Al_4_ISU 12469]

I would bet that the Big 12 ends up involved with CBS.

Prior to UCLA and USC leaving, they were looking at similar valuations for the Pac 12 and Big 12.  With the Pac renegotiating it's rights, we'll see where the 2 leagues are valued, and that will determine what happens next.

If the SEC and Big 10 are truly just going to say at 16, I could see the Pac 12 staying together.  If the Big 12 is going to make more, and the thought remains out there that Oregon and Washington will have the chance to bail, I'd think the 4 corners leave.  

[maninblack 7974]

 

[Thiefery 5013]

11 minutes ago, Al_4_ISU said:

I would bet that the Big 12 ends up involved with CBS.

Prior to UCLA and USC leaving, they were looking at similar valuations for the Pac 12 and Big 12.  With the Pac renegotiating it's rights, we'll see where the 2 leagues are valued, and that will determine what happens next.

If the SEC and Big 10 are truly just going to say at 16, I could see the Pac 12 staying together.  If the Big 12 is going to make more, and the thought remains out there that Oregon and Washington will have the chance to bail, I'd think the 4 corners leave.  

would the big12 possibly take a low ball offer from CBS if it meant they would now take over their 3:30pm slot?

[Al_4_ISU 12469]

4 minutes ago, Thiefery said:

would the big12 possibly take a low ball offer from CBS if it meant they would now take over their 3:30pm slot?

For part of their package probably.

I think the Big 12 will end up parceled between multiple media partners.  I could see that being the path to the optimal mix of exposure and value.

I don't think they'll have to take a particularly low offer to do it.  By that, I mean they won't have to lowball the Big 12's current expectations.  It will absolutely be a low ball compared to the SEC and Big 10.  CBS isn't going to bother with trying to get the SEC and Big 10, but there will be a price point where it's a win/win for CBS and the Big 12 to get into bed together.  CBS gets high interest college football, which will blow whatever else they'd carry in that slot out of the water, for well below the going rate of the 2 biggest conferences, and the Big 12 gets a solid pay day and great exposure.  Would likely include some Paramount streaming or promotion of the CBS Sports channel for lesser games too.

Edited July 12, 2022 by Al_4_ISU

[Deej 76834]

Bring back Raycom for Big 12 games. Broadcast all the games in 4:3 aspect ratio and standard definition. 

[TxEx84 405]

17 minutes ago, Deej said:

Bring back Raycom for Big 12 games. Broadcast all the games in 4:3 aspect ratio and standard definition. 

TV?  You mean radio with Kern Tips, right?

[Deej 76834]

1 minute ago, TxEx84 said:

TV?  You mean radio with Kern Tips, right?

They did games on TV. 

 

[TrashMaster G 17566]

11 hours ago, Hagbard Celine said:

 

[closetohumping 17452]

13 hours ago, bullet said:

Agreed.  Plus the B$G has too big an ego to play 2nd fiddle to the $EC.  Unless its Virginia or North Carolina, I don't see those two conferences overlapping.

I'd assume if both go to 20 I think they're going to have to workout some scheduling as the other conferences may not want to play them.

[Guest]

The other Conferences will do as they are told.

Is this not screaming obvious yet?

[statsman 5472]

The new B12 won’t get media contracts in amounts anywhere near the B10 and SEC. If it wants to maximize TV revenue, it can get larger contracts by:

1. Scheduling conference games starting in season week 1 (SEC has done this for years). 
2. Dropping the games against FCS teams, which are so worthless the networks don’t want them even when a blue blood school is involved. 
 

Of course, both of these moves go against the strategy developed by Snyder for program development, and adopted by every B12 have-not program. None of BU, ISU, KSU, KU, TCU, TT, WVU or OSU want to do this, but would rather one of their co-members take the hit for the team. 

[Trey3216 15347]

Well come on all of you big strong men,
Realignment is here again
Pac 12 is now in a terrible jam
Thanks to their old friends in the Big 10
Put down your pride and pick up the phone
We're gonna have a a whole lotta fun

and it's 1, 2, 3 What is realigning for?
Don't ask me I don't give a damn
Next stop new conference, man.
and it's 5, 6, 7; know you can't afford to wait
Ain't no time for standin by
Whoopee! Which conference gonna die?

[The Hot Dog Buffet 1291]

17 minutes ago, statsman said:

The new B12 won’t get media contracts in amounts anywhere near the B10 and SEC. If it wants to maximize TV revenue, it can get larger contracts by:

1. Scheduling conference games starting in season week 1 (SEC has done this for years). 
2. Dropping the games against FCS teams, which are so worthless the networks don’t want them even when a blue blood school is involved. 
 

Of course, both of these moves go against the strategy developed by Snyder for program development, and adopted by every B12 have-not program. None of BU, ISU, KSU, KU, TCU, TT, WVU or OSU want to do this, but would rather one of their co-members take the hit for the team. 

The FCS games are less about the easy wins and more about not having to schedule a home and home. The extra home game every year makes more money than scheduling North Texas over Missouri State would.

[Vertigo 20290]

12 hours ago, Gidnik said:

lol this guy is such a clown 

 

That would actually be a fairly brilliant move if there is any truth to it.

LHN is already carried regionally, ESPN gets to increase the value of that property that was dead in the water by adding more subscribers for T3 games, plus the LHN can't move to the SEC. ESPN, in essence, is having the B12 self fund the Texas/OU exit and let them out a year early. Plus they just bought OU's T3 media rights as a fallback in case they have to write a check to exit early.  

[DFW Horn 6126]

25 minutes ago, The Hot Dog Buffet said:

The FCS games are less about the easy wins and more about not having to schedule a home and home. The extra home game every year makes more money than scheduling North Texas over Missouri State would.

True, but fun fact - UT has played UNT 10x with every game in Austin.

I don't see any P5 team playing in FCS stadiums. If they schedule FBS, non-P5, it's usually a 2 for 1 deal. 

Edited July 12, 2022 by DFW Horn

[statsman 5472]

15 minutes ago, The Hot Dog Buffet said:

The FCS games are less about the easy wins and more about not having to schedule a home and home. The extra home game every year makes more money than scheduling North Texas over Missouri State would.

Yet some schools, like Texas, manage to never schedule a FCS school. 
For a TV contract, you want to have quality games each week. This is where the blue bloods come in. In the B10, every game involving Michigan, Ohio State, and PSU is attractive. Games involving MSU, Illinois, Nebraska and Wisconsin still have appeal. Other teams can often market flashy offenses. 
In the SEC, games involving Florida, Georgia, Alabama, and LSU are always attractive. Games with Tennessee, Auburn, and TAMU still have appeal. 
 

In the ur-B12, Texas, OU and NU provided National appeal while CU and TAMU were solid second tiers. KSU was an upstart while TT and OSU could provide occasional flashes. 

In the new B12, you have OSU and TT as the flag bearers now. Start trying to fill out a week by week schedule and tell me how much a network should pay for a slate that headlines ISU-BU?

[thunderlounge 7868]

3 minutes ago, statsman said:

In the new B12, you have OSU and TT as the flag bearers now. Start trying to fill out a week by week schedule and tell me how much a network should pay for a slate that headlines ISU-BU?

Duh. Bout tree fiddy.