Realignment talk not going away

[Sandbagging Steve 982]

11 minutes ago, Vermin said:

A 17-game season is ludicrous. How could the calendar even support that without bumping heads with the NFL playoffs?

How is the NCAA going to argue in court that football is the same as intramural ultimate frisbee?

It's over and they know it. Kids are going to be paid at some point soon.

We don't need 2, 3 and 4 week gaps between games in December.

[billfromlaketravis 11,537]

25 minutes ago, clapclapclap said:

No paywall, but let's highlight the nuggets, because they appear to be, uh, big:

The schools being considered by the Big Ten, sources told Action Network, are Notre Dame, Oregon, Washington, Stanford, Cal, Miami and Florida State.

Hmmm, might imply that UNC and UVA have decided to go SEC?  If that's the case, the Clem and FSU are probably the SEC's other targets.  I'd guess Miami is the backup plan for the B1G if FSU can't be lured.  And probably the caveat that the B1G might end up adding 1 or more schools not named above, for various reasons, to complete their expansion. 

That said, the B12 probably would play a big part of the B1G and SEC expansion strategies regarding getting the desired ACC schools out.  Having a landing spot (albeit lower $$$) for most, maybe even all, of the ACC left behinds would be a key argument in trying to reduce the GOR/exit costs.  B12 might offer to take in all the ACC leftovers if ESPN converts the ACCNet into a B12+A+P channel.  Still not good news for OR St and WA St.

Warren said...being an AAU member is not a requirement for a potential future member.

Finally we can put to bed that message boards realignment paint by numbers canard.

 

...“Literally every Power Five conference school not in the SEC has reached out to the Big Ten”...

...“It could be two months to two years,” another source said. “There could be an odd number, and there are not any specific number of teams”...

...Since the announcement of USC and UCLA to the Big Ten on June 30, Warren said he has not spoken with Pac-12 commissioner George Kliavkoff...

,,,Warren said he has developed a close relationship with new Big 12 commissioner Brett Yormark.,,

...Could the Rose Bowl actually pivot in the future to a Big Ten-Big 12 matchup?...

Warren said he doesn't know how many power conferences we end up with.  Meanwhile, a Big Ten coach suggests that it will end up an B1G and SEC only world and playoff, which implies Warren would just use the B12 and then stab then in the back alliance style.  Again, I think that would tick off too many important political bases to pull off. 

  

...Warren said he is 100% supportive of an expanded playoff but favors automatic bids to Power Five conference champions.

“There should be some difference for conferences who win their conference championships,” Warren said. “There has to be a reward for winning the conference...

...Warren added with an expanded playoff, whether it’s eight, 12 or 16 teams, that “I don’t ever want to get to the point where a committee chose (all the teams) that go to the College Football Playoff...”

...“Greg and I were both trained well by (former SEC commissioner) Mike Slive (Slive hired Warren out of Notre Dame law school). I know Greg’s head fakes....”

 

The Big 12 right now:

[thunderlounge 7,953]

22 minutes ago, demos said:

If they wouldn’t take ou, I don’t see them taking fsu or miami. He’s just stirring the pot.

Of course he is. And it’s not like they would reveal their real targets, other than the already painfully obvious (nd) ones.

So definitely stirring the pot. Which means shits happening somewhere, else why bother fanning the flames. 

[Sandbagging Steve 982]

Can anyone explain to me why Brett McMurphy was fired at ESPN? Of all the blowhards that work there, they fired him? He seems to be a no nonsense, just do my job and get out of the way kind of reporter. I guess that isn't valued anymore.

[billfromlaketravis 11,537]

So if Warren is FOX’s talking head, FOX is going to bid/win the Big 12’s media rights, correct? 

[closetohumping 17,476]

33 minutes ago, Sandbagging Steve said:

Can anyone explain to me why Brett McMurphy was fired at ESPN? Of all the blowhards that work there, they fired him? He seems to be a no nonsense, just do my job and get out of the way kind of reporter. I guess that isn't valued anymore.

They also fired John Clayton.  Rip

[hawkfan 60]

2 hours ago, LTbear said:

 

 

 

I have a feeling this is giving ND the cover to make the decision.

If the B1G goes scorched earth on the ACC, ND has no real choice left but to pick the B1G or SEC, and I imagine Warren realizes the B1G would be in a strong position to win that lotto with most of ND's historic rivals AND both CA/FL in the footprint.

[TKthunder2 4,998]

1 hour ago, closetohumping said:

I’d imagine the big would prefer unc/uva over fsu. But, Florida market is coveted.  They get Miami and fsu they would own Florida.  Checkmate

Yep that smells like a deal between the SEC and B1G.  You can have FSU/Miami but you have to stay away from UNC/UVA/Clemson.

1 hour ago, demos said:

If they wouldn’t take ou, I don’t see them taking fsu or miami. He’s just stirring the pot.

I know it’s flawed but FSU and Miami are just outside the top 50 and ahead of half B1G universities (MD, Rutgers, Pedo, IU, Minn, MSU, UI, Iowa) in USNWR rankings. Oklahoma is 125.

[Satchel 6,949]

4 minutes ago, TKthunder2 said:

Yep that smells like a deal between the SEC and B1G.  You can have FSU/Miami but you have to stay away from UNC/UVA/Clemson.

I know it’s flawed but FSU and Miami are just outside the top 50 and ahead of half B1G universities (MD, Rutgers, Pedo, IU, Minn, MSU, UI, Iowa) in USNWR rankings. Oklahoma is 125.

If they use USN&WR, those rankings shouldn’t mean much.

[MAUFRAIS 6,642]

If unc and virginia go big 10 we are definitely in the retard class.

[clapclapclap 9,000]

Chip of Brown says he heard the $24.5 ESPN Pac offer was for a short term deal, they also offered $32 mil for 12-years (2036), and would result in a joint Pac-ACCNet.   

[Sandbagging Steve 982]

57 minutes ago, closetohumping said:

They also fired John Clayton.  Rip

I didn't know he was fired, or don't remember it.

One of the best in the business. RIP

[Okie State 3,848]

 
That's a weird thing to bring up as a response to him bringing that up.
None of us have much to do with any of this shit. If we did, we'd probably be doing that rather than posting on message boards pretending like our opinions have any value whatsoever. 

I'm not the one holding grudges against entire schools and hoping they fuck off into obscurity because their coach voted in a way I didn't like that one time a long time ago. But yeah, agreed 100% that none of our opinions really mean anything.

[Hurtlocker 2,213]

3 hours ago, demos said:

If they wouldn’t take ou, I don’t see them taking fsu or miami. He’s just stirring the pot.

This is definitely what is happening, as mentioned earlier this is a game between Fox and ESPN.   All of the properties listed, outside ND, are ESPN properties as Pac after Dark is only on ESPN.    The Big Ten is likely done with ESPN so keep stirring to keep everyone on edge until the deal is done.

Once the Big Ten deal is done, unless ND changes their mind in 2025, I can't see them expanding.   USC/UCLA come in as full members because they're at the beginning of a contract.   If someone comes in a year after the contract, they're junior members until the next deal unless there is a carve out.   And if there was a carve out for the Pac schools, they'd already be on board.  The only carve out is for ND and a travel partner or two.

ND + Stanford + UW + Miami goes go 20 and provides the BTN roughly 6.3+m new homes (also known as $150m/year for BTN alone), own California, have a stake in Florida, and also have the biggest brand in the sport.   It gives ND games against Michigan, OSU, Michigan State, Purdue, USC, Stanford and Catholics vs Convicts.

Edited July 27, 2022 by Hurtlocker
spelz bad

[statsman 5,486]

4 hours ago, SL Xpress said:

 

That's a weird thing to bring up as a response to him bringing that up.

None of us have much to do with any of this shit. If we did, we'd probably be doing that rather than posting on message boards pretending like our opinions have any value whatsoever. 

We were talking about … collegiality. We were talking about conference unity. It’s a two way street. UT has a lot of natural advantages that has helped build the program over the years. When it counted, OSU (still coached by Gundy, as in 2008), TT and BU showed that they saw it as their best interests to keep UT from adding another NC. They put their finger on the scale to keep that from happening (so did the Ags, but we expect that from them). 
Did you know the SEC has rules against internecine bickering? 
Our opinions don’t matter, but Bellmont’s does, and Bellmont seems to have an institutional memory (if Texas is in the B12 in 2023, don’t be surprised by any extreme moves by UT to stop a game with UH from being scheduled). It’s no coincidence that the LHN was rolled out soon after the 2008 vote. We were good members of the B12 conference and all we needed was for the rival coaches to simply vote their conscience and they wouldn’t do it. That told us everything we needed to know about the Big XII. 

[clapclapclap 9,000]

11 hours ago, bullet said:

Brett McMurphy is quoting Warren as saying they will be in 4 time zones in 2024.  Colorado or the Arizona schools???

Part of Nebraska is in the mountain time zone.

[SL Xpress 7,518]

1 hour ago, Okie State said:

 

 

I'm not the one holding grudges against entire schools and hoping they fuck off into obscurity because their coach voted in a way I didn't like that one time a long time ago. But yeah, agreed 100% that none of our opinions really mean anything.

 

I don't get it. You're on a Texas board. Of course you're going to encounter all kinds of strange shit very specific to UT. You don't hold grudges over weird shit? What kind of outlier sports fan are you? It's amazing all the grudges I hold over stupid shit. To me it creates a rooting interest and helps me get more invested. Why get into sports if you're not going to do that?

[MAUFRAIS 6,642]

I saw a guy intentionally beanball in the losing run with the bases loaded in R.B.I. Baseball because the guy stiffed him for an autograph at the Astrodome and he swore he’d bean him in video games for the rest of his life.

[bullet 1,599]

4 hours ago, Sandbagging Steve said:

Can anyone explain to me why Brett McMurphy was fired at ESPN? Of all the blowhards that work there, they fired him? He seems to be a no nonsense, just do my job and get out of the way kind of reporter. I guess that isn't valued anymore.

Ya think?

[SL Xpress 7,518]

58 minutes ago, statsman said:

We were talking about … collegiality. We were talking about conference unity. It’s a two way street. UT has a lot of natural advantages that has helped build the program over the years. When it counted, OSU (still coached by Gundy, as in 2008), TT and BU showed that they saw it as their best interests to keep UT from adding another NC. They put their finger on the scale to keep that from happening (so did the Ags, but we expect that from them). 
Did you know the SEC has rules against internecine bickering? 
Our opinions don’t matter, but Bellmont’s does, and Bellmont seems to have an institutional memory (if Texas is in the B12 in 2023, don’t be surprised by any extreme moves by UT to stop a game with UH from being scheduled). It’s no coincidence that the LHN was rolled out soon after the 2008 vote. We were good members of the B12 conference and all we needed was for the rival coaches to simply vote their conscience and they wouldn’t do it. That told us everything we needed to know about the Big XII. 

 

I don't have a problem with what you posted. My reply was to him for taking issue with it.

I will say this "we're so innocent if only the other programs had supported us things would be so much different" doesn't fly with me. Deloss Dodds had been working to get the LHN established for years. The biggest reason for the timing of the rollout is because ESPN became scared they might lose Texas to the PAC and Fox and so in part to make sure that didn't happen they gave Texas an offer they couldn't refuse in the form of a $300 million no risk offer to take over production for the LHN. It was a bit of a double edged sword, though, because Texas no longer had any control over distribution, and ESPN completely screwed the pooch on that one, because frankly getting LHN on various distribution platforms wasn't a priority. Keeping them within the ESPN fold was, and that had already been accomplished. 

I don't care if the people at OSU, Texas Tech, and Baylor collectively took turns committing fellatio while proclaiming in the polls and in public how amazing UT was as an institution and how grateful they were to simply be in its presence, Texas was still accepting that no risk $300m deal from ESPN. 

Texas is out for number one, and they should be. Other programs are going to respond the way they're going to respond. If you hold a grudge over OSU for the petty move by Gundy back in 2008, I do not blame you one bit. But let's not pretend it actually alters UT's behavior towards the other schools, because it doesn't. Texas isn't buddy buddy with the OU admins because they're always so gracious and supportive of UT in every endeavor. It's because we have common interests and an aligned vision of where college athletics is going to go and how we want to take part in that. If Gundy was at a school that wins national championships in football on the regular and averages 100k fans a game, Texas would be trying to work hand in hand with them, too. But he doesn't, so we won't. 

As far as UH, I'm all for shoving it up their poop shoot any time we get a chance. That said, I don't think Texas is getting out of a game with them. I'm just hoping it will be in Austin rather than their piece of shit stadium in Houston. But it's not like the other Big 12 programs are looking to do us any favors right now. I'm still extremely bitter about what transpired in 2001. UH played dirty pool, and even to this day as an institution they act like they didn't do anything all that wrong, and Texas is just being petty. It was either take them to court for breach of contract, or just simply don't schedule them ever again. I wish we still weren't scheduling them in other sports, but we are. 

All I need to know about the Big 12 is that it's a lot of small market teams that are in hard to reach places at schools that are not the flagship of their underpopulated states. If I could sub out Oklahoma State or Iowa State for Mississippi State in the SEC I would, because I'm not excited about those mouth breathers and their fucking cow bells, either (although I love me some Mike Leach). Fucking Starkville. But outside of Mississippi State, there's not another program in the SEC that I wouldn't rather play than the programs in the Big 12. Well, I'm pretty indifferent about Missouri, but I love me some walnut bowls, so there's that. 

[bullet 1,599]

Texas turned down the Pac 16 in June 2010.  LHN deal was still expected to be Fox for about $3 million in October 2010.  It was then that ESPN came up with their big LHN deal, thinking they could get Texas HS football.  LHN was not a factor in the Pac 16 decision.  Fox and ESPN promising to pay a lot more to the Big 12 in their next contract was.

[Vermin 3,061]

41 minutes ago, bullet said:

Texas turned down the Pac 16 in June 2010.  LHN deal was still expected to be Fox for about $3 million in October 2010.  It was then that ESPN came up with their big LHN deal, thinking they could get Texas HS football.  LHN was not a factor in the Pac 16 decision.  Fox and ESPN promising to pay a lot more to the Big 12 in their next contract was.

Thank goodness that didn't happen. I don't want our athletes spending their college years in the air to Washington State.

Man, DeLoss Dodds sure was a moron—11th hour TV negotiations to save the conference doesn't scream long term viability. He didn't see cord cutting, players getting paid, and the coming dominance of the SEC and B1G. CDC has fixed his fuck up luckily.

Edited July 27, 2022 by Vermin

[Gidnik 3,285]

9 hours ago, clapclapclap said:

Chip of Brown says he heard the $24.5 ESPN Pac offer was for a short term deal, they also offered $32 mil for 12-years (2036), and would result in a joint Pac-ACCNet.   

Chip getting his info from that mhver3?

 

[JFKFC 4,893]

Big 12 looks rock solid to me.

 

 

[Longboard Horn 40,544]

FUCK IT. At this point, since all the power conferences are expanding let's play a 14 regular game season. 

[ouflak 60]

16 hours ago, Sandman said:

I agree. As an OSU fan, what more were we supposed to do? We got a BMD to pour in cash. We hired good coaches. We haven't had a losing season in 15 years, won a coference title and played for several more. We're in the top 10-12 in wins over the last decade.  And for that, we're called a leech? I feel like we did our part.

Did your fans and alumni come out to games in big numbers and watch on TV and online in the multi-millions per game? You may have 'done everything right', but some things just can't be managed. They just have to happen. There is a bigger picture.

[DFW Horn 6,224]

6 hours ago, Vermin said:

Thank goodness that didn't happen. I don't want our athletes spending their college years in the air to Washington State.

Man, DeLoss Dodds sure was a moron—11th hour TV negotiations to save the conference doesn't scream long term viability. He didn't see cord cutting, players getting paid, and the coming dominance of the SEC and B1G. CDC has fixed his fuck up luckily.

CDC is a glad-hander and fundraiser, first and foremost.

DeLoss was pretty good at that, too, before he crested the hill. Dodds would've had us in the SEC along with Arkansas back in 1991 if not for Texas politics at the time. I find it amusing that you think he should've foreseen the monumental changes occurring now since he hasn't been around for almost a decade.

[DFW Horn 6,224]

2 minutes ago, Longboard Horn said:

FUCK IT. At this point, since all the power conferences are expanding let's play a 14 regular game season. 

Yes!

Let's skip Premier Worldwide altogether and go directly to NFL Lite.

[closetohumping 17,476]

25 minutes ago, ouflak said:

Did your fans and alumni come out to games in big numbers and watch on TV and online in the multi-millions per game? You may have 'done everything right', but some things just can't be managed. They just have to happen. There is a bigger picture.

Yes this isn’t a “hey we try hard, we put in OT, we do extra shit in the office and go to church”.  This is about money and yep osu probably iss more desirable than msu, but nobody is going to get booted from a conference.  Yet

[DFW Horn 6,224]

 

[closetohumping 17,476]

39 minutes ago, DFW Horn said:

 

Oregon/Utah week 11 match up out drew the championship game two weeks later.  Too close together imo.

[Js1 85,602]

10 minutes ago, closetohumping said:

Oregon/Utah week 11 match up out drew the championship game two weeks later.  Too close together imo.

First game was on a Saturday. 

[Eugene11 379]

All but 3 of those include Oregon.  And the three that don’t are the last three on that list as far as high numbers go.  Seems like Oregon is the bell cow now and probably by a lot. 

[billfromlaketravis 11,537]

21 minutes ago, Eugene11 said:

All but 3 of those include Oregon.  And the three that don’t are the last three on that list as far as high numbers go.  Seems like Oregon is the bell cow now and probably by a lot. 

Username checks out. 

[Vertigo 20,336]

51 minutes ago, Eugene11 said:

All but 3 of those include Oregon.  And the three that don’t are the last three on that list as far as high numbers go.  Seems like Oregon is the bell cow now and probably by a lot. 

They are, and Washington is a quality school when they are up. They are probably picking the worst possible time to be going through the Jimmy Lake stuff. But if Oregon stops winning, then their viewership will decline rapidly. They don't have the staying power of a Notre Dame or Texas if things get shitty. 

[LTtxfan 49,373]

 

[Gidnik 3,285]

yes stewart, it would. and that means the pac 12 is dead.

https://theathletic.com/3452169/2022/07/27/big-ten-realignment-mandels-mailbag/

[DanTheHorn 4,966]

5 minutes ago, LTtxfan said:

 

It is not good to have State at the end of your name unless you are Arizona State.

[closetohumping 17,476]

11 minutes ago, LTtxfan said:

 

Wow, really scrubbing the bottom of the barrel here.  Big 12 teams must've told Warren and Fox to fuck off.

[JFKFC 4,893]

8 minutes ago, Gidnik said:

yes stewart, it would. and that means the pac 12 is dead.

https://theathletic.com/3452169/2022/07/27/big-ten-realignment-mandels-mailbag/

The Big 12 is the more stable that the Pac 12 because they are the least desirable. I am sure there is analogy here to my love life and why I can't get laid. I'm now bathing regularly, manscaping and I'll be leaving the halfway house soon. If I can stay sober then maybe, just maybe, I'll wake up one morning covered in bitches.

[SimkinsMan 4,421]

31 minutes ago, Gidnik said:

yes stewart, it would. and that means the pac 12 is dead.

https://theathletic.com/3452169/2022/07/27/big-ten-realignment-mandels-mailbag/

Copypasta pls?

[closetohumping 17,476]

27 minutes ago, JFKFC said:

The Big 12 is the more stable that the Pac 12 because they are the least desirable. I am sure there is analogy here to my love life and why I can't get laid. I'm now bathing regularly, manscaping and I'll be leaving the halfway house soon. If I can stay sober then maybe, just maybe, I'll wake up one morning covered in bitches.

Or all of the Big 12 schools respect each other and are taking a united stand?  Looking at you, BYU, Cincy and WVA.

[Eugene11 379]

1 hour ago, billfromlaketravis said:

Username checks out. 

Actually in this case not at all.  Lol. Although I live in the Portland metro the Eugene in my name has to do with jeeps.  As in the alien Eugene that made a “Jeep Jeep” noise.   And my avatar.

And I’m no ducks fan. hell it’s hard to follow casually up here because you have to look real hard for any sort of info.  Like I’ve said in previous post on this thread.  It’s strange to me growing up in San Antonio and Austin with the media coverage Texas got. 

Edited July 27, 2022 by Eugene11

[Sir Ulrich 5,191]

If they are looking to add those 4 teams then I would assume ND told them no? 20 feels like the high end for number of teams for the big 2. After that its hard to see TV networks paying $100 million per school once they have gotten to 20. 

[nunna yo bizness 1,687]

53 minutes ago, Gidnik said:

yes stewart, it would. and that means the pac 12 is dead.

https://theathletic.com/3452169/2022/07/27/big-ten-realignment-mandels-mailbag/

Behind a paywall.  What's it say?

[DanTheHorn 4,966]

2 minutes ago, nunna yo bizness said:

Behind a paywall.  What's it say?

I don't know either but I will take a guess

[field 237]

5 minutes ago, nunna yo bizness said:

Behind a paywall.  What's it say?

Spoiler

Mandel’s Mailbag: Will Big Ten realignment end the Pac-12’s hold on the late-night TV slot?

I asked you guys this week whether you were ready to start pivoting to the actual season or wanted to keep talking realignment. Your answer was, overwhelmingly, MORE REALIGNMENT TALK.

Though I did slide one football-specific question in there.

(Note: Submitted questions have been lightly edited for length and clarity)

Why do conferences need to include all sports? Wouldn’t it make more sense for USC to be in the Big Ten for football to maximize revenue and to be in the Pac 12 conference for everything else in order to reduce travel/expenses?

Evan R.

Yes! It would! Say it louder for the people in the back!

Back when conferences were more traditionally geographical — say, circa 1995, when the Big East and Southwest Conference still existed — it made complete sense for all sports to be under one roof. It’s easier on travel, it helps bolster rivalries and relationships and it’s frankly just easier for an athletic department to deal with one conference.

But if college conferences are going to continue branching farther and farther out — in the case of the Big Ten, spanning 2,700 miles — then it’s an outdated model. Especially given these moves are being made entirely because of football. USC and UCLA are going to make considerably more money in the Big Ten than in the Pac-12, but the costs of running their other 20-plus sports are also going to increase because of it.

I do believe some sort of football-centric restructuring is coming. You’ve already seen figures like ACC commissioner Jim Phillips and Pac-12 commissioner George Kliavkoff suggest that FBS football should be operated independently of the NCAA, perhaps under the College Football Playoff umbrella. While that push is strictly about governance, a logical next step would be for the conferences themselves to similarly break off football into a separate entity. There would be both a Big Ten Football Conference and a Big Ten Athletics Conference, with the former helping fund the latter. Then you could reorganize the athletics conferences geographically.

But much like my Big 12-Pac-12 merger concept, this would require competing college leagues to work together collegially, which has not generally been their M.O.

Stewart, could you help me understand what really drives the Big Ten’s future money? I look at Rutgers, Maryland, Purdue, Indiana, Illinois, Northwestern, etc., as net neutral or negatives for viewing eyes and laugh at the idea these partners are worth $100 million to the networks. Do Ohio State and the upper tier of schools really lift that boat that much, or are we still pretending that the state university of New Jersey is magically bringing in the NYC market?

Michael, Salt Lake City, UT

An actual TV executive could explain this better than me, but I shall try.

For the reported $1 billion-a-year Tier 1 TV deal you’re referring to, it’s basically the top seven or so brands — Ohio State, Michigan, USC, Penn State, Nebraska, Michigan State and Wisconsin — driving the lion’s share of the value. (With Ohio State and Michigan on their own perch.) Those are the schools most likely to be playing in the big games that can get up into the 4 million-and-up viewership tier that the broadcast networks like Fox, ABC and CBS covet. They make a ton of advertising money off them, plus the more eyeballs those companies can draw to their broadcasts, the more they can charge TV providers and local affiliates in fees.

To get a sense of just how valuable one highly watched sporting event can be, consider that ESPN pays on average $80 million a year just for the rights to show the Rose Bowl, which last year drew 16.6 million people. Now consider that nearly as many (15.9 million) watched last year’s Ohio State-Michigan game on Fox. By no means is it an apples-to-apples comparison — for one thing, that Rose Bowl contract includes a CFP semifinal every three years — but for simplicity’s sake let’s say Ohio State-Michigan is worth around the same. If so, nearly 10 percent of Fox’s ROI on its Big Ten contract comes from just that one game.

As for the other schools, they, too have their own value — to the Big Ten Network, which Fox co-owns and which is separate from the larger contract. As of last year, BTN is in 48 million homes, and the monthly subscriber fee is higher in markets within the conference footprint. So that’s where Illinois/Northwestern (Chicago), Rutgers (New York/New Jersey), Maryland (Washington D.C./Baltimore), Minnesota (Minneapolis),  Indiana/Purdue (Indianapolis) and now UCLA (Los Angeles) come in handy.

And all of it of course is being funded by you, the consumer, in the form of that “broadcast TV fee” at the bottom of your cable or satellite bill (or unseen in your YouTube TV bill), which, we can already predict, will be going up yet again as soon as the networks’ costs go up when the new deal kicks in next year.

Stew, recently you suggested the Pac-12’s saving grace may be its ability to provide late night TV inventory (10 p.m. Eastern kickoff times). Now that Big Ten commissioner Kevin Warren is on record saying that with USC/UCLA, the Big Ten can regularly play in that time slot too, is the P12 doomed? USC in the Coliseum at night playing virtually anyone will be more attractive than almost any Pac-12 game.

TK, Portland, Ore.

It means the Pac-12 won’t have a monopoly on that time slot anymore. With BYU joining the Big 12, that conference could have some 10 p.m.-ish kickoffs as well. But unless either or both leagues add more schools on Pacific/Mountain Time, they’re not going to be able to fill that spot every week.

Fox didn’t push USC into the Big Ten to put its games at 10:30 p.m. ET. It wants the Trojans in that Big Noon window facing Ohio State, Michigan, etc. UCLA could be a more regular participant, but I can’t imagine the league making the Bruins play more than a couple of home games a year in that slot. And if they care even a little bit about the athletes’ welfare (unclear), I can’t see them making the East Coast teams play those games, having to either fly back overnight or taking a big chunk out of their supposed rest day on Sunday.

(It would also be a real jerk move to make Penn State fans stay up until 2:30 a.m. to watch their team play, but I suspect that’s very low on the list of considerations.)

But without knowing any specifics yet, Warren’s comment gives us a little hint about that new deal. We know Fox is going to retain the majority of the inventory. To this point it has not dabbled much in that late-night window on big Fox. So is the Big Ten going to be putting those games on FS1? (In which case the Pac-12 would still reach a bigger audience.) Or is this the first hint that ESPN will still be one of the conference’s partners going forward?

If you’re a Big 12 or Pac-12 fan, you should be rooting like heck for ESPN to lose most or all of its Big Ten package so that it will need someone else to backfill it.

Stew, Why do you hate the Big 12 so much?

Tim, on behalf of America

Fake news. I don’t hate anyone, much less an entire football conference.

I even plan to be in a Big 12 football stadium Week 2 of the season.

Greetings Stewart, with the SEC championship game likely headed towards a rematch from last year, and Ohio State probably coming out of the Big Ten (unless they get run over by Michigan again), who is on your short list of teams to shake things up or surprise some people?

Stewart, Nashville, Tenn.

Is it possible that in all these years of writing mailbags, this is the first time I’ve heard from another Stewart (spelled the same way)? If it happened before, I don’t recall.

As long as Bryce Young stays healthy, I’m writing Alabama into the SEC championship game with pen. I’m not as resolute, though, that the Tide will be facing Georgia. The Dawgs certainly start out as favorites in the East, but they have a lot to replace on defense. It’s Jalen Carter, Nolan Smith, Kelee Ringo and then a whole lot of guys taking on much bigger roles. They’re almost all former blue-chip recruits, but that doesn’t guarantee Georgia will automatically reload. Even Alabama had seasons recently in which its defense wasn’t its usual caliber; it just had such filthy offenses it didn’t matter.

But maybe that’s precisely what Kirby Smart’s formula will be this year. Behind criminally underappreciated quarterback Stetson Bennett, tight ends Brock Bowers, Darnell Washington and Arik Gilbert and running backs Kenny McIntosh and Kendall Milton, maybe they put up 35 points a game and get right back to Atlanta. There’s not an obvious SEC East team I would point to as the most likely to topple Georgia, though Kentucky and Tennessee will be factors and I suspect Florida will be much-improved.

In the Big Ten, C.J. Stroud, TreVeyon Henderson and Jaxon Smith-Njigba certainly make it tempting to place a 100 percent guarantee on Ohio State reaching Indianapolis. But then I remind myself of two relevant moments from 2021: The Buckeyes’ offensive line looking so helpless against Michigan’s pass rush, and their defense looking so underwhelming on several occasions, including the first half of the Rose Bowl.

There’s confidence in Columbus that new offensive line coach Justin Frye (from UCLA) and new defensive coordinator Jim Knowles (Oklahoma State) will address those issues. But if Ohio State does prove vulnerable, I’d keep an eye on Michigan State. Mel Tucker’s team overachieved getting to 11 wins last season, so there’s a decent chance the Spartans actually field a better team this season. Quarterback Payton Thorne and wide receiver Jayden Reed have a great connection, and Tucker made smart use of the portal again at running back (Wisconsin’s Jalen Berger and Colorado’s Jarek Broussard), defensive end (Florida’s Khris Bogle) and cornerback (Georgia’s Ameer Speed).

If I were betting real money: Ohio State vs. Iowa and Alabama vs. Georgia. If we want to get a little bit crazier with nothing on the line, though: Michigan State vs. Minnesota and Florida vs. … well, still Alabama.

What are your thoughts on Jim Phillips as ACC commissioner? There’s no question he has a tough job right now keeping the ACC together and closing the revenue gap to other conferences. However, his ACC media day comments and opposition to Playoff expansion feels like somebody desperately trying to hold onto the old way of college sports that is never coming back. Should fans of an ACC school be worried?

Ben, Charlotte, N.C.

I have a lot of respect for Phillips, who did a tremendous job as my alma mater’s athletics director, but you’re not wrong. The CFP posturing was a tremendous backfire, but his media day sermon definitely struck me as extremely noble but also extremely out of touch with the realities facing his conference.

Former Big Ten commissioner Jim Delany and former SEC commissioner Mike Slive were always very calculated about what message they wanted to get out in the public sphere with their media day state-of-the-unions. I’m sure Phillips views it the same way. And the message surely every ACC fan wanted to hear that day — that he’s going to do everything in his power to keep the conference competitive in an increasingly cutthroat industry — is not the one they received. Instead, it was a whole lot of this:

We are not the professional ranks. This is not the NFL or NBA Light. We all remain competitive with one another, but this is not and should not be a winner-take-all or a zero-sum structure. College athletics has never been elitist or singularly commercial. … I will continue to do what’s in the best interest of the ACC, but will also strongly advocate for college athletics to be a healthy neighborhood, not two or three gated communities.

Singing kumbaya and espousing the virtues of college athletics is more the president of the NCAA’s job. The commissioner of the ACC’s job is to get his. In Phillips’ defense, he didn’t sign the 20-year contract that has since become such an albatross for his conference. Also, commissioners ultimately serve at the behest of their league’s presidents, and I suspect at least some of his “college sports is not the NFL” agenda is coming straight from the mouths of the presidents at UNC/Duke/Wake Forest/Virginia, etc.

But much like former West Coast counterpart Larry Scott, Phillips’ job performance will ultimately be based almost entirely on whether he can give the members what they need to remain nationally competitive. Scott failed in large part because he was always getting distracted by shiny objects like “innovation” and basketball games in China. Phillips doesn’t strike me as being ego-driven like Scott, but he needs to avoid falling into the same pit of prioritizing bigger-picture agendas over the issues in his own backyard.

Do out-of-conference games like the Week 1 Utah at Florida matchup still exist in 5 years?

Colby N., Draper, Utah

I don’t see why not. The SEC schools will never agree to play more than nine conference games, and the Pac-12 might not have enough schools to play more than nine conference games.

Hey Stewart. There has been quite a bit of public debate about unequal revenue distribution as a path forward in the Pac-12 (and maybe ACC) to keep higher-profile schools on board longer term. People point to Texas in the Big 12 as a reason why it won’t work for other conferences. But haven’t Boise State and the Mountain West provided a case study in how it can be successful? Boise earns more money than its fellow conference brethren (about $1.8 million a year), and there hasn’t seemed to be much discontent over the years. Or am I wrong on that?

Chad Reid, Cincinnati

I love the question, but unfortunately, Chad, you are indeed wrong about that. The Mountain West’s Boise State carve-out — which dates to its near-defection to the Big East a decade ago — has evoked no shortage of friction in that league. In fact, its presidents tried to end it two years ago when they approved their current TV deal, Boise promptly sued the conference and the presidents promptly changed their minds. Also, you may recall that when Bryan Harsin was still the coach he sent emails to his president and AD urging them to find a way to get the Broncos to a different conference.

Suffice to say, I don’t believe Boise State is particularly popular in Mountain West board rooms. But they keep getting that extra slice of the revenue for the same reason the Big 12 let Texas start its own network: What are you going to do, kick them out? And just as that concession did not preclude Texas from jumping ship anyway, Boise State will gladly rip those checks in half the second the Big 12 or Pac-12 ever calls with an invitation.

For all the reasons above, I would strongly discourage the Pac-12, Big 12 or ACC from ever kicking open the uneven revenue door, because again, in this new superconference world, if Oregon gets a call from the Big Ten, Oregon is going to the Big Ten. So you might as well try to keep the harmony in the meantime. As I wrote about the other day, I don’t think Oregon even has all that much leverage right now because there’s no evidence that jumping to the Big 12 would be any more lucrative for them.

One concession I do think the Other 2 power conferences may have to make soon, though, is to not make anyone sign a grant of rights. There are no grant of rights agreements in the Group of 5 leagues because everyone’s pragmatic enough to realize they all want to move up the ladder if they can. The Big 12 and Pac-12 aren’t down at that level yet, but they’re still in much the same position. The landscape is rapidly changing, and any school would be foolish right now to lock themselves out of the possibility of moving to a significantly richer conference, whether that’s two months from now or 12 years from now.

What would the effect on realignment be if an unexpected national championship came from one of the non-super conferences, such as an Oregon State or Syracuse that has a Cinderella type year? Does the ACC/PAC get more leverage in media negotiations?

Stephen O, New Orleans, La.

It’s hard to say without knowing what the media landscape will look like in the year 3287.

 

[Gidnik 3,285]

3 minutes ago, DanTheHorn said:

I don't know either but I will take a guess

i dont have an account. i just read the headline and extrapolated. 

John Canzano is big sad today too. 

https://www.johncanzano.com/p/canzano-a-walk-on-story-worth-celebrating

 

Quote

GRANDSTANDING: Big Ten Commissioner Kevin Warren did a fair bit of grandstanding as part of the conference media day on Tuesday. He didn’t do a cartwheel on stage, but he came very close.

Warren spent a good portion of his time touting the Big Ten’s poaching of USC and UCLA. Pac-12 stakeholders weren’t happy about all the horn tooting. Said one conference employee: “The only people happy with the USC/UCLA move are those in the B1G, USC/UCLA and FOX.”

Warren also appeared to take a shot at the Pac-12 when he was asked about expansion and the health of college football.

Said Warren: “If a conference is allegedly on the brink, there are many more issues than members leaving. There are deeper issues. I’m not promoting conferences facing a crisis or going out of business, not at all. But I come out of the NFL for 21 years. In the NFL, either you succeed or you fail, and that's not only on the field. I’m talking about in business, operationally. Either you have your fan base or you don’t.”

The Pac-12’s biggest problem is its media rights deal. The conference has advantageous geography in the Pacific Time Zone. It has good history, strong brands, and it wants very much to matter. But let’s face it — losing USC and UCLA was a gut punch from Warren’s conference. That blow equated to the loss of 5.2 million television households.

How do you replace that if you’re the Pac-12?

I’ve long wondered about San Diego State as a Pac-12 expansion candidate. It would add back 1.1 million TV homes in the Southern California footprint. I also wonder about UNLV as a possible addition.

The Las Vegas television market is only in the top-40 right now, but the region is growing rapidly. There’s a pile of untapped sponsorship money buried in Vegas and commissioner George Kliavkoff lives there and is deeply connected. I’ll bet he rarely pays for a meal.

UNLV might not command a full share of media rights distributions out of the gate. It also plays home football games in the NFL stadium in Las Vegas. It would be a speculative play, for sure, but doubling down on Vegas makes sense.

 

[closetohumping 17,476]

Big 12- frumpy looking girl who thinks she doesn’t get asked out because guys are intimidated by her?

[Guest]

4 hours ago, Longboard Horn said:

FUCK IT. At this point, since all the power conferences are expanding let's play a 14 regular game season. 

The student athlete could never endure such a treacherous burden.