Realignment talk not going away

[Hagbard Celine 10761]

all quiet on the western front....

72 hours to go

something has to break

we're down to the next-to-last scene of g/b/u

 

[Hurtlocker 2208]

It is Tuesday

[statsman 5425]

Oregon- they are much more of a taker than a sharer. Oregon (more importantly, Phil Knight) wants to win big, but has a poor recruiting base (the same as Oregon State’s). They are willing to pay for recruits, and they have to, because there are so few in Oregon. They don’t have a huge fanbase, so they don’t bring a large viewership. 
 
They recruited southern California, but that is harder with no games there. In the B12, they would recruit Texas hard (like everyone else with a foothold in this state). 
 
When you invite Oregon to your conference, you get a team with big ambitions, willing to bid up the price of your recruits and that doesn’t make a big positive impact on your media contract. 
 
Are they worth it?

[oSuJeff97 3435]

2 hours ago, statsman said:

When you invite Oregon to your conference, you get a team with big ambitions, willing to bid up the price of your recruits and that doesn’t make a big positive impact on your media contract. 
 
Are they worth it?

Are you sure about that part?

I thought Oregon had viewership that was in-line with bluebloods. They wouldn't add incremental value to the Big 12's media contract?

[Josef Pwag 1727]

2 hours ago, statsman said:

Oregon- they are much more of a taker than a sharer. Oregon (more importantly, Phil Knight) wants to win big, but has a poor recruiting base (the same as Oregon State’s). They are willing to pay for recruits, and they have to, because there are so few in Oregon. They don’t have a huge fanbase, so they don’t bring a large viewership. 
 
They recruited southern California, but that is harder with no games there. In the B12, they would recruit Texas hard (like everyone else with a foothold in this state). 
 
When you invite Oregon to your conference, you get a team with big ambitions, willing to bid up the price of your recruits and that doesn’t make a big positive impact on your media contract. 
 
Are they worth it?

This makes sense. What the fuck are you doing here? 

[TKthunder2 4980]

36 minutes ago, oSuJeff97 said:

Are you sure about that part?

I thought Oregon had viewership that was in-line with bluebloods. They wouldn't add incremental value to the Big 12's media contract?

According to 538 Oregon’s TV viewership was only behind ND, FSU, and Clemson for schools not in the Power2.

Oregon is very decisive, but the facts are the facts.

['stache 21773]

UO would unquestionably add value to the Big 12’s media contracts. They really want Big 10 though and will likely hold off for some years to try and get there.

[Jabberwocky 1666]

Some nerdy stuff from a Baylor writer.

[Hurtlocker 2208]

3 hours ago, statsman said:

Oregon- they are much more of a taker than a sharer. Oregon (more importantly, Phil Knight) wants to win big, but has a poor recruiting base (the same as Oregon State’s). They are willing to pay for recruits, and they have to, because there are so few in Oregon. They don’t have a huge fanbase, so they don’t bring a large viewership. 
 
They recruited southern California, but that is harder with no games there. In the B12, they would recruit Texas hard (like everyone else with a foothold in this state). 
 
When you invite Oregon to your conference, you get a team with big ambitions, willing to bid up the price of your recruits and that doesn’t make a big positive impact on your media contract. 
 
Are they worth it?

Oregon has the biggest viewership of the remaining Pac, followed by Washington.   Those two are clearly the best brands left in the Pac, but the problem is they aren't that much better, they're just a bit better.

That's kind of the problem with the remaining teams.   None move the Big two needle, some move the B12/ACC needle, some break even to those two, and some are worse.   My napkin valuation would be kind of like:

Move B12/ACC - $40-50m: Oregon, FSU, Clemson, Washington

Break-even B12/ACC - 30-40m: UNC, Miami, Arizona, Colorado, Utah, ASU

Drain - 20-30m: Cal, Washington State, Oregon State, Stanford

So Oregon/Washington will make more in the B12 than the Pac12 because the current bar is higher, but we're not talking massive amounts.   Like the B12 would pay out $35-37m with them.   The B1G would lose money to bring them in though, and that's the bind they find themselves.

As for recruiting, its not a localized as it once was.   The teams that win will get the good kids, period.   Alabama and Ohio State will grab kids out of Texas still, Oregon can too.  They'll also still be able to recruit SoCal, even if it is harder.   IF they keep winning and have good visibility.   Lose those though and it will dry up.

[statsman 5425]

WRT Oregon ratings- from 2000- 2022, Oregon has the ninth best win %. (For comparison, USC is 12th and Texas 13th). 
 
From 1960-1999, Oregon is 67th. (Texas is 6th and USC is 10th). 
 
I have doubts about Oregon’s fundamental fan interest. 

[PilotsError 2282]

If that info you posted is supposed to be negative regarding Oregon, I’m not sure what to say…

your crusade to invalidate Oregon is interesting. 

[BurntOrange&White 39655]

16 minutes ago, statsman said:

WRT Oregon ratings- from 2000- 2022, Oregon has the ninth best win %. (For comparison, USC is 12th and Texas 13th). 
 
From 1960-1999, Oregon is 67th. (Texas is 6th and USC is 10th). 
 
I have doubts about Oregon’s fundamental fan interest. 

Do from about the time Jordan joined Nike and Nike exploded forward and compare. That relationship as well as their TV numbers will always make them fundamentally part of college football and have fan interest.

[Jabberwocky 1666]

3 minutes ago, PilotsError said:

If that info you posted is supposed to be negative regarding Oregon, I’m not sure what to say…

your crusade to invalidate Oregon is interesting. 

I think the crux of the issue is that Oregon is not truly a major brand in cfb. I personally have no real interest in them. They have a major donor who has temporarily boosted their recruiting ability and popularity through uniform and facility upgrades, but their fanbase profile is largely constrained going into the future.

In short, they are a flash in the pan.

[DFW Horn 6118]

43 minutes ago, Jabberwocky said:

I think the crux of the issue is that Oregon is not truly a major brand in cfb. I personally have no real interest in them. They have a major donor who has temporarily boosted their recruiting ability and popularity through uniform and facility upgrades, but their fanbase profile is largely constrained going into the future.

In short, they are a flash in the pan.

...and what happens when Uncle Phil passes away?

Has he set up a multi-million dollar trust for UO that will sustain them in perpetuity?

[statsman 5425]

1 minute ago, DFW Horn said:

...and what happens when Uncle Phil passes away?

Has he set up a multi-million dollar trust for UO that will sustain them in perpetuity?

It will take more than millions

[TKthunder2 4980]

[66BUFF 2554]

1 hour ago, statsman said:

WRT Oregon ratings- from 2000- 2022, Oregon has the ninth best win %. (For comparison, USC is 12th and Texas 13th). 
 
From 1960-1999, Oregon is 67th. (Texas is 6th and USC is 10th). 
 
I have doubts about Oregon’s fundamental fan interest. 

Source?  

[camel at sea 589]

It will take a couple decades of neglect for Oregon to fall behind in the facilities arms race.  Phil Knight put them in a position where all they need to do is maintain and they've got other big donors (even if none of them are on Phil Knight's level.)  They're arguably the top brand in the PAC NW.  They're probably the top brand in CFB without a title (bigger than some who do have a title.)  They're Top 10 in win % nationally over the last 30 years.  They've won under multiple HC's.  

I think some of you guys are working a little too hard to return their program to the 70s and 80s.    

 

 

[Jabberwocky 1666]

16 minutes ago, camel at sea said:

It will take a couple decades of neglect for Oregon to fall behind in the facilities arms race.  Phil Knight put them in a position where all they need to do is maintain and they've got other big donors (even if none of them are on Phil Knight's level.)  They're arguably the top brand in the PAC NW.  They're probably the top brand in CFB without a title (bigger than some who do have a title.)  They're Top 10 in win % nationally over the last 30 years.  They've won under multiple HC's.  

I think some of you guys are working a little too hard to return their program to the 70s and 80s.    

 

 

They are essentially Oklahoma State with a much bigger lottery payday. Those uniforms and facility upgrades will only cover that up for so long.

Once that recruiting money dries up, the viewership will normalize as well.

[Uncle Nate 2097]

3 minutes ago, Jabberwocky said:

They are essentially Oklahoma State with a much bigger lottery payday. Those uniforms and facility upgrades will only cover that up for so long.

Once that recruiting money dries up, the viewership will normalize as well.

If they stick with the PAC for a few more years in a really shitty TV deal holding out hope they will eventually get the BIG invite, that viewership might dry up faster than the recruiting money.  It's not looking like there is any potential TV deal that would provide them the national exposure they would need to maintain current recruitment levels.

 

[statsman 5425]

50 minutes ago, 66BUFF said:

Source?  

Stassen Football site

[statsman 5425]

Notre Dame is a national brand without a strong recruiting base, and you could argue they used the Catholic Church as their base over several decades to achieve that stature. 
 
How has Oregon built their brand, with such a small recruiting base?

Let’s be frank- over the last 20 years, Oregon has been dirty, buying players. They have no qualms about that. NIL means they have t up their bids, which they intend to do. 
 
So, how attractive are they to a conference?
 
 

Edited June 27, 2023 by statsman

[camel at sea 589]

1 hour ago, Jabberwocky said:

They are essentially Oklahoma State with a much bigger lottery payday. Those uniforms and facility upgrades will only cover that up for so long.

Once that recruiting money dries up, the viewership will normalize as well.

The lottery payday at Oregon will keep working in their favor for decades.  Their AD isn't in any danger of being poor even after Phil Knight passes.  Nike HQ is probably not relocating, so the favored nation status that Oregon has with Nike will almost certainly continue long into the future.  

[Jabberwocky 1666]

33 minutes ago, camel at sea said:

The lottery payday at Oregon will keep working in their favor for decades.  Their AD isn't in any danger of being poor even after Phil Knight passes.  Nike HQ is probably not relocating, so the favored nation status that Oregon has with Nike will almost certainly continue long into the future.  

Okay, we will see.

[FartingDreamer 138]

On 6/23/2023 at 12:08 PM, BurntOrange&White said:

Well the big 12 is stupid. PAC 12 may be even more stupid

I trust Brett Yormark.  The guy is a forward-thinker who takes the initiative, especially compared to Bowlsby and Bebe.  

3 hours ago, TKthunder2 said:

BYU's fanbase is WAY more national then the regionality portrayed in that graphic.  They even dominate the state of Utah over the UofU.  

[TKthunder2 4980]

1 hour ago, FartingDreamer said:

BYU's fanbase is WAY more national then the regionality portrayed in that graphic.  They even dominate the state of Utah over the UofU.  

Take it up with the NYT, but if a fan base is national (like ND) this graphic isn’t going to capture that. It’s an intensity heat map so single schools that dominate their home state look more attractive than schools in a competitive state with a disbursed fan base.

Knowing nothing about college sports most would conclude that Michigan looks weaker than Wisconsin or that New Mexico is better than Texas Tech just based on this map (which we know is absurd).

[billfromlaketravis 11359]

3 hours ago, camel at sea said:

The lottery payday at Oregon will keep working in their favor for decades.  Their AD isn't in any danger of being poor even after Phil Knight passes.  Nike HQ is probably not relocating, so the favored nation status that Oregon has with Nike will almost certainly continue long into the future.  

I think the dream dies with Knight. I’m sure he’ll leave a shit ton of money to the school, but foundation money isn’t as liquid as pocket money.

Also 2024 recruits are going to start wondering why they’re not playing in the Big Ten in a couple years. 

Edited June 28, 2023 by billfromlaketravis

[camel at sea 589]

3 minutes ago, billfromlaketravis said:

I think the dream dies with Knight. I’m sure he’ll leave a shit ton of money to the school, but foundation money isn’t as liquid as pocket money.

Also 2024 recruits are going to start wondering why they’re not in the Big Ten in a couple years. 

He set up a big NIL operation, too.  They're gonna be fine financially.  

The conference situation is a real problem, but I think their worst case scenario is that they keep something like status quo (outside a Top 2 conference, but selling Nike, facilities, conference titles, CFPs, etc.)  

[LTbear 4160]

UO insider apparently claiming deal will be made in next two weeks (of course it's two weeks), closer to B1G than Big XII money, anc SMU is buying their way in by taking zero distribution for one year. 

Damn I need some popcorn. 

(In case it's not obvious, please be aware I'm posting this for entertainment purposes only. I'm not buying it, even though with two PAC degrees I'd obviously be fine with it).

[Hurtlocker 2208]

35 minutes ago, LTbear said:

UO insider apparently claiming deal will be made in next two weeks (of course it's two weeks), closer to B1G than Big XII money, anc SMU is buying their way in by taking zero distribution for one year. 

Damn I need some popcorn. 

(In case it's not obvious, please be aware I'm posting this for entertainment purposes only. I'm not buying it, even though with two PAC degrees I'd obviously be fine with it).

I have no idea how they're getting close to B1G numbers when they lack Ohio State, Michigan, Penn State and USC, literally four Top Ten teams in terms of consistent viewership.   

Twitter has been buzzing about the Canzano article today talking up SMU like its just coming off back to back natties.  Apparently their NIL set up would be the second largest in the PAC and on top of giving up revenue, they're paying the PAC's debt.

All the while, everything else has gone very quiet.

[Jabberwocky 1666]

43 minutes ago, LTbear said:

UO insider apparently claiming deal will be made in next two weeks (of course it's two weeks), closer to B1G than Big XII money, anc SMU is buying their way in by taking zero distribution for one year. 

Damn I need some popcorn. 

(In case it's not obvious, please be aware I'm posting this for entertainment purposes only. I'm not buying it, even though with two PAC degrees I'd obviously be fine 

The rumor around youtube folks is that Pac presidents have started receiving the comprehensive offer for review anywhere from Saturday through Wednesday. Of course, I cannot verify that.

The package is expected to be complex, to have a heavy streaming component, and to be loaded with unrealistic subscription incintives in order to reach a competative level of value. The general opinion is that it will take several days to comb through in order to fully comprehend.

Fireworks are expected to start this Friday (almost guaranteed to begin with SDSU), and then continue on for a couple weeks after that.  

I do not remember when Pac media days is, but it is some time in mid-July and is also expected to be a shit show.

Edited June 28, 2023 by Jabberwocky

[notre dame joe 172]

3 hours ago, Jabberwocky said:

I do not remember when Pac media days is, but it is some time in mid-July and is also expected to be a shit show.

Probably on a Tuesday. 

[Hurtlocker 2208]

July 21st in Vegas

USC/UCLA announced on June 30th that they were leaving when the B1G presidents said they accepted their invitations.....that night.  They join the B1G on August 2nd.  So maybe the B1G needed it by the end of June for their fiscal starting or to include in the deal, but the Pac's fiscal doesn't end until August.

If that's the case this could drag on for another month.

[Al_4_ISU 12409]

This could drag on infinitely.

[nineliveslost 2710]

23 minutes ago, Al_4_ISU said:

This could drag on infinitely.

will

indefinitely 

[Al_4_ISU 12409]

6 minutes ago, nineliveslost said:

will

indefinitely 

I keep bringing mentioning this absurd point, but I halfway expect that the Pac 12 is playing completely untelevised games at some point.

Whether they actually lose teams or not, they're going to lose in a big way.  If they stay together, they're going to have an absolutely awful TV contract with little exposure and will be closer to the MWC than the Big 12 and ACC.

Edited June 28, 2023 by Al_4_ISU

[nineliveslost 2710]

1 minute ago, Al_4_ISU said:

I keep bringing mentioning this absurd point, but I halfway expect that the Pac 12 is playing completely untelevised games at some point.

Whether they actually lose teams or not, they're going to lose in a big way.  If they stay together, they're going to have an absolutely awful TV contract with little exposure and will be closer to the MWC than the Big 12 and ACC.

I agree. I was just saying it isn't over with the PAC and it won't be over when the ACC implodes, and it won't be over with the new playoff format, and it won't be over with future super regions, and it won't be over. . . 

[Al_4_ISU 12409]

54 minutes ago, nineliveslost said:

I agree. I was just saying it isn't over with the PAC and it won't be over when the ACC implodes, and it won't be over with the new playoff format, and it won't be over with future super regions, and it won't be over. . . 

Yup.  The people in charge of this sport don't understand the meaning of the phrase "leave well enough alone".

[nineliveslost 2710]

I think the focus is "show me the money" 

It isn't about history, pageantry, passion, enjoyment and fan support with regards to local travel. 

It's all about feed the insatiable appetite for more money. Feed that fucking beast until it's a bloated sterilized mass to be consumed by selective streams that fans will pay more for, but ultimately turn away from. The golden goose will be beaten, raped, and abused before it will be killed off. And we will watch every single minute to the bitter end.

[Al_4_ISU 12409]

6 minutes ago, nineliveslost said:

I think the focus is "show me the money" 

It isn't about history, pageantry, passion, enjoyment and fan support with regards to local travel. 

It's all about feed the insatiable appetite for more money. Feed that fucking beast until it's a bloated sterilized mass to be consumed by selective streams that fans will pay more for, but ultimately turn away from. The golden goose will be beaten, raped, and abused before it will be killed off. And we will watch every single minute to the bitter end.

[S11 16]

22 hours ago, Jabberwocky said:

Some nerdy stuff from a Baylor writer.

Thanks for posting

[Jabberwocky 1666]

 

[Al_4_ISU 12409]

That seems like no change?

It’s also why there’s no Pac deal. GK is just stonewalling because he knows he hasn’t getting a better deal, but they won’t leave before he presents one.

So if he never presents a deal, they never leave.

[BurntOrange&White 39655]

1 minute ago, Al_4_ISU said:

That seems like no change?

It’s also why there’s no Pac deal. GK is just stonewalling because he knows he hasn’t getting a better deal, but they won’t leave before he presents one.

So if he never presents a deal, they never leave.

He'll have to shit or get off the pot. No way you can go into Aug 1 of 2024 without a deal. Getting inside of July1 of this year is putting them in a dangerous position and a literal gamble IMO.

[camel at sea 589]

11 hours ago, Hurtlocker said:

I have no idea how they're getting close to B1G numbers when they lack Ohio State, Michigan, Penn State and USC, literally four Top Ten teams in terms of consistent viewership.   

Twitter has been buzzing about the Canzano article today talking up SMU like its just coming off back to back natties.  Apparently their NIL set up would be the second largest in the PAC and on top of giving up revenue, they're paying the PAC's debt.

All the while, everything else has gone very quiet.

They can't *really* get to B1G numbers, but they can definitely put some highly unrealistic "if... then" clauses into that contract.  The media guys will push the unrealistic possibilities and it'll force those who want to exit to explain to those that don't, that the deal's numbers, as per the PAC friendly media, aren't real.

"Why would we leave when we're going to get $55M per?"
"We aren't."
"It says here in the Canzano article that we are..."


The SMU thing is interesting because it's exactly what the PAC needs.  They need more inventory but they need that extra inventory to not be distributed into more slices (since that overcomes the benefit of the additional inventory.) SMU Is the kind of place that might sign off on something like that for a year.  If the Ponies ever get their foot back into the P5 door, they'll take advantage.  Their donors have been ready for the NIL era for forty years.        

[Hagbard Celine 10761]

1 hour ago, Jabberwocky said:

 

the cutoff part of the tweet is the best:

"Moving from one conference to another is no simple process and, to be frank, IF we are considering changing memberships for exposure reasons then we need to see the number of games we will be getting on linear in advance.  It makes no sense to move if we are getting less exposure than @byu  @GoBEARCATS  @UHouston  or @UCF_Football."

[Hagbard Celine 10761]

cue the brethren who will be here shortly to tell us how they are a massive side, and protest the gaul of the unnamed 4c admin for grouping byu with the city schools

[Magus Ossis 2784]

1 hour ago, camel at sea said:

They can't *really* get to B1G numbers, but they can definitely put some highly unrealistic "if... then" clauses into that contract.  The media guys will push the unrealistic possibilities and it'll force those who want to exit to explain to those that don't, that the deal's numbers, as per the PAC friendly media, aren't real.

"Why would we leave when we're going to get $55M per?"
"We aren't."
"It says here in the Canzano article that we are..."


The SMU thing is interesting because it's exactly what the PAC needs.  They need more inventory but they need that extra inventory to not be distributed into more slices (since that overcomes the benefit of the additional inventory.) SMU Is the kind of place that might sign off on something like that for a year.  If the Ponies ever get their foot back into the P5 door, they'll take advantage.  Their donors have been ready for the NIL era for forty years.        

Bingo. And they can both word and promote the contract with the optimistic numbers, putting "corrections and adjustments" in the fine print. Headline: "PAC 10 signs deal that pays $58M per annum! More than B12 by wide margin!" But at some point the school administrators have to decide based on actual revenues, not unicorn farts. Color me surprised if there is not some ship-jumping on/before 7/31/23.

[Jabberwocky 1666]

 

[BurntOrange&White 39655]

2 hours ago, camel at sea said:

The SMU thing is interesting because it's exactly what the PAC needs.  They need more inventory but they need that extra inventory to not be distributed into more slices (since that overcomes the benefit of the additional inventory.) SMU Is the kind of place that might sign off on something like that for a year. 

I don't think this is true at all.

Edited June 28, 2023 by BurntOrange&White