Realignment talk not going away

[bullet 1,599]

Now here is post OU/UGA vs. NCAA and post BYU fluke championship, 1985-2022.  I listed the same 31.

Top 20 have all 38 MNCs, 33 of 38 2nd places and 34 of 38 3rd places.

			1	2	3	4	5	places	points
1	AL		7	3	0	1	3	14	52
2	OSU		2	4	3	4	4	17	47
3	FSU		3	2	5	4	1	15	47
4	Miami		4	4	2	0	1	11	43
5	OU		2	0	5	1	4	12	31
6	FL		3	1	2	1	3	10	30
7	USC		2	1	3	2	0	8	27
8	GA		2	2	1	1	1	7	24
9	Clemson		2	2	1	1	0	6	23
10	LSU		2	2	1	0	1	6	22
11	NE		2	1	2	0	1	6	21
12	ND		1	2	0	2	2	7	19
13	UM		1	1	2	1	2	7	19
14	OR		0	3	1	1	1	6	18
15	PSU		1	1	3	0	0	5	18
16	AU		1	2	0	1	0	4	15
17	TX		1	1	0	1	2	5	13
18	TN		1	0	1	2	1	5	13
19	CO		1		1	1	1	4	11
20	WA		0	1	1	1	1	4	10
21	TCU		0	2	1	0	0	3	11
22	Utah		0	1	0	1	0	2	6
23	Stanford		0	0	1	1	0	2	5
24	Mich St.		0	0	1	0	1	2	4
25	VT		0	1	0	0	0	1	4
26	GT		0	1	0	0	0	1	4
27	AZ St.		0	0	0	2	0	2	4
39	Arkansas		0	0	0	0	1	1	1
39	BYU		0	0	0	0	1	1	1
	Pitt		0	0	0	0	0	0	0
	SMU		0	0	0	0	0	0	0

 

All others 0-0-0-9-6-16-27

[bullet 1,599]

The point is that there are only a few schools who are a threat to win an MNC on more than a rare fluke occasion.  The P2 has all of them but ND, Miami, FSU, Clemson, Oregon and Washington (and Colorado who has declined).    

[Hurtlocker 2,213]

2 hours ago, Trojan Man said:

This is true with respect to the B1G potentially adding Oregon and Washington since those two would be above at least 10 B1G schools on the football totem pole as soon as they joined, but I don't think it would be a barrier to adding ACC teams.  Nobody is worried about competing against the football programs at North Carolina, Virginia, Duke, Georgia Tech and Miami.  Those are a bunch of schedule filler teams and Miami is the only one with potential to rise above that.  Florida State is the one significant ACC football brand that could end up in the B1G.  They're still a longshot and if they join it would be alongside enough beatable teams that it wouldn't upset the ratio of wheat to chaff.  Just like the have nots don't want too many haves around keeping them perpetually down the haves also don't want to be in a conference where it feels like they don't have enough peers and they are burdened by a bunch of have nots who are just there to cash checks.

I don't think anyone is concerned about playing Oregon, Washington nor any ACC teams.   I think their concern is having less opportunities to be on the receiving end of the three massive exposure slots the Big Ten has going forward.   Michigan, Ohio State, USC and Penn State will dominate those slots, but they need opponents.   The more opponents in the conference, the less chances there are for Indiana and Purdue and Iowa to be on those games.

[Sandbagging Steve 982]

4 minutes ago, bullet said:

Now here is post OU/UGA vs. NCAA and post BYU fluke championship, 1985-2022.  I listed the same 31.

Top 20 have all 38 MNCs, 33 of 38 2nd places and 34 of 38 3rd places.

			1	2	3	4	5	places	points
1	AL		7	3	0	1	3	14	52
2	OSU		2	4	3	4	4	17	47
3	FSU		3	2	5	4	1	15	47
4	Miami		4	4	2	0	1	11	43
5	OU		2	0	5	1	4	12	31
6	FL		3	1	2	1	3	10	30
7	USC		2	1	3	2	0	8	27
8	GA		2	2	1	1	1	7	24
9	Clemson		2	2	1	1	0	6	23
10	LSU		2	2	1	0	1	6	22
11	NE		2	1	2	0	1	6	21
12	ND		1	2	0	2	2	7	19
13	UM		1	1	2	1	2	7	19
14	OR		0	3	1	1	1	6	18
15	PSU		1	1	3	0	0	5	18
16	AU		1	2	0	1	0	4	15
17	TX		1	1	0	1	2	5	13
18	TN		1	0	1	2	1	5	13
19	CO		1		1	1	1	4	11
20	WA		0	1	1	1	1	4	10
21	TCU		0	2	1	0	0	3	11
22	Utah		0	1	0	1	0	2	6
23	Stanford		0	0	1	1	0	2	5
24	Mich St.		0	0	1	0	1	2	4
25	VT		0	1	0	0	0	1	4
26	GT		0	1	0	0	0	1	4
27	AZ St.		0	0	0	2	0	2	4
39	Arkansas		0	0	0	0	1	1	1
39	BYU		0	0	0	0	1	1	1
	Pitt		0	0	0	0	0	0	0
	SMU		0	0	0	0	0	0	0

 

All others 0-0-0-9-6-16-27

This is the one that means the most for competitiveness moving forward in this era.

 

1 minute ago, bullet said:

The point is that there are only a few schools who are a threat to win an MNC on more than a rare fluke occasion.  The P2 has all of them but ND, Miami, FSU, Clemson, Oregon and Washington (and Colorado who has declined).    

Yep, and then you add a big state school like UNC and it's done. But there will be more than 16 teams in each conference and more than 9 conference games.

The third conference will still be involved and fun to watch. And they may continue to get a shot at the playoffs. It's a win-win situation for all.

[bullet 1,599]

On the last the "all others" should be 0-0-1-9-6-16-27   There are only 9 times any outside the top 20 have cracked the top 3 in 38 years.  TCU has 3 and 6 others have 1.  Okie St. is the 1 3rd place finish among "all others."

[Hurtlocker 2,213]

2 minutes ago, bullet said:

On the last the "all others" should be 0-0-1-9-6-16-27   There are only 9 times any outside the top 20 have cracked the top 3 in 38 years.  TCU has 3 and 6 others have 1.  Okie St. is the 1 3rd place finish among "all others."

In the ranking that blew up the BCS.   Thank you Oklahoma State.

[Sandbagging Steve 982]

3 minutes ago, Hurtlocker said:

I don't think anyone is concerned about playing Oregon, Washington nor any ACC teams.   I think their concern is having less opportunities to be on the receiving end of the three massive exposure slots the Big Ten has going forward.   Michigan, Ohio State, USC and Penn State will dominate those slots, but they need opponents.   The more opponents in the conference, the less chances there are for Indiana and Purdue and Iowa to be on those games.

Absolutely true, but they will eventually cave in or watch the Bluebloods leave the conference and start one big league. Some of the small schools are in this spot because of THEIR greed. They refused to do what was best for the sport for many decades and the Bluebloods are tired of dealing with it. From revenue distribution to some of the absolutely ridiculous rules and regulations put in the place by the small schools that refused to budge for decades.

[USC Traveler 488]

11 hours ago, Laxtonto said:

My biggest issue with the B10 poaching more schools from the P12 is that they are essentially conceding that the dream that is ND is dead. The great white whale will never be caught and the last big cash cow will either by default stay with the ACC or their will have to be language for independents and another ND style clause for the for the expanded CFP.

At some point expansion hits a cap even with a 9 conference game schedule. Until rules make a 13 game schedule a permanent possibility, you really can’t expand beyond probably 18 (5 games in division, rotating 2 in other division and get home and away every 6 years) and keep the fans happy.

Now if you are looking at a 10 game conf schedule all sorts of possibilities open up but at some point the saturation of teams make scheduling a headache and consistent rivalries diminish and lose  tv value.

Agree 100%.

Landing ND will be expansion priority 1-100 until it happens.  No other non-P2 school delivers anywhere near the value ND does.

The only way I see anyone being added before ND would be if ND hangs on in the ACC till the bitter end, and the BIG (along with the SEC) adds some ACC schools to make the conference collapse, leaving ND no realistic alternative to the BIG.

Other than that scenario, there's no reason for the BIG to add anyone else before ND.  

 

[USC Traveler 488]

6 hours ago, Hurtlocker said:

Living in the tidewater, I can guarantee you that while people are mildly interested when these teams win, the vast majority of the population could give a shit.   Its similar to Cali.   Both schools are like Cal, huge potential, but football is like this fun thing for the kids, as they churn out doctorates.   At both schools students have to go to football games to get priority tiering to the basketball games.   The stadiums are nice, but smaller than the likes of WVU, ISU, South Carolina, or the four corners.

They're in the right spot, but they're more like Kentucky than Tennessee

Where are you in Tidewater ?

I spent about half my time growing up in VA Beach, with the other half up in NOVA.

I agree about the UVA and UNC programs, but I think the money to be made by BTN in those states, recruiting (both athletes and regular students) and alum engagement will make them attractive for the BIG.  Similar calculation for adding GT I would think, and if the BIG could get FSU and Miami, that would be a no brainer.  It would bring two very solid football brands to help offset dilution of the product,  and getting into FL would obviously be huge for all the above reasons.

Most importantly, if ND is still holding out, the ACC being carved up by the BIG and SEC sends ND to the BIG.

 

[USC Traveler 488]

3 hours ago, Sandbagging Steve said:

Yep! Notre Dame is going to feel the squeeze and then it's up to those 2. I do think UNC would be a lock to the SEC, but there's always the possibility that there is some ego-driven, authoritarian-style president who could go against what the alumni, fan base and the entire state prefer, which is the SEC. It could have happened to Texas as well. Different situations but with some similarities (UNC/Texas)

Yeah- how things play out with the ACC schools is going to be the most fascinating part of the final stage.

I have no doubt ND ends up in the BIG, but as you mentioned in your post, the admin mindset at UVA and UNC is very different than the fanbase mindset.  I don't know what the donor class at those schools wants, so I feel like it could go either way.

Culturally, and in terms of spending priorities, VT and NC St feel much more like SEC schools, while UVA and UNC feel much more like BIG schools.

I actually think it would be better for CFB as a whole if UVA/UNC went BIG and VT/NC St went SEC .  That would make those rivalries that much spicier.

[Hurtlocker 2,213]

If you're a media deal nerd or looking to become an internet board expert in short order, this is one of the best looks at the B12/P10 I've seen yet.

Why the PAC10 is Struggling to Make a Media Deal

It's from the Utah ESPN radio affiliate and dives into the numbers.   So many numbers, its long, very long.  I'm not even going to quote it, that is how long it is.  Very much worth a read though.    

TLDR:  The new Big 12 has grown eyeballs by more than 30% while the Pac is losing them.   This also syncs with something said when the Big 12 signed their new deal, which was the teams not named Texas and OU had increased their viewership over the past several years by nearly 40%.   That now syncs with this article and why one got signed without losing money and the other is struggling.

[Hurtlocker 2,213]

1 hour ago, USC Traveler said:

Where are you in Tidewater ?

I spent about half my time growing up in VA Beach, with the other half up in NOVA.

I agree about the UVA and UNC programs, but I think the money to be made by BTN in those states, recruiting (both athletes and regular students) and alum engagement will make them attractive for the BIG.  Similar calculation for adding GT I would think, and if the BIG could get FSU and Miami, that would be a no brainer.  It would bring two very solid football brands to help offset dilution of the product,  and getting into FL would obviously be huge for all the above reasons.

Most importantly, if ND is still holding out, the ACC being carved up by the BIG and SEC sends ND to the BIG.

 

NoVA now, but was down at the beach last week!

And I'd agree with you on the B1G, but, as you know, VA is weird.   Its biggest single town is Richmond, which is around the size of Fresno and home to VCU and Richmond, and VA's two biggest metro areas are either a conglomeration of towns (Norfolk, etc) or the outside of a major metro (NoVa).   The B1G already has the DMV with Maryland, which means the 6m other people in the state are around several solid conclaves under the size of like Des Moines or Toledo.   Add to that that all the old, little state schools are exploding in enrollment because UVA keeps its enrollment small, and the population, while large, is fractured.   Tech is wedged into the far corner of the state away from about anything.    Around me, there are just as many JMU fans, which cannot build fast enough to keep up, as there are UVA and Tech and Mason is now the largest state school - which doesn't even have a football team.   Most follow the NFL.   

But, there isn't a single school in VA that has a passion around it that rivals the SEC, Big Ten or even the Big 12.

[billfromlaketravis 11,534]

Finebaum is based in North Carolina, and he spent the pre August 2021 years shilling for NC State and VT to join the SEC. I guess because of the population/growth  of their states, and culture fit. They are large state universities that seem to care about football. At least, care more about football than basketball, which is a feat in that part of the world. 
 

Kind of ironic that Mouth of South’s chosen two will probably never join the conference. 

The SEC/ESPN seems to be betting on regional match ups, tribalism, and fan engagement. While the Big Ten/FOX seems to be betting on TV markets, national footprint, and large/historic alumni bases. It’ll be fascinating to see how it plays out.

 

Edited April 20, 2023 by billfromlaketravis

[Hurtlocker 2,213]

8 minutes ago, billfromlaketravis said:

Finebaum is based in North Carolina, and he spent the pre August 2021 years shilling for NC State and VT to join the SEC. I guess because of the population/growth  of their states, and culture fit. They are large state universities that seem to care about football. At least, care more about football than basketball, which is a feat in that part of the world. 
 

Kind of ironic that Mouth of South’s chosen two will probably never join the conference. 

The SEC/ESPN seems to be betting on regional match ups, tribalism, and fan engagement. While the Big Ten/FOX seem to be betting on TV markets, national footprint, and large/historic alumni bases. It’ll be fascinating to see how it plays out.

 

Tech for sure.   The SEC could have marketed the living hell out of the Battle at Bristol yearly.  

[Al_4_ISU 12,500]

My aunt has been in the Tidewater for nearly 40 years, and I can remember her husband pointing out in the 90’s how college football in Virginia was a total afterthought compared to the Midwest.

Oddly enough, their oldest (my cousin) went to NC State and is a diehard Wolfpack fan.  Never had a lick of interest in Tech or UVA.

[BurntOrange&White 40,044]

10 hours ago, Hurtlocker said:

If you're a media deal nerd or looking to become an internet board expert in short order, this is one of the best looks at the B12/P10 I've seen yet.

Why the PAC10 is Struggling to Make a Media Deal

It's from the Utah ESPN radio affiliate and dives into the numbers.   So many numbers, its long, very long.  I'm not even going to quote it, that is how long it is.  Very much worth a read though.    

TLDR:  The new Big 12 has grown eyeballs by more than 30% while the Pac is losing them.   This also syncs with something said when the Big 12 signed their new deal, which was the teams not named Texas and OU had increased their viewership over the past several years by nearly 40%.   That now syncs with this article and why one got signed without losing money and the other is struggling.

I'd wager the PAC is only looking at the positives this article points out as their reasoning for a deal. Their pride is taking too much of a front seat. The denial stated in the article IMO is exactly what PAC is currently going through.

 

Cool chart from article:

 

 

This quote is exactly the problem with the PAC:

 

"And with that, we circle back to “denial” – while the PAC and Big 12 appear to be on relatively equal ground at the moment, they are headed in opposite directions.  And the PAC insists on being viewed not as what they might be in the future, not even as what they are today, but as what they were a decade ago."

Edited April 20, 2023 by BurntOrange&White

[DFW Horn 6,223]

10 hours ago, Hurtlocker said:

Why the PAC10 is Struggling to Make a Media Deal

It's from the Utah ESPN radio affiliate and dives into the numbers.   So many numbers, its long, very long.  I'm not even going to quote it, that is how long it is.  Very much worth a read though.   

Good article, but I don't know why it even bothers discussing "academics" as a metric for potential media partners. Since it's a Utah station, I'll assume they're just rationalizing their current predicament. "But, our schools is better".

Yormark should go ahead and nab SDSU if Utah or ASU balks.

Edited April 20, 2023 by DFW Horn

['stache 21,892]

I follow academia quite a bit and Utah has never hit my radar as any better or worse than any other average big state school. Do they seriously think they’re like Michigan or UNC? I don’t think so.

[DFW Horn 6,223]

40 minutes ago, BurntOrange&White said:

What are SEC members projected to earn with UT & OU and a 9-game league schedule?

$70MM +, right?

[closetohumping 17,476]

16 minutes ago, 'stache said:

I follow academia quite a bit and Utah has never hit my radar as any better or worse than any other average big state school. Do they seriously think they’re like Michigan or UNC? I don’t think so.

Utah gets the California kids who couldn't get into the UC system.

[BurntOrange&White 40,044]

1 minute ago, DFW Horn said:

What are SEC members projected to earn with UT & OU and a 9-game league schedule?

$70MM +, right?

I don't think defined numbers have been given yet but I could be wrong. 

 

What is it for the BIG?

[hook me 2,103]

10 minutes ago, BurntOrange&White said:

I don't think defined numbers have been given yet but I could be wrong. 

 

What is it for the BIG?

[USC Traveler 488]

13 hours ago, bullet said:

Dodds hates the Big 12.  He's a Missouri guy.

Then he’s definitely on Yormark’s payroll, as he and, to a slightly lesser extent, McMurphy have been the two guys who have been banging the drum the most on the death of the P12, B12 talking to Four Corners, and the PNW schools going to the BIG.

All of those things are well-suited to keeping the PAC unstable and making the Four Corners schools nervous about other schools leaving.

B12 has done a great job winning the propaganda war and helping give cover for the 4C schools to leave whenever Klownkoff presents their “final” tv deal, which will most likely be woefully inadequate.

[DFW Horn 6,223]

57 minutes ago, BurntOrange&White said:

I don't think defined numbers have been given yet but I could be wrong. 

What is it for the BIG?

Between $60-$70MM last I checked.

[BurntOrange&White 40,044]

Just now, DFW Horn said:

Between $60-$70MM last I checked.

Gotcha, is ESPN going to restructure the SEC deal once we arrive? I assume they would and I'd imagine the number would at or above the BIGs

[DFW Horn 6,223]

Just now, BurntOrange&White said:

Gotcha, is ESPN going to restructure the SEC deal once we arrive? I assume they would and I'd imagine the number would at or above the BIGs

Yes, absolutely.

Put all the bullshit aside and know this move is about money, short and long-term. Better recruiting is just gravy.

[Hurtlocker 2,213]

1 hour ago, DFW Horn said:

What are SEC members projected to earn with UT & OU and a 9-game league schedule?

$70MM +, right?

Yeah I think it will be about 70 if they go to nine, 60 if they don't.   

[BurntOrange&White 40,044]

15 minutes ago, Hurtlocker said:

Yeah I think it will be about 70 if they go to nine, 60 if they don't.   

I think with 9 it's closer to 75-80 but 8 conference game about 70. Look at most watched games outside of CCG and bowl/playoffs. Littered with SEC teams or future SEC teams. 

 

Edited April 20, 2023 by BurntOrange&White

[camel at sea 589]

1 hour ago, USC Traveler said:

Then he’s definitely on Yormark’s payroll, as he and, to a slightly lesser extent, McMurphy have been the two guys who have been banging the drum the most on the death of the P12, B12 talking to Four Corners, and the PNW schools going to the BIG.

All of those things are well-suited to keeping the PAC unstable and making the Four Corners schools nervous about other schools leaving.

B12 has done a great job winning the propaganda war and helping give cover for the 4C schools to leave whenever Klownkoff presents their “final” tv deal, which will most likely be woefully inadequate.

My impression has been that ESPN/FOX want to pull the PAC apart.  The Big 12 is the lucky beneficiary of that desire.  I think Yormark is getting a lot of credit for stuff happening - to his benefit - at the network level above him.  I'd guess that the networks (maybe through a 3rd party) are primarily behind the propaganda war, too.

There's this narrative that the PAC could have just opted to extend its current deal with ESPN/FOX if it had approached things differently, but my impression is that FOX wanted no part of that.  They jumped out of the renegotiation with the PAC as soon as possible and never seriously returned.  Klatt was one of the first people to float the 4C to Big 12 idea.  ESPN, for their part, has stayed in talks but has been lowballing the PAC since the outset, too.  They just want west coast teams for the late TV window.  They don't need an entire conference just for that.  They can meet those needs with just a few schools moved to the Big 12.

[Hurtlocker 2,213]

37 minutes ago, BurntOrange&White said:

Gotcha, is ESPN going to restructure the SEC deal once we arrive? I assume they would and I'd imagine the number would at or above the BIGs

I'd be surprised if it was above the B1G.   They have massive viewership numbers so its not like the SEC outpaces them like it does the ACC/B12.   And their deal pitched three networks against each other to provide 3 T1 games per day and on top of that they have a 40% ownership stake in BTN.   The SEC only has ABC - so no competition, is locked in until 2034, the SECN is a rights agreement, and the mouse is firing people and they want to go after the NBA.   

After the SEC signed $3b/10 year deal with ESPN for T1 rights the 14 SEC teams were slated to make $40m/year on their tv deals with the mouse - or pay out about $560m annually just for broadcast (they'll make more with bowls, playoffs, etc). To just break even with the move they'd have to pay the SEC $640m/year.   To get to $60m each yearly, they'd have to increase to $1b/year, or a 78% increase.

To reach the heights of the Big Ten, they'll need to make $560m/year more by adding UT/OU and moving to 9.    That's 114% increase, a sizable jump for 8 great games a year and an increase in value to any games TX/OU play in (e.g. Bama/Texas vs Bama/Kentucky).  That would mean TX/OU were worth more than the entire SEC, combined.

The only way I can see them doing that is the same way the B1G did it.   The current T1 deal the Mouse bought from CBS is for the top 16 games on ABC at any window the Mouse wants (not just the 3:30 eastern slot).   They'd have to add 32 more T1 games, basically playing the SEC on ABC in the noon/3:30/Prime spots and valuing every game the same as they valued it for the first deal.   That adds $600m/year.

[DFW Horn 6,223]

4 minutes ago, camel at sea said:

My impression has been that ESPN/FOX want to pull the PAC apart.  The Big 12 is the lucky beneficiary of that desire.  I think Yormark is getting a lot of credit for stuff happening - to his benefit - at the network level above him.  I'd guess that the networks (maybe through a 3rd party) are primarily behind the propaganda war, too.

There's this narrative that the PAC could have just opted to extend its current deal with ESPN/FOX if it had approached things differently, but my impression is that FOX wanted no part of that.  They jumped out of the renegotiation with the PAC as soon as possible and never seriously returned.  Klatt was one of the first people to float the 4C to Big 12 idea.  ESPN, for their part, has stayed in talks but has been lowballing the PAC since the outset, too.  They just want west coast teams for the late TV window.  They don't need an entire conference just for that.  They can meet those needs with just a few schools moved to the Big 12.

Long-term, ESPN/FOX will save money with fewer "power" conferences. This maneuvering and propaganda is deliberate, IMO. Credit to Yormark for moving fast on the Big 12's contract, but he's got nothing to do with ESPN/FOX wanting consolidation.

[USC Traveler 488]

On 4/19/2023 at 7:34 AM, Al_4_ISU said:

I think something that's kinda out there but not really being mentioned all that much is that the recent reporting indicates that a lot of Big 10 Presidents are opposed to further expansion.  It seems like Warren had to drag all but maybe the power brokers into adding USC/UCLA. 

If you're anyone not named Michigan, Ohio State, and Penn State, adding big brands just creates another barrier between you and relevance.  Every Iowa fan I know, while quick to brag about the Big 10 TV deal, will privately acknowledge that Iowa's at a major risk for being completely irrelevant inside of the new league.  I would imagine this sentiment is shared by almost everyone else in the league other than the 3 schools I mentioned before and maybe Wisconsin.

Outside of Notre Dame, it wouldn't surprise me at all if the majority of Big 10 schools didn't want to add anyone, even though it seems like some of the ACC brands make a lot of sense.  If you're outside the Top 5 brands in that league, the money is pushing diminishing returns.  If you're a program that was used to winning 8-10 games on a regular basis and now you're hovering from 4-7 wins a year depending on how the schedule shakes out, cashing big checks isn't going to keep your fans engaged.

You nailed it- this doesn't get talked about enough.  The lower and mid-tier BIG schools don't want to lose relevance and are afraid their games will end up on streaming if too many teams are added.

Along with money, lack of recruiting and distance, this was a major reason that the PNW weren't invited to join, and why I don't think they ever will be.

The non-FL ACC schools aren't as threatening in FB, and bring more to the table in terms of money and recruiting, so I think they'll have support.

FSU and possibly Miami would knock the non-top tier BIG teams down a notch, but the benefits of having more strong FB brands and being in FL would be worth it for the entire conference.

I don't see that 

[Hurtlocker 2,213]

31 minutes ago, Hurtlocker said:

The only way I can see them doing that is the same way the B1G did it.   The current T1 deal the Mouse bought from CBS is for the top 16 games on ABC at any window the Mouse wants (not just the 3:30 eastern slot).   They'd have to add 32 more T1 games, basically playing the SEC on ABC in the noon/3:30/Prime spots and valuing every game the same as they valued it for the first deal.   That adds $600m/year.

Actually, I think i figured out their plan.   ABC doesn't need to give up all of its slots, it can go the NFL route and provide mirroring.    If one massive SEC game gets 5-6m eyeballs per week, they can start mirroring the SEC footprint.   You could put three games on ABC at the same time.   Let's say one is in Texas, one is in Alabama, and one is in Georgia/Florida.   Whichever they think is the biggest will get the national game, let's say the Bama one, and the other two will be mirrored: Texas/Arkansas/Oklahoma and Florida/Georgia/SC.   East mirror focuses around Atlanta, Central mirror revolves around Nashville, and the West is Houston.

If you got 5-6m out of the national, but 3m+ for the mirrors, you now doubled the audience for the same window with brands who can dominate regional viewership.  

May not get all the way there, but that change alone, which doesn't effect the other windows, could change that contract from $300m/year to $500-600/year.  

Edited April 20, 2023 by Hurtlocker

[hook me 2,103]

18 minutes ago, Hurtlocker said:

Actually, I think i figured out their plan.   ABC doesn't need to give up all of its slots, it can go the NFL route and provide mirroring.    If one massive SEC game gets 5-6m eyeballs per week, they can start mirroring the SEC footprint.   You could put three games on ABC at the same time.   Let's say one is in Texas, one is in Alabama, and one is in Georgia/Florida.   Whichever they think is the biggest will get the national game, let's say the Bama one, and the other two will be mirrored: Texas/Arkansas/Oklahoma and Florida/Georgia/SC.   East mirror focuses around Atlanta, Central mirror revolves around Nashville, and the West is Houston.

If you got 5-6m out of the national, but 3m+ for the mirrors, you now doubled the audience for the same window with brands who can dominate regional viewership.  

May not get all the way there, but that change alone, which doesn't effect the other windows, could change that contract from $300m/year to $500-600/year.  

[Hurtlocker 2,213]

1 hour ago, camel at sea said:

My impression has been that ESPN/FOX want to pull the PAC apart.  The Big 12 is the lucky beneficiary of that desire.  I think Yormark is getting a lot of credit for stuff happening - to his benefit - at the network level above him.  I'd guess that the networks (maybe through a 3rd party) are primarily behind the propaganda war, too.

There's this narrative that the PAC could have just opted to extend its current deal with ESPN/FOX if it had approached things differently, but my impression is that FOX wanted no part of that.  They jumped out of the renegotiation with the PAC as soon as possible and never seriously returned.  Klatt was one of the first people to float the 4C to Big 12 idea.  ESPN, for their part, has stayed in talks but has been lowballing the PAC since the outset, too.  They just want west coast teams for the late TV window.  They don't need an entire conference just for that.  They can meet those needs with just a few schools moved to the Big 12.

Well the Pac did get the B12's offer, but thought it was lowball, like they expected B1G numbers or something.   Then the B12 took it.

That Utah article pointed it out very well.   If you look at the top 20 games the Pac 12 has had in the past three years, 17 involved Oregon.   All networks want is one game/week - whoever plays Oregon.

[USC Traveler 488]

1 hour ago, camel at sea said:

My impression has been that ESPN/FOX want to pull the PAC apart.  The Big 12 is the lucky beneficiary of that desire.  I think Yormark is getting a lot of credit for stuff happening - to his benefit - at the network level above him.  I'd guess that the networks (maybe through a 3rd party) are primarily behind the propaganda war, too.

There's this narrative that the PAC could have just opted to extend its current deal with ESPN/FOX if it had approached things differently, but my impression is that FOX wanted no part of that.  They jumped out of the renegotiation with the PAC as soon as possible and never seriously returned.  Klatt was one of the first people to float the 4C to Big 12 idea.  ESPN, for their part, has stayed in talks but has been lowballing the PAC since the outset, too.  They just want west coast teams for the late TV window.  They don't need an entire conference just for that.  They can meet those needs with just a few schools moved to the Big 12.

Yes, once Fox had USC and UCLA in the BIG, they clearly had no desire for PAC content.  No doubt about that.

I agree that it's the networks that are ultimately driving this, but Yormark is doing his part.  He's skillfully ridden the wave and is working hand in glove with them (especially ESPN).  

Once ESPN got the SEC 3:30ET game for 2024, with the LA schools joining the BIG that year, it was clear that ESPN would be motivated to overpay the B12 by some amount on the new deal that would make the B12 agree to let UT and OU leave with a reasonable settlement.  It's just good business, and Yormark is smart enough to see the bigger picture.

But if you flip things around and Klownkoff was running the B12, I have my doubts about things working out so smoothly  He's shown himself to be nothing but an empty suit at every step of the way- a deadly mix of stupidity and arrogance- just like his predecessor.  His dealings with ESPN for the PAC rights show a guy who simply doesn't have a clue, which fits right in with everything else he's done since day one.  So I do think conference leadership matters.

My bet is that Yormark is the media's source for the propaganda, but that he's the frontman working in lockstep with ESPN and Fox.  This is straight out of ESPN's playbook after the Big East opted to take their rights to market instead of re-upping with ESPN.  ESPN lowballed them and eventually caused an exodus of football schools.  

ESPN always wants plausible deniability whenever realignment is discussed, so I agree with you that they're doing it through a third party, and Yormark/B12 is the third party that makes the most sense.  They're the most motivated to make this happen, and it's easy for Yormmark/B12 ADs to talk to guys like Dodds and McMurphy as part of the normal course of business.

How many clicks has Dodds been generating for the last year with his stories ?  This has been a gold mine for his business, and having Yormmark/B12 ADs as his sources give him credible cover.

 

 

[DanTheHorn 4,966]

14 hours ago, Hurtlocker said:

If you're a media deal nerd or looking to become an internet board expert in short order, this is one of the best looks at the B12/P10 I've seen yet.

Why the PAC10 is Struggling to Make a Media Deal

It's from the Utah ESPN radio affiliate and dives into the numbers.   So many numbers, its long, very long.  I'm not even going to quote it, that is how long it is.  Very much worth a read though.    

TLDR:  The new Big 12 has grown eyeballs by more than 30% while the Pac is losing them.   This also syncs with something said when the Big 12 signed their new deal, which was the teams not named Texas and OU had increased their viewership over the past several years by nearly 40%.   That now syncs with this article and why one got signed without losing money and the other is struggling.

Did not read the whole thing but I read enough and in summary BIG12 TV markets are smaller but the college sports markets are actually almost equal and growing while the PAC college sports markets are shrinking. So what do you do with inventory that has a shrinking market? If I am a TV partner that is invested in college sports, I encourage the PAC to break up by having them join the BIG12 or B1G. By doing so I add viewers from college sports hungry areas just because of the association plus I retain the current west college sports markets with new found interests.

 

[Hurtlocker 2,213]

45 minutes ago, USC Traveler said:

Once ESPN got the SEC 3:30ET game for 2024, with the LA schools joining the BIG that year, it was clear that ESPN would be motivated to overpay the B12 by some amount on the new deal that would make the B12 agree to let UT and OU leave with a reasonable settlement.  It's just good business, and Yormark is smart enough to see the bigger picture.

I wouldn't say they over paid.   The Big 12 was set to receive a massive raise in 2025, because it was the first time they would have been able to take all of their content out to bid at the same time.  Previously it was a mishmash of 2 or 3 deals of too long of length stretching back decades, including their T1 which was worse than the old CBS payment for the SEC.   If the 10 stayed together it likely would have paid $50-57m/each, or about a $500-600m deal.

What they were able to do by restructuring is just continue the deal they had, but without Texas/OU, by adding more content.  Where they got a slight boost is, since the start of the last contract, the teams not named Texas/Oklahoma had increased their viewership against each other by 30+%.   Additionally, the basketball product has been so good for the past 5 years that they were able to gain a premium on it by selling some to Fox.  Those two pieces probably gave them a 15-20% increase over the initial contract's baseline.

One way or another though, this was a continuation the current deal's structure (e.g. the same budgeted yearly increase) so no one lost money.  However, they lost out on the big bump.  

Edited April 20, 2023 by Hurtlocker

[Crockett 494]

15 hours ago, Hurtlocker said:

If you're a media deal nerd or looking to become an internet board expert in short order, this is one of the best looks at the B12/P10 I've seen yet.

Why the PAC10 is Struggling to Make a Media Deal

It's from the Utah ESPN radio affiliate and dives into the numbers.   So many numbers, its long, very long.  I'm not even going to quote it, that is how long it is.  Very much worth a read though.    

TLDR:  The new Big 12 has grown eyeballs by more than 30% while the Pac is losing them.   This also syncs with something said when the Big 12 signed their new deal, which was the teams not named Texas and OU had increased their viewership over the past several years by nearly 40%.   That now syncs with this article and why one got signed without losing money and the other is struggling.

BTW, this is the Utah County (home of BYU) ESPN Radio affiliate. It's not only BYU coverage, but mostly. The author is a BYU guy. 

[BurntOrange&White 40,044]

Just now, Crockett said:

BTW, this is the Utah County (home of BYU) ESPN Radio affiliate. It's not only BYU coverage, but mostly. The author is a BYU guy. 

And? The story is littered with facts

[Sandbagging Steve 982]

2 hours ago, USC Traveler said:

Yes, once Fox had USC and UCLA in the BIG, they clearly had no desire for PAC content.  No doubt about that.

I agree that it's the networks that are ultimately driving this, but Yormark is doing his part.  He's skillfully ridden the wave and is working hand in glove with them (especially ESPN).  

Once ESPN got the SEC 3:30ET game for 2024, with the LA schools joining the BIG that year, it was clear that ESPN would be motivated to overpay the B12 by some amount on the new deal that would make the B12 agree to let UT and OU leave with a reasonable settlement.  It's just good business, and Yormark is smart enough to see the bigger picture.

But if you flip things around and Klownkoff was running the B12, I have my doubts about things working out so smoothly  He's shown himself to be nothing but an empty suit at every step of the way- a deadly mix of stupidity and arrogance- just like his predecessor.  His dealings with ESPN for the PAC rights show a guy who simply doesn't have a clue, which fits right in with everything else he's done since day one.  So I do think conference leadership matters.

My bet is that Yormark is the media's source for the propaganda, but that he's the frontman working in lockstep with ESPN and Fox.  This is straight out of ESPN's playbook after the Big East opted to take their rights to market instead of re-upping with ESPN.  ESPN lowballed them and eventually caused an exodus of football schools.  

ESPN always wants plausible deniability whenever realignment is discussed, so I agree with you that they're doing it through a third party, and Yormark/B12 is the third party that makes the most sense.  They're the most motivated to make this happen, and it's easy for Yormmark/B12 ADs to talk to guys like Dodds and McMurphy as part of the normal course of business.

How many clicks has Dodds been generating for the last year with his stories ?  This has been a gold mine for his business, and having Yormmark/B12 ADs as his sources give him credible cover.

 

 

Dodds and McMurphy have not been busted reporting half-truths and manipulated statistics like the reporters out West. Actual half-truths that can be looked up and proven wrong. Over and over again for a year. That should tell you who has more reliability. Left Coast sports media has covered this the same way as a certain news station that made a settlement the other day. People on message boards all across America are rolling in laughter, They are the butt of the joke.

[Sandbagging Steve 982]

4 hours ago, USC Traveler said:

You nailed it- this doesn't get talked about enough.  The lower and mid-tier BIG schools don't want to lose relevance and are afraid their games will end up on streaming if too many teams are added.

Along with money, lack of recruiting and distance, this was a major reason that the PNW weren't invited to join, and why I don't think they ever will be.

The non-FL ACC schools aren't as threatening in FB, and bring more to the table in terms of money and recruiting, so I think they'll have support.

FSU and possibly Miami would knock the non-top tier BIG teams down a notch, but the benefits of having more strong FB brands and being in FL would be worth it for the entire conference.

I don't see that 

Iowa, Rutgers, Purdue, Indiana, etc. will have very little say in the future of the B1G. They will do as they're told. The days of the smaller schools ruling conferences are over. They will do what is best for the conference or the Bluebloods will break away and make their own league.

[camel at sea 589]

2 hours ago, BurntOrange&White said:

And? The story is littered with facts

The most noteworthy thing about this coming from a BYU guy, instead of a Utah guy, is that the article is not likely a Utah-led effort to begin preparing the way for their fans to accept a change of conference scenery.  If/when Utah decides internally that the PAC isn't going to work, you'll start seeing Utah-led media efforts to push their fans toward acceptance.  

It's a good article in any case.  A lot of it has been said on this board for years, but the author did a nice job compiling everything.  

[Crockett 494]

54 minutes ago, camel at sea said:

The most noteworthy thing about this coming from a BYU guy, instead of a Utah guy, is that the article is not likely a Utah-led effort to begin preparing the way for their fans to accept a change of conference scenery.  If/when Utah decides internally that the PAC isn't going to work, you'll start seeing Utah-led media efforts to push their fans toward acceptance.  

It's a good article in any case.  A lot of it has been said on this board for years, but the author did a nice job compiling everything.  

Exactly, thank you.

[CustersDoctor 584]

19 hours ago, Hurtlocker said:

If you're a media deal nerd or looking to become an internet board expert in short order, this is one of the best looks at the B12/P10 I've seen yet.

Why the PAC10 is Struggling to Make a Media Deal

It's from the Utah ESPN radio affiliate and dives into the numbers.   So many numbers, its long, very long.  I'm not even going to quote it, that is how long it is.  Very much worth a read though.    

TLDR:  The new Big 12 has grown eyeballs by more than 30% while the Pac is losing them.   This also syncs with something said when the Big 12 signed their new deal, which was the teams not named Texas and OU had increased their viewership over the past several years by nearly 40%.   That now syncs with this article and why one got signed without losing money and the other is struggling.

This is outstanding information. My biggest take away is how the PAC10 already has an exposure problem. Over the last five years the BIG12 has had 84 rated games while the PAC12 has had 59. That's FIVE fewer rated games a season. Also on the surface the PAC12 boasts that their viewership is better than the BIG12 (1.5MIL average per game vs 1mil average per game) But the reason for this is in the fewer games that get broadcast. So the Big12s worst potential ratings games are getting picked up and broadcast, the worst potential games for the PAC12 did not get broadcast therefore those ratings turds didn't crash their average rating.

[Gidnik 3,285]

 

[lemonandaturd 4,285]

PAC 12 to Kaloopy for lingerie football.    

[USC Traveler 488]

4 hours ago, Sandbagging Steve said:

Dodds and McMurphy have not been busted reporting half-truths and manipulated statistics like the reporters out West. Actual half-truths that can be looked up and proven wrong. Over and over again for a year. That should tell you who has more reliability. Left Coast sports media has covered this the same way as a certain news station that made a settlement the other day. People on message boards all across America are rolling in laughter, They are the butt of the joke.

No doubt that the pro-PAC media types have lost whatever credibility they once had. (Canzano never had any to begin with, so it’s just par for the course.). I wasn’t implying anything positive about the PAC-pumpers.

When I talk about the B12’s propaganda campaign, I’m not using it in a negative way.  I think it’s been very smart and highly effective to constantly remind the Four Corners that UW and UO would go to the BIG at the drop of a hat and that the other 4C admins are talking to the B12.

That keeps everyone on edge, and will help motivate UA and CU to make the move so that they don’t get left out in the cold at some point.

 

[TKthunder2 4,997]

The PAC12 only had 2 top 5 conference games last year (omitting USC v UCLA) both were the 4th most watched games of the week. 1 of those featured an LA school (USC/Utah) and the other was Oregon/Washington and BOTH were over the air on FOX.

note the Big 12 (omitting RRSO) had 4 top 5 conference games, 2 that did not include UT/OU (TCU/ISU and OSU/KSU) and 2 that included Texas.  The ACC had 3 all Clemson games.

Other than those 2, the PAC’s top rated game of the week included 2 #7 games (both featured LA schools and both were on FOX), 3 #8 games (1 LA, 1 on ABC-UO/OSU), and 3 #9 games (2 LA, 1 on FOX). And anything NOT on OTA on FOX/ABC was on ESPN late night window where they were the only P5 game and got a bonus bump which now is in competition with the Big 12 (Baylor/BYU was the third highest game in the late kick window this year).

Take away their exclusive P5 late night window, FOX OTA, and the LA schools and they have no chance. This is their last big time contract. If they can’t get a good deal now they never will and in 10 years they’ll be significantly behind not just the SEC/B1G but also the B12/ACC.

[USC Traveler 488]

25 minutes ago, TKthunder2 said:

The PAC12 only had 2 top 5 conference games last year (omitting USC v UCLA) both were the 4th most watched games of the week. 1 of those featured an LA school (USC/Utah) and the other was Oregon/Washington and BOTH were over the air on FOX.

note the Big 12 (omitting RRSO) had 4 top 5 conference games, 2 that did not include UT/OU (TCU/ISU and OSU/KSU) and 2 that included Texas.  The ACC had 3 all Clemson games.

Other than those 2, the PAC’s top rated game of the week included 2 #7 games (both featured LA schools and both were on FOX), 3 #8 games (1 LA, 1 on ABC-UO/OSU), and 3 #9 games (2 LA, 1 on FOX). And anything NOT on OTA on FOX/ABC was on ESPN late night window where they were the only P5 game and got a bonus bump which now is in competition with the Big 12 (Baylor/BYU was the third highest game in the late kick window this year).

Take away their exclusive P5 late night window, FOX OTA, and the LA schools and they have no chance. This is their last big time contract. If they can’t get a good deal now they never will and in 10 years they’ll be significantly behind not just the SEC/B1G but also the B12/ACC.

Great stuff sir.  Well done.

Those kind of facts are just brutal for the PAC.