Realignment talk not going away

[BurntOrange&White 39934]

3 minutes ago, Sandman said:

So if the Pac-12 wants answers by April 15, maybe it gets them from Apple, but it is not a sure thing. It is one of the most powerful and richest companies, and its decision-makers know it.

The Pac-12 could turn back to ESPN/ABC, but the deal that was once on the table — the same $31 million per year per team that the Big 12 got — is no longer there. If the Pac-12 returns to ESPN, it will likely mean it is willing to take less money in exchange for exposure. At this point, a deal with ESPN is not close.

Damn, that's tough....their arrogance made them want more than their worth  and now going to have to settle for less. Or wait out Apple for similar money but shit exposure. 

Edited March 20, 2023 by BurntOrange&White

[Josef Pwag 1738]

19 hours ago, notre dame joe said:

ASU is now a respected academic school

#121 in US news. No es bueno. 

[YouLoveMyPenises 79]

Apple TV is just such a terrible idea for CFB. As far as I know, streaming services can't legally be shown in bars. So the only people who are going to watch your games are the people at home that actively seek them out and pay for them.

[field 225]

19 hours ago, notre dame joe said:

ASU is now a respected academic school....   

By whom....?

[TrashMaster G 17558]

35 minutes ago, field said:

By whom....?

University of Phoenix?

[LTbear 4170]

35 minutes ago, field said:

By whom....?

By Notre Dame Joe, apparently

[Crockett 490]

20 hours ago, closetohumping said:

 

 

That's quite the ratio

[Park Gothic 5042]

15 minutes ago, Crockett said:

That's quite the ratio

USC_TMB had to go and fuck it up. 

[thunderlounge 7842]

Why would ESPN or Fox want to put more money into the SEC/BIG to add teams, when the remaining fodder can easily be slipped into the B12/ACC at less overall expense?

Does it really matter what a conference wants when the networks aren’t going to fund it?

They get the same end result, balanced across 4 current conferences.

Significantly easier than trying to mash together 2 conferences with 20+ members.

Follow the money. 
 

ND sticks to the ACC, they’re already there.

This also works better in their favor because of the ACC’s GOR. The networks get the pieces they want, then they can do their little P4 breakaway to make a new division/league. From there, they can rebalance as needed for competition, and everybody ends up doing alright.

 

[bullet 1597]

23 hours ago, TKthunder2 said:

Losing Colorado and Mizzou hurt the big TVs numbers when viewing through a lens of markets/demographics. Corn/aggy hurt from a competition/general interest standpoint. They also all hurt academically but that’s not all that important.

Getting Colorado and ASU back helps with markets, Utah and Colorado with Deon helps with general interest, Arizona helps with basketball, and all except ASU helps with academics.

Colorado and Mizzou dragged down the Big 12 average value.  But that was with Texas and OU in the conference.

[bullet 1597]

Wilner and Canzano talk to John Ourand from SBJ.  Ourand says Pac is going to be disappointed.  Doesn't predict any particular numbers but says they are facing a tough market.  Wilner says at the end that he thinks if the pac is within 10% of the Big 12 they stay, but if its $22-$24 million they will have to think about moving.

 

 

 

 

[BurntOrange&White 39934]

12 minutes ago, bullet said:

Wilner and Canzano talk to John Ourand from SBJ.  Ourand says Pac is going to be disappointed.  Doesn't predict any particular numbers but says they are facing a tough market.  Wilner says at the end that he thinks if the pac is within 10% of the Big 12 they stay, but if its $22-$24 million they will have to think about moving.

 

 

 

 

10% could be 2-4 million per season or 12-24 million over 6 years.

Edited March 20, 2023 by BurntOrange&White

[Vertigo 20289]

41 minutes ago, thunderlounge said:

Why would ESPN or Fox want to put more money into the SEC/BIG to add teams, when the remaining fodder can easily be slipped into the B12/ACC at less overall expense?

Does it really matter what a conference wants when the networks aren’t going to fund it?

They get the same end result, balanced across 4 current conferences.

Significantly easier than trying to mash together 2 conferences with 20+ members.

Follow the money. 
 

ND sticks to the ACC, they’re already there.

This also works better in their favor because of the ACC’s GOR. The networks get the pieces they want, then they can do their little P4 breakaway to make a new division/league. From there, they can rebalance as needed for competition, and everybody ends up doing alright.

 

Do you honestly think that Notre Dame finds the ACC attractive for football under the current GOR? Notre Dame already makes more per year than ACC schools do so even with a new GOR it would be very difficult to entice Notre Dame into a long term agreement. The ACC would also have to add ND prior to doing another GOR for them to see that uplift, and Clemson and FSU may bounce the moment they get the chance, further eroding the value. If I am Notre Dame, I would be leaning B1G because my payout goes up dramatically and I would not be diluting the value to the other schools. 

Edited March 20, 2023 by Vertigo

[BurntOrange&White 39934]

I think ND eventually ends up in the BIG or SEC.

[TKthunder2 4992]

9 minutes ago, BurntOrange&White said:

I think ND eventually ends up in the BIG or SEC.

The only way ND ends up in the SEC is if the Big Ten implodes and Michigan, Ohio St, Penn St join the SEC first. I don’t think I’d take the odds on that long shot.

[thunderlounge 7842]

37 minutes ago, Vertigo said:

Do you honestly think that Notre Dame finds the ACC attractive for football under the current GOR? Notre Dame already makes more per year than ACC schools do so even with a new GOR it would be very difficult to entice Notre Dame into a long term agreement. The ACC would also have to add ND prior to doing another GOR for them to see that uplift, and Clemson and FSU may bounce the moment they get the chance, further eroding the value. If I am Notre Dame, I would be leaning B1G because my payout goes up dramatically and I would not be diluting the value to the other schools. 

No, I don’t think they like that. And I never said they did. 
 

Read what I wrote, not what you think I wrote. 

I never said it was ND’s dream or goal. I said they’re already there. In part, of course, but they’re still there. 
 

Why would Fox or ESPN pay more overall to add teams into the BIG/SEC when they can add them to the B12/ACC for less overall? Are there any teams left that would truly offset their addition to the BIG/SEC, aside from maybe ND?

Nope. So why overpay when you don’t have to?

The end result is still the same. 64 teams. Couple that with some form of a play-in open to the remaining D1 in hoops, and that’s that.

Once the leagues are split, the “conferences” are more like divisions. The league handles things like the rulebook, officiating, tv deals, etc.

 

If their goal is still structuring the business end like the NFL, how is that not a logical path?

They get where they’re going, and it costs less to get there.

 

Of course if they’re going to let the conferences keep duking it out on their current level, then that’s all out the window. I’m not convinced the end game has changed, yet.

[Horn of Gabriel 1614]

The 12-team setup creates a situation where there's no enticement for ND to join a conference, ever.  UNTIL the B1G and SEC start to become AFC/NFC and schedule each other nearly exclusively, then ND will find it hard to get enough top level games.  That might do it, or a revenue difference compelling enough that they need to join to stay competitive for coaches or paying players from TV money, which make no mistake will happen in the next 20 years.

[TKthunder2 4992]

Amazon to lay off an additional 9,000 employees. Don’t see them as a realistic option for the PAC tv deal now.

So completely on Apple or low ball ESPN deal. Will be interested to see how they get a “better” deal than the Big 12.

[Uncle Nate 2097]

The UU President chose his words very carefully in this interview.  Maybe I listened to it with anti-PAC 10 ears, but even though he says they're all committed right now to each other, sure sounds like he sees the big picture and is not painting himself in the PAC 10 or bust corner like the ASU president and Utah AD seemed to do the last couple of weeks.

https://espn700sports.com/utes/taylor-randall-gives-the-latest-on-the-pac-12-media-rights-deal-more/

 

 

[Francisco 2.0 32395]

13 minutes ago, TKthunder2 said:

Amazon to lay off an additional 9,000 employees. Don’t see them as a realistic option for the PAC tv deal now.

So completely on Apple or low ball ESPN deal. Will be interested to see how they get a “better” deal than the Big 12.

 

I'm thinking Apple sits this cycle out completely, then plays wait and see with the SEC-B1G and how their own sports offerings work out.  Apple will want as many eyeballs as necessary if they are to justify the expenditure.  

They are dipping their toe into sports, and maybe after a few years of broadcasting they decide to go further, or that it's just not their thing.    At the money they generate (in 2020, they made $94 billion in net income, or around $10 million per hour) whatever it would cost for the rights to the SEC would be a rounding error.

 

 

 

 

Edited March 20, 2023 by Francisco 2.0

[AUinHsv 579]

24 minutes ago, Francisco 2.0 said:

 

I'm thinking Apple sits this cycle out completely, then plays wait and see with the SEC-B1G and how their own sports offerings work out.  Apple will want as many eyeballs as necessary if they are to justify the expenditure.  

They are dipping their toe into sports, and maybe after a few years of broadcasting they decide to go further, or that it's just not their thing.    At the money they generate (in 2020, they made $94 billion in net income, or around $10 million per hour) whatever it would cost for the rights to the SEC would be a rounding error.

 

 

 

 

Just tossing out that the head of Apple went to Auburn. No idea if that changes anything or not in terms of getting SEC.

[billfromlaketravis 11487]

It's about a week old, but F*** Andy Staples thinks Colorado and Arizona are listening to the Big 12. ASU and Utah want to stay to rub academic elbows with Cal and Stanford. 

 

[Uncle Nate 2097]

3 minutes ago, billfromlaketravis said:

It's about a week old, but F*** Andy Staples thinks Colorado and Arizona are listening to the Big 12. ASU and Utah want to stay to rub academic elbows with Cal and Stanford. 

 

Although I think it would be great if only UA and CU came to the Big 12 and the rest stayed behind in their dying conference, there is no way ASU and UU could be so obtuse as to not beg the Big 12 to take them as well should the former happen.

But stranger things have happened.

[billfromlaketravis 11487]

Just now, Uncle Nate said:

Although I think it would be great if only UA and CU came to the Big 12 and the rest stayed behind in their dying conference, there is no way ASU and UU could be so obtuse as to not beg the Big 12 to take them as well should the former happen.

But stranger things have happened.

Yeah Staples thinks no school will leave, but if they do it sounds like they'll backfill with SDSU and maybe SMU. He thinks the PAC screwed up not adding Texas teams when they had the chance. I assume he's referencing Coug High? 

[Vertigo 20289]

1 hour ago, thunderlounge said:

No, I don’t think they like that. And I never said they did. 
 

Read what I wrote, not what you think I wrote. 

I never said it was ND’s dream or goal. I said they’re already there. In part, of course, but they’re still there. 
 

Why would Fox or ESPN pay more overall to add teams into the BIG/SEC when they can add them to the B12/ACC for less overall? Are there any teams left that would truly offset their addition to the BIG/SEC, aside from maybe ND?

Nope. So why overpay when you don’t have to?

The end result is still the same. 64 teams. Couple that with some form of a play-in open to the remaining D1 in hoops, and that’s that.

Once the leagues are split, the “conferences” are more like divisions. The league handles things like the rulebook, officiating, tv deals, etc.

 

If their goal is still structuring the business end like the NFL, how is that not a logical path?

They get where they’re going, and it costs less to get there.

 

Of course if they’re going to let the conferences keep duking it out on their current level, then that’s all out the window. I’m not convinced the end game has changed, yet.

I think it really just comes down to marquee matchups. If ND joins the B1G, then you get a minimum of 3 more national games per year against tOSU, Michigan, USC, UCLA, and/or Penn State. Ranked games featuring ND are always going to be nationally televised with huge ratings, similar to Texas. That is far more valuable than Notre Dame vs. an ACC schedule, therefore Notre Dame is more valuable in the B1G.

In 2021, ND vs Ohio State had over 10 million viewers. 

Notre Dame vs USC in 2022 had just under 7 million viewers.

the last Notre Dame vs Michigan game did over 7 million viewers. 

Notre Dame vs. Penn State would likely do 6+ million. 

 

Here is their viewership with an ACC leaning schedule. You could probably pencil in numbers like these against lower tier B1G competition like Indiana and Minnesota, which would also be more valuable than the million or so viewers those crappy teams usually pull. 

Notice the biggest ratings draw. 

Edited March 20, 2023 by Vertigo

[Uncle Nate 2097]

12 minutes ago, billfromlaketravis said:

Yeah Staples thinks no school will leave, but if they do it sounds like they'll backfill with SDSU and maybe SMU. He thinks the PAC screwed up not adding Texas teams when they had the chance. I assume he's referencing Coug High? 

No.

I think he's either referring to back in 2010(?) when PAC-10 could have had UT, TT, OU, & OSU when A&M decided to throw their little tantrum, and/or then again back in 2021 when UT and OU announced leaving to SEC, the PAC decided they didn't want the likes of Tech, OSU, TCU et al in their treehouse.

[Texas Wahoo 3397]

11 minutes ago, Vertigo said:

I think it really just comes down to marquee matchups. If ND joins the B1G, then you get a minimum of 3 more national games per year against tOSU, Michigan, USC, UCLA, and/or Penn State. Ranked games featuring ND are always going to be nationally televised with huge ratings, similar to Texas. That is far more valuable than Notre Dame vs. an ACC schedule, therefore Notre Dame is more valuable in the B1G.

In 2021, ND vs Ohio State had over 10 million viewers. 

Notre Dame vs USC in 2022 had just under 7 million viewers.

the last Notre Dame vs Michigan game did over 7 million viewers. 

 

Here is their viewership with an ACC leaning schedule

Notice the biggest ratings draw from last year. 

If Notre Dame were eventually to join a conference, I agree it would probably be the Big Ten.  However, that is not likely to happen, even in the medium to long run and certainly not before 2036, when their agreement to not join any non-ACC conference is up.  Even if the ACC gets watered down in some way (like if Clemson and FSU leave), I doubt that matters much to Notre Dame.

 

The only thing that would force their hand is if they do not think they can get a decent schedule because the major conferences are not playing enough non-conference games, but everyone will make room for Notre Dame games, because Notre Dame games are immensely valuable.

[thunderlounge 7842]

51 minutes ago, Vertigo said:

I think it really just comes down to marquee matchups. If ND joins the B1G, then you get a minimum of 3 more national games per year against tOSU, Michigan, USC, UCLA, and/or Penn State. Ranked games featuring ND are always going to be nationally televised with huge ratings, similar to Texas. That is far more valuable than Notre Dame vs. an ACC schedule, therefore Notre Dame is more valuable in the B1G.

In 2021, ND vs Ohio State had over 10 million viewers. 

Notre Dame vs USC in 2022 had just under 7 million viewers.

the last Notre Dame vs Michigan game did over 7 million viewers. 

Notre Dame vs. Penn State would likely do 6+ million. 

 

Here is their viewership with an ACC leaning schedule. You could probably pencil in numbers like these against lower tier B1G competition like Indiana and Minnesota, which would also be more valuable than the million or so viewers those crappy teams usually pull. 

Notice the biggest ratings draw. 

Oh, I agree a game against ND and another name is valuable. Absolutely. 
 

But are they worth enough to pay for 2 shares in the B1G? They’ll have to carry whomever would be the second part of the pair.

The ACC stuff goes another 13 years. Look what’s changed since 2010. That’s a long time to sit and wait on a road block to clear when the service road can get you through in less time overall.

 

[hook me 2092]

2 hours ago, thunderlounge said:

No, I don’t think they like that. And I never said they did. 
 

Read what I wrote, not what you think I wrote. 

I never said it was ND’s dream or goal. I said they’re already there. In part, of course, but they’re still there. 
 

Why would Fox or ESPN pay more overall to add teams into the BIG/SEC when they can add them to the B12/ACC for less overall? Are there any teams left that would truly offset their addition to the BIG/SEC, aside from maybe ND?

Nope. So why overpay when you don’t have to?

The end result is still the same. 64 teams. Couple that with some form of a play-in open to the remaining D1 in hoops, and that’s that.

Once the leagues are split, the “conferences” are more like divisions. The league handles things like the rulebook, officiating, tv deals, etc.

 

If their goal is still structuring the business end like the NFL, how is that not a logical path?

They get where they’re going, and it costs less to get there.

 

Of course if they’re going to let the conferences keep duking it out on their current level, then that’s all out the window. I’m not convinced the end game has changed, yet.

ESPN would be pretty dumb to do anything until closer to 2036, but once the ACC deal is up they're going to have to make a decision. Adding 4-5 of the more popular brands (UNC, UVA, Clemson, FSU, UM) at $100mm/year to the SEC & pushing 4-5 second tier brands (NCST, VA. TECH, PITT, Duke) to the Big 12 that they split with FOX 60/40 currently would save money. Even if they give the Big 12 a bump to $50mm/school/year they're still saving money when compared to paying the Big 12, ACC, & SEC what they'll all push to be paid 10 years from now. Obviously FOX, CBS,  NBC, will have some say in who goes where & when, but it would behoove them for the big brands of the ACC to breakoff as well. They can snag ND & give the SEC a run for its money with UVA & UNC & they can get the best content without paying top dollar for Syracuse, GA TECH, & WAKE. At the end of the day it's be an interesting game of chess between the conferences & the TV partners but I think both of them would prefer to cherry-pick the top brands at that point.

[TrashMaster G 17558]

1 hour ago, billfromlaketravis said:

It's about a week old, but F*** Andy Staples thinks Colorado and Arizona are listening to the Big 12. ASU and Utah want to stay to rub academic elbows with Cal and Stanford. 

ASU looking down at Big 12 academics makes as much sense as texas a&m expecting an invite to the Ivy League.

[tbone_ 14127]

ASU is better academically these days. Probably better than aggy now.

[billfromlaketravis 11487]

Methinks ASU unlocked some serious research dollars, and their admin cares more about that than a football program which been nothing but a problem child lately. 

[Magus Ossis 2800]

5 minutes ago, tbone_ said:

ASU is better academically these days. Probably better than aggy now.

That depends. Some aggy are technically enrolled at Blinn. ASU may have passed the others, though.

[bullet 1597]

4 hours ago, Horn of Gabriel said:

The 12-team setup creates a situation where there's no enticement for ND to join a conference, ever.  UNTIL the B1G and SEC start to become AFC/NFC and schedule each other nearly exclusively, then ND will find it hard to get enough top level games.  That might do it, or a revenue difference compelling enough that they need to join to stay competitive for coaches or paying players from TV money, which make no mistake will happen in the next 20 years.

If the ACC loses its best, then the ACC is no longer attractive as a non-fb and part time fb home.  If recruiting is dominated by the P2, Notre Dame will face the same issue UT and OU faced.

[Jabberwocky 1666]

 

[Gidnik 3270]

6 hours ago, BurntOrange&White said:

10% could be 2-4 million per season or 12-24 million over 6 years.

and oh by the way they owe 50mil to comcast

[TrashMaster G 17558]

42 minutes ago, Jabberwocky said:

 

So... what's really going on with Joe Buck and Troy Aikman?

[Jabberwocky 1666]

1 hour ago, TrashMaster G said:

So... what's really going on with Joe Buck and Troy Aikman?

I guess he retweeted the wrong NYpost article?

[Jabberwocky 1666]

There seems to be Pac 12 contract negotiations content in the article if you read it.

[notre dame joe 187]

9 hours ago, Vertigo said:

I think it really just comes down to marquee matchups. If ND joins the B1G, then you get a minimum of 3 more national games per year against tOSU, Michigan, USC, UCLA, and/or Penn State. Ranked games featuring ND are always going to be nationally televised with huge ratings, similar to Texas. That is far more valuable than Notre Dame vs. an ACC schedule, therefore Notre Dame is more valuable in the B1G.

In 2021, ND vs Ohio State had over 10 million viewers. 

Notre Dame vs USC in 2022 had just under 7 million viewers.

the last Notre Dame vs Michigan game did over 7 million viewers. 

Notre Dame vs. Penn State would likely do 6+ million. 

 

Here is their viewership with an ACC leaning schedule. You could probably pencil in numbers like these against lower tier B1G competition like Indiana and Minnesota, which would also be more valuable than the million or so viewers those crappy teams usually pull. 

Notice the biggest ratings draw. 

Too many saw that Marshall game. 

 

the matchup = ratings argument has been true for 100 years and we didn't land in a conference.  And tv ratings could not not have even been a silent reason the dealt with the ACC; in the years leading up to 2012 Clemson was still Clemsoning and FSU was down. 

[DCLonghorn 244]

Totally unrelated/related, but the announcers in last night's Japan v Mexico World Baseball Classic said that 63m people watched the Japan v Korea game...in Japan alone.

That's a serious wow stat... And mildly relevant comparatively as huge dollars are thrown around for rights to CFB games that get 7-10m viewers. 

[Uncle Nate 2097]

I find this latest from Wilner absolutely hilarious.  First, he provides ZERO new information, but rather finally admits to what everyone else can see.  Second, he's trying to give himself an out from the many months of his stance that the Pac 12 won't fold, it's better than the Big 12, it will get a great TV deal, yada yada yada.  And to be honest, it still may...but it's just funny to finally see Wilner admit there's a possibility GK fucked this whole thing up.

 

 

[camel at sea 589]

19 minutes ago, Uncle Nate said:

I find this latest from Wilner absolutely hilarious.  First, he provides ZERO new information, but rather finally admits to what everyone else can see.  Second, he's trying to give himself an out from the many months of his stance that the Pac 12 won't fold, it's better than the Big 12, it will get a great TV deal, yada yada yada.  And to be honest, it still may...but it's just funny to finally see Wilner admit there's a possibility GK fucked this whole thing up.

 

 

The PAC was screwed when 1) FOX wasn't interested in their inventory (pretty much from the jump), and 2) the B1G swallowed up every linear carrier who might have been able to partially replace FOX as a carrier.  

If the benchmark they've set is 50% linear, they're going to have a really hard time meeting the financial benchmark of being within ___% of the Big 12's deal.

The way that everyone on the PAC side continues to kick the can down the road, it's starting to create an impression that they're hoping to save face - after  being raided - by arguing that the PAC didn't lose to the Big 12, it just ran out of time.    

[Uncle Nate 2097]

49 minutes ago, camel at sea said:

The PAC was screwed when 1) FOX wasn't interested in their inventory (pretty much from the jump), and 2) the B1G swallowed up every linear carrier who might have been able to partially replace FOX as a carrier.  

If the benchmark they've set is 50% linear, they're going to have a really hard time meeting the financial benchmark of being within ___% of the Big 12's deal.

The way that everyone on the PAC side continues to kick the can down the road, it's starting to create an impression that they're hoping to save face - after  being raided - by arguing that the PAC didn't lose to the Big 12, it just ran out of time.    

Pacific Coast Aggy?

[Jabberwocky 1666]

 

[Jabberwocky 1666]

Canzano said on his radio show on the 16th to watch for dominoes to fall after the Pac12 board meeting on the 21st:

John Wilner says this today:

 

[LTbear 4170]

MHVer (I know, I know) says the meeting was cancelled because there was nothing to discuss (the TV offer was shit). Jason Scheer is calling Wilner's tweet "semantics" (as in, technically there was no meeting because it was a zoom call and Wilner is doing damage control). This is like a daytime soap opera. 

[Nueces River Rat 5539]

On 3/20/2023 at 7:59 PM, TrashMaster G said:

So... what's really going on with Joe Buck and Troy Aikman?

[Jabberwocky 1666]

 

[billfromlaketravis 11487]

1 hour ago, Jabberwocky said:

Canzano said on his radio show on the 16th to watch for dominoes to fall after the Pac12 board meeting on the 21st:

John Wilner says this today:

 

Yeah, I’d call that smoke.