Realignment talk not going away

[Hurtlocker 2213]

5 hours ago, SimonBolivar said:

We'll see

This same guy also said the current Pac deal is a mix of CBS Prime and ESPN Latenight, along with streaming.  Still going to be hard to get to $300m with only two linear a week, at $7m a game and a CCG that maxes out around $200m.   They'd need $100m for the rest.

[bullet 1597]

7 hours ago, gatormarc said:

That doesn't look right. There are usually 30-40 5 stars per year, not total over an 11 year period.

Are you looking at just the 2023 recruiting class?

Yes.

2022 looked pretty similar.

There was one year, 2021, maybe, where UGA, Alabama and A&M had about half the 5 stars themselves.  (Hence Saban's complaint about A&M buying players also).

[gatormarc 911]

7 minutes ago, bullet said:

Yes.

2022 looked pretty similar.

There was one year, 2021, maybe, where UGA, Alabama and A&M had about half the 5 stars themselves.  (Hence Saban's complaint about A&M buying players also).

But 1 year of data is significantly different than 11 years of data.

Seems odd to dismiss his 11 years collection based on 1 class.

That said, I think a better judge is blue chip ratio rather than just 5 stars.

[bullet 1597]

7 hours ago, gatormarc said:

But 1 year of data is significantly different than 11 years of data.

Seems odd to dismiss his 11 years collection based on 1 class.

That said, I think a better judge is blue chip ratio rather than just 5 stars.

The pattern is pretty much the same.  The top programs get the 5 stars.  Purdue, Washington St., North Carolina St., Kentucky and Oklahoma St. don't.

So its a stupid article.

[TKthunder2 4992]

37 minutes ago, bullet said:

The pattern is pretty much the same.  The top programs get the 5 stars.  Purdue, Washington St., North Carolina St., Kentucky and Oklahoma St. don't.

So its a stupid article.

Yep.

The Big12 is losing it’s A teams after this year and lost its B teams years ago.

The PAC12 is losing its A teams and it’s B teams are will leave as soon as they can.

The ACC still has it’s A and B teams.

So when you look at the talent disparity, of course the conference that still has its bread winners and top supporting cast looks the best on paper, but that’s part of the appeal of the Big 12.

They are attractive because they are stable. Despite their lack of elite recruits, they will still put people in the NFL.

Chaos is coming for the PAC12/ACC it’s only a matter of when. Those A&B teams will not remain content while their peer groups are lapping them in money and exposure.

The Big 12 just has to sit, and wait.

[Gidnik 3284]

So we know this guy is full of shit but what about the Oregon guy?

 

[Gidnik 3284]

https://www.on3.com/boards/threads/potential-big12-pac12-news.954176/

Anyone have an on3 account?

['stache 21824]

I just don’t see Colorado, or any of them really, leaving until UO and UW make a move. They want to be affiliated with the west coast. They all need to see the actual media offer too.

[gatormarc 911]

7 hours ago, bullet said:

The pattern is pretty much the same.  The top programs get the 5 stars.  Purdue, Washington St., North Carolina St., Kentucky and Oklahoma St. don't.

So its a stupid article.

But that's not correct. If you look back more than one season, you see several non-top programs that have grabbed a 5 star or two.

I looked back through 2015 (since that's all 247 is showing right now) and these arguably non-top programs all signed at least 1 5 star:

Kentucky, South Carolina, Ole Miss, Miss St, Iowa, Maryland, Northwestern, Purdue, North Carolina, Stanford, Cal

During that time, I only found 1 non-OUT Big12 school that signed a 5 star.

Baylor - 2015

2 if you count Houston in 2016.

Yes, you are correct in that the power programs are mopping up most of the 5 stars, but it ignores his larger point that the ratio was among the worst of the major conferences in the Big 12.

Compared to the SEC where Vanderbilt is the only SEC program that didn't sign a 5 star in the 9 classes I looked at.

[TKthunder2 4992]

15 minutes ago, gatormarc said:

Kentucky, South Carolina, Ole Miss, Miss St, Iowa, Maryland, Northwestern, Purdue, North Carolina, Stanford, Cal

So…SEC, B1G, and elite academic institutions (all of which are realistic B1G candidates).

I don’t think this proves the point you think it proves.

[gatormarc 911]

3 minutes ago, TKthunder2 said:

So…SEC, B1G, and elite academic institutions (all of which are realistic B1G candidates).

I don’t think this proves the point you think it proves.

And here I thought we were talking about Ubben's article about how no one besides OUT was pulling in 5 stars in the Big 12.

[BurntOrange&White 39934]

26 minutes ago, gatormarc said:

But that's not correct. If you look back more than one season, you see several non-top programs that have grabbed a 5 star or two.

I looked back through 2015 (since that's all 247 is showing right now) and these arguably non-top programs all signed at least 1 5 star:

Kentucky, South Carolina, Ole Miss, Miss St, Iowa, Maryland, Northwestern, Purdue, North Carolina, Stanford, Cal

During that time, I only found 1 non-OUT Big12 school that signed a 5 star.

Baylor - 2015

2 if you count Houston in 2016.

Yes, you are correct in that the power programs are mopping up most of the 5 stars, but it ignores his larger point that the ratio was among the worst of the major conferences in the Big 12.

Compared to the SEC where Vanderbilt is the only SEC program that didn't sign a 5 star in the 9 classes I looked at.

Now dig into those schools you singled out and see where the recruit is from, is the recruit a legacy? Etc.  You're trying to look at exceptions to fit your narrative. 

[TKthunder2 4992]

9 minutes ago, gatormarc said:

And here I thought we were talking about Ubben's article about how no one besides OUT was pulling in 5 stars in the Big 12.

You think Walker Little would still commit to Stanford in a PAC12-USC/UCLA. Similar to Q Johnson committing to TCU in a Big 12 without UT/OU. Can it still happen…sure, but will it be a regular occurrence? Nope.

[gatormarc 911]

1 minute ago, BurntOrange&White said:

Now dig into those schools you singled out and see where the recruit is from, is the recruit a legacy? Etc.  You're trying to look at exceptions to fit your narrative. 

There are no exceptions to fit the narrative.

The fact is outside of OUT, only one 1 5 star has gone to a Big 12 school in that timeframe (1.5 if we want to give Houston partial credit)

No other conference has that bad of a gap. Period.

The next closest would be the ACC because only 4 (4.5 with Notre Dame) programs have pulled in 5 stars in the years I looked at.

Now the clear argument against that is that Blue Chip ratio may be a more important stat to look at especially thanks to the transfer portal, but that's different than dismissing the 5 star gap.

 

[BurntOrange&White 39934]

5 minutes ago, TKthunder2 said:

You think Walker Little would still commit to Stanford in a PAC12-USC/UCLA. Similar to Q Johnson committing to TCU in a Big 12 without UT/OU. Can it still happen…sure, but will it be a regular occurrence? Nope.

Bingo, SEC already gets 1/2 to 2/3's of the 5 stars....moving forward I'd wager the SEC/BIG gets about 3/4 of the 5 stars and a school like Clemson and then maybe 1-2 others land them as well. The overwhelming majority will funnel to BIG/SEC.

I'd bet $100 that in the 2025 draft the big 12 has more players drafted than the PAC

Edited May 9, 2023 by BurntOrange&White

[gatormarc 911]

2 minutes ago, TKthunder2 said:

You think Walker Little would still commit to Stanford in a PAC12-USC/UCLA. Similar to Q Johnson committing to TCU in a Big 12 without UT/OU. Can it still happen…sure, but will it be a regular occurrence? Nope.

Does this mean we've all accepted the facts of the discussion since you've moved on to hypotheticals?

 

[SimonBolivar 10958]

8 minutes ago, TKthunder2 said:

You think Walker Little would still commit to Stanford in a PAC12-USC/UCLA. Similar to Q Johnson committing to TCU in a Big 12 without UT/OU. Can it still happen…sure, but will it be a regular occurrence? Nope.

I feel like Stanford is an exception relative to other Pac schools due to their reputation as arguably the best school or one of the best schools on the planet.

[BurntOrange&White 39934]

2023 NFL Draft Players Drafted:

Big 12 - 30
PAC- 27

If you remove OU/Texas, USC/UCLA it looks like this:

Big 12 - 20
PAC - 19

1st Rounders:
Big 12 - 3
PAC - 2

So with two less members the Big 12 still outperformed the PAC.

 

Now add in future teams:
Big 12 - 30
PAC - 19
 

[gatormarc 911]

13 minutes ago, BurntOrange&White said:

Bingo, SEC already gets 1/2 to 2/3's of the 5 stars....moving forward I'd wager the SEC/BIG gets about 3/4 of the 5 stars and a school like Clemson and the maybe 1-2 others land them as well. The overwhelming majority will funnel to BIG/SEC

I think we're discussing different points here.

I'm referring to bullet's comment that the article is stupid because only 8 programs or so get anyone. I was pointing out that the only conference where that is the case is the Big 12. Every other conference is less extreme with relation to 5 stars (not blue chips, not draft picks).

You seem to be agreeing with me because you recognize more than just 8 or so programs, but also the rest of the B1G/SEC.

Edited May 9, 2023 by gatormarc

[billfromlaketravis 11519]

Who is OUT?

[gatormarc 911]

I wanted to edit above but ran out of time. I don't think we're really disagreeing here.

I'm just pointing out that Ubben was right in that the Big12 outside of OUT has almost done the impossible of having the lesser programs grab a random 5 star or two over the years. 

[gatormarc 911]

2 minutes ago, billfromlaketravis said:

Who is OUT?

Sorry. At least in SEC circles, OUT is a portmanteau for OU and UT.

I guess it's not common here.

Edited May 9, 2023 by gatormarc

[BurntOrange&White 39934]

35 minutes ago, gatormarc said:

I think we're discussing different points here.

I'm referring to bullet's comment that the article is stupid because only 8 programs or so get anyone. I was pointing out that the only conference where that is the case is the Big 12. Every other conference is less extreme with relation to 5 stars (not blue chips, not draft picks).

You seem to be agreeing with me because you recognize more than just 8 or so programs, but also the rest of the B1G/SEC.

Teams with double digit 5 star talent by year:

2023 - No Data Yet

2022 - 5(Bama, Georgia, Ohio St, A&M, Clemson)

2021 - 4(Bama, Georgia, Ohio St, Clemson)

2020 - 4( Georgia, Bama, Ohio St, Clemson)

2019 - 3(Bama, Ohio St, Georgia)

2018 - 3(Ohio St, Bama, Georgia)

 

Essentially majority of the 5 star talent resides on just a handful of teams as depicted above by total team talent on 247.
 

Teams with 5+ 5 star talent by year(Not listing 2023 as there is no data yet, see above).
 

2022 - 3(Texas, Oregon, LSU)

2021 - 5(LSU, Oklahoma, Florida, A&M, Texas)

2020 - 4(LSU, Oklahoma, USC, Tennessee)

2019 - 5(USC, LSU, Florida St, Oklahoma, Clemson)

2018 - 4(USC, Florida St, Clemson, UCLA)

 

 

Total teams with 5+ 5 stars on roster:

2022 - 8

2021 - 9

2020 - 8

2019 - 8

2018 - 7

 

 

So any given year you're loooking at roughly 8 or so teams +/- 1 that has 5 or more 5 stars on the roster. More importantly as you can see above is you see a lot of the same teams names listed.


Listings by team:

5 - Bama, Georgia, Ohio St, Clemson

4 - LSU

3 - Oklahoma, USC

2 - A&M, Texas, Florida St

1 - Tennessee, Oregon, Florida, UCLA

 

14 Unique teams over a 5 year span

Edited May 9, 2023 by BurntOrange&White

[billfromlaketravis 11519]

16 minutes ago, gatormarc said:

Sorry. At least in SEC circles, OUT is a portmanteau for OU and UT.

I guess it's not common here.

Gross. And I hope uncommon. 

[BurntOrange&White 39934]

17 minutes ago, gatormarc said:

Sorry. At least in SEC circles, OUT is a portmanteau for OU and UT.

I guess it's not common here.

This sounds like some Aggie shit. 

[Al_4_ISU 12470]

Texas and OU are referred to as OUT everywhere else on the internet, like USCLA.  It's not really a slight, it's just shorthand for schools that are essentially permanently coupled for athletics.

No one's said it here before because, well, they know what the response will be.

Edited May 9, 2023 by Al_4_ISU

[gatormarc 911]

2 minutes ago, Al_4_ISU said:

No one's said it here before because, well, they know what the response will be.

Oops.

[Texas Wahoo 3402]

47 minutes ago, BurntOrange&White said:

2023 NFL Draft Players Drafted:

Big 12 - 30
PAC- 27

If you remove OU/Texas, USC/UCLA it looks like this:

Big 12 - 20
PAC - 19

1st Rounders:
Big 12 - 3
PAC - 2

So with two less members the Big 12 still outperformed the PAC.

 

Now add in future teams:
Big 12 - 30
PAC - 19
 

This has the same problem of only taking one year into account - a year that happens to have been the best year for the Big 12 in a long time and one that is unlikely to be repeated.  If you take 2022, for example, The Big 12 had 1 first rounder if you count Cincinnati, while the Pac 12 had 3 (none from UCLA/USC) and the ACC had 4 (from BC, Pitt, FSU, NC State).

[Al_4_ISU 12470]

6 minutes ago, gatormarc said:

Oops.

Edited May 9, 2023 by Al_4_ISU

[BurntOrange&White 39934]

2 minutes ago, Texas Wahoo said:

This has the same problem of only taking one year into account - a year that happens to have been the best year for the Big 12 in a long time and one that is unlikely to be repeated.  If you take 2022, for example, The Big 12 had 1 first rounder if you count Cincinnati, while the Pac 12 had 3 (none from UCLA/USC) and the ACC had 4 (from BC, Pitt, FSU, NC State).

Landscape changes so much next year that I think you'll have to wait 3-5 years to get the data from recruiting and draft. Past examples won't be the best metric 

Edited May 9, 2023 by BurntOrange&White

[billfromlaketravis 11519]

I could see TCU landing a 5 star QB here and there. They have the nicest house on the block now, and a good offensive system to sell. I think they’ll continue to thrive in the portal. 
 

For the sake of the conversation, let’s say Colorado moves to the Big 12. Deion will land 5 stars. Conference affiliation really doesn’t matter, Deion matters. 

The rest of Big 12 will be in a dogfight in the portal for lower division guys looking to move up and SEC/Big Ten guys looking for more playing time. I’m pretty ignorant to the conference’s postgraduate programs, so I’m not sure if that’ll be a draw for certain schools. 

Edited May 9, 2023 by billfromlaketravis

[Crockett 491]

Interesting comments on B12 vs W10 from Brock Huard: link. 

“I was in Arizona on Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday. I got to see Kyle [Whittingham] and his wife on Monday night at dinner,” said Huard to the KSL Sports Zone’s Hans & Scotty G. “I got to mingle with a lot of the coaches and the ADs and the Commissioner (George Kliavkoff), and then we did the same the next night with the Big 12. And I will tell you, you could not have had two different environments.

“The Tuesday night get-together and shindig with the Big 12, there was so much momentum, so much energy. You know, the first-year Commissioner (Brett Yormark) is a driver. He is an expansionist … aggressive, and you feel it. The conference is following that lead as they got their TV deal, and they’re not done.”

...

“On the flip side, the night before with the Pac-12, I’m not going to say survivalist, but it was not a lot of vision cast,” Huard said. “And how could it be with so much unknown in a media deal that, as one AD told me, ‘It’s close.’ But close is good for horseshoes and that’s not good in this business because we’ve got to get this deal done.”

Like the Big 12, the Pac-12 lost two bell cow brands when USC and UCLA announced they were going to the Big Ten. Since that day on June 30 last year, the Pac-12 has been working to secure its future. Huard, who is part of the Pac-12’s Football Alumni Council, shared his thoughts on the vision he heard from the league’s commissioner.

“Well, it was hard for me to listen to George Kliavkoff. I’ve been around him probably half a dozen times, and I sit on their alumni council. I’ve actually really appreciated much of his tone and tenor. I thought last year at Media Days he was bold, borderline gruff. … Showed his disappointment in USC and UCLA leaving, and all of that. I thought he handled it really well. This is the first time Monday night, where I’m like, ‘I don’t like the sound of that.’ I don’t need to hear about the water polo team and that you guys went 19-2 out of conference.”

“What they need to hear is the direction; what they need to hear is that we’re close to a deal. And now, obviously, [Kliavkoff] can’t do that publicly and you don’t negotiate through the public and all of that. My gut and my hunch, Scotty, is that there is a deal there. But it’s not at the numbers anywhere near the number they want. It’s likely a deal that’s going to be spliced amongst a bunch of the networks. I thought the company that I worked with at Fox was out. I got a sense over this week that they’re not because right now, I think a lot of these networks are feeling some blood in the water that there may be a number now that, at first, the Pac-12 scoffed at. But now may have to live with and it may be a number that doesn’t compete with the Big 12 but is a number that at least keeps this group together.”

[BurntOrange&White 39934]

 

 

[Al_4_ISU 12470]

Doesn't mean shit.  CU has done this 100 times.

['stache 21824]

10 minutes ago, Al_4_ISU said:

Doesn't mean shit.  CU has done this 100 times.

JFC, boards like that call executive sessions all the fucking time, usually about employees. These are massive systems with thousands of employees, these executive sessions are regular. Even if they mention that it's about athletics, it means nothing as far as decision making, it's usually about getting an update on confidential negotiations. No decision is being made until the PAC gets a full and final formal media offer.

[SimonBolivar 10958]

Just now, 'stache said:

No decision is being made until the PAC gets a full and final formal media offer.

 

 

 

[BurntOrange&White 39934]

19 minutes ago, Al_4_ISU said:

Doesn't mean shit.  CU has done this 100 times.

Yeah after looking more it sounds like it's related to some medical stuff at Arizona

8 minutes ago, 'stache said:

JFC, boards like that call executive sessions all the fucking time, usually about employees. These are massive systems with thousands of employees, these executive sessions are regular. Even if they mention that it's about athletics, it means nothing as far as decision making, it's usually about getting an update on confidential negotiations. No decision is being made until the PAC gets a full and final formal media offer.

You sound like a bitch.

[closetohumping 17453]

4 hours ago, Al_4_ISU said:

Texas and OU are referred to as OUT everywhere else on the internet, like USCLA.  It's not really a slight, it's just shorthand for schools that are essentially permanently coupled for athletics.

No one's said it here before because, well, they know what the response will be.

I like it

['stache 21824]

4 minutes ago, BurntOrange&White said:

Yeah after looking more it sounds like it's related to some medical stuff at Arizona

You sound like a bitch.

[Al_4_ISU 12470]

1 minute ago, closetohumping said:

I like it

Didn't see that one coming.

[Josef Pwag 1740]

6 minutes ago, Al_4_ISU said:

Didn't see that one coming.

[TKthunder2 4992]

5 minutes ago, Al_4_ISU said:

Didn't see that one coming.

Fuck your face hole Al with the cock knife from the movie Seven.

 (just trying to make sure you don’t get too comfortable)

[camel at sea 589]

49 minutes ago, billfromlaketravis said:

I could see TCU landing a 5 star QB here and there. They have the nicest house on the block now, and a good offensive system to sell. I think they’ll continue to thrive in the portal. 
 

For the sake of the conversation, let’s say Colorado moves to the Big 12. Deion will land 5 stars. Conference affiliation really doesn’t matter, Deion matters. 

The rest of Big 12 will be in a dogfight in the portal for lower division guys looking to move up and SEC/Big Ten guys looking for more playing time. I’m pretty ignorant to the conference’s postgraduate programs, so I’m not sure if that’ll be a draw for certain schools. 

Yep.  TCU just signed eight blue chippers in the '23 cycle.  The recruits all knew that Texas and OU are joining the SEC and they signed to play in Ft. Worth anyway.  Their portal class was full of SEC guys, too.  If they're at or near the top of the Big 12 going forward, they'll sign really good players.  Between the location, the facilities, NIL, and the recent history, Toad has a lot to sell.  Baylor will be similar when they get motivated to play the game more aggressively.  Deion will land 5 stars.  BYU will land the occasional 5 star Mormon.  The Big 12 move will be big for them in that respect.  

The Big 12's current membership has been successful in building solid programs through evals, development, and great schematics.  Those schools have been putting a good product on the field for years without great recruiting classes.  Realignment won't change much for them.  

[Mitch Cumsteen 18550]

33 minutes ago, camel at sea said:

Yep.  TCU just signed eight blue chippers in the '23 cycle.  The recruits all knew that Texas and OU are joining the SEC and they signed to play in Ft. Worth anyway.  Their portal class was full of SEC guys, too.  If they're at or near the top of the Big 12 going forward, they'll sign really good players.  Between the location, the facilities, NIL, and the recent history, Toad has a lot to sell.  Baylor will be similar when they get motivated to play the game more aggressively.  Deion will land 5 stars.  BYU will land the occasional 5 star Mormon.  The Big 12 move will be big for them in that respect.  

The Big 12's current membership has been successful in building solid programs through evals, development, and great schematics.  Those schools have been putting a good product on the field for years without great recruiting classes.  Realignment won't change much for them.  

I don't want to derail this... but TCU caught lightning in a bottle last year with an extremely talented senior laden roster that was recruited almost entirely by Fat Pat. They got every break imaginable to get to the championship game, as if they had a rabbit's foot broken off in their ass. They also got a big boost from trouncing OU and beating Texas. I know they've made hay in the portal and have been recruiting off of last season's momentum, but they lost their hot shot OC to Clemson and I don't see anything in Sonny Dykes coaching resume that says it is sustainable. 

[Texas Wahoo 3402]

 

[DanTheHorn 4936]

13 minutes ago, Texas Wahoo said:

 

Power 2

Enduring 3

Group of 5

Edited May 9, 2023 by DanTheHorn

[gatormarc 911]

With that innocent looking mustache, you'd never think Brett could be as spicy as he is.

[oSuJeff97 3435]

1 hour ago, gatormarc said:

With that innocent looking mustache, you'd never think Brett could be as spicy as he is.

He's an OSU alum. In addition to being devilishly handsome, we can be sneaky spicy.

['stache 21824]

1 minute ago, oSuJeff97 said:

He's an OSU alum. In addition to being devilishly handsome, we can be sneaky spicy.

And our wangs are enormous.

[hook me 2103]

1 hour ago, 'stache said:

And our wangs are enormous.

You know that based on personal research & experience or did your wife inform you?