Realignment talk not going away

[Frieda’s Boss 181]

5 hours ago, Al_4_ISU said:

Stewart Mandel's numbers are really slanted to make the Pac 12 look better.  He's a Pac homer.  There's a reason nearly everyone has estimated the Big 12's share to be a fair bit larger than the Pac's, outside of Pac 12 homers.

Because the PAC 12/10 is in their negotiating window and the networks/bidders are trying to drive down their worth with “leaks” for  public consumption?

[ChiTownDoc 21,139]

Boy, it sure looks like OU and UT were bringing a whole lot to the rest of the big12.  Why not tell OU and UT to guarantee 2 games vs 12 teams for the next decade or so and let them out early.  It makes all the sense in the world.  Their next television contract would be worth a lot more and OU/UT get to bail and not have these deadbeat seasons.  OU can oblige Gundy's dumbass and dump bedlam or even better the conference can tell Gundy to go fuck himself and force it down his throat. 

[statsman 5,450]

Or, the stick. UT and OU say that if you gouge us on the way out, we’re done playing you ever. (With OSU, we should never play in Pickens Stadium until they get full size sidelines, for player safety, anyways). 
 

And it’s possible that Texas and OU have no intention of ever playing those teams again. 

[thunderlounge 7,813]

42 minutes ago, Mitch Cumsteen said:

I guess this is the real question that should be asked:

Do your ratings suck because you are on a shitty network at a shitty time? Or are you on a shitty network at a shitty time because your ratings suck?

Or is it that your teams suck, so your ratings suck, so here’s the bare minimum obligation as per contract? 

['stache 21,789]

29 minutes ago, ChiTownDoc said:

Boy, it sure looks like OU and UT were bringing a whole lot to the rest of the big12.  Why not tell OU and UT to guarantee 2 games vs 12 teams for the next decade or so and let them out early.  It makes all the sense in the world.  Their next television contract would be worth a lot more and OU/UT get to bail and not have these deadbeat seasons.  OU can oblige Gundy's dumbass and dump bedlam or even better the conference can tell Gundy to go fuck himself and force it down his throat. 

What a terrific way of putting it, who could plausibly reject such an offer?

[ChiTownDoc 21,139]

6 minutes ago, 'stache said:

What a terrific way of putting it, who could plausibly reject such an offer?

The Gundy part is obviously a joke.  But giving a few games a year for a decade makes very real sense.  

Quit being so butthurt.  At least for Gundy it makes sense being that it’s his livelihood and all…

['stache 21,789]

1 minute ago, ChiTownDoc said:

The Gundy part is obviously a joke.  But giving a few games a year for a decade makes very real sense.  

Quit being so butthurt.  At least for Gundy it makes sense being that it’s his livelihood and all…

I've said it before, if ESPN wants you guys early, they can make it happen, and providing a financial boost through scheduling and programming is certainly on the table.

Edited July 25, 2022 by 'stache

[ChiTownDoc 21,139]

26 minutes ago, statsman said:

Or, the stick. UT and OU say that if you gouge us on the way out, we’re done playing you ever. (With OSU, we should never play in Pickens Stadium until they get full size sidelines, for player safety, anyways). 
 

And it’s possible that Texas and OU have no intention of ever playing those teams again. 

Yes exactly.  Maybe to completely kill off recruiting and really turn okie state and the likes into the minor leagues you just wait it out then never play any of them ever again.  But there are ways to get out early if they really wanted to.  Makes me think the former may be the line of thinking.  

[notre dame joe 186]

3 hours ago, mdmost said:

Yeah but Northwestern is like the Stanford of the Midwest. Obvious Pac homer!

In one of Stanford's good years they played @NWU and lost, something like 7-6 at noon eastern time. 

[ButtFumble 5,164]

50 minutes ago, ChiTownDoc said:

Boy, it sure looks like OU and UT were bringing a whole lot to the rest of the big12.  Why not tell OU and UT to guarantee 2 games vs 12 teams for the next decade or so and let them out early.  It makes all the sense in the world.  Their next television contract would be worth a lot more and OU/UT get to bail and not have these deadbeat seasons.  OU can oblige Gundy's dumbass and dump bedlam or even better the conference can tell Gundy to go fuck himself and force it down his throat. 

 

I am of the opinion that the Big 12 is in the terrible position where even if they wanted to let Texas and OU go early for say $20 million extra (the $80 million in exit fees that will probably be higher now and $20 more to let them out of the GOR hence Texas being said to have $100 million in hand to leave) the Big 12 cannot do that

the reason being I feel if the Big 12 was to negotiate an out to then GOR and worse yet for a "price" that pretty much sets a precedent in the future at least for the Big 12 that the GOR can be bought out of.....and setting the precedent that the GOR can be bought out of simply makes the GOR pretty much worthless for it's intended purpose and that is to simply prevent teams from leaving at all until the end of the GOR

I think if the Big 12 gave Texas and OU the "out" for $20 million for a year early exit or worse $20 million for a two year early exit from the GOR then any team looking to leave in the future if the Big 12 has a GOR can head to court and show where the Big 12 let Texas and OU leave for between $10 and $20 million per year left on the GOR

I am not sure a winning rebuttal to that is "well yea but I mean your honor we negotiated with them because well we were just tired of it all, but this time we do not want to negotiate we want THESE teams to have to stay".....I think the answer to that may well be "go negotiate you did it before you can do it again go do it"

[Hurtlocker 2,212]

7 hours ago, BurntOrange&White said:

What’s the context of that? Is it taken from all games or conference games? I’d be interested see conference games average  of both not including UCLA, USC, Texas, or Oklahoma. 

Ha, if its averages, the Big 12 has every game televised, so you get tons of 500ks in the shit games that Oregon doesn't have because they go to the PacN which isn't metered.

If they want to do that, look at a channel comparison, e.g. how did they do on ABC, Fox, ESPN, etc.

[ChiTownDoc 21,139]

2 minutes ago, ButtFumble said:

 

I am of the opinion that the Big 12 is in the terrible position where even if they wanted to let Texas and OU go early for say $20 million extra (the $80 million in exit fees that will probably be higher now and $20 more to let them out of the GOR hence Texas being said to have $100 million in hand to leave) the Big 12 cannot do that

the reason being I feel if the Big 12 was to negotiate an out to then GOR and worse yet for a "price" that pretty much sets a precedent in the future at least for the Big 12 that the GOR can be bought out of.....and setting the precedent that the GOR can be bought out of simply makes the GOR pretty much worthless for it's intended purpose and that is to simply prevent teams from leaving at all until the end of the GOR

I think if the Big 12 gave Texas and OU the "out" for $20 million for a year early exit or worse $20 million for a two year early exit from the GOR then any team looking to leave in the future if the Big 12 has a GOR can head to court and show where the Big 12 let Texas and OU leave for between $10 and $20 million per year left on the GOR

I am not sure a winning rebuttal to that is "well yea but I mean your honor we negotiated with them because well we were just tired of it all, but this time we do not want to negotiate we want THESE teams to have to stay".....I think the answer to that may well be "go negotiate you did it before you can do it again go do it"

Counterpoint: your honor OU and Texas had X dollars of value and KSU?  The GOR is a damn contract.  You think because a company negotiates out of one contract, that same company has to worry about all their contracts being worthless?  Lol

[Al_4_ISU 12,447]

1 hour ago, statsman said:

Or, the stick. UT and OU say that if you gouge us on the way out, we’re done playing you ever. (With OSU, we should never play in Pickens Stadium until they get full size sidelines, for player safety, anyways). 
 

And it’s possible that Texas and OU have no intention of ever playing those teams again. 

I've always assumed this.

If they want to keep playing these teams, they would have stayed.

[derpyhorndog 2,557]

22 minutes ago, ButtFumble said:

I am not sure a winning rebuttal to that is "well yea but I mean your honor we negotiated with them because well we were just tired of it all, but this time we do not want to negotiate we want THESE teams to have to stay".....I think the answer to that may well be "go negotiate you did it before you can do it again go do it"

That's not really how freedom of contract works.

Just because parties are able to successfully renegotiate a contract does not mean that the similarly situated parties are obligated to do so in the future.

[GTX Horn 1,707]

19 hours ago, BornAndRaised said:

This dude called the USC/UCLA move back in April, and is now saying Big12 is waiting for t1 B10 rights to drop before B12 makes a move. Looks like they're trying to add Cal, Stanford, Arizona and Colorado.
 

read the whole thread he posted.

That clown didn’t call shit. He threw shit against the wall and it stuck for once. Just for reference, he claimed last year that the Texas Legislature would block us going to the SEC and then when the Big 12 was on shaky ground before they added at AAC teams and BYU, he claimed West Virginia was having discussions with the B1G and that the conference was really impressed with the academic progress WVU had made (LOL). He’s an idiot just like Geoff Swaim or whoever that Okie State realignment clown is.

[Gidnik 3,268]

 

[LTbear 4,168]

4 minutes ago, GTX Horn said:

That clown didn’t call shit. He threw shit against the wall and it stuck for once. Just for reference, he claimed last year that the Texas Legislature would block us going to the SEC and then when the Big 12 was on shaky ground before they added at AAC teams and BYU, he claimed West Virginia was having discussions with the B1G and that the conference was really impressed with the academic progress WVU had made (LOL). He’s an idiot just like Geoff Swaim or whoever that Okie State realignment clown is.

[ButtFumble 5,164]

3 minutes ago, derpyhorndog said:

That's not really how freedom of contract works.

Just because parties are able to successfully renegotiate a contract does not mean that the similarly situated parties are obligated to do so in the future.

but as of now one of the most valuable aspects of the GOR is that no one has ever tried to break such a contract that does not have any real means to exit it through negotiation

moving to a place where one has been negotiated in the past to me makes it more likely the same will happen in the future

if the ACC was to let ND leave for $42 million (in addition to any exit fees ND might owe) well that may well be worth it to ND, but that only gets the other 14 members $3 million each.....and while ChiTown used KSU as an example in the ACC with 14 years left well suddenly UNC, UVA, FSU, Clemson, and Miami might want to hit the door as well for $42 million on top of exit fees

what would make a court tell the ACC they can continue to enforce it against those other members even though they just let ND leave

most contracts have parts in them that deals with leaving the contract, not fulfilling the contract ect.......the GORs do not and that is for a reason and that reason is uncertainty...negotiating out of it introduces some chance of certainty IMO 

people like to use the "it is a contract they can all be broken" argument...but that does not mean breaking one works in your favor....once you start to introduce aspects that favor those that might want to break a contract with you then you are making it harder on yourself to enforce one

if the GOR was "just a contract they can all be broken" I am fairly certain that Texas and OU would be in court now and UNC and some in the ACC would be about to head to court

[closetohumping 17,432]

1 hour ago, statsman said:

Or, the stick. UT and OU say that if you gouge us on the way out, we’re done playing you ever. (With OSU, we should never play in Pickens Stadium until they get full size sidelines, for player safety, anyways). 
 

And it’s possible that Texas and OU have no intention of ever playing those teams again. 

Didn't we agree upon a 73 year deal with Tech?

[ButtFumble 5,164]

11 minutes ago, Gidnik said:

 

with a 12 year contract averaging $20.8 million now the PAC 12 is probably getting $26 million or so in their final year......so if $24.5 is an average it would really depend on how long of a contract it is, but they could be starting out at $22 or so for the first year if it is a 6 year contract......if it is a longer term contract then they could be starting out close to where they started out 12 years ago if not worse which would be about a $10+ million hit from last year of old to first year of new

[Texas Wahoo 3,389]

 

[LTtxfan 49,141]

[closetohumping 17,432]

12 minutes ago, Texas Wahoo said:

 

Damn, Mack Brown North Carolina Football is slumming it.

[thunderlounge 7,813]

16 minutes ago, Texas Wahoo said:

 

[Gidnik 3,268]

[derpyhorndog 2,557]

41 minutes ago, ButtFumble said:

but as of now one of the most valuable aspects of the GOR is that no one has ever tried to break such a contract that does not have any real means to exit it through negotiation

moving to a place where one has been negotiated in the past to me makes it more likely the same will happen in the future

if the ACC was to let ND leave for $42 million (in addition to any exit fees ND might owe) well that may well be worth it to ND, but that only gets the other 14 members $3 million each.....and while ChiTown used KSU as an example in the ACC with 14 years left well suddenly UNC, UVA, FSU, Clemson, and Miami might want to hit the door as well for $42 million on top of exit fees

what would make a court tell the ACC they can continue to enforce it against those other members even though they just let ND leave

most contracts have parts in them that deals with leaving the contract, not fulfilling the contract ect.......the GORs do not and that is for a reason and that reason is uncertainty...negotiating out of it introduces some chance of certainty IMO 

people like to use the "it is a contract they can all be broken" argument...but that does not mean breaking one works in your favor....once you start to introduce aspects that favor those that might want to break a contract with you then you are making it harder on yourself to enforce one

if the GOR was "just a contract they can all be broken" I am fairly certain that Texas and OU would be in court now and UNC and some in the ACC would be about to head to court

Parties to a contract have the freedom to renegotiate as they see fit. The requisite members of any given conference agreeing to let a member out is not technically "breaking" the contract in the sense that a departing member is not leaving in blatant violation of GOR and saying "sue me" (the exit is done with approval of the remaining members), and the GOR isn't torn up (it is continues to apply unaltered to the remaining members). And it's not an implicit agreement that the remaining members will give (or are obligated to give) the same deal to anyone else that wants to leave in the future.

Won't derail the thread by continuing to harp on this subject, so will just agree to disagree with how we view these things. And corporate law is my 9-5, FWIW. 

[clapclapclap 9,000]

1 hour ago, Gidnik said:

 

Hi, all of the Jason Scheer energy has been towards raising Arizona into the B12.  Abandon the left coast and turn to the right.  But does he really have sources, or is he just another crook with a panty on his head?  

[Gidnik 3,268]

6 minutes ago, clapclapclap said:

Hi, all of the Jason Scheer energy has been towards raising Arizona into the B12.  Abandon the left coast and turn to the right.  But does he really have sources, or is he just another crook with a panty on his head?  

the reddit says hes connected to the AZ athletic director. fuck if i know tho. 

[demos 3,002]

 

[demos 3,002]

Anyone done a welfare check on Mandel?

[JFKFC 4,878]

2 minutes ago, demos said:

Anyone done a welfare check on Mandel?

Mandel insists the 24.5 number is incorrect. It would be $245,000,000 per Pac 12 team because everyone loves watching Oregon St vs Wazzu at midnight.

[Al_4_ISU 12,447]

I would think Pac 12 CCG being on a Friday night versus Big 12 being on Saturday with all the other CCGs would be a little bit of a factor in that disparity. Plus, the Pac CCG was out of the playoff hunt. oSu still had a shot if Alabama had lost the SEC game. Not the entire factor but a factor.

The Pac game had zero competition. And your point about playoff contention is absolutely a pro Big 12 one.

[Dirk X West 772]

3 minutes ago, Al_4_ISU said:

The Pac game had zero competition. And your point about playoff contention is absolutely a pro Big 12 one.

Yeah, I'm not getting that one as a pro Pac 12 talking point. "Our championship game was lower rated because our best two teams weren't very good."

[mdmost 42,997]

1 minute ago, Al_4_ISU said:

The Pac game had zero competition. And your point about playoff contention is absolutely a pro Big 12 one.

It was also a Friday night when no one watches college football versus an entire day where everyone does. 

Oregon and Washington have both been in the playoff. Utah was oSu one year, on the cusp. Don't act like the Pac hasn't gone to the playoff. Not recently but no one outside of OU has recently in the Big 12 either. 

[mdmost 42,997]

Just now, Dirk X West said:

Yeah, I'm not getting that one as a pro Pac 12 talking point. "Our championship game was lower rated because our best two teams weren't very good."

It's not a pro Pac 12 talking point, at least not by me. It's a reason why the game was lower rated. Friday night, no say in the playoff race. 

[Sandbagging Steve 982]

So some rando on Twitter proves to have better info on the subject than several of the most well known media members in college football. Why am I not surprised? Media has turned into complete trash. Sports, politics, you name it. These dudes get paid to be lazy, uninformed puppets of their sources.

[clapclapclap 9,000]

1 hour ago, thunderlounge said:

North Carolina at #33 out of 36, just ahead of Kansas.  You can see why no conference wants the Tar Heels.

[Upgrayedd 5,810]

6 minutes ago, clapclapclap said:

North Carolina at #33 out of 36, just ahead of Kansas.  You can see why no conference wants the Tar Heels.

Louisville is #3?  Louisville?

[Dirk X West 772]

15 minutes ago, mdmost said:

It's not a pro Pac 12 talking point, at least not by me. It's a reason why the game was lower rated. Friday night, no say in the playoff race. 

Sorry - not a talking point but rather an excuse.

[bullet 1,596]

Wilner seems to be echoing my thoughts and confirming Scheer's 24.5 million.

 

 

 

 

[bullet 1,596]

Posted before I realized more than just the top tweet was included.  Was pointing out him suggesting ESPN would lowball and everyone was waiting on ND.

[Sandbagging Steve 982]

13 minutes ago, clapclapclap said:

North Carolina at #33 out of 36, just ahead of Kansas.  You can see why no conference wants the Tar Heels.

It's hard to draw your fanbase with 4 losing seasons in that stretch. They have potential to be better than that. They bring a new television market to the SEC/B1G and they are one of the most successful basketball programs of all time. They also have good facilities. Markets do in fact matter for the Power 2. It not only increases prices in local markets but it adds inventory across the country to eventually charge a higher set price across the board. This helps with streaming services down road. It also draws in more new fans from a new area to watch (more invested) conference games that does not include their team. If North Carolina is in the SEC, more eyeballs in the state of North Carolina are going to be more interested in following Alabama, LSU and Texas and less interested in other members of the ACC that are not in the SEC.

If Kansas football showed any potential in markets, facilities and competitiveness, their basketball would move them up the ladder. Unfortunately, they have very little potential at this time. They can't seem to turn the program around and there doesn't seem to be any light at the end of the tunnel. They play in a stadium that Allen High would hold their nose at and their market is small.

There's a huge list of schools with very little separation when taking viewership at face value. The small things add up. It's about what the value is to the new conference, not what the value is right now.

[Deej 76,750]

29 minutes ago, Sandbagging Steve said:

So some rando on Twitter proves to have better info on the subject than several of the most well known media members in college football. Why am I not surprised? Media has turned into complete trash. Sports, politics, you name it. These dudes get paid to be lazy, uninformed puppets of their sources.

Yep. Just pushing their agendas instead of reporting. 

[Deej 76,750]

2 minutes ago, Sandbagging Steve said:

They play in a stadium that Allen High would hold their nose at

It's not in danger of collapsing from aggy engineering?

[Sandbagging Steve 982]

2 hours ago, thunderlounge said:

It would be nice if there was a way to take this data and make it work since the beginning of ESPN 2 and FSN broadcasting all the college football games. If you could then somehow take into account the size of the fanbase played against and the overall record of both teams at the time they played. If you could then add a curve to include a team's success over the past 60 years or so in order to attempt to predict possible future TV viewership under equal circumstances. I'm sure the television networks have all this and much more. 

With that said, this is the best data I've seen so far that is open for public view. When it is all said and done, we don't need any of these stats being posted the past month to know who has the bigger fanbases or which teams bring the most value to what conferences. You can take the list I posted a few weeks ago, or someone else's list of top programs, and make some slight adjustments. At the end of the day, diehards know who the most valued teams are, even if one team's numbers aren't currently where they should be and some other program is outperforming their long term potential.

I think Oregon and Washington would already be takes for one of the Big 2, if their geographical footprint was in the state of Colorado than way up in the far northwest corner. B1G wouldn't risk waiting for ND because there would be a higher likelihood that the SEC may snag them under that scenario.

There's also the possibility the B1G could be pausing and waiting for any potential issues with the newest additions before moving forward with another move. Any stupid lawsuits they must defend and who knows what else. And I know as much as they want to be THE conference, they don't want the perception out there that they killed the current  model. It's kind of silly, as they've always been the conference that wants to swallow the rest of the college football under their power.

SEC has extra spending capacity with the addition of Texas that the B1G won't get until it adds Notre Dame. In other words, Texas brings a few million bucks per team in additional revenue that can be spent to add other solid programs. In fact, with the large number of big schools in the SEC, the addition of Texas and OU may, long term, bring way more value than just a few million. It adds a lot of big fanbase vs big fanbase games across the board. It's a testament to not only Texas/OU, but the balance of large fanbases in the SEC.

The B1G has more juggernaut fanbases but then the bottom 40% of that conference is weak. The bottom 40% hurts the bottom line. IMO, they are trying to make up for this with markets.  Flagship programs with large state populations and good academics. This will not only help boost prices in local markets, but build enough inventory to be a channel that can stand on its own in the streaming world.

Big 12 would be wise to take any team that brings close to equal value of the current Big 12 while bringing a competitive program and a new market. Get as many new markets as possible that don't hurt the bottom line. The Big 12's biggest advantage is stability and location. They offer a CST that could benefit from expansion on either coast. For a conference like the Big 12, or the long term winner of conference #3, a balance of different strengths to cover up some weaknesses can go a long way. More markets and more teams leads to more eyeballs invested in all the conference games. The additions also give a network more inventory to find a Tier 1 game worthy of a good time slot. If you bumped up your conference games to 10 or 11 games per year, you add even more good inventory. Then there's the possibility of a small conference network, if you get to 20 to 22 teams of solid programs from coast to coast.

[bullet 1,596]

As I pointed out, that list doesn't pass the smell test.  They deleted too many games.  For obvious reasons, they deleted the mirror games.  But they also deleted games vs. Big 10, SEC and ND.  That gives you less of an idea how they do in bigger games.  

You've got to be on drugs if you think Louisville is #3 or the North Carolina is ahead of only KU, UH and UCF.

[Hagbard Celine 10,848]

11 hours ago, Al_4_ISU said:

Stewart Mandel's numbers are really slanted to make the Pac 12 look better.  He's a Pac homer.  There's a reason nearly everyone has estimated the Big 12's share to be a fair bit larger than the Pac's, outside of Pac 12 homers.

I stopped reading when he had Washington State at #3.

[Hagbard Celine 10,848]

11 hours ago, Huckleberry said:

That analysis really is garbage. You'd need to control for opponents better than that as well as network and time slot. It wouldn't be easy and the sample size would hurt. 

For example, Stanford is helped because they play Notre Dame every year. 

i really want to see the numbers for every game with dates, times and the network

the pac network is available on.... (quick google)...    fubo, sling or their app

every game on the pac network would have to be balanced out by games drawing 3 million+ to reach the numbers cited

[Sandbagging Steve 982]

20 minutes ago, bullet said:

As I pointed out, that list doesn't pass the smell test.  They deleted too many games.  For obvious reasons, they deleted the mirror games.  But they also deleted games vs. Big 10, SEC and ND.  That gives you less of an idea how they do in bigger games.  

You've got to be on drugs if you think Louisville is #3 or the North Carolina is ahead of only KU, UH and UCF.

This is where you need TV numbers from the beginning of full cable viewership and other stats that give a clearer view of real program power.

The reason Louisville is so high is because it includes 3 years of Lamar Jackson and 3 years before Lamar that went: 11-2, 12-1, 9-4. Meanwhile, North Carolina had 4 losing seasons in that stretch. With that said, Louisville football does have some support. It's a little bit of a sleeper, but it's not that high on any long term, well researched list.

The TV data being thrown around is just too incomplete on many levels. It's much more complicated and you can't take them at face value. With that said, this guy made the best attempt at trying to be unbiased and he's not getting paid for it. The media that gets paid to this sort of research is more concerned with churning out as many crap articles as possible and kissing their sources ass. They don't care about diving into the numbers and spending a week crunching real data. And the corporate bosses encourage this kind of lazy setup. A journalist today spends most of his time reading and watching sports/his industry for fun, kissing up to sources that fit their bosses agenda and going on vacation; maybe sleeping in after partying all night with other's in the industry. That's the vibe, anyway. 

[BurntOrange&White 39,930]

59 minutes ago, bullet said:

As I pointed out, that list doesn't pass the smell test.  They deleted too many games.  For obvious reasons, they deleted the mirror games.  But they also deleted games vs. Big 10, SEC and ND.  That gives you less of an idea how they do in bigger games.  

You've got to be on drugs if you think Louisville is #3 or the North Carolina is ahead of only KU, UH and UCF.

Wouldn’t that give you the accurate data needed to see how they do on average?