Realignment talk not going away

[Guest]

2 hours ago, Josef Pwag said:

Your program has never done anything that matters in the history of college football. So someone was luckier than you? So what. Until you earn it on your own, please, stop bitching. Shut up until you win a national title.

 

Your ceiling is beating Texas. Our ceiling is winning a national title.

Also, the rules have changed. We will soon be able to buy ourselves a title. You never will. 

Nah. Vincent Young isn't walking through that door again...

Keep lighting our money on fire though.

[mdmost 43001]

Bob Iger said ESPN is going to have to be more selective with rights deals going forward. Doesn't sound great for the Pac 12. So digital might be their best option. It wouldn't shock me if ESPN gets sold off by Disney. It has to be a huge drain on the company. 

[Francisco 2.0 32392]

1 minute ago, mdmost said:

Bob Iger said ESPN is going to have to be more selective with rights deals going forward. Doesn't sound great for the Pac 12. So digital might be their best option. It wouldn't shock me if ESPN gets sold off by Disney. It has to be a huge drain on the company. 

 

It's a huge drain.  But ESPN has something that few others have:  dual income streams (carriage and subscription fees, plus advertising).  Plus, live sports.  It's the only true ratings machine left in television today.

ESPN's problem the past decade or so has been the rights fees they pay out....when they have no others bidding for the same package.  Essentially, bidding against themselves.  Thus, they have nearly $45 billion tied up in rights fees through 2027. 

What will  be interesting is the NBA is coming up for renewal in a year or so.  

 

 

 

 

 

[camel at sea 589]

2 minutes ago, 'stache said:

I can see a future where Stanford and Cal join the WCC for olympic sports and the Ivy League for football despite the travel. I'm sure the extra cost is worth it to them to continue basking in the smell of their own academic farts. CU, UU, AU, and ASU join the XII, and UO and UW eventually do to having no other viable options, with us all understanding they'll continue begging the BIG for an invite. I'd love to have ORST and WSU, but I assume the financial numbers would not work out, if only we knew this would be a possibilty before adding the AAC and Mormon mid-majors.

I'd guess that the AAC invitees and BYU are all worth more than either Oregon State or Washington State.  WSU regularly draws less than 25K to home games and Oregon State isn't a lot better.  The Beavers are renovating their stadium to be between 34K and 39K capacity.

[billfromlaketravis 11478]

5 minutes ago, Francisco 2.0 said:

 

It's a huge drain.  But ESPN has something that few others have:  dual income streams (carriage and subscription fees, plus advertising).  Plus, live sports.  It's the only true ratings machine left in television today.

ESPN's problem the past decade or so has been the rights fees they pay out....when they have no others bidding for the same package.  Essentially, bidding against themselves.  Thus, they have nearly $45 billion tied up in rights fees through 2027. 

What will  be interesting is the NBA is coming up for renewal in a year or so.  

 

 

 

 

 

Yeah I wouldn’t renew the NBA. I believe Stern made them take WNBA games as well. 
 

ESPN should buy a game of the week, some playoff games, and an occasional Finals and call it a day. 

[Hurtlocker 2212]

2 hours ago, camel at sea said:

The best case scenario for the PAC is going to be living out a version of the Big 12's 2010-2021 existence.  They'll probably add those two and lose two others (Arizona + Colorado.)  They'll have a decent chance of keeping Oregon and Washington around for a while if 1) the new Tier 1 media deal gives those two enough football exposure, and 2) if the PAC unequally splits the expanded CFP revenue (something that would probably also make Utah happy.)  Most of the rest of the conference has admins that would sacrifice sports on the alter of Stanford/Cal academic association and/or no other options.  If the PAC can limit any additional exodus to just Arizona + 1, they'll probably survive in the short term.  

Obviously at some point Oregon and Washington will leave but if the PAC can delay that eventuality for several years, they can give a heads up to a few MWC schools with "good enough" academics and those schools can get facilities projects built, winning programs on the field, etc.

Exactly this, its going to be an interesting development how this media deal shakes out.  The Pac 12 played for money over exposure and may miss out on both.  There just aren't any more windows open except late night, which is mostly watched by the west coast anyway.   So you get paid and no one sees you, that's a short term win.   There is a reason the SEC let CBS market their 3:30 game for basically free for a decade longer than they needed.   The order is exposure first, cash in second.   The Big 12, while on the ropes, carved themselves out an exposure contract and, while not big brands, actually play ball.

It was reported around the time the Big 12 signed their deal that the viewership of non-Texas/OU games has increased by about 40% over the past few years (still well below Texas/OU games, but growing at a sizable rate) and their deal is up in 2031.   IF they keep increasing viewership and IF the Pac fades even more away, their next contract could be from a poaching position.

I wouldn't be surprised if we start seeing more leaks soon, like when FSU/Clemson wanted their own network, as Pac12 brass try and get a GoR for a decade and Oregon/UW/Zona all want a 4-5 year deal as a wait it out move.

[Crockett 490]

1 hour ago, 'stache said:

I can see a future where Stanford and Cal join the WCC for olympic sports and the Ivy League for football despite the travel. I'm sure the extra cost is worth it to them to continue basking in the smell of their own academic farts. CU, UU, AU, and ASU join the XII, and UO and UW eventually do to having no other viable options, with us all understanding they'll continue begging the BIG for an invite. I'd love to have ORST and WSU, but I assume the financial numbers would not work out, if only we knew this would be a possibilty before adding the AAC and Mormon mid-majors.

We have a bigger stadium than you and have won a natty in our lifetimes 

[FartingDreamer 138]

Just now, Crockett said:

We have a bigger stadium than you and have won a natty in our lifetimes 

This.  

[SimkinsMan 4387]

1 minute ago, Crockett said:

We have a bigger stadium than you and have won a natty in our lifetimes 

Yeah, but only aggies use the term "natty" so advantage Okie Lite.

[FartingDreamer 138]

14 minutes ago, SimkinsMan said:

Yeah, but only aggies use the term "natty" so advantage Okie Lite.

Not when it comes to 1984.

[billfromlaketravis 11478]

I’m not convinced the corner schools wanted to jump. Easier travel, academic prestige, roughly the same money. So yeah, the Irate8 probably did as well as they were going to do. 
 

That said, SDSU would have been a better choice than arguably all four of the new guys. NFL cities/traditional college football powers nearby kills off the fanbases for Coug High, Cincy, and UCF. 

[Trojan Man 429]

50 minutes ago, billfromlaketravis said:

I’m not convinced the corner schools wanted to jump. Easier travel, academic prestige, roughly the same money. So yeah, the Irate8 probably did as well as they were going to do. 
 

That said, SDSU would have been a better choice than arguably all four of the new guys. NFL cities/traditional college football powers nearby kills off the fanbases for Coug High, Cincy, and UCF. 

Out of the 4 new Big 12 schools plus SDSU BYU is a clear #1, Cincinnati/UCF/SDSU are all roughly even and Houston is last.  Those three in the middle all have TCU/Utah-level potential with the right coach and a little success.  The expanded playoff format will also help them to build upon any success.  Who knows how it might have changed TCU's fortunes if the 12 team format existed back in 2014?  I think the post-realignment Big 12 will snag an at large bid most years and might even land a second at large bid every so often.

I expect Cincy to have a healthy uptick in recruiting now in the Big 12.  It's dumb a state as big as Ohio only had one P5 team.  It can easily support more than that.  Cincy should be able to get a good amount of the second tier instate recruits that Ohio State passes on but who still want to stay in Ohio while playing in a respectable conference.  Currently those guys go to schools like Kentucky, Louisville and B1G programs in neighboring states.  UCF has the most potential out of this group.  They have a massive amount of students and alumni, they're committed to football plus the big 3 Florida schools have all been wallowing in their own feces for awhile now so there is a local power vacuum.  A good run in the Big 12 could turn them into a power.  SDSU is committed to football (they just built a new stadium) and they have no other football competition in their market.  They won't beat USC or UCLA or Oregon or B1G/SEC powers for the top Southern California recruits but if they win they should do well with the next batch of local recruits that programs like Utah and Washington and the Arizona schools live off.  Of course these are predictions based on potential and not guaranteed to happen, but I think they are realistic outcomes with the right head coach in place and a supportive administration behind him.

[DFW Horn 6124]

45 minutes ago, Trojan Man said:

Out of the 4 new Big 12 schools plus SDSU BYU is a clear #1, Cincinnati/UCF/SDSU are all roughly even and Houston is last.  

I expect Cincy to have a healthy uptick in recruiting now in the Big 12.  It's dumb a state as big as Ohio only had one P5 team.  It can easily support more than that.  Cincy should be able to get a good amount of the second tier instate recruits that Ohio State passes on but who still want to stay in Ohio while playing in a respectable conference. 

UCF has the most potential out of this group.  They have a massive amount of students and alumni, they're committed to football plus the big 3 Florida schools have all been wallowing in their own feces for awhile now so there is a local power vacuum.  A good run in the Big 12 could turn them into a power.  

UH should be able to keep more Houston talent home, too, with Big 12 cred using your logic for Cincinnati and UCF. Why wouldn't they? Their alumni's pockets aren't as deep collectively, but a few BMDs are committed to that program. 

[Trojan Man 429]

19 minutes ago, DFW Horn said:

UH should be able to keep more Houston talent home, too, with Big 12 cred using your logic for Cincinnati and UCF. Why wouldn't they? Their alumni's pockets aren't as deep collectively, but a few BMDs are committed to that program. 

I think it's possible Houston could reach the same heights I described for those other programs, it's just not as likely.  They have fewer fans and more competition in their own backyard than the others so it's a steeper climb, but it wasn't that long ago Herman was keeping home more Houston talent and knocking off Oklahoma and Florida State and Lamar Jackson.  There were also other factors I didn't go into because I was getting too essay-ish, mainly location.

For the Big 12 there was more value in expanding into Ohio and Florida than there was adding another Texas team.  Both of those help bolster recruiting for the rest of the conference more than Houston does and they position the Big 12 to pick off ACC schools some day, which would cement their place as the "best of the rest" third place conference.  It's vital the Pac 12 keeps a Southern California presence so that's a bump to SDSU's grade.

[closetohumping 17442]

1 hour ago, DFW Horn said:

UH should be able to keep more Houston talent home, too, with Big 12 cred using your logic for Cincinnati and UCF. Why wouldn't they? Their alumni's pockets aren't as deep collectively, but a few BMDs are committed to that program. 

I would think they’d be close to what tcu is grabbing

[camel at sea 589]

6 hours ago, Hurtlocker said:

Exactly this, its going to be an interesting development how this media deal shakes out.  The Pac 12 played for money over exposure and may miss out on both.  There just aren't any more windows open except late night, which is mostly watched by the west coast anyway.   So you get paid and no one sees you, that's a short term win.   There is a reason the SEC let CBS market their 3:30 game for basically free for a decade longer than they needed.   The order is exposure first, cash in second.   The Big 12, while on the ropes, carved themselves out an exposure contract and, while not big brands, actually play ball.

It was reported around the time the Big 12 signed their deal that the viewership of non-Texas/OU games has increased by about 40% over the past few years (still well below Texas/OU games, but growing at a sizable rate) and their deal is up in 2031.   IF they keep increasing viewership and IF the Pac fades even more away, their next contract could be from a poaching position.

I wouldn't be surprised if we start seeing more leaks soon, like when FSU/Clemson wanted their own network, as Pac12 brass try and get a GoR for a decade and Oregon/UW/Zona all want a 4-5 year deal as a wait it out move.

The original PAC media deal report a while back had CBS picking up "a handful" of the PAC's games.  That or something like it has to be the carrot to keep Oregon and Washington from bouncing right now.  Neither of those two can really afford to bury their programs from an exposure standpoint, for any amount of time, and I doubt Phil Knight would allow it at Oregon. 

But if you're Arizona basketball?  There is no carrot being offered.  Their AD can't let their basketball games get parked on Amazon streaming.  It's horrible for exposure in the short term and it's a huge risk for them to not take a Big 12 chair now, if they have one.  That spot might not be there 4-5 years from now.  I'd guess too that donations, attendance, and ticket prices all go up if KU and company start visiting town.  We'll see though.  I have no doubt that you're right and that we'll start seeing more leaks soon.

 

[bullet 1597]

3 hours ago, Trojan Man said:

Out of the 4 new Big 12 schools plus SDSU BYU is a clear #1, Cincinnati/UCF/SDSU are all roughly even and Houston is last.  Those three in the middle all have TCU/Utah-level potential with the right coach and a little success.  The expanded playoff format will also help them to build upon any success.  Who knows how it might have changed TCU's fortunes if the 12 team format existed back in 2014?  I think the post-realignment Big 12 will snag an at large bid most years and might even land a second at large bid every so often.

I expect Cincy to have a healthy uptick in recruiting now in the Big 12.  It's dumb a state as big as Ohio only had one P5 team.  It can easily support more than that.  Cincy should be able to get a good amount of the second tier instate recruits that Ohio State passes on but who still want to stay in Ohio while playing in a respectable conference.  Currently those guys go to schools like Kentucky, Louisville and B1G programs in neighboring states.  UCF has the most potential out of this group.  They have a massive amount of students and alumni, they're committed to football plus the big 3 Florida schools have all been wallowing in their own feces for awhile now so there is a local power vacuum.  A good run in the Big 12 could turn them into a power.  SDSU is committed to football (they just built a new stadium) and they have no other football competition in their market.  They won't beat USC or UCLA or Oregon or B1G/SEC powers for the top Southern California recruits but if they win they should do well with the next batch of local recruits that programs like Utah and Washington and the Arizona schools live off.  Of course these are predictions based on potential and not guaranteed to happen, but I think they are realistic outcomes with the right head coach in place and a supportive administration behind him.

People forget.  Houston has been competitive in a major conference.  They won the SWC in football 3 of their first 4 years.  They had Phi Slamma Jamma (for you youngsters-Hakeem Olajuwon, Clyde Drexler, Michael Young, et. al. and 3 straight trips to the final 4).  Houston is the surest bet of the group.  Maybe the pros limit their upside compared to UCF, but they have proven themselves and don't have a potential ceiling caused by a religious connection.

[bullet 1597]

1 hour ago, Trojan Man said:

I think it's possible Houston could reach the same heights I described for those other programs, it's just not as likely.  They have fewer fans and more competition in their own backyard than the others so it's a steeper climb, but it wasn't that long ago Herman was keeping home more Houston talent and knocking off Oklahoma and Florida State and Lamar Jackson.  There were also other factors I didn't go into because I was getting too essay-ish, mainly location.

For the Big 12 there was more value in expanding into Ohio and Florida than there was adding another Texas team.  Both of those help bolster recruiting for the rest of the conference more than Houston does and they position the Big 12 to pick off ACC schools some day, which would cement their place as the "best of the rest" third place conference.  It's vital the Pac 12 keeps a Southern California presence so that's a bump to SDSU's grade.

Actually, I think Houston was the one essential addition for the Big 12.  Even more than SDSU for the Pac, they were needed for visibility in Houston.  For the press they get in Houston, Texas Tech and TCU might as well be Iowa St.  Baylor isn't much better, but there are a few alums.

[bullet 1597]

https://www.dallasnews.com/sports/smu-mustangs/2023/02/08/smu-rumored-pac-12-expansion-candidate-keeps-commissioners-visit-under-the-radar/

Pac commissioner pictured at SMU basketball game tonight.

[Josef Pwag 1738]

6 hours ago, bullet said:

People forget.  Houston has been competitive in a major conference.  They won the SWC in football 3 of their first 4 years.  They had Phi Slamma Jamma (for you youngsters-Hakeem Olajuwon, Clyde Drexler, Michael Young, et. al. and 3 straight trips to the final 4).  Houston is the surest bet of the group.  Maybe the pros limit their upside compared to UCF, but they have proven themselves and don't have a potential ceiling caused by a religious connection.

So your argument for UofH's success in the 2020s is that they did well in football in the SWC decades ago when they cheated like holy fuck and in the 1980s they assembled the best college basketball team to never win a title. You are lightyears away from a coherent argument. Houston is a joke academic university based in a war zone with zero national titles in any sport that matters. Also, they spelled it 'Phi Slama Jama' and Guy V. Lewis is an eternal clown for not winning a national title with 2 of the NBA's Top 50 players. 

 

You are dismissed.

 

[Evil Bill Obrien 3284]

13 hours ago, FartingDreamer said:

Not when it comes to 1984.

Can't tell who 1984 is more applicable to, Aggy or Mormons

[closetohumping 17442]

1 hour ago, Josef Pwag said:

So your argument for UofH's success in the 2020s is that they did well in football in the SWC decades ago when they cheated like holy fuck and in the 1980s they assembled the best college basketball team to never win a title. You are lightyears away from a coherent argument. Houston is a joke academic university based in a war zone with zero national titles in any sport that matters. Also, they spelled it 'Phi Slama Jama' and Guy V. Lewis is an eternal clown for not winning a national title with 2 of the NBA's Top 50 players. 

 

You are dismissed.

 

Are there any elite academic schools left in the big 12?   Houston will fit right in

[FartingDreamer 138]

3 minutes ago, closetohumping said:

Are there any elite academic schools left in the big 12?   Houston will fit right in

BYU and Kansas.

Edited February 9, 2023 by FartingDreamer

[Al_4_ISU 12463]

Iowa State's still a good school, even if we aren't AAU anymore and our state government is trying to destroy public education/no cr.

[GreenspointTexas 9602]

11 minutes ago, FartingDreamer said:

BYU and Kansas.

Lololol no

 

 

also, houston is a better academic school than Tech and a lot of other big 12 schools. And i hate u of h

[Al_4_ISU 12463]

And, really, why are people quibbling about academics at this point?  Academics don't make a shit when it comes to who you play in sports.  Separate things unless you're the Big 10.

It's about money and exposure for everyone.  It's not about peers who respect you (see Texas being the #2 most hated team in a league they haven't played a game in).  It's not about academics.  It's not about getting away from "leeches".  It's not about getting new road trips.  All of these are message board talking points.  Whether you're Texas and Oklahoma joining the SEC, USC and UCLA joining the Big 10, or BYU and Cincy joining the Big 12, you're making the move because it offers more cash and better media coverage than your current arrangement.

Edited February 9, 2023 by Al_4_ISU

['stache 21815]

ISU is in the AAU which is apparently the end all be all of academics. Well after the US News competition of stat manipulation.

Edited February 9, 2023 by 'stache

[Al_4_ISU 12463]

12 minutes ago, 'stache said:

ISU is in the AAU which is apparently the end all be all of academics. Well after the US News competition of stat manipulation.

We dropped out last year.  Voluntarily, but we were going to be kicked out due to reduced research funding in some specific area.  We were also one of the few schools in it w/out medicine and law.

Edited February 9, 2023 by Al_4_ISU

[ConferenceRoom 6141]

40 minutes ago, FartingDreamer said:

BYU and Kansas.

You're a sensitive boy, ain't ya Tommy? 

[SimonBolivar 10958]

52 minutes ago, FartingDreamer said:

BYU and Kansas.

Baylor beats BYU in most of the key academic metrics (which are often BS as our oSu friends like to tell us) as far as I can tell, so I'm not sure where BYU being the academic leader comes from...

 

Carnegie:

Baylor - R1

BYU - R2

 

AAU:

Baylor - Nope

BYU - Nope

 

USNEWS:

Baylor - 77

BYU - 89

 

And none of this matters of course as we're a relatively weak conference academically. 

Edited February 9, 2023 by SimonBolivar

[DFW Horn 6124]

Why would SDS propose an 18-team SEC with no OU? While adding BU, Memphis, and UH? Very odd. He must be a morning drinker.

[Al_4_ISU 12463]

Must be a purist about the SEC only having slave states?

[DFW Horn 6124]

I like the 3 guaranteed rivals/pods proposal better if we play everybody twice in 4 years. Just take the Top 2 teams for the SEC Championship.

[FartingDreamer 138]

1 hour ago, SimonBolivar said:

Baylor beats BYU in most of the key academic metrics (which are often BS as our oSu friends like to tell us) as far as I can tell, so I'm not sure where BYU being the academic leader comes from...

 

Carnegie:

Baylor - R1

BYU - R2

 

AAU:

Baylor - Nope

BYU - Nope

 

USNEWS:

Baylor - 77

BYU - 89

 

And none of this matters of course as we're a relatively weak conference academically. 

AAU doesn't mean shit, as they will not include private and religious institutions and research $$$ does not equal quality of academics and BYU's programs (such as Business, Accounting (Elite) MBA, MPA, Law School, etc) overall are ranked higher and are more highly regarded then Baylor's.

Edited February 9, 2023 by FartingDreamer

[Texas Wahoo 3395]

13 minutes ago, FartingDreamer said:

AAU doesn't mean shit, as they will not include private and religious institutions and research $$$ does not equal quality of academics and BYU's programs (such as Business, Accounting (Elite) MBA, MPA, Law School, etc) overall are ranked higher and are more highly regarded then Baylor's.

The AAU may not include any religious institutions, although that is probably because those universities do not tend to be top research universities.  However, the AAU includes a ton of private universities.

[SimonBolivar 10958]

19 minutes ago, Texas Wahoo said:

The AAU may not include any religious institutions, although that is probably because those universities do not tend to be top research universities.  However, the AAU includes a ton of private universities.

Correct, it's difficult for private religious universities to reach AAU due to funding but certainly nothing in the rules against it.

[camel at sea 589]

10 hours ago, bullet said:

People forget.  Houston has been competitive in a major conference.  They won the SWC in football 3 of their first 4 years.  They had Phi Slamma Jamma (for you youngsters-Hakeem Olajuwon, Clyde Drexler, Michael Young, et. al. and 3 straight trips to the final 4).  Houston is the surest bet of the group.  Maybe the pros limit their upside compared to UCF, but they have proven themselves and don't have a potential ceiling caused by a religious connection.

Yeah.  I don't understand the doubt about UH.  They'll be successful in the Big 12 in football and in a lot of sports.  Their facilities are on campus and good.  Their recruiting location is as elite as it gets in college athletics.  They've got their own Phil Knight / T. Boone BMD to drive things forward.    

[BurntOrange&White 39932]

2 minutes ago, camel at sea said:

Yeah.  I don't understand the doubt about UH.  They'll be successful in the Big 12 in football and in a lot of sports.  Their facilities are on campus and good.  Their recruiting location is as elite as it gets in college athletics.  They've got their own Phil Knight / T. Boone BMD to drive things forward.    

Fuck Houston

[Al_4_ISU 12463]

The only thing I see missing with Houston is fan engagement.  They definitely have everything else in their favor.

[closetohumping 17442]

9 minutes ago, camel at sea said:

Yeah.  I don't understand the doubt about UH.  They'll be successful in the Big 12 in football and in a lot of sports.  Their facilities are on campus and good.  Their recruiting location is as elite as it gets in college athletics.  They've got their own Phil Knight / T. Boone BMD to drive things forward.    

They’re top five in basketball   You can win there.  Nothing about cincy is better than houston

[Saint Austin 745]

1 hour ago, Al_4_ISU said:

Must be a purist about the SEC only having slave states?

Harsh but fair

[Al_4_ISU 12463]

1 minute ago, Saint Austin said:

Harsh but fair

It was the only thru-line I could see.

[DFW Horn 6124]

15 minutes ago, Al_4_ISU said:

The only thing I see missing with Houston is fan engagement.  They definitely have everything else in their favor.

Yep, and fan engagement should improve playing BU, Tech, and TCU on a regular basis. Not to mention KU and others in hoops. Big 12 hype and exposure will help their athletic department in all facets. 

[Crockett 490]

1 hour ago, Texas Wahoo said:

The AAU may not include any religious institutions, although that is probably because those universities do not tend to be top research universities.  However, the AAU includes a ton of private universities.

BYU does some research, but it considers itself more a teaching university than a research university. It focuses more on undergrad, although it does have several top 30 grad programs (law, MBA, MAcc, ...), and it does not offer a lot of PhD programs (~30). If you look at average grades / scores for incoming freshman they are 3.9+ and around a 30 ACT. I'd say that's respectable. 

[Texas Wahoo 3395]

Anyone have access to this? https://theathletic.com/4171699/2023/02/09/college-football-realignment-pac-12-smu-big-12/.

[camel at sea 589]

15 minutes ago, Al_4_ISU said:

The only thing I see missing with Houston is fan engagement.  They definitely have everything else in their favor.

Their fanbase is fair-weather.  Herman's teams were starting to draw pretty well there before he left for Austin.  Then the whole thing kind of cratered again under Major and Dana.  Between Briles, Sumlin, and Herman, they haven't been able to hang on to any coaches that started building fan momentum.  TCU keeping a guy like Gary Patterson around for two decades was pretty unusual.  That part of the fan support equation probably gets better for UH in the Big 12.  

My guess is that they'll turn out relatively well for Big 12 opponents until the newness wears off.  Then they'll turn out for winners after that.  But I think there are a lot of reasons to think they'll eventually be winners.  

 

 

 

[Trojan Man 429]

1 minute ago, Texas Wahoo said:

Anyone have access to this? https://theathletic.com/4171699/2023/02/09/college-football-realignment-pac-12-smu-big-12/.

I highly recommend subbing to The Athletic, especially if there are multiple sports and teams you follow.  Lots of deep content and most of their writers regularly engage with readers.

Spoiler

Written by Stewart Mandel, Nicole Auerbach, Max Olson and Chris Vannini.

Realignment is back in the news, thanks to continued discussions within the Big 12 about early exits for Oklahoma and Texas, and Pac-12 commissioner George Kliavkoff’s visit to SMU on Wednesday.

Here is the latest from The Athletic’s reporters.

Pac-12 media rights

Last July, shortly after USC and UCLA’s defections, the Pac-12 opened negotiations for its next media rights contract, which would take effect with the 2024 football season. Seven months later, there’s still no deal — and people are getting antsy. With good reason.

Three people with knowledge of the discussions said commissioner George Kliavkoff is struggling to find partners willing to pay close to what the league is seeking. Two of those sources said Kliavkoff overpromised his members on how many bidders there would be and what dollar amount they could command — a target north of $40 million per school, according to one league athletic director. Today, it’s uncertain whether the Pac-12 will even be able to exceed the $31.6 million average the Big 12 reportedly landed in a six-year extension with ESPN and Fox it reached last fall.

“(We) don’t have a deal because it hasn’t been good,” said the AD.

Kliavkoff made some key miscalculations. At last summer’s Pac-12 media day, he suggested the Big Ten’s pending jackpot — which wound up being for $8.1 billion over seven years — would have a ripple effect on the Pac-12. But the Big Ten is a much more watched conference that garnered interest from nearly every major linear and digital media company. The Pac-12, by contrast, has found fewer bidders since going to the open market. Fox, for one, has expressed little interest now that the Los Angeles schools are part of its prized Big Ten package. And CBS (Big Ten and Mountain West) and NBC (Big Ten and Notre Dame) are set in college football for the next several years. However, one Pac-12 administrator did indicate a new player emerged shortly after the new year.

Kliavkoff also sounded certain last summer that his league would be next in line after the Big Ten because its deal was up a year earlier than the Big 12’s (which runs through 2025). But Big 12 counterpart Brett Yormark outflanked him, convincing existing partners ESPN and Fox to open up negotiations a year early. Whereas Kliavkoff drew out the process by taking his rights to market, Yormark reached an extension of the current contract within a couple of months. And the Big 12’s agreement may have provided its own ripple effect on negotiations by unofficially setting a ceiling. 

“It’s tough when your neighbor across the street sells his house for a low price,” said the Pac-12 administrator.

 

ESPN remains interested in the Pac-12, particularly in the league’s 10:30 p.m. ET games, but New York Post sports media writer Andrew Marchand reported last fall that the Pac-12 and ESPN were “hundreds of millions apart.” Which may explain why the Pac-12 is looking at possibly putting the majority of its games on a streaming platform. Sports Business Journal’s John Ourand predicted in December the league will “sell almost its entire media package to Amazon for a price that is slightly higher than what the Big 12 gets from ESPN and Fox.”

Which brings us back to expansion. Adding schools like San Diego State and SMU would not add significant value in a traditional TV deal, but a streaming service like Amazon or ESPN+ could be interested in volume. Inviting two more schools would add an extra 15 or so football games a year, which would raise the overall dollar amount (say, from $270 million a year to $300 million a year). Two sources believe the new schools would initially receive less than a full share — not unusual in these situations — which would up the existing schools’ slice of the pie.

While those sources still believe the media deal will be completed before any expansion becomes official, they also understand there could be pressure from media partners to swap the order of events so they know exactly what that inventory will be.

SMU and San Diego State in focus

SMU’s home basketball game on Wednesday night was supposed to serve as a secret pitch meeting, but it became a public demonstration. Multiple promotions and honors were scheduled heading into the matchup with Temple, including football players being told to attend the game. Several people in the athletic department weren’t sure why. The reason for the emphasis became clear when The Action Network first reported that Kliavkoff would visit SMU on Wednesday and On3 reported he would be at the game.

After a cold and rainy day in Dallas, Kliavkoff indeed attended. He tried to stay inconspicuous, wearing a black NBA Finals hat and a black quarter-zip. But The Athletic and the Dallas Morning News spotted him in a suite at the top of Moody Coliseum. He was flanked by two men who appeared to be Pac-12 deputy commissioner/COO Jamie Zaninovich and senior vice president of strategy Erik Hardenbergh. Throughout the game, the trio met with SMU president R. Gerald Turner, board of trustees chair and megadonor David B. Miller, athletic director Rick Hart and executive deputy AD/COO Kurt Pottkotter. Kliavkoff and Turner spoke for most of the second half, which saw SMU win on a free throw with three seconds left. The commissioner left the arena out of the view of media.

 

SMU did not want this visit to become public, as conferences and schools prefer to keep realignment workings behind closed doors. Even after the news leaked, many SMU officials wouldn’t say a word on or off the record and wouldn’t confirm Kliavkoff’s appearance at the game. Many had found out he was coming only when the news broke.

But the suddenly public nature of the visit provided an opportunity. SMU’s student section was packed and scattered with signs with Pac-12 references. One fan, Jack Joyce, wrote “Pac” on the back of an SMU club baseball jersey with the No. 12. Dallas mayor Eric Johnson tweeted his support before tipoff.

After the win, Mustangs basketball coach Rob Lanier was asked whether he knew the Pac-12 commissioner was there and replied, “I read that, yep.”

SMU’s Pac-12 case is centered on its location in Dallas, which would bring the Pac-12 into Texas and the Central time zone, along with solid academics (it is a top-75 national university per U.S. News & World Report and is working to become a R1 research school) and a lot of money (a $2 billion endowment and many active big-money donors). It’s a private school, with an enrollment of more than 12,000, and is nonsectarian, having split from the United Methodist Church in 2019. The Pac-12 has avoided schools with religious ties in the past.

The school has had conversations with the Pac-12, Big 12 and ACC dating back to at least last summer, a school official told The Athletic last year. Turner had a call scheduled with University of Washington president Ana Mari Cauce on Aug. 1 of last year, according to an email obtained by The Athletic in a public records request. Kliavkoff’s visit on Wednesday was a big step toward a possible transformative moment for a school slowly working its way back to a major conference since the Southwest Conference dissolved in 1996.

San Diego State, which hosted Kliavkoff in December according to multiple reports, is confident about its position for Pac-12 expansion. The Aztecs’ case: a presence in Southern California, a new $310 million football stadium, an expanding campus and a combined football/men’s basketball record second only to Ohio State among FBS programs since 2010. The school put together a strategic operations plan to help prepare a possible move to the Pac-12, an idea SDSU took from Utah.

“We’re competitive in all of our sports, we invest in our programs, and we’re a rising star from an academic standpoint,” athletic director JD Wicker said last month, adding separately, “If an opportunity comes to anyone to elevate, no one is going to say no. We’ll continue to be the best San Diego State we can be, and see where that leads up. We’ll work with (commissioner Gloria Nevarez) and the Mountain West to make sure we’re being the best partner to everyone we can be.”

Leaders around college sports believe San Diego State is the No. 1 football option for the Pac-12 if it expands, but the longer the media deal negotiations drag out, the harder it is to predict what will happen.

Where the Big 12 stands

The Big 12 is now well-positioned to benefit from any Pac-12 chaos. But first, it needs to finalize its divorce from Oklahoma and Texas.

Conversations continue about an early exit for the two departing schools, which are contractually bound to the Big 12 through the 2024-25 academic year. Talks that would allow the Sooners and Longhorns to move on to the SEC ahead of the 2024 football season hit a snag last week, but they are not dead, two people with knowledge of the negotiations said.

Because of the number of parties — the Big 12 and its remaining schools, Oklahoma, Texas and television partners ESPN and Fox — the discussions are complex. While it remains possible the talks stall and Oklahoma and Texas are forced to stay through June 2025, neither side feels as if the discussions are close to a drop-dead deadline.

“Everybody wants to get it done,” one high-ranking official at a Big 12 school said. “It comes down to ESPN and Fox working their deal out. Fox doesn’t want to give up too much content for 2024.”

ESPN will become the exclusive home of the SEC starting in 2024-25, so adding the incoming members at that time would be ideal. But Fox must be made whole in some way if it’s going to agree to surrender its rights to 2024 games featuring the Big 12’s two biggest ratings-drivers. As one conference source close to the situation put it, “Fox doesn’t feel they need to give away something that they already have.”

Even if the Fox-ESPN dynamic is truly the missing piece in these negotiations, leaders at Oklahoma and Texas would also need to be satisfied with the other critical detail — the expensive exit penalties — needed for settling on an early split.

First-year Big 12 commissioner Brett Yormark has a lot of bold ideas for the future of the Big 12 and plenty he is determined to accomplish, but he can’t move forward with many of those ambitions until this early exit gets resolved.

Yormark quickly delivered on a new media rights deal for the conference last October, agreeing to a six-year extension with ESPN and Fox through 2030-31 that will pay an average of $380 million per year. That maneuver to effectively leapfrog the Pac-12 when it had the advantage of being next to market is looking wiser by the day.

The Big 12 has been eyeing the four remaining Pac-12 South schools — Arizona, Arizona State, Colorado and Utah — since last summer but certainly also views Oregon and Washington as prized targets. Big Ten commissioner Kevin Warren’s departure makes it tough for those two schools to assess whether they fit into that conference’s future plans. The longer the Pac-12’s hunt for an acceptable TV deal drags on and stirs doubts about the conference’s financial future, the easier it becomes for Yormark to make his pitch to those schools.

That’s not his only option. The Big 12 continues to talk with Gonzaga, one high-ranking source at the school confirmed. They described the Big 12’s approach as much more forward-thinking than the Pac-12. Yormark’s background is in basketball, and he sees serious potential in the idea of making the best men’s basketball conference even stronger. The challenge for Gonzaga is convincing either conference to invite it as more than just a basketball-only member. There’s still reluctance to make a move unless it’s for all sports.

When the Big 12 went through its last round of expansion in 2021, SMU was considered but wasn’t viewed as a serious contender. The concern was and has long been that SMU wouldn’t add value for the Big 12. But would the Pac-12 inviting SMU and entering the Dallas-Fort Worth market be detrimental for the Big 12? How will Yormark and his board assess that threat?

— The Athletic’s Andy Staples, Dana O’Neil and Christian Caple contributed to this report.

 

[Laxtonto 12080]

18 minutes ago, Texas Wahoo said:

Anyone have access to this? https://theathletic.com/4171699/2023/02/09/college-football-realignment-pac-12-smu-big-12/.

Spoiler

Written by Stewart Mandel, Nicole Auerbach, Max Olson and Chris Vannini.

Realignment is back in the news, thanks to continued discussions within the Big 12 about early exits for Oklahoma and Texas, and Pac-12 commissioner George Kliavkoff’s visit to SMU on Wednesday.

Here is the latest from The Athletic’s reporters.

Pac-12 media rights

Last July, shortly after USC and UCLA’s defections, the Pac-12 opened negotiations for its next media rights contract, which would take effect with the 2024 football season. Seven months later, there’s still no deal — and people are getting antsy. With good reason.

Three people with knowledge of the discussions said commissioner George Kliavkoff is struggling to find partners willing to pay close to what the league is seeking. Two of those sources said Kliavkoff overpromised his members on how many bidders there would be and what dollar amount they could command — a target north of $40 million per school, according to one league athletic director. Today, it’s uncertain whether the Pac-12 will even be able to exceed the $31.6 million average the Big 12 reportedly landed in a six-year extension with ESPN and Fox it reached last fall.

“(We) don’t have a deal because it hasn’t been good,” said the AD.

Kliavkoff made some key miscalculations. At last summer’s Pac-12 media day, he suggested the Big Ten’s pending jackpot — which wound up being for $8.1 billion over seven years — would have a ripple effect on the Pac-12. But the Big Ten is a much more watched conference that garnered interest from nearly every major linear and digital media company. The Pac-12, by contrast, has found fewer bidders since going to the open market. Fox, for one, has expressed little interest now that the Los Angeles schools are part of its prized Big Ten package. And CBS (Big Ten and Mountain West) and NBC (Big Ten and Notre Dame) are set in college football for the next several years. However, one Pac-12 administrator did indicate a new player emerged shortly after the new year.

Kliavkoff also sounded certain last summer that his league would be next in line after the Big Ten because its deal was up a year earlier than the Big 12’s (which runs through 2025). But Big 12 counterpart Brett Yormark outflanked him, convincing existing partners ESPN and Fox to open up negotiations a year early. Whereas Kliavkoff drew out the process by taking his rights to market, Yormark reached an extension of the current contract within a couple of months. And the Big 12’s agreement may have provided its own ripple effect on negotiations by unofficially setting a ceiling. 

“It’s tough when your neighbor across the street sells his house for a low price,” said the Pac-12 administrator.

 

ESPN remains interested in the Pac-12, particularly in the league’s 10:30 p.m. ET games, but New York Post sports media writer Andrew Marchand reported last fall that the Pac-12 and ESPN were “hundreds of millions apart.” Which may explain why the Pac-12 is looking at possibly putting the majority of its games on a streaming platform. Sports Business Journal’s John Ourand predicted in December the league will “sell almost its entire media package to Amazon for a price that is slightly higher than what the Big 12 gets from ESPN and Fox.”

Which brings us back to expansion. Adding schools like San Diego State and SMU would not add significant value in a traditional TV deal, but a streaming service like Amazon or ESPN+ could be interested in volume. Inviting two more schools would add an extra 15 or so football games a year, which would raise the overall dollar amount (say, from $270 million a year to $300 million a year). Two sources believe the new schools would initially receive less than a full share — not unusual in these situations — which would up the existing schools’ slice of the pie.

While those sources still believe the media deal will be completed before any expansion becomes official, they also understand there could be pressure from media partners to swap the order of events so they know exactly what that inventory will be.

SMU and San Diego State in focus

SMU’s home basketball game on Wednesday night was supposed to serve as a secret pitch meeting, but it became a public demonstration. Multiple promotions and honors were scheduled heading into the matchup with Temple, including football players being told to attend the game. Several people in the athletic department weren’t sure why. The reason for the emphasis became clear when The Action Network first reported that Kliavkoff would visit SMU on Wednesday and On3 reported he would be at the game.

After a cold and rainy day in Dallas, Kliavkoff indeed attended. He tried to stay inconspicuous, wearing a black NBA Finals hat and a black quarter-zip. But The Athletic and the Dallas Morning News spotted him in a suite at the top of Moody Coliseum. He was flanked by two men who appeared to be Pac-12 deputy commissioner/COO Jamie Zaninovich and senior vice president of strategy Erik Hardenbergh. Throughout the game, the trio met with SMU president R. Gerald Turner, board of trustees chair and megadonor David B. Miller, athletic director Rick Hart and executive deputy AD/COO Kurt Pottkotter. Kliavkoff and Turner spoke for most of the second half, which saw SMU win on a free throw with three seconds left. The commissioner left the arena out of the view of media.

 

SMU did not want this visit to become public, as conferences and schools prefer to keep realignment workings behind closed doors. Even after the news leaked, many SMU officials wouldn’t say a word on or off the record and wouldn’t confirm Kliavkoff’s appearance at the game. Many had found out he was coming only when the news broke.

But the suddenly public nature of the visit provided an opportunity. SMU’s student section was packed and scattered with signs with Pac-12 references. One fan, Jack Joyce, wrote “Pac” on the back of an SMU club baseball jersey with the No. 12. Dallas mayor Eric Johnson tweeted his support before tipoff.

After the win, Mustangs basketball coach Rob Lanier was asked whether he knew the Pac-12 commissioner was there and replied, “I read that, yep.”

SMU’s Pac-12 case is centered on its location in Dallas, which would bring the Pac-12 into Texas and the Central time zone, along with solid academics (it is a top-75 national university per U.S. News & World Report and is working to become a R1 research school) and a lot of money (a $2 billion endowment and many active big-money donors). It’s a private school, with an enrollment of more than 12,000, and is nonsectarian, having split from the United Methodist Church in 2019. The Pac-12 has avoided schools with religious ties in the past.

The school has had conversations with the Pac-12, Big 12 and ACC dating back to at least last summer, a school official told The Athletic last year. Turner had a call scheduled with University of Washington president Ana Mari Cauce on Aug. 1 of last year, according to an email obtained by The Athletic in a public records request. Kliavkoff’s visit on Wednesday was a big step toward a possible transformative moment for a school slowly working its way back to a major conference since the Southwest Conference dissolved in 1996.

San Diego State, which hosted Kliavkoff in December according to multiple reports, is confident about its position for Pac-12 expansion. The Aztecs’ case: a presence in Southern California, a new $310 million football stadium, an expanding campus and a combined football/men’s basketball record second only to Ohio State among FBS programs since 2010. The school put together a strategic operations plan to help prepare a possible move to the Pac-12, an idea SDSU took from Utah.

“We’re competitive in all of our sports, we invest in our programs, and we’re a rising star from an academic standpoint,” athletic director JD Wicker said last month, adding separately, “If an opportunity comes to anyone to elevate, no one is going to say no. We’ll continue to be the best San Diego State we can be, and see where that leads up. We’ll work with (commissioner Gloria Nevarez) and the Mountain West to make sure we’re being the best partner to everyone we can be.”

Leaders around college sports believe San Diego State is the No. 1 football option for the Pac-12 if it expands, but the longer the media deal negotiations drag out, the harder it is to predict what will happen.

Where the Big 12 stands

The Big 12 is now well-positioned to benefit from any Pac-12 chaos. But first, it needs to finalize its divorce from Oklahoma and Texas.

Conversations continue about an early exit for the two departing schools, which are contractually bound to the Big 12 through the 2024-25 academic year. Talks that would allow the Sooners and Longhorns to move on to the SEC ahead of the 2024 football season hit a snag last week, but they are not dead, two people with knowledge of the negotiations said.

Because of the number of parties — the Big 12 and its remaining schools, Oklahoma, Texas and television partners ESPN and Fox — the discussions are complex. While it remains possible the talks stall and Oklahoma and Texas are forced to stay through June 2025, neither side feels as if the discussions are close to a drop-dead deadline.

“Everybody wants to get it done,” one high-ranking official at a Big 12 school said. “It comes down to ESPN and Fox working their deal out. Fox doesn’t want to give up too much content for 2024.”

ESPN will become the exclusive home of the SEC starting in 2024-25, so adding the incoming members at that time would be ideal. But Fox must be made whole in some way if it’s going to agree to surrender its rights to 2024 games featuring the Big 12’s two biggest ratings-drivers. As one conference source close to the situation put it, “Fox doesn’t feel they need to give away something that they already have.”

Even if the Fox-ESPN dynamic is truly the missing piece in these negotiations, leaders at Oklahoma and Texas would also need to be satisfied with the other critical detail — the expensive exit penalties — needed for settling on an early split.

First-year Big 12 commissioner Brett Yormark has a lot of bold ideas for the future of the Big 12 and plenty he is determined to accomplish, but he can’t move forward with many of those ambitions until this early exit gets resolved.

Yormark quickly delivered on a new media rights deal for the conference last October, agreeing to a six-year extension with ESPN and Fox through 2030-31 that will pay an average of $380 million per year. That maneuver to effectively leapfrog the Pac-12 when it had the advantage of being next to market is looking wiser by the day.

The Big 12 has been eyeing the four remaining Pac-12 South schools — Arizona, Arizona State, Colorado and Utah — since last summer but certainly also views Oregon and Washington as prized targets. Big Ten commissioner Kevin Warren’s departure makes it tough for those two schools to assess whether they fit into that conference’s future plans. The longer the Pac-12’s hunt for an acceptable TV deal drags on and stirs doubts about the conference’s financial future, the easier it becomes for Yormark to make his pitch to those schools.

That’s not his only option. The Big 12 continues to talk with Gonzaga, one high-ranking source at the school confirmed. They described the Big 12’s approach as much more forward-thinking than the Pac-12. Yormark’s background is in basketball, and he sees serious potential in the idea of making the best men’s basketball conference even stronger. The challenge for Gonzaga is convincing either conference to invite it as more than just a basketball-only member. There’s still reluctance to make a move unless it’s for all sports.

When the Big 12 went through its last round of expansion in 2021, SMU was considered but wasn’t viewed as a serious contender. The concern was and has long been that SMU wouldn’t add value for the Big 12. But would the Pac-12 inviting SMU and entering the Dallas-Fort Worth market be detrimental for the Big 12? How will Yormark and his board assess that threat?

— The Athletic’s Andy Staples, Dana O’Neil and Christian Caple contributed to this report.

 

[Saint Austin 745]

38 minutes ago, Trojan Man said:

I highly recommend subbing to The Athletic, especially if there are multiple sports and teams you follow.  Lots of deep content and most of their writers regularly engage with readers.

  Reveal hidden contents

Written by Stewart Mandel, Nicole Auerbach, Max Olson and Chris Vannini.

Realignment is back in the news, thanks to continued discussions within the Big 12 about early exits for Oklahoma and Texas, and Pac-12 commissioner George Kliavkoff’s visit to SMU on Wednesday.

Here is the latest from The Athletic’s reporters.

Pac-12 media rights

Last July, shortly after USC and UCLA’s defections, the Pac-12 opened negotiations for its next media rights contract, which would take effect with the 2024 football season. Seven months later, there’s still no deal — and people are getting antsy. With good reason.

Three people with knowledge of the discussions said commissioner George Kliavkoff is struggling to find partners willing to pay close to what the league is seeking. Two of those sources said Kliavkoff overpromised his members on how many bidders there would be and what dollar amount they could command — a target north of $40 million per school, according to one league athletic director. Today, it’s uncertain whether the Pac-12 will even be able to exceed the $31.6 million average the Big 12 reportedly landed in a six-year extension with ESPN and Fox it reached last fall.

“(We) don’t have a deal because it hasn’t been good,” said the AD.

Kliavkoff made some key miscalculations. At last summer’s Pac-12 media day, he suggested the Big Ten’s pending jackpot — which wound up being for $8.1 billion over seven years — would have a ripple effect on the Pac-12. But the Big Ten is a much more watched conference that garnered interest from nearly every major linear and digital media company. The Pac-12, by contrast, has found fewer bidders since going to the open market. Fox, for one, has expressed little interest now that the Los Angeles schools are part of its prized Big Ten package. And CBS (Big Ten and Mountain West) and NBC (Big Ten and Notre Dame) are set in college football for the next several years. However, one Pac-12 administrator did indicate a new player emerged shortly after the new year.

Kliavkoff also sounded certain last summer that his league would be next in line after the Big Ten because its deal was up a year earlier than the Big 12’s (which runs through 2025). But Big 12 counterpart Brett Yormark outflanked him, convincing existing partners ESPN and Fox to open up negotiations a year early. Whereas Kliavkoff drew out the process by taking his rights to market, Yormark reached an extension of the current contract within a couple of months. And the Big 12’s agreement may have provided its own ripple effect on negotiations by unofficially setting a ceiling. 

“It’s tough when your neighbor across the street sells his house for a low price,” said the Pac-12 administrator.

 

ESPN remains interested in the Pac-12, particularly in the league’s 10:30 p.m. ET games, but New York Post sports media writer Andrew Marchand reported last fall that the Pac-12 and ESPN were “hundreds of millions apart.” Which may explain why the Pac-12 is looking at possibly putting the majority of its games on a streaming platform. Sports Business Journal’s John Ourand predicted in December the league will “sell almost its entire media package to Amazon for a price that is slightly higher than what the Big 12 gets from ESPN and Fox.”

Which brings us back to expansion. Adding schools like San Diego State and SMU would not add significant value in a traditional TV deal, but a streaming service like Amazon or ESPN+ could be interested in volume. Inviting two more schools would add an extra 15 or so football games a year, which would raise the overall dollar amount (say, from $270 million a year to $300 million a year). Two sources believe the new schools would initially receive less than a full share — not unusual in these situations — which would up the existing schools’ slice of the pie.

While those sources still believe the media deal will be completed before any expansion becomes official, they also understand there could be pressure from media partners to swap the order of events so they know exactly what that inventory will be.

SMU and San Diego State in focus

SMU’s home basketball game on Wednesday night was supposed to serve as a secret pitch meeting, but it became a public demonstration. Multiple promotions and honors were scheduled heading into the matchup with Temple, including football players being told to attend the game. Several people in the athletic department weren’t sure why. The reason for the emphasis became clear when The Action Network first reported that Kliavkoff would visit SMU on Wednesday and On3 reported he would be at the game.

After a cold and rainy day in Dallas, Kliavkoff indeed attended. He tried to stay inconspicuous, wearing a black NBA Finals hat and a black quarter-zip. But The Athletic and the Dallas Morning News spotted him in a suite at the top of Moody Coliseum. He was flanked by two men who appeared to be Pac-12 deputy commissioner/COO Jamie Zaninovich and senior vice president of strategy Erik Hardenbergh. Throughout the game, the trio met with SMU president R. Gerald Turner, board of trustees chair and megadonor David B. Miller, athletic director Rick Hart and executive deputy AD/COO Kurt Pottkotter. Kliavkoff and Turner spoke for most of the second half, which saw SMU win on a free throw with three seconds left. The commissioner left the arena out of the view of media.

 

SMU did not want this visit to become public, as conferences and schools prefer to keep realignment workings behind closed doors. Even after the news leaked, many SMU officials wouldn’t say a word on or off the record and wouldn’t confirm Kliavkoff’s appearance at the game. Many had found out he was coming only when the news broke.

But the suddenly public nature of the visit provided an opportunity. SMU’s student section was packed and scattered with signs with Pac-12 references. One fan, Jack Joyce, wrote “Pac” on the back of an SMU club baseball jersey with the No. 12. Dallas mayor Eric Johnson tweeted his support before tipoff.

After the win, Mustangs basketball coach Rob Lanier was asked whether he knew the Pac-12 commissioner was there and replied, “I read that, yep.”

SMU’s Pac-12 case is centered on its location in Dallas, which would bring the Pac-12 into Texas and the Central time zone, along with solid academics (it is a top-75 national university per U.S. News & World Report and is working to become a R1 research school) and a lot of money (a $2 billion endowment and many active big-money donors). It’s a private school, with an enrollment of more than 12,000, and is nonsectarian, having split from the United Methodist Church in 2019. The Pac-12 has avoided schools with religious ties in the past.

The school has had conversations with the Pac-12, Big 12 and ACC dating back to at least last summer, a school official told The Athletic last year. Turner had a call scheduled with University of Washington president Ana Mari Cauce on Aug. 1 of last year, according to an email obtained by The Athletic in a public records request. Kliavkoff’s visit on Wednesday was a big step toward a possible transformative moment for a school slowly working its way back to a major conference since the Southwest Conference dissolved in 1996.

San Diego State, which hosted Kliavkoff in December according to multiple reports, is confident about its position for Pac-12 expansion. The Aztecs’ case: a presence in Southern California, a new $310 million football stadium, an expanding campus and a combined football/men’s basketball record second only to Ohio State among FBS programs since 2010. The school put together a strategic operations plan to help prepare a possible move to the Pac-12, an idea SDSU took from Utah.

“We’re competitive in all of our sports, we invest in our programs, and we’re a rising star from an academic standpoint,” athletic director JD Wicker said last month, adding separately, “If an opportunity comes to anyone to elevate, no one is going to say no. We’ll continue to be the best San Diego State we can be, and see where that leads up. We’ll work with (commissioner Gloria Nevarez) and the Mountain West to make sure we’re being the best partner to everyone we can be.”

Leaders around college sports believe San Diego State is the No. 1 football option for the Pac-12 if it expands, but the longer the media deal negotiations drag out, the harder it is to predict what will happen.

Where the Big 12 stands

The Big 12 is now well-positioned to benefit from any Pac-12 chaos. But first, it needs to finalize its divorce from Oklahoma and Texas.

Conversations continue about an early exit for the two departing schools, which are contractually bound to the Big 12 through the 2024-25 academic year. Talks that would allow the Sooners and Longhorns to move on to the SEC ahead of the 2024 football season hit a snag last week, but they are not dead, two people with knowledge of the negotiations said.

Because of the number of parties — the Big 12 and its remaining schools, Oklahoma, Texas and television partners ESPN and Fox — the discussions are complex. While it remains possible the talks stall and Oklahoma and Texas are forced to stay through June 2025, neither side feels as if the discussions are close to a drop-dead deadline.

“Everybody wants to get it done,” one high-ranking official at a Big 12 school said. “It comes down to ESPN and Fox working their deal out. Fox doesn’t want to give up too much content for 2024.”

ESPN will become the exclusive home of the SEC starting in 2024-25, so adding the incoming members at that time would be ideal. But Fox must be made whole in some way if it’s going to agree to surrender its rights to 2024 games featuring the Big 12’s two biggest ratings-drivers. As one conference source close to the situation put it, “Fox doesn’t feel they need to give away something that they already have.”

Even if the Fox-ESPN dynamic is truly the missing piece in these negotiations, leaders at Oklahoma and Texas would also need to be satisfied with the other critical detail — the expensive exit penalties — needed for settling on an early split.

First-year Big 12 commissioner Brett Yormark has a lot of bold ideas for the future of the Big 12 and plenty he is determined to accomplish, but he can’t move forward with many of those ambitions until this early exit gets resolved.

Yormark quickly delivered on a new media rights deal for the conference last October, agreeing to a six-year extension with ESPN and Fox through 2030-31 that will pay an average of $380 million per year. That maneuver to effectively leapfrog the Pac-12 when it had the advantage of being next to market is looking wiser by the day.

The Big 12 has been eyeing the four remaining Pac-12 South schools — Arizona, Arizona State, Colorado and Utah — since last summer but certainly also views Oregon and Washington as prized targets. Big Ten commissioner Kevin Warren’s departure makes it tough for those two schools to assess whether they fit into that conference’s future plans. The longer the Pac-12’s hunt for an acceptable TV deal drags on and stirs doubts about the conference’s financial future, the easier it becomes for Yormark to make his pitch to those schools.

That’s not his only option. The Big 12 continues to talk with Gonzaga, one high-ranking source at the school confirmed. They described the Big 12’s approach as much more forward-thinking than the Pac-12. Yormark’s background is in basketball, and he sees serious potential in the idea of making the best men’s basketball conference even stronger. The challenge for Gonzaga is convincing either conference to invite it as more than just a basketball-only member. There’s still reluctance to make a move unless it’s for all sports.

When the Big 12 went through its last round of expansion in 2021, SMU was considered but wasn’t viewed as a serious contender. The concern was and has long been that SMU wouldn’t add value for the Big 12. But would the Pac-12 inviting SMU and entering the Dallas-Fort Worth market be detrimental for the Big 12? How will Yormark and his board assess that threat?

— The Athletic’s Andy Staples, Dana O’Neil and Christian Caple contributed to this report.

 

Geez, I have a diploma from SMU and live in Dallas, but had no idea the school had left the Methodist church.

[Thiefery 4995]

I sorta feel bad for that conference (PAC) because they have had bad luck with their commissioners.. 

I do think Larry Scott had the right idea, but he really needed to do everything to get UT and the other 3 schools to join. I think he was willing to accept LHN but his bosses said no and left it at that. 

I wish the Big12 had Yorkman back in the Beebe days.. Conference would most likely have kept every member and who knows, they could be poaching SC and UCLA