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Realignment talk not going away

The Tower

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Posted by Sandbagging Steve,

How many teams will be left when the dust settles in a few years? I think there's a way for all the teams to still have some involvement. I will explain that at the end of this list. Here's my list of the top 32 programs and a list if it goes to 48. There's some debate if it goes to 48, but not much debate if it stops at 32. I guess one could debate Arizona State, but that's about it. The top 32 at least come close to carrying their own weight. Everyone below that line is losing money for t

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Aggy should abstain so the vote is 13-0 and then we can then brand it on their dog.

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camel at sea

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6 hours ago, Trey3216 said:

They built a 35k seat stadium, not a 50k seat stadium.   

Apparently it's expandable to 55K though.  https://www.forbes.com/sites/timnewcomb/2022/08/29/san-diego-state-opening-true-home-field-advantage-at-new-snapdragon-stadium/?sh=600d656a21ca

I was surprised to learn that they averaged 11K+ in men's basketball last year.  

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LTbear

LTbear 4171

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Posted (edited)
52 minutes ago, oSuJeff97 said:

Sure it is.

Also nice: not being associated with a school synonymous with covering up rape and murder.

Glad you agree. 'Tis indeed.

Ok, then I'll just claim my Berkeley (PhD) and Stanford (fellowship) associations, and claim my Baylor association while the football team is busy winning championships. 

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LTbear

LTbear 4171

Posted
Posted
Just now, SimonBolivar said:

Yeah I'll claim my grad school of Nebraska at Kearney...well maybe not.

I know nothing about Kearney, but just looking at a map, I don't know how you survived that. I'd go crazy without access to hike/ camp/ climb worthy landscapes. I was lucky to have that in Boulder (MS) and within driving distance while in the Bay (though traffic out there could be a soul crusher).

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SimonBolivar

SimonBolivar 10958

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1 minute ago, LTbear said:

I know nothing about Kearney, but just looking at a map, I don't know how you survived that. I'd go crazy without access to hike/ camp/ climb worthy landscapes. I was lucky to have that in Boulder (MS) and within driving distance while in the Bay (though traffic out there could be a soul crusher).

Fortunately, I've never been to Nebraska. They just happened to have the online program I was interested in.

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LTbear

LTbear 4171

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Posted
5 minutes ago, Al_4_ISU said:

Rural Kearney:  https://goo.gl/maps/voHUfLAtx3ZWEr4F7

Rural Waco:  https://goo.gl/maps/RPKYK5i27Rx8p5Gg9

Oh let me be clear, I went to Baylor because it was cheap (I was working FT through undergrad to pay my bills and in Waco I lived in a 1BR apt across the street from campus for $400/ month) and because it was close to family (dad was dying). In GRAD school, when I had a bit more choice, went for the "where would I actually like to live for the next several years" approach.

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LTbear

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Posted
4 minutes ago, Al_4_ISU said:

I wish I could see a CyHawk W tomorrow, but alas...

I watch that game every year, and I always root for ISU; even I have been frustrated by how some of those games go. I imagine you've damn near broken TVs over it. Thank god for beer eh.

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'stache

'stache 21825

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Posted
Just now, LTbear said:

I watch that game every year, and I always root for ISU; even I have been frustrated by how some of those games go. I imagine you've damn near broken TVs over it. Thank god for beer eh.

Yup, a lot of similarities with Bedlam, they always find dumb lucky ways to fuck with us. I was almost certain it was going to happen again last year when Caleb Williams had that long run in the 4th and a good throw to the endzone, but we managed to hold on, somehow.

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SimonBolivar

SimonBolivar 10958

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Posted
Just now, 'stache said:

I think Central Texas is considered the Hill Country around Austin. Waco is further north and looks very different.

Waco is transitiony. The east where Al showed is very plains like whereas west of downtown is more hill country especially on the river in Cameron Park. The crazy inhabit both sides of town though. I think we should lean into the Derry, ME of Texas comparison.

 

 

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LTbear

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2 minutes ago, 'stache said:

Yup, a lot of similarities with Bedlam, they always find dumb lucky ways to fuck with us. I was almost certain it was going to happen again last year when Caleb Williams had that long run in the 4th and a good throw to the endzone, but we managed to hold on, somehow.

Bedlam was awesome last year. And yes, I thought y'all were gonna do the same thing again. As OU was driving I was just thinking "well fuck" but then that crawling on the ground shoestring ack was awesome. 

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LTbear

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Posted
3 minutes ago, SimonBolivar said:

Waco is transitiony. The east where Al showed is very plains like whereas west of downtown is more hill country especially on the river in Cameron Park. The crazy inhabit both sides of town though. I think we should lean into the Derry, ME of Texas comparison.

 

 

Ya Cameron Park was surprisingly nice

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Trojan Man

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2 minutes ago, Gidnik said:

Anyone have access?

 

 

I do.  That link goes to a 69 page realignment thread on Arizona's 247 board, dating back to a few days after the USC/UCLA to the Big 10 news broke.  I don't know how connected he is, but this is the Arizona 247 guy and he seems to be credible with their fans as knowing what he is talking about.  On page 68, about 90 minutes ago, he said "Last i heard, the Big 12 believes it will be making about $10 million more per school than the Pac-12. It is likely working to get a television deal to actually show Pac-12 schools those numbers."

The other recent posts are posters reacting to that and one guy who thinks there is no way the Big 12 will get more money than the Pac 12.  Most of the other posters disagree with that guy and want Arizona to leave for the Big 12 ASAP if they do end up getting that much more money than the Pac 12.  Lots of arguments using ass-pulled media valuations for the Pac 12 and Big 12 schools and other such speculation, but for the most part the Arizona fans sound eager to join the Big 12.

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Al_4_ISU

Al_4_ISU 12473

Posted
Posted (edited)
57 minutes ago, 'stache said:

I think Central Texas is considered the Hill Country around Austin. Waco is further north and looks very different.

I wouldn't conflate the Hill Country with Waco.  I'm using the term "central Texas" loosely, but Waco is kinda close to being in the middle of the state (like Kearney in Nebraska).

Edited by Al_4_ISU
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Deej

Deej 76858

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On 9/7/2022 at 12:03 PM, statsman said:

Sure. Let’s look at Baylor. Phil Steele is a handy guide, showing schedules back to 2017. In thatseven year period, Baylor has played a home and home with one P5 team- Duke. 

TCU, in that period, did play one P5 team. Good news- it was Ohio State. Bad news- it was a one off, at Jerryworld, to provide a recruiting showcase for the Buckeyes. 😂

KSU played Stanford last year in a similar Arlington one off. And they played a series against one P5 team- Vanderbilt. 
 
Kansas, of course, played Rutgers and Duke. 
 
The Big 12 has a real problem with free riders looking for someone else to raise the league profile, so they can take advantage with a good record in conference play (after scheduling three wins in non conference). 

Big 12 schools aside from Texas and OU, historically...

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SimonBolivar

SimonBolivar 10958

Posted
Posted (edited)
7 minutes ago, Al_4_ISU said:

  I'm using the term "central Texas" loosely

We do too. When I hear Central Texas my first thought is of Temple-Killeen, but people use it to mean Austin all the time and there are plenty of Waco companies that use it even if we use "Heart of Texas" more often.

 

Central Texas Stampede - Wikipedia

CenTex Barracudas - Wikipedia

Central Texas Blackhawks - National Sports Services

 

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Hurtlocker

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Posted
Posted
45 minutes ago, Trojan Man said:

I do.  That link goes to a 69 page realignment thread on Arizona's 247 board, dating back to a few days after the USC/UCLA to the Big 10 news broke.  I don't know how connected he is, but this is the Arizona 247 guy and he seems to be credible with their fans as knowing what he is talking about.  On page 68, about 90 minutes ago, he said "Last i heard, the Big 12 believes it will be making about $10 million more per school than the Pac-12. It is likely working to get a television deal to actually show Pac-12 schools those numbers."

The other recent posts are posters reacting to that and one guy who thinks there is no way the Big 12 will get more money than the Pac 12.  Most of the other posters disagree with that guy and want Arizona to leave for the Big 12 ASAP if they do end up getting that much more money than the Pac 12.  Lots of arguments using ass-pulled media valuations for the Pac 12 and Big 12 schools and other such speculation, but for the most part the Arizona fans sound eager to join the Big 12.

Without LA, I'm still not sure why Colorado and AZ wouldn't want games in Texas.

$10m per school doesn't seem far fetched, especially if they are on the positive side of excess inventory.   The Pac10 is going to have the same issues the Big 12 had at 10, first and foremost is there isn't anything to put on the Pac 12 Networks any more.   Cal, ASU, Colorado, and AZ or Utah could drive growth in all tiers of the media deal above that.   They're not hitting SEC/Big Ten levels, but they could be 20-30% behind instead of 50+ 

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camel at sea

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1 hour ago, Trojan Man said:

I do.  That link goes to a 69 page realignment thread on Arizona's 247 board, dating back to a few days after the USC/UCLA to the Big 10 news broke.  I don't know how connected he is, but this is the Arizona 247 guy and he seems to be credible with their fans as knowing what he is talking about.  On page 68, about 90 minutes ago, he said "Last i heard, the Big 12 believes it will be making about $10 million more per school than the Pac-12. It is likely working to get a television deal to actually show Pac-12 schools those numbers."

The other recent posts are posters reacting to that and one guy who thinks there is no way the Big 12 will get more money than the Pac 12.  Most of the other posters disagree with that guy and want Arizona to leave for the Big 12 ASAP if they do end up getting that much more money than the Pac 12.  Lots of arguments using ass-pulled media valuations for the Pac 12 and Big 12 schools and other such speculation, but for the most part the Arizona fans sound eager to join the Big 12.

If Arizona can snag 1) $10M more per year, and 2) a *much* better home for their basketball program, I don't know why they wouldn't jump at that.  I'm not sure which of the other "Four Corners" schools blinks first to go with them, though.  Colorado probably *should* but their academic side and donors seems pretty reluctant.  

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'stache

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Posted (edited)
6 minutes ago, camel at sea said:

If Arizona can snag 1) $10M more per year, and 2) a *much* better home for their basketball program, I don't know why they wouldn't jump at that.  I'm not sure which of the other "Four Corners" schools blinks first to go with them, though.  Colorado probably *should* but their academic side and donors seems pretty reluctant.  

It still seems to me that the appeal of the PAC was primarily LA, which is now gone. I know its a good school but if they think Stanford and Cal are their academic peers, their out of their damn minds. And I forsee a future where Cal and Stanford are in the BIG, so there goes California in total. If the idea is still out there of teams scheduling one-off games in LA, it can happen just as easily as members of the Big XII. 

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redswingline

redswingline 1057

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On 9/7/2022 at 7:28 AM, ermahgerdhorn said:

 if that doesn't change the SEC will have to relegate some members to make it fair to the producing schools. 
 

I don't see any of your scenarios happening. Based on history, the SEC isn't kicking out anyone so that the per-school revenue increases for the remaining schools. It won't be going down the uneven revenue distribution path, either.

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Loose Stool

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Posted

Here is kind of a summary of what was said:

Quote

I'm sure I will be tied to a stake from P12 lovers, but this is what is being said in B12 country today:

1. It was a shrewd maneuver by the B12 to "cut in line" on the media renegotiation process. This has been discussed on this board by many. But, what is interesting is that what might be purposed by both sides is an "extension" of the current contract pro rata. That means that it is the same current per team payout (OU/UT gone) and BYU, UC, UH, UCF in. Plus the annual % increase (I think it is 3-4% but not confirmed). PLUS a pro rata increase for certain Pac-12 schools. The extension would be "short term" and end a year before or at same time as Big Ten's new contract.

2. I was told "there is no way the B12 would go to market early if they didn't have an advantage to do so... the number 1 priority of the new regime is to stay #3 in P5 pecking order after UT/OU leave. They will aggressively try to do so."

3. Leverage - the B12 actually has some. Right now but not later: ESPN and the LHN and TX/OU to the SEC. TX/OU want out and the B12 really wants them gone too. But, for a price. The "Irate 8" want to be paid for what TX/OU did, plus they want stability and a future. If ESPN were to "make the leftovers whole" then UT/OU can wiggle out early. But, the B12 would want the LHN as the B12 (maybe a stretch w/out western expansion)*, the continued tie-in w/ the Sugar Bowl and SEC, the continued tie-in w/ SEC/Big 12 Basketball challenge on ESPN, a long-term annual contract of OSU/OU and TTU/UT for all sports, etc.

4. ESPN and basketball. What hasn't been discussed much is that ESPN just lost Big Ten basketball (w/ the current contract as it stands). This opens up a lot of ET/CT inventory of good basketball games. Think B12. I've heard that basketball is going to be a bigger driver due to the loss of inventory. Add 4 MT schools, and ESPECIALLY Arizona, and there is good content to fill in the loss of the Big Ten hoops. No one stays up for PT weekday basketball games, but a combo of MT with ET and CT - that is a winning ticket. Luckily for basketball season, AZ is in MT. That is huge.

5. Why do you care? Well, many believe that the B12 is going to go to AZ and Utah and offer up $10-12m more annually on tv alone. That assumes the current B12 tv extension pro rata with current % annual escalators. Outside of TV money, the B12 will pitch stability, basketball (for AZ), more engaged football fans and CT/ET games, larger payouts from Bowl games and b-ball tourney, etc. Plus, the ability to market the conference from Orlando to Phoenix. If those two agree, ASU and CU will follow. Or, it will allow B12 to dangle to Oregon and Washington and push for B1G to react one way or the other. (My opinion is that Warren and Yormark are working together on a way to get this done.)

Sorry for the long post, I've enjoyed lurking and reading the opinions here and want to share what is being said in B12 country. *This is coming from B12 office (I live in Dallas) and Texas Tech & Baylor "insiders" 

 

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Trojan Man

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16 minutes ago, Gidnik said:

i just dont see how 10 million a year would be enough for anyone to move conferences unless they are including the 3rd tier rights in the 10 million which could end up being 20 mil per year

For Arizona they aren't just getting another 10 million out of it (and it's important to point out that is a more meaningful raise for them than it would be for Texas or USC).  There are other benefits, like stability and better football and better basketball and recruiting opportunities.

Oregon and Washington are publicly doing everything they can to get into the Big 10.  That puts the rest of the conference at Kevin Warren's mercy because it's lights out for the Pac 10 if those two leave.  If Arizona leaves for the Big 12 now they control their own destiny and they have some leverage with the Big 12 as opposed to waiting for Oregon/Washington/Warren to force them into a desperation move.  The Big 12 has much higher quality football than the Pac 10 and more schools that give a shit about winning, which should be a boost for Arizona's program.  They made a good hire and they have some NIL backing, they're on an upward trajectory.  The Big 12 is the best basketball conference.  That doesn't mean much in the grand scheme of things but I can see why it's attractive to a basketball school.  They'll love playing more of their basketball games at a time most of the country can watch on a network people have instead of being relegated to constant 10-11 PM ET Pac 12 Network tipoffs.  They can replace their California recruiting pipelines (which is entirely LA/Southern California so kiss that goodbye whether they're Big 12 or Pac 10) with new Texas pipelines.  I can't find a reason for Arizona to stay in the Pac 10.  Even the travel isn't that much worse.  Tucson to Seattle is 1221 miles in the air, Tucson to Ames is 982 miles (farther than Tucson to any Big 12 TX school) and Tucson to Morgantown is 1797 miles.

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Gidnik

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Posted
1 hour ago, statsman said:

Question- if the Big 12 tier 3 rights have value over a few million per year, per team- why hasn’t the conference developed a Big 12 network? Instead of just bitching about the LHN?

Because it’s easier to bitch and blame Texas for everything than it is to do the work and make the network 

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TKthunder2

TKthunder2 4995

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, statsman said:

Question- if the Big 12 tier 3 rights have value over a few million per year, per team- why hasn’t the conference developed a Big 12 network? Instead of just bitching about the LHN?

Because no one watches and the other states don’t have the population to support the old cable subscriber model, so it wasn’t a feasible venture for ESPN/FOX to shoulder all the start up costs, AND then rest of the conference declined to invest in the idea before Nebraska left and the LHN was created.  

The Big 12 got ESPN+ and now they want to leverage that into a traditional channel via the LHN which already has a head start on distribution.  It’s a money grab for the Big 12 and a way ESPN might be able to leverage some already sunk distribution/production costs in the LHN. If that the magic deal that gets us out of this conference asap then it could be a win-win-win scenario despite the irony.

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Hurtlocker

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Posted
2 hours ago, statsman said:

Question- if the Big 12 tier 3 rights have value over a few million per year, per team- why hasn’t the conference developed a Big 12 network? Instead of just bitching about the LHN?

Not enough content.   LHN is a brand build, its not how you'd want to build a conference network.   Go look at the SECN or BTN, they are full of football games all day, sometimes on overflow channels.   All the Big 12 has had to offer is 1 football game each and about 3-5 basketball games, give or take.   And all of those games are the worst of the worst of the worst, basically over only 4 total weeks out of the year the way they schedule.   Great for exposure, terrible for per game value in a contract.

Stripping out basketball for now, this is how many football games they can sell with 8 and 9 conference games per year:

  • 10 = 40/45
  • 12 = 48/54
  • 14 = 56/63
  • 16 = 64/72
  • 18 = 72/81

With 10 the Big 12 sells 1 T1 game a week (roughly) and each team gets 1 T3 game, which both add up to about 22 games, that leaves 23 games for T2, or about 2 a week on FS1/ESPN/ESPN2.   After that they are out of inventory.   Their T1 games, today, are who plays Texas and Oklahoma.   

So, they've done ok because they're the only conference with basically all of their games are on T1/T2, which is great for exposure, but is not always the most valued games.   You want to bury the shit on your own channel, that you pay for with people who don't watch it, and only feature the best match ups in the games you get paid for people watching.    That's how you get bigger contracts.   At 14 teams playing 9 conference games, like the Big Ten, you can play 3 games on your own channel (Noon, afternoon, Prime) and still have 27 games to sell.   27 better games is worth more than 36 shitty games.    If you look at the averages of the Big Ten/SEC/ACC nearly every team has a better broadcast audience average, but when you look at how many games they play its like 1 or 2 to the Big 12's 4-5.   In short, feature your best games, bury the rest, cash big checks.

At 16 you can play 3 games a day on a conference network and have 36 to sell.    The one advantage the Big 12 has right now is they lost brands, but they gained massive amounts DMA households.  Those don't matter for the big games, but they're how you fund the bad ones.   If they structured a channel that charged half as much as BTN charges, it could be worth between $350-$400m per year.

16 teams:  $500m for T1/T2 + $400m for T3 = $900m/16 = $56m per team per year.   

That's 20% less than the Big Ten and SEC, because they lack big brands, but it's the only way any of those teams stay that close.

Assuming Oregon/Washington/Stanford are Big Ten in waiting, you'd want ASU, Colorado, and Cal as your top 3 for a conference network.   Maxed out with a media partner who tethers them either to the SEC Network or the Big Ten Network could see them reach $60m/team for regular season broadcast rights and would likely require taking the shell of either LHN or FS2 to put together by 2024-25.

 

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bullet 1597

Posted
Posted

"The Big 12 said last week that it will hold talks with incumbent broadcast partners ESPN and Fox Sports that could lead to an early extension of its media rights deal. The news comes not long after the Big Ten agreed to a new media rights package with NBC, CBS and incumbent FOX and as the Pac-12 is negotiating its next round of rights deals in the wake of USC and UCLA’s departure to the Big Ten.

The current Big 12 contract runs through the 2024-25 academic year. ESPN reported that any potential deal would likely be a “short-term extension” meant to give the conference concrete financial figures in its quest to lure new members. Should the talks fail to result in a deal, ESPN and Fox will still maintain their traditional exclusive negotiating window in February 2024, per ESPN...."

https://www.sportsmediawatch.com/2022/09/cfp-expansion-big-12-rights-deal-sinclair-bally-rsns-nba-league-pass-price-cut/

Hadn't seen it spelled out that way before.

 

 

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TKthunder2

TKthunder2 4995

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3 hours ago, bullet said:

"The Big 12 said last week that it will hold talks with incumbent broadcast partners ESPN and Fox Sports that could lead to an early extension of its media rights deal. The news comes not long after the Big Ten agreed to a new media rights package with NBC, CBS and incumbent FOX and as the Pac-12 is negotiating its next round of rights deals in the wake of USC and UCLA’s departure to the Big Ten.

The current Big 12 contract runs through the 2024-25 academic year. ESPN reported that any potential deal would likely be a “short-term extension” meant to give the conference concrete financial figures in its quest to lure new members. Should the talks fail to result in a deal, ESPN and Fox will still maintain their traditional exclusive negotiating window in February 2024, per ESPN...."

https://www.sportsmediawatch.com/2022/09/cfp-expansion-big-12-rights-deal-sinclair-bally-rsns-nba-league-pass-price-cut/

Hadn't seen it spelled out that way before.

Which part? We know ESPN/FOX didn’t open the exclusive negotiating window, because the PAC media homers were quick to point that out. We knew nobody wanted a long term deal on either side.  Short term extension isn’t specific. It could be 2-5 years which is pretty much what I was expecting.

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bullet 1597

Posted
Posted
5 hours ago, TKthunder2 said:

Which part? We know ESPN/FOX didn’t open the exclusive negotiating window, because the PAC media homers were quick to point that out. We knew nobody wanted a long term deal on either side.  Short term extension isn’t specific. It could be 2-5 years which is pretty much what I was expecting.

That the purpose was to give them numbers to show potential expansion candidates.

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mdmost

mdmost 43011

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Posted (edited)

So this could mean any number of things. Are Texas and OU going next year? Is this more to not mess up the future schedules and get everyone moving towards getting new OOC opponents? Maybe ESPN has told the Big 12 that the new contract will be advantageous but only if Texas and OU are allowed to leave next year?

 

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Huckleberry

Huckleberry 33043

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Posted (edited)
3 minutes ago, mdmost said:

So this could mean any number of things. Are Texas and OU going next year? Is this more to not mess up the future schedules and get everyone moving towards getting new OOC opponents?

 

I choose to believe it means we're going in 2023 and our game in Tuscaloosa is staying right where it's at on September 9th to be the much hyped first conference game of the new SEC. That's what I want to believe so I choose to do so. 

Edited by Huckleberry
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Js1

Js1 85449

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Posted
17 minutes ago, Huckleberry said:

I choose to believe it means we're going in 2023 and our game in Tuscaloosa is staying right where it's at on September 9th to be the much hyped first conference game of the new SEC. That's what I want to believe so I choose to do so. 

Fuck it, I’m in 

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