Realignment talk not going away

[closetojumping 62786]

17 hours ago, USC_TMB said:

From what I’ve seen, they just play a different game than other major schools. They make their bones on the academic side, and the success on the athletic side is a bonus (think Vanderbilt but with good athletics). Despite an endowment in the multiple $10’s of billions, they cut like 11 (IIRC) sports a couple of years ago. I believe football is the only non money-losing sport. Alumni will donate to endow sports, but it’s not a rabid fan base from what I’ve seen, I’m probably way off

Those sports didn’t get cut due to alums showing up and demanding to be able to endow each of those sports. 

[closetohumping 17460]

Feels like 2024 is the year

[Gidnik 3285]

 

[derpyhorndog 2572]

28 minutes ago, Gidnik said:

 

 

Full article below.

And pro tip for anyone who similarly unsubscribed from The Athletic when they decided to partner with Looch: go to Archive.ph, drop in the URL of the article, hit "save" and let it do its thing. Also works for other paywalled articles (ESPN+ etc.).

Spoiler

Texas, Oklahoma SEC-bound in 2024 as tone shifts in Big 12? What we’re hearing.

At the Big 12’s basketball media day in October, new commissioner Brett Yormark spoke definitively about Oklahoma and Texas’ timeline for joining the SEC. “They’re going to be here through ‘25,” he told reporters. “They’ve committed themselves in advance of me getting here, and they’ve reiterated that commitment.”

 

Behind the scenes, though, that’s no longer the case.

 

Multiple sources confirmed to The Athletic that discussions have been ongoing for several months regarding the Red River rivals leaving the Big 12 a year earlier than planned, in time for the 2024 football season. Big 12 officials held a meeting last week in Las Vegas, and in the portion of the meeting in which Texas athletic director Chris Del Conte and Oklahoma athletic director Joe Castiglione were recused because officials were discussing future business, “momentum” emerged for an early exit, according to an administrator within the SEC. An administrator within the Big 12 confirmed that the tone in the league regarding this topic shifted following that meeting.

 

“They’re definitely engaged on it and moving towards something where they will leave after next season,” a Big 12 school official said.

 

“It’s likely they are leaving early,” said a person with knowledge of the discussions.

 

One Big 12 school official said he believes there will be resolution in a matter of weeks, not months, and that the issue may be contributing to a delay in releasing the league’s 2023 football schedule. That official echoed others who believe an earlier divorce would benefit all parties involved.

 

The Action Network first reported on the discussions.

 

The timing of such a move would make sense on several fronts. The SEC’s new television deal with ESPN begins that season. So will the 12-team College Football Playoff. And if it happens, the SEC’s expansion to 16 teams would coincide with the Big Ten’s, with the league adding USC and UCLA in ’24. Meanwhile, four new schools — BYU, Cincinnati, Houston and UCF — will be beginning Big 12 play next season.

 

But there are several hurdles still to be cleared in the negotiations among the various parties. Here’s where things stand, based on conversations this week with numerous sources.

 

Why were Texas and Oklahoma waiting until 2025?

At the time the schools announced their intent to leave the Big 12, in July 2021, they remained bound by the conference’s Grant of Rights for another four years. Both schools announced then and have consistently reiterated since then their intent to honor that commitment, ostensibly to avoid incurring hefty buyout fees.

 

According to the Big 12’s bylaws, a departing member would forfeit its final two years of conference revenue distributions. Given the conference distributed an average $42.6 million per school in 2021-22 and those payouts usually increase annually, each school’s bill could conceivably approach $90 million.

 

However, negotiations are underway to determine a reduced amount that would satisfy both the conference and Oklahoma and Texas. The programs will see a significant increase in revenue once they join the SEC.

 

Why would the Big 12 agree to a reduced buyout?

Multiple sources indicated that both sides are eager to move on from each other. The Big 12’s new members arrive next season, creating an awkward two-year period with 14 schools, and the league recently gained clarity on its financial future post-Oklahoma/Texas, signing a six-year $2.28 billion extension with ESPN and Fox that will begin in 2025.

 

But the remaining members won’t let OU and Texas go if it means seeing their 2024-25 check from the conference dip. The league’s network partners would be owed compensation for lost value in that final year of their current contracts — and Texas and Oklahoma happen to be the most valuable members. Former commissioner Bob Bowlsby told the Texas state legislature last year that the two schools account for roughly 50 percent of the current contract’s value, which as of 2019-20 was worth about $25 million per school.

 

More often than not, when a school leaves a conference, the two sides wind up negotiating a reduced exit fee.

Texas A&M and Missouri each paid a reduced fee of $12.4 million to leave the Big 12 in 2012, about half the full penalty at the time. Cincinnati, Houston and UCF agreed to $18 million settlements with the AAC earlier this year. A person familiar with the discussions suggested that number amounts to about 1.75x the media revenue they would have received from the AAC over two years.

 

“So that’s $45 million or $50 million (for a Big 12 school) right there.”

What role do ESPN and Fox play in these decisions?

While neither TV partner can force a conference member to stay or leave, they directly impact the negotiations.

Fox’s part is fairly straightforward. It will expect a substantial makegood if Texas and Oklahoma leave early. Worth noting: Fox has the first pick of Big 12 games in 2024, and that pick is often the Red River Showdown. A reduced payment amount or some other financial compensation would need to be negotiated.

 

ESPN, meanwhile, will own those schools’ 2024 rights whether they remain in the Big 12 or move to the SEC. There’s long been speculation the network would want OU and Texas in the SEC sooner to be part of the Game of the Week package that currently airs on CBS. ESPN is paying a reported $330 million a year for that game alone.

 

However, those rights would be a lot less expensive if the schools remain in the Big 12 for another year. SEC schools made $54.6 million in conference revenue last year compared with $42.6 million for Big 12 schools, and that number will increase with the new ESPN deal. And the SEC is attempting to renegotiate that deal to an even higher number, the SEC administrator said, as it was completed before Texas and Oklahoma signed on, and because it will likely soon go from eight to nine conference games.

How will this all play out?

Two Big 12 ADs expressed confidence a deal would be reached. Simply put, they need OU and Texas to agree to a high enough exit fee to make the remaining members and their network partners whole.

 

A person with knowledge of the discussions believes they’ll get there.

 

“The compensation for (leaving early) would cancel out a gap that exists in their television deals for the remaining eight that were original Big 12 members,” he said.

 

A noteworthy landmark is fast approaching. Per Big 12 bylaws, a member must give at least an 18-month notice of its departure date. That letter would have to arrive by Dec. 31 if they intend to join the SEC on July 1, 2024.

 

But like all things in realignment, that, too, could be negotiated.

 

Edited December 16, 2022 by derpyhorndog

[MirrOlure 14826]

That’s all good and fine. But when are these needledick motherfuckers announcing the 2023 schedule???

[bullet 1597]

6 hours ago, Gidnik said:

 

Finally!

 

At least---almost finally.  Still have to make Fox happy.

I never expected 2021 or 2022.  Thought it would be 2023 or maybe 2024.  When ESPN got the SEC CBS contract, then it looked like 2024 was the likely date.  Hopefully it gets done.

[Gidnik 3285]

 

[Gidnik 3285]

 

[statsman 5477]

Screw that. Not with Big XII crews. 
 

I’ve got a better idea. How about they fuck themselves. 

Edited December 17, 2022 by statsman

[Horn Dog 9904]

So if UT and OU wait till 2025 is the buyout $0?  It seems B12 would be incentivized to find a deal if the value is zero 1yr later.

[TKthunder2 4997]

1 hour ago, Horn Dog said:

So if UT and OU wait till 2025 is the buyout $0?  It seems B12 would be incentivized to find a deal if the value is zero 1yr later.

The buyout would be $0 because the GOR ends after 2024, but the EXIT FEE (2 seasons of our conference payout) would still apply though when the 4 new teams join the exit fee will decrease some as our payout will be decreasing some.

To leave early we’d have to pay the exit fee (which could be negotiated down), and get ESPN/FOX and the Big12 to release us from the GOR.

To leave after 2024 it’s just the exit fee.

ESPN and the Big 12 sound like they want us to move in 2024, but FOX would lose any access to UT/OU so trading OOC games is the only chip we can offer to give them makeup games in the future.

ESPN could trade some of their Big 12 tier one inventory to make FOX play ball, but that assumes they’d come to an agreement on value of UT/OU versus the remaining B12. Since historically the vast majority of tier one Big 12 games are for UT/OU, would ESPN have to give up 50% of their 2024 t1 B12 inventory or would FOX demand 100% or more that would stretch into 2025+? As soon as FOX agrees to a value this whole thing will get wrapped up.

[Deej 76899]

10 hours ago, Horn Dog said:

So if UT and OU wait till 2025 is the buyout $0?  It seems B12 would be incentivized to find a deal if the value is zero 1yr later.

They'd rather revel in their pettiness than get paid. 

[billfromlaketravis 11522]

13 hours ago, Gidnik said:

 

But, why?

[Magus Ossis 2836]

It’s the football equivalent to the old joke: Q why are divorces so expensive?

A Because they’re worth it.

(disclaimer I am happily married and am not advocating divorce)

[camel at sea 589]

22 hours ago, Gidnik said:

 

This sounds like a concession the Texas-based Big 12 schools want from UT.  Given how outspoken Mike Gundy has been about the topic, it would be pretty funny if FOX / the Big 12 twisted Oklahoma State's arm and forced them to schedule OU OOC.  

IMO, the easiest way to help FOX out would be to let them air the Texas-Michigan, OU-Michigan games (in Austin and Norman, respectively) which will occur over the next few years.  Throw in a RRS on FOX and everyone should be able to go their separate ways.  

 

[thunderlounge 7916]

[Horn of Gabriel 1670]

Has there been any reporting on if the $10M UCLA -> Cal subsidy is a 1-time deal or an every-year deal?

[closetohumping 17460]

3 hours ago, Horn of Gabriel said:

Has there been any reporting on if the $10M UCLA -> Cal subsidy is a 1-time deal or an every-year deal?

Every year I think but don’t matter utsa isn’t a part of the big 12

[TKthunder2 4997]

4 hours ago, Horn of Gabriel said:

Has there been any reporting on if the $10M UCLA -> Cal subsidy is a 1-time deal or an every-year deal?

To be seen, it been purposely kept vague. Allows them to save face like they are doing something. It’s being talked about as permanent but they are setting the value based on what the PAC12’s TV deal will be versus the Big Ten’s. Logic says this is just to satisfy and tamp down the anger around the move for the next 5 years or so and then it will disappear once cooler heads prevail. This opens a can of worms since all the other UC schools could demand similar tax to help their mental wellness budgets for their basketball teams and end up having Cal/UCLA subsidize Irvine/Riverside/SanDiego/SantaBarbara/Davis.

[Laxtonto 12092]

 

So the SBJ is saying that the best case deal for the Pac12 is a slight bit more than the B12 and it will all be on Amazon except for a slight carve out on CBS...

So at this point if I was one of the 4 corner schools it is time to bail. This is like the Pac12N on steroids with all your media eggs on a digital platform which means very little to the common fan.

[USC_TMB 405]

2 hours ago, Laxtonto said:

 

So the SBJ is saying that the best case deal for the Pac12 is a slight bit more than the B12 and it will all be on Amazon except for a slight carve out on CBS...

So at this point if I was one of the 4 corner schools it is time to bail. This is like the Pac12N on steroids with all your media eggs on a digital platform which means very little to the common fan.

I wonder how much this adds to ucla’s ransom money

[BurntOrange&White 39973]

3 hours ago, Laxtonto said:

 

So the SBJ is saying that the best case deal for the Pac12 is a slight bit more than the B12 and it will all be on Amazon except for a slight carve out on CBS...

So at this point if I was one of the 4 corner schools it is time to bail. This is like the Pac12N on steroids with all your media eggs on a digital platform which means very little to the common fan.

That honestly sounds like a shit deal....

Basically you won't be on a network unless your "primetime" game. 

Big 12 still could restructure the deal if they add more as well I believe. 

 

[Laxtonto 12092]

2 minutes ago, BurntOrange&White said:

That honestly sounds like a shit deal....

Basically you won't be on a network unless your "primetime" game. 

Big 12 still could restructure the deal if they add more as well I believe. 

 

Funny enough, it is a shit deal but might still be a step up from the Pac12 Network debacle.

But if I were a University President or AD, this would be a discouraging sign. I don't care how tech savvy the west-coast thinks they are, not being on air/cable makes it a complete loss for the casual fan and unless you have a vested interest in the program or league or are completely stream dependent for your sporting options, your not swapping over to prime to see whats on.

Worse, if I am tied to online only, what keeps me from hoping on say streameast and throw up multiple streams that are being bounced off of prime instead of dealing with their login?

[89Horn 1546]

55 minutes ago, USC_TMB said:

I wonder how much this adds to ucla’s ransom money

Enough for a new station of PCs at UC-Irvine’s library and a new bicycle rack at UC-Riverside?  Maybe?  I mean, Berkeley can’t get everything.

[thunderlounge 7916]

Who’s left in the pac, or will be, that would actually sign up for amazon prime to watch those games?

They’re properly fucked if that’s the “best” option. 

[camel at sea 589]

47 minutes ago, BurntOrange&White said:

That honestly sounds like a shit deal....

Basically you won't be on a network unless your "primetime" game. 

Big 12 still could restructure the deal if they add more as well I believe. 

I'd like to know how many "a handful" represents for their CBS inventory.  If that number isn't double-digits, I think even Oregon and Washington would have to start seriously considering the Big 12 as a fallback option for not having a Big Ten invite currently.  Very, very few college football fans are going to switch viewing interfaces on Saturdays to check out what's happening in the PAC.  ESPN and FOX won't have a significant financial reason to talk about PAC inventory, either. That's going to be a major issue for recruiting.  

The PAC needs way more than "slightly" more money than the Big 12 to justify the exposure hit they are going to take.  

[Laxtonto 12092]

14 minutes ago, thunderlounge said:

Who’s left in the pac, or will be, that would actually sign up for amazon prime to watch those games?

They’re properly fucked if that’s the “best” option. 

Without USC and UCLA to drive tv numbers, I am really curious what the “engagement” numbers would actually look like. Without being digital only there are a few ways to manipulate traffic and viewer numbers. The problem is with a select few games farmed to CBS (I expect this to be the weekly big ranked matchup and if not available default to Oregon) what big fan base is going to be there to drive digital engagement impressions?

 

Part of the value of college athletics is to provide a “front porch” to the university through branding and visual reach. How does that happen when most teams are going to be relegated to prime? How would you feel as say the AD or President of AU or ASU knowing that you won’t get any real tangible return for the university brand as a whole with this deal. All this does is make the AD “whole” from a revenue escalation perspective to not be left behind from the other P5s. It does little to nothing for expanding the brand or attract new student/talent to the university.

 

If this is the “deal”, I am real curious how many schools are already panicking and looking to move ASAP.

[camel at sea 589]

54 minutes ago, Laxtonto said:

Without USC and UCLA to drive tv numbers, I am really curious what the “engagement” numbers would actually look like. Without being digital only there are a few ways to manipulate traffic and viewer numbers. The problem is with a select few games farmed to CBS (I expect this to be the weekly big ranked matchup and if not available default to Oregon) what big fan base is going to be there to drive digital engagement impressions?

Part of the value of college athletics is to provide a “front porch” to the university through branding and visual reach. How does that happen when most teams are going to be relegated to prime? How would you feel as say the AD or President of AU or ASU knowing that you won’t get any real tangible return for the university brand as a whole with this deal. All this does is make the AD “whole” from a revenue escalation perspective to not be left behind from the other P5s. It does little to nothing for expanding the brand or attract new student/talent to the university.

If this is the “deal”, I am real curious how many schools are already panicking and looking to move ASAP.

I'm pretty curious about the behind-the-scenes of this deal. I can't understand why the Presidents or the ADs would be okay with it. The only hypothetical winner in this is Kliavkoff because now he gets to say the PAC's payouts would be better than the Big 12.  There's no way he negotiated the deal without input, though.

If I'm Arizona or Colorado, I'm jumping ship over this deal and I'd imagine others will be behind them.  Even Oregon and Washington might have to re-think a Big 12 option if the Big Ten doesn't have an invite on its way.        

[bullet 1597]

On 12/17/2022 at 6:26 PM, camel at sea said:

This sounds like a concession the Texas-based Big 12 schools want from UT.  Given how outspoken Mike Gundy has been about the topic, it would be pretty funny if FOX / the Big 12 twisted Oklahoma State's arm and forced them to schedule OU OOC.  

IMO, the easiest way to help FOX out would be to let them air the Texas-Michigan, OU-Michigan games (in Austin and Norman, respectively) which will occur over the next few years.  Throw in a RRS on FOX and everyone should be able to go their separate ways.  

 

Actually it sounds more like what Fox wants to keep them whole.

[berlinerbaer 678]

That shit deal would serve this cord-cutting Prime subscriber just fine.

[Assman 1830]

On 12/16/2022 at 6:23 PM, Gidnik said:

 

Big 12 schools not named Texas or OU:  "GTFO.  We don't need you anymore."

Texas and OU: "Ok bye"

Other schools: "Well, could you like, still play us though?"

Get fucked.  Enjoy your BYU/Cincy Big 12 championship.

[billfromlaketravis 11522]

As predicted Big Tech bails out the Pac 10. 

Where is CBS going to place a Pac game? They're sure as shit not making their affiliates run a Pac game over the re-runs of NCIS and the local news. I think CBS Sports Network is more likely. So best case, UW and Oregon are on CBSSN a handful of times a year. 

I'm not buying Dodd's Big 12 concession bullshit. Burton is already on record of saying the Texas brass have no interest in playing Tech anymore after the latest Lubbock shenanigans. 

And then there's Gundy's public statements about playing OU. The guy is such a hothead, I wouldn't be surprised if he retired if Okie State scheduled OU. 

 

 

[TKthunder2 4997]

CBS has been expanding their coverage they now have deals for the service academies and the MWC, but you are right historically, outside of 1-2 Saturdays a year they don’t carry a game in Prime Time. With NBC getting exclusive rights to the prime time Big Ten the PAC is hoping they still want a few 7pm kickoffs and will play ball.

Since it’s sounds like FOX/ESPN won’t pay, getting a combo deal with CBS for a few prime time games, and possibly NBC for a few 230 kicks when they do NOT have a Notre Dame home game to broadcast (even if it’s just to get a token contract to get ND@Stanford every other year) might get them enough visibility to pull off an Amazon streaming deal.

But all in all this isn’t going to go well for the Arizona schools. Utah is good enough to get some visibility, and Colorado with their new coach might get some novelty attention. But I would be shocked if Arizona or ASU somehow end up benefiting from this arrangement.

[statsman 5477]

So, is this why 2024 for Texit? To free room for desired B12 adds? If that’s the case, great! We don’t need to offer shit. 
 

(and I still believe that through a combination of never voting to admit UH and the others, sovereign immunity, and having a law school and a bunch of money, UT can sabotage the 2023 schedule plans. Maybe we don’t win the legal struggle, but does the B12 really want a very public disparaging of its new members?

Edited December 20, 2022 by statsman

[Zeus 6125]

Fuck cougar high and fuck the rig 12

[closetohumping 17460]

1 hour ago, statsman said:

So, is this why 2024 for Texit? To free room for desired B12 adds? If that’s the case, great! We don’t need to offer shit. 
 

(and I still believe that through a combination of never voting to admit UH and the others, sovereign immunity, and having a law school and a bunch of money, UT can sabotage the 2023 schedule plans. Maybe we don’t win the legal struggle, but does the B12 really want a very public disparaging of its new members?

Doesn’t strike me as something cdc or our admin want to do. I think we’re just gonna leave in 24

[TKthunder2 4997]

4 hours ago, statsman said:

So, is this why 2024 for Texit? To free room for desired B12 adds? If that’s the case, great! We don’t need to offer shit. 
 

(and I still believe that through a combination of never voting to admit UH and the others, sovereign immunity, and having a law school and a bunch of money, UT can sabotage the 2023 schedule plans. Maybe we don’t win the legal struggle, but does the B12 really want a very public disparaging of its new members?

ESPN doesn’t get the SEC’s tier one rights until 2024. Texas and Oklahoma’s first big time SEC games will get major ratings (Think about when we played Alabama, LSU, or Georgia) and if those games occurred in 2023 CBS would own those. 2024 was always the most likely date for those move just due to the way these contracts were laid out.

[mdmost 43035]

I was hoping we'd get at least one Texas OU on CBS before they moved on to the Big 10. 

[bullet 1597]

12 hours ago, TKthunder2 said:

CBS has been expanding their coverage they now have deals for the service academies and the MWC, but you are right historically, outside of 1-2 Saturdays a year they don’t carry a game in Prime Time. With NBC getting exclusive rights to the prime time Big Ten the PAC is hoping they still want a few 7pm kickoffs and will play ball.

Since it’s sounds like FOX/ESPN won’t pay, getting a combo deal with CBS for a few prime time games, and possibly NBC for a few 230 kicks when they do NOT have a Notre Dame home game to broadcast (even if it’s just to get a token contract to get ND@Stanford every other year) might get them enough visibility to pull off an Amazon streaming deal.

But all in all this isn’t going to go well for the Arizona schools. Utah is good enough to get some visibility, and Colorado with their new coach might get some novelty attention. But I would be shocked if Arizona or ASU somehow end up benefiting from this arrangement.

CBS has the afternoon slot with the Big 10.  So the noon slot wouldn't work with the Pac.  It would have to be prime time against the Big 10 on NBC and the SEC or ACC on ABC.

[bullet 1597]

Plus, the Big 12 might well be on Fox.

['stache 21844]

14 hours ago, Assman said:

Big 12 schools not named Texas or OU:  "GTFO.  We don't need you anymore."

Texas and OU: "Ok bye"

Other schools: "Well, could you like, still play us though?"

Get fucked.  Enjoy your BYU/Cincy Big 12 championship.

Are you seriously under the impression that Big 12 school administrators are the same as fans who post comments on facebook? Hint, the administrators are all grown up and act like grownups (except aggy but they are their own mess). Also, Bowlsby doesn't count, I think everyone hated him. This is all being driven by the media companies. If ESPN can obtain a smaller buyout by guaranteeing some cross-conference broadcast matchups, they'll get it done, if it provides them with value.

[Magus Ossis 2836]

If the rumor that Iger is under pressure to sell off ABC and ESPN is true, I wonder how that may affect negotiations for Texas/OU to SEC for '24.

[billfromlaketravis 11522]

5 hours ago, bullet said:

CBS has the afternoon slot with the Big 10.  So the noon slot wouldn't work with the Pac.  It would have to be prime time against the Big 10 on NBC and the SEC or ACC on ABC.

Precisely. CBS will get a much better number on their Saturday original programming/local news than even the best PAC game. The House that Nike Built will be be playing primetime games on CBSSN. 

[Hurtlocker 2213]

5 hours ago, Magus Ossis said:

If the rumor that Iger is under pressure to sell off ABC and ESPN is true, I wonder how that may affect negotiations for Texas/OU to SEC for '24.

Wouldn't shock me if ESPN was spun off before 2024.   Disney is such a huge IP company now and doesn't want to get messy in gambling.   Cash in.

[bullet 1597]

8 hours ago, Hurtlocker said:

Wouldn't shock me if ESPN was spun off before 2024.   Disney is such a huge IP company now and doesn't want to get messy in gambling.   Cash in.

There's nothing wholesome about Disney anymore.

[Pancho 44967]

Aggy are weird

 

[Al_4_ISU 12478]

Jesus, that's some fan fiction shit right there.

And if the Big 10 had any interest in Kansas, they'd have added them a long time ago.

Edited December 21, 2022 by Al_4_ISU

[Nueces River Rat 5539]

7 minutes ago, Pancho said:

Aggy are weird

 

I wonder how many aggy believe this crap?

[closetohumping 17460]

24 minutes ago, Pancho said:

Aggy are weird

 

Sounds like wishful thinking

[billfromlaketravis 11522]

53 minutes ago, Nueces River Rat said:

I wonder how many aggy believe this crap?

Plenty. They won't believe it until Texas plays their first SEC Conference game.