Realignment talk not going away

[Francisco 2.0 32416]

 

 

 

[Hurtlocker 2213]

2 hours ago, billfromlaketravis said:

Should they add Oregon State and Wazzou, I think they’re a lock for the 5th auto bid. An undefeated AAC champion might challenge that, but that’s a pretty rare occurrence. 

My money is on the Sun Belt

[Sbbruin 21866]

2 hours ago, billfromlaketravis said:

Should they add Oregon State and Wazzou, I think they’re a lock for the 5th auto bid. An undefeated AAC champion might challenge that, but that’s a pretty rare occurrence. 

Agreed, win that conference win 1 loss or less and I think you get into the field of 12.

[billfromlaketravis 11522]

The talking heads seem to like the inclusivity, but viewers are going to get sick of the SEC beating the shit out of the AAC/Mountain West. 

I think Sankey cuts the auto bids from from 6 to 5 for 2024-2025. Probably goes to 4 in the next round. 

Yes, I think the Big 12 champ is safely in the top 4. 

[BachelorTrek 3060]

4 hours ago, FartingDreamer said:

They may have no option but to swallow their pride and join the MWC, either that or wave the white flag and join the Ivy League?

Or the WAC.  Lulz.

[NCMountaineer 100]

On 8/11/2023 at 1:15 PM, 'stache said:

Pure speculation on my part, but I have the sense that UNC and UVA like being the epicenter of the ACC. And for as good as they are academically and in basketball, their football teams have been perpetually mediocre and their football tv ratings are bad to mediocre. If FSU and Clemson leave, I think they could muster a decent tv contract and stay together. Unless, of course, ESPN and Fox decide they want it dead like the PAC.

Speaking to some people that I know that have the right connections in the area this is very much the case, especially when it comes to the Heels. UVA has more than its share of elitist snobbery but the general consensus I've gotten from some of the people I know is that UNC very much would prefer to be the ones calling the shots as much as possible in whatever conference they are in. The 100 million dollar question is if their egos will be willing to put up with being paid significantly less than they potentially could be paid in the B1G/SEC in order to keep calling the shots in the ACC. They're already the clear #4 of the remaining power conferences left, and that's going to only be exacerbated when FSU and Clemson bolt even if the only landing place is the Big 12 (it won't be). Are they really willing to make less than fucking West Virginia when there's even a partial value payment from the B1G out there to be had? The amazing part is that I'm not sure the answer is "no" to that simply from an ego standpoint with these guys.

[Al_4_ISU 12477]

3 hours ago, billfromlaketravis said:

Should they add Oregon State and Wazzou, I think they’re a lock for the 5th auto bid. An undefeated AAC champion might challenge that, but that’s a pretty rare occurrence. 

Yeah, as long as the current system is set up, that conference will get an autobid, and will be good late night fodder too

[gatormarc 911]

2 hours ago, Hagbard Celine said:

if you get a porch pineapple, how do you know where it came from?

and if you do know where it came from, if  you return the pineapple, does that mean "yes" or "no"?

what other fruits are involved in this radical new form of communication?

guessing bananas are involved somehow

or cucumbers

When life gives you pineapples, make tepache.

Edited August 12, 2023 by gatormarc

[TKthunder2 4997]

2 hours ago, billfromlaketravis said:

The talking heads seem to like the inclusivity, but viewers are going to get sick of the SEC beating the shit out of the AAC/Mountain West. 

I think Sankey cuts the auto bids from from 6 to 5 for 2024-2025. Probably goes to 4 in the next round. 

Yes, I think the Big 12 champ is safely in the top 4. 

I think it’ll either be all at large spots or it’ll be 4 autobids (and byes) to the highest ranked champs.

Personally I think only teams that wins their conference or play in their CCG should get to host as well. Would be some bullshit to have a Notre Dame team that only played 12 games with 3 weeks rest hosting a team that played a 13th game and lost with only 2 weeks of rest.

[billfromlaketravis 11522]

For reference, 9-4 Fresno State won the the Mountain West last year. Imagine them hosting Tennessee or Bama. 
 

Home CFP games sounds great, but they need to be very careful about it. 

[Zhorn96 1773]

Some interesting info/rumors in there

[billfromlaketravis 11522]

If they picked the top 12 last year, it would have been an all timer playoff. UW could arguably beat anybody except for Georgia.

[Uncle Nate 2097]

24 minutes ago, Zhorn96 said:

Some interesting info/rumors in there

Quote

3: FOX already knew the Pac-12 was going to implode several weeks before Colorado announced for the Big 12. 

Pretty sure most of us knew this months ago. 

[Sbbruin 21866]

25 minutes ago, billfromlaketravis said:

If they picked the top 12 last year, it would have been an all timer playoff. UW could arguably beat anybody except for Georgia.

Or UCLA.

and good luck with this, Beavs.  Actually would love to see a rebuilt PAC, but don’t see it happening.

 

[USC Traveler 488]

8 hours ago, CustersDoctor said:

BYU Fans looking stupid

 

That is hilarious- truly brings the lulz.

But it's also a 90 second encapsulation of what realignment is all about.  

There was only one school where someone knew the correct name of the team:   The Longhorns  

There were three logos where the school was correctly identified, but not the name of the team: Oklahoma, Arky and TCU.  But TCU is spelled out in the logo, so only a PAC12 President, Klownkoff or Clownzano could have screwed that up.

That's it.  These super-casuals recognized UT, plus OU and Arky (partially), while getting every other school wrong.  "Kentucky Toucans"🤣

//

This isn't a shot at the B12 programs.  It's going to be a really fun conference,and is solidly positioned to be the clear #3 conference post-ACC breakup.

But UT, OU, USC, and the established BIG and SEC schools are recognizable to even the most casual observers.  That's who the networks are looking at to boost ratings higher on more games throughout the year. (Ok, maybe not that particular group of people.😂) 

Going to be interesting to see the ratings in 2024 for the BIG and SEC games with the new teams involved.

Edited August 12, 2023 by USC Traveler

[The Hot Dog Buffet 1291]

48 minutes ago, USC Traveler said:

That is hilarious- truly brings the lulz.

But it's also a 90 second encapsulation of what realignment is all about.  

There was only one school where someone knew the correct name of the team:   The Longhorns  

There were three logos where the school was correctly identified, but not the name of the team: Oklahoma, Arky and TCU.  But TCU is spelled out in the logo, so only a PAC12 President, Klownkoff or Clownzano could have screwed that up.

That's it.  These super-casuals recognized UT, plus OU and Arky (partially), while getting every other school wrong.  "Kentucky Toucans"🤣

//

This isn't a shot at the B12 programs.  It's going to be a really fun conference,and is solidly positioned to be the clear #3 conference post-ACC breakup.

But UT, OU, USC, and the established BIG and SEC schools are recognizable to even the most casual observers.  That's who the networks are looking at to boost ratings higher on more games throughout the year. (Ok, maybe not that particular group of people.😂) 

Going to be interesting to see the ratings in 2024 for the BIG and SEC games with the new teams involved.

She didn't know the longhorns were UT, though. The old lady got West Virginia, but she called them the Volunteers.

Edited August 12, 2023 by The Hot Dog Buffet

[notre dame joe 195]

6 hours ago, Hagbard Celine said:

this one is egregious given every highschool girl in that video has dozens of friends who are going to SUU which is the san marcos of utah

Don't know Marcos but Cedar City is nice in the summer.  Years back I was able to stay in an empty SUU dorm for like $15.

3 hours ago, Zhorn96 said:

Some interesting info/rumors in there

sock-puppet.

[redswingline 1061]

On 8/11/2023 at 6:59 AM, hawkfan said:

Clemson is in a worse spot than FSU/Miami IMO.

They aren't an academic fit in the B1G

Fox, CBS and NBC did not sign huge contracts with the Big 10 because of it's students SAT scores.

[Tex Long 4431]

6 minutes ago, redswingline said:

Fox, CBS and NBC did not sign huge contracts with the Big 10 because of it's students SAT scores.

its

[Texas Wahoo 3403]

11 minutes ago, redswingline said:

Fox, CBS and NBC did not sign huge contracts with the Big 10 because of it's students SAT scores.

I’m pretty sure they did it to sell commercials in New York, LA, and Chicago. 

[TKthunder2 4997]

4 hours ago, billfromlaketravis said:

If they picked the top 12 last year, it would have been an all timer playoff. UW could arguably beat anybody except for Georgia.

With the setup I listed above

4 autobids/byes- UGA, Michigan, Clemson, Utah

host 1st round- TCU, K State, USC, Tulane*(16)

last in- tOSU, Bama, Tenn, Penn St

So Tulane would have been the highest ranked conference champ or CCG participant and this would have bumped Washington.

When conference move to divisionless setups for picking CCG participants Ohio State would have played Michigan in a rematch moving them into an host spot and Tulane would lose their spot to Washington.

4 autobids/byes- UGA, Michigan, Clemson, Utah

host 1st round- TCU, K State, USC, tOSU

last in- Bama, Tenn, Penn St, Washington

This setup looks to be more fair. Bama/Tenn who did not win or play for their CCG should not get to host over those that did.

With the new realignment to a mostly divisionless P4 you’ll see all 8 CCG participants in this field most years with an AAC/MWC champ sneaking in there occasionally over the 2nd place 3 loss ACC team. Put in a 50k seat minimum requirement to host but otherwise I think it would be a solid setup (until the ACC breaks).

[gatormarc 911]

1 hour ago, Texas Wahoo said:

I’m pretty sure they did it to sell commercials in New York, LA, and Chicago. 

Feels like the bubble is really close to popping when they are still pushing the idea of selling ads based on the size of the market rather than if anyone is actually watching them.

It's like how they keep bringing up Miami as an expansion option.

Sure they have no fanbase.

Sure no one in Miami watches them.

But Miami is a big market and we can sell ads like the first 2 sentences weren't true.

Edited August 13, 2023 by gatormarc

[Pasken 1309]

Would the big 10 have been a better long term play for Texas? Do we really think the SEC is going to continue its power in an era past free labor? The conference is composed of the poorest states in the country.

[BurntOrange&White 39962]

1 minute ago, Pasken said:

Would the big 10 have been a better long term play for Texas? Do we really think the SEC is going to continue its power in an era past free labor? The conference is composed of the poorest states in the country.

Yes, because SEC resides where majority of the talent in the country is, especially at defensive front 7 and offensive line. And we're aligned with schools that are willing to do whatever it takes to win/be sucessful.

 

Edited August 13, 2023 by BurntOrange&White

[HornsOverIthaca 2335]

All hail the Kentucky Toucans

[TKthunder2 4997]

31 minutes ago, Pasken said:

Would the big 10 have been a better long term play for Texas? Do we really think the SEC is going to continue its power in an era past free labor? The conference is composed of the poorest states in the country.

SEC is FAR better pound for pound and it’s not really close. The Big Ten has a lot of fat that will eventually need to be trimmed. Viewership aligns pretty closely to stadium size (excluding those with oversized off campus stadiums like Miami, UCLA, Temple, Pitt, UTSA, USF, Memphis, UNLV).

Below is the rank of on campus stadiums with more than 50k seats, BOLD= >75k

By capacity the SEC has 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 18, 20, 25, 28, 31, 33 (NR: Vanderbilt)

Big Ten has 1, 2, 3, 13, 15, 19, 21, 22, 23, 35, 39, 44, 45, 46, 47, 50 (off campus: UCLA)(NR: Northwestern)

ACC has 14, 16, 24, 29, 32, 38, 43, 49 (off campus: Miami, Pitt)(NR: Syracuse, BC, Duke, Wake)

ND is 17

B12 has 26, 30, 34, 36, 37, 40, 42, 48, 52, 53, 54 (NR: Baylor, TCU, UCF, UH, Cincy)

PAC4: 27, 51 (NR: OSU, WSU)

 

If you assume we’re moving to 3 Power conferences, outside of Vandy, every SEC school would be in the top 3rd. FSU/Clemson clearly make the cut and even UVA would make the top 3rd as well. Only UNC at 49 would fall outside the top 3rd.

If you look at realignment through this lens, it seems most likely that the bloated Big Ten would be more likely to split than the SEC which seems far more aligned.

[Tomatillo 354]

11 hours ago, NCMountaineer said:

Speaking to some people that I know that have the right connections in the area this is very much the case, especially when it comes to the Heels. UVA has more than its share of elitist snobbery but the general consensus I've gotten from some of the people I know is that UNC very much would prefer to be the ones calling the shots as much as possible in whatever conference they are in. The 100 million dollar question is if their egos will be willing to put up with being paid significantly less than they potentially could be paid in the B1G/SEC in order to keep calling the shots in the ACC. They're already the clear #4 of the remaining power conferences left, and that's going to only be exacerbated when FSU and Clemson bolt even if the only landing place is the Big 12 (it won't be). Are they really willing to make less than fucking West Virginia when there's even a partial value payment from the B1G out there to be had? The amazing part is that I'm not sure the answer is "no" to that simply from an ego standpoint with these guys.

UNC will stay with the ACC until it becomes obvious that the league will collapse. That’s their league and they’ll stay with it. 
 

I’d love they and UVa in the SEC, but not sure either is in the cards. FSU and Clempson don’t really bring much except an even shadier rep than most SEC programs. 

[Tomatillo 354]

3 hours ago, Pasken said:

Would the big 10 have been a better long term play for Texas? Do we really think the SEC is going to continue its power in an era past free labor? The conference is composed of the poorest states in the country.

Fla, Ga and Texas are not poor. They are the exact opposite. WV and NM are not SEC states. 
 

The B1G refused to play during covid and just added 4 schools that were in the P-12 when they basically canceled football. 
 

The B1G has had several shady and distasteful scandals at several of their core schools. Their culture is eroding. Why would you want to be a part of that? 

[CustersDoctor 584]

18 hours ago, CustersDoctor said:

BYU Fans looking stupid

 

4,5,3,X

X,2,1

[FartingDreamer 138]

6 minutes ago, CustersDoctor said:

4,5,3,X

X,2,1

123xx45  Damn. beat me to it

Edited August 13, 2023 by FartingDreamer

[gatormarc 911]

I see you both have completely opposite opinions of the softball pitcher look.

[DFW Horn 6156]

7 hours ago, Tomatillo said:

The B1G refused to play during covid and just added 4 schools that were in the P-12 when they basically canceled football. 

The B1G has had several shady and distasteful scandals at several of their core schools. Their culture is eroding. Why would you want to be a part of that? 

Plus, it's in the fucking Rust Belt with colder winters, declining populations, and fewer recruits. We can and will play Michigan, tOSU, and USC non-conference. 

Not a good fit for UT.

[thunderlounge 7912]

11 hours ago, Pasken said:

Would the big 10 have been a better long term play for Texas? Do we really think the SEC is going to continue its power in an era past free labor? The conference is composed of the poorest states in the country.

 

 

[Zhorn96 1773]

Long term play… pffft.  I think this Fox deal for 6 years is the deal before the deal.  40-48 split away in 2030 to play big boy football.  The rest fall away to G5 irrelevance.  Got to be in one of the remaining 4 conferences and prove you belong over the next 6 years.  The Vandys, Northwesterns, Indianas, etc will drop out in 2030 IMO

[thunderlounge 7912]

15 minutes ago, Zhorn96 said:

The Vandys, Northwesterns, Indianas, etc will drop out in 2030 IMO

At 48 teams, that’s 24 games/week for 12 weeks. Of that 288 game total, 144 will be losses.

Without some bottom feeders, where are the losses coming from?

Is 8-4 the new 10-2 or 11-1?

With a few exceptions, interest wanes when the losses become more frequent.

It might work in the NFL, but I’m not so sure about that at the collegiate level.

[Hurtlocker 2213]

not sure why the brightness went up to 11 but...interesting quote

[Gidnik 3285]

19 hours ago, Zhorn96 said:

Some interesting info/rumors in there

this account was more wrong on everything than that mhver3. Absolute shit account. 

[billfromlaketravis 11522]

15 hours ago, TKthunder2 said:

With the setup I listed above

4 autobids/byes- UGA, Michigan, Clemson, Utah

host 1st round- TCU, K State, USC, Tulane*(16)

last in- tOSU, Bama, Tenn, Penn St

So Tulane would have been the highest ranked conference champ or CCG participant and this would have bumped Washington.

When conference move to divisionless setups for picking CCG participants Ohio State would have played Michigan in a rematch moving them into an host spot and Tulane would lose their spot to Washington.

4 autobids/byes- UGA, Michigan, Clemson, Utah

host 1st round- TCU, K State, USC, tOSU

last in- Bama, Tenn, Penn St, Washington

This setup looks to be more fair. Bama/Tenn who did not win or play for their CCG should not get to host over those that did.

With the new realignment to a mostly divisionless P4 you’ll see all 8 CCG participants in this field most years with an AAC/MWC champ sneaking in there occasionally over the 2nd place 3 loss ACC team. Put in a 50k seat minimum requirement to host but otherwise I think it would be a solid setup (until the ACC breaks).

I heard Coug High has a good bleacher guy. 

[PittsburghTiger 6195]

 

 

 

Edited August 13, 2023 by PittsburghTiger

[Vertigo 20309]

32 minutes ago, PittsburghTiger said:

 

 

 

I am betting on 64 schools if they ever did this. 

[PittsburghTiger 6195]

Just now, Vertigo said:

I am betting on 64 schools if they ever did this. 

makes more sense, I agree. 

[camel at sea 589]

1 hour ago, Gidnik said:

this account was more wrong on everything than that mhver3. Absolute shit account. 

Yeah... that's the same person who used to post on message boards as NebFaninWi. I'm impressed that she successfully rebranded herself as a B1G insider on Twitter/X despite being a total lunatic.  

[LTtxfan 49332]

21 hours ago, Zhorn96 said:

Some interesting info/rumors in there

Full content

 

 Big Ten information. College football fan

 

@Genetics56

 

I had a nice dinner with my long-time friend in the athletic department. We talked at length about conference realignment, the future of college athletics based on what is currently known, and some inside conversations happening between athletic departments. I'm just going to share what is relevant to everyone.

 

1: Clemson and Florida State are waiting for the "signal" to leave. I don't know when that signal will be sent. The signal is essentially the Big Ten and the network partners telling Florida State and Clemson that they are ready to add a southern swing of schools. Big Ten commish can't just call and say "hey, it's time for your offer." FSU has a "home." The presidents of the schools will tell him to go and add the others after conversations with FOX/NBC/CBS. The networks want it. It isn't going to be just two schools down south when this is done. Target should be anywhere from 2 at first and then up to 4 or 5. The additions outside of FSU and Clemson will have to come in at a very low number like OR/WA did. so they will go to 20, but it isn't known how quickly they will go to more than 20 because of the GOR issues/cost that other schools will have. so this may have to be a long, bleeding process before it is in it's completed form. I'm told that the Big Ten would like to get UNC but they know that may not happen. The talk of UNC and UVA as the top targets or moved onto those two schools is not true. UVA has no shot at a Big Ten invite right now because FOX will not pay for it, just like they are not willing to pay for Cal and Stanford. FOX wants regional brands and rivalries in all regions to broadcast on their channels and the same with CBS and NBC. FOX is going to try and retain all content under their "umbrella" so they own the assets. From my understanding, rights will be acquired. What the expense is and who has to send the check, I don't know.

 

2: I was told several high level decision makers at Clemson would prefer to go to the Big Ten. They will have no issue of going to the SEC if they can't get into the Big Ten. There have been several back channel communications. Of course the Big Ten presidents want to move slower but FOX wants it done as quickly as they can.

 

3: FOX already knew the Pac-12 was going to implode several weeks before Colorado announced for the Big 12. FOX was ready to communicate to the Big Ten to get things going. Go back to when the Big Ten commish spoke at media days. He didn't say anything about not adding anymore schools for a reason. He just said the presidents didn't authorize him to do it (yet). The presidents of the Big Ten schools did not want to add those two schools for several years but had to do it now or lose them for the long-term. Many in the Big Ten are very, very happy with the last 4 conference additions. Now it's a matter of timing for when they add the southern wing to the conference. They want to be THE national conference and outside forces are not gong to be able to prevent that from happening.

 

4: The OR/WA ordeal was closer to falling apart than the public knows. They estimate that it will cost $10M annually in travel costs alone and having a payout of $30M, they will have fewer dollars to spend on other resources. FOX would only give them 1 million dollars annually for travel expenses, which is not the normal process. Usually a network will never agree to something like this. That goes to show how strong the relationship is between FOX and the Big Ten. It's a very healthy relationship.

 

5: There was no push back from USC and UCLA leaders for adding OR/WA even when they are not voting members. They don't view OR/WA additions will impact USC's ability to be the dominant brand out west.

 

6: There are serious conversations, at least at the athletic department level, for going to 10 conference games.

 

7: ESPN does not want to lose the ACC. That's been made clear by many communications among people. But they will also not pay a boat load of new money because they don't have the money to do it and don't have the authorization to do it.

 

8: The Big Ten isn't viewing Notre Dame as a must get to accomplish the national conference goal. That wasn't the case last summer as they tried to get Notre Dame to join.

 

The Big Ten and network partners are not worried about what the other conferences and networks do. They have complete control of the biggest brands out west, have the big brands in the Big Ten, will get their southern swing accomplished, and then later will get into Texas. There's nobody playing anyone to try and get any result. ESPN can't do anything unless their bosses sign off on it and right now they don't have authorization to make any new tv deals, etc.

[89Horn 1546]

36 minutes ago, Vertigo said:

I am betting on 64 schools if they ever did this. 

I agree.  I don’t know, maybe two divisions with four conferences.  Each of the four conferences could comprise of 16 schools each.  Maybe loosely organized by geographic region.  Does that sound crazy?

[camel at sea 589]

15 minutes ago, Vertigo said:

I am betting on 64 schools if they ever did this. 

At least 64.  The networks don't want to reduce total CFB inventory by reducing the number of teams in the field.  The 1-2M audience games are valuable and you don't want to throw too many of them away trying to create more 5M+ games.

If you can consolidate the big brands in the B1G and SEC, and pay them accordingly, there's no reason not to continue including a reshuffled and lesser paid B12, PAC, ACC, etc., at the top level of the sport.  The expanded CFP makes that easier.  You just need to structure the playoff in a way where the first round games are interesting.  Generally speaking, CFB has about 3-4 teams every year who are dominant and a lot of parity between 5 and 15... so that's doable.  Assume you get 4 first round byes for those four dominant teams, the other games should usually be good.

[USC Traveler 488]

2 hours ago, Gidnik said:

this account was more wrong on everything than that mhver3. Absolute shit account. 

I agree for the most part, but they called the BIG having renewed talks with UW and UO on July 28th- 5 days before Wetzel's story broke on 8-2.

The premise was that Fox didn't want to lose UW/UO to the B12, so they were going to step up the $ to make those schools non-dilutive.

They mentioned an OSU insider, which makes me think it came from an OSU board, just like the "USC coaching search updates" they were tweeting two years ago were coming off my 247 board.

Still, I'll give credit where credit is due on the UW/UO call, even if it was regurgitated from an OSU board, as whatever OSU insider they were parroting turned out to be right.

 

[redswingline 1061]

18 hours ago, Tex Long said:

its

Tell that to my phone's autocorrect feature.

[Al_4_ISU 12477]

I am betting on 64 schools if they ever did this. 

Yeah, the only way this works is to make a very small elite division or something fairly inclusive. A 40 team breakaway ends with a lot of disinterested fans

[Pato del Muerto 52571]

2 hours ago, PittsburghTiger said:

 

 

 

Really fucking cute putting aggy in dfw.  

[Hagbard Celine 10909]

10 hours ago, CustersDoctor said:

4,5,3,X

X,2,1