Realignment talk not going away

[HouTex 1878]

11 minutes ago, bullet said:

2025 is the official date.  Nobody official has ever talked publicly about earlier dates.  I suspect they wanted 2022, but 2025 is when the GOR goes away.

Looking back at the July 2021 posts when the announcement was made there was talk that the Big 12 would dissolve almost instantly.  Then there was talk about UT actually joining the SEC with the 2022 season and certainly by 2023.  So now it seems that the earliest time would be the 2024 season?  So maybe one season early?  

[Horn of Gabriel 1616]

4 minutes ago, HouTex said:

Looking back at the July 2021 posts when the announcement was made there was talk that the Big 12 would dissolve almost instantly.  Then there was talk about UT actually joining the SEC with the 2022 season and certainly by 2023.  So now it seems that the earliest time would be the 2024 season?  So maybe one season early?  

It's going to go slow, until it goes fast.  I'm sure discussions are happening at the highest levels, but there are also pre-requisites that have to happen first, like the rights negotiations.  Those timeframes are outside of UT/OU's control and also somewhat outside the Big12's control.  Gotta have focus on those before they have enough clarity on what they need to let the contracts and GORs up early.

[Francisco 2.0 32395]

38 minutes ago, Mo Horn said:

As soon as the new teams were announced to join the big 12 in 2023, it was a given that we would also leave that year, imo. Everything else is about the money. 

That's my feeling as well.  Too awkward to have a one or two year scheduling fuck up with 14 teams, then decreasing to 12.

 

[utee94 15832]

51 minutes ago, bullet said:

2025 is the official date.  Nobody official has ever talked publicly about earlier dates.  I suspect they wanted 2022, but 2025 is when the GOR goes away.

Yes, of course nobody official has ever spoken of a different date, because nobody official is ever going to suggest potential breach of contract

[Texas Native 8]

8 hours ago, Al_4_ISU said:

I would think losing 4 more, and leaving only 6 remainders, would be awfully close.

The Big 12 was the best conference in football for awhile.  A few things blew it it:

NU’s baby dick

The Big 8 corrupt culture never purged

Longhorn Network

Bought officials.

and T.Boone’s obsession with Texas

Corrupt connected selection committees (see Corrupt Big 8 culture)

Unfortunately for Texas not so much for the rapist, purple hate of TCU, and a legend who became the highest paid college football coach to burn down a program and get paid to suck up another 50 mil Chicken Shit Mack Brown.

 

I know we left out Switzer, Big Red Sport, Hundiberg over night purchase and loss of all files.  Dusty the Deviorpunk almost killing his best friend.  
 

and last and not least the permanent stain and influence of the Gaylord media mafia baking our shit sandwich and telling the world it’s a filet!!!

I know we left our aggie, but that’s just their place in life.

 

So long to Bowlsby 

So long Castiglion (sp)

President and ex congress alleged page diddler, and the staff he hired at OU.

 

No the Big 12 got or will get what it deserves!

 

from CaddyShack

you'll get nothing and like it!

 

[Hurtlocker 2213]

2 hours ago, HouTex said:

Looking back at the July 2021 posts when the announcement was made there was talk that the Big 12 would dissolve almost instantly.  Then there was talk about UT actually joining the SEC with the 2022 season and certainly by 2023.  So now it seems that the earliest time would be the 2024 season?  So maybe one season early?  

This has always seemed the most likely to me.   The T1 games are on CBS prior, unless ESPN buys those out early, so why push a GoR if where you're going doesn't need you until a year prior?

 

[Al_4_ISU 12464]

I've said it a million times:  the biggest problem with the Big 12 was that a bunch of the schools just always thought at some basic level they were just downright internally better than THAT league and should be in a league that had more history and prestige.

The power brokers never really wanted to be together and never really tried that hard to get it to work.  

Nebraska was the biggest bitch of the bunch.  If they had stayed, I think the main 4 would still be here.  Even if Aggy had gone to the SEC, the monetary and financial balance wouldn't be what it is.

Edited August 31, 2022 by Al_4_ISU

[Hurtlocker 2213]

2 hours ago, bullet said:

Dodds has some odd numbers.  I recall Bowlsby saying in the legislature that the Big 12 was currently getting upper 20s media money.  Dodds claims they will get $44 million in the last year of the contract.  I think he may be confusing total distributions.  Finance is not his strong suit.

"...Those sources valued the annual rights of programs in those conferences anywhere from $21 million to $35 million annually. The Big 12 will make $44 million per school in the final year of its current agreement...."

https://www.cbssports.com/college-football/news/big-12-opens-media-rights-negotiations-ahead-of-schedule-early-exit-for-oklahoma-texas-being-considered/

Yeah he's terrible with money.   They had a long deal and the average was like $25m, not taking into consideration some of the years were like $15m.  Also their T1 deal was severely undervalued, which you're seeing a bit of now with the Big Ten.   So, while the Big 12 didn't have enough teams to sell tons of them, they were getting $4m for the Red River, when the Big Ten just sold Wisconsin/Michigan for $22m.   Even without Texas/OU, the Big 12 should be able to increase their T1 deal significantly.   And, with more inventory, they can sell more.   They're not able to do what the Big Ten/SEC can do with 4-6 big brands each, but their curve is still going up from $45 because they were undervalued at that number.   I'd guess the next deal starts at $40-45m, but it would have started at $60-65m without any movement.

 

[Hurtlocker 2213]

6 minutes ago, Al_4_ISU said:

I've said it a million times:  the biggest problem with the Big 12 was that a bunch of the schools just always thought at some basic level they were just downright internally better than THAT league and should be in a league that had more history and prestige.

The power brokers never really wanted to be together and never really tried that hard to get it to work.  

Nebraska was the biggest bitch of the bunch.  If they had stayed, I think the main 4 would still be here.  Even if Aggy had gone to the SEC, the monetary and financial balance wouldn't be what it is.

Yeah its not a long list.   The biggest issue with the Big 12 is they never worked as a cohesive unit where all institutions were in lock step strengthening the conference.  

[bullet 1597]

3 hours ago, HouTex said:

Looking back at the July 2021 posts when the announcement was made there was talk that the Big 12 would dissolve almost instantly.  Then there was talk about UT actually joining the SEC with the 2022 season and certainly by 2023.  So now it seems that the earliest time would be the 2024 season?  So maybe one season early?  

It could still happen in 2023, but I don't expect it.

[closetojumping 62746]

6 hours ago, Vertigo said:

Bobby Burton slipped the other day on a video and said Texas would be in the SEC starting next season. I don't think anyone really called him out on it, but I noticed it and the more I think about it, the more it couldn't have been speaking out of turn. This confirms that the B12 is waving the white flag on the exit fee in order to secure the long term future of the conference. It is a good move considering they need to make moves now with more expansion options, and definitely NOT something Bowlsby would have done. He would have gone down with the ship waiting on the check. 

I can promise you that, unless something has changed in the last month, Burton has good reason to believe that the move is happening in 2024 and not sooner. I think he just misspoke.

Out of curiosity, when do the Big 12 and the SEC normally release their schedules for the future season? Do they normally wait this long to release the 2023 schedules for each team? 

[statsman 5472]

The 2022 SEC schedule was released 9-21-2021. I gotta think the B12 schedule determination is more likely to slide, because of the new entrants as well as exits. 

Edited August 31, 2022 by statsman

[Trojan Man 429]

Seems to me like the cleanest way to give everyone something they want in finalizing the divorce between Texas/Oklahoma and the Big 12 is for ESPN to overpay for the Big 12's next TV contract, effectively paying their buyout for them.  Getting UT/OU to the SEC earlier seems like it would more than offset paying the Big 12 a little more than they're worth.

-The Big 12 gets a good contract

-UT/OU go to the SEC in 2023 instead of 2025

-ESPN gets a 1 year super conference head start on Fox/the Big 10 as opposed to Fox/the Big 10 getting a 1 year head start if UT/OU stay in the Big 12 until 2025

-ESPN owns 3 conferences, plus if they want more late night coverage without paying for the Pac 12 the Big 12 can likely poach whoever they want from the Pac 12 with their shiny new above-market contract

The only potential problem is CBS' contract with the SEC running through 2023.  They'd have to come to some kind of deal, like ESPN buying out CBS a year early or trading their 2023 Big 10 rights for CBS' 2023 SEC rights.  I'm not sure what the magic number would be to get the Big 12 to agree with this so I'll leave that to those more knowledgeable about the Big 12's media value.

[BurntOrange&White 39934]

9 hours ago, Texas Wahoo said:

 

Isn’t this the dude that carries water for the pac12

[statsman 5472]

It’s gotta be a fun conversation at the PAC meetings, about the new contract and GOR. There are four teams that don’t want to be locked in because they hope for a call from the B10. There are four teams that would/could/should(?) jump to the B12. There are two teams that might have to go Mountain West. 
 
They either need a rock solid GOR or no GOR at all. It will be interesting to see how it shakes out. 

[FartingDreamer 138]

Fuck the Pac 12.  

[Hurtlocker 2213]

1 hour ago, statsman said:

It’s gotta be a fun conversation at the PAC meetings, about the new contract and GOR. There are four teams that don’t want to be locked in because they hope for a call from the B10. There are four teams that would/could/should(?) jump to the B12. There are two teams that might have to go Mountain West. 
 
They either need a rock solid GOR or no GOR at all. It will be interesting to see how it shakes out. 

Twice they could have killed the Big 12 and chose not to.

[Hurtlocker 2213]

2 hours ago, Trojan Man said:

Seems to me like the cleanest way to give everyone something they want in finalizing the divorce between Texas/Oklahoma and the Big 12 is for ESPN to overpay for the Big 12's next TV contract, effectively paying their buyout for them.  Getting UT/OU to the SEC earlier seems like it would more than offset paying the Big 12 a little more than they're worth.

-The Big 12 gets a good contract

-UT/OU go to the SEC in 2023 instead of 2025

-ESPN gets a 1 year super conference head start on Fox/the Big 10 as opposed to Fox/the Big 10 getting a 1 year head start if UT/OU stay in the Big 12 until 2025

-ESPN owns 3 conferences, plus if they want more late night coverage without paying for the Pac 12 the Big 12 can likely poach whoever they want from the Pac 12 with their shiny new above-market contract

The only potential problem is CBS' contract with the SEC running through 2023.  They'd have to come to some kind of deal, like ESPN buying out CBS a year early or trading their 2023 Big 10 rights for CBS' 2023 SEC rights.  I'm not sure what the magic number would be to get the Big 12 to agree with this so I'll leave that to those more knowledgeable about the Big 12's media value.

The Big Ten's deal starts in 2023.   Best ESPN could do is match them.   

To make 2023 work, ESPN needs to buy out CBS's deal with the SEC.

To get Texas and OU to ESPN before 2025, ESPN either needs to pay out Fox AND the Big 12 for those rights, or they need to make 6-8 made for TV OOC games between Texas/OU and Big 12 members (like Bedlam) over two years (or promised into the future) that Fox gets.  

Edited September 1, 2022 by Hurtlocker

[TKthunder2 4992]

1 hour ago, Trojan Man said:

The only potential problem is CBS' contract with the SEC running through 2023.  They'd have to come to some kind of deal, like ESPN buying out CBS a year early or trading their 2023 Big 10 rights for CBS' 2023 SEC rights.  I'm not sure what the magic number would be to get the Big 12 to agree with this so I'll leave that to those more knowledgeable about the Big 12's media value.

How is that a problem? Let’s say we move over next year.

Texas/OU game will likely be on CBS, which means the next best game that would have been on CBS would flow down to ESPN. Hell, last year Alabama/aggy was the SEC game of the week that same weekend so maybe we still end up on ESPN.

Its not ideal but not a deal breaker. The synergy be better if they appeared on ESPN only but unless CBS agrees to sell those rights there isn’t much anyone can do.

They haven’t made the 2023 schedule so the SEC could easily schedule 2 big games on major weekends to keep ESPN happy.

Texas/Oklahoma can plays games against everyone in the league on opposite schedules in year 1.

Texas/UGA, OU/Florida, Texas/LSU, OU/Alabama, Texas/Auburn, OU/aggy

That is plenty of quality inventory ON TOP OF what the SEC already had.

Here was the 13 regular season CBS games last year (notable ESPN games in parentheses): *6 of the 13 CBS game are Bama games*

Alabama/Florida (SC/Georgia) *typically an OOC weekend*

aggy/Arkansas (Tennessee/Florida, LSU/MSU)

Ole Miss/Alabama (Arkansas/Georgia, Auburn/LSU, Kentucky/Florida)

Alabama/aggy (Arkansas/OleMiss) *Texas/OU week*

Kentucky/Georgia, Auburn/Arkansas (Alabama/MSU, Florida/LSU)

Tennessee/Alabama (LSU/OleMiss)

Florida/Georgia (OleMiss/Auburn)

Auburn/aggy (ESPN used its once a season override to get Alabama/LSU)

Georgia/Tennessee (aggy/OleMiss)

Arkansas/Alabama (Auburn/SC)

Auburn/Alabama, Mizzou/Arkansas (aggy/LSU, OleMiss/MSU)*Texas/aggy*

[Vertigo 20290]

5 hours ago, closetojumping said:

I can promise you that, unless something has changed in the last month, Burton has good reason to believe that the move is happening in 2024 and not sooner. I think he just misspoke.

Out of curiosity, when do the Big 12 and the SEC normally release their schedules for the future season? Do they normally wait this long to release the 2023 schedules for each team? 

Fair enough, he may have also meant at the end of next season. Either way he said it with a certainty of a guy who knows some things, then this news hit today. There is a pretty clear and logical path to a 2024 start date. Tv contracts, B1G realignment, etc all line up for a new look CFB in 2024.

[TKthunder2 4992]

2 minutes ago, Hurtlocker said:

The Big Ten's deal starts in 2023.   Best ESPN could do is match them.   

To make 2023 work, ESPN needs to buy out CBS's deal with the SEC.

To get Texas and OU to ESPN before 2025, ESPN either needs to pay out Fox AND the Big 12 for those rights, or they need to make made for TV OOC games between Texas/OU and Big 12 members (like Bedlam) that Fox gets.  

CBS might be motivated to sell the SEC right since it’ll have the Big Ten’s in 2023.

FOX could spur a breakup of the PAC by having the Big Ten take 4 and then the other 4 join the Big 12.

FOX locks up a deal with ESPN to share the Big 12’s rights providing both with good midday and late night inventory. ESPN gets UT/OU 2 years early in 2023 with buying SEC t1 rights from CBS, and FOX gets the 6 PAC12 members in the Big Ten a year early too. With the SEC/B1G and B12 all starting their new super conference lineup in 2023 leaving the realignment game stable, pending ND or an ACC GOR challenge.

This seems like it checks a lot of boxes for everyone (ESPN, FOX, CBS, B1G, SEC, B12) except for the PAC12-10 (Washington State and Oregon State).

[Hurtlocker 2213]

15 minutes ago, TKthunder2 said:

CBS might be motivated to sell the SEC right since it’ll have the Big Ten’s in 2023.

FOX could spur a breakup of the PAC by having the Big Ten take 4 and then the other 4 join the Big 12.

FOX locks up a deal with ESPN to share the Big 12’s rights providing both with good midday and late night inventory. ESPN gets UT/OU 2 years early in 2023 with buying SEC t1 rights from CBS, and FOX gets the 6 PAC12 members in the Big Ten a year early too. With the SEC/B1G and B12 all starting their new super conference lineup in 2023 leaving the realignment game stable, pending ND or an ACC GOR challenge.

This seems like it checks a lot of boxes for everyone (ESPN, FOX, CBS, B1G, SEC, B12) except for the PAC12-10 (Washington State and Oregon State).

I agree, its just a lot to work out in one year, when most of it goes away waiting a year.   

I'm also not convinced Fox wants 6 Pac members.   They could have done that already.   @Trojan Man could chime in on this better than me, but they're the power player with Fox.  My guess is they're putting all their efforts into Notre Dame, not Oregon.   And while I'm sure they'd be willing to let Notre Dame bring a friend from the West Coast, I'd be shocked if they wanted to reinvent the wheel.

 

[TKthunder2 4992]

16 minutes ago, Hurtlocker said:

I agree, its just a lot to work out in one year, when most of it goes away waiting a year.   

I'm also not convinced Fox wants 6 Pac members.   They could have done that already.   @Trojan Man could chime in on this better than me, but they're the power player with Fox.  My guess is they're putting all their efforts into Notre Dame, not Oregon.   And while I'm sure they'd be willing to let Notre Dame bring a friend from the West Coast, I'd be shocked if they wanted to reinvent the wheel.

 

Reports are that both Oregon and Washington have already met with the Big Ten about membership.

The Big Ten has publicly stated they are interested in Cal/Stanford 

ND values the Stanford/USC games and their relationship with NBC which now could all be done in the Big Ten conference and with their inclusion in the playoff expansion not certain (likely but not certain) this could be the lever that convinces them to join.

Adding just Stanford would be odd, Stanford and Washington would make sense but leaving out Oregon wouldn’t be the best TV play (which is what the Big Ten obviously cares about). Cal would win the lottery here but they’d help round out the numbers and give the presidents another big academic win.

The Big Ten’s new deal starts in 2023.  An invite to the 4 PAC schools with quick acceptance while the Big 12 is still negotiating their TV deal leaving them time to add in the 4corner schools would be tight but could conceivably this happen if done before November.

[Trojan Man 429]

1 hour ago, Hurtlocker said:

The Big Ten's deal starts in 2023.   Best ESPN could do is match them.   

To make 2023 work, ESPN needs to buy out CBS's deal with the SEC.

To get Texas and OU to ESPN before 2025, ESPN either needs to pay out Fox AND the Big 12 for those rights, or they need to make made for TV OOC games between Texas/OU and Big 12 members (like Bedlam) that Fox gets.  

Right, I forgot about the Fox/Big 12 part of the TV deal.  That throws a wrench into it, Fox won't just let Texas/Oklahoma walk away for nothing.  In 2023 Texas plays Alabama while Oklahoma has games with Georgia in 2023 and Tennessee in 2024.  Those could be canceled in exchange for Texas and Oklahoma playing Fox-owned road games against Big 12 teams, but that would probably piss off Alabama and Tennessee because they're getting screwed out of home games after already playing the road half of the home and home.  They would also be on short notice to find a replacement opponent.  Maybe they'd accept a one off home game against Big 12 teams as replacements for those canceled games.  I'd watch Baylor/Alabama and Kansas State/Tennessee and Oklahoma State/Georgia.

49 minutes ago, Hurtlocker said:

I agree, its just a lot to work out in one year, when most of it goes away waiting a year.   

I'm also not convinced Fox wants 6 Pac members.   They could have done that already.   @Trojan Man could chime in on this better than me, but they're the power player with Fox.  My guess is they're putting all their efforts into Notre Dame, not Oregon.   And while I'm sure they'd be willing to let Notre Dame bring a friend from the West Coast, I'd be shocked if they wanted to reinvent the wheel.

 

My two cents is if Fox/the Big 10 really wanted more Pac 12 teams at this time they'd already be invited.  If they were wanted right now Fox/the Big 10 wouldn't risk them signing a restrictive GOR elsewhere.  Plus, if you're going to bring them in it's better to announce sooner than later just to help them out.  Any Pac 12 teams receiving a Big 10 golden ticket would immediately see an uptick in recruiting and donations and they could start planning for future facilities built with Big 10 money, allowing them to be stronger when they join the conference.  As you mentioned, Stanford is the only Pac 12 team I can see getting a Big 10 invite in the near future and that's dependent on Notre Dame deciding to give up independence.  I expect the Big 10 to go with either 16 or 18 teams for the duration of the next TV contract, then explore adding from the Washington/Oregon/Utah/Cal/Arizona/Colorado pool when it's time to negotiate the next contract.

Of course, this could all be rendered moot if ACC teams find a way to escape the GOR in the next few years.  If that happens it moves up the endgame timeline and all bets are off.  The Big 10 can't slow play ACC teams like they can with Pac 12 teams because there will be serious competition with the SEC for the ACC's crown jewels.

[hawkfan 60]

I don't get 4 + ND, not sure how you make 21 work:

3 plus ND seems like the obvious stopping point until the ACC is able to be dismantled.

I hate the idea of Cal and Stanford.  Cal doesn't get you anything you don't already get with Stanford in my view.

I don't see how anything beyond 24 is workable from a scheduling standpoint, and I'd think you would want a minimum of 4 schools out of the ACC.

Edited September 1, 2022 by hawkfan

[Al_4_ISU 12464]

2 hours ago, hawkfan said:

I don't get 4 + ND, not sure how you make 21 work:

3 plus ND seems like the obvious stopping point until the ACC is able to be dismantled.

I hate the idea of Cal and Stanford.  Cal doesn't get you anything you don't already get with Stanford in my view.

I don't see how anything beyond 24 is workable from a scheduling standpoint, and I'd think you would want a minimum of 4 schools out of the ACC.

You made 11 work for a decade.

I think it makes more sense to leave Cal or Stanford behind and take Oregon, Washington, ND.  Or if ND says no, just take Oregon and Washington and wait to grab a few ACC schools when that's over.

Assuming the Big 10 and Big 12 end up with most of what's currently in the Pac 12, I see the ACC getting split 3 ways down the road with 4 southern schools (FSU, Miami, Clemson, NCSU) going to the SEC, a couple schools (UNC/UVA?) in the Big 10, and maybe 4 (Pitt, Louisville, GA Tech, VA Tech ) in the Big 12.

[Al_4_ISU 12464]

One thing I think is abundantly clear in light of yesterday:  The reason that ESPN didn't want to open negotiations with the Big 12 in 2020 was because they knew UT and OU were already in with the SEC and it was pointless to do so, because no one knew where the Big 12 was going from there.

It wasn't because they didn't think there was value.  It was because they had no idea what they would be actually be bidding on.

Edited September 1, 2022 by Al_4_ISU

[closetohumping 17449]

8 minutes ago, Al_4_ISU said:

One thing I think is abundantly clear in light of yesterday:  The reason that ESPN didn't want to open negotiations with the Big 12 in 2020 was because they knew UT and OU were already in with the SEC and it was pointless to do so, because no one knew where the Big 12 was going from there.

It wasn't because they didn't think there was value.  It was because they had no idea what they would be actually be bidding on.

Thought I had read that they told Joe C there wouldnt be a big bump in negotations

 

I’m not sure cal is a strong add but they do give the LA schools a closer game, also locks up the Bay Area and maybe they know ND will say no?

 

[Deej 76830]

3 hours ago, hawkfan said:

I don't get 4 + ND, not sure how you make 21 work:

Dump Nebraska. 

[statsman 5472]

9 hours ago, Hurtlocker said:

Twice they could have killed the Big 12 and chose not to.

Great point. As I recall, when the PAC-16 idea hit rough waters (Ags backed out, legislature tried to insert Baylor, LHN became an issue), rather than working through the issues piece by piece (let the Horns and Ags work the legislature to let them go their respective ways while keeping Baylor out, let Texas roll the LHN into PAC net, improving both), Larry Scott just dropped it, saying it wasn’t worth it. Larry Scott had to be the most disastrous conference leader ever. 

[Al_4_ISU 12464]

11 minutes ago, closetohumping said:

Thought I had read that they told Joe C there wouldnt be a big bump in negotations

 

I’m not sure cal is a strong add but they do give the LA schools a closer game, also locks up the Bay Area and maybe they know ND will say no?

 

I'm sure that's the company line, but a move like that (especially as well concealed as it was) takes time.  

Obviously we'll probably never know, but the way they went from "we have no interest" with the two bluebloods in the mix, to being pretty interested 2 years later after those blue bloods left, and they were back filled with 4 decent schools who don't bring those kind of eyeballs, seems odd.

I think that ESPN, the SEC, OU, and UT already had things in motion and wanted a good excuse.  This was the thing that Texas and Oklahoma could point to and say "see?  We HAD to do it."  And now ESPN will end up with a more blue blood heavy SEC, and a solid, cheaper Big 12 that can give them fairly high interest content at a lower price point than the SEC.

[closetohumping 17449]

12 minutes ago, statsman said:

Great point. As I recall, when the PAC-16 idea hit rough waters (Ags backed out, legislature tried to insert Baylor, LHN became an issue), rather than working through the issues piece by piece (let the Horns and Ags work the legislature to let them go their respective ways while keeping Baylor out, let Texas roll the LHN into PAC net, improving both), Larry Scott just dropped it, saying it wasn’t worth it. Larry Scott had to be the most disastrous conference leader ever. 

Sense I got was ou had approached the pac to join without us but Larry was worried about that forcing our hand.  He fucked up for sure

[Al_4_ISU 12464]

I thought the Pac 16 got scuttled because ESPN just money whipped UT and OU into staying in the Big 12 for another decade, at the last minute?

That's how I remember it going down anyhow.

My guess is they were already thinking ahead to moving them to the SEC, and it was going to be easier to do that if they got them to stay in the Big 12 for the present, and then spent the next decade attacking that conference's image and intentionally undervaluing it publicly.  Which provided UT and OU a lot of motivation to leave.

Edited September 1, 2022 by Al_4_ISU

[TKthunder2 4992]

Original PAC16 deal with aggy got blown up because of aggy and ESPN gave Texas the LHN.

Second PAC16 when aggy left for the SEC got blown up because Scott and Stanford didn’t want to deal with the LHN and ESPN/FOX agreed to pay the Big12 the same money they were paying for 12 teams for 10 (meaning everyone got a raise).

Oklahoma approached the B1G, PAC, and SEC solo and with OSU occasionally in tow but no one was interested.

The 2016 attempted expansion never occurred because no one of value would increase the existing conference member’s TV money.  They would pay the new team the same money but the 10 wouldn’t see a penny more.  They got ESPN/FOX to give them more money for the CCG and if they agreed to nullify the clause that required ESPN/FOX to contractually pay any new member the same rate.  In addition, no other members wanted to give up playing UT/OU annually in order to play Houston or BYU.

Trying to open the deals in 2020 wasn’t profitable to ESPN or FOX they had already given the Big 12 a pair of raises over the life of the current contract. Paying them more before they saw what the SEC/B1G deals were occurring wouldn’t have been a great business move.

[Al_4_ISU 12464]

Right, so ESPN made it worth Texas and Oklahoma's while to stay put at that juncture in time.

I think they were already thinking ahead to where we are now, and suspected it would be easier to get Texas and OU out of the 10 team Big 12 and into the SEC than it would be to get them out of the Pac 16.  Especially if they openly waged war on the 10 team Big 12 in the court of public perception over the course of the contract, which they absolutely did.

[statsman 5472]

18 minutes ago, TKthunder2 said:

 

Oklahoma approached the B1G, PAC, and SEC solo and with OSU occasionally in tow but no one was interested.

CSB: I watched the 2019 RRS at a Sooner’s house, with a bunch of Sooners. In short order they started explaining to me that OU was leaving for the SEC, and that no other conference would want Texas because of the LHN. I thought, to myself, that Bellmont would shut down the LHN before letting it keep Texas from doing what it wanted, but I kept it to myself. I figured the Ag presence in the SEC would keep us from there, but figured any other conference would be thrilled to pick up Texas and its followers. 

I also felt they were overstating the Sooners’ attractiveness in expansion. Sure, they win a lot, but they have to recruit out of state, and they will do whatever it takes. Why would a collection of programs in a conference want to add a school that will beat them with players it recruited from their own regions? Kind of like the Oregon issue. 

Edited September 1, 2022 by statsman

[statsman 5472]

11 minutes ago, Al_4_ISU said:

Right, so ESPN made it worth Texas and Oklahoma's while to stay put at that juncture in time.

I think they were already thinking ahead to where we are now, and suspected it would be easier to get Texas and OU out of the 10 team Big 12 and into the SEC than it would be to get them out of the Pac 16.  Especially if they openly waged war on the 10 team Big 12 in the court of public perception over the course of the contract, which they absolutely did.

I think you are dramatically overestimating the planning that networks do. Twelve years is two college president terms at most universities, and three management turnovers at networks. 

[Al_4_ISU 12464]

3 minutes ago, statsman said:

I think you are dramatically overestimating the planning that networks do. Twelve years is two college president terms at most universities, and three management turnovers at networks. 

Maybe hindsight makes it all look like some smooth masterplan, but I remember there being a lot of talk that there was still some further consolidated end game as all of that was happening.  It's hard not to think that this wasn't some executive's wet dream going all the way back to that point in time.

[utee94 15832]

3 minutes ago, Al_4_ISU said:

Maybe hindsight makes it all look like some smooth masterplan, but I remember there being a lot of talk that there was still some further consolidated end game as all of that was happening.  It's hard not to think that this wasn't some executive's wet dream going all the way back to that point in time.

You're not wrong.  There was a ton of speculation at the time, that this was precisely ESPN's plan, and here we are a decade later and that's exactly how it turned out.

Could be coincidence.  We'll likely never know for sure, unless some retired ESPN executive decides to write a book about it in a few years. 

[hawkfan 60]

1 hour ago, Al_4_ISU said:

Assuming the Big 10 and Big 12 end up with most of what's currently in the Pac 12, I see the ACC getting split 3 ways down the road with 4 southern schools (FSU, Miami, Clemson, NCSU) going to the SEC, a couple schools (UNC/UVA?) in the Big 10, and maybe 4 (Pitt, Louisville, GA Tech, VA Tech ) in the Big 12.

Pretty much agree, I think the B1G will prioritize getting into all of NC, VA, GA, & FL - you can do that with UNC/UVA/Ga Tec/Miami.

24 would work pretty good for the B1G - you could go to 4 divisions of 6 and play 11 conference games where the divisions just rotate each year and that's how you determine the conference championship game participants.  You could keep the divisions pretty geographical and preserve rivalries too.

EDIT:  I could also see the SEC grabbing Duke, Va Tech, Clemson, & FSU - half for content, half for new states (and Brand, in the case of Duke).

Edited September 1, 2022 by hawkfan

[closetohumping 17449]

46 minutes ago, Al_4_ISU said:

I thought the Pac 16 got scuttled because ESPN just money whipped UT and OU into staying in the Big 12 for another decade, at the last minute?

That's how I remember it going down anyhow.

My guess is they were already thinking ahead to moving them to the SEC, and it was going to be easier to do that if they got them to stay in the Big 12 for the present, and then spent the next decade attacking that conference's image and intentionally undervaluing it publicly.  Which provided UT and OU a lot of motivation to leave.

I don’t remember the timing but I do remember David boren saying ou was nobody’s tag along and they reached out to Larry Scott without us.   Who knows what was really happening behind the scenes

[Hiphopopotamos 20875]

So I guess Oregon St and Washington St are about to get fucked? Mountain West seems like the most likely destination (I know nothing about the conference or its future plans - but seems to make the most sense geographically).  The Athletic had an article about the AAC being an option - and they have a slightly better TV deal than the Mountain West - but that just doesn't seem like it would make much sense.  Going from 35 million a year payout to 5 is a real dick punch for those universities and the towns they reside in.

[Horn of Gabriel 1616]

11 minutes ago, Hiphopopotamos said:

So I guess Oregon St and Washington St are about to get fucked? Mountain West seems like the most likely destination (I know nothing about the conference or its future plans - but seems to make the most sense geographically).  The Athletic had an article about the AAC being an option - and they have a slightly better TV deal than the Mountain West - but that just doesn't seem like it would make much sense.  Going from 35 million a year payout to 5 is a real dick punch for those universities and the towns they reside in.

Yeah they'll be dropping lots of Olympic sports soon.

[Al_4_ISU 12464]

20 minutes ago, Hiphopopotamos said:

So I guess Oregon St and Washington St are about to get fucked? Mountain West seems like the most likely destination (I know nothing about the conference or its future plans - but seems to make the most sense geographically).  The Athletic had an article about the AAC being an option - and they have a slightly better TV deal than the Mountain West - but that just doesn't seem like it would make much sense.  Going from 35 million a year payout to 5 is a real dick punch for those universities and the towns they reside in.

I feel really bad for those fanbases as I've sat in their shoes at least 3 or 4 times accepting that it's all over - and TBH I'll never feel like we're fully out of the woods.  They're tiny (current combined capacity of both stadiums is smaller than Jack Trice), but they're passionate.  I was at the Alamo Bowl when ISU played Wazzu, and everyone of them I talked to was good people.

I wouldn't mind them ending up in the Big 12 at all, if the networks allow it, but that seems unlikely.

The Mountain West could make out like a bandit in all of this, and I could see them forming a G5 super league where they pull in SMU, Memphis, and those 2 former Pac 12 schools.

Edited September 1, 2022 by Al_4_ISU

[Trojan Man 429]

40 minutes ago, Hiphopopotamos said:

So I guess Oregon St and Washington St are about to get fucked? Mountain West seems like the most likely destination (I know nothing about the conference or its future plans - but seems to make the most sense geographically).  The Athletic had an article about the AAC being an option - and they have a slightly better TV deal than the Mountain West - but that just doesn't seem like it would make much sense.  Going from 35 million a year payout to 5 is a real dick punch for those universities and the towns they reside in.

Their best case scenario is the Pac survives with at least its current 10 members for one more TV contract.  Both athletic departments (especially Washington State) have a lot of debt which was structured under the assumption they'd continue pulling in Pac 12 checks indefinitely, so you can imagine the sleepless nights for their athletic directors when imagining what they'll do if they have to put together a budget on a MWC media deal.  If they can continue earning in the neighborhood of 30ish million, a realistic goal for the Pac 10 if they keep equal revenue shares, they can spend the rest of the 2020s aggressively paying down that debt and planning for their eventual MWC membership.  If the Pac dies in 2024 both schools will have to beg their state governments for a bailout unless a wealthy donor steps in to save the day, but those are not fanbases known for wealthy donors.

[Richard Kimball 1495]

@Trojan Man has personal animosity towards Oregon, and ...

Oregon had no real history that anyone cared about until Phil Knight got involved. Over the last thirty years, he's dumped around a billion dollars into the school. Not all of it was football, but that's a lot of money. Knight's 84 now. He may make some kind of trust for Oregon, but as he moves out of the picture, it's hard to imagine someone else with his competence in marketing giving enough of a damn about Oregon to keep pushing them. 

Oregon is a case study of the limitations of money and astroturfing support for a college program. That billion dollars got Oregon a higher profile, but IMHO, Oregon has reached a peak, and that was with a verified marketing genius doing everything he could to make them one of the college elite. It is most likely downhill from here. 

Edited September 1, 2022 by Richard Kimball

[TKthunder2 4992]

I feel semi-bad for Washington State.  The more you look at the numbers and how competitive they’ve been it’s not a great feeling to see them get demoted out of a Big 4 conference.

I’ve honestly wondered if the Big 12 would somehow try to get Wazzu into the conference.  The Big 12 100% needs Colorado, one Arizona school, and Utah as the best remaining.  The 2nd Arizona school versus Washington State isn’t clear which is better.

Washington State- small market but new region for the Big 12, best football of the 3

Arizona - flagship AAU with good basketball, has been better recently than ASU in football and baseball 

Arizona State - huge enrollment in major metro, has slightly better history than Zona in football and baseball

Who knows maybe the Big 12 goes to 20 with the 4 corners, Wazzu, Boise, SDSU, and Memphis.

I feel no pity for Oregon State.  Other than the Beavers being a great college team name and their baseball team nothing else about them is memorable.  They (like the dregs of the super conferences) were given a golden ticket for decades and have done jack shit with it.

[Hurtlocker 2213]

2 hours ago, TKthunder2 said:

Original PAC16 deal with aggy got blown up because of aggy and ESPN gave Texas the LHN.

Second PAC16 when aggy left for the SEC got blown up because Scott and Stanford didn’t want to deal with the LHN and ESPN/FOX agreed to pay the Big12 the same money they were paying for 12 teams for 10 (meaning everyone got a raise).

Oklahoma approached the B1G, PAC, and SEC solo and with OSU occasionally in tow but no one was interested.

The 2016 attempted expansion never occurred because no one of value would increase the existing conference member’s TV money.  They would pay the new team the same money but the 10 wouldn’t see a penny more.  They got ESPN/FOX to give them more money for the CCG and if they agreed to nullify the clause that required ESPN/FOX to contractually pay any new member the same rate.  In addition, no other members wanted to give up playing UT/OU annually in order to play Houston or BYU.

Trying to open the deals in 2020 wasn’t profitable to ESPN or FOX they had already given the Big 12 a pair of raises over the life of the current contract. Paying them more before they saw what the SEC/B1G deals were occurring wouldn’t have been a great business move.

With the Pac, they could have moved with Texas, Tech, OU, OkSt, and Kansas to get to 16, prior to Utah.   LHN isn't as huge of a deal when you have 16 teams.    In the Pac model you could have had a regional with those 5 teams and had Dallas/KC in the mix and I'm guessing with Cali and Texas you'd get a DirecTV deal.   You'd still have all the prime Texas rights, which would bolster your TV contracts and you wouldn't have to pay them for T3.   Someone just couldn't sell to the brass that you'd make more over all splitting the big money 16 ways and the small money 15.   Pretty sure LHN came out of that mess though too, there was a moment where the Pac was talking before the network deal was in place, I just can't remember how big of a window that was.

As for the Big 12, they didn't really get much of a raise.   They had been selling 48 games with 8 conference games.   Moving to 9 let them sell 45.    You can make that up with inflation.

[TKthunder2 4992]

23 minutes ago, Richard Kimball said:

@Trojan Man has personal animosity towards Oregon, and ...

Oregon had no real history that anyone cared about until Phil Knight got involved. Over the last thirty years, he's dumped around a billion dollars into the school. Not all of it was football, but that's a lot of money. Knight's 84 now. He may make some kind of trust for Oregon, but as he moves out of the picture, it's hard to imagine someone else with his competence in marketing giving enough of a damn about Oregon to keep pushing them. 

Oregon is a case study of the limitations of money and astroturfing support for a college program. That billion dollars got Oregon a higher profile, but IMHO, Oregon has reached a peak, and that was with a verified marketing genius doing everything he could to make them one of the college elite. It is most likely downhill from here. 

Oregon is currently punching above their weight class. Completely agree. They (like Washington) are similar to Wisconsin in B1G or Auburn (minus the titles) in the SEC. No one considers them a blue blood or even close to it, but to say they have no value due to their weak history is not logical.

For their programs size, history, and few achievements they have great brand awareness and recognition.  When they play big games they get ratings. 538’s analysis has Oregon, Washington, North Carolina, and Florida State as the top 4 teams not in the B1G/SEC/ND.

Have they peaked?  Maybe, but worst case scenario the B1G has added 2 teams in the growing PNW that together will completely dominate that market.  Add in Stanford and they’d have the whole West Coast locked down which is extremely valuable for TV.

Give the Big 12 Oregon, Cal, Wazzu, SDSU, Boise, Utah, BYU, Colorado the Arizona schools and they could realistically challenge the B1G with just USC, UCLA, Stanford, and Washington in those markets especially when USC is underperforming.  Pull Oregon and Cal into the B1G and any ‘challenge’ would be theoretical at best.

USC is butthurt about Oregon stealing their recruits while they’ve been struggling but not nearly as butthurt about Stanford handicapping their conference for decades by squashing every attempt to expand with Texas over the years.

Stanford is also a smaller school that doesn’t have a huge fan base and has also been punching above their weight class. But Stanford didn’t steal USC’s recruits, and Oregon did, so fuck Oregon, am I right?

['stache 21819]

2 hours ago, Al_4_ISU said:

I thought the Pac 16 got scuttled because ESPN just money whipped UT and OU into staying in the Big 12 for another decade, at the last minute?

That's how I remember it going down anyhow.

My guess is they were already thinking ahead to moving them to the SEC, and it was going to be easier to do that if they got them to stay in the Big 12 for the present, and then spent the next decade attacking that conference's image and intentionally undervaluing it publicly.  Which provided UT and OU a lot of motivation to leave.

Not so much OU, they gave UT the LHN money to keep them from joining the then Fox dominated PAC. The move wouldn't happen with just OU and friends, UT was the big fish. The deal could have easily replaced aggy with KU or Utah.