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Realignment talk not going away

The Tower

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Posted by Sandbagging Steve,

How many teams will be left when the dust settles in a few years? I think there's a way for all the teams to still have some involvement. I will explain that at the end of this list. Here's my list of the top 32 programs and a list if it goes to 48. There's some debate if it goes to 48, but not much debate if it stops at 32. I guess one could debate Arizona State, but that's about it. The top 32 at least come close to carrying their own weight. Everyone below that line is losing money for t

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Thiefery

Thiefery 5022

Posted
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10 minutes ago, closetohumping said:

Do agree that maybe us and ou didn’t anticipate this.  Precedent was everyone else got to leave early so why not us?  

I do think the leak that the move was being made screwed things up as far as the timeline.  We would have an expanded CFP this season, who knows if SC and UCLA would be going to the BiG next season.. perhaps the PAC would actually have expanded and taken a few schools from the Big12.. Them slow playing it, made the Big12 stronger because nobody wanted them.

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Aggy should abstain so the vote is 13-0 and then we can then brand it on their dog.

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Not a Sock

Not a Sock 2342

Posted
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5 minutes ago, closetohumping said:

Do agree that maybe us and ou didn’t anticipate this.  Precedent was everyone else got to leave early so why not us?  

Aggy royally fucked up a master play by Sankey and the SEC. The original plan was to expand and renew the playoffs in 2021-2022 with ESPN and announce UT OU to the SEC in 2023 for a clean break in 2025 from the big 12. Aggy blew the plan up by leaking OUT early hoping to kill the move and now we have been left scrambling.

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utee94

utee94 15883

Posted
Posted
17 minutes ago, Thiefery said:

i wonder if CDC and Hatzell will have any say with TPTB on campus if they have a slow start to selling 2023 season tickets.. you know the stacked schedule we got going on this season... which will continue in 2024.

Yeah I definitely think attitudes could change based on circumstances and perhaps some level of increased urgency could end up driving different behavior from our leaders.  But for now, I don't think they care that much.  At least, not enough to pay a bunch of money for the early exit.

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closetohumping

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6 minutes ago, Thiefery said:

I do think the leak that the move was being made screwed things up as far as the timeline.  We would have an expanded CFP this season, who knows if SC and UCLA would be going to the BiG next season.. perhaps the PAC would actually have expanded and taken a few schools from the Big12.. Them slow playing it, made the Big12 stronger because nobody wanted them.

 

6 minutes ago, Not a Sock said:

Aggy royally fucked up a master play by Sankey and the SEC. The original plan was to expand and renew the playoffs in 2021-2022 with ESPN and announce UT OU to the SEC in 2023 for a clean break in 2025 from the big 12. Aggy blew the plan up by leaking OUT early hoping to kill the move and now we have been left scrambling.

Yep.  End of the day, Aggy is gonna Aggy.  They're oblivious .

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Evil Bill Obrien

Evil Bill Obrien 3326

Posted
Posted (edited)
23 minutes ago, closetohumping said:

Do agree that maybe us and ou didn’t anticipate this.  Precedent was everyone else got to leave early so why not us?  

Guess maybe everyone should be flattered that UT (and OU) have media rights that someone has decided are worth fighting for, whereas all the other schools that have left the Big 12 were just told not to let the draft in when they open the door to leave...

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BurntOrange&White

BurntOrange&White 40449

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Posted (edited)
38 minutes ago, utee94 said:

Yup this is the reality.

Fox isn't "screwing us" or "holding us hostage."  They're just not letting us off the hook without being compensated for it.  

I believe they're definitely overplaying their hand and that our negotiating team is coming off as weak and ineffectual, but it's clear at this point that TPTB at Texas aren't nearly as concerned about when the move occurs, as the fans on this message board are.  They're not going to pay gobs of money to Fox to get out early and they're not going push it to the courts.  UT's negotiators have failed and there's no appetite for risk among the school's decision makers.  They just don't care enough about the departure date.

 

 

Then why advertise SEC on a video played for BMDs at DKR? Idk what to tell you if you think the school doesn’t care about all that increases payout from the SEC 

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Nueces River Rat

Nueces River Rat 5599

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48 minutes ago, field said:

https://www.espn.com/college-football/story/_/id/35581970/ou-texas-join-sec-25-exit-talks-stall-sources-say

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The negotiations for Oklahoma and Texas to leave the Big 12 a year early and join the SEC in 2024 have stalled and a deal is not expected to come to fruition, sources told ESPN on Friday morning.

After weeks of negotiations, Texas and Oklahoma are still slated to join the SEC in 2025. Sources said the parties couldn't come to terms amid a complex negotiation involving two schools, two networks (ESPN and Fox) and the Big 12.

Sources said the sides couldn't agree on how to create equitable value for what Fox would lose in 2024 -- the equivalent of seven football games featuring Oklahoma and Texas that command premium advertising.

The negotiations heated up over the past few days, with the Big 12 meetings late this week doubling as an unofficial deadline to get a deal done.

The timeline in play -- the 2024 season -- leaves some ambiguity and small potential for a Hail Mary revival, but the strong expectation remains that Oklahoma and Texas will play in the 14-team Big 12 in 2023 and 2024.

"There's no formal timeline or brink from which you can't come back," an industry source said. "But this is where things are right now -- a deal is unlikely."

Ever since Oklahoma and Texas agreed to join the SEC in the summer of 2021, there has been a drumbeat of conversation surrounding whether they would be able to leave the Big 12 early. The schools are contractually committed to play through the 2024 football season, covering four full seasons since the decision to switch conferences. In the recent history of conference realignment, that is an unprecedented amount of time to play out as a departing member.

It was always unlikely that they would leave before that final year of the deal, 2024, as the dynamics of scheduling, the cost of departure and the way the television contracts were structured made any type of quicker move clunky. But with ESPN holding the entire rights to the SEC starting in 2024, the possibility always loomed of brokering a deal a year early.

Instead, Oklahoma and Texas are slated to play out the final seasons of their contracts with the Big 12.

 

Who is the source?   FCB?

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Thiefery

Thiefery 5022

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Posted
7 minutes ago, BurntOrange&White said:

Then why advertise SEC on a video played for BMDs at DKR? Idk what to tell you if you think the school doesn’t care about all that increases payout from the SEC 

lol.. you should go to the aggy screenshot thread..  they think Ant Hill and others will hit the portal since Sark mislead them on being in the SEC in '24

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Hagbard Celine

Hagbard Celine 10996

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Posted
2 hours ago, Texas Wahoo said:

One thing I have not seen many people mention is the fact that USC and UCLA are joining the Big Ten in 2024.  I can see Fox wanting to have that be the biggest story for that season, thus not allowing Texas and OU to move until later.

chewbacca attack: horns & 0u sue the b1g to stop the '24 LA additions because they embiggen a cromulent situation

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DFW Horn

DFW Horn 6509

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40 minutes ago, Evil Bill Obrien said:

Guess maybe everyone should be flattered that UT (and OU) have media rights that someone has decided are worth fighting for, whereas all the other schools that have left the Big 12 were just told not to let the draft in when they open the door to leave...

Most everyone would rather be in the SEC now rather than later, but fuck it. The money doesn't work for FOX, the Big 12, or UT. Yeah, it's frustrating that aggy, CU, Corn, and Mizzou were able to break free easier and earlier. 

It'd be nice to win a Big 12 title or 2 on our way out the door, something UT hasn't done since 2009. It'd be even better to beat OU in the Big 12 Championship to do it.

 

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closetohumping

closetohumping 17547

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10 minutes ago, BurntOrange&White said:

"“Everybody, conceptually, is pretty close to a deal,” says one Big 12 source. “The hangup is Fox wants some inventory. If they get that figured out, they’re on the one-yard line.”

 

 

Fumbled at the 1 yard line again? haha

And this fuckery:

 

  1. The 99-year agreement: In 2012, the Big 12 schools entered into a 99-year agreement to remain together, a deal that comes with an exit fee of two years’ worth of gross revenue, or about $80 million each.
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BurntOrange&White

BurntOrange&White 40449

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Posted (edited)

So the number cited earlier was what 7 games by Fox allegeldy?


So lets give them 1 RRS in 2024

 

That leaves 6 games between Texas and OU and we could make them future  games.  To be aired on Fox with the opponent of Fox choosing for these dates crossed out/inserted because of OU's 2024 schedule

 

Looking at future schedules I've come up with this:

image.png.4d0c5a48ad25f863642afe1479d8a917.png

 

We essentially continue to play the schools in our UT system(UTEP/UTSA) but we replace the crossed out schools with the Big 12 opponent.

Oklahoma Adds a game in 2024 and they remove the kickoff matchups with UTEP and Illinois St with Big 12 opponents. 

Big 12 gets 4 home games in the 6 game block and Texas/OU each get 1 home game.  

 

But reality is the better option would be to get rid of the marquee Ohio State and Michigan games for both since we will both be playing the rigorous SEC schedule. Either way please get us the fuck outta Big 12.

Edited by BurntOrange&White
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Js1

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19 minutes ago, BurntOrange&White said:

"“Everybody, conceptually, is pretty close to a deal,” says one Big 12 source. “The hangup is Fox wants some inventory. If they get that figured out, they’re on the one-yard line.”

 

 

Fumbled at the 1 yard line again? haha

Clearly not Big 12 refs or they would have ruled it a touchdown.

(2013 ISU game)

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Vertigo

Vertigo 20382

Posted
Posted (edited)
2 hours ago, utee94 said:

Yup this is the reality.

Fox isn't "screwing us" or "holding us hostage."  They're just not letting us off the hook without being compensated for it.  

I believe they're definitely overplaying their hand and that our negotiating team is coming off as weak and ineffectual, but it's clear at this point that TPTB at Texas aren't nearly as concerned about when the move occurs, as the fans on this message board are.  They're not going to pay gobs of money to Fox to get out early and they're not going push it to the courts.  UT's negotiators have failed and there's no appetite for risk among the school's decision makers.  They just don't care enough about the departure date.

 

 

They aren't overplaying their hand, and our team isn't ineffectual. The reality is that we have very little leverage to negotiate an exit from Fox. The only thing we can do is play games on their network, and a lot of them, or else just straight up pay them the revenue they would lose. The answer is likely somewhere in between. A number of non conference games on fox against B12 or even B1G opponents plus additional dollars to fill the gap. The haggling on what that number should be is likely the hang up. 

I for one, welcome a non conference slate of Indiana, Rutgers, Kansas, and Arizona (post expansion). 

Edited by Vertigo
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utee94

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Posted
Posted
Just now, Vertigo said:

They aren't overplaying their hand, and our team isn't innefectual. The reality is that we have very little leverage to negotiate an exit from Fox. The only thing we can do is play games on their network, and a lot of them, or else just straight up pay them the revenue they would lose. The answer is likely somewhere in between. A number of non conference games on fox against B12 or even B1G opponents plus additional dollars to fill the gap. The haggling on what that number should be is likely the hang up. 

You're not saying anything different, you just perceive it differently.

Yes, we ALL know that they're negotiating inventory, appearances on their network.  That's all this was ever going to be.  Inventory and/or cash settlement. That it has taken this long, demonstrates to me that our negotiating team has been weak and ineffectual.  You can certainly perceive it differently, but I won't agree with your opinion.

 

 

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Doc Daneeka

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41 minutes ago, Vertigo said:

They aren't overplaying their hand, and our team isn't ineffectual. The reality is that we have very little leverage to negotiate an exit from Fox. The only thing we can do is play games on their network, and a lot of them, or else just straight up pay them the revenue they would lose. The answer is likely somewhere in between. A number of non conference games on fox against B12 or even B1G opponents plus additional dollars to fill the gap. The haggling on what that number should be is likely the hang up. 

I for one, welcome a non conference slate of Indiana, Rutgers, Kansas, and Arizona (post expansion). 

How much revenue does Fox lose by missing out on a Texas, or OU, game and showing some other Big 12 game instead? What their incremental revenue for, say, Texas vs. Iowa State as opposed to Kansas State vs. Iowa State? 

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TrashMaster G

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22 minutes ago, tonedeaf said:

This has to be a slap in the face to the left behinds.  Does anyone really think there would be all this fuss if bayler wanted to leave.  FOX wouldn't care if we replaced them with Tulsa or Tulane cause bayler was no loss.   Fuck'em.

Please see the exits of: Colorado, Nebraska, Mizzou and aggy

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hook me

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Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, Vertigo said:

They aren't overplaying their hand, and our team isn't ineffectual. The reality is that we have very little leverage to negotiate an exit from Fox. The only thing we can do is play games on their network, and a lot of them, or else just straight up pay them the revenue they would lose. The answer is likely somewhere in between. A number of non conference games on fox against B12 or even B1G opponents plus additional dollars to fill the gap. The haggling on what that number should be is likely the hang up. 

I for one, welcome a non conference slate of Indiana, Rutgers, Kansas, and Arizona (post expansion). 

With regards to the contract, sure. With regards to the future, I'd say we have some leverage as the biggest brand in college sports. What happens when the SEC TV deal is up & you have 2 of the biggest brands with a big ax to grind against FOX because they were being bitches about a few games? We won't run the SEC like we do the BIG 12, but I guarantee our voices will be heard loud & clear. It behooves FOX to get as much as they can from us right up to the point that it pisses us off.

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Thiefery

Thiefery 5022

Posted
Posted
6 minutes ago, mdmost said:

Fox seems a little short sided here. They can get the OOC games with Ohio State and Michigan that we have coming up and they said no.

 

Yeah I don't get why they wouldn't go for this..  maybe in addition they wanted the RRS?  What does hurt is that ou doesn't play anyone worth a shit OOC like UT does..  SMU next season? ehhhh

 

Also is it safe to assume that UT is doing all the talking here?

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BurntOrange&White

BurntOrange&White 40449

Posted
Posted
8 minutes ago, TheMailBox357 said:

I might be 1 of the few UT fans who is happy with UT & OU not leaving for the SEC until '25 & getting to beat up on the Big 12 for 2 more seasons before facing the SEC gauntlet. So I'm pleased with this news today.

 

Yeah but you’re a certified pussy. You don’t get better playing cupcakes. You get better playing the best. The big 12 isn’t going to change our week in week out physicality that is required in the sec. The sooner we get there the sooner the acclimation begins. 

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TheMailBox357

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Posted
Posted
11 minutes ago, TheMailBox357 said:

I might be 1 of the few UT fans who is happy with UT & OU not leaving for the SEC until '25 & getting to beat up on the Big 12 for 2 more seasons before facing the SEC gauntlet. So I'm pleased with this news today.

 

 

2 minutes ago, BurntOrange&White said:

Yeah but you’re a certified pussy. You don’t get better playing cupcakes. You get better playing the best. The big 12 isn’t going to change our week in week out physicality that is required in the sec. The sooner we get there the sooner the acclimation begins. 

*Kanye Shrugs*. Aggy won 11 games in their first season in the SEC season. Mizzou also had instant success. I look at this way, not only does UT get 2 more seasons to beat up on the Big 12, UT gets 2 more seasons to upgrade & churn their roster for the SEC gauntlet in '25.

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TrashMaster G

TrashMaster G 17733

Posted
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17 minutes ago, TheMailBox357 said:

I might be 1 of the few UT fans who is happy with UT & OU not leaving for the SEC until '25 & getting to beat up on the Big 12 for 2 more seasons before facing the SEC gauntlet. So I'm pleased with this news today.

 

2 more years of dealing with Big XII ref fuck jobs??? 

Fuck that noise.

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BurntOrange&White

BurntOrange&White 40449

Posted
Posted (edited)
1 minute ago, TheMailBox357 said:

 

*Kanye Shrugs*. Aggy won 11 games in their first season in the SEC season. Mizzou also had instant success. I look at this way, not only does UT get 2 more seasons to beat up on the Big 12, UT gets 2 more seasons to upgrade & churn their roster for the SEC gauntlet in '25.

Sec was an antiquated version of what it is now. A&M and Missouri brought modern offenses to a league that was playing like it was the 90s. Fire in a bottle. Look at both programs now that SEC adjusted to modern times. I knew that would be your reply as soon as I hit enter. Now change out your tampon Geoff

Edited by BurntOrange&White
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Doc Daneeka

Doc Daneeka 6769

Posted
Posted
6 minutes ago, BurntOrange&White said:

Sec was an antiquated version of what it is now. A&M and Missouri brought modern offenses to a league that was playing like it was the 90s. Fire in a bottle. Look at both programs now that SEC adjusted to modern times. I knew that would be your reply as soon as I hit enter. Now change out your tampon Geoff

Even with their glorious COVID season, A&M is just about right at their level… a .520 or so conference team. 

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Texas Wahoo

Texas Wahoo 3476

Posted
Posted
4 hours ago, TheMailBox357 said:

I might be 1 of the few UT fans who is happy with UT & OU not leaving for the SEC until '25 & getting to beat up on the Big 12 for 2 more seasons before facing the SEC gauntlet. So I'm pleased with this news today.

 

Why do people keep citing this idiot as if he knows something?

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Magus Ossis

Magus Ossis 2883

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Posted
34 minutes ago, BurntOrange&White said:

We have to give a year notice, right? So way I see it is we have until about July 1/middle of July at latest to officially let them know

Everything is negotiable. If TPTB at each of the major players in this game want a deal, there will be a deal. The irony is that the process of “making whole” involves making sure all the people who were getting rich off the demand for Texas get as much money as they were lead to believe they’d get off us. Some of that was merited, much of it was freeloaded or politically acquired.

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Doc Daneeka

Doc Daneeka 6769

Posted
Posted

How much revenue does Fox make from Texas vs. Kansas State as opposed to Tech vs. Kansas State? 

How much is a TCU vs. Iowa State game worth to them if Texas is in the Big 12 or if Texas isn’t?

If Fox is losing 7 Texas or OU games — I think that was the number, could be wrong — how much does their revenue actually decrease relative to 7 other Big 12 games?

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