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Realignment talk not going away

The Tower

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Posted by Sandbagging Steve,

How many teams will be left when the dust settles in a few years? I think there's a way for all the teams to still have some involvement. I will explain that at the end of this list. Here's my list of the top 32 programs and a list if it goes to 48. There's some debate if it goes to 48, but not much debate if it stops at 32. I guess one could debate Arizona State, but that's about it. The top 32 at least come close to carrying their own weight. Everyone below that line is losing money for t

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statsman

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Back to the realignment point- the Ags made a great move to jump up in recruiting juice by going to the SEC. It’s a conference where paying is not discouraged a bit, and they could also sell to recruits a better path to the NFL. That hurt Texas and OU. 

By joining theSEC, Texas and OU hope to re-establish the status quo. 
 
NIL (with no salary caps) and free player movement has changed the game. It will be interesting to see how things shake out. 

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Aggy should abstain so the vote is 13-0 and then we can then brand it on their dog.

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Trojan Man

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3 hours ago, Gidnik said:

 

These people (the UC regents) are a bunch of fucking clowns.  They're so out of touch, they have no understanding of college athletics and how the money in it works.  You can tell they're all political appointees who got where they are by donating money to the correct candidates and causes, not because they are qualified experts.  These are some of the idiots who thought Larry Scott was doing a great job and kept giving him raises and extensions while he burned the Pac 12 to the ground.  I can't wait for USC to be in a conference where the leaders understand and acknowledge the importance of football and prioritize it accordingly instead of pretending anyone gives a fuck about non-revenue sports outside of the Olympics.

Here's the nearly two hour UC regents meeting Mandel was tweeting about all day.  At the 1:04 mark they propose changing the authority to make decisions on conference affiliation from the campus level to the regent level.  It's unclear if this is strictly a policy going forward with remaining schools or if they intend to retroactively apply it to UCLA to try to force them to stay in the Pac, which would set up a huge legal battle.  You can see why UCLA had to take these people by surprise with the move to the Big 10 instead of giving them more time and preparation to push back.  I think the most likely outcome is UCLA still goes to the Big 10, but they're forced to give a percentage of their Big 10 paycheck to Cal as reparations.  If I'm UCLA I start lobbying for Cal to get a Big 10 invitation to make all these hurt feelings disappear, though selfishly from a USC fan perspective I'm just fine with the Big 10 owning LA and USC preserving the crosstown rivalry while the UC regents kneecap UCLA's budget and make it harder for them to keep up in the CFB arms race.

 

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50 minutes ago, statsman said:

Back to the realignment point- the Ags made a great move to jump up in recruiting juice by going to the SEC. It’s a conference where paying is not discouraged a bit, and they could also sell to recruits a better path to the NFL. That hurt Texas and OU. 

By joining theSEC, Texas and OU hope to re-establish the status quo. 
 
NIL (with no salary caps) and free player movement has changed the game. It will be interesting to see how things shake out. 

aggy didn't really hurt UT and OU.  It was Alabama and Georgia and Clemson and Ohio St. who were getting the blue chips.  aggy did what they normally did with a good recruiter.  Until last year when they opened the checkbook.  And Texas and Texas A&M beat out the Alabamas, Georgias, Clemsons and Ohio St.s.

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Trojan Man

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21 minutes ago, Gidnik said:

i wonder how the pac 12 got into the mess its in now

A few things

-Larry Scott being a dumbass is the biggest reason (he spent so much time on stupid shit like trying to grow fanbases in Asian countries with basketball games there and he also wasted a lot of money on fancy Pac 12 offices in San Francisco), though had the Pac 16 gone through in 2010 there's your first super conference and it would be on par with what the Big 10 and SEC generate in terms of media deals and ratings and big games, Scott would be hailed as a savior for pulling that off

-The P12 Network was a huge failure, Scott insisted on going it alone which meant it never had the Fox/ESPN backing the BTN and SEC Network had so it couldn't get much carriage, but again had the Pac 16 come to fruition maybe the P16 Network is able to get the carriage it needs to be viable with a central timezone presence and a couple more bluebloods in the fold, keeping 100% ownership instead of partnering with a media giant becomes a stroke of genius in that timeline

-Most of the leaders in this conference, both ADs and university presidents, just don't "get it"; you can see the ivory tower sentiment where they ask questions anyone posting in this thread knows the answer to in the Youtube link in my last post, they gobbled up Scott's push for parity which is a big reason this conference doesn't produce many elite teams (if it was up to Scott and the Pac 12 university presidents every team would go 6-6 every year), they care too much about women's/non-revenue sports and not enough about football, that's noble in theory but in reality it gets your conference lapped in media money and eventually kills your conference

-Ultimately way too many Pac 12 programs are content to just show up and collect their media deal check rather than put in the effort and money to field a competitive team, of the left behind schools I'd say Oregon and Utah are the only ones really committed to winning at a high level, the rest feel like they view winning as a cool thing if it happens but they don't particularly care if it doesn't happen, I've heard Arizona State referred to as a sleeping giant my entire life but I'm still waiting to see what they look like when they're awake so maybe it's time we refer to them as comatose instead of sleeping

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mdmost

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Seriously, watch this promo and tell me how many of these teams you'd actually tune in to watch if it's not against Ohio State, Michigan, or USC. I mean good for the Big 10 but I simply do not get how they are this valuable when it's so top heavy. 

 

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billfromlaketravis

billfromlaketravis 11478

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2 minutes ago, mdmost said:

Seriously, watch this promo and tell me how many of these teams you'd actually tune in to watch if it's not against Ohio State, Michigan, or USC. I mean good for the Big 10 but I simply do not get how they are this valuable when it's so top heavy. 

 

Correct. Ohio State will be on every week. Just like Bama when the SEC is down. 

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mdmost

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Right. Fox will get the big boys in that Big Noon slot every week unless they trade away the choice. Maybe there's a preseason scramble where each one gets a first choice like when Fox took Bama/Texas this year and ABC got Michigan/tOSU. So one year Fox gets to choose Michigan/tOSU and then NBC gets it the next year. 

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Hurtlocker

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28 minutes ago, mdmost said:

Seriously, watch this promo and tell me how many of these teams you'd actually tune in to watch if it's not against Ohio State, Michigan, or USC. I mean good for the Big 10 but I simply do not get how they are this valuable when it's so top heavy. 

 

I don't, but they are giant schools, in heavily populated areas, with generational alumni dating back a century.    The SEC is new money compared to the Big Ten.

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mdmost

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9 minutes ago, Hurtlocker said:

I don't, but they are giant schools, in heavily populated areas, with generational alumni dating back a century.    The SEC is new money compared to the Big Ten.

I mean I guess that's the deal. My other guess is this is the last gasp of the OTA networks to keep sports content from going to streaming and cable only networks. 

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WhatTheBuck

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28 minutes ago, mdmost said:

Seriously, watch this promo and tell me how many of these teams you'd actually tune in to watch if it's not against Ohio State, Michigan, or USC. I mean good for the Big 10 but I simply do not get how they are this valuable when it's so top heavy. 

 

Personally? All of ‘em.  :)

Which conference isn’t top-heavy?

The Big Ten has the three largest tv markets plus DC. They have a large population, they have major brands with large fanbases. Just because Nebraska is underachieving doesn’t mean they aren’t drawing a lot of Husker eyeballs. PSU has a huge following. Maybe you don’t want to watch them but a lot of people do. I have as little interest in the run-of-the-mill games in other conferences as you do of those in the B1G.

What I’m hearing is that some of these networks want to use the B1G to prop up their streaming services. And it takes big bucks to peel the conference away from ABC/ESPN (which I’m not so sure is going to be such a good thing in the long run since ESPN basically controls the CFP).

Imagine how big of a deal they could’ve made if ND was a member of the conference. 

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Dutch

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1 hour ago, Hurtlocker said:

I don't, but they are giant schools, in heavily populated areas, with generational alumni dating back a century.    The SEC is new money compared to the Big Ten.

Also of note is the demographic shift away from B1G states the past few decades. Folks from the Rust Belt have been moving west and south in search of better opportunity, which means those massive B1G state schools have alums and t-shirt fans spread across the country. The football product may be inferior to the SEC, but the B1G pulls viewers nationwide.

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ChiTownDoc

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3 hours ago, WhatTheBuck said:

Personally? All of ‘em.  :)

Which conference isn’t top-heavy?

The Big Ten has the three largest tv markets plus DC. They have a large population, they have major brands with large fanbases. Just because Nebraska is underachieving doesn’t mean they aren’t drawing a lot of Husker eyeballs. PSU has a huge following. Maybe you don’t want to watch them but a lot of people do. I have as little interest in the run-of-the-mill games in other conferences as you do of those in the B1G.

What I’m hearing is that some of these networks want to use the B1G to prop up their streaming services. And it takes big bucks to peel the conference away from ABC/ESPN (which I’m not so sure is going to be such a good thing in the long run since ESPN basically controls the CFP).

Imagine how big of a deal they could’ve made if ND was a member of the conference. 

LOL at giving yourself NYC w Rutgers.  🤣

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DFW Horn

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“We have one more year with them,” Warren said of ESPN and the 2022–23 season. “They’re professionals, we’re professionals, and we’ve had a close relationship with them for a long time.”

The belief that the SEC is ESPN’s priority moving forward was solidified during negotiations, Big Ten sources told SI. In terms of a monetary offer and providing a dedicated time slot for football games, the Big Ten was left wanting more from ESPN.

 

This reads to me like ESPN will have the money to buy-in on an expanded Big 12 and pay for our early release.

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Aqua Buddha

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3 hours ago, mdmost said:

Right. Fox will get the big boys in that Big Noon slot every week unless they trade away the choice. Maybe there's a preseason scramble where each one gets a first choice like when Fox took Bama/Texas this year and ABC got Michigan/tOSU. So one year Fox gets to choose Michigan/tOSU and then NBC gets it the next year. 

That's the part that doesn't make sense. They're wanting to expand their footprint west and that's fine but a 9 am PST kick off isn't going to do that.  The general population isn't going to watch football at 9 in the morning.

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hawkfan

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11 minutes ago, Aqua Buddha said:

That's the part that doesn't make sense. They're wanting to expand their footprint west and that's fine but a 9 am PST kick off isn't going to do that.  The general population isn't going to watch football at 9 in the morning.

I think it's more about blending the Oregon/Washington/Stanford types with better time slots in central/eastern time zones where they will see the biggest boost.  Those schools will all rate much more highly playing a B1G school at 3:30 EST than they will playing each other at 10PM EST.

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utee94

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3 hours ago, hawkfan said:

 

 

11 minutes ago, Aqua Buddha said:

That's the part that doesn't make sense. They're wanting to expand their footprint west and that's fine but a 9 am PST kick off isn't going to do that.  The general population isn't going to watch football at 9 in the morning.

Fox isn't going to get the first pick every time.

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WhatTheBuck

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2 hours ago, Dutch said:

Also of note is the demographic shift away from B1G states the past few decades. Folks from the Rust Belt have been moving west and south in search of better opportunity, which means those massive B1G state schools have alums and t-shirt fans spread across the country. The football product may be inferior to the SEC, but the B1G pulls viewers nationwide.

After Columbus, the second largest Buckeye Alumni Club is in L.A.

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Azbadlands

Azbadlands 109

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21 hours ago, ChiTownDoc said:

God damn it keeps getting better.  Have you ever left OK or TX?  They both fucking suck.  OKC is a lot more like Dallas/Houston than Midland.  Just like anywhere in buttfuck, TX is a lot more like buttfuck, OK than any metro area.  I guess Texas is hotter, yay.  But you thinking one is SO different from the other is really comical.  Fuck, I don't even know where to begin making fun of you.  

Yeah, I think location of the college gets overplayed a little.  If it mattered that much, schools like Arizona State or Colorado would kick ass in recruiting.  

Putting players in the draft; especially, high in the draft is a big deal.  That has been used negatively against Texas big time lately.  

I think both OU and Texas will see big dividends in recruiting in the SEC.  The games/ matchups in the SEC will drive excitement for both schools..

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WhatTheBuck

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52 minutes ago, ChiTownDoc said:

LOL at giving yourself NYC w Rutgers.  🤣

I didn’t do it. Time Warner Cable, Cablevision, and Comcast did it. Like it or not, adding Rutgers got BTN onto standard cable packages in the NYC market. There are a lot of B1G grads in NYC and even if a relatively small percentage of the population tunes in, that’s still a lot of eyeballs (and BTN still gets paid per household that carries it whether they tune in or not). I’m sure the fact that the conference footprint reaches into the New York/New Jersey market is also a factor in the deal with the broadcast networks. It’s not just about Rutgers, it’s also about the teams that will come to play them.

You didn’t think they let Rutgers join the conference just to be nice, did you? There’s big money involved, same with Maryland.

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ChiTownDoc

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11 minutes ago, WhatTheBuck said:

I didn’t do it. Time Warner Cable, Cablevision, and Comcast did it. Like it or not, adding Rutgers got BTN onto standard cable packages in the NYC market. There are a lot of B1G grads in NYC and even if a relatively small percentage of the population tunes in, that’s still a lot of eyeballs (and BTN still gets paid per household that carries it whether they tune in or not). I’m sure the fact that the conference footprint reaches into the New York/New Jersey market is also a factor in the deal with the broadcast networks. It’s not just about Rutgers, it’s also about the teams that will come to play them.

You didn’t think they let Rutgers join the conference just to be nice, did you? There’s big money involved, same with Maryland.

Yes I’m sure that adding Rutgers makes a difference.  Those alumni were there regardless and I can assure you the TV execs didn’t give any substantial bump for Rutgers.  I can’t tell if this is a bit you’re doing.  

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utee94

utee94 15823

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4 minutes ago, ChiTownDoc said:

Yes I’m sure that adding Rutgers makes a difference.  Those alumni were there regardless and I can assure you the TV execs didn’t give any substantial bump for Rutgers.  I can’t tell if this is a bit you’re doing.  

No he's right about this.  It wasn't ratings on broadcast television, it was subscriber base to force carriage of the BTN on the local cable providers.  The B1G got a major financial bump on BTN revenues when they added Rutgers and Maryland, because they leveraged it into forcing the carriers to put BTN on their lower, more base packages.

Since then, carriers in the Northeast (and Nebraska) have dumped BTN carriage, but it was a major coup at the time.

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ChiTownDoc

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6 minutes ago, utee94 said:

No he's right about this.  It wasn't ratings on broadcast television, it was subscriber base to force carriage of the BTN on the local cable providers.  The B1G got a major financial bump on BTN revenues when they added Rutgers and Maryland, because they leveraged it into forcing the carriers to put BTN on their lower, more base packages.

Since then, carriers in the Northeast (and Nebraska) have dumped BTN carriage, but it was a major coup at the time.

Oh, I'll totally agree that it's a huge deal to get B1G network on those televisions.  I'm saying there's tons of B1G alumni in all those areas and I'll maybe listen to the maryland argument - Rutgers didn't get any needle to move.  B1G would have been on those cable carriers out there.  Just like Chicago - even with no NW it doesn't matter, even take the Illini out...B1G will obviously be on TV's here. 

Now...did the B1G bet/hope Rutgers becomes respectable and some sort of brand out there...sure and their cost was peanuts imo.  They have to share with one extra mouth but it's worth that bet.  Again - TV execs aren't stupid...they had the same number of eye balls in that region with or without Rutgers.  I guess you can add a couple thousand.  Anybody who has spent time in and around NYC can tell you, Rutgers is basically invisible.  

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ChiTownDoc

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Chicago draws eye balls to college football.  I'd love to see NYC and LA numbers.  Sure, they're massive TV markets but do they actually draw more eye balls to college football games, vs, say, Atlanta?  I really have no idea.  I would guess the Dallas/FTW metroplex draws more viewers to college football vs NYC but could be way off.  

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ChiTownDoc

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37 minutes ago, BurntOrange&White said:

That will 100% get renegotiated, especially since SEC lost the BIG as a whole.  I think it also forces SEC to look into a Miami/FSU/Clemson or maybe even Washington/Oregon a lot faster.

Miami is exploding with NYC/Chicago transplants.  I think getting Miami would be huge.  Miami and either of the other two.  But I'm not really sold on Clemson post Dabo.  

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