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Realignment talk not going away

The Tower

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Posted by Sandbagging Steve,

How many teams will be left when the dust settles in a few years? I think there's a way for all the teams to still have some involvement. I will explain that at the end of this list. Here's my list of the top 32 programs and a list if it goes to 48. There's some debate if it goes to 48, but not much debate if it stops at 32. I guess one could debate Arizona State, but that's about it. The top 32 at least come close to carrying their own weight. Everyone below that line is losing money for t

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Aggy should abstain so the vote is 13-0 and then we can then brand it on their dog.

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Thiefery

Thiefery 4995

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8 minutes ago, DanTheHorn said:

If the kids buy it then they desrve to be aggy's because they are performing aggy math.

lol you know that's what they are pitching to current players.. look you won't be in the SEC til AFTER the '25 season.. You are a baller and will be 3 and out (23, 24, and 25).. come harness your skills in the hardest conference in America!! SEC SEC SEC!!!!!

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PDX_Horn

PDX_Horn 24

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5 hours ago, mdmost said:

Vomit

 

What in the actual fuck?

Seriously, this conference has done no favors for Texas and is pulling this shit? The officiating has been awful and we’re suppose to stand by and allow this to happen? If the SEC really wanted to welcome Texas and OU with open arms wouldn’t they ensure we’d be there in 24? 

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DanTheHorn

DanTheHorn 4913

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Posted (edited)
30 minutes ago, closetohumping said:

What can we do to Fox though? 

Not much other than drop our B1G games in the next few years and pickup some SEC or ACC games. BIG 12 could go ESPN and shut out Fox with promise of SEC and ACC guarantees. ESPN can play hard ball and over pay for 4 PAC teams and isolate B1G and PAC and the P5. For our sake lets hope ESPN and and Disney decide to let their nuts hang.

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TKthunder2

TKthunder2 4985

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31 minutes ago, closetohumping said:

What can we do to Fox though? 

We? Nothing. ESPN can though.

FOX wants to lock up the Big 12 long term since they are now boxed out of the SEC/ACC and likely out for the PAC10. Only having the Big Ten and Big East isn’t going to cut it. For them to do ink a deal with the Big 12 before that are able to go to open market, they need ESPN to join them since they jointly own the rights currently. If they fuck over ESPN, ESPN can fuck them back.

I still think this is all just negotiating. 2024 when ESPN has 100% of the SEC was always the mostly likely time for Texas and Oklahoma to join. If the Big 12 doesn’t let UT/OU go in 2024 they lose some significant leverage they had over ESPN in negotiations.

Big 12 will lock up a new TV extension in the next few months with ESPN and FOX. FOX will allow the Big 12 to let Texas/OU go early to ESPN in exchange for more favorable content distribution in FOX’s favor. It’s as close to a win-win-win as ESPN, FOX, and the Big 12 can get.

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Hurtlocker

Hurtlocker 2212

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On 10/15/2022 at 11:21 AM, TKthunder2 said:

I’m not positive about this, but I thought the SEC had that time slot specially called out in their contract. CBS may downgrade them to the 2nd string broadcast team, but I don’t think they can take that spot from them.

Yeah, CBS will still be airing the SEC at 3:30 in 2023:

Quote

CBS, which will be in the final year of its SEC deal in 2023, will air seven Big Ten football games in various windows that season before expanding to a full schedule of 14-15 games annually from 2024-29. The Big Ten will have an exclusive 3:30 p.m. window on CBS from 2024 onward and the ability to air as many as two games on Black Friday, the day after Thanksgiving. CBS will also air the Big Ten Championship Game in 2024 and 2028. All CBS games will be live streamed on Paramount+.

The 2023 season will be unique for college football fans watching on CBS. The network will broadcast both SEC and Big Ten games before transitioning to a full Big Ten schedule in 2024. The seven Big Ten games airing on CBS in 2023 will be an addition to a full schedule of 15 SEC games, including the SEC Championship Game, that season.

Quote

Big Ten football broadcasting

  CBS FOX/FS1 NBC BTN PEACOCK

2023 games

7

24-27

16

38-41

8

2024-29 games

14-15

30-32

14-15

50 (max)

8

Championships

2024, 2028

2023, 2025, 2027, 2029

2026

--

--

 

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bullet 1596

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18 hours ago, billfromlaketravis said:

Nahlin keeps banging the 2024 drum, but he won’t go into detail. I wonder openly if it’s like 60-40 that it happens. 
 

2023 is all but dead. 
 

I think the Fox thing has legs. They’re engaged in a Cold War with ESPN, and they won’t do them any favors. 
 

 

2024 just makes sense.  ESPN gets the SEC contract from CBS.  USC and UCLA move to the Big 10.  Pac 12, if it exists, starts its new TV contract.

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bullet 1596

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Speaking of the Pac, Jon Wilner, its biggest cheerleader, says its doom is imminent.  He just thinks its 7 years away, not 1.

https://tucson.com/sports/pac-12-hotline/pac-12-hotline-big-tens-tone-changes-which-is-good-news-for-pac-12-stability/article_17ea0aac-4c02-11ed-aafe-ef44767ae34d.html

"...Never say never when it comes to realignment, but 20 doesn’t appear imminent. Which means the Pac-12 is more likely to sign a medium-length media contract and move forward with the 10 remaining schools.

But that’s not the end of the story. Because by the turn of the decade, the market forces will have shifted and the Big Ten will be strutting to the negotiating table for another media contract.

As we outlined recently in a deep dive into the future of the sport, the next wave of realignment could very well strike in the late 2020s with the Big Ten and SEC expanding again and a third super-conference emerging.

The third league would feature many of the schools currently in the Big 12, plus those from the Pac-12 and ACC that don’t make the jump into the massive SEC or equally massive Big Ten.

Consolidation around the Big Two is inevitable.

A western arm of the Big Ten is inevitable.

An exodus of Pac-12 schools into a reconfigured Big 12 is inevitable.

 

But increasingly, it appears that point is years, not weeks or months, away."

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bullet 1596

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The issue for the Big 10 is that it is going to get $70 million per school and there is probably no west coast school that will generate that type of revenue on TV money.  But I suspect they will do a 6-7 year buy-in, look at it strategically, generate money from sponsorships and BTN and make it profitable for the existing 14.  

 

Rick Neuheisel said Washington and Oregon are a done deal.  Brett McMurphy never retracted his earlier comments.  Their courting was very public.  Warren basically said 18 or 20 was going to happen and that the only issue was 1, 5 or 7 years.  Its possible Warren doesn't have the votes, but I think its just a matter of timing and we will see the announcement sometime before July 1.  The question in my mind is whether they stop at 18 or go to 20 with Stanford and Cal.  20 gets harder to justify financially.

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billfromlaketravis

billfromlaketravis 11445

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I think 18-20 teams in a conference is too unwieldly and will result in NFL Lite type schedules. For example the Texans never play the Cowboys, and they're 4 hours away.

The Big Ten will maintain the marquee rivalries, but all those dumb ass regional rivalries like the Little Brown Jug and Paul Bunyon's Axe will go away. It don't make a shit for people living in Texas, but it matters to those goofy bastards freezing their asses off in the Upper Midwest. As I mentioned upthread, Dan Carlin has a long take on a college footbal podcast about how the sport is hyper regional and fan engagement will suffer if it becomes the NFL Lite. He goes so far as to predict further realignment will kill the sport. I wouldn't go that far, gambling is always going keep college football afloat, but everybody outside of the blue bloods could have trouble selling tickets. 

 

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TKthunder2

TKthunder2 4985

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2 hours ago, billfromlaketravis said:

I think 18-20 teams in a conference is too unwieldly and will result in NFL Lite type schedules. For example the Texans never play the Cowboys, and they're 4 hours away.

The Big Ten will maintain the marquee rivalries, but all those dumb ass regional rivalries like the Little Brown Jug and Paul Bunyon's Axe will go away. It don't make a shit for people living in Texas, but it matters to those goofy bastards freezing their asses off in the Upper Midwest. As I mentioned upthread, Dan Carlin has a long take on a college footbal podcast about how the sport is hyper regional and fan engagement will suffer if it becomes the NFL Lite. He goes so far as to predict further realignment will kill the sport. I wouldn't go that far, gambling is always going keep college football afloat, but everybody outside of the blue bloods could have trouble selling tickets. 

Little Brown Jug hasn’t been played annually since 2008. Obviously some rivalries will go away with realignment but not all. I feel pretty confident Minnesota/Wisconsin will be retained as those schools are each other’s primary rival. Secondary historical rivalries (like both have with Iowa) are more likely to be sacrificed and you’ll see more forced ‘manufactured’ rivalries like Iowa/Nebraska, Arkansas/Missouri, Florida/LSU, Utah/Colorado, Maryland/Rutgers.

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kopp0e

kopp0e 1135

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On 10/18/2022 at 9:44 PM, MAUFRAIS said:

I’m never watching the simpsons again!

Welp, don’t punish Disney/ ESPN (as the Mouse owns Simpson’s house now)…

As far as expansion for B1G/ SEC I could see both going to 24 & a 3rd league…

Current/ future B1G 16+

Washington-Oregon-Stanford & Notre Dame-Va Tech-Duke-Ga Tech-Miami


Current/ future SEC 16+
 

Virginia-N Carolina-NC State-Florida St-Kansas-Colorado-Arizona-Arizona St

Some amalgamation of PAC/ XII/ ACC/ AAC will remain at about half of the P2…

Playoffs eventually expand to 32 & maybe NCAA hoops tourney is folded in eh..?

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Hurtlocker

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11 hours ago, bullet said:

The issue for the Big 10 is that it is going to get $70 million per school and there is probably no west coast school that will generate that type of revenue on TV money.  But I suspect they will do a 6-7 year buy-in, look at it strategically, generate money from sponsorships and BTN and make it profitable for the existing 14.  

 

Rick Neuheisel said Washington and Oregon are a done deal.  Brett McMurphy never retracted his earlier comments.  Their courting was very public.  Warren basically said 18 or 20 was going to happen and that the only issue was 1, 5 or 7 years.  Its possible Warren doesn't have the votes, but I think its just a matter of timing and we will see the announcement sometime before July 1.  The question in my mind is whether they stop at 18 or go to 20 with Stanford and Cal.  20 gets harder to justify financially.

The one way they were talking about funding it is by making a deal with ESPN for the After Dark slot.   Though I don't think, even with its value as better than nothing, that it would bring enough, and it would force all the west coast schools on it.   Anything added at this point takes away from someone already in the Big Ten.   That Oregon game on NBC?   Suck it Iowa, you're on FS1.   Afternoon for Washington?   Thanks for nothing Minnesota!   It may be marketing more than money than makes it daunting.

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Hurtlocker

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Big 12 may secure new media rights deal with current partners in matter of weeks

Quote

"Although the economics are important, it's not the only thing I'm looking for. I want partners that want to market, promote and story tell," Yormark said.

CBS Sports reported last month that the Pac-12 would be in danger of collapsing if the Big Ten was successful in adding California, Oregon, Stanford and Washington. Big Ten commissioner Kevin Warren, who had been public about his interest in expansion, has cooled on the subject recently, sources said.

However, the Big 12 remains interested in adding a Pacific time zone presence to its conference footprint. CBS Sports reported in July that the Big 12 was in discussions with Pac-12 schools to join the league. That same month, Pac-12 commissioner George Kliavkoff subsequently said, "No Pac-12 school is joining the Big 12."

If the Pac-12 signs a media rights deal that is heavy with streaming content, industry sources have speculated that might convince some Pac-12 schools to move to the Big 12 because of the decreased visibility of the Pac-12 without a linear cable home.

If that happens, the Big 12 could promise a coast-to-coast conference located in four time zones with games positioned all four windows: noon, mid-afternoon, prime time and late night.

ESPN is believed to be seeking content in that fourth window as its Pac-12 contract expires. Whether that's with the Pac-12, Big 12 or a combination of the two leagues remains to be seen.

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'stache

'stache 21789

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Posted (edited)

It’ll be 2024, everything is posturing. Next round will kill the PAC, the best rated of the rest will form the third conference. It’ll be a new conference. Stanford and Cal will go independent if they don’t make the BIG cause they love the smell of their own farts.

Edited by 'stache
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closetohumping

closetohumping 17432

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21 hours ago, bullet said:

2024 just makes sense.  ESPN gets the SEC contract from CBS.  USC and UCLA move to the Big 10.  Pac 12, if it exists, starts its new TV contract.

Yep.  My hope is ESPN leans on Fox to play ball, throws them some cash, a couple of bones and make things right.  

 

What's funny is initially, didn't every 9.95er predict we'd be in the SEC this year?

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Hurtlocker

Hurtlocker 2212

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Posted
2 hours ago, Thiefery said:

60 mil per team??

 

Green Shirt Guy Lol GIF by MOODMAN

Its possible, because they're not talking only broadcast.   The Big Ten's number is $75m for broadcast, they're talking $60m for all in.   With bowl games and the elevated playoffs, you can get there.   Imagine the playoff pays the top 4 conferences around $25m per school, if they get $35m in broadcast, they're at $60m.   What isn't being said is the SEC/B1G is getting $100m

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Al_4_ISU

Al_4_ISU 12447

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It sounds crazy writing it, but I think ESPN should try to get the back exclusive TV rights to the Big 12. It would give them a majority of the Big 5. Hopefully it’s worth enough to the Mouse to get us the f*** out while making the Big 12 whole. 

Would that enable OUT to get away from Fox? It seems to me like they’re (Fox) the hang up here.
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camel at sea

camel at sea 589

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18 hours ago, Hurtlocker said:

Its possible, because they're not talking only broadcast.   The Big Ten's number is $75m for broadcast, they're talking $60m for all in.   With bowl games and the elevated playoffs, you can get there.   Imagine the playoff pays the top 4 conferences around $25m per school, if they get $35m in broadcast, they're at $60m.   What isn't being said is the SEC/B1G is getting $100m

So if the Big 12 signs a deal that ends up $60M for all in, does that give the decision-makers at U of Arizona the political cover to make the jump?  And if it does, who follows?  Arizona especially cannot drag their feet, I don't think.  They're lower on the value pecking order than some of their PAC peers.  If the Big 12 has ASU, would Arizona automatically be in ahead of SDSU?  I'm not sure - especially if this all goes down a decade from now instead of a year from now.  

There's a scenario in play where the Four Corners schools leave for the Big 12 while the PAC North remnants just add 4 and set up very unequal revenue distribution.

Oregon, Washington, Stanford, Cal, Or. St, WA St., SDSU, Fresno St, +1, +1 (Boise, Col. St., SMU, Nevada, Hawaii, etc.)

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NoctambulantBrobdingnagian

NoctambulantBrobdingnagian 530

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On 10/17/2022 at 8:04 PM, LTtxfan said:

Just adding another article about FOX

FOX Blocking Oklahoma-Texas Early Exit From Big 12: Report

By:  Bryan Clinton     October 14, 2022

There have been rumors and speculation surrounding the timeline for Oklahoma and Texas’ departure from the Big 12 to the SEC.

We have heard everything from them joining the league in 2023, to definitely gone by 2024, and both athletic directors pledging to stay until 2025.

It appears that they might not have as much of a choice in the matter if FOX has anything to say about it. According to CBS Sports’ Dennis Dodd and Chip Patterson, the move isn’t likely to happen prior to 2025 due to FOX losing major inventory in Oklahoma and Texas, since it doesn’t have rights to the SEC brand.

“Though there was a belief that Texas and Oklahoma may have been attempting to exit the Big 12 one year early in 2024, sources told Dodd that Fox would likely have demanded a return to make its future programming whole, including a top-tier selection of games years into the future given the marquee programs would have left its airwaves early. That’s beyond what would have been a potentially massive early exit fee the programs would have needed to pay the Big 12 directly.“

This report coincides with a report from Sports Illustrated’s Ross Dellenger that announced the Big 12 is planning to adopt a new scheduling model in 2023 and 2024 that features no divisions and protects rivalries like Oklahoma vs. Texas.

The Big 12 is expected to continue with nine conference games and a conference championship that includes the top two teams in the league.

The two-year format is set up for each team to play all others at least once. The Big 12’s best rivalries are expected to be played both in 2023 and 2024. Those matchups are not yet official, according to Dellenger, but are likely to include Oklahoma-Texas, Oklahoma State-Oklahoma, Kansas-Kansas State, TCU-Baylor, and West Virginia-Cincinnati, with the latter being a regional match-up and ties back to the old Big East.

The Big 12 is expected to then drop to 12 teams for the start of the 2025 football season, although there is speculation the two could be gone in 2024. However, no matter what it looks like both teams will be in the Big 12 in 2023, as the SEC has already released its football schedule and it does not include Oklahoma or Texas.

The two schools will owe the Big 12 $80 million each when they leave the league, and to leave a year earlier would cost them an extra $100 million.

Can someone explain why there is still an exit fee when the grant of rights will have expired?

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hook me

hook me 2092

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Posted

Maybe it's just optimism, which I'm not used to so forgive me, but it feels like ESPN is going to pay a little (lotta) bit extra in order to get UT/OU out after next season. They'll probably add a nice clause (pro rata or close to it) for new members added in the MT or PT so that the Big 12 doesn't take a hit for adding the 4-corner schools & it gives ESPN late night content w/o the PAC. The Big 12 can offer them proximity, competitiveness, security, & most importantly $$$$ that the PAC can no longer offer. They'll open recruiting to new areas (TX, FL, OH) & exposure across the country instead of just their area. It really makes a lot of sense & if 1 of the corner schools don't jump at the opportunity the Big 12 should immediately move to SDST & offer a reduced payment that SDST would absolutely jump on. Start the contract at the end of the 2023 Spring schedule which would nullify the current contract, letting UT/OU walk w/o penalty & immediately increasing the payout for all 12/16 teams starting with the 2024 season. The PAC then dissolves into nothing with USC, UCLA, 3 or 4 of the corner schools & maybe UW & UO all leaving.

Then, all eyes are on 2034 when the SEC TV contract is up & the ACC expires a few years after (if those schools make it that long, which I seriously doubt).

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TKthunder2

TKthunder2 4985

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, NoctambulantBrobdingnagian said:

Can someone explain why there is still an exit fee when the grant of rights will have expired?

We signed a 99 year agreement with the conference with an exit fee for just being in the conference in general. The GOR is a separate document concerning only TV rights. We granted those rights to the conference for the duration of the TV deal for more money since FOX/ESPN would know they had the conference under lock and key until the end of the contract. Even when the TV deal and GOR expire, the original agreement with the conference is still in place, so is the exit fee which was significantly increased after aggy/Mizzou left.

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TKthunder2

TKthunder2 4985

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Posted
11 hours ago, billfromlaketravis said:

It sounds crazy writing it, but I think ESPN should try to get the back exclusive TV rights to the Big 12. It would give them a majority of the Big 5. Hopefully it’s worth enough to the Mouse to get us the f*** out while making the Big 12 whole. 

 

7 hours ago, Al_4_ISU said:


Would that enable OUT to get away from Fox? It seems to me like they’re (Fox) the hang up here.

Yep ESPN can’t buyout exclusive rights unless FOX sells them their rights to the 23/24 seasons. Then ESPN could negotiate with the Big 12 to extend their exclusive ownership of the conference. Without that they’d have to wait until 2023 to even start those discussions and the. ESPN would have to bid after the Big 12 takes their rights to the open market. The odds of this happening are very small.

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billfromlaketravis

billfromlaketravis 11445

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, TKthunder2 said:

 

Yep ESPN can’t buyout exclusive rights unless FOX sells them their rights to the 23/24 seasons. Then ESPN could negotiate with the Big 12 to extend their exclusive ownership of the conference. Without that they’d have to wait until 2023 to even start those discussions and the. ESPN would have to bid after the Big 12 takes their rights to the open market. The odds of this happening are very small.

Couldn’t ESPN buy out FOX with some under the table assurances they’d get the Big 12’s exclusive rights in 2025? 
 

If I’m ESPN , I’m targeting the Big 12. They’re the only available conference that people give a shit about. 

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Trojan Man

Trojan Man 429

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Absolutely remarkable the Big 12 will Mr. Magoo their way into the 3rd place "best of the rest" conference after how many times they have been poached and left for dead in the last few rounds of realignment.  I'm glad it's playing out like that.  I think Big 12 games are a lot more fun to watch and generally feature higher quality football than ACC and Pac 12 games.  It also seems like every Big 12 school gives a fuck about winning and does their best to field a competitive team as opposed to a good amount of ACC and Pac 12 athletic departments who are happy to just do the bare minimum required to get the conference payout and could care less about their record, so it's nice to see them get rewarded for doing their best.

$60M total per year is nothing to sneeze at, even if it pales in comparison to what the B1G and SEC will earn.  That's more than enough to build top notch facilities and retain good coaches and have a healthy budget for recruiting and support staffs.  After the playoff expands I'd expect the Big 12 to get at least one at large berth most years and even two at large berths some years.  I think boiling the sport down to two conferences would be terrible for the overall health of CFB despite my school having a seat at the winners' table, so the existence of a third respectable conference is a great outcome in my opinion.

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Magus Ossis

Magus Ossis 2797

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Posted

If the media companies involved are creative and insightful enough to discern what arrangement likely makes them the most reliable money over the reasonably foreseeable future, they are likely to collude to get their greatest possible share of the biggest possible pie. It seems the overall marketable TV value of CFB would be greater with OU and Texas in the SEC. If so, Adam Smith's invisible hand will push Fox, ESPN, and whomever toward working something out which lets us play '24 in the SEC. Big Sports Media Inc has all manner of levers it can pull to influence conferences like B12, but they ultimately converge on the Benjamins. If the best calculations do not clearly show that the overall value of the sport as broadcast entertainment is maximized by our move, our odds are dramatically lower-- we would be pushing a rope instead of helping pull the winning side in a tug-of-war. 

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Huckleberry

Huckleberry 32843

Posted
Posted (edited)
42 minutes ago, Trojan Man said:

Absolutely remarkable the Big 12 will Mr. Magoo their way into the 3rd place "best of the rest" conference after how many times they have been poached and left for dead in the last few rounds of realignment.  I'm glad it's playing out like that.  I think Big 12 games are a lot more fun to watch and generally feature higher quality football than ACC and Pac 12 games.  It also seems like every Big 12 school gives a fuck about winning and does their best to field a competitive team as opposed to a good amount of ACC and Pac 12 athletic departments who are happy to just do the bare minimum required to get the conference payout and could care less about their record, so it's nice to see them get rewarded for doing their best.

$60M total per year is nothing to sneeze at, even if it pales in comparison to what the B1G and SEC will earn.  That's more than enough to build top notch facilities and retain good coaches and have a healthy budget for recruiting and support staffs.  After the playoff expands I'd expect the Big 12 to get at least one at large berth most years and even two at large berths some years.  I think boiling the sport down to two conferences would be terrible for the overall health of CFB despite my school having a seat at the winners' table, so the existence of a third respectable conference is a great outcome in my opinion.

The Big 12's problem has always been terrible leadership. A lot on commissioners, a lot on some of the schools (not all). It's been the second best football conference over the period it's existed and it's not that close. And probably #1A or 1B basketball conference. 

Edited by Huckleberry
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Trojan Man

Trojan Man 429

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Posted
6 minutes ago, Huckleberry said:

The Big 12's problem has always been terrible leadership. A lot on commissioners, a lot on some of the schools (not all). It's been the second best football conference over the period it's existed and it's not that close. And probably #1A or 1B basketball conference. 

I know why it couldn't have worked out, but I think if the original Big 12 had managed to overcome their drama and stick together they would be poaching USC and UCLA and Washington and Oregon right about now.  That conference would go toe to toe with the B1G and SEC in terms of ratings and media deals and prestige.  It would have been nice to have a third super conference made up entirely of teams west of the Mississippi instead of ceding all power to the Midwest and Southeast.  There are fans who still don't acknowledge Penn State and Arkansas and South Carolina as "real" B1G/SEC schools.  USC and Texas will never be fully seen by the rest of their respective conferences as a true B1G/SEC institution, a stark contrast to having some kind of Big 12/Pac 12 hybrid where USC and Texas (and Oklahoma too I suppose) are the clear top dogs.

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