Realignment talk not going away

[camel at sea 589]

57 minutes ago, DFW Horn said:

🤡

 

Media partner:  We need someone to kick-off late at night.  Unfortunately, the PAC is our only option.
Big 12:  We'll do it.  BYU is already in a good time zone for that.  We can sell the fanbases in Lubbock, Stillwater, Ames, etc., to be on board with "Big 12 After Dark" once a year, each.  We'll get you the late kickoffs you need.  We're open to adding Boise if it helps. 

[clapclapclap 9000]

Donors and ticket sales will revolt if central time schools try to do even a single 9:30pm local start, so I don't see it happening, other than maybe a one off. 

Some thoughts from a "Retired President of Fox Sports Networks and Fox Sports International."  The Oregon writer Canzano has quoted him in articles:

 

 

[Hurtlocker 2212]

57 minutes ago, LTbear said:

"The ability to provide 10:30ET games," just like I have the ability to provide Scarlett Johansen with 15 of the most okay seconds of her life. 

15 seconds of mostly ok is better than 14 seconds of mostly ok

[Hurtlocker 2212]

32 minutes ago, notre dame joe said:

ASU is an absurdly underused market featuring a stadium no one wants to be in. 

 

I suspect that the Big12-PAC talks were killed by a few schools who heard they will get something betteer. 

I watched Oregon State curb stomp the Irish in that stadium!

They also gave me all their booze when they left early.

For those who know the Cubs, I may also have run into Ronnie WooWoo after at a daquiri bar sometime after Mark Grace fixed his teeth.

Either all of those comments are true or none are, and, honestly, I'm not sure which is which.

[DFW Horn 6123]

 

[mdmost 43000]

 

[Azbadlands 109]

53 minutes ago, notre dame joe said:

ASU is an absurdly underused market featuring a stadium no one wants to be in. 

 

I suspect that the Big12-PAC talks were killed by a few schools who heard they will get something betteer. 

You mean ASU's new stadium?  It was pretty nice the last time I was there to watch them play Oregon a year or so ago...Definitely better than what they had before when both the Sun Devils and Cardinals played there..

Edited July 19, 2022 by Azbadlands

[Rickylovesweed 14262]

Here's my question. 

If the end goal of the SEC and the Big 10 is to become the 2 power conferences why not go after Oregon and I guess Oklahoma State? You would really dilute their value if the assumption is they're going to eventually merge. 

No matter what type of merger happens between the ACC, Pac, and Big 12 it's going to be a tier 2 conference behind the SEC and Big 10 but if you really wanted to build 2 true power conferences just stealing 1 or 2 more teams from the other P5 would likely severely undermine their value. 

[Hurtlocker 2212]

14 minutes ago, Rickylovesweed said:

Here's my question. 

If the end goal of the SEC and the Big 10 is to become the 2 power conferences why not go after Oregon and I guess Oklahoma State? You would really dilute their value if the assumption is they're going to eventually merge. 

No matter what type of merger happens between the ACC, Pac, and Big 12 it's going to be a tier 2 conference behind the SEC and Big 10 but if you really wanted to build 2 true power conferences just stealing 1 or 2 more teams from the other P5 would likely severely undermine their value. 

I don't think their end goal is to become the only two conferences, just the only two power ones.   Even if the ACC/Big12/Pac live to fight another day, the money and power is now consolidated on two fronts.   

[LTbear 4168]

 

 

[HouTex 1866]

I keep checking in on this thread hoping to see an announcement that we will be in the SEC beginning with the 2023, or even 2024, season.  What’s the consensus on when the move will happen?   I really don’t see it happening early.  

[MrBig 5385]

33 minutes ago, Hurtlocker said:

I don't think their end goal is to become the only two conferences, just the only two power ones.   Even if the ACC/Big12/Pac live to fight another day, the money and power is now consolidated on two fronts.   

It’s ESPN vs Fox. But the 2nd and 3rd tier rights still influence realignment.

Doesn’t ESPN own all the 3rd tier rights for the Pac 12, Big 12, and ACC? 

[bullet 1596]

2 hours ago, DFW Horn said:

🤡

 

TV deal coming up a year sooner is totally irrelevant.  10:30 ET games are worth about as much as FS2 games. Also irrelevant.

Probably has the weakest brands in either league as well.

[bullet 1596]

1 hour ago, Rickylovesweed said:

Oregon and Washington? 

I agree. I thought this would be the hold up. Oregon is going to bounce to the SEC or Big 10 the moment they get an opportunity. Will it happen? 

The Big 12 killed the merger talks.  Finances killed the pooling talks.

[bullet 1596]

29 minutes ago, LTbear said:

 

 

So unequal revenue sharing between UW, Oregon, Oregon St., Washington St., Cal, Stanford and whatever 4 MWC teams they can get to join them?

[bullet 1596]

27 minutes ago, HouTex said:

I keep checking in on this thread hoping to see an announcement that we will be in the SEC beginning with the 2023, or even 2024, season.  What’s the consensus on when the move will happen?   I really don’t see it happening early.  

I think we say thank you Big 10!  I originally thought 2023, but lately had been thinking we were stuck until 2025.  But the Big 12 is talking and USC/UCLA are moving in 2024, so we do too.

7 minutes ago, MrBig said:

It’s ESPN vs Fox. But the 2nd and 3rd tier rights still influence realignment.

Doesn’t ESPN own all the 3rd tier rights for the Pac 12, Big 12, and ACC? 

Pac 12 owns their own and manages to make next to nothing on it.

[Not a Sock 2311]

28 minutes ago, HouTex said:

I keep checking in on this thread hoping to see an announcement that we will be in the SEC beginning with the 2023, or even 2024, season.  What’s the consensus on when the move will happen?   I really don’t see it happening early.  

2024 at the earliest as ESPN takes over the SEC from CBS but at that point why pay a hefty exit penalty instead of just letting the GOR expire.

[Hurtlocker 2212]

10 minutes ago, MrBig said:

It’s ESPN vs Fox. But the 2nd and 3rd tier rights still influence realignment.

Doesn’t ESPN own all the 3rd tier rights for the Pac 12, Big 12, and ACC? 

No, they own all of the ACC's rights, which is why the ACC is proper fucked.   There isn't a raise in there for them and they're pretty well bound together for a decade.   In more positive news, no one is raiding them either so they can just keep on keeping on.

The Pac 12 has the Pac12 Network and its a bomb.   It could have been could, but they dumped money into buildings and not getting more households.  Likely will have to torpedo that investment as lost in the next TV round.   Their T1/2 is split between Fox and ESPN

The Big 12 does have their T3 with ESPN now, through the end of this contract.   This includes OU/Texas, who have their T3 separate from both the Big 12 and the SECN.  T1/2, like the Pac, is shared between Fox/ESPN.

The irony is the Pac12 may lose a linear channel and the Big 12 could pick one up.   Especially if they go to 16.

[Hurtlocker 2212]

6 minutes ago, Not a Sock said:

2024 at the earliest as ESPN takes over the SEC from CBS but at that point why pay a hefty exit penalty instead of just letting the GOR expire.

There is still an exit fee, there just isn't a negotiation to buy rights back.

[camel at sea 589]

1 hour ago, mdmost said:

 

This is Navigate's Power 5 Payout projections from March 2022, and it factors in the Longhorns and Sooners changing conferences:  https://nvgt.com/blog/power-5-conference-payout-estimates/

The PAC 12 (w/ SC and UCLA) were only barely ahead of the new Big 12.  Now the PAC media apologists (most of them shared and commented on this Navigate data a few months ago) are proclaiming loudly that losing SC and UCLA isn't going to matter that much?  How does that work?  SC + UCLA can take the Big Ten to new financial riches but losing them has no impact on the PAC?  Something doesn't add up.  

[Biggus Duckus 86]

2 hours ago, DFW Horn said:

 

Friday night championship was a terrible idea, especially when everyone knows it's gonna be a blowout.

[MrBig 5385]

I see ND & NBC remaining together and creating a partnership with the remaining Big 12/Pac 12 teams for college football streaming on Peacock.

NBC is desperate to get college sports on its Peacock app. They will overpay for the streaming rights to ND games plus all the dogshit Big 12 Now games currently on ESPN+ when those contracts are up.

NBC/Peacock needs ND to draw in national viewers so they can promote regional college football to areas like Utah and Lubbock. 

The Utah and Lubbock crowd would go wild for a Peacock subscription that had their favorite college teams + unlimited Dateline NBC & Real Housewives episodes for the ladies. Nobody is watching Peacock now but this is definitely a way to draw people in.

[thunderlounge 7815]

33 minutes ago, camel at sea said:

This is Navigate's Power 5 Payout projections from March 2022, and it factors in the Longhorns and Sooners changing conferences:  https://nvgt.com/blog/power-5-conference-payout-estimates/

The PAC 12 (w/ SC and UCLA) were only barely ahead of the new Big 12.  Now the PAC media apologists (most of them shared and commented on this Navigate data a few months ago) are proclaiming loudly that losing SC and UCLA isn't going to matter that much?  How does that work?  SC + UCLA can take the Big Ten to new financial riches but losing them has no impact on the PAC?  Something doesn't add up.  

THIS is why that “new math” shit was a horrid idea.

 

[Crockett 490]

9 hours ago, bullet said:

Cal and Stanford can go climb a tree.

As a BYU and UCLA grad I would love this outcome lol

[thunderlounge 7815]

Hot take. Thanks for the summary of the last 3 pages, I guess. 

[Trey3216 15345]

19 minutes ago, sportsbay said:

Huge move yesterday. ND and the B12 apparently are in a deal with NBC to package programming. ND isn't going to the B12 or the B10. ND is going to stay with the ACC but will have a separate TV deal as an independent. NBC will take on B12 games as well to fill out inventory. Why is this important? We are very close to getting 4 16 team conferences. What happens with the playoff? If the playoff stays at 4 teams, do we get 4 auto bids in the new playoff instead of 4 pageant winners after 2025? This could happen if b10, b12, and acc corner the SEC.  I think Saban's posturing on late kick is indicative of SEC's predicament. 

1. WVU or UCF goes to ACC

2. 5 teams from Pac join B12.

[Wulaw Horn 19068]

Literally no way a playoff puts the SEC in parity with the leftovers from the Big 12/PAC 12 and an extremely top heavy ACC. No fucking way. Like, absurdly stupid idea and he should feel horrible for even bringing it up. 

[TKthunder2 4985]

46 minutes ago, sportsbay said:

Huge move yesterday. ND and the B12 apparently are in a deal with NBC to package programming. ND isn't going to the B12 or the B10. ND is going to stay with the ACC but will have a separate TV deal as an independent. NBC will take on B12 games as well to fill out inventory. Why is this important? We are very close to getting 4 16 team conferences. What happens with the playoff? If the playoff stays at 4 teams, do we get 4 auto bids in the new playoff instead of 4 pageant winners after 2025? This could happen if b10, b12, and acc corner the SEC.  I think Saban's posturing on late kick is indicative of SEC's predicament. 

1. WVU or UCF goes to ACC

2. 5 teams from Pac join B12.

Yeah, I’m sure the SEC and B1G with all the bluebloods will give equal access to the PAC/B12/ACC (and what about ND) that have zero bluebloods. Why doesn’t the NFL give playoff spots to the champs of the XFL or USFL? At best I could see expansion to 8 with top 4 champs getting autobids.

Also lol at UCF going to the ACC while FSU/Miami are still around.

[NIUHuskies 504]

1 hour ago, sportsbay said:

Huge move yesterday. ND and the B12 apparently are in a deal with NBC to package programming. ND isn't going to the B12 or the B10. ND is going to stay with the ACC but will have a separate TV deal as an independent. NBC will take on B12 games as well to fill out inventory. Why is this important? We are very close to getting 4 16 team conferences. What happens with the playoff? If the playoff stays at 4 teams, do we get 4 auto bids in the new playoff instead of 4 pageant winners after 2025? This could happen if b10, b12, and acc corner the SEC.  I think Saban's posturing on late kick is indicative of SEC's predicament. 

1. WVU or UCF goes to ACC

2. 5 teams from Pac join B12.

Cincy would be a better move than WVU. You get a foothold in Ohio and good football and basketball history.

[Wulaw Horn 19068]

44 minutes ago, sportsbay said:

I'm probably wrong on only 4 teams.  I can see some form of 4 autobids and 8 invites with a seeding structure. 

That’s possible. But no way SEC limits itself to 1 of 4 man. Probably not the B1G either for that matter. 

[Vermin 3043]

1 minute ago, Wulaw Horn said:

That’s possible. But no way SEC limits itself to 1 of 4 man. Probably not the B1G either for that matter. 

They aren't. They will get the lion's share of the 8 at-large.

[closetohumping 17435]

11 minutes ago, Wulaw Horn said:

That’s possible. But no way SEC limits itself to 1 of 4 man. Probably not the B1G either for that matter. 

Yea but I can’t imagine anyone putting that in writing.  

[TKthunder2 4985]

2 hours ago, sportsbay said:

ACC has more playoff appearances than b10.  Don't underestimate the b10's butthurt complex.  If the three non sec conferences can guarantee a participant in the final 4 every year, they will do it.  Will the SEC join or go their own way?  They'll join.

They won’t if it’s your champ plays these other champs for a title.  They’ll abstain and hold their own playoff and let the polls decide.

If UT/OU had joined the PAC and ND been forced into the ACC with WVU then maybe the 4x16 4 champ playoff idea could have worked.  But it’s way too unbalanced now and the non SEC/B1G champs will be playing a far tougher schedule than the other conferences and should be rewarded for doing so.

4 teams will either stay exactly the same or not work at all

8 teams might give playoff spots to the top 4 champs (it’s likely unnecessary as 4 champions will nearly always be in the top 8 ) but they won’t specifically be labeled for the SEC/B1G/ACC/BigPac.

I don’t see 12 happening now.  The Alliance fucked that up.  Why play an extra round if it’s unnecessary?  Do we really need to see a 3 loss team playing for a title?

[Not a Sock 2311]

6 minutes ago, sportsbay said:

A 2nd or 3rd place 2/3 loss SEC team is likely to have a "higher" rpi than a 1 loss b12 or ACC champ.  This will get messy if the lower 2 conferences think they are written off.  It will kill cfb.

The lower conferences don’t matter anymore they’ll agree to what the SEC and Big 10 want or they can rot.

[hawkfan 60]

4 hours ago, TKthunder2 said:

 

I don’t see 12 happening now.  The Alliance fucked that up.  Why play an extra round if it’s unnecessary?  Do we really need to see a 3 loss team playing for a title?

I actually view 12 as the most likely outcome because this has never been about determining a champion, it's always been as easy as following the money, and the networks want more highly rated games.  If we assume this eventually leads to:

24 School B1G

20 School SEC

20 School left behind conference featuring P12/B12/ACC Remains

I think a 12 school playoff will make the most sense because the B1G/SEC know they'll get most of those spots, but giving 3-4 to the outsiders helps them avoid anti-trust suits.

I think we'll also get to a spot where those 64 schools break away and only schedule each other for the most part to maximize their TV ratings.

[statsman 5451]

For years, people have predicted a paring down of D-1A/FBS from 100+ (and growing) to 64 (four conferences). The assumption was that there would be four major conferences with blue bloods in each. 
I don’t see 64 teams as “magic” anymore. Look at the Big 12- it only has two members that ever won a MNC (TCU and BYU) and TCU’s were before Hitler invaded Poland and BYU beat a 7-5 Wolverines team for theirs. 48 looks more solid to me. 
Don’t look to the NCAA to take up the cause of 64- they represent 250+ and have no power, in football, anyway. Don’t look to the networks, either. They’re not fighting for the right to have UH in a first round playoff game. 

Edited July 20, 2022 by statsman

[statsman 5451]

“Let’s”? I don’t think we have anything to do with it. 
English soccer has a similar problem- lots of locally supported teams with ardent fanbases. The bigger cities have teams with more money, so they can afford to pay more, so they have better rosters. They segment the teams into different divisions at different levels of competition. Teams can compete well and be promoted up, or struggle and be relegated down. Typically, the premier league has the richest teams. 
In this current age of NIL-paid players and free roster movements, why wouldn’t college football be arranged similarly?

[Wulaw Horn 19068]

6 hours ago, TKthunder2 said:

They won’t if it’s your champ plays these other champs for a title.  They’ll abstain and hold their own playoff and let the polls decide.

If UT/OU had joined the PAC and ND been forced into the ACC with WVU then maybe the 4x16 4 champ playoff idea could have worked.  But it’s way too unbalanced now and the non SEC/B1G champs will be playing a far tougher schedule than the other conferences and should be rewarded for doing so.

4 teams will either stay exactly the same or not work at all

8 teams might give playoff spots to the top 4 champs (it’s likely unnecessary as 4 champions will nearly always be in the top 8 ) but they won’t specifically be labeled for the SEC/B1G/ACC/BigPac.

I don’t see 12 happening now.  The Alliance fucked that up.  Why play an extra round if it’s unnecessary?  Do we really need to see a 3 loss team playing for a title?

I would argue with this. With the big 10 and SEC expansion and deepening of their leagues we do need to see a 3 or 4 loss team be able to play for a title, especially if we go to 10 or 11 conference games which we should be rooting for. 

let’s pretend for a minute that aggy went 8-4. I know, I know, that record seems impossible for them. But what if they did it in a world where they beat Bama, Auburn, Oklahoma, Florida, Missouri, Arkansas, Mississippi State and Sam Houston State and lost to Texas, LSU, Georgia, Mississippi. Do you really want to argue that that’s worse than tech going 12-1 against what’s left in their conference, and a non conference of UH, Texas state and UtSA?  

We should be convincing leagues to play more conference games especially as conferences get bigger. It’s better for TV money (which is good for the schools), it’s better for the fans, it’s more interesting and more fun. The only way it’s fair for the SEC and Big 10 to schedule more/better conference games, with so many helmet schools in their conferences now post most recent merger deals, is to enable teams that play a fierce schedule and win 2/3 or 3/4 games to play for it all. That means 3 or 4 loss teams might get in and that’s ok and they should. 

Otherwise the teams will set up their schedule with loss avoidance as their primary motivation, and loss avoidance leads to shitty schedules and boring football games. 

Edited July 20, 2022 by Wulaw Horn

[Wulaw Horn 19068]

9 hours ago, sportsbay said:

ACC has more playoff appearances than b10.  Don't underestimate the b10's butthurt complex.  If the three non sec conferences can guarantee a participant in the final 4 every year, they will do it.  Will the SEC join or go their own way?  They'll join.

 

7 hours ago, Vermin said:

They aren't. They will get the lion's share of the 8 at-large.

He was talking about all four conferences getting 1 team in a 4 team playoff originally which is what I was pushing back against. That idea is sheer lunacy. 

[Doc Sam Beckett 5792]

On 7/18/2022 at 5:41 PM, Hurtlocker said:

But...why?   Does Clemson even sniff those titles if they're playing in the SEC instead of the ACC?   

 

 

On 7/18/2022 at 6:27 PM, MrBig said:

No. But that’s the point. Clemson was good enough to “sniff the titles” and make the CFP as an ACC team vs being a Pac 12 or Big 12 Team. This means that the Pac 12 & Big 12 don’t mean shit to the CFP and confirms that the Pac 12 & Big 12 have already been 2nd tier for a long time. Adding Clemson to the SEC is just for vanity and marketing purposes for the SEC now.

 

Lol of course Clemson still "sniffs" those titles. They played 3 secsecsec teams both title years and blanked Ohio State one year and pounded Notre Dame the other. They were the best team in college football both years and mixing in some more Vandy/Tenn/Ole Miss wasn't going to change a damn thing. 

[bullet 1596]

4 hours ago, statsman said:

For years, people have predicted a paring down of D-1A/FBS from 100+ (and growing) to 64 (four conferences). The assumption was that there would be four major conferences with blue bloods in each. 
I don’t see 64 teams as “magic” anymore. Look at the Big 12- it only has two members that ever won a MNC (TCU and BYU) and TCU’s were before Hitler invaded Poland and BYU beat a 7-5 Wolverines team for theirs. 48 looks more solid to me. 
Don’t look to the NCAA to take up the cause of 64- they represent 250+ and have no power, in football, anyway. Don’t look to the networks, either. They’re not fighting for the right to have UH in a first round playoff game. 

I think the number will be 80-100.  The powers and the peons in power conferences want someone to beat.  Plus, that is where we have always ended up before.  First, when they set up I-AA.  Then after the Supreme Court ruling, they formed the CFA with roughly 65 schools + Big 10/Pac 10 with 20.  In the 90s they had the equity conferences with 6 BCS conferences + CUSA and WAC 16.  The MAC and Big West/Sun Belt (and now CUSA) are the ones that get left out.

The powers need their serfs.

[DFW Horn 6123]

 

[thunderlounge 7815]

And they will still get poached. 

['stache 21797]

18 minutes ago, DFW Horn said:

 

I hate that I don't hate this. Very unrealistic, but fun little thought experiment. 

[hawkfan 60]

Lol, this is what happens right before your conference dies.

 

[hawkfan 60]

But what are the options tho?

Apparently tell ND they can join and you pay them $100M per year while everyone else gets $20M or something?  That's the only way they'd consider it.

 

Edited July 20, 2022 by hawkfan

[Trey3216 15345]

Full on bargaining and moving towards acceptance...

 

 

 

[clapclapclap 9000]

39 minutes ago, Trey3216 said:

Full on bargaining and moving towards acceptance...

 

 

Maybe the B12 going for just 6 is being polite and respecting California's preference, since they're pretty much all on CA's boycott list.

[statsman 5451]

With no changes, in two years, there will be a 32 team “super D1”, and it will consist of the B10 and SEC. If there are four playoff spots, these two leagues will take 2-4 of them. If there are 12 playoff spots, it will be set up so that those conferences take 7-9 of the slots. These two conferences will make 2-3 times as much in media money as the next tier. 
As more money comes into the game, having money to spend will be more important than ever. The ACC/PAC/B12 will crave games with the big boys, for the gate and to keep the alums happy. I imagine the terms will be 2 home and 1 away. How will the Power-lite 3 schools respond?

I imagine that eventually, the SEC and B10 will offer the PL3 schools the chance to join the SEC and B10 junior divisions, with a chance to earns a promotion up. In return, they get media contracts every bit as big, a home and home game scheduled with a senior division school, and a chance for a promotion up (and the corresponding big media money) for as long as they can keep it. And that’s how D-1 segmentation will happen. 

Edited July 20, 2022 by statsman

[thunderlounge 7815]

2 years? It’s not that close yet, but like winter, it’s coming.