Realignment talk not going away

[camel at sea 589]

The Big 12 is more stable than the PAC because once you get past the schools at the top of the PAC, the Big 12 is a lot better.  To whatever degree things are evened out by those schools at the top, that advantage is lost when those valuable schools are desperate to leave.  

This has been obvious for a while to just about everyone except the PAC apologists in the media - all of whom were happily dancing on the grave of the Big 12 a year ago.

If the Big Ten is willing to take UW, UO, Stanford, and Cal, then the PAC is dead.  The Big 12 will add the Four Corners.  Then we'll see what happens with the ACC.  The Big Ten might not be able to raid the ACC - and have the money work - if ND is not involved.  With the Big Ten at 20 members, the pie would have to grow dramatically to justify slicing it into even more slices.  The SEC could make it even tougher for the Big Ten by taking the Top 4 from the ACC first.  If so, then 10 ACC schools + a partial ND is still a viable conference and maybe they absorb the Big 12's eastern wing as backfill.    

Edited July 27, 2022 by camel at sea

[Vermin 3044]

If we're doing 20, who is the SEC adding?

Clemson, Florida State, UNC, and Virginia?

[camel at sea 589]

3 minutes ago, Vermin said:

If we're doing 20, who is the SEC adding?

Clemson, Florida State, UNC, and Virginia?

That would be my guess.  But if UNC/UVA don't want to move, then Virginia Tech gets a look.  Georgia Tech might also due to location, academics, existing rivalries, etc.  Louisville's AD is one of the most valuable in the ACC but I'm not sure they'd want to add a 2nd school in Kentucky.  

[notre dame joe 187]

51 minutes ago, camel at sea said:

The Big 12 is more stable than the PAC because once you get past the schools at the top of the PAC, the Big 12 is a lot better.  To whatever degree things are evened out by those schools at the top, that advantage is lost when those valuable schools are desperate to leave.  

This has been obvious for a while to just about everyone except the PAC apologists in the media - all of whom were happily dancing on the grave of the Big 12 a year ago.

If the Big Ten is willing to take UW, UO, Stanford, and Cal, then the PAC is dead.  The Big 12 will add the Four Corners.  Then we'll see what happens with the ACC.  The Big Ten might not be able to raid the ACC - and have the money work - if ND is not involved.  With the Big Ten at 20 members, the pie would have to grow dramatically to justify slicing it into even more slices.  The SEC could make it even tougher for the Big Ten by taking the Top 4 from the ACC first.  If so, then 10 ACC schools + a partial ND is still a viable conference and maybe they absorb the Big 12's eastern wing as backfill.    

 

35 minutes ago, Vermin said:

If we're doing 20, who is the SEC adding?

Clemson, Florida State, UNC, and Virginia?

Seems to me that we're playing Risk.  The SEC cannot destroy the ACC and keep the BUG out of the South.  That would require the SEC to take 8 schools.  Therefore the SEC's choices are keep the ACC together or get used to seeing Ohio State play in Florida. 

[SimonBolivar 10958]

3 minutes ago, notre dame joe said:

 

Seems to me that we're playing Risk.  The SEC cannot destroy the ACC and keep the BUG out of the South.  That would require the SEC to take 8 schools.  Therefore the SEC's choices are keep the ACC together or get used to seeing Ohio State play in Florida. 

Does it really matter? There's plenty of space, recruits, and cash for both conferences 

Edited July 27, 2022 by SimonBolivar

[notre dame joe 187]

1 minute ago, SimonBolivar said:

Does it really matter? There's plenty of space, recruits, and cash for both conferences 

Since we spent 12 years in an ongoing discussion about media markets and recruiting footprints I will say 'Yes, it matters.'

[Not a Sock 2313]

This is rapidly starting to feel like the Creation of the Big 12 2.0 but with the B1G and Pac instead of SWC and Big 8 and it will suffer the same fate.

Edited July 27, 2022 by Not a Sock

[Vermin 3044]

28 minutes ago, notre dame joe said:

 

Seems to me that we're playing Risk.  The SEC cannot destroy the ACC and keep the BUG out of the South.  That would require the SEC to take 8 schools.  Therefore the SEC's choices are keep the ACC together or get used to seeing Ohio State play in Florida. 

No Southern school is going to turn down the SEC, moron.

Here's the recruiting pitch: you fly 6 hours every other week to play on a frozen tundra. Yea, I don't think so.

[Saint Austin 745]

32 minutes ago, notre dame joe said:

 

Seems to me that we're playing Risk.  The SEC cannot destroy the ACC and keep the BUG out of the South.  That would require the SEC to take 8 schools.  Therefore the SEC's choices are keep the ACC together or get used to seeing Ohio State play in Florida. 

I had the exact same thought. If I were the SEC, I'd definitely grab UNC and Virginia first because they're most likely to be coveted by B1G. I don't buy B1G going after FSU or Miami due to their lack of AAU status. Those two, plus Clemson, would be available to the SEC anytime it wants them.

[camel at sea 589]

40 minutes ago, notre dame joe said:

 

Seems to me that we're playing Risk.  The SEC cannot destroy the ACC and keep the BUG out of the South.  That would require the SEC to take 8 schools.  Therefore the SEC's choices are keep the ACC together or get used to seeing Ohio State play in Florida. 

If the Big Ten goes to 20 with the PAC schools mentioned, I think the SEC can take what it wants from the ACC *and* keep the Big Ten out of the South.  If the top 4 ACC schools end up in the SEC and Notre Dame is off the board, who could the Big Ten add to grow past 20, that would be financially additive?

[closetohumping 17442]

54 minutes ago, SimonBolivar said:

Does it really matter? There's plenty of space, recruits, and cash for both conferences 

May actually need each other for all we know

[WBT 20572]

5 hours ago, closetohumping said:

nobody is going to get booted from a conference.  Yet

But why not?  I'm definitely not excited about going from one group of cow colleges to another.  The B1G was always more attractive, moreso now with SC/UCLA.  But if we're going to upset everything, why not just start from scratch?

[closetohumping 17442]

Just now, WBT said:

But why not?  I'm definitely not excited about going from one group of cow colleges to another.  The B1G was always more attractive, moreso now with SC/UCLA.  But if we're going to upset everything, why not just start from scratch?

I’m more of a b1g guy as well but the one thing we took away from aggy when we joined the sec was “sec! Sec! Sec!”   They put the most guys in the nfl by far, they’re in the most talent rich region and we get our natural rivals back.  Now do I like being associated with the inbreds?  No

[bullet 1597]

7 hours ago, DFW Horn said:

CDC is a glad-hander and fundraiser, first and foremost.

DeLoss was pretty good at that, too, before he crested the hill. Dodds would've had us in the SEC along with Arkansas back in 1991 if not for Texas politics at the time. I find it amusing that you think he should've foreseen the monumental changes occurring now since he hasn't been around for almost a decade.

Whatever else you say about DeLoss, he turned Texas athletics into a cash cow.  He did a great job financially.  Now I thought it was pretty tacky driving a BMW onto the field at halftime, but he did find ways to make money.  Texas was not the financial juggernaut it is now when he arrived.

[bullet 1597]

https://www.espn.com/college-football/story/_/id/34297535/big-ten-expand-additions-usc-ucla-says-commissioner-kevin-warren-adds-additional-value-conference

Interesting quote telling you Warren's mindset:

"...He also realizes that conference realignment can be costly for other leagues.

"If a conference is allegedly on the brink, there are many more issues than members leaving," said Warren. "There are deeper issues. I'm not promoting conferences facing a crisis or going out of business, not at all. But I come out of the NFL for 21 years. In the NFL, either you succeed or you fail, and that's not only on the field. I'm talking about in business, operationally. Either you have your fan base or you don't....""

A different article quoted him (not sure if its linked above or not) as saying expansion wouldn't be considered until AFTER their new TV deal is signed in August.

[clapclapclap 9000]

 

[notre dame joe 187]

2 hours ago, camel at sea said:

If the Big Ten goes to 20 with the PAC schools mentioned, I think the SEC can take what it wants from the ACC *and* keep the Big Ten out of the South.  If the top 4 ACC schools end up in the SEC and Notre Dame is off the board, who could the Big Ten add to grow past 20, that would be financially additive?

They just Buggered the last taboo by taking two remote schools on an island, one of which has zero history and sketchy fan support.*  So it is not far fetched to imagine they suddenly announced that Ga Tech and Miami are joining the BUG.  Or anyone south of the mason dixon not named Wake Forest.  Maybe the SEC is just fine with them having overlapping markets, maybe not. 

[hawkfan 60]

3 hours ago, notre dame joe said:

 

Seems to me that we're playing Risk.  The SEC cannot destroy the ACC and keep the BUG out of the South.  That would require the SEC to take 8 schools.  Therefore the SEC's choices are keep the ACC together or get used to seeing Ohio State play in Florida. 

They really don't have a choice unless they're willing to take all 8 schools - someone is going to have to pay FSU/Clemson/Miami/UNC/UVA/Va Tech to keep them all happy.

The B1G will get their pick of that group if the SEC doesn't extend an offer - SEC might as well move first and get who they want.  None of those schools are saying no if the B1G extends an invite.

Unless the SEC can convince ESPN to reopen their current ACC deal and fuck themselves by charitably giving the ACC more money (which they won't do, cuz shareholders), the ACC is dead no matter what happens.

Edited July 27, 2022 by hawkfan

[Vermin 3044]

2 minutes ago, hawkfan said:

They really don't have a choice unless they're willing to take all 8 schools - someone is going to have to pay FSU/Clemson/Miami/UNC/UVA/Va Tech to keep them all happy.

The B1G will get their pick of that group if the SEC doesn't extend an offer - SEC might as well move first and get who they want.  None of those schools are saying no if the B1G extends an invite.

Unless the SEC can convince ESPN to reopen their current ACC deal and fuck themselves by charitably giving the ACC more money (which they won't do, cuz shareholders), the ACC is dead no matter what happens.

Why can't they just cherry pick the crown jewels like the B1G did to the Pac-12 and the SEC did to the Big 12?

[hawkfan 60]

Either conference can, that's my point.

ND Joe made it sound like the SEC could somehow keep the ACC alive by not taking any action, which I don't see as a realistic option.

[clapclapclap 9000]

https://www.cbssports.com/college-football/news/big-ten-evaluating-cal-oregon-stanford-and-washington-from-pac-12-as-further-expansion-considered/

Dodd types a lot, and I often wonder if many of his 'sources' are actually low level types.  So FWIW:

...Industry sources tell CBS Sports that Cal, Oregon, Stanford and Washington would not bring requisite value as the 16 teams that will make up the league in 2024 with USC and UCLA in the fold. That could lead to the four programs taking substantially less revenue than existing members just to have long-term security in the Big Ten.

The revenue cut taken by Cal, Oregon, Stanford and Washington in joining the Big Ten -- compared to other conference members -- would need to be "significant," industry sources say. That would present a headache to rightsholders trying to restructure a deal already in place.

However, the revenue those four teams could receive would still likely be far higher than the combined value of the 10 remaining Pac-12 schools together. That number is estimated as $21 million to $30 million per school annually...

 

...College athletics sources reached out to CBS Sports concerned with the tenor of Warren's address Wednesday. They believed, even if Warren was going to be aggressive in further expansion, keeping it to himself instead of sending ripples of worry through college athletics might have been a sounder move...

 

...Asked for his requirements in pursuing new members, Warren went down his checklist.

"Goodness of fit. That's more the holistic viewpoint," Warren told CBS Sports. "Under that, it's the academic stability. Two, the athletic strength. Three, their alumni base. Four, their fan base. Five, the progressive nature of their leadership. That's what made USC and UCLA so special..."

 

...The Big 12 is also zeroing on westward expansion with Arizona, at least, according to sources. There is no indication if Arizona State would follow, though CBS Sports previously reported that ASU, Colorado and Utah were the Big 12's targets. San Diego State is in play for both the Pac-12 and Big 12, sources indicate...

---

Also, here's an interesting, albeit long, look behind the curtain at the Big Ten HQ before and after former Vikings COO Warren began his transformation.  More drama and intrigue than expected, and the AD's even contemplated a mutiny.  Looking like his and Fox's vision is to turn it into more of a pro style league:

https://www.sportico.com/leagues/college-sports/2022/big-ten-commissioner-warren-1234683396/

Edited July 27, 2022 by clapclapclap

[Vermin 3044]

22 minutes ago, clapclapclap said:

Five, the progressive nature of their leadership. That's what made USC and UCLA so special...

Pronouns in bio and you get an invite.

[Doctor of Neighborhood 429]

43 minutes ago, sportsbay said:

Let them pick up any of those schools.  After Texas, there is a diminishing marginal rate of return when adding schools.  Is FOX going to overpay by giving Miami 100M as a comuter school?  At this point, adding teams to be bigger will not be "better".  Forcing Oregon or FSU to take a smaller payout than Indiana, Illinois, Nortwestern, Minnesota, Purdue, Maryland, or Rutgers is a non starter.  It won't last long. 

It's best to keep a strong core and keep goods mathcups on the TV.  Problem for BUG is that the schools mentioned above are not strong athletic institutions.  I'd like to see their TV ratings spread all over the net for a good laugh.

This sentence works on a lot of levels.  I am pleased.

[camel at sea 589]

2 hours ago, clapclapclap said:

https://www.cbssports.com/college-football/news/big-ten-evaluating-cal-oregon-stanford-and-washington-from-pac-12-as-further-expansion-considered/

Dodd types a lot, and I often wonder if many of his 'sources' are actually low level types.  So FWIW:

 

If the PAC NW schools are willing to take a deal like that, then I think we see the tone from guys like Wilner and Mandel begin to change.  

For whatever it's worth, they absolutely should take that deal if the B1G is willing to give it to them.

[closetohumping 17442]

3 hours ago, notre dame joe said:

They just Buggered the last taboo by taking two remote schools on an island, one of which has zero history and sketchy fan support.*  So it is not far fetched to imagine they suddenly announced that Ga Tech and Miami are joining the BUG.  Or anyone south of the mason dixon not named Wake Forest.  Maybe the SEC is just fine with them having overlapping markets, maybe not. 

They’d be in every  market that matters a true coast to coast conference.  The sec would look kind of regional 

[Francisco 2.0 32393]

5 minutes ago, closetohumping said:

They’d be in every  market that matters a true coast to coast conference.  The sec would look kind of regional 

 

I'm thinking the SEC is fine being regional. 

[Deej 76791]

I, for one, am looking forward to the Rose Bowl Parade in a few years.

 

[camel at sea 589]

I hope he's being paid well for this.  

[thunderlounge 7832]

To what depths of depravity and retardation will this dumb fuck sink?

 

[closetohumping 17442]

B1G going after schoo the big 12 turned down.  Fucking losers 

[Horn of Gabriel 1614]

10 minutes ago, camel at sea said:

I hope he's being paid well for this.  

At this point I don't really care how the PAC implodes, I just hope that it does so I can run, not walk, to Mandel's twitter to see him squirm.

[camel at sea 589]

Wilner having a hard time, too.  

[Deej 76791]

51 minutes ago, camel at sea said:

I hope he's being paid well for this.  

He's probably crying as he pegs his own ass with a 12 inch dildo while fantasizing about the strength of the remaining PAC 12 teams. 

[Alot 80]

28 minutes ago, Deej said:

He's probably crying as he pegs his own ass with a 12 inch dildo while fantasizing about the strength of the remaining PAC 12 teams. 

[WhatTheBuck 28781]

5 hours ago, clapclapclap said:

Looking like his and Fox's vision is to turn it into more of a pro style league:

That’s what you took from that article? Man, your reading comprehension really sucks.

[Jabberwocky 1666]

Pac 10 better watch out!

[maninblack 7974]

This is all so stupid until the "haves" break away from the "have nots".

[bullet 1597]

3 hours ago, Francisco 2.0 said:

 

I'm thinking the SEC is fine being regional. 

The SEC covers every market where college football is big except for Columbus, Ohio.

[bullet 1597]

2 hours ago, camel at sea said:

Wilner having a hard time, too.  

Yeah.  I saw somebody, I think on FtT take apart the Navigate numbers and analyze them.  Its not that hard if you read the whole thing and have a couple hours.  Now that quick and dirty analysis that took 40% off the top on the Pac wasn't right, but that was pretty obvious.  It was only 40% off TV money-basically. $20 million/school, not 40% off all distributions.

[Hagbard Celine 10864]

On 7/26/2022 at 1:36 PM, Al_4_ISU said:

I guess I’m blowing off steam because I’m enraged at how we’ve done absolutely everything you’re supposed to do and doesn’t matter. We got way better. We’re top 30 in attendance and rating. We have a legitimate stadium and legitimate program and it doesn’t fucking matter because we were born on the wrong side of the tracks and sucked 30 years ago. Subjective elitist bullshit trumping meritocracy generally triggers its targets.

i repped your post so i could ask you to rethink "doing everything you're supposed to do".  did your administration call out aggy in 2006/7/8/9/10/11?  what about public admonishment of Dr. Tom for his bullshit on the way out?  any public pronouncements about the holding in our game in lubbock in '08?  or the vote by the other coaches in '08?  or the interstellar-grade bullshit in our oSu game in Austin in '15?  did your athletic department ever go on the record in those matters?  did your administration or AD make any public comments at all about the shares of the departure money that Texas voluntarily and unsolicited surrendered to the orphan 5?  how about any public comments thanking us for never raising the subject of unequal revenue sharing?

Big Evil Texas has taken the high road time after time after time.

You may end up being "the most screwed" when the dust settles.

But this is the wrong place to come looking for sympathy, no matter how much we, I, many of us, like you and respect you.

Your #1 enemy is 129 miles east of you.  You need to raise a shitstorm in your statehouse that will put the fear of god in Iowa City.  Indiana is this close to having 3 "p5" schools in the same league, 2 of which are private, and only Texas, California and Florida have 3 or more.  Iowa and Iowa State are (checks notes...) both public schools, and you need to make their lives painful until they get you in to an expanded b1g.  Demand equal revenue sharing with Iowa.  Garnishee their wages.  Litigate the hell out of them in your State court and enjoin the b1g.  Stir the shitstorm.  Make arrests.  Bring them to trial.  Demand justice.

[notre dame joe 187]

6 hours ago, Deej said:

I, for one, am looking forward to the Rose Bowl Parade in a few years.

 

I meant to follow my last asterisk:  did the LA schools keep their plans secret from the Rose Bowl committee?  Isn't that committee stocked with boosters who would have had to know??

[Al_4_ISU 12463]

6 hours ago, Hagbard Celine said:

i repped your post so i could ask you to rethink "doing everything you're supposed to do".  did your administration call out aggy in 2006/7/8/9/10/11?  what about public admonishment of Dr. Tom for his bullshit on the way out?  any public pronouncements about the holding in our game in lubbock in '08?  or the vote by the other coaches in '08?  or the interstellar-grade bullshit in our oSu game in Austin in '15?  did your athletic department ever go on the record in those matters?  did your administration or AD make any public comments at all about the shares of the departure money that Texas voluntarily and unsolicited surrendered to the orphan 5?  how about any public comments thanking us for never raising the subject of unequal revenue sharing?

Big Evil Texas has taken the high road time after time after time.

You may end up being "the most screwed" when the dust settles.

But this is the wrong place to come looking for sympathy, no matter how much we, I, many of us, like you and respect you.

Your #1 enemy is 129 miles east of you.  You need to raise a shitstorm in your statehouse that will put the fear of god in Iowa City.  Indiana is this close to having 3 "p5" schools in the same league, 2 of which are private, and only Texas, California and Florida have 3 or more.  Iowa and Iowa State are (checks notes...) both public schools, and you need to make their lives painful until they get you in to an expanded b1g.  Demand equal revenue sharing with Iowa.  Garnishee their wages.  Litigate the hell out of them in your State court and enjoin the b1g.  Stir the shitstorm.  Make arrests.  Bring them to trial.  Demand justice.

I've laid out in this thread a million times how our administration publicly fellated Texas, played on LHN, called it a good thing for the league, recognized that OU/UT were the bell cows, etc.

And your last point is crazy.  The last time politics have mattered in realignment was when Ann Richards got Baylor out of the SWC.  That was nearly 30 years ago.

[Texas Wahoo 3396]

29 minutes ago, Al_4_ISU said:

I've laid out in this thread a million times how our administration publicly fellated Texas, played on LHN, called it a good thing for the league, recognized that OU/UT were the bell cows, etc.

And your last point is crazy.  The last time politics have mattered in realignment was when Ann Richards got Baylor out of the SWC.  That was nearly 30 years ago.

Virginia Tech wouldn’t be in the ACC if not for Virginia politicians forcing it. 

[Al_4_ISU 12463]

4 minutes ago, Texas Wahoo said:

Virginia Tech wouldn’t be in the ACC if not for Virginia politicians forcing it. 

Really?  They seemed like the obvious class of the Big East (with Miami) at the time it went down.

Still, we've seen people say that the Oklahoma schools had to be a package (obviously not), and that the Texas legislature would never let Aggy and UT split (obviously not) and wouldn't let Tech stay behind (obviously not).

If the Iowa legislature demanded that ISU be let in to the Big 10, Kevin Warren would respond with something to the effect of "triple your state's population and we'll think about it.  Maybe."

Edited July 28, 2022 by Al_4_ISU

[Texas Wahoo 3396]

15 minutes ago, Al_4_ISU said:

Really?  They seemed like the obvious class of the Big East (with Miami) at the time it went down.

Still, we've seen people say that the Oklahoma schools had to be a package (obviously not), and that the Texas legislature would never let Aggy and UT split (obviously not) and wouldn't let Tech stay behind (obviously not).

If the Iowa legislature demanded that ISU be let in to the Big 10, Kevin Warren would respond with something to the effect of "triple your state's population and we'll think about it.  Maybe."

https://www.wric.com/sports/15-years-later-sen-warner-legendary-coach-beamer-recall-wild-ride-virginia-tech-took-to-join-acc/amp/

[LTbear 4169]

1 hour ago, Al_4_ISU said:

The last time politics have mattered in realignment was when Ann Richards got Baylor out of the SWC.  That was nearly 30 years ago.

Just for the sake of accuracy, Ann gave no fucks and didn't do shit; that's just a refuses-to-die internet myth because it sounds so obvious. Bob Bullock was the politician who led the charge for Baylor and Tech. 

Edited July 28, 2022 by LTbear

[Al_4_ISU 12463]

Tech seems like an obvious inclusion, but Baylor vs TCU was a coin flip.

[LTbear 4169]

Just now, Al_4_ISU said:

Tech seems like an obvious inclusion, but Baylor vs TCU was a coin flip.

Not at the time. TCU was on a multi-decade run of absolutely awful football back then and had horrible attendance/ interest. As a football program, Baylor was clearly better, they just immediately went into a nosedive once the Big XII started play/ after Teaff retired. 

[LTbear 4169]

3 minutes ago, Al_4_ISU said:

Tech seems like an obvious inclusion, but Baylor vs TCU was a coin flip.

I got curious and looked it up. Between 1960 - 1993 TCU had four seasons of 6+ wins. It was bad. To their credit, they used being left out of the original Big XII as a real call to action and completely revitalized that program over the following decade. 

[utee94 15823]

10 minutes ago, LTbear said:

Just for the sake of accuracy, Ann gave no fucks and didn't do shit; that's just a refuses-to-die internet myth because it sounds so obvious. Bob Bullock was the politician who led the charge for Baylor and Tech. 

Word up.

It's hard to believe this myth persists almost 30 years later, but here we are.