Realignment talk not going away

[USC_TMB 405]

Arizona says hold my empty beer bottle (the beer evaporated upon opening) it’s a dry heat

[gatormarc 915]

7 minutes ago, USC_TMB said:

Arizona says hold my empty beer bottle (the beer evaporated upon opening) it’s a dry heat

Looks like you left it on broil.

[LTbear 4,171]

13 minutes ago, USC_TMB said:

Arizona says hold my empty beer bottle (the beer evaporated upon opening) it’s a dry heat

Fuck that 

[USC_TMB 405]

23 minutes ago, gatormarc said:

Looks like you left it on broil.

Just added that to remind anyone clamoring for asu to keep the temps in mind. Come football season it’s not as bad (relative I know), but the first month of the season heat is definitely a factor in the daytime, even with single-digit humidity. How that affects scheduling remains to be seen. The thing that I noticed moving here from SoCal, is that I don’t sweat as much when it gets stupid hot. It’s counter-intuitive, you’d think you’d sweat like a MF, but it’s too hot to sweat. I’ve pounded a gallon of water and nothing. As soon as I go in the AC and cool my body down, then I sweat. Tucson may not be as bad (don’t know, don’t care), but Tempe is an oven.  Teams would have to prepare well in advance for the heat.

['stache 21,889]

So what you all are saying is that Lubbock sucks?

[BurntOrange&White 40,044]

2 minutes ago, 'stache said:

So what you all are saying is that Lubbock sucks?

Yes and so does Stillwater

['stache 21,889]

34 minutes ago, BurntOrange&White said:

Yes and so does Stillwater

I lived there 4 years and loved every second of it, with zero desire to ever live there again.

[utee94 15,868]

8 minutes ago, 'stache said:

I lived there 4 years and loved every second of it, with zero desire to ever live there again.

I know several ags that say the same thing about College Station...

[USC Traveler 488]

20 hours ago, Trojan Man said:

Stanford, Washington, Oregon and maybe even Colorado are higher on the wishlist than ASU

Agreed on Stanford (especially as a partner with ND).  UW-ASU is an interesting debate, as UW checks all the boxes except recruiting and travel.

But with ASU now AAU, they are more attractive on many levels than the Zeros from Eugene Community College.

PHX is the #11 tv market in the US and is growing faster than almost any other top 15 market, except possibly Tampa.

PHX will be top 10 eventually. It dwarfs Eugene and is almost twice the size of Portland.

Large population of BIG alums, midwest transplants and snowbirds in the PHX area (infinitely more than Eugene/PDX).

Very good recruiting in AZ- exponentially better than OR.

ASU generates 5x the research $$ as the Zeros. 

And as you know, unlike the PNW schools, ASU, like Stanford, actually would help USC and UCLA with travel.

PHX is also closer to existing BIG schools, has more flights, and is a very attractive place to visit for BIG schools/admin/fans.

I also don't think it's coincidental that ASU got the votes to join AAU at the same time as ND and Miami.  BIG schools have a lot of pull in the AAU.

//

We are in agreement that any non-Stanford PAC possibilities for the BIG only come into play once the ACC has been carved up.  

The BIG could stop at 18 with ND and Stanford, or at 20 with those two plus two of UNC, UVA, and Miami.

The only ways I see more PAC schools coming into play would be either the BIG striking out on ACC schools (unlikely), or they get to 21 or 22 and want to add two more to get to 24 and use divisions.

Let's say over the next 10-12 years, BIG adds ND, Stanford, UNC, UVA, and Miami.  That would be 21 teams. 

Let's say it's 50/50 on whether the SEC will add FSU. BIG adding FSU would be 22 teams.

At that point, BIG probably goes to 24 and uses a pod structure for scheduling. GT could be a consideration, and UVA/UNC might use their leverage to bring Duke along.

If the BIG passes on GT and Duke and looks to add two or three teams from the West as the final teams, ASU would be a legit candidate. 

There's multiple scenarios where ASU gets added over the Zeros at that point.

There's a possibility the BIG stops at 20 or 22, but I wouldn't be surprised to see a 24 team BIG with a West pod of USC, ND, UCLA and Stanford, or a West division of USC, UCLA, Stanford, ASU, UW and CU.  (Large population of BIG alums in Denver, #17 tv market in US and brings back NU-CU rivalry.)

 

[Al_4_ISU 12,500]

1 hour ago, 'stache said:

I lived there 4 years and loved every second of it, with zero desire to ever live there again.

A lot of Cyclones say that about Ames.  I loved it until I didn't, but that had more to do with my roomates than the town itself.

I could definitely live in Ames as an adult.  Just not in the neighborhood by campus.

[BurntOrange&White 40,044]

 

[Evil Bill Obrien 3,299]

43 minutes ago, BurntOrange&White said:

 

[Hurtlocker 2,213]

4 hours ago, USC_TMB said:

Just added that to remind anyone clamoring for asu to keep the temps in mind. Come football season it’s not as bad (relative I know), but the first month of the season heat is definitely a factor in the daytime, even with single-digit humidity. How that affects scheduling remains to be seen. The thing that I noticed moving here from SoCal, is that I don’t sweat as much when it gets stupid hot. It’s counter-intuitive, you’d think you’d sweat like a MF, but it’s too hot to sweat. I’ve pounded a gallon of water and nothing. As soon as I go in the AC and cool my body down, then I sweat. Tucson may not be as bad (don’t know, don’t care), but Tempe is an oven.  Teams would have to prepare well in advance for the heat.

Used to have to go to Tuscon to have eggheads talk to me about missile development.   It's a goddamn desert and hot as fuck.   Not sure why you'd play any day games before November.

Edited July 14, 2023 by Hurtlocker

[Hurtlocker 2,213]

3 hours ago, USC Traveler said:

Agreed on Stanford (especially as a partner with ND).  UW-ASU is an interesting debate, as UW checks all the boxes except recruiting and travel.

But with ASU now AAU, they are more attractive on many levels than the Zeros from Eugene Community College.

PHX is the #11 tv market in the US and is growing faster than almost any other top 15 market, except possibly Tampa.

PHX will be top 10 eventually. It dwarfs Eugene and is almost twice the size of Portland.

Large population of BIG alums, midwest transplants and snowbirds in the PHX area (infinitely more than Eugene/PDX).

Very good recruiting in AZ- exponentially better than OR.

ASU generates 5x the research $$ as the Zeros. 

And as you know, unlike the PNW schools, ASU, like Stanford, actually would help USC and UCLA with travel.

PHX is also closer to existing BIG schools, has more flights, and is a very attractive place to visit for BIG schools/admin/fans.

I also don't think it's coincidental that ASU got the votes to join AAU at the same time as ND and Miami.  BIG schools have a lot of pull in the AAU.

//

We are in agreement that any non-Stanford PAC possibilities for the BIG only come into play once the ACC has been carved up.  

The BIG could stop at 18 with ND and Stanford, or at 20 with those two plus two of UNC, UVA, and Miami.

The only ways I see more PAC schools coming into play would be either the BIG striking out on ACC schools (unlikely), or they get to 21 or 22 and want to add two more to get to 24 and use divisions.

Let's say over the next 10-12 years, BIG adds ND, Stanford, UNC, UVA, and Miami.  That would be 21 teams. 

Let's say it's 50/50 on whether the SEC will add FSU. BIG adding FSU would be 22 teams.

At that point, BIG probably goes to 24 and uses a pod structure for scheduling. GT could be a consideration, and UVA/UNC might use their leverage to bring Duke along.

If the BIG passes on GT and Duke and looks to add two or three teams from the West as the final teams, ASU would be a legit candidate. 

There's multiple scenarios where ASU gets added over the Zeros at that point.

There's a possibility the BIG stops at 20 or 22, but I wouldn't be surprised to see a 24 team BIG with a West pod of USC, ND, UCLA and Stanford, or a West division of USC, UCLA, Stanford, ASU, UW and CU.  (Large population of BIG alums in Denver, #17 tv market in US and brings back NU-CU rivalry.)

 

If the B10 grew like it normally does, it takes Arizona before ASU, AAU and all, also the B10 needs basketball too.

Though Delaney had a quote that there is a point where a conference stops being a conference, and he thought it was 16.   Pretty confident the Pac is just going to rebuild without LA.

2 hours ago, Al_4_ISU said:

A lot of Cyclones say that about Ames.  I loved it until I didn't, but that had more to do with my roomates than the town itself.

I could definitely live in Ames as an adult.  Just not in the neighborhood by campus.

Funny thing about college towns, they fucking rock when you're in college.   Not so much after.

[CustersDoctor 584]

2 hours ago, BurntOrange&White said:

 

 

[Gidnik 3,285]

On 7/11/2023 at 12:07 PM, Jabberwocky said:

 

anyone have the article? 12ft isnt workin.

[Al_4_ISU 12,500]

1 hour ago, Hurtlocker said:

If the B10 grew like it normally does, it takes Arizona before ASU, AAU and all, also the B10 needs basketball too.

Though Delaney had a quote that there is a point where a conference stops being a conference, and he thought it was 16.   Pretty confident the Pac is just going to rebuild without LA.

Funny thing about college towns, they fucking rock when you're in college.   Not so much after.

I could totally live in a college town as an adult.

Just not in a neighborhood where my neighbors were students

[bullet 1,599]

9 hours ago, USC Traveler said:

Agreed on Stanford (especially as a partner with ND).  UW-ASU is an interesting debate, as UW checks all the boxes except recruiting and travel.

But with ASU now AAU, they are more attractive on many levels than the Zeros from Eugene Community College.

PHX is the #11 tv market in the US and is growing faster than almost any other top 15 market, except possibly Tampa.

PHX will be top 10 eventually. It dwarfs Eugene and is almost twice the size of Portland.

Large population of BIG alums, midwest transplants and snowbirds in the PHX area (infinitely more than Eugene/PDX).

Very good recruiting in AZ- exponentially better than OR.

ASU generates 5x the research $$ as the Zeros. 

And as you know, unlike the PNW schools, ASU, like Stanford, actually would help USC and UCLA with travel.

PHX is also closer to existing BIG schools, has more flights, and is a very attractive place to visit for BIG schools/admin/fans.

I also don't think it's coincidental that ASU got the votes to join AAU at the same time as ND and Miami.  BIG schools have a lot of pull in the AAU.

//

We are in agreement that any non-Stanford PAC possibilities for the BIG only come into play once the ACC has been carved up.  

The BIG could stop at 18 with ND and Stanford, or at 20 with those two plus two of UNC, UVA, and Miami.

The only ways I see more PAC schools coming into play would be either the BIG striking out on ACC schools (unlikely), or they get to 21 or 22 and want to add two more to get to 24 and use divisions.

Let's say over the next 10-12 years, BIG adds ND, Stanford, UNC, UVA, and Miami.  That would be 21 teams. 

Let's say it's 50/50 on whether the SEC will add FSU. BIG adding FSU would be 22 teams.

At that point, BIG probably goes to 24 and uses a pod structure for scheduling. GT could be a consideration, and UVA/UNC might use their leverage to bring Duke along.

If the BIG passes on GT and Duke and looks to add two or three teams from the West as the final teams, ASU would be a legit candidate. 

There's multiple scenarios where ASU gets added over the Zeros at that point.

There's a possibility the BIG stops at 20 or 22, but I wouldn't be surprised to see a 24 team BIG with a West pod of USC, ND, UCLA and Stanford, or a West division of USC, UCLA, Stanford, ASU, UW and CU.  (Large population of BIG alums in Denver, #17 tv market in US and brings back NU-CU rivalry.)

 

I think the part about the AAU is total bs.  Otherwise, Big 10 schools wouldn't have been the votes that kicked NU out of the AAU.  Had Wisconsin and Michigan voted for NU like all the Big 12 schools did, NU would still be AAU.

[Dnaguy 12,102]

13 hours ago, Al_4_ISU said:

I could totally live in a college town as an adult.

Just not in a neighborhood where my neighbors were students

No way. It'll be like when those tech billionaires get blood infusions from 20 year olds.

You'll have a new lease on life.

[bullet 1,599]

https://www.on3.com/os/news/brett-yormark-id-be-a-little-disappointed-if-big-12-doesnt-add-two-teams-in-two-years/

 

Brett will be disappointed if the Big 12 isn't mathematically challenged in 2025.  He wants at least 14.

[Hurtlocker 2,213]

29 minutes ago, bullet said:

https://www.on3.com/os/news/brett-yormark-id-be-a-little-disappointed-if-big-12-doesnt-add-two-teams-in-two-years/

 

Brett will be disappointed if the Big 12 isn't mathematically challenged in 2025.  He wants at least 14.

What i found interesting in that article is his talking about marketing:

Quote

Our brand awareness doesn’t resonate everywhere. And I want to change that. One way to change that is to create a new narrative and profile, which we are doing to leverage the influence of ESPN and Fox.

Q: You mentioned you’re “grateful” for striking early with a media rights deal last fall, extending with ESPN and FOX. There are now fierce headwinds in the media rights space – including ESPN becoming more selective in rights decisions – and other leagues [Pac-12] are feeling those headwinds. Did you see them coming? Is that why you struck fast?

YORMARK: “I didn’t. But once I came out of media day last year, and our next media deals, if you will, were kind of on my radar, and we had interest from our TV partners, I’m a firm believer that you grab a good bird in the hand when you get it. And I felt that we had a good bird in the hand. It was a fair deal. It was the right deal. Everyone said we wouldn’t get an increase. We did. We got more promotion. We got more marketing. So, I felt it was a great deal and one we had to do. Looking back now, I think that deal looks better every day.”

 

The SEC has given up cash in the past for exposure and marketing, and its a good move every time.  Worked for Boise State too when they did it.  I'm interested to see how that develops with a group of brands that are still a lower case b.

[Evil Bill Obrien 3,299]

23 hours ago, 'stache said:

So what you all are saying is that Lubbock sucks?

Lubbock is a great place to spend a weekend in the fall around a football game... as long as you don't mind being called racial epithets, Aggy, and homophobic slurs and don't mind having various objects thrown at you including frozen tortillas, tortillas with batteries in them, stale tortillas, tortillas with bodily fluids on them, tortillas with green eggs and ham, beer bottles, scat, etc...oh and STD's

 

...hand up...that last one might be on me...

Edited July 15, 2023 by Evil Bill Obrien

[Hurtlocker 2,213]

6 minutes ago, Evil Bill Obrien said:

Lubbock is a great place to spend a weekend in the fall around a football game... as long as you don't mind being called racial epithets, Aggy, and homophobic slurs and don't mind having various objects thrown at you including frozen tortillas, tortillas with batteries in them, stale tortillas, tortillas with bodily fluids on them, tortillas with green eggs and ham, beer bottles, scat, etc...oh and STD's

 

...hand up...that last one might be on me...

The biggest offense there is clearly the stale tortillas.

[billfromlaketravis 11,531]

Weather talk not going away. 

Spoiler

It's hot in Texas.

 

[LTbear 4,171]

28 minutes ago, billfromlaketravis said:

Weather talk not going away. 

  Hide contents

It's hot in Texas.

 

[notre dame joe 196]

2 hours ago, LTbear said:

ASU says hold my warm beer.

 

[cochamps 1,879]

37 minutes ago, notre dame joe said:

ASU says hold my warm beer.

 

Very dry 114 though 😉

[Lone Star Horn 2,018]

20 hours ago, cochamps said:

Very dry 114 though 😉

It is a dry heat.

I live in the Phoenix area and as long as you're not in direct sunlight,  it can be tolerable. 

I was in Dallas last week,  temp was 100 and it felt like 114, due to the humidity.  FUCK THAT!

I lived in Austin for 30 years before moving almost 3 years ago.  I find it easier to handle the heat here.  Just have to understand to not stay in direct sunlight for long periods of time.  Also you learn to spend time indoors and the winters are very mild.  I think we hit a low of 32 last winter overnight only a couple of times. 

 

[notre dame joe 196]

3 hours ago, Lone Star Horn said:

It is a dry heat.

I live in the Phoenix area and as long as you're not in direct sunlight,  it can be tolerable. 

I was in Dallas last week,  temp was 100 and it felt like 114, due to the humidity.  FUCK THAT!

I lived in Austin for 30 years before moving almost 3 years ago.  I find it easier to handle the heat here.  Just have to understand to not stay in direct sunlight for long periods of time.  Also you learn to spend time indoors and the winters are very mild.  I think we hit a low of 32 last winter overnight only a couple of times. 

 

I like to show this one on the airplane. 

 

[billfromlaketravis 11,531]

Lubbock is fine if Midland/Odessa/Big Spring are your alternatives. My company is sending plenty of check to retirees in Lubbock with proprieties in the oil patch. 

Edited July 17, 2023 by billfromlaketravis

[CustersDoctor 584]

On 7/15/2023 at 11:38 AM, Evil Bill Obrien said:

Lubbock is a great place to spend a weekend in the fall around a football game... as long as you don't mind being called racial epithets, Aggy, and homophobic slurs and don't mind having various objects thrown at you including frozen tortillas, tortillas with batteries in them, stale tortillas, tortillas with bodily fluids on them, tortillas with green eggs and ham, beer bottles, scat, etc...oh and STD's

 

...hand up...that last one might be on me...

 

[USC Traveler 488]

On 7/14/2023 at 2:35 PM, Hurtlocker said:

If the B10 grew like it normally does, it takes Arizona before ASU, AAU and all, also the B10 needs basketball too.

With ASU gaining AAU status at the same time as ND and Miami, it just feels like there's too much there to be coincidental.  

Either way, I can't see UA ever getting into the BIG now that ASU also is an AAU school, with all the BIG alums, potential recruits and students in PHX, plus the fact that it's a much bigger tv market.

[BurntOrange&White 40,044]

https://www.heartlandcollegesports.com/2023/07/16/brock-huard-calls-pac-12-tv-situation-very-dire/

 

Quote

He went on to say, “These universities, these campuses broke the trust of these networks by not showing up, by not caring. And frankly in some of the places like Palo Alto and Berkley, they’d rather not have football. Upper campus and some of their leadership don’t even need football… and once you’ve broken that trust, and these networks, who pay all the money, and they do all the work, and they’ve got all of their advertisers, they need numbers. We’ve got to have eye balls. And they tune in to watch Cal Berkeley, and there is Marshawn Lynch on the sidelines going, ‘Where the *** is everybody?'”

 

 

Edited July 17, 2023 by BurntOrange&White

[Hurtlocker 2,213]

6 hours ago, USC Traveler said:

With ASU gaining AAU status at the same time as ND and Miami, it just feels like there's too much there to be coincidental.  

Either way, I can't see UA ever getting into the BIG now that ASU also is an AAU school, with all the BIG alums, potential recruits and students in PHX, plus the fact that it's a much bigger tv market.

Fair my man, I think I missed where ASU joined. 😄

[closetohumping 17,476]

37 minutes ago, BurntOrange&White said:

https://www.heartlandcollegesports.com/2023/07/16/brock-huard-calls-pac-12-tv-situation-very-dire/

 

 

 

There's some truth here.  The west coast in general just doesn't care as much.   

[USC Traveler 488]

5 hours ago, Hurtlocker said:

Fair my man, I think I missed where ASU joined. 😄

I had a feeling that was the case.  🤘

 

 

Ok, back to our regularly scheduled programming.  

 

The PAC10 Presidents released a statement that all 10 schools are unified and look forward to consummating a successful media rights deal in the very near future.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Unfortunately, that statement was issued on February 13th, more than five months ago.😂

[CustersDoctor 584]

On 7/15/2023 at 10:23 AM, bullet said:

https://www.on3.com/os/news/brett-yormark-id-be-a-little-disappointed-if-big-12-doesnt-add-two-teams-in-two-years/

 

Brett will be disappointed if the Big 12 isn't mathematically challenged in 2025.  He wants at least 14.

The Big12 will have more linear exposure this year than in any previous season EVER. Remember we haven't had 12 teams since 2010 and we've never had 14 teams before. If the BIG12 doesn't have 14 teams for the 2024 football season, those linear TV spots will be picked up by another conference. It is not inherent that IF the BIG12 is back to 14 by 2024 that it keeps the slots it has this year. The power fanbases of UT & OU will disappear and with them some of those linear slots. But you certainly can't keep any of those slots if you don't have the games to keep them. And of course we know that it's the PACX that is desperate for any broadcast options and they'd be glad to get those slots. So the BIG12 would like to add two schools in time for the 2024 football season and to me the only rational options (Sans PACX schools) for the BIG12 are SDSU, FRESNO ST & maybe UCONN.

[CustersDoctor 584]

HOLLYWOOD MARRIAGES THAT DIDN'T LAST AS LONG AS THE PACX MEDIA NEGOTIATIONS:

BRITNEY SPEARS & JASON ALEXANDER 55hrs

NICOLAS CAGE & ERIKA KOIKE 4 DAYS

KRIS HUMPHRIES & KIM KARDASHIAN 72 DAYS

NICOLAS CAGE & LISA MAIRIE PRESLEY 107 DAYS

PAMELA ANDERSON & KID ROCK 122 DAYS

KENNY CHESNEY & RENEE ZELLWEGER 128 DAYS

CARMEN ELECTRA & DENNIS RODMAN 129 DAYS

SOPHIA BUSH & CHAD MICHAEL MURPHY 163 DAYS

JENNIFER LOPEZ & CHRIS JUDD 218 DAYS

JIM CAREY & LAUREN HOLLY 309 DAYS

ELIZABETH TAYLOR HAD FIVE MARRIAGES THAT DIDN'T LAST THIS LONG

MILEY CYRUS & LIAM HEMSWORTH 8 MONTHS

CHER & GREG ALLMAN 9 DAYS

[Hurtlocker 2,213]

2 hours ago, USC Traveler said:

I had a feeling that was the case.  🤘

 

Unfortunately, that statement was issued on February 13th, more than five months ago.😂

Haha on both counts.   Yean, the amount of fucks I give about research dollars is pretty minimal.  

[John80 157]

I agree with Huard about Cal but Stanford's administration tries at football within their academic limitations and they have had several good teams in the last 15 years. An elite private school with only 8,000 undergrads isn't going to have great attendance but I don't think their administration can do much about that.

[CustersDoctor 584]

5 hours ago, John80 said:

I agree with Huard about Cal but Stanford's administration tries at football within their academic limitations and they have had several good teams in the last 15 years. An elite private school with only 8,000 undergrads isn't going to have great attendance but I don't think their administration can do much about that.

Here is a serious question, Can the Pacx kick out cal and replace them with san diego state. And that sure says a lot about my opinion of Cal That I think San Diego state is a step up.

[Gidnik 3,285]

This friday

[Laxtonto 12,121]

53 minutes ago, Gidnik said:

This friday

Can we get @Hurtlocker a surlyhorns press pass and send him to this event?

I would pay good money to have someone that has above average knowledge on media rights to sit there and ask real follow up questions… fuck just have him sit there in real-time and give his questions to other media members would make the press conference and q&a be a beautiful disastrous train wreck of epic proportions…

[BurntOrange&White 40,044]

 

@Hurtlocker while being arrested for asking tough realignment and tv deal questions at PAC12 Media day with Surly press pass.

[statsman 5,486]

I get why this isn’t an easy decision for Arizona, ASU and CU (let alone UW and Oregon). 
 
PAC pros- decades of solid-to-great history, located in a traditionally great area, very solid universities 

PAC cons- lost southern CA (most fertile recruiting area), bad near term TV contracts (hurt by Covid response and exhibited willingness to drop football?), doubts about commitment of UW and Oregon

B12 pros- better TV contracts near term, opens up Texas recruiting, better stability

B12 cons- doubts about post-2031 contracts, only CU has history there

 Those schools worked for so long to get into the PAC. I understand why they are hesitant to just jump to the B12. 

[Al_4_ISU 12,500]

21 minutes ago, statsman said:

I get why this isn’t an easy decision for Arizona, ASU and CU (let alone UW and Oregon). 
 
PAC pros- decades of solid-to-great history, located in a traditionally great area, very solid universities 

PAC cons- lost southern CA (most fertile recruiting area), bad near term TV contracts (hurt by Covid response and exhibited willingness to drop football?), doubts about commitment of UW and Oregon

B12 pros- better TV contracts near term, opens up Texas recruiting, better stability

B12 cons- doubts about post-2031 contracts, only CU has history there

 Those schools worked for so long to get into the PAC. I understand why they are hesitant to just jump to the B12. 

Can you really call this a con for the Big 12 given the Pac's current situation?

[BurntOrange&White 40,044]

13 minutes ago, Al_4_ISU said:

Can you really call this a con for the Big 12 given the Pac's current situation?

No....

 

IMO Big 12 is better setup post 2031 than PAC is. If PAC does broker a deal and that deals GOR only goes the length of that media contract they will have to worry about Oregon/Washington again in 3-5 years, depending on length of deal/GOR. 

[Al_4_ISU 12,500]

Just now, BurntOrange&White said:

No....

 

IMO Big 12 is better setup post 2031 than PAC is. If PAC does broker a deal and that deals GOR only goes the length of that media contract they will have to worry about Oregon/Washington again in 3-5 years, depending on length of deal/GOR. 

Right.  The Big 12's deal isn't the Big 10 or SEC's and will never be, but the new deal is based on (assumedly) a lengthy analysis of the programs that are involved, what they got for ratings when not playing OU/UT, etc.  They have a deal in place, and it's one that seems to fit what the league offers.  While any Big 12 school would take and SEC/Big 10 invite, they all seem to have accepted that it won't happen and their best bet is working together as a group.

The Pac 12 has spent the past year touting an imminent deal with nothing to show for it.  It's two biggest properties are begging for Big 10 invites.  It's a complete mess.  Whatever uncertainty exists for the Big 12, it's about 10x worse for that league.

[Hurtlocker 2,213]

3 hours ago, statsman said:

I get why this isn’t an easy decision for Arizona, ASU and CU (let alone UW and Oregon). 
 
PAC pros- decades of solid-to-great history, located in a traditionally great area, very solid universities 

PAC cons- lost southern CA (most fertile recruiting area), bad near term TV contracts (hurt by Covid response and exhibited willingness to drop football?), doubts about commitment of UW and Oregon

B12 pros- better TV contracts near term, opens up Texas recruiting, better stability

B12 cons- doubts about post-2031 contracts, only CU has history there

 Those schools worked for so long to get into the PAC. I understand why they are hesitant to just jump to the B12. 

I'd add that one of the biggest cons that is keeping them in orbit right now, and maybe by GK design, is the Pac schools' equity in PacNet.   Clearly USC and UCLA have no issue walking away from it, they've hit gold.   But none of the others, even the Ducks and Huskies, seem to have that lucrative escape set up for them.   

Some people ran the numbers during Covid when the Big Ten sold another 10% of BTN to Fox for cash, that the PacNet could be worth about $250m.   If they got that number, which I doubt, but let's play nice, that means roughly $17-19m per remaining school after paying off Comcast/Holiday bowl debt.   

That is probably enough to keep CU/AZ at the table, even if it is just for one more contract.  They'll want to wait it out until USC/UCLA pay the debt, but don't get the sale, and that sale, spread over time, adds $2-3m per year to a contract with a higher valuation than they can get if they keep the PacNet.

That network is an anchor on their earnings right now.   It takes inventory without showing it to enough people to pay what they need and, with ten teams, a greater percent of their inventory has to go to it than before.   

The Pac is likey worth the new B12's numbers if they had all their inventory to sell.   The only way to do that is dump the PacNet.  At ten, they'd even make more writing off the loss of scuttling the network than they would in trying to keep it operational.

Edited July 18, 2023 by Hurtlocker

[statsman 5,486]

I suspect that one of the B12 advantages is the current members know it is the best conference they can be in. 
 
The PAC still has schools that believe they should be in a top-pay conference,…because they were in one just a couple of years ago. 10 years ago, the PAC and B10 were peers, more than any other pair of conferences, and now there is a big diversion. 
 
If the PAC schools could accept reality, the conference can start stabilizing, and become the #3 conference. However, I suspect there are a few schools that won’t surrender their ambitions.