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Realignment talk not going away


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2 minutes ago, Huckleberry said:

Minnesota is a powerhouse because of the Nagurski Award. 

Huck you're a smart guy. Would you take Minny's next 10 seasons over SMU's next 10 seasons?

Wait - keep in mind TCU and Baylor just dropped their home openers. 

Edited by ztejas
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Utah is going be a problem as long as Whittingham is their HC. They seem to have a pretty clean succession plan, but the program will dip when he retires.

I think TCU has the nicest house on the block. Location and recent winning tradition. The Colorado loss is a black eye, but they’ll bounce back. As Joe and Gus pointed out yesterday, they’re always going to be a top portal destination.

Colorado is interesting. Deion has the cult of personality thing going, but most recruits will acknowledge it’s a circus. Some will want to join, many others won’t. 
 

Tech is just too far from the Metroplex and Houston. I wonder if they’ll see a bump with Arizona recruits after 2024? 

Edited by billfromlaketravis
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On 9/1/2023 at 8:54 PM, Doc Sam Beckett said:

Lol I know you hate the ACC, but what a load of shit. Average strength? 

College basketball championships:

Big 12: 2022, 2021, 2008

ACC: 2019, 2017, 2015, 2010, 2009 etc etc

College football championships:

Big 12: 2005, 2000 (UT, OU) both leaving 

ACC: 2018, 2016, 2013, 2001, 1999...

 

You can hang your hat on "average strength," which I'm not sure I even agree with, but who gives a shit if KSU beats Pitt in week 3. One thing nobody is talking about is whether the Big 12 can even maintain decent  recruiting without bellcows Texas and Oklahoma. I don't think we're going to see any Big 12 teams in the top 15 of recruiting rankings anytime soon moving forward. I also don't see any team in the new Big 12 that's going to win a national championship in football any time soon. I do see that in the ACC. As far as basketball, I'd call it a wash at best. 

I know you hate the R8, but you didn't address my points.

2022 Massey composite:

1 SEC 32.65

2 Big 12 39.09

3 Big 10 47.67

4 Pac 12 49.85

5 ACC 53.94

Take out UT 17, OU 43 and add Cincy 39, UCF 42, UH 57 and BYU 59 and the Big 12 average is 44.  Still in 2nd.  Throw in Utah 11, Arizona 71, ASU 95 and CU 119 lowers it to 51.5, but ACC is adding SMU 63, Cal 79 and Stanford 92 lowering theirs to 58.2, still well below.  Except for KU, the bottom half of the Big 12 can beat you on a given day.  Same isn't true of the ACC.  Clemson being really good doesn't change the bottom half of the ACC being bad.  Kentucky and Florida making several trips to the final 4 doesn't make the SEC 14 a good basketball conference.

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6 minutes ago, bullet said:

I know you hate the R8, but you didn't address my points.

2022 Massey composite:

1 SEC 32.65

2 Big 12 39.09

3 Big 10 47.67

4 Pac 12 49.85

5 ACC 53.94

Take out UT 17, OU 43 and add Cincy 39, UCF 42, UH 57 and BYU 59 and the Big 12 average is 44.  Still in 2nd.  Throw in Utah 11, Arizona 71, ASU 95 and CU 119 lowers it to 51.5, but ACC is adding SMU 63, Cal 79 and Stanford 92 lowering theirs to 58.2, still well below.  Except for KU, the bottom half of the Big 12 can beat you on a given day.  Same isn't true of the ACC.  Clemson being really good doesn't change the bottom half of the ACC being bad.  Kentucky and Florida making several trips to the final 4 doesn't make the SEC 14 a good basketball conference.

Congrats, the Big 12 was better in football than the ACC last year. How does that look for the last 10 years? How does that look for the last 10 years without Texas and Oklahoma? 

I don't know why you guys keep hanging your hat on the mid to lower teams in the conferences. Okay, Wake Forest would probably lose to ASU....who gives a shit. Moving forward the ACC and the Big 12 are similar except for Clemson and FSU, and that's what's going to separate them.

And again, I've asked, but nobody has answered. What happens to recruiting when you aren't playing Texas and Oklahoma yearly? How is any Big 12 team going to maintain a yearly top 15 ranking? 

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Aranda is in danger of having the wheels come off of that program.  The good news for them is that if that happens, there will be good coaches lining up for the job.  The biggest issue seems to be getting their NIL up to speed, but they'll get there.  SMU probably just motivated some more of the folks there with deep pockets.  

Tech looked like a team that got a big lead, started looking ahead, and couldn't turn it back on again once the game turned into a fight.  

TCU-Colorado was a weird game.  Neither team had film on each other, or a good read on their respective personnel.  Colorado's OL pass blocked well but couldn't run block.  In a few weeks, with film on what they do, defenses might figure them out a little bit.  It might have been a pretty bad thing for the Frogs to play them in week 1.  TCU's defense looks like it sucks.  They're going to have to outscore people all year.  Most of the offenses in the Big 12 looked bad in week 1, so they might be able to do that.

A lot of the B12 (Irate8) looks like it has taken a step back.  Maybe those COVID super seniors propped up the depth of the league and it's returning to the mean a little bit.  Texas, KState, and OU appear to be the only Big 12 teams that might be good on both sides of the ball.  Destroying a Sun Belt team in Week 1 isn't something OU has been capable of doing in the last few years.  SMU will tell us a lot about how much OU has improved on defense (if at all.)  The Ponies have one of the most talented G5 rosters (offense especially) in the country. 

Edited by camel at sea
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9 hours ago, billfromlaketravis said:

Tech is just too far from the Metroplex and Houston. I wonder if they’ll see a bump with Arizona recruits after 2024? 

What?

You think Lubbock will be more alluring for a Phoenix, suburb kid, than DFW & Houston recruits? Why? It's 750+ miles away and 11+ hours on the road.

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4 hours ago, bullet said:

I know you hate the R8, but you didn't address my points.

2022 Massey composite:

1 SEC 32.65

2 Big 12 39.09

3 Big 10 47.67

4 Pac 12 49.85

5 ACC 53.94

Take out UT 17, OU 43 and add Cincy 39, UCF 42, UH 57 and BYU 59 and the Big 12 average is 44.  Still in 2nd.  Throw in Utah 11, Arizona 71, ASU 95 and CU 119 lowers it to 51.5, but ACC is adding SMU 63, Cal 79 and Stanford 92 lowering theirs to 58.2, still well below.  Except for KU, the bottom half of the Big 12 can beat you on a given day.  Same isn't true of the ACC.  Clemson being really good doesn't change the bottom half of the ACC being bad.  Kentucky and Florida making several trips to the final 4 doesn't make the SEC 14 a good basketball conference.

you want to play some fun math? The Big 12 lost roughly $900 million in valuation due to the loss of Oklahoma and Texas after adding 8 schools to try and make up the difference. Without those 8 schools, the loss in valuation was about $1.7 billion. Meaning those 8 schools combined weren't worth even half of OU and Texas.

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2 hours ago, camel at sea said:

Aranda is in danger of having the wheels come off of that program.  The good news for them is that if that happens, there will be good coaches lining up for the job.  The biggest issue seems to be getting their NIL up to speed, but they'll get there.  SMU probably just motivated some more of the folks there with deep pockets.  

Tech looked like a team that got a big lead, started looking ahead, and couldn't turn it back on again once the game turned into a fight.  

TCU-Colorado was a weird game.  Neither team had film on each other, or a good read on their respective personnel.  Colorado's OL pass blocked well but couldn't run block.  In a few weeks, with film on what they do, defenses might figure them out a little bit.  It might have been a pretty bad thing for the Frogs to play them in week 1.  TCU's defense looks like it sucks.  They're going to have to outscore people all year.  Most of the offenses in the Big 12 looked bad in week 1, so they might be able to do that.

A lot of the B12 (Irate8) looks like it has taken a step back.  Maybe those COVID super seniors propped up the depth of the league and it's returning to the mean a little bit.  Texas, KState, and OU appear to be the only Big 12 teams that might be good on both sides of the ball.  Destroying a Sun Belt team in Week 1 isn't something OU has been capable of doing in the last few years.  SMU will tell us a lot about how much OU has improved on defense (if at all.)  The Ponies have one of the most talented G5 rosters (offense especially) in the country. 

KSU seems like they are in good hands. WVU is going sideways - Neal will get fired if they don't hit at least 7 wins. OU obliterated a once-proud Arkansas St program, which has fallen on hard times the past few seasons. KU beat a high school team. Utah has QB problems but good defense. tcu has no defense. Baylor will be hiring a new coach in 2 years. ISU - can't get a read on them from the high school team they played. I didn't watch byu/cincy/cougar high or ucf

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5 hours ago, redswingline said:

KSU seems like they are in good hands. WVU is going sideways - Neal will get fired if they don't hit at least 7 wins. OU obliterated a once-proud Arkansas St program, which has fallen on hard times the past few seasons. KU beat a high school team. Utah has QB problems but good defense. tcu has no defense. Baylor will be hiring a new coach in 2 years. ISU - can't get a read on them from the high school team they played. I didn't watch byu/cincy/cougar high or ucf

The high school team we played normally pushes us to the wire, and we would have beat them 50-0 if our starters had stayed in all game.

I’m not sure it means anything, but when we comfortably beat Northern Iowa, it tends to go on to be a decent year.

Edited by Al_4_ISU
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19 hours ago, Doc Sam Beckett said:

Congrats, the Big 12 was better in football than the ACC last year. How does that look for the last 10 years? How does that look for the last 10 years without Texas and Oklahoma? 

I don't know why you guys keep hanging your hat on the mid to lower teams in the conferences. Okay, Wake Forest would probably lose to ASU....who gives a shit. Moving forward the ACC and the Big 12 are similar except for Clemson and FSU, and that's what's going to separate them.

And again, I've asked, but nobody has answered. What happens to recruiting when you aren't playing Texas and Oklahoma yearly? How is any Big 12 team going to maintain a yearly top 15 ranking? 

It looks the same way the last 10 years.

As for recruiting, who knows.  But then has TCU had a top 15 recruiting rating, ever?  There are only about 20 schools who have the capability to run a string of top 15 ratings.

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15 hours ago, camel at sea said:

Aranda is in danger of having the wheels come off of that program.  The good news for them is that if that happens, there will be good coaches lining up for the job.  The biggest issue seems to be getting their NIL up to speed, but they'll get there.  SMU probably just motivated some more of the folks there with deep pockets.  

Tech looked like a team that got a big lead, started looking ahead, and couldn't turn it back on again once the game turned into a fight.  

TCU-Colorado was a weird game.  Neither team had film on each other, or a good read on their respective personnel.  Colorado's OL pass blocked well but couldn't run block.  In a few weeks, with film on what they do, defenses might figure them out a little bit.  It might have been a pretty bad thing for the Frogs to play them in week 1.  TCU's defense looks like it sucks.  They're going to have to outscore people all year.  Most of the offenses in the Big 12 looked bad in week 1, so they might be able to do that.

A lot of the B12 (Irate8) looks like it has taken a step back.  Maybe those COVID super seniors propped up the depth of the league and it's returning to the mean a little bit.  Texas, KState, and OU appear to be the only Big 12 teams that might be good on both sides of the ball.  Destroying a Sun Belt team in Week 1 isn't something OU has been capable of doing in the last few years.  SMU will tell us a lot about how much OU has improved on defense (if at all.)  The Ponies have one of the most talented G5 rosters (offense especially) in the country. 

TCU lost a load of starters.  It was a very junior-senior laden team last year.

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9 hours ago, Al_4_ISU said:

The high school team we played normally pushes us to the wire, and we would have beat them 50-0 if our starters had stayed in all game.

I’m not sure it means anything, but when we comfortably beat Northern Iowa, it tends to go on to be a decent year.

I assume that is because of an established local rivalry. That's the way those types of games often go. I don't think games like that can give us much of a read on the future. I've seen plenty of 'bad' teams play a better team very close and it makes people wonder what happened - except for those 'in' that rivalry who know better.  That's part of the beauty of college football and it's something that cross-country conferences and realignment is chipping away at.

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2 hours ago, The Hot Dog Buffet said:

The best FCS teams are better than the worst FBS teams, especially week 1. Northern Iowa has a history of giving ISU all they can handle because the front end talent at ISU hasn't been good enough to blow them out.

My wife was a heptathlete at UNI and is a huge Panther fan, as is her whole family.  This game has been the bane of my existence for years.  We rarely shit can them, and it’s a true cause for celebration when we do.

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13 hours ago, redswingline said:

I'm sure the name "Davey" was just fine in the 1910s.

Today, it's best suited for a Disney movie or something on the Hallmark channel.

Or Boston.

Will:
Marky, Ricky, Danny, Terry, Mikey, Davey, Timmy, Tommy, Joey, Robby, Johnny, and Brian.

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14 hours ago, Al_4_ISU said:

My wife was a heptathlete at UNI and is a huge Panther fan, as is her whole family.  This game has been the bane of my existence for years.  We rarely shit can them, and it’s a true cause for celebration when we do.

When we were both at our respective (rival) grad schools, my wife's team was in the middle of the longest win streak in the rivalry's history. It sucked. 

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9 minutes ago, LTbear said:

When we were both at our respective (rival) grad schools, my wife's team was in the middle of the longest win streak in the rivalry's history. It sucked. 

The thing that irritates ISU fans so much is that most Northern Iowa fans (my in-laws are an exception as they're truly UNI fans above all else) are bigger Iowa fans than they are fans of their own school, so the whole Cy-Hawk thing seeps into the ISU/UNI dynamic.  ISU fans mock them for not really being fans of their own school, and UNI has kind of a reputation of being a suitcase school where everyone leaves town on the weekends to either go back to their home town (usually some small town in northern Iowa), or party in one of the other college towns.

So most UNI fans are bigger Iowa fans, and are way more obnoxious about their Iowa fandom than people who actually go to U of I.  UNI's coach openly talks down about ISU, and just showers Iowa with praise - even when they play them.  UNI has literally TRIED to lose to Iowa when they had them on the ropes, lest they give their beloved Hawkeyes a black eye, but they fucking live for beating ISU (even though it really doesn't make a shit in their ability to win the MVFC or play in the FCS playoffs).

I fucking hate playing those guys, and losing to them is the absolute worst.  Plus, it's historically a guarantee that ISU isn't going to a bowl game.

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1 hour ago, Al_4_ISU said:

The thing that irritates ISU fans so much is that most Northern Iowa fans (my in-laws are an exception as they're truly UNI fans above all else) are bigger Iowa fans than they are fans of their own school, so the whole Cy-Hawk thing seeps into the ISU/UNI dynamic.  ISU fans mock them for not really being fans of their own school, and UNI has kind of a reputation of being a suitcase school where everyone leaves town on the weekends to either go back to their home town (usually some small town in northern Iowa), or party in one of the other college towns.

So most UNI fans are bigger Iowa fans, and are way more obnoxious about their Iowa fandom than people who actually go to U of I.  UNI's coach openly talks down about ISU, and just showers Iowa with praise - even when they play them.  UNI has literally TRIED to lose to Iowa when they had them on the ropes, lest they give their beloved Hawkeyes a black eye, but they fucking live for beating ISU (even though it really doesn't make a shit in their ability to win the MVFC or play in the FCS playoffs).

I fucking hate playing those guys, and losing to them is the absolute worst.  Plus, it's historically a guarantee that ISU isn't going to a bowl game.

Well that sounds like hell

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Some super broad Week 1 takes going on here. I'm surprised by Coach Prime's opening game, but not ready to crown him the next Saban. Clemson looks to be in trouble. Iowa State is gonna win it all. Tech can suck my nut. Time to finally tell Baylor their not allowed to play high level sports anymore, as should have happened years ago. The latter has nothing to do with losing to TSU.

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14 minutes ago, 'stache said:

Some super broad Week 1 takes going on here. I'm surprised by Coach Prime's opening game, but not ready to crown him the next Saban. Clemson looks to be in trouble. Iowa State is gonna win it all. Tech can suck my nut. Time to finally tell Baylor their not allowed to play high level sports anymore, as should have happened years ago. The latter has nothing to do with losing to TSU.

TSU?

 

edit: Texas State, got it, I never see them listed as TSU (TX St)

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On 9/1/2023 at 2:29 PM, statsman said:

You made the argument that the B12 had more prestige than the ACC, less FSU, Clemson and UNC. That you’re now also taking away Miami and Virginia is a sign that even you realize that doesn’t hold up. 
 
Georgia Tech, Stanford, Cal, UVA, BC, Pittsburgh- those are a lot of schools with money and history of success. If their administrations decide they want to be very good at football and basketball, they will be very good at football and basketball. 
 
Baylor, TCU, OSU, KSU and ISU are at program heights. That’s great, but the things you believe make that success sustainable (good fan support, university leadership) have also been there when they were jokes. 
 
Now, don’t get me wrong. I’m not pulling for SMU’s success. I don’t really like them, just as I don’t really like the IR8. I’m just aware that they (SMU) have a plan, and it’s a good one. It almost worked before, and that was with a mediocre coach like Bobby Collins. 
 
I find it humorous how the IR8 have worked to keep SMU out of their club and SMU crashed in anyway, by buying a table. 

Once FSU, Clemson and UNC bolt...?

On 9/1/2023 at 3:08 PM, ButtFumble said:

https://www.thecentersquare.com/north_carolina/article_5d0fb188-3e25-11ea-bd19-a727caa23dd9.html

the above link is a bit dated of course, but it shows the private schools in addition to the public ones

https://sports.usatoday.com/ncaa/finances

this link shows the 2022 numbers

rev.thumb.jpg.6b8af31157ba0cb52fbf98263879d204.jpg

the above is from the USA Today showing where programs stand if you remove the academic side subsidy because IMO no one should be impressed that a school can spend a lot of tuition and student fee money on athletics and call it "revenue" all the more so well beyond student approved fees

when you look at those list the Big 12 is pretty cohesive as a conference and has programs that are pretty well in the middle of the P5 budget wise especially without subsidies.....in addition the Big 12 has very low subsidies and if you look at the USA Today links for each program the Big 12 has been moving to reduce academic side subsidies for a number of years.....da covid hurt those efforts, but I am sure they will get right back on track

the ACC has a lot of very high subsidy programs and if you go with the idea that their private schools that are at the mid to ower levels budget wise in the 2018 data have probably not found massive sources of new revenues then the Big 12 is pretty competitive and the Big 12 has really avoided the very bottom of the P5 budgets where the PAC 12 had a much greater number of teams and where some ACC private teams are

with the Big 12 BYU and Cincy should be able to reduce their subsidies a great deal and still have a good budget with an eventual full Big 12 share.....only UH (of course) will really be sucking ass with a reduced subsidy or sucking ass with a massively embarrassing subsidy (and no their alumni and donors are not going to step up that is all UH bullshit)

the Big 12 will be getting a slight bump with the new contract (probably $1 to $2 million per member) over the end of the current deal and it will scale up from there.....while the ACC will have the new money from StanCaMu to split up, but otherwise they are in the same deal as now for another 12 or so years

and if any of the top teams leave the ACC you have to wonder what ESPN will do with their contract

and the Big 12 will sign another new deal long before the ACC does

so the Big 12 is pretty competitive money wise with the ACC with the exception of Louisville, FSU, and Clemson, but on the bottom end the Big 12 looks a lot better IMO

in addition Cal is just a fucking financial disaster with an $18 million per year debt service coming up and debt that will last them for another 60 fucking years.....and they are not taking a lot less money than in the PAC 12....SMU will see a bump overall, but they will probably remain in the bottom of P5 budgets long term

BYU's athletic department isn't subsidized by any outside source. It is completely self-funded as required by the school.  

On 9/1/2023 at 11:14 PM, ztejas said:

Texas and OU are gone from the B12 after this season. We'll see how long Clemson and FSU stick around but their exit is more problematic and will likely take awhile to manufacture.

I'm actually double biased because I'm a die hard Texas fan that went to SMU. So you should really hate me. 

We'll see what happens in further realignment. Like I said - you are entering uncharted waters with Texas and OU leaving. I think that is going to fuck up your conference a lot more than you think it's going to, but we'll see.

As it stands we have 2/2 and the rest. We may wind up with a power 3 or we may settle in to a power 4. 

The Big 12 will be just fine without TX and OU.  Though that's not what you are hoping for.

Edited by FartingDreamer
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7 minutes ago, FartingDreamer said:

Once FSU, Clemson and UNC bolt...?

BYU's athletic department isn't subsidized by any outside source. It is completely self-funded as required by the school.  

The Big 12 will be just fine without TX and OU.  Though that's not what you are hoping for.

Oh, I can see. The Big XII will be just fine, once they figure out how to navigate past Wyoming, and Texas State. Very timely comment you made. 

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12 minutes ago, statsman said:

Oh, I can see. The Big XII will be just fine, once they figure out how to navigate past Wyoming, and Texas State. Very timely comment you made. 

Good point. Might as well cancel the tv contract and drop to DII. You realize that most of us legacy XII fans take as much joy in those losses as you, right? 

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13 minutes ago, statsman said:

Oh, I can see. The Big XII will be just fine, once they figure out how to navigate past Wyoming, and Texas State. Very timely comment you made. 

Texas State does get a couple more chances to torment the Big 12 starting a H&H with Arizona State next year. Kinda feel like if the Bobcats win one of those may not get any more Big 12 series lined up for a while, the in state schools certainly won't want to risk getting the smoke like Baylor.

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18 minutes ago, 'stache said:

Good point. Might as well cancel the tv contract and drop to DII. You realize that most of us legacy XII fans take as much joy in those losses as you, right? 

That SEC transition starting early...

Seriously though, I saw that Baylor game and all I could think of was "another win out there!" and not "what will they say about the Big 12????"

Edited by Al_4_ISU
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23 minutes ago, 'stache said:

Good point. Might as well cancel the tv contract and drop to DII. You realize that most of us legacy XII fans take as much joy in those losses as you, right? 

Context. Did you see who I was replying to?

I hope the IR8 have a board ready for him; in a few months, you’ll need it. 

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21 minutes ago, statsman said:

Context. Did you see who I was replying to?

I hope the IR8 have a board ready for him; in a few months, you’ll need it. 

Yeah, BYU guy is annoying, I've been negged by him multiple times, doesn't change the fact that the extent of your hatred of the Big XII overall is bizarre. The comment you specifically mentioned was "The Big 12 will be just fine without TX and OU" which is true. We'll be paid what we're worth and it is pretty good under the circumstances. There's plenty of middle ground between BIG/SEC and complete irrelevance. We're below those two in prestige and well above the G5, and will be compensated accordingly. The networks aren't going to reneg because two traditionally middling Big XII teams shit the bed in Week 1.

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30 minutes ago, Evil Bill Obrien said:

Texas State does get a couple more chances to torment the Big 12 starting a H&H with Arizona State next year. Kinda feel like if the Bobcats win one of those may not get any more Big 12 series lined up for a while, the in state schools certainly won't want to risk getting the smoke like Baylor.

Obviously, it won't be Big12 then, but Texas has a game with Texas State in 2026.

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39 minutes ago, Evil Bill Obrien said:

Texas State does get a couple more chances to torment the Big 12 starting a H&H with Arizona State next year. Kinda feel like if the Bobcats win one of those may not get any more Big 12 series lined up for a while, the in state schools certainly won't want to risk getting the smoke like Baylor.

All you have to do to beat them is not put a dog shit team on the field.

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1 hour ago, statsman said:

Oh, I can see. The Big XII will be just fine, once they figure out how to navigate past Wyoming, and Texas State. Very timely comment you made. 

Ooh, what a sick burn.  You totally got me there.  I guess the SEC has been struggling mightily since BAMA lost to UL Monroe back in 2007, how on earth did they recover?

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5 minutes ago, 'stache said:

ASU may very well be an undertog to TXST next year. ASU is a big school with a good fanbase, but they haven't done anything of note in football in recent memory.

Yeah, they are going to have to start taking football seriously if they want to win more than 3 games per year in the big 12.

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15 minutes ago, 'stache said:

ASU may very well be an undertog to TXST next year. ASU is a big school with a good fanbase, but they haven't done anything of note in football in recent memory.

ASU is a landmine of potential but with a shitty culture and track record of poor leadership and no vision holding it back from that potential.  

Edited by FartingDreamer
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