Realignment talk not going away

[Al_4_ISU 12463]

14 minutes ago, LTbear said:

I think some schools (like Oregon) definitely care about less money and less exposure. 

Well, we'll know soon enough.

[BurntOrange&White 39933]

28 minutes ago, LTbear said:

I think some schools (like Oregon) definitely care about less money and less exposure. 

Or like 10-30 million dollars in more revenue, depending on conference. 

[LTbear 4169]

15 minutes ago, Al_4_ISU said:

Well, we'll know soon enough.

Yep. I'm curious if Oregon and a couple others are pushing for unequal sharing of post season revenues. Would be a way to keep them whole with the ballooning playoff payouts. 

[Hurtlocker 2212]

2 hours ago, LTbear said:

Yep. I'm curious if Oregon and a couple others are pushing for unequal sharing of post season revenues. Would be a way to keep them whole with the ballooning playoff payouts. 

It gets it closer.   The post season is going to skyrocket shortly.  Some is inflation, some is the games doing well, some is the added inventory.   Regardless, if they keep it similar to how they do it now, conferences should see a doubling of their payouts.   No matter what happens, i don't see the splitting evenly by conference going away.   It keeps congress from looking too close.   Or they'll like share 80% evenly and 20% will go to teams playing per round to help offset expenses.   However it works, the Pac is going to get a very big playoff payday, if they survive long enough to be there when the dust settles.

Prior the Pac-12 made about $50m for the playoff and $40m for the rose.   This is why the B12 made $20m in TV, but paid out $40m.   So, lets say they pull in $200m a year in playoff now.   If their TV deal is $30m a year and they split this evenly, they're at $50m.   Still a big gap.  But if they give 50% to the teams representing and 50% to the rest, then if two teams got in a year, which seems very likely:

• 8 Non-playoff teams = $30m + $12.5 = $42.5m
• 2 Playoff teams = $30m + $50m = $80m 

Now Oregon and Washington may not care to change, because they're much closer to the B1G/SEC and their odds of getting into the playoffs are astronomically higher in the Pac10/12

The ACC could do something similar for FSU/Clemson, spending new money to keep them around.

After this upheaval, I cannot imagine Oregon State or Cal arguing against this approach.   Everyone believes they have a chance, especially if your name is Oregon, Washington, Utah, Washington State, Colorado Primetime, or the Arizona schools.

The downside, for those who think they have a chance, but don't, is that the rich will only get richer because they can't afford to NOT make the playoffs.

Edited February 21, 2023 by Hurtlocker

[Trojan Man 429]

5 hours ago, LTbear said:

I think some schools (like Oregon) definitely care about less money and less exposure. 

I think Oregon cares less about the money than any other remaining Pac 12 school.  More is always nice for anyone but if they need money all they have to do is call their sugar daddy and he'll send a blank check.  Oregon won't be cutting sports or hiring no name coaches or flying on Spirit to road games if they end up with a crap TV contract.  For them the next media contract is all about guaranteeing a spot in the B1G after it's over, which means continuing to build their brand by maximizing exposure and playing as many high profile games as possible and going on some deep playoff runs.  Everything that is rumored for the Pac 12's next deal is a terrible outcome for Oregon from that perspective.

Streaming means only Pac 12 fans will watch those games and they won't be shown in bars or restaurants outside of Pac 12 cities.  Oregon would get more ESPN appearances than any other Pac 12 program but all their ESPN games will be at 10:30 ET which is shit for exposure.  The more I think about it, the smarter it seems for Oregon to leave for the Big 12.  They'll get much better TV windows and timeslots for their games.  They'll draw viewers from both the Pac 12's footprint and the Big 12's footprint instead of just the Pac 12.  All the Pac 12 teams worth a damn would follow them so culturally they won't be the odd man out or geographically isolated or leaving behind the biggest game they play against Washington.  The new Pac 12 will be a one bid league in the CFP so if Oregon loses to Washington or Utah they're probably fucked on a playoff run and the accompanying exposure for that season.  The new Big 12 will get an at large bid most years and if they raid 4-6 Pac 12 teams a second at large bid is likely (adding more good teams plus trimming down auto bids from 6 to 5 if the Pac 12 dies or merges with the MWC).  That not only gives Oregon more chances at a playoff bid but more of their competition will also be going to the CFP, which translates into more attention and hype and exposure for the following year.  Basketball would be a huge upgrade in the Big 12 and that can't hurt for a program that's usually pretty respectable.

Oregon has less West Coast elitism and academic snobbery than most of the Pac 12 so they might be able to get over themselves enough to take the plunge.  It comes down to whether their decision makers think the advantages I described outweigh the potential of dominating the Pac 12.  If Oregon thinks they can get the Pac 12's autobid more often than not and then win at least a game or two in every CFP appearance that could overcome the poor regular season exposure.  But that carries a huge amount of risk.  Every program is one bad hire away from the wilderness.  If Oregon has a downturn while all their games are buried on Amazon or the After Dark window and the only people watching are die hard Pac 12 fans and they aren't making any CFP appearances to compensate for that they're out of sight and out of mind, totally forgotten in the CFB landscape.  That is apocalyptic for their B1G aspirations.  If they struggle in the Big 12 at least they're still on TV and playing some games at a reasonable hour and drawing in viewers east of the Rockies.

[bullet 1597]

3 hours ago, Hurtlocker said:

It gets it closer.   The post season is going to skyrocket shortly.  Some is inflation, some is the games doing well, some is the added inventory.   Regardless, if they keep it similar to how they do it now, conferences should see a doubling of their payouts.   No matter what happens, i don't see the splitting evenly by conference going away.   It keeps congress from looking too close.   Or they'll like share 80% evenly and 20% will go to teams playing per round to help offset expenses.   However it works, the Pac is going to get a very big playoff payday, if they survive long enough to be there when the dust settles.

Prior the Pac-12 made about $50m for the playoff and $40m for the rose.   This is why the B12 made $20m in TV, but paid out $40m.   So, lets say they pull in $200m a year in playoff now.   If their TV deal is $30m a year and they split this evenly, they're at $50m.   Still a big gap.  But if they give 50% to the teams representing and 50% to the rest, then if two teams got in a year, which seems very likely:

• 8 Non-playoff teams = $30m + $12.5 = $42.5m
• 2 Playoff teams = $30m + $50m = $80m 

Now Oregon and Washington may not care to change, because they're much closer to the B1G/SEC and their odds of getting into the playoffs are astronomically higher in the Pac10/12

The ACC could do something similar for FSU/Clemson, spending new money to keep them around.

After this upheaval, I cannot imagine Oregon State or Cal arguing against this approach.   Everyone believes they have a chance, especially if your name is Oregon, Washington, Utah, Washington State, Colorado Primetime, or the Arizona schools.

The downside, for those who think they have a chance, but don't, is that the rich will only get richer because they can't afford to NOT make the playoffs.

They haven't talked publicly about participation money, which was minimal in the old deal, $6 million for the 1st and $4 million for the 2nd participant in each conference, but they have decided other payouts will be pro rata equal per conference, i.e. a 16 team conference gets 1.6 times what a 10 team conference gets, so that you don't get a benefit by being smaller as the Big 12 did and as the Big East did in BCS days.

[SimonBolivar 10958]

On 2/20/2023 at 12:07 PM, 'stache said:

I think SMU could find a good niche with Dallas football fans who don't care to go to Arlington and deal with the gameday nightmare. They already started with their Dallas campaign, but could really get a boost playing better programs. It wouldn't be the same as the old PAC, but better in general than the AAC. But if I'm SDSU and SMU I'd be warry of joining a sinking ship, like when TCU joined the Big East and got lucky that they made it to the Big XII after that collapse.

Do these people exist in large enough numbers? I think they do in the 1980s, but I don't think they do in 2023 and beyond. I don't see Joe T Dallas opening the paper and saying "oh wow, SMU is playing Oregon State tomorrow. Let's go to the game!!" Instead they'll likely stay home to watch whomever they are a fan of already and enjoy a few games on the big screen. 

[SimonBolivar 10958]

On 2/20/2023 at 12:07 PM, 'stache said:

I think SMU could find a good niche with Dallas football fans who don't care to go to Arlington and deal with the gameday nightmare. They already started with their Dallas campaign, but could really get a boost playing better programs. It wouldn't be the same as the old PAC, but better in general than the AAC. But if I'm SDSU and SMU I'd be warry of joining a sinking ship, like when TCU joined the Big East and got lucky that they made it to the Big XII after that collapse.

Do these people exist in large enough numbers? I think they do in the 1980s, but I don't think they do in 2023 and beyond. I don't see Joe T Dallas opening the paper and saying "oh wow, SMU is playing Oregon State tomorrow. Let's go to the game!!" Instead they'll likely stay home to watch whomever they are a fan of already and enjoy a few other games on the big screen between ranked teams. 

[Uncle Nate 2097]

9 minutes ago, SimonBolivar said:

Do these people exist in large enough numbers? I think they do in the 1980s, but I don't think they do in 2023 and beyond. I don't see Joe T Dallas opening the paper and saying "oh wow, SMU is playing Oregon State tomorrow. Let's go to the game!!" Instead they'll likely stay home to watch whomever they are a fan of already and enjoy a few other games on the big screen between ranked teams. 

No, they don't.

SMU has more people at the tailgates along the Boulevard than in the stadium.  When they have ranked teams come to play, the stadium is still half-empty.  Last time I saw that stadium full was when Tech played there years ago.

[billfromlaketravis 11480]

16 minutes ago, Uncle Nate said:

No, they don't.

SMU has more people at the tailgates along the Boulevard than in the stadium.  When they have ranked teams come to play, the stadium is still half-empty.  Last time I saw that stadium full was when Tech played there years ago.

Boulevard’ing is the shit. Level 1.

[Texas Wahoo 3397]

https://nypost.com/2023/02/21/apple-emerges-as-potential-landing-spot-for-pac-12-football/

Quote

It is about to start a 10-year, $2.5 billion agreement with MLS in which it will have the global rights to stream all the league’s games with an all-inclusive package that is $99 for subscribers. An all-in deal similar to MLS would be more in line for the Pac-12 with Apple.

If this ends up being a separate deal where you have to pay $X per year for Pac 12 content, that is way worse than just being on Amazon Prime available to everyone with Prime.  No one that is not a fan of a Pac 12 team is going to fork over money for just Pac 12 sports.

[Uncle Nate 2097]

1 hour ago, Texas Wahoo said:

https://nypost.com/2023/02/21/apple-emerges-as-potential-landing-spot-for-pac-12-football/

If this ends up being a separate deal where you have to pay $X per year for Pac 12 content, that is way worse than just being on Amazon Prime available to everyone with Prime.  No one that is not a fan of a Pac 12 team is going to fork over money for just Pac 12 sports.

Not even sure the Pac 12 fans will fork over the money either.

[statsman 5470]

2 hours ago, Trojan Man said:

I think Oregon cares less about the money than any other remaining Pac 12 school.  More is always nice for anyone but if they need money all they have to do is call their sugar daddy and he'll send a blank check.  Oregon won't be cutting sports or hiring no name coaches or flying on Spirit to road games if they end up with a crap TV contract.  For them the next media contract is all about guaranteeing a spot in the B1G after it's over, which means continuing to build their brand by maximizing exposure and playing as many high profile games as possible and going on some deep playoff runs.  Everything that is rumored for the Pac 12's next deal is a terrible outcome for Oregon from that perspective.

Streaming means only Pac 12 fans will watch those games and they won't be shown in bars or restaurants outside of Pac 12 cities.  Oregon would get more ESPN appearances than any other Pac 12 program but all their ESPN games will be at 10:30 ET which is shit for exposure.  The more I think about it, the smarter it seems for Oregon to leave for the Big 12.  They'll get much better TV windows and timeslots for their games.  They'll draw viewers from both the Pac 12's footprint and the Big 12's footprint instead of just the Pac 12.  All the Pac 12 teams worth a damn would follow them so culturally they won't be the odd man out or geographically isolated or leaving behind the biggest game they play against Washington.  The new Pac 12 will be a one bid league in the CFP so if Oregon loses to Washington or Utah they're probably fucked on a playoff run and the accompanying exposure for that season.  The new Big 12 will get an at large bid most years and if they raid 4-6 Pac 12 teams a second at large bid is likely (adding more good teams plus trimming down auto bids from 6 to 5 if the Pac 12 dies or merges with the MWC).  That not only gives Oregon more chances at a playoff bid but more of their competition will also be going to the CFP, which translates into more attention and hype and exposure for the following year.  Basketball would be a huge upgrade in the Big 12 and that can't hurt for a program that's usually pretty respectable.

Oregon has less West Coast elitism and academic snobbery than most of the Pac 12 so they might be able to get over themselves enough to take the plunge.  It comes down to whether their decision makers think the advantages I described outweigh the potential of dominating the Pac 12.  If Oregon thinks they can get the Pac 12's autobid more often than not and then win at least a game or two in every CFP appearance that could overcome the poor regular season exposure.  But that carries a huge amount of risk.  Every program is one bad hire away from the wilderness.  If Oregon has a downturn while all their games are buried on Amazon or the After Dark window and the only people watching are die hard Pac 12 fans and they aren't making any CFP appearances to compensate for that they're out of sight and out of mind, totally forgotten in the CFB landscape.  That is apocalyptic for their B1G aspirations.  If they struggle in the Big 12 at least they're still on TV and playing some games at a reasonable hour and drawing in viewers east of the Rockies.

You like the idea of Oregon recruiting Texas instead of southern California. I would rather they recruit California than Texas. 
 
Oregon takes and doesn’t give. If Knight’s money goes away, they’re a more academic Oregon State. They have no fundamental competitive advantage. 

[FartingDreamer 138]

24 minutes ago, statsman said:

Oregon takes and doesn’t give. If Knight’s money goes away, they’re a more academic Oregon State. They have no fundamental competitive advantage. 

No different then Oklahoma.

[camel at sea 589]

34 minutes ago, statsman said:

You like the idea of Oregon recruiting Texas instead of southern California. I would rather they recruit California than Texas. 
 
Oregon takes and doesn’t give. If Knight’s money goes away, they’re a more academic Oregon State. They have no fundamental competitive advantage. 

Oregon does well on TV and has a relatively good national brand.  They give back financially to their conference TV deal.  The problem for the Ducks is that they don't give back enough to get a B1G invite.  But f you're the Big 12 and you can get the Ducks boosting your Tier 1 slate of games, you take them gladly.  

[camel at sea 589]

2 hours ago, SimonBolivar said:

Do these people exist in large enough numbers? I think they do in the 1980s, but I don't think they do in 2023 and beyond. I don't see Joe T Dallas opening the paper and saying "oh wow, SMU is playing Oregon State tomorrow. Let's go to the game!!" Instead they'll likely stay home to watch whomever they are a fan of already and enjoy a few other games on the big screen between ranked teams. 

I think if SMU started winning at a high level, consistently, they'd start drawing casual fans to games (we saw it play out that way at TCU and Baylor.)  They've never strung together enough success to get any fan momentum going.

They're set up in the revamped AAC to win that league a lot and they'll have a good chance to make the expanded CFP as a result.  Counter-intuitively, they'd probably be better off staying where they are than jumping to the PAC where they won't win as much.  

[Gidnik 3269]

even Canzano is in a panic. 

 

[billfromlaketravis 11480]

I’m not a PR professional, but continually announcing the conference is close to a TV deal without delivering a deal is a mistake. Just don’t say anything until it’s done.
 

Don’t show me the delivery, show me the baby. 

[Laxtonto 12080]

If Apple TV is the only viable competitor for the P12 rights, then this is WAY worse than I thought.

I don't care who you are or how snobbish your school is, no university president or BOR it going to willingly invest into athletics infrastructure to have everything then streamed behind a regional-only paywall. 

Here Utah, all of your primary and secondary content is streamed on Apple TV and so the only people watching your content is your own fans that are willing to pay the package price or other P12 fans. No random kids from other parts of the country falling in love with your program by catching you on a late-night game.  No league commercials with your branding seen by potential new fans outside of the current footprint. At the same time, lets watch BYU get all of those benefits you arent.

As a university president, I would be irate if the PAc12 media rights are down to the Apple TV level of rights.

[billfromlaketravis 11480]

I don’t think Apple TV + is the worst place for the PAC. They’re pumping crazy money into original content. And they badly overpaid for baseball. Why wouldn’t they overpay for college football games in their backyard?
 

All of the MLB games are in 4K. The baseball announcers suck, but the production value is top notch. 
 

It’s also very affordable at $5.99 a month. I’m not saying kids at South Oak Cliff will be signing up to watch Utah games, but it’s not the Antarctic Regional Network. 

[Texas Wahoo 3397]

12 minutes ago, billfromlaketravis said:

I don’t think Apple TV + is the worst place for the PAC. They’re pumping crazy money into original content. And they badly overpaid for baseball. Why wouldn’t they overpay for college football games in their backyard?
 

All of the MLB games are in 4K. The baseball announcers suck, but the production value is top notch. 
 

It’s also very affordable at $5.99 a month. I’m not saying kids at South Oak Cliff will be signing up to watch Utah games, but it’s not the Antarctic Regional Network. 

The article I posted suggested that it will be like the MLS deal where you pay $99 a year for MLS content separate from the payment for normal Apple plus. It’s not likely to be like the MLB deal where you get it just for having a subscription to Apple plus. 

[Trojan Man 429]

3 hours ago, statsman said:

You like the idea of Oregon recruiting Texas instead of southern California. I would rather they recruit California than Texas. 
 
Oregon takes and doesn’t give. If Knight’s money goes away, they’re a more academic Oregon State. They have no fundamental competitive advantage. 

Oregon already recruits Texas despite being in a conference with no Texas presence.  They signed 6 TX players (all 4* recruits) in their 2023 class, including a QB they flipped from Baylor right before Signing Day.  Their average 2023 TX recruit was rated higher than the average CA recruit they signed in the same class.  Their California and Texas pipelines aren't going anywhere regardless of conference affiliation.

Knight is in his 80s and won't live forever, but I'm sure he is leaving behind a sizable gift for Oregon athletics.  Oregon's biggest non-Knight advantage is they are very popular with recruits thanks to being a hot, flashy brand for the last 15 years.  Kids think they're cool and that wins them a lot of recruiting battles.  I think they'd have an easier time maintaining and building upon that brand playing in more time zones and in better windows and on network TV more often in the Big 12 than they would playing on Tubi or the After Dark ESPN window in the Pac 12.

[Mo Horn 8842]

They've said that LHN is going to be folded into the sec network, but does that mean it will just be another channel that shows different sec stuff, or will it still be Longhorn centric where we get all home baseball games. Anyone heard anything? 

[billfromlaketravis 11480]

30 minutes ago, Texas Wahoo said:

The article I posted suggested that it will be like the MLS deal where you pay $99 a year for MLS content separate from the payment for normal Apple plus. It’s not likely to be like the MLB deal where you get it just for having a subscription to Apple plus. 

Yikes 

[Sandbagging Steve 982]

The PAC 12's very slow descent into madness pretty much broadcast out in the open for everyone to see is just too much fun. They deserve it. I bet Stanford is still in complete denial of their own incompetence and hatred that stretches back decades. They are the #1, #2, and #3 reasons the PAC is in this embarrassing freefall. I've never seen anything quite like this.

[TKthunder2 4991]

20 minutes ago, Mo Horn said:

They've said that LHN is going to be folded into the sec network, but does that mean it will just be another channel that shows different sec stuff, or will it still be Longhorn centric where we get all home baseball games. Anyone heard anything? 

UT’s 3rd tier rights will be folded into the SECN just like every other SEC team. There will not be a Longhorn branded network.

As to what ESPN will do with the channel, we do not know. Rumors have ranged from it will be converted to another SEC Network like ESPN2 for the Western teams, that it’ll be converted to a Big 12 network to house all the Big 12 3rd tier content currently relegated to ESPN+, or that it’ll be converted to an ESPNW channel to highlight women’s sports. It could also just shut down but that seems wasteful, considering all the work effort ESPN spent to get it up and running and into multiple provider carriage agreements.

Rumors also have ESPN keeping/maintaining the LHN studio in Austin simply because there is a ton of creative talent in this town that ESPN can still take advantage of. That being said, with the ever increasing cost of living in Austin, I wouldn’t be shocked if they shut it down.

[statsman 5470]

3 hours ago, FartingDreamer said:

No different then Oklahoma.

Oklahoma has an artificial advantage- it claims Texas as it’s recruiting territory. 
 
Oregon wants to do the same. I know that TT, BU, TCU and UH are willing to whore out Texas recruits to get themselves into a P5 conference, but they should be reluctant to let Oregon in to nab the best. It brings a name, but not enough TV sets to be worth it. 

[bullet 1597]

51 minutes ago, Mo Horn said:

They've said that LHN is going to be folded into the sec network, but does that mean it will just be another channel that shows different sec stuff, or will it still be Longhorn centric where we get all home baseball games. Anyone heard anything? 

Haven't heard anything, but every indication it will just be part of the SEC network.  So you won't get a lot of Longhorn non-rev stuff.  The network will be split 16 ways.

[billfromlaketravis 11480]

25 minutes ago, TKthunder2 said:

UT’s 3rd tier rights will be folded into the SECN just like every other SEC team. There will not be a Longhorn branded network.

As to what ESPN will do with the channel, we do not know. Rumors have ranged from it will be converted to another SEC Network like ESPN2 for the Western teams, that it’ll be converted to a Big 12 network to house all the Big 12 3rd tier content currently relegated to ESPN+, or that it’ll be converted to an ESPNW channel to highlight women’s sports. It could also just shut down but that seems wasteful, considering all the work effort ESPN spent to get it up and running and into multiple provider carriage agreements.

Rumors also have ESPN keeping/maintaining the LHN studio in Austin simply because there is a ton of creative talent in this town that ESPN can still take advantage of. That being said, with the ever increasing cost of living in Austin, I wouldn’t be shocked if they shut it down.

SEC Network West seems to be the most persistent rumor. So much so that office aggy is already firing up the tinfoil antennas. 
 

Not sure how helps the logistics of SECN, but I’m here for the aggy paranoia. 

[Nueces River Rat 5539]

1 hour ago, TKthunder2 said:

UT’s 3rd tier rights will be folded into the SECN just like every other SEC team. There will not be a Longhorn branded network.

As to what ESPN will do with the channel, we do not know. Rumors have ranged from it will be converted to another SEC Network like ESPN2 for the Western teams, that it’ll be converted to a Big 12 network to house all the Big 12 3rd tier content currently relegated to ESPN+, or that it’ll be converted to an ESPNW channel to highlight women’s sports. It could also just shut down but that seems wasteful, considering all the work effort ESPN spent to get it up and running and into multiple provider carriage agreements.

Rumors also have ESPN keeping/maintaining the LHN studio in Austin simply because there is a ton of creative talent in this town that ESPN can still take advantage of. That being said, with the ever increasing cost of living in Austin, I wouldn’t be shocked if they shut it down.

Seems like the University would want to keep the studio, with or without ESPN being involved.   They would have to go back to producing coaching shows, etc.   It would be great if they could get Craig Way to replace Lowel for the Monday show they do now in the future.  

[Hurtlocker 2212]

3 hours ago, billfromlaketravis said:

I don’t think Apple TV + is the worst place for the PAC. They’re pumping crazy money into original content. And they badly overpaid for baseball. Why wouldn’t they overpay for college football games in their backyard?
 

All of the MLB games are in 4K. The baseball announcers suck, but the production value is top notch. 
 

It’s also very affordable at $5.99 a month. I’m not saying kids at South Oak Cliff will be signing up to watch Utah games, but it’s not the Antarctic Regional Network. 

The problem isn't it can't be accessed, its that it doesn't grow your brand.   If you look at the numbers even terrible teams on ESPN or the major networks get watched.  Big brands score big, but everyone scores big because those are the channels people tune in to just see any game.    The more they have to look, the less people show up.

[TKthunder2 4991]

45 minutes ago, Nueces River Rat said:

Seems like the University would want to keep the studio, with or without ESPN being involved.   They would have to go back to producing coaching shows, etc.   It would be great if they could get Craig Way to replace Lowel for the Monday show they do now in the future.  

The University has (or had I haven’t kept up in a few years) multiple studios around campus. We’re specifically talking about the LHN studio off I-35 between 32nd & 38th near St David’s. That’s rented space, not University owned so I don’t think UT would try to take that over…but I could be wrong.

[Hurtlocker 2212]

17 hours ago, bullet said:

They haven't talked publicly about participation money, which was minimal in the old deal, $6 million for the 1st and $4 million for the 2nd participant in each conference, but they have decided other payouts will be pro rata equal per conference, i.e. a 16 team conference gets 1.6 times what a 10 team conference gets, so that you don't get a benefit by being smaller as the Big 12 did and as the Big East did in BCS days.

Do you have a link to that?   I hadn't seen they'd hammered out any payout format yet, outside consulting crews like Navigate estimating various options.

Though even if it is per team, we're talking about a potential growth from $700m/year to $2b.  That is still enough to safely assume a doubling of current payouts, with plenty left over.  My point is that that newfound money could have the majority direct by the ACC/PAC to participating teams, without effecting current payouts, to bring up the yearly revenue closer to B1G/SEC competitiveness.

[Uncle Nate 2097]

 

 

[Uncle Nate 2097]

 

 

[Sandman 3403]

14 hours ago, TKthunder2 said:

or that it’ll be converted to an ESPNW channel to highlight women’s sports. It could also just shut down

These are essentially the same outcome. 

[Crockett 490]

 

[bullet 1597]

14 hours ago, billfromlaketravis said:

SEC Network West seems to be the most persistent rumor. So much so that office aggy is already firing up the tinfoil antennas. 
 

Not sure how helps the logistics of SECN, but I’m here for the aggy paranoia. 

Ran across this just now-doesn't say a lot, but CDC does say it goes away.

https://www.sportsbusinessjournal.com/Daily/Issues/2023/02/22/Media/longhorn-network-future-chris-del-conte.aspx

[TKthunder2 4991]

12 minutes ago, Uncle Nate said:

 

 

Put a few beers in the kid and he’d be a pretty good dancer.

[bullet 1597]

3 hours ago, Hurtlocker said:

Do you have a link to that?   I hadn't seen they'd hammered out any payout format yet, outside consulting crews like Navigate estimating various options.

Though even if it is per team, we're talking about a potential growth from $700m/year to $2b.  That is still enough to safely assume a doubling of current payouts, with plenty left over.  My point is that that newfound money could have the majority direct by the ACC/PAC to participating teams, without effecting current payouts, to bring up the yearly revenue closer to B1G/SEC competitiveness.

Can't readily find it.  But I saw it from a couple of different sources a month or two after they approved the expansion.  Basically they are using the current % split between P5/G5 for the next couple of years.  But the P5 will be split on an even share per school.  16/68 for B10 and SEC, 14/68 for ACC, 12/68 for B12 and 10/68 for P10 as the conferences will be constituted.  They didn't specify how much goes for participation, but the implication was that it wasn't going to change significantly.

Now--that was the deal for the next two years.  What they do after the current 12 year cycle is up is still up for negotation.

[TKthunder2 4991]

13 minutes ago, Sandman said:

These are essentially the same outcome. 

The whole #metoo movement. ESPN has already started making a point to include women’s sports in more prominent places like sports center and their scrolling ticker including highlighting “Breaking News”.

Converting the LHN to ESPNW would put it on a lower tier (where the LHN currently resides outside of Texas anyways) and would give ESPN something to hold up and show the world that they promote women’s sports just as much as men’s.

[hook me 2092]

38 minutes ago, Uncle Nate said:

 

 

So is Aragorn the B1G that comes in, saves the PAC 12 momentarily while killing the Big 12 expansion & then going & tracking down UO & UW w/ USC as Legolas & UCLA as Gimli? 

[bullet 1597]

https://www.cbssports.com/college-football/news/what-is-the-pac-12-actually-selling-ratings-without-usc-ucla-explain-leagues-struggle-to-land-rights-deal/

"Last year, ESPN executive Burke Magnus created a ripple in the industry when he suggested conferences should be focused on cultivating rivalries in college sports rather than worrying about market size.

"The amount of time we spend thinking about market size, it pales in comparison to the amount of time we think about rivalries," Magnus said on the Marchand and Ourand Sports Media Podcast. "In college sports, it's the rivalries. It's the traditions. It's the brands that really aggregate audience...."

 

The 2022 Oregon-Oregon State "Civil War" (3.56 million) was rated highest overall. This might be as close to a lasting rivalry as any in the new Pac-12, at least when it comes to sustaining national attention. The Ducks are clearly the Pac-12's ratings leader going forward. They appeared in three of the top four and seven of the top 10 highest-rated league games over the last two years. Oregon averaged the most viewers in the conference (No. 12 nationally) in 2022 and was the only Pac-12 team to see a rating of at least 4 million viewers (season opener vs. Georgia).

Stanford-Cal in 2021 featured teams that are 7-18 since that meeting. Oregon-Stanford in 2021 was the 20th-highest rated game of that week. Utah-Oregon in 2022 being ranked is significant as they are the Pac-12's two best programs moving forward. The 2022 Apple Cup was the 12th-highest rated game of Rivalry Week.

Ah, but how do those games compare against the competition? Well, they don't -- mostly. That might explain why the Pac-12 is having so much trouble finding worth for its media rights...."

[Laxtonto 12080]

43 minutes ago, bullet said:

https://www.cbssports.com/college-football/news/what-is-the-pac-12-actually-selling-ratings-without-usc-ucla-explain-leagues-struggle-to-land-rights-deal/

"Last year, ESPN executive Burke Magnus created a ripple in the industry when he suggested conferences should be focused on cultivating rivalries in college sports rather than worrying about market size.

"The amount of time we spend thinking about market size, it pales in comparison to the amount of time we think about rivalries," Magnus said on the Marchand and Ourand Sports Media Podcast. "In college sports, it's the rivalries. It's the traditions. It's the brands that really aggregate audience...."

 

The 2022 Oregon-Oregon State "Civil War" (3.56 million) was rated highest overall. This might be as close to a lasting rivalry as any in the new Pac-12, at least when it comes to sustaining national attention. The Ducks are clearly the Pac-12's ratings leader going forward. They appeared in three of the top four and seven of the top 10 highest-rated league games over the last two years. Oregon averaged the most viewers in the conference (No. 12 nationally) in 2022 and was the only Pac-12 team to see a rating of at least 4 million viewers (season opener vs. Georgia).

Stanford-Cal in 2021 featured teams that are 7-18 since that meeting. Oregon-Stanford in 2021 was the 20th-highest rated game of that week. Utah-Oregon in 2022 being ranked is significant as they are the Pac-12's two best programs moving forward. The 2022 Apple Cup was the 12th-highest rated game of Rivalry Week.

Ah, but how do those games compare against the competition? Well, they don't -- mostly. That might explain why the Pac-12 is having so much trouble finding worth for its media rights...."

For an article that is mostly regurgitation, it still spells a pretty bleak picture for the Pac12.

The more of these articles we see, the better this becomes for the potential implosion of the Pac12. This generates pressure via continued exposure to alumni that may just be the casual fan. The more people see this the more alumni start demanding their institutions to do something. These types of demands are what are going to make the BOR and presidents to finally tell the alumni that if this is what you want $$ to not get left behind by the big dogs of college sports than you have to be willing to accept realignment and leaving the Pac12 not backfilling to keep you academic superiority at the fore front.

 

If the cable and broadcast media is either out of cash or have provided their best offer, there is no way streaming saved the Pac12.
 

Now we are in the stage of is the dog dying, but who is willing to do the deed and put them out of their misery. Unfortunately the Pac12 is a long time well loved pet and everyone seems to be resistant to the idea, but in the end it has to be done. What will be curious to me is who is going to be willing to do it?

[Al_4_ISU 12463]

6 minutes ago, Laxtonto said:

For an article that is mostly regurgitation, it still spells a pretty bleak picture for the Pac12.

The more of these articles we see, the better this becomes for the potential implosion of the Pac12. This generates pressure via continued exposure to alumni that may just be the casual fan. The more people see this the more alumni start demanding their institutions to do something. These types of demands are what are going to make the BOR and presidents to finally tell the alumni that if this is what you want $$ to not get left behind by the big dogs of college sports than you have to be willing to accept realignment and leaving the Pac12 not backfilling to keep you academic superiority at the fore front.

 

If the cable and broadcast media is either out of cash or have provided their best offer, there is no way streaming saved the Pac12.
 

Now we are in the stage of is the dog dying, but who is willing to do the deed and put them out of their misery. Unfortunately the Pac12 is a long time well loved pet and everyone seems to be resistant to the idea, but in the end it has to be done. What will be curious to me is who is going to be willing to do it?

To some extent, the remaining schools have to be the ones to make that decision.  None of them can make the Big 10 come calling for UW and OU, and I really think the Big 10 doesn't want them.  If the Big 10 wanted those schools, this would be a done deal and the 4 corners would be in the Big 12 and all that jazz.

I think the issue is A) the Big 10 is waiting out the ACC GOR for their next move, B) UW and Oregon haven't accepted that, C) the 4 Corners are afraid to make a move without being forced by the Big 10/UW and Oregon.

I wouldn't be surprised if Yormark has essentially offered the 4 Corners already, through back channels.  I think the 4 Corners know that the Big 12 is their best option.  I don't think that Oregon and Washington have accepted that in all likelihood it's their best option, too.

['stache 21815]

Season 4 of Ted Lasso will have him return home to coach Stanford football, and Wilner will count those ratings in his next diatribe about how much more valuable they are than the XII.

Edited February 22, 2023 by 'stache

[Magus Ossis 2800]

39 minutes ago, Laxtonto said:

Now we are in the stage of is the dog dying, but who is willing to do the deed and put them out of their misery. Unfortunately the Pac12 is a long time well loved pet and everyone seems to be resistant to the idea, but in the end it has to be done. What will be curious to me is who is going to be willing to do it?

Well spoken, sir.

[Uncle Nate 2097]

44 minutes ago, Laxtonto said:

Now we are in the stage of is the dog dying, but who is willing to do the deed and put them out of their misery. Unfortunately the Pac12 is a long time well loved pet and everyone seems to be resistant to the idea, but in the end it has to be done. What will be curious to me is who is going to be willing to do it?

 

[PilotsError 2287]

If they end up on Amazon or Apple fucking TV, they're not a conference anymore.  Those aren't viable options.  They would cease to exist in any meaningful capacity.  It would be MySpace after Facebook.  

[Horn of Gabriel 1614]

17 hours ago, TKthunder2 said:

Rumors also have ESPN keeping/maintaining the LHN studio in Austin simply because there is a ton of creative talent in this town that ESPN can still take advantage of.