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Realignment talk not going away

The Tower

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Posted by Sandbagging Steve,

How many teams will be left when the dust settles in a few years? I think there's a way for all the teams to still have some involvement. I will explain that at the end of this list. Here's my list of the top 32 programs and a list if it goes to 48. There's some debate if it goes to 48, but not much debate if it stops at 32. I guess one could debate Arizona State, but that's about it. The top 32 at least come close to carrying their own weight. Everyone below that line is losing money for t

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Aggy should abstain so the vote is 13-0 and then we can then brand it on their dog.

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Trojan Man

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1 hour ago, statsman said:

It would be very, very stupid of the B12 to take in Oregon. Oregon recruits Texas and California, and just lost exposure in Southern California. They have more NIL money than any remaining B12 school. 

I think the Big 12 landing Oregon would be a major win.  Oregon isn't going head to head with Texas Tech and West Virginia and Oklahoma State for recruits.  Nobody remaining in the Big 12 will see their recruiting suffer if Oregon joins.  Texas and Oklahoma both outclass the rest of the Big 12 in NIL and recruiting yet it's TCU that just played in the title game and Kansas State that just won the conference, so success against richer and more talented programs isn't impossible for Big 12 schools.  Oregon is the closest thing to a nationally relevant flagship school the Big 12 could hope to add, plus getting them likely bags Washington too.

There are a couple drawbacks to adding Oregon, though.  The first is they will still be openly pining for a B1G invitation (Washington as well) and I could understand if the Big 12 schools decided they were done dealing with that drama in their daily lives.  The next is state politicians trying to tack on Oregon State or Washington State to any Oregon/Washington realignment.  Those are both MWC schools masquerading as P5 schools.  They cancel out any value Oregon/Washington would bring and that should kill the possibility of any Pacific Northwest expansion.  The B1G problem might resolve itself if the next commissioner is strongly against further expansion but the little brother problem will be trickier.

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BurntOrange&White

BurntOrange&White 39,934

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8 hours ago, statsman said:

It would be very, very stupid of the B12 to take in Oregon. Oregon recruits Texas and California, and just lost exposure in Southern California. They have more NIL money than any remaining B12 school. 



If you want to make a power move for improving the overall value of your contract and football for a conference then Oregon and Washington are the two biggest prizes out west. That would be a major win for the Big 12 and would essentially kill the PAC.

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Mitch Cumsteen

Mitch Cumsteen 18,550

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6 minutes ago, BurntOrange&White said:

Yeah lets all make under 16 million a year from the TV deal!

Correct me if I’m wrong but I don’t think the payout for Texas and Oklahoma gets cut. It’s the 8 leftovers that agreed to subsidize the newcomers by taking a haircut. We’re still getting our normal cut plus lhn third tier cash, right?

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Laxtonto

Laxtonto 12,090

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39 minutes ago, mdmost said:

 

From the ESPN article that dropped

Quote

Sources said the sides couldn't agree on how to create equitable value for what Fox would lose in 2024 -- the equivalent of seven football games featuring Oklahoma and Texas that command premium advertising.

 

Note that this is no longer about the B12, this is all Fox. Also by slowing down Texas/OU this slows down the potential poaching of the Pac12 which means it gives Fox more time to decide how they want to deal with the potential of the B10 and westward expansion.

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LTtxfan

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5 minutes ago, Laxtonto said:

From the ESPN article that dropped...

Note that this is no longer about the B12, this is all Fox. Also by slowing down Texas/OU this slows down the potential poaching of the Pac12 which means it gives Fox more time to decide how they want to deal with the potential of the B10 and westward expansion.

FOX wants ratings that Texas and "Arch" will bring when Arch starts playing, most likely in 2024.  Ratings and interest will be crazy high, so the Ad money that FOX will get is likely to be off the charts.

Texas and blOU are now being held hostage by FOX -- not the B12.

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Chuckie Finster

Chuckie Finster 22,696

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Posted (edited)
15 minutes ago, Laxtonto said:

From the ESPN article that dropped

 

Note that this is no longer about the B12, this is all Fox. Also by slowing down Texas/OU this slows down the potential poaching of the Pac12 which means it gives Fox more time to decide how they want to deal with the potential of the B10 and westward expansion.

UT should counter with an analysis of how much money Fox cost the University of Texas and Austin by putting the biggest home game in 15 years at 11 fucking AM in September.

Edited by Chuckie Finster
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Laxtonto

Laxtonto 12,090

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6 minutes ago, LTtxfan said:

FOX wants ratings that Texas and "Arch" will bring when Arch starts playing, most likely in 2024.  Ratings and interest will be crazy high, so the Ad money that FOX will get is likely to be off the charts.

Texas and blOU are now being held hostage by FOX -- not the B12.

 

5 minutes ago, Chuckie Finster said:

UT should counter with an analysis of how much money Fox cost the University of Texas and Austin by putting the biggest home game in 15 years at 11 fucking AM in September.

One of my first questions is how does FOX know that there are 7 premium games with Texas and/or OU that demand premium advertising without knowing the 2025 schedule already?

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Laxtonto

Laxtonto 12,090

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Just now, BurntOrange&White said:

Fox only has like what 1 year remaining of pick first games?

3 minutes ago, Thiefery said:

every game that features us or ou in this conference is a premium game in their eyes

The number 7 is what is weird to me.  So unless that is max number of picks Fox gets from the B12, they have to have the schedule. If they do not have the schedule and then is just the max potential picks FOX has first dibs on, it is a massive slap in the face for all the other schools in the B12 and a signal how big of a deal losing Texas and OU is and how fucked the future media rights are for the B12 in Fox's eyes.

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HouTex

HouTex 1,878

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7 minutes ago, Gidnik said:

Also, do we say make a fair deal or to court we go and kiss us right in the sovereign immunity?

Unless we go independent the SI defense won’t really help.  If we join the SEC early then the SEC will be brought into the suit.  SEC (wisely) won’t take us unless the TV issues are resolved.

The July 2021 posts in this thread are even more hysterical now.  

On the big, evil Fox Sports, why should it give up its rights under an existing contract?  None of us should or would without compensation.  Maybe Fox is overplaying its hand, but no one should blame them for trying to get what it’s entitled to. 

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Texas Wahoo

Texas Wahoo 3,397

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1 hour ago, BurntOrange&White said:

Just fucking pay whatever the fuck we have to, jesus christ. Stupid ass mother fucking Deloss Dodds

The problem is the grant of rights.  The Big 12 owns our TV rights for 2024 and do not have to sell them back to us unless they want to, and they likely do not want to unless it makes both Fox and the Big 12 money.

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Trojan Man

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35 minutes ago, Laxtonto said:

Note that this is no longer about the B12, this is all Fox. Also by slowing down Texas/OU this slows down the potential poaching of the Pac12 which means it gives Fox more time to decide how they want to deal with the potential of the B10 and westward expansion.

I don't think that's a consideration at all.  If the B1G wanted more Pac 12 teams at this time they would have already invited them.  They could join at the same time as USC and UCLA with no media contract/GOR holdups since the Pac 12 hasn't renewed their media deal yet.  There is no reason for the B1G/Fox to procrastinate if they are interested in adding more Pac 12 teams, all that can bring is headaches.  I agree with what @Texas Wahoo just said.  Fox likely wants the major 2024 story to be USC/UCLA joining the B1G so they are doing what they can to postpone Texas/Oklahoma to the SEC for another year.

7 minutes ago, mdmost said:

Joel Klatt always talks about Texas OU as a game Fox wants to do, only behind tOSU/Michigan. I believe ABC gets first choice this year so that means they'll get tOSU/Michigan. 

The B1G is officially done with ESPN/ABC starting 2023.  All their games will be on Fox, NBC, CBS or BTN now.  In 2023 CBS will broadcast part B1G part SEC, starting 2024 it's all B1G.

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mdmost

mdmost 43,004

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1 minute ago, Not a Sock said:

I wonder if the UM and OSU games are now under threat, Texas at the Big House and Horse Shoe are worth 10x shitty non cons vs Tech and KSU I wonder if UT and OU are threatening to basically never schedule a Fox program again.

Michigan comes to Austin in 2024. I wonder if that was required by Fox as a game they get for us to leave. I could see ABC wanting that game if they got first choice. 

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Not a Sock

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1 minute ago, mdmost said:

Michigan comes to Austin in 2024. I wonder if that was required by Fox as a game they get for us to leave. I could see ABC wanting that game if they got first choice. 

What are the penalties on canceling a home and home? Texas could really fuck Fox, play UM at DKR on ABC and then cancel the return trip to UM in 2026 so Fox gets nothing.

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field

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https://www.espn.com/college-football/story/_/id/35581970/ou-texas-join-sec-25-exit-talks-stall-sources-say

Spoiler

The negotiations for Oklahoma and Texas to leave the Big 12 a year early and join the SEC in 2024 have stalled and a deal is not expected to come to fruition, sources told ESPN on Friday morning.

After weeks of negotiations, Texas and Oklahoma are still slated to join the SEC in 2025. Sources said the parties couldn't come to terms amid a complex negotiation involving two schools, two networks (ESPN and Fox) and the Big 12.

Sources said the sides couldn't agree on how to create equitable value for what Fox would lose in 2024 -- the equivalent of seven football games featuring Oklahoma and Texas that command premium advertising.

The negotiations heated up over the past few days, with the Big 12 meetings late this week doubling as an unofficial deadline to get a deal done.

The timeline in play -- the 2024 season -- leaves some ambiguity and small potential for a Hail Mary revival, but the strong expectation remains that Oklahoma and Texas will play in the 14-team Big 12 in 2023 and 2024.

"There's no formal timeline or brink from which you can't come back," an industry source said. "But this is where things are right now -- a deal is unlikely."

Ever since Oklahoma and Texas agreed to join the SEC in the summer of 2021, there has been a drumbeat of conversation surrounding whether they would be able to leave the Big 12 early. The schools are contractually committed to play through the 2024 football season, covering four full seasons since the decision to switch conferences. In the recent history of conference realignment, that is an unprecedented amount of time to play out as a departing member.

It was always unlikely that they would leave before that final year of the deal, 2024, as the dynamics of scheduling, the cost of departure and the way the television contracts were structured made any type of quicker move clunky. But with ESPN holding the entire rights to the SEC starting in 2024, the possibility always loomed of brokering a deal a year early.

Instead, Oklahoma and Texas are slated to play out the final seasons of their contracts with the Big 12.

 

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Michael Knight

Michael Knight 12,988

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22 minutes ago, Not a Sock said:

What are the penalties on canceling a home and home? Texas could really fuck Fox, play UM at DKR on ABC and then cancel the return trip to UM in 2026 so Fox gets nothing.

That would also fuck Michigan. Honestly you people ascribe way to much power to Texas with these stupid scenarios you dream up. We're Texas and we're stuck here until 2025 unless we're willing to part with way more money and we are never willing to part with more money. The powers that be don't give a fuck if we're in the SEC in 24 or 25.

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Not a Sock

Not a Sock 2,313

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1 minute ago, Michael Knight said:

That would also fuck Michigan. Honestly you people ascribe way to much power to Texas with these stupid scenarios you dream up. We're Texas and we're stuck here until 2025 unless we're willing to part with way more money and we are never willing to part with more money. The powers that be don't give a fuck if we're in the SEC in 24 or 25.

That’s Michigan’s and Fox problem, not Texas’s and the powers that be absolutely want OUT in the SEC/ESPN in 2024, to counter USC/UCLA in the Big 10/FOX. If you think there is some honesty  and good sportsmanship here I got some ocean front property to sell you.

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utee94

utee94 15,830

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6 minutes ago, Michael Knight said:

That would also fuck Michigan. Honestly you people ascribe way to much power to Texas with these stupid scenarios you dream up. We're Texas and we're stuck here until 2025 unless we're willing to part with way more money and we are never willing to part with more money. The powers that be don't give a fuck if we're in the SEC in 24 or 25.

Yup this is the reality.

Fox isn't "screwing us" or "holding us hostage."  They're just not letting us off the hook without being compensated for it.  

I believe they're definitely overplaying their hand and that our negotiating team is coming off as weak and ineffectual, but it's clear at this point that TPTB at Texas aren't nearly as concerned about when the move occurs, as the fans on this message board are.  They're not going to pay gobs of money to Fox to get out early and they're not going push it to the courts.  UT's negotiators have failed and there's no appetite for risk among the school's decision makers.  They just don't care enough about the departure date.

 

 

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closetohumping

closetohumping 17,444

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12 minutes ago, Michael Knight said:

That would also fuck Michigan. Honestly you people ascribe way to much power to Texas with these stupid scenarios you dream up. We're Texas and we're stuck here until 2025 unless we're willing to part with way more money and we are never willing to part with more money. The powers that be don't give a fuck if we're in the SEC in 24 or 25.

I would think ESPN would want us when their new deal with the sec starts right? Isn’t that 2024?

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Thiefery

Thiefery 5,010

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4 minutes ago, utee94 said:

Yup this is the reality.

Fox isn't "screwing us" or "holding us hostage."  They're just not letting us off the hook without being compensated for it.  

I believe they're definitely overplaying their hand and that our negotiating team is coming off as weak and ineffectual, but it's clear at this point that TPTB at Texas aren't nearly as concerned about when the move occurs, as the fans on this message board are.  They're not going to pay gobs of money to Fox to get out early and they're not going push it to the courts.  UT's negotiators have failed and there's no appetite for risk among the school's decision makers.  They just don't care enough about the departure date.

 

 

i wonder if CDC and Hatzell will have any say with TPTB on campus if they have a slow start to selling 2023 season tickets.. you know the stacked schedule we got going on this season... which will continue in 2024.

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closetohumping

closetohumping 17,444

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6 minutes ago, utee94 said:

Yup this is the reality.

Fox isn't "screwing us" or "holding us hostage."  They're just not letting us off the hook without being compensated for it.  

I believe they're definitely overplaying their hand and that our negotiating team is coming off as weak and ineffectual, but it's clear at this point that TPTB at Texas aren't nearly as concerned about when the move occurs, as the fans on this message board are.  They're not going to pay gobs of money to Fox to get out early and they're not going push it to the courts.  UT's negotiators have failed and there's no appetite for risk among the school's decision makers.  They just don't care enough about the departure date.

 

 

Do agree that maybe us and ou didn’t anticipate this.  Precedent was everyone else got to leave early so why not us?  

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