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Realignment talk not going away

The Tower

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Posted by Sandbagging Steve,

How many teams will be left when the dust settles in a few years? I think there's a way for all the teams to still have some involvement. I will explain that at the end of this list. Here's my list of the top 32 programs and a list if it goes to 48. There's some debate if it goes to 48, but not much debate if it stops at 32. I guess one could debate Arizona State, but that's about it. The top 32 at least come close to carrying their own weight. Everyone below that line is losing money for t

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Upgrayedd

Upgrayedd 5805

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11 minutes ago, Neonmoon said:

Utah-BYU (Sinners & Saints)

ASU-UA (Desert Bowl)

TTU-OSU (Pew Pew Bowl)

CU-ISU (Flip Cup)

KSU-KU (Light Skirmish)

TCU-BU (Jesus Bowl)

Cincy-WVU (Trash Panda Fight)

UH-UCF (High School Duel)

 

 

AU never went to the Rose Bowl.  Heh.

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Aggy should abstain so the vote is 13-0 and then we can then brand it on their dog.

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billfromlaketravis

billfromlaketravis 11359

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I’ll say it. Sankey fucked up by negotiating exclusively with ESPN. I believe the backstory is : shortly after becoming commissioner in 2015, Sankey wanted to renegotiate the 230 game with CBS. I believe CBS was/is paying a paltry $7 million per game. CBS declined, and Sankey responded by telling CBS not to bother submitting bids for the SEC’s media rights when they came up again. 
 

So here we are. ESPN won’t pay additional money for Texas and OU, and they won’t pay for a 9th conference game. 
 

We’re far from screwed, but Sankey didn’t deliver the best deal. 

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TKthunder2

TKthunder2 4980

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15 minutes ago, billfromlaketravis said:

So Fox/CBS/NBC are are willing to pay more to make Oregon a junior partner. 
 

Meanwhile, the SEC can’t get ESPN to pay for one fucking extra conference game. 

FOX has to pay more to get them. They know the Big Ten won’t let them in without $. They also bring two new markets under the BTN in market rate and offer more late kick options which is appealing for FS1. Oregon/Washington have options and so does the Big Ten in a late night package for ESPN. If they deliver that value at half cost and keep them away from ESPN then it’s a pretty solid deal.

On the SEC, ESPN gets no new markets or carriage agreements, and the SEC has no other options. ESPN is playing hardball because they can and because they think the SEC will eventually go to 9 conference games on their own because they value their #2 rivalries too much. Why buy the cow when you can get the milk for free? If the SEC stands pat at 8 games two years in a row and big time rivalry games get skipped then you might see them actually be willing to pony up. Until then, 8 games while keeping the rivals intact is a weak bluff.

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Jasper_Jester

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This appears to be why Cal is getting caught on their backfoot with no plan in place UC Regents: UCLA to leave for Big Ten, will pay Cal $2 to $10 million, reportedly annually (writeforcalifornia.com) Basically they are getting a check from UCLA to make up for some of the difference between PAC12 payout. 

I'm guessing they were hearing the $20M rumors and adding $10M to that.

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BurntOrange&White

BurntOrange&White 39655

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1 minute ago, Jasper_Jester said:

This appears to be why Cal is getting caught on their backfoot with no plan in place UC Regents: UCLA to leave for Big Ten, will pay Cal $2 to $10 million, reportedly annually (writeforcalifornia.com) Basically they are getting a check from UCLA to make up for some of the difference between PAC12 payout. 

I'm guessing they were hearing the $20M rumors and adding $10M to that.

Lol cal is so stupid


 

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TKthunder2

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10 minutes ago, billfromlaketravis said:

I’ll say it. Sankey fucked up by negotiating exclusively with ESPN. I believe the backstory is : shortly after becoming commissioner in 2015, Sankey wanted to renegotiate the 230 game with CBS. I believe CBS was/is paying a paltry $7 million per game. CBS declined, and Sankey responded by telling CBS not to bother submitting bids for the SEC’s media rights when they came up again. 
 

So here we are. ESPN won’t pay additional money for Texas and OU, and they won’t pay for a 9th conference game. 
 

We’re far from screwed, but Sankey didn’t deliver the best deal. 

Maybe, but with ESPN holding their tier 2 and 3 rights it made a lot of sense in the short term. I haven’t got into all the specifics before because until this last Big Ten deal the numbers for the SEC were just bonkers comparatively speaking so it wasn’t worth a lot of scrutiny. Often the conference with the newest deal makes the most money.

Still, personally not upset if the SEC makes a little less money than the conference that has to fly from LAX to EWR for conference games (and maybe soon from SEA to MIA as well).

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Lonestar88

Lonestar88 4585

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21 minutes ago, billfromlaketravis said:

So here we are. ESPN won’t pay additional money for Texas and OU, and they won’t pay for a 9th conference game. 
 

ESPN absolutely paid for Texas and OU, just not in the way you think. They had to pay Fox. Fox has Big 12 rights and we’re losing their two biggest bell cows. They got compensated for that by ESPN, with money and additional inventory. I don’t think the exact amount was ever made public though.

Theres no such problem for these departing PAC-12 schools though, because the Pac doesn’t have a tv deal. So any network money spent can just go the the conference/schools. 

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Sbbruin

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15 minutes ago, Jasper_Jester said:

This appears to be why Cal is getting caught on their backfoot with no plan in place UC Regents: UCLA to leave for Big Ten, will pay Cal $2 to $10 million, reportedly annually (writeforcalifornia.com) Basically they are getting a check from UCLA to make up for some of the difference between PAC12 payout. 

I'm guessing they were hearing the $20M rumors and adding $10M to that.

They’ll never get it.

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LTbear

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20 minutes ago, Jasper_Jester said:

This appears to be why Cal is getting caught on their backfoot with no plan in place UC Regents: UCLA to leave for Big Ten, will pay Cal $2 to $10 million, reportedly annually (writeforcalifornia.com) Basically they are getting a check from UCLA to make up for some of the difference between PAC12 payout. 

I'm guessing they were hearing the $20M rumors and adding $10M to that.

I can tell you this couldn't be further from the truth. Cal has understood the severity of the situation since the day USC and UCLA left and have been exploring every possible option. There's just not many.

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LTbear

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18 minutes ago, BurntOrange&White said:

 

ASU insiders reporting that the ASU president is "being a pain in the ass" and dragging things out while the BOR and entire AD want them to go Big XII. Of course said ASU president was also slobbing on Larry Scott's knob til the bitter end. 

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26 minutes ago, TKthunder2 said:

FOX has to pay more to get them. They know the Big Ten won’t let them in without $. They also bring two new markets under the BTN in market rate and offer more late kick options which is appealing for FS1. Oregon/Washington have options and so does the Big Ten in a late night package for ESPN. If they deliver that value at half cost and keep them away from ESPN then it’s a pretty solid deal.

On the SEC, ESPN gets no new markets or carriage agreements, and the SEC has no other options. ESPN is playing hardball because they can and because they think the SEC will eventually go to 9 conference games on their own because they value their #2 rivalries too much. Why buy the cow when you can get the milk for free? If the SEC stands pat at 8 games two years in a row and big time rivalry games get skipped then you might see them actually be willing to pony up. Until then, 8 games while keeping the rivals intact is a weak bluff.

Call the bluff.  Do a 2-6 or 3-5.  You still get every other school 6 in 13 years or 5 in 13 years.  Not much difference than every other year.  Either 1 less or 3 less over 26 years.

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LTtxfan

LTtxfan 48972

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55 minutes ago, Lonestar88 said:

Washington and Oregon are desperate and have no leverage because they don’t really want to go to the Big 12 and the Big 10 is kind of lukewarm on them anyways. They aren’t going to get full shares for a while.

Makes sense... B10 should structure deal so early money for Ducks/Huskies is similar to B12 payout, then ratchets up over a 5yr period...

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Huckleberry

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I can't shake the feeling that the 4 left standing eventually balloon to 20 teams, then realize that's not a real conference, then subdivide into divisions of 10 along generally geographic lines. Suddenly 25 years from now we have basically the same conferences. And we're right back to the best kind of conference (10 teams, round robin schedules) with pairs of divisions that are "conferences" for media contract purposes only.

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DanTheHorn

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4 minutes ago, LTbear said:

ASU insiders reporting that the ASU president is "being a pain in the ass" and dragging things out while the BOR and entire AD want them to go Big XII. Of course said ASU president was also slobbing on Larry Scott's knob til the bitter end. 

 

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TKthunder2

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4 minutes ago, Huckleberry said:

I can't shake the feeling that the 4 left standing eventually balloon to 20 teams, then realize that's not a real conference, then subdivide into divisions of 10 along generally geographic lines. Suddenly 25 years from now we have basically the same conferences. And we're right back to the best kind of conference (10 teams, round robin schedules) with pairs of divisions that are "conferences" for media contract purposes only.

Except you have 2 with all the big time major brands and 2 with the mid tier brands.

If Notre Dame, Oregon, Washington, Florida St, Clemson, Miami, North Carolina, Virginia and a few others all join the P2 it really would make a lot of sense to combine the Big 12 and the best or the ACC (sorry Wake/BC) and maybe a select team or two from the MWC/AAC and go to market as a single fb conference with two large divisions while maintaining other sports in a more geographically friendly setup.

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Hook1997

Hook1997 5287

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It just sucks all around that’s we might get to 20 team conferences for the fans.  We made fun of aggy for never playing Georgia but now teams might not play other teams in their own conference but once every ten years as a regular occurrence.   No one has a clue how to schedule this shit or how to do divisions yet.   SEC can’t figure out how to schedule or don’t want to for a 16 teams conference because pods and a real rotating schedule takes away their control to pick and choose and make the top half look better then they really are like they have been for years.  Most SEC teams don’t want to give up their non conference cupcake wins either.  If you got to 2-3 non conference games and everyone schedules non conference cupcakes how to judge between the conferences?

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gatormarc

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USCw reminding everyone that they're a villain here in case you forgot while you were busy blaming Texas.

https://www.on3.com/teams/usc-trojans/news/musings-from-arledge-dont-do-it-big-ten/

Spoiler

Musings from Arledge: Don't do it, Big Ten
Chris Arledge

The following breaking news analysis does not express the views of On3, WeAreSC, or any responsible party, really. It is solely my own analysis. And despite what you may think, it was not written under the influence of any adult beverage or narcotic—only anger and disappointment.  

Have you ever been at the store, walking past the “clearance” table—a big pile of junk that nobody has wanted for a very long time, all in disarray, disheveled piles having been picked at, some of it having even fallen onto the ground—and thought to yourself, “Hmm. I’m not sure I really want that, but it’s only 99 cents….”

That’s what the Big Ten presidents are doing right now as they look at Oregon on the Pac-12 clearance scrap heap. Not really our thing. We already passed once. But, I don’t know, for 99 cents….

The stuff on the clearance table is usually junk. Still, the Big Ten may just buy it. Who knows. I don’t spend a ton of time at garage sales, but I’ve seen enough to know that people will buy all kinds of crap when it’s really cheap. And, right now, sitting in a broken, has-been conference, sinking as everybody else looks to find a lifeboat, staring at a new “TV” deal with no actual TV and hardly any money, watching as the corner schools prepare to jump and reduce the Pac-9 to the Pac-6, Oregon is cheap. Dirt cheap. 

So the Big Ten may be willing to shop in the bargain basement after all. And Oregon may even be worth it if you can pay a fraction of the money that goes to Rutgers, Maryland, Illinois, and Northwestern. That point’s debatable, but it’s not crazy. A good businessman might be tempted. So the Big Ten may just bring Oregon on as a partial member. It may even be profitable. I once saw a broken-down version of a one-hit wonder 80’s band at a county fair. It looked like they still managed to sell a few tickets. You can sometimes make some money off things that aren’t all that valuable in the marketplace. Maybe these Big Ten presidents are astute.

Of course, the broken-down 80’s band at least had a hit once. I’m too lazy to research it, but I’m not sure that Oregon ever has. 

But don’t tell that to Dan Lanning. When asked for his response to Colorado leaving the Pac-12, Lanning strutted around like a peacock, feathers out for all the world to see, and proved that he really does belong at Oregon: “Not a big reaction. I’m trying to remember what they won to affect this conference. I don’t remember…. Do you remember them winning anything?” 

Well, Dan, now that you mention it, I don’t remember Colorado winning anything to affect the conference. Not like you. You won the Holiday Bowl over a five-loss North Carolina team. And lost to Georgia 49-3. That surely moved the needle. The streaming-only Apple deal probably would have been for only 10 or 15 million per team, not 20, without that stunning show of force. 

Of course, I also remember Colorado winning a national title once. A long time ago, sure. But they did. I saw it. And I don’t remember…. Do you remember Oregon winning one of those?

Dan did, as an assistant coach. Just like Steve Sarkisian did. Just like Charlie Weis won some Super Bowls as an assistant. Assistants who are cogs in powerful machines built by great head coaches often like to take credit for something that wasn’t theirs. Dan left … and Georgia won another title while Dan’s new defense gave up almost 30 points a game. The truth always comes out. Kirby Smart needs Lanning the same way Belichick needed Weis.

So, yes, Colorado hasn’t won anything. Dan is right about that. But here’s the thing about Oregon, which also hasn’t won anything, despite the millions that Uncle Phil has spent dressing up that pig. (Yes, it’s a prettier pig than it used to be, but it’s still good only for bacon.) Oregon crawled out of the swamp 20 years ago almost like it showed up on the scene from another dimension. Who are these guys? We’ve never seen them before. But Oregon wasn’t new; they’d been around forever. Yet it can seem like you’re new, I suppose, if you’ve never actually done anything in your many decades of play and nobody has any reason to remember you. Oregon moved from fourth rate to second rate when Daddy Warbucks bought them a new house and better clothes. There’s nothing wrong with that; but it doesn’t change what they are underneath the fancy new threads. That’s probably why Oregon coaches always leave as soon as they can find another job. Dan will, too—if he can win something bigger than the Holiday Bowl.

Oregon is what they’ve always been: a charity case for USC. Only the charity has all run out. USC used to give $100,000,000 a year in media value to the rest of the conference. Then it left, and the conference imploded like a black hole; its power source having been depleted immediately with USC’s departure, it just collapse into itself like an infinitely dense ball of nothingness. You know it’s there; you just can’t see it anymore. Certainly not on network television.  The networks aren’t interested. 

And since the day USC took its $100,000,000 of annual charity to the Midwest, Oregon has been begging to join the Big Ten too. And rightly so; you can’t expect a crew that has been living off of somebody else’s largesse for decades to be able to support themselves right away. That takes time, patience, training. Maybe even a little intellect. Good luck with that. Better to see if you can beg your way into another sugar-daddy relationship. Now it’s not just USC. Michigan, Penn State, and Ohio State can all help support your clothes habit. Join the Big Ten and get money for as many different game-day costumes as the slave labor in Nike’s overseas factories can invent. 

This will allow Uncle Phil to save his money for what matters most: trying to get USC commits to make a terrible life decision and join Oregon instead by offering large bags of cash. Kids of 17 and 18 often aren’t all that hard to fool. Better education, better coaching, better future? Nah, just give me a couple hundred grand instead. That should last forever. I’ll be rich. 

And there’s the rub. The Big Ten may feel they can make some money off Oregon. And maybe they can. They may even feel sorry for Oregon. Oregon is effectively homeless, and a kind heart might wish to provide shelter to somebody with no home. But Oregon isn’t little Orphan Annie, despite having the same number of national championships. It’s not cute and sweet and deserving of love. Oregon football is a pernicious weed sucking the nutrients out of whatever soil it’s planted in. It’s a marketing gimmick built on a sneaker slush fund. It’s holding onto its (second-rate) place in college football only by breaking NCAA rules to take recruits from better programs because it knows that the NCAA can’t do anything about it right now. Oregon is the homeless guy you let into the house only to find that he walked out overnight along with your silverware, TV, and a bottle of liquor.

The Big Ten should not be extending Oregon a lifeline. USC certainly should not be doing so. Helping Oregon now right when they’re on the verge of going away forever is absurd. It’s like the slasher film where they think the killer is dead but they don’t put in a second bullet. They just turn the other way, so happy to be alive, and the monster starts to get up behind them, unseen. It’s like when the professional wrestler drops his opponent, and instead of finishing the match, he climbs on the ropes, faces the crowd, and celebrates prematurely. It’s dumb. It’s embarrassing and it’s dumb. USC should know better. The Trojans know what Oregon is. 

And where it is. Right now Oregon is on life support, sprawled out in the gutter boasting with alcohol breath about how much better it is than Colorado (which actually has a TV deal now) and how all of the conferences would be lucky to have the Ducks. 

Don’t do it, Big Ten. I don’t care if it’s profitable. Some money’s not worth having. Don’t do business with Oregon football. If you want more money, earn it doing something better for society, something not as gross and embarrassing: try selling meth or promoting cock fights. Don’t go down this road. Don’t help Oregon football. The Ducks are dying. Help them do that. 

Oh, I almost forgot: welcome Washington. We’re thrilled to have you.   

 

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Deej

Deej 76566

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5 minutes ago, TrashMaster G said:

Which moron said that?

Whatever guy is on the morning drive at 7:00. Some woman is his partner. I don't listen enough to know, and they recently canned the previous crew.  Also said aggy left in part due to the LHN. Obviously had an axe to grind as he said he's a Missouri guy and his school had a seat at the big boy table in the Big 8, but Texas (and apparently only Texas) turned them into a junior member of the Big 12, but now they are an equal with the other members of the SEC.

Just the same bullshit narrative the Texas alone destroys everything. 

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closetohumping

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6 hours ago, Hank_Hill said:

It’s a cripple fight, everyones a loser. One loser let a Mormon school into their conference though, and that’s fucking hilarious.

I just don’t know why everyone is rooting against the pac schools?  Looks like a couple of them will end up in the B1G. 
 

not sure why I should root for the big 12?  

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