Realignment talk not going away

[BurntOrange&White 39,934]

13 hours ago, Al_4_ISU said:

Yeah, I don't think anyone's of the belief that either of those things can really slack in the future.

My only point, and the Pokes' only point, is that this is normal life for us non-blue bloods.  Whether you guys had stuck around or not, these are things that our survival depends on.  Always has been.  Always will.

A big part of the reason the "have not" schools are have nots, outside of the obvious demographic ones, are that their administrations did not place a high priority on sports or football specifically prior to the Big 12 era.  Iowa State's a great example.  We didn't put dick into football until 1996 or so.  It's a big reason the Pac 12 is struggling to find a TV partner currently.  They just don't give a fuck.

The schools that continue to give a legitimate fuck by investing what they have in facilities, staff, and players will have their opportunities.  It's just that some of us will always be at a competitive disadvantage, and we're fine with that because that's all we know as fans.

Genuine question but how or what is Iowa State doing to better their program with regards to facilities, amenities for athletes, stadium renovation, etc? I recently saw Oklahoma State is doing a uplift in their facilities.

Edited March 2, 2023 by BurntOrange&White

[Al_4_ISU 12,464]

1 minute ago, BurntOrange&White said:

Genuine question but how or what is Iowa State doing to better their program with regards to facilities, amenities for athletes, stadium renovation, etc? I recently saw Oklahoma State is doing a uplift in their facilities.

Iowa State's been upgrading their facilities on a pretty steady basis since the mid 90's.  We just opened a new expansion and renovation to the football complex NW of Jack Trice last year.  We added new practice fields east of Jack Trice.  Hilton's been getting a steady stream of updates from year to year.  There's a massive dedicated basketball facility in west Ames for close to a decade.  The olympic sports have been given access to a bunch of recently renovated on-campus facilities that used to be shared with football and basketball when I was in school ('03-'07).  We built new stadiums for softball and soccer at the south end of the campus.

In the mid 90's, things were as bare bones as possible.  We made some mild upgrades, but by the mid 00's we were still quite a ways behind.  Jamie Pollard took over as AD in 2005 and it's been pedal to the metal since in terms of upgrades.

Jack Trice 2005:

Jack Trice 2022:

Practice facilities:

It's an addition to this building, which went up when I was in school:

 

Prior to 2005, ISU had to practice for bowl games on a strip of turf in the regular student gym.

[utee94 15,825]

1 hour ago, Al_4_ISU said:

Iowa State's been upgrading their facilities on a pretty steady basis since the mid 90's.  We just opened a new expansion and renovation to the football complex NW of Jack Trice last year.  We added new practice fields east of Jack Trice.  Hilton's been getting a steady stream of updates from year to year.  There's a massive dedicated basketball facility in west Ames for close to a decade.  The olympic sports have been given access to a bunch of recently renovated on-campus facilities that used to be shared with football and basketball when I was in school ('03-'07).  We built new stadiums for softball and soccer at the south end of the campus.

In the mid 90's, things were as bare bones as possible.  We made some mild upgrades, but by the mid 00's we were still quite a ways behind.  Jamie Pollard took over as AD in 2005 and it's been pedal to the metal since in terms of upgrades.

Jack Trice 2005:

Jack Trice 2022:

Practice facilities:

It's an addition to this building, which went up when I was in school:

 

Prior to 2005, ISU had to practice for bowl games on a strip of turf in the regular student gym.

Needs more pics of fierce blondo cheerleaders and naughty redheads in the stands.

 

 

[Hurtlocker 2,212]

12 minutes ago, utee94 said:

Needs more pics of fierce blondo cheerleaders and naughty redheads in the stands.

 

 

no matter the thread, i got ya

[utee94 15,825]

Just now, Hurtlocker said:

no matter the thread, i got ya

Thank you kind sir.  I will always like ISU, for these contributions to the internet if nothing else.

[Al_4_ISU 12,464]

We also gave the internet this gif

The longer you look at it, the more you find going on.

[CustersDoctor 584]

20 hours ago, Hurtlocker said:

PAC mouthpiece, behind wall.

Pac-12 media rights: Our (final) predictions for the revenue, media partners, expansion decisions and more

  Reveal hidden contents

By JON WILNER | jwilner@bayareanewsgroup.com | Bay Area News Group

PUBLISHED: March 1, 2023 at 10:23 a.m. | UPDATED: March 1, 2023 at 11:18 a.m.

 

It has been 244 days since USC and UCLA announced their plans to enter the Big Ten and almost as many since the Pac-12 began the process of renegotiating its media rights.

The conference spent 90 days in an exclusive window with ESPN and Fox, then took its content to the market and now, finally, is nearing the end of the saga.

On the first day of March, we are reasonably confident that resolution — in some form or fashion — will come by the first day of April.

Here are the Hotline’s predictions for the key pieces of the process …

*** Survival odds

For several months, we viewed Pac-12 survival as a 5.5-point favorite over Pac-12 extinction, which equated to a probability of about 67 percent. The conference had a two-in-three chance to successfully navigate this existential crisis.

But as the Hotline detailed a few weeks ago, time and risk move in lockstep in the realignment game.

Risk that unknown or hibernating factors can rise up to derail expectations.

Risk that institutional priorities could change or economic pressures could appear.

Risk that anxiety could lead to panic.

Risk that forces of instability could prevail.

Commissioner George Kliavkoff’s decision to take the negotiations across the holidays and into a second calendar year — “No need for a rush,” he said in December — has created an additional level of uncertainty.

As a result, our Pac-12 survival odds have changed for the first time in months, ticking down to five points.

And they will continue to decrease by a half-point every week that comes and goes without a deal.

If the end of March arrives and the same state of uncertainty still exists, then survival will be favored over extinction by merely a field goal.

*** The media valuation

We project the Pac-12’s valuation to fall within 10 percent of the Big 12’s agreement with ESPN and Fox, which will pay each school an average of $31.7 million annually starting in 2024-25.

That places the Pac-12’s range as $28.5 million (per school) annually on the low end and $34.9 million annually on the high end.

Our target number is $29.7 million.

How did we arrive at that figure? The Hotline always disagreed with the notion that the Big 12 and Pac-12 would get clobbered by the departures of Texas, Oklahoma, USC and UCLA — that their next media deals would pay less than their current deals.

That view ignored the massive increase in the value of live sports that has unfolded since the current deals were signed early in the 2010s.

In October, we set a valuation range of $38 million to $42 million per school for the reconfigured Big 12 and $35 million to $40 million per school for the Pac-12. The former had a slight advantage because of its tremendous basketball product.

Then the Big 12 renewed its agreement with ESPN and Fox instead of taking its rights to the market — a smart play by commissioner Brett Yormark because of the security it provided with the conference’s longtime network partners.

It also reset (i.e., lowered) the market for the Pac-12.

The midpoints of our October estimates were $37.5 million for the Pac-12 and $40 million for the Big 12. Put another way, we valued the former at 94 percent of the latter.

If we apply that comparative value using the Big 12’s actual average annual value ($31.7 million per school), we arrive at $29.7 million per school for the Pac-12.

And look what we have here: The Pac-12’s current deal with Fox and ESPN averages $20.8 million per school while the Big 12’s current agreement averages $22 million — the former is about 94 percent of the latter.

Yes, the Big 12 has replaced Texas and Oklahoma, while the Pac-12 hasn’t (yet) filled the hole left by the Los Angeles schools.

But don’t forget, the Longhorns and Sooners accounted for a greater percentage of the Big 12’s valuation than USC and UCLA did for the Pac-12.

And as we have stated throughout the process, any difference in valuation between the Big 12 and Pac-12 would be on the margins compared to the difference between those leagues and the SEC and Big Ten.

*** The media partners

Our best advice with regard to every aspect of the Pac-12 media rights negotiations is the following: Only an extremely tight circle of people know the details.

The Hotline has been tracking the situation closely for eight months, and we can merely take an educated guess at the outcome.

Piecing together the crumbs, we believe ESPN, Apple and Amazon are keenly interested in the content, with the possible existence of a fourth entity. An X factor, essentially.

We also believe the Pac-12’s ability to fill the 7:30 p.m. Pacific window is a valuable asset. And not just on Saturday night.

In theory, the conference could fill that window every Friday and Saturday night for 13 weeks — that’s 26 games (90 hours of programming) unopposed by competition from the NFL or other Power Five leagues.

Amazon makes the most sense for the Friday game, because it could promote the broadcast during ‘Thursday Night Football,’ while ESPN makes the most sense for the Saturday night game.

We should also point out that it’s difficult for fans in other regions to grasp how entrenched Apple and Amazon are in the culture and economics of the West Coast.

Washington president Ana Mari Cauce is the chair of the Pac-12’s Board of Directors. Her office is 3.5 miles from Amazon’s headquarters.

Stanford president Marc Tessiere-Lavigne is on the board’s agenda-driving executive committee (along with Cauce and WSU’s Kirk Schulz). His office is 14 miles from Apple’s headquarters in Cupertino.

Our sense is the presidents don’t look at the streaming giants with the wariness that might exist in other conferences. They would view partnerships as enhancing deeper connections than mere broadcast agreements.

That said, the conference needs its best football games on linear platforms (either broadcast or cable networks) in order to maximize reach to mainstream fans.

As a result, the Hotline expects a media deal with ESPN and either Apple or Amazon, and we wouldn’t rule out the possibility for both companies to be involved.

All options must be considered until we have evidence to the contrary.

The key for Kliavkoff, however, is striking a balance between the linear and streaming platforms. Admittedly, we don’t know where the presidents will draw the line, but within that broad calculation are the number of night games and the timing of the selection process.

Nothing has created more frustration across the conference footprint than the six-day selection windows — ESPN and Fox have two each (per season) — that make planning for games extremely difficult.

*** The Pac-12 Networks

As a media company with distribution deals and content available on linear platforms, the Pac-12 Networks probably will cease to exist in the summer of 2024 when its current contracts expire.

But the technology and infrastructure likely will live on.

The conference has leased 42,000 square feet of office space in the East Bay. The facility will serve as a production studio for massive amounts of video content, including Olympic sports events, that could be streamed directly to consumers or made available to a media partner.

The studio and cutting-edge technology also could be used by Apple or Amazon to produce live sports events involving the Pac-12 (or other leagues).

We expect Pac-12 football and men’s basketball games to be included in the rights agreement with one of the major media companies.

Sometime next November, the conference’s wholly-owned media company will broadcast its final football game.

*** The expansion calculation

Multiple sources believe the Pac-12 is considering three options for membership structure: add four schools, add two schools or don’t add any schools.

The final decision depends on the media deal and the relationship between inventory and valuation — whether the ability to play more games (e.g., a weekly Friday night kickoff) will increase revenue for the existing members.

Our view of the outcomes:

— Two schools: 50 percent– Zero schools: 45 percent– Four schools 5 percent

SMU and San Diego State seemingly sit atop the candidate list but are not the only universities Kliavkoff has evaluated for membership. (We have been unable to confirm the others.)

The calculation for expansion is comparable to the decision on streaming: The Pac-12 must assess the long-haul benefits of both.

Would a partnership with Apple or Amazon become exponentially more beneficial by the end of the decade than it appears now?

Would the SMU and SDSU football brands be markedly stronger after five or six years in the Pac-12 than they are today?

Because ultimately, the decisions made this month are about strategic position for the next six or eight years.

 

My message to Wilner

 

['stache 21,817]

When Gundy retires we'll be part of the coaching lottery like everyone else hoping to find the next up and comer or an alum who has had success and would be loyal. We're in a lot better place than in 2005 because of the facilities, crowd sizes, and commitment from the school and athletic department. When we hired Gundy it was a bit of a reach and out of loyalty. Les Miles before him was pure luck, he was a tight end coach for the Dallas Cowboys who was an assistant in Stillwater a few years earlier. Without those two Bedlam wins who knows if Boone would have turned his attention back to the program to fund the stadium. The coaching lottery scares me because we've struck out in Basketball with guys who haven't succeeded or were pieces of shit like Brad Underwood. I love Mike Boynton but the results just aren't there, we're gonna need to move on pretty quick I think.

[bullet 1,597]

3 hours ago, utee94 said:

Thank you kind sir.  I will always like ISU, for these contributions to the internet if nothing else.

That blonde would be a lot more enjoyable if the score wasn't posted beside her.

[Uncle Nate 2,097]

Just now, bullet said:

That blonde would be a lot more enjoyable if the score wasn't posted beside her.

Score?  What score?

You are focusing on the wrong thing.

[oSuJeff97 3,435]

Yeah you don’t have to argue with me about the value that Gundy has brought to the program. I have this argument every single time dipshit OSU fans want him fired.

But the football program, and the entire athletics department for that matter, are in a COMPLETELY different place than when Gundy took over.

The odds are that the next coach will not have the same success that Gundy did because he’s an incredible coach who set the bar very high, but it’s a bit disingenuous to look back on our shitty history and be like, “well Gundy was the only coach with sustained success.”  A big part of that was that OSU didn’t do shit about investing in football UNTIL Gundy took over.  If Gundy were 10 years older and became our head coach in 1995 instead of 2005 would he have the same success that he’s had? Fuck no. He probably would have been fired in the early 2000s after firing out three or four 4-7s in a row.

So while the next coach will likely not replicate his success, they will be in a FAR better position to do so than any other coach in OSU football history.

[Al_4_ISU 12,464]

10 minutes ago, oSuJeff97 said:

Yeah you don’t have to argue with me about the value that Gundy has brought to the program. I have this argument every single time dipshit OSU fans want him fired.

But the football program, and the entire athletics department for that matter, are in a COMPLETELY different place than when Gundy took over.

The odds are that the next coach will not have the same success that Gundy did because he’s an incredible coach who set the bar very high, but it’s a bit disingenuous to look back on our shitty history and be like, “well Gundy was the only coach with sustained success.”  A big part of that was that OSU didn’t do shit about investing in football UNTIL Gundy took over.  If Gundy were 10 years older and became our head coach in 1995 instead of 2005 would he have the same success that he’s had? Fuck no. He probably would have been fired in the early 2000s after firing out three or four 4-7s in a row.

So while the next coach will likely not replicate his success, they will be in a FAR better position to do so than any other coach in OSU football history.

I think a really good example here is Kleiman at KSU.  KSU was a toilet before Snyder, and they made a bad hire w/Ron Prince in 2006.  Snyder comes back to save the day, they upgrade facilities (for the second time in 20 years), and when he walks away they replace him with a guy that even if he burns out from here, delivered a conference title.

Much like their neighbors up Highway 77, OK State will be in a much better position to hire Gundy's successor than they were when they hired Gundy.

Edited March 2, 2023 by Al_4_ISU

[TrashMaster G 17,558]

6 hours ago, Al_4_ISU said:

Prior to 2005, ISU had to practice for bowl games on a strip of turf in the regular student gym.

The good news is that it was very rarely an issue.

[Al_4_ISU 12,464]

6 minutes ago, TrashMaster G said:

The good news is that it was very rarely an issue.

I think it was used 4 times.

One of the reasons we never had a prior indoor practice facility was because for a 20 year period they never played a game after Thanksgiving.

Edited March 2, 2023 by Al_4_ISU

[Frank Drebin 5,640]

Being used as a farm system for the middling 3 star that you turn into a freshman All American as a redshirt or All Conference caliber player as a sophomore is the main hurdle I see for most of the Big 12 teams.

[Al_4_ISU 12,464]

39 minutes ago, Frank Drebin said:

Being used as a farm system for the middling 3 star that you turn into a freshman All American as a redshirt or All Conference caliber player as a sophomore is the main hurdle I see for most of the Big 12 teams.

If that happens, it will be mitigated by poaching either the G5/FCS studs, or finding the talented guys buried on SEC benches that want to play ball.

Or at least that's what they should try to do.

Edited March 2, 2023 by Al_4_ISU

[Hurtlocker 2,212]

Former Oregon head coach and athletic director Mike Bellotti says he believes the league could collapse with the pending departure of USC and UCLA to the Big Ten ahead of the 2024 football season.

"I have that impending sense of doom," he told CBS Sports.

"All my life, I've always been a West Coast guy... I can just see [the Pac-12] falling apart."

Bellotti added that the Pac-12 is "teetering on the brink."

[bullet 1,597]

Pretty interesting interview with Fox exec.  Particularly interesting discussion of viewership habits.  Talks about why cable/pay TV works much better than streaming for the casual fan (ie most fans).  Talks a lot about the long term media environment.

[BachelorTrek 2,982]

57 minutes ago, Hurtlocker said:

Former Oregon head coach and athletic director Mike Bellotti says he believes the league could collapse with the pending departure of USC and UCLA to the Big Ten ahead of the 2024 football season.

"I have that impending sense of doom," he told CBS Sports.

"All my life, I've always been a West Coast guy... I can just see [the Pac-12] falling apart."

Bellotti added that the Pac-12 is "teetering on the brink."

https://www.cbssports.com/college-football/news/former-pac-12-coaches-concerned-about-leagues-future-amid-ongoing-issues-theyre-teetering-on-the-brink/

[Uncle Nate 2,097]

So perfect:

 

 

[billfromlaketravis 11,487]

Yikes those Bellotti comments are pretty damning. I’m patiently waiting for the other shoe to drop. Amazon walking away, and ESPN scooping up what’s left on an ACC deal. 

[BachelorTrek 2,982]

1 minute ago, billfromlaketravis said:

Yikes those Bellotti comments are pretty damning. I’m patiently waiting for the other shoe to drop. Amazon walking away, and ESPN scooping up what’s left on an ACC deal. 

Sounds like PAC-12 FIRE SALE incoming!

Get your PAC-12 football schools for CHEAP, because EVERY MONTH IS TRUCK MONTH!   Lulz.

[Guest]

On 3/1/2023 at 3:24 PM, cochamps said:

Missed that.  I remembered the 2014 tie / Ohio State drama.  If I wanted to be picky< I'd say both schools have 2 1/2.

Username.   Lmao

 

[oSuJeff97 3,435]

3 hours ago, Al_4_ISU said:

If that happens, it will be mitigated by poaching either the G5/FCS studs, or finding the talented guys buried on SEC benches that want to play ball.

Or at least that's what they should try to do.

This is exactly what has, and will continue, to happen.

People who get all worked up about NIL and the Transfer portal still have to deal with the fact that there are finite roster spots and (more importantly) finite starting positions at blue bloods. It’s not like Alabama can have a roster of 200 5-star guys.

I think the player mobility via the transfer portal actually helps spread out the talent more. Yeah sure some blue bloods will poach low-star guys who become studs, but there are also tons of 4- and 5-star guys on the bench who will want to play and will get their chance at a “lower tier” school.

[General Specific 3,262]

Gundy got nothin' on Pappy, besides less tie games. 

To Ole Pappy!

Wait, we’re not toasting to/with Ole Pappy? But it’s Thursday night. Damnit…

[Frank Drebin 5,640]

5 hours ago, oSuJeff97 said:

This is exactly what has, and will continue, to happen.

People who get all worked up about NIL and the Transfer portal still have to deal with the fact that there are finite roster spots and (more importantly) finite starting positions at blue bloods. It’s not like Alabama can have a roster of 200 5-star guys.

I think the player mobility via the transfer portal actually helps spread out the talent more. Yeah sure some blue bloods will poach low-star guys who become studs, but there are also tons of 4- and 5-star guys on the bench who will want to play and will get their chance at a “lower tier” school.

I feel like most of the 4 and 5 star guys on the bench are busts who aren't worth a shit.  TCU just grabbed several from Bama.  I would not rely on that much.  I can't see many talented players on two deeps transferring for PT these days with all the rotations (outside of QB).  Sure, you can get a Tommy Brockemeyer, who was third or fourth string and has name recognition.  Do you really want him?  The former top recruits who are worth a shit aren't going to transfer down.

 

[camel at sea 589]

On 3/1/2023 at 12:55 PM, NoName said:

people truly don't understand how good Gundy has been there. Easily the best coach in program history. 

in their history, OK State has played in 30 total bowl games. Gundy has been the coach for 17 of them. Gundy has won half of the bowl games they have won as a program (11 of 21.) Longest tenured coach in program history and he has the best winning % outside of a guy who left the last time A&M won a national championship.

when he left OSU he was the all time leading passer at OSU, he has been coaching for 33 years and has spent 28 of them at OSU.

...and they still have people wanting to run him off.

 

Gundy has been great and he's probably going to end up in the college football hall of fame.  He is Oklahoma State's version of the Purple Wizard.  He's also had more to work with during his time on that job - by a WIDE margin - than any other coach in Oklahoma State history.  Every coach prior to Gundy had to operate with some of the worst facilities in the country, and Gundy has had nationally elite facilities for most of his tenure.  The difference is so big, it's hard to compare Gundy's tenure to anyone who came before him.  It might be that with the facilities in place, the geography, and the competition, that Oklahoma State *should* be winning 9 games a year on average.   

I wouldn't be shocked if the guy they eventually hire to replace Gundy recruits circles around Gundy and elevates their roster talent quite a bit.    

[TKthunder2 4,992]

9 hours ago, bullet said:

Pretty interesting interview with Fox exec.  Particularly interesting discussion of viewership habits.  Talks about why cable/pay TV works much better than streaming for the casual fan (ie most fans).  Talks a lot about the long term media environment.

I agree, the soccer super league will happen, a breakaway elite college football league will happen.

Listening to Baylor fans cry about the loss of regional cfb when they left the very regional SWC is gold. Most people would not care if Purdue, Mississippi State, Northwestern, or Vanderbilt got left out they care that their “region” is represented which means you just can’t also cut out Indiana/Notre Dame, Ole Miss, Illinois, and Tennessee (which is why you could see some wonky things like how Syracuse, Boston College, UConn, West Virginia, and Kansas could make it in while other more athletically deserving Big 12 schools don’t).

I agree with all his points except basketball. We have DI, DII, DIII, NAIA, and JUCO leagues separated out for a reason. Basketball will split at some point too as we don’t need 400 teams in DI. Even if you just took the FBS conferences, you could kick that number down to 130 plus the top 5 nonFB conferences Big East/A10/WCC and go back to a 64 team bracket.

If the elite college football league can run its own basketball tournament and make more money it will (I think the obvious answer here is yes). The only question is do you include anyone else, and if so how many and who.

[oSuJeff97 3,435]

11 hours ago, Frank Drebin said:

I feel like most of the 4 and 5 star guys on the bench are busts who aren't worth a shit.  TCU just grabbed several from Bama.  I would not rely on that much.  I can't see many talented players on two deeps transferring for PT these days with all the rotations (outside of QB).  Sure, you can get a Tommy Brockemeyer, who was third or fourth string and has name recognition.  Do you really want him?  The former top recruits who are worth a shit aren't going to transfer down.

 

It wasn't so much about being "busts" as the fact that there are finite starting positions. I get the idea of 4- or 5-star guys being "busts" if they go to places where they are supposed to be the most talented and they don't pan out... like when OSU snags the random 4-star guy every once in a while... but if you're a 4- or 5-star guy at, say, Alabama, and you aren't starting because there's some other 5-star future NFL star in front of you, are you really a "bust" or is there just someone way better in front of you?

Someone like that may be better off transferring to a next-tier down program that's still good but maybe not a blood so they can play instead of being stuck behind some future NFL all-pro.

But your overall point actually sort of supports what I'm saying.

So far, it seems (with a few exceptions) the portal has largely been about QBs moving around so they can play and then just a smattering of other transfers based on who-knows-what reasons.  We haven't seen wide-spread issues with blue bloods poaching players developed at other programs. The exception is probably Lincoln Riley at USC, who has had no problem doing that.

[Gidnik 3,276]

https://247sports.com/college/arizona/Article/arizona-meeting-big-12-this-week-189624231/
 

Anyone able to post the story?

[bullet 1,597]

12 hours ago, Frank Drebin said:

I feel like most of the 4 and 5 star guys on the bench are busts who aren't worth a shit.  TCU just grabbed several from Bama.  I would not rely on that much.  I can't see many talented players on two deeps transferring for PT these days with all the rotations (outside of QB).  Sure, you can get a Tommy Brockemeyer, who was third or fourth string and has name recognition.  Do you really want him?  The former top recruits who are worth a shit aren't going to transfer down.

 

Kind of like Joe Burrow?

[bullet 1,597]

13 minutes ago, Gidnik said:

https://247sports.com/college/arizona/Article/arizona-meeting-big-12-this-week-189624231/
 

Anyone able to post the story?

The date on that is August 4th.  He might just be tweeting about what he said 6 months ago.

[Frank Drebin 5,640]

16 minutes ago, bullet said:

Kind of like Joe Burrow?

You don't read so good.

[Jabberwocky 1,666]

 

[Jabberwocky 1,666]

Another article from someone at CBS Sports.

[Jabberwocky 1,666]

Comments from Mandel on his article.

 

[Hurtlocker 2,212]

21 minutes ago, Jabberwocky said:

Comments from Mandel on his article.

 

Spoiler

Big 12 looking west, Pac-12 looking for a TV deal: What we’re hearing on realignment

By Max Olson and Stewart Mandel

4h ago

Last July, weeks after USC and UCLA’s stunning Big Ten announcement, Pac-12 commissioner George Kliavkoff made a bold realignment prediction: “No Pac-12 school is going to the Big 12.”

Eight months later, we may finally learn whether his confidence was justified or false bravado.

Kliavkoff is facing pressure to deliver a new media rights deal to his members by the end of the month. If the dollar figures or the details are underwhelming, March may be the moment when the Big 12 finally strikes. Sources briefed on the discussions say the conference has been in recent contact with the so-called Four Corners schools — Arizona, Arizona State, Colorado and Utah — which has renewed optimism that convincing them to join is possible.

Brett Yormark has eyed westward expansion since the day he was hired as the Big 12’s new commissioner last summer. Yormark has never been shy about his interest in expanding the Big 12 into the “fourth time zone” to establish a truly national conference and boost the value of his league’s media rights. The arrival of BYU this summer will get the Big 12 into the Mountain Time Zone. Yormark wants more, though he has always said any additions need to be additive and not dilutive.

“I don’t think any of us are trying to dismantle the Pac-12,” Baylor athletic director Mack Rhoades told SicEm365 on Tuesday. “If there’s opportunity, and whenever their TV media deal comes to fruition and if those institutions decide that it’s not good for them, then the Big 12 will be ready. And that probably is as simple as I can say it.”

Yormark is also deep in discussions with Gonzaga, but sources involved in the process indicated he wants clarity on the Pac-12’s situation before making that move.

Since these expansion courtships began last summer, Yormark has been confident he can convince his targets that the future is brighter in the Big 12. He ramped up the pressure by jumping the Pac-12 in line and reaching an early extension with ESPN and Fox in October that will make his members more money than they do now with Oklahoma or Texas. That agreement will bring in a reported $31.7 million annually for each Big 12 member, setting a measuring stick for the Pac-12’s deal.

As The Athletic reported last month, Kliavkoff has been met with lukewarm interest in the marketplace. ESPN, Amazon and Apple are the only known suitors, and any deal will likely put the majority of the league’s events on an over-the-top streaming service. The Athletic’s Richard Deitsch reported there’s interest from Amazon in a weekly Friday night Pac-12 game but that the two sides were “far apart” in February. And the Pac-12’s timing couldn’t be worse. Just since last summer, networks have committed billions in future rights fees to the Big Ten and Big 12, and Disney’s cost-cutting CEO Bob Iger said in February that “we’re simply going to have to get more selective” in sports bidding.

Still, the sports consulting firm Navigate’s modeling projects the Pac-12’s average annual value at $31 million per school, barely less than the Big 12’s new deal. Although the Big 12 has larger fan bases, Pac-12 games on ABC, Fox, NBC and CBS averaged 20 percent higher ratings than comparable Big 12 games (excluding both leagues’ departing members) from 2014 to 2021, according to data provided to The Athletic.

Multiple people familiar with the Pac-12’s board members expressed doubt that their schools would switch conferences unless it’s for a substantially better deal. School presidents, not ADs, authorize realignment decisions, and the Pac-12’s prioritize academic and cultural fits more than most. Washington State president Kirk Schultz and Oregon State president Jayathi Murthy have both attempted to defuse the various rumors in recent interviews.

“There’s lots of reasons for us to hold together. The different members of the Pac-12 understand it,” Murthy told John Canzano. “All this talk about people running off and joining the Big Ten and Big 12 or whatever is just talk.”

Motivating those presidents to expand the Pac-12 has also been a challenge. They have not yet reached a consensus about inviting San Diego State, SMU or other expansion candidates, sources briefed on the discussions said. Two summers ago, in the wake of the SEC adding Oklahoma and Texas, the Pac-12 board had a chance to welcome any number of current Big 12 schools — and passed on all of them.

But circumstances have changed. Those sources believe if Yormark can convince the leadership at two Pac-12 schools to join the Big 12, that might be all it takes to land all four and pull the conference apart.

Yormark would need to get Fox to be an equal share partner in expansion. CBS Sports previously reported that the Big 12’s new rights contract includes an agreement with ESPN on a pro rata clause but that Fox has not committed to one. ESPN got 63 percent of the new TV deal with the Big 12, sources briefed on the agreement confirmed. Fox would have to sign off on the Big 12 adding Pac-12 schools as full-share members.

Yormark strongly believes basketball is undervalued in these TV rights talks. He has dropped hints about an interest in unbundling it from football and selling those rights separately when the Big 12 next hits the market in 2030-31. That’s one motivation behind the Big 12’s continued talks with hoops powerhouse Gonzaga. Joining as a non-football member would mean a smaller revenue share for the Bulldogs, but they’d be an inarguably valuable addition. Arizona, a top-10 program with more Pac-12 titles than every school but Big Ten-bound UCLA, would similarly boost the best conference in men’s college basketball and its long-term ambitions.

“I think we have an opportunity to monetize basketball in a way that hasn’t been done before,” Yormark said in an appearance on the Wilner & Canzano podcast last month. “It’s certainly something I’m thinking about. So if the opportunity ever exists where, within the construct of what makes sense for expansion, as part of that, we could double down on basketball and further cement our leadership position, it’s certainly something that I’m willing to consider.”

On the Pac-12 side, a critical moment in this process could come next week, at the conference’s men’s and women’s basketball tournaments in Las Vegas. The ADs in attendance are going to want clarity and hard numbers. Kliavkoff took these rights to the open market in October. Nearly five months have passed. On Feb. 13, Pac-12 presidents released a joint statement emphasizing their unity and vowing a deal would be consummated “in the very near future.”

There’s no official deadline, but each day this negotiation process drags on cranks up anxiety and, perhaps, vulnerability. As the adage goes in the sales world: Time kills all deals. What ultimately matters is the deal Kliavkoff can deliver for his members in the weeks ahead. If it’s inadequate, Yormark and the Big 12 are poised to pounce. 

TLDR:

• He's still quoting audience numbers from 2014-20, ignoring that the B12 got their current deal because the games outside TX/OU have seen a 50% increase in viewership the last few years.
• First time I've seen it listed that Yormark believes basketball is undervalued and wants to unbundle and sell it separate in the next deal.
• Pac getting jumpy.   Jumpy is never good.
• This came from a Pac mouthpiece, also not a good sign for the Pac.

[Uncle Nate 2,097]

29 minutes ago, Jabberwocky said:

Comments from Mandel on his article.

 

 

So in other words, nothing has changed.  

[Hurtlocker 2,212]

Big 12 in contact with Arizona, Arizona State, Colorado, Utah as Pac-12 media rights future remains uncertain

The "Four Corners" schools may be looking elsewhere with the Pac-12 in the midst of contentious media rights negotiation

Quote

The Big 12 recently renewed contact with four Pac-12 schools -- Arizona, Arizona State, Colorado and Utah -- as television contract negotiations for the Pac-12 continue to flounder, sources confirm to CBS Sports' Dennis Dodd. March will be a pivotal time for the Pac-12 to either deliver a new contract or risk losing key members of its league. 

After previously speaking as realignment kicked into gear but going radio silent for an extended period of time, sources say all four schools have more recently had contact with the Big 12, sources tell Dodd. The interest of the "Four Corners" schools leaving for the Big 12 has picked up in recent weeks as Pac-12 media rights negotiations have stalled, moving into a ninth month.

Interest in the Pac-12's media rights are underwhelming, and the league remains the only Power Five conference without a long-term television contract. Most major networks have pulled out, leaving ESPN as the only major linear provider still involved in bidding. Amazon and Apple TV+ have long been considered potential streaming partners, but their level of interest and willingness to spend for a large pack of games is unclear.

The Big Ten (CBS, Fox, NBC) and SEC (ABC/ESPN) agreed to massive contracts securing their rights into the 2030s. The ACC is locked into an exclusive contract with ESPN through 2036. While the Pac-12 entered the market first, the Big 12 got its rightsholders (ESPN, Fox) to negotiate a new deal early, allowing the Big 12 to jump the Pac-12 and come to an agreement that solidifies their media rights through 2031.

Suddenly, the Pac-12 is faced with networks and potential streaming partners that have already outlaid significant capital acquiring sports rights and may not have the appetite for a reduced league without USC and UCLA.

Big 12 commissioner Brett Yormark has made no secret that he is interested in westward expansion, and moving into the Pacific Time Zone has created conflict between him and Pac-12 counterpart Kliavkoff. The conflict came to a head at Pac-12 Media Day in Los Angeles when Kliavkoff railed against Yormark and the Big 12.

"I've been spending four weeks trying to defend against grenades that have been lobbied in from every corner of the Big 12 trying to destabilize our remaining conference," Kliavkoff said at the time. "I understand why they're doing it. When you look at the relative media value between the two conferences, I get it. I get why they're scared, why they're trying to destabilize us." 

This all comes less than one year after USC and UCLA announced plans to leave the Pac-12 for the Big Ten, putting the Pac-12 in a perilous position. The two schools are projected to make at least $30 million more annually by joining the Big Ten.

For the "Four Corners" schools to consider leaving the Pac-12, it would likely take either true uncertainty over the Pac-12's media rights or a significant revenue gap between the deal reached by the league and the one that currently exists for the Big 12.

 

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Does Florida State or any ACC power actually have options? Revenue gap concerns threaten to split league

Top ACC teams have legitimate concerns about competing with the SEC and Big Ten

Quote

Michael Alford had just gotten off a call with ACC commissioner Jim Phillips. The obvious and immediate question this week was whether the Florida State athletic director had been taken to task. Alford had done all but pound his fist on the table recently demanding more media rights revenue for his school. That or ... what, exactly?

"We have to do something because we're a brand. We're a very important brand, and we drive the media value in this conference," Alford told the FSU board of trustees in a Friday meeting streamed on YouTube.

So, the call was not about that -- last Friday's airing of the grievances by Alford in front of his board. But it soon may be. Friday's presentation was part performance art, part threat to leave the conference.

Boosters, fans, commissioners and the public needed to know from the Florida State perspective that it drives the ACC revenue bus. It isn't the only athletic department that will sit $30 million in revenue behind the SEC and the Big Ten (beginning in 2024), but as of now, it certainly is the loudest.

By the end of Friday's session, the world was aware Florida State feels both underpaid and overwrought. Seldom in the history of these sorts of things do ADs tell employers how bad things are getting. The fact that FSU signed a binding contract that guaranteed it both media rights income and a network until 2036 wasn't good enough.

Back to that call with the commissioner.

"We've known each other 20-something years," Alford said of Phillips. "We've been friends a long time. Jim understands the conference is working to find solutions. There's not a better person doing it than Jim. I think he's the best in the business."

It seems as if business is about to be redefined in the ACC. There is that much consternation in the league.

And Florida State isn't alone. FSU, Clemson, Miami and North Carolina are just … different as national brands (for different reasons) with huge followings.

Combine that with the SEC and Big Ten being in the process of running away with most of the money, power, exposure and -- if the narrative follows -- championships.

Now, the really hard part for the ACC: doing something about it.

On the surface, FSU has no leverage. Below the surface, FSU has no leverage. You don't just tear up and redo a 10-figure contract with 13 years remaining until its expiry.

In May 2012, the 14 ACC members signed a 15-year media rights deal in good faith with ESPN. (Notre Dame joined in all sports but football in September 2014.) In 2016, that contract was extended to 2036. Basically, in exchange for the league getting its own network -- another revenue source -- ESPN got term (20 years) and cost certainty. Like the rest of the Power Five conferences, the revenue was split evenly between all ACC teams.

"That's something that needs to be addressed," Alford told CBS Sports. "Not just us and not just a couple of other brands. We think we bring a high value to the schools. We want to work with them."

In essence, Florida State is publicly stating the desperation faced by schools not in the SEC or Big Ten. And FSU (at least thinks) it has options.

"If we're driving the network, we should have more," Alford said. "We drive the appearances and the revenue. Our second biggest alumni base is in South Florida. … Not everyone understands. We're OK because we're $10 [million] to $15 million behind ... $30 million is a different deal."

"We see what's coming over the next [few] years," Alford added. "How do you survive being that far behind? That's really the message. What are we going to do to make this up?"

According to Alford, Florida State's current all-in number is $42 million -- counting NCAA Tournament, College Football Playoff and bowl revenue.

One idea -- actually, the main one – is a redistribution model that would award ACC schools for accomplishments like CFP and tournament appearances, conference titles and national championships.

A big problem with all of it? There is a finite amount of cash in the ACC deal. If FSU or Clemson or Miami get paid more for winning the ACC, by consequence, the likes of Boston College and Wake Forest will get less.

Complicating matters is FSU making that ask in the middle of the contract where expected revenue has already been budgeted at member schools.

"If you want to give somebody [to give you something more], you're taking it from someone else," said Mike Tranghese, Big East commissioner from 1990-2009.

Since Alford's comments last Friday, the reaction inside the ACC -- as well the college sports world at-large -- can be summed up by a comment from one veteran conference administrator: "You don't air your laundry."

Florida State makes $32 million a year in media rights as the now self-described revenue king of the ACC. That means FSU believes it has more juice than even Clemson, which has won two national championships since 2016 and seven out of the last eight ACC titles.

The ACC contract has been called iron clad, unbreakable. It may be patterned after the previous Big 12 contract that incorporated the league in Delaware so legal issues would wind up being decided somewhere other than Texas.

Texas and Oklahoma ultimately got out of the Big 12 grant of rights agreement a year early, but it cost them a combined $100 million. The difference is the ACC's deal has 13 years remaining. There is no out clause that is apparent. Lawyers at ACC schools have been poring over the language unable to find one as of yet.

FSU's general counsel stated that exit fees alone would be $120 million. That's not counting breaking the grant of rights. That anchor means the ACC owns the schools' media rights until 2036. And 13 years is 13 years.

The best way to get out of a grant of rights? There isn't an easy one with that much term left on the deal. It would likely take a protracted legal battle that could cost at least three times the exit fee on its own.

"We have a very good handle on the grant of rights," FSU trustees chair Peter Collins told Warchant.com this week.

We'll see. Sports Business Journal reports the ACC is working with media consultant Octagon on a plan.

Tranghese had a plan -- a good one -- back in the day. He was original Big East commissioner Dave Gavitt's right hand man as the league grew into the nation's No. 1 basketball power and later added football. There were eventually eight schools in football which had drastically different budgets. The Big East eventually reached a consensus that Miami football should get extra revenue. The Hurricanes were a dynasty at the time and took on most of the travel burden given their location in South Florida.

"We weren't naïve; we knew Miami was a target [for other conferences]," Tranghese said.

In basketball, 80% of Big East TV revenue was split evenly. The other 20% went as performance bonuses based on CBS network appearances, ESPN Big Monday appearances, NCAA Tournament qualification and Big East Tournament advancement, according to Tranghese.

"It wasn't an argument. It wasn't contentious. It was that way for a period of years," he said. "I read the comments by the athletic director at Florida State. The problem that they have is the gap is so great, they may cut into [it], but they aren't going to close it."

Those were the days when college sports weren't so cutthroat. Ironically, Miami eventually left for the ACC.

Gonzaga currently gets weighted shares for its basketball program in the West Coast Conference. Boise State did it in the Mountain West. The Pac-12 had uneven distribution favoring USC and UCLA until commissioner Larry Scott arrived in 2009.

None of those conferences tried to reconfigure a multibillion-dollar media deal with 13 years left on it. That was the agreement made by former ACC commissioner John Swafford, who locked in the deal that preserved the ACC structure but is now below market value.

Is there a current path for the ACC to close the significant gap?

The Pac-12 Four Corners schools -- Arizona, Arizona State, Colorado and Utah -- will likely wait until the Pac-12 deal is announced before deciding whether the Big 12 might make a more secure home. Then it would be up to ESPN and Fox deciding whether they want to pay those schools as much as those in the Big 12 beginning in 2024, $31.66 million per year.

Few industry sources with whom CBS Sports have discussed the Pac-12's media rights deal believe the conference can reach an agreement that large.

Meanwhile, SMU basically is willing to pay its way into the Pac-12. That includes covering "some of the costs" of joining the league, according to the Fort Worth Star-Telegram.

And that's just to get into the Pac-12 ... or what's left of it.

There has been speculation Oregon benefactor Phil Knight would subsidize the school's move to the Big Ten. It was reportedly last fall that Oregon and Washington had discussions with the Big Ten. The Ducks and Huskies -- the two best names left on the realignment board at the moment -- would probably make that leap if the Pac-12 deal falls short or the Four Corners schools jump to the Big 12.

"Thirty [million] is a big number," Alford reiterated. "We're able to compete now and -- what are we? -- $10 million or $12 million behind. We're not going to make up $30 million."

Is there an acceptable number to be behind the SEC and Big Ten?

"Not yet, but what can we be? That's my point. And what are we doing as a league? I know Jim is working his tail off," he said.

Plenty of phone calls remain with the commissioner.

 

[BurntOrange&White 39,934]

49 minutes ago, Jabberwocky said:

Comments from Mandel on his article.

 

Bro can’t help but suck the pac. 

[Hurtlocker 2,212]

 

[mdmost 43,004]

Yeah, you're coming home. Reminds us again about when you were so happy that you were getting out of the Big 12 and going to the Pac 12?

[Vertigo 20,290]

3 minutes ago, mdmost said:

Yeah, you're coming home. Reminds us again about when you were so happy that you were getting out of the Big 12 and going to the Pac 12?

Did anyone tell them we changed the locks?

[66BUFF 2,564]

14 hours ago, mdmost said:

Yeah, you're coming home. Reminds us again about when you were so happy that you were getting out of the Big 12 and going to the Pac 12?

Because we thought Big 12 south minus Baylor was coming with us.

Edited March 4, 2023 by 66BUFF
typo

[Hurtlocker 2,212]

UW Reporter for Seattle Times:

[ChiTownDoc 21,154]

2 hours ago, Frank Drebin said:

You don't read so good.

SEC ready. 

[BachelorTrek 2,982]

6 minutes ago, Hurtlocker said:

UW Reporter for Seattle Times:

Lulz.

[Jabberwocky 1,666]

I don't know who this guy is, but he seems to be located in Utah. Take it for whatever it is worth, but he says this regarding the Pac 12 tv deal. He has also posted several other doomsday tweets regarding Pac 12 over the past hour:

 

[Hurtlocker 2,212]