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Realignment talk not going away

The Tower

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Posted by Sandbagging Steve,

How many teams will be left when the dust settles in a few years? I think there's a way for all the teams to still have some involvement. I will explain that at the end of this list. Here's my list of the top 32 programs and a list if it goes to 48. There's some debate if it goes to 48, but not much debate if it stops at 32. I guess one could debate Arizona State, but that's about it. The top 32 at least come close to carrying their own weight. Everyone below that line is losing money for t

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TKthunder2

TKthunder2 4985

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2 hours ago, Satchel said:

Could the commonalities have more to do with the B1G being comprised of flagship schools? The same could be said of the Sec (with Vandy being the exception). That is not true in the B12.

I’m sure that has something to do with it but I think population also plays a critical factor here, and it’s also noteworthy that Baylor/TCU/BYU don’t bring in the same value to a conference as Stanford, Vanderbilt, and Northwestern do (USC has the best of both worlds). From a football perspective it’s a positive (and that’s what’s driving the bus here) but from every other aspect it is not.

 

Current

B1G has 11 flagships, 2 #2s, and 1 private with a footprint covering 75 million in population  

B12 has 4 flagships, 3 #2s, 1 #3, and 2 privates with a footprint covering 42 million in population (30 of which is just from the State of Texas)

SEC has 10 flagships, 3 #2s, and 1 private with a footprint covering 90 million in population

PAC has 6 flagships, 4 #2, and 2 privates with a footprint covering 68 million in population (40 of which is just from the Stare of California)


Future 

B1G has 11 flagships, 3 #2s, and 2 privates with a footprint covering 115 million in population 

B12 has 2 flagships, 4 #2s, 2 #3, 1 #4, and 3 privates privates with a footprint covering 78 million in population

SEC has 12 flagships, 3 #2s, and 1 private with a footprint covering 94 million in population

PAC has 6 flagships, 3 #2, and 1 private with a footprint covering 68 million in population

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Aggy should abstain so the vote is 13-0 and then we can then brand it on their dog.

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Satchel

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1 hour ago, TKthunder2 said:

I’m sure that has something to do with it but I think population also plays a critical factor here, and it’s also noteworthy that Baylor/TCU/BYU don’t bring in the same value to a conference as Stanford, Vanderbilt, and Northwestern do (USC has the best of both worlds). From a football perspective it’s a positive (and that’s what’s driving the bus here) but from every other aspect it is not.

 

Current

B1G has 11 flagships, 2 #2s, and 1 private with a footprint covering 75 million in population  

B12 has 4 flagships, 3 #2s, 1 #3, and 2 privates with a footprint covering 42 million in population (30 of which is just from the State of Texas)

SEC has 10 flagships, 3 #2s, and 1 private with a footprint covering 90 million in population

PAC has 6 flagships, 4 #2, and 2 privates with a footprint covering 68 million in population (40 of which is just from the Stare of California)


Future 

B1G has 11 flagships, 3 #2s, and 2 privates with a footprint covering 115 million in population 

B12 has 2 flagships, 4 #2s, 2 #3, 1 #4, and 3 privates privates with a footprint covering 78 million in population

SEC has 12 flagships, 3 #2s, and 1 private with a footprint covering 94 million in population

PAC has 6 flagships, 3 #2, and 1 private with a footprint covering 68 million in population

Very interesting analysis. Was surprised to learn just how small most of those little hamlets in the Sec actually are.

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TKthunder2

TKthunder2 4985

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1 hour ago, Satchel said:

Very interesting analysis. Was surprised to learn just how small most of those little hamlets in the Sec actually are.

Other than doubling down on the small population state of Mississippi, I see no real issues with the new look SEC. Everyone else brings some solid value.

I have the same complaint about Oregon State in the PAC12, Wake Forest in the ACC, and Purdue in the Big Ten (especially true if they ever end up with Notre Dame).

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bullet 1596

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6 hours ago, Hurtlocker said:

Revenue can get goofy in a single year, since a massive donation can look like a school makes a ton.   For instance, in 2020, Oregon had $300m in contributions, but they don't normally make $400m a year.  Most schools, however, try and spend whatever they bring in, so let's look at expenses as a demarcation (bold = within $2m of moving to the next bracket):

$200m club - 1

  • Big Ten = 1 (Ohio State)

$150+ club - 8

  • SEC = 3 (Alabama, Aggy, LSU)
  • Big 12 = 2 (Texas, Oklahoma)
  • Big Ten = 2 (Michigan, Penn State)
  • ACC = 1 (Florida State)

$120+ club - 18

  • Big Ten = 7 (Wisconsin, Iowa, Michigan State, Minnesota, Illinois, Nebraska, and Indiana)
  • SEC = 6 (Tennessee, Kentucky, Florida, Georgia, Auburn, South Carolina, Arkansas)
  • Pac 12 = 3 (Washington, USC, Oregon)
  • ACC = 2 (Louisville, Clemson)

$90m+ club - 28

  • ACC = 8 (UNC, UVA, VTech, GTech, Miami, Cuse, Pitt, Wake
  • Big 12 = 6 (TCU, Kansas, Baylor, Oklahoma State, Iowa State, West Virginia)
  • Pac 12 = 6 (UCLA, ASU, Cal, Arizona, Utah, Colorado)
  • Big Ten = 4 (Rutgers, Purdue, Northwestern, Maryland)
  • SEC = 4 (Missouri, Mississippi, MSU, Vandy)

$70+ club - 7  (was going to do $60m, but GTech was the lowest at $71m)

  • ACC = 3 (NCSt, BC, GTech)
  • Big 12 = 2 (Tech, KState)
  • Pac = 2 (Oregon State, Washington State)

 

Most at the top don't even spend the money they have.    Its very clear that Texas didn't move to the SEC for money.  Consistent profits of over $20m year-over-year; you can only build so many locker rooms.  The move occurred to regain the narrative in recruiting blue chips as the SEC made major inroads into Texas after Aggy moved.     Oklahoma made the move to not get left behind, but the money will help.   USC made the move because they were stranded, lacking exposure, AND making less than the other powers.

If Texas, Oklahoma, USC, UCLA ended up in the same conference, it likely would have made closer to B1G/SEC, maybe 10-15% less.   Wouldn't have helped the recruiting angle though.

While I agree about the reason for the UT move (along with influence on NIL, pay for play and other rule changes), it wasn't so much the SEC getting inroads into Texas recruiting as certain schools.  Yes, Alabama and Georgia were SEC schools, but Ohio St. was not.  It was those big names who made the CFP grabbing the blue chips.

In 2021 per 247, Ohio St. took the top 2 players in Texas.  Alabama got 4 of the top 18.  OU had 4 of the top 13.  Aggy had 5 of the top 18, but none of the top 7.  UT only had 1 in the top 35.  Texas Tech and Tennessee got the other 2 players in the top 18.

2020 wasn't as bad, but Alabama got #1 and #13 and Ohio St. got #2 and #23.  Georgia got #11.

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camel at sea

camel at sea 589

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15 hours ago, BornAndRaised said:

 

That's a big win for the Big 12.  If SBJ is reporting it, then it's probably close to done.  I'd guess then that they'll add the Four Corners schools within the next 12 months, too.  It won't make sense for Arizona, Utah, etc., to wait around for the inevitable.  They can't sign a new PAC deal and just assume that a Big 12 lifeboat will always be there.  It might not be.  The Big 12 just proved to them that they're more valuable than the current PAC (even with Oregon and Washington.)  

 

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BurntOrange&White

BurntOrange&White 39930

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Posted

The latest timing and scheduling on Texas' move to the SEC

Eric Nahlin•32 minutes

Article written by:Eric Nahlin

When it comes to Texas’ departure for the SEC, the continuing theme is patience. Texas is in no hurry to make the move to the SEC for two main reasons: the school has zero interest in paying the conference exit fee, and the later Texas joins the SEC, the more mature the roster will be.

That doesn’t mean high level talks between the relevant parties aren’t taking place. Big 12 commissioner Brett Yormark is being proactive to orchestrate new TV deals with Fox and ESPN.

The precarious circumstance of Texas and OU playing out the string and Yormark seeking a new deal for the Big 12 have given way to some outside the box thinking. We are not reporting this will happen, or even that there are detailed contract negotiations to this effect, but the idea has been kicked around to have a hybrid schedule in which Texas and OU will split the 2024 season between playing a modified Big 12 and SEC schedule.

Yes, it does sound far-fetched, and who knows if it will happen, but per two sources it’s something that has been kicked around.

You will want more details on the possibility of this actually occurring. Join the club. After IT initially heard about the possibility we reached out to another source and only received confirmation it is an idea that’s being discussed, “but nothing is written down on paper.”

Given all the considerations — timing of expiring TV deals, Texas and OU reluctant to pay exit fees — this arrangement could make some sense.

One thing’s for sure, the question of when will Texas leave the Big 12 to join the SEC became a little more difficult to answer.

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Texas Wahoo

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3 hours ago, BurntOrange&White said:

We are not reporting this will happen, or even that there are detailed contract negotiations to this effect, but the idea has been kicked around to have a hybrid schedule in which Texas and OU will split the 2024 season between playing a modified Big 12 and SEC schedule.

What?  How on earth would that even work?

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closetohumping

closetohumping 17435

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Posted
36 minutes ago, Not a Sock said:

Looks like the Big 12 struck as deal for 31 million majority with ESPN, looks like we should know our exit time pretty soon.

Sounds like we lost and will be here at least till 2025.  That was our leverage right?

On 10/28/2022 at 9:42 AM, mdmost said:

A few more suckles from the teet. Thanks again to the shitheads who thought agreeing to the stupid GOR was a great idea. 

And for no reason at all.  None of the leftovers were going anywhere.

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Trey3216

Trey3216 15345

Posted
Posted (edited)
43 minutes ago, Big Frog II said:

It's a good deal above what the Pac 12 has been offered.  Maybe they can get close by going to Amazon or whatever, but I wouldn't want that to be my primary TV package.

Not to mention the PAC deal is for all 3 tiers.   Big XII deal is for Tiers 1 & 2, is a raise of about 40% per team from the current deal ($22mm to 31) and will put total payout from all revenues to about $50mm per team.   Plus, there’s been talk of some escalators if the right PAC teams make the jump.   
 

in addition, it’s a 6 year deal so it will go back to market again before the SEC and ACC, and also beat the PAC to market.  PAC will be effectively dead in the next few days/weeks.  

Edited by Trey3216
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billfromlaketravis

billfromlaketravis 11448

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Posted
2 hours ago, SimonBolivar said:

 

 

I have no idea if this is a good number for the B12 vs P12

Hopefully this leads to Texas/OU leaving early, and maybe Tech STFU about playing Texas every year. 

Also good for football fans. I'd imagine the pay bump comes with some strings. Plenty of Thursday/Friday night games, and I'd imagine every BYU home game is going to be at 9 pm CST. 

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mdmost

mdmost 43000

Posted
Posted (edited)

Fox is the reason we can't leave early. Texas and OU have no leverage with them since they stand to lose both schools permanently in 2025. 

It will come with a ton of ESPN+ games but honestly that's not a bad thing with how the ESPN app is integrated into most devices now. Don't think I'm wrong considering two games this weekend will be on ESPN+.

 

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Texas Wahoo

Texas Wahoo 3389

Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, closetohumping said:

Sounds like we lost and will be here at least till 2025.  That was our leverage right?

And for no reason at all.  None of the leftovers were going anywhere.

The GOR was signed to get a better deal from Fox and ESPN. They wanted to avoid Texas, etc leaving during the contract. 

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gmr548

gmr548 16576

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Posted
On 10/28/2022 at 9:48 AM, BurntOrange&White said:

The latest timing and scheduling on Texas' move to the SEC

Eric Nahlin•32 minutes

Article written by:Eric Nahlin

When it comes to Texas’ departure for the SEC, the continuing theme is patience. Texas is in no hurry to make the move to the SEC for two main reasons: the school has zero interest in paying the conference exit fee, and the later Texas joins the SEC, the more mature the roster will be.

That doesn’t mean high level talks between the relevant parties aren’t taking place. Big 12 commissioner Brett Yormark is being proactive to orchestrate new TV deals with Fox and ESPN.

The precarious circumstance of Texas and OU playing out the string and Yormark seeking a new deal for the Big 12 have given way to some outside the box thinking. We are not reporting this will happen, or even that there are detailed contract negotiations to this effect, but the idea has been kicked around to have a hybrid schedule in which Texas and OU will split the 2024 season between playing a modified Big 12 and SEC schedule.

Yes, it does sound far-fetched, and who knows if it will happen, but per two sources it’s something that has been kicked around.

You will want more details on the possibility of this actually occurring. Join the club. After IT initially heard about the possibility we reached out to another source and only received confirmation it is an idea that’s being discussed, “but nothing is written down on paper.”

Given all the considerations — timing of expiring TV deals, Texas and OU reluctant to pay exit fees — this arrangement could make some sense.

One thing’s for sure, the question of when will Texas leave the Big 12 to join the SEC became a little more difficult to answer.

People pay for this lol

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The Hot Dog Buffet

The Hot Dog Buffet 1291

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Posted
26 minutes ago, BurntOrange&White said:

How though I’d the money stays the same as it currently is through 2025? 

I'm seeing tweets about a pro rata clause in the contract for future expansion. That makes me think expansion won't cost the schools any money, but I guess you can't be sure until you see the actual contract.

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Laxtonto

Laxtonto 12078

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Posted
33 minutes ago, Francisco 2.0 said:

About those Tier 3 rights:

 

 

 

Now that is a bigger issue than most people want to admit.  How does the LHN exist in a contract that the B12 has signed away all of the T3 rights? This has to be something that comes into effect after UT and OU leave and in effect the difference between what the payouts with and without UT and OU is considered somewhat equivalent to ALL of the B12 T3 content and my guess is with a reduced escalation schedule.

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statsman

statsman 5451

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Posted (edited)

The six year deal averages $31.8M per year per school, whereas before they were about $24M per year per school? Questions-

1. Is there an inflation component? Does the payout go up each year, averaging $31.8M? 
2. What is the standalone value of the T3 content? About $3M per year, per school?

3. What is the planned distribution in the year(s) with 14 B12 teams (presumably the old contract)?

Edited by statsman
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Trey3216

Trey3216 15345

Posted
Posted
5 hours ago, Trey3216 said:

Not to mention the PAC deal is for all 3 tiers.   Big XII deal is for Tiers 1 & 2, is a raise of about 40% per team from the current deal ($22mm to 31) and will put total payout from all revenues to about $50mm per team.   Plus, there’s been talk of some escalators if the right PAC teams make the jump.   

Seeing some escalator values of up to $16mm per school with the right 4 PAC schools moving over.  It’s not SEC/B1G $$, but it’s far and away firmly the best of the rest 

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statsman

statsman 5451

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Posted
14 minutes ago, Trey3216 said:

Seeing some escalator values of up to $16mm per school with the right 4 PAC schools moving over.  It’s not SEC/B1G $$, but it’s far and away firmly the best of the rest 

I’m guessing the “right” PAC schools include UW, Stanford, Cal and Oregon, and not Arizona or Utah schools

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mdmost

mdmost 43000

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Posted
Just now, Okie State said:

I'm sure it has been discussed ad nauseam on this thread, but what value do Stanford and Cal bring? Obviously their academics are top notch, but does anyone care about their athletic programs? Serious question because I have no idea.
 

Two things I can think of that I don't really think are that great in regards to Stanford. Bay Area TV market and every other year with Notre Dame on the schedule. There is no benefit to bringing over Cal. 

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Satchel

Satchel 6932

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Posted
Just now, mdmost said:

Two things I can think of that I don't really think are that great in regards to Stanford. Bay Area TV market and every other year with Notre Dame on the schedule. There is no benefit to bringing over Cal. 

Since the Big 12 went from having the second most AAU members to just one, it could use the smoke Cal brings as the best public Ivy.

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mdmost

mdmost 43000

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Posted (edited)

I think the Big 12 shouldn't add anyone outside of Oregon and Washington. You need good football schools and Cal, Arizona, Stanford, Arizona State, and Colorado are not that. You could bring Utah but you got the nutjob version of Utah in BYU. Bringing any of those other schools to the Big 12 is just diluting your product and lowering the cache of your conference. 

Edited by mdmost
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statsman

statsman 5451

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Posted
31 minutes ago, Okie State said:

I'm sure it has been discussed ad nauseam on this thread, but what value do Stanford and Cal bring? Obviously their academics are top notch, but does anyone care about their athletic programs? Serious question because I have no idea.
 

They are in fucking California, where there are recruits, and not Oklahoma, where there aren’t recruits 

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Chopper

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Posted
6 hours ago, Big Frog II said:

It's a good deal above what the Pac 12 has been offered.  Maybe they can get close by going to Amazon or whatever, but I wouldn't want that to be my primary TV package.

The p12 cheerleaders, headed by Mandel and Canzano, claim the p12 will get a higher number than the b12. I can't see how that happens and I can't see why amazon would have any interest in putting p12 games on their platform. Nor why OR or WA would give a multi-year GOR to be tied with amazon.

 

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TKthunder2

TKthunder2 4985

Posted
Posted
28 minutes ago, Okie State said:

I'm sure it has been discussed ad nauseam on this thread, but what value do Stanford and Cal bring? Obviously their academics are top notch, but does anyone care about their athletic programs? Serious question because I have no idea.
 

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/where-should-the-big-ten-expand-next-we-crunched-the-numbers/
 

538 has them behind the obvious candidates: ND, UNC, Oregon, FSU, UW, and Clemson and essentially tied with Miami and Utah.

Quote

Stanford and Cal rate lower than I would have expected. They’re great fits — yes, Stanford is private, but its academic prestige and AAU membership are probably enough to make up for that — and Stanford has an excellent athletic program (that’s less true for Cal).

But they just aren’t very big as sports brands. There are several problems: The Bay Area has low interest in college football, and these programs have little following outside that region, even as compared to schools like Fresno State and Oregon (not to mention incoming Big Ten members USC and UCLA). Also, there are two of them. Maybe the Bay Area is worth planting a flag in, but is it worth doing so twice over? Cal does particularly poorly in the market category, with a score of just 24. Stanford at least gets a 35, which is well below the current Big Ten average but is at least higher than Northwestern’s, a peer school in many respects.

It is mainly their market, academics, and other sports more so than fb. These decisions are not 100% made by TV executives, they are made by university presidents who would give up $5-10 million a year to be able to run elbows with the West Coast Ivy level universities.

Does that matter to the Big 12? Generally I’d say no, but if the choice is SDSU or Stanford, I think you take Stanford every time.

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Okie State

Okie State 3815

Posted
Posted
It is mainly their market, academics, and other sports more so than fb. These decisions are not 100% made by TV executives, they are made by university presidents who would give up $5-10 million a year to be able to run elbows with the West Coast Ivy level universities.
Does that matter to the Big 12? Generally I’d say no, but if the choice is SDSU or Stanford, I think you take Stanford every time.
Yeah I agree with that. I just have a hard time believing academics play much of a role. Everyone will look down on OSU academics regardless of whether or not we're in the same conference as Stanford. It is what it is.
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LTbear

LTbear 4168

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Posted
42 minutes ago, mdmost said:

I think the Big 12 shouldn't add anyone outside of Oregon and Washington. You need good football schools and Cal, Arizona, Stanford, Arizona State, and Colorado are not that. You could bring Utah but you got the nutjob versuin Utah in BYU. Bringing any of those other schools to the Big 12 is just diluting your product and lowering the cache of your conference. 

Arizona basketball would be fun in the Big XII though. 

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Satchel

Satchel 6932

Posted
Posted
53 minutes ago, Okie State said:
54 minutes ago, Satchel said:
Since the Big 12 went from having the second most AAU members to just one, it could use the smoke Cal brings as the best public Ivy.

But what does that have to do with TV contracts?

Academic profiles have a bearing in that have the potential to enhance brands and grow research dollars of member institutions. The B1G appears to attach the most value to academics. The Sec has improved its AAU profile dramatically, with 2 of its last three invitees helping in that effort. Only the naive among us don’t understand how academics will be used to widen the divide between the haves and have nots.

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LTbear

LTbear 4168

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11 minutes ago, Satchel said:

Academic profiles have a bearing in that have the potential to enhance brands and grow research dollars of member institutions. The B1G appears to attach the most value to academics. The Sec has improved its AAU profile dramatically, with 2 of its last three invitees helping in that effort. Only the naive among us don’t understand how academics will be used to widen the divide between the haves and have nots.

Cal being in the Big XII would not grow the research dollars of any current Big XII school (and I say this as a Cal alum). 

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Trojan Man

Trojan Man 429

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46 minutes ago, Chopper said:

The p12 cheerleaders, headed by Mandel and Canzano, claim the p12 will get a higher number than the b12. I can't see how that happens and I can't see why amazon would have any interest in putting p12 games on their platform. Nor why OR or WA would give a multi-year GOR to be tied with amazon.

 

Mandel was cheerfully writing the Big 12's eulogy after the Texas/Oklahoma to SEC news broke and would have been happier than a pig in shit if the Pac 12 finished off the Big 12 by poaching Oklahoma State and Texas Tech around that time while leaving the rest of the Big 12 dead in a ditch.  I don't remember much talk of "strength in numbers" and regret over the least desirable Big 12 teams getting relegated to a midmajor conference when it looked like the Pac 12 could kill the Big 12.  Now that the tables have turned he thinks this competition is stupid and wants the Big 12 leftovers and the Pac 12 leftovers to sit around the campfire singing Kumbaya and jerking each other off, no more of this mean poaching business.  He's normally a pretty good CFB writer but he is unbearable on this topic.

What would be stupid is for the Big 12, who clearly has the upper hand, to take on all of the Pac 12's deadweight and baggage when they're in an excellent position to cherry pick only the best available programs and let the others fall to the MWC.  Not the Big 12's problem to worry about or subsidize Oregon State and Washington State and Cal, just like it wasn't the Pac 12's problem to worry about or subsidize Kansas State and Baylor and Iowa State in August 2021.

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