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Realignment talk not going away

The Tower

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Posted by Sandbagging Steve,

How many teams will be left when the dust settles in a few years? I think there's a way for all the teams to still have some involvement. I will explain that at the end of this list. Here's my list of the top 32 programs and a list if it goes to 48. There's some debate if it goes to 48, but not much debate if it stops at 32. I guess one could debate Arizona State, but that's about it. The top 32 at least come close to carrying their own weight. Everyone below that line is losing money for t

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Aggy should abstain so the vote is 13-0 and then we can then brand it on their dog.

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Jabberwocky

Jabberwocky 1666

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6 hours ago, notre dame joe said:

It seems somewhat straightforward to me.  These contracts all purportedly have a clause that say a member loses voting rights when they withdraw or let everyone know they are going to. 

This.

It is clear in the bylaws, and from recent precedent, that a school loses board voting rights upon notice of withdrawal. All of these universities that are leaving have had regents meetings where they voted on leaving the conference, and they have all made announcements of their decicions to leave the Pac 12. This is pretty straight forward.

If the teams wanted to liquidate and distribute Pac 12 assets, they should have held a vote to dissolve before they actually left the conference.

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Ghost of LL

Ghost of LL 15531

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1 hour ago, ztejas said:

fans GIF

I argued for years that the Big12 ought to do something similar with the AAC.

As we see this week, the Big12 has tons of inventory that absolutely nobody cares about.  Oklahoma State @ Iowa State?  Texas Tech @ West Virginia?  Who the fuck cares?  Those are shitty games between programs that have limited followings.

But that Iowa State-Baylor game in November if the loser is getting relegated to the AAC?  Are you watching that?  Fuck yeah, you are.

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ztejas

ztejas 43411

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3 minutes ago, Ghost of LL said:

I argued for years that the Big12 ought to do something similar with the AAC.

As we see this week, the Big12 has tons of inventory that absolutely nobody cares about.  Oklahoma State @ Iowa State?  Texas Tech @ West Virginia?  Who the fuck cares?  Those are shitty games between programs that have limited followings.

But that Iowa State-Baylor game in November if the loser is getting relegated to the AAC?  Are you watching that?  Fuck yeah, you are.

It would be fun but they will never get ADs to agree to it - let alone work out a media deal.

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Ghost of LL

Ghost of LL 15531

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3 minutes ago, ztejas said:

It would be fun but they will never get ADs to agree to it - let alone work out a media deal.

I don't think the media deal is that big a challenge.  This is for football only; basketball and other sports are separate.  And in football, the Big12 gets its media deal; the AAC gets its.  So if you get relegated, you lose out on the Big12 money the next year.  So that is to say you lose out on about $25M.

Which gets to the ADs' objection.  And you're right about that.  It would take some truly urgent circumstances to get the schools to agree to that.  But right now, the PAC2 and MWC are facing exactly those urgent circumstances.  So it might work.

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Horn of Gabriel

Horn of Gabriel 1614

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9 minutes ago, Ghost of LL said:

I don't think the media deal is that big a challenge.  This is for football only; basketball and other sports are separate.  And in football, the Big12 gets its media deal; the AAC gets its.  So if you get relegated, you lose out on the Big12 money the next year.  So that is to say you lose out on about $25M.

Which gets to the ADs' objection.  And you're right about that.  It would take some truly urgent circumstances to get the schools to agree to that.  But right now, the PAC2 and MWC are facing exactly those urgent circumstances.  So it might work.

Going negative $25MM YoY means the athletics departments are cutting entire sports at that point.  Most of these schools are already subsidizing the AD either with direct transfers or high student fees.  It also makes any type of long term planning very difficult or impossible - how do you spent on facilities or fund raise at that point, it's super tough.  Same reason the PAC schools turned down Apple's earn-it offering; it's lack of guarantees.  On top of all that, the low/no/negative rev sports are typically women's sports so now there's a Title IX issue on top of all of that...

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Doc Daneeka

Doc Daneeka 6769

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11 minutes ago, ztejas said:

The B12 and AAC deals are based on which teams are in the conference. I doubt you get a network to agree to a deal when you can't guarantee which teams it will be.

Maybe not, but the total pool includes all the same teams, plus something that adds additional interest. Promotion and relegation add interest at the bottom of the Big 12 and top of AAC that wouldn’t currently exist. 

But, yeah…

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Texas Wahoo

Texas Wahoo 3390

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46 minutes ago, Ghost of LL said:

But that Iowa State-Baylor game in November if the loser is getting relegated to the AAC?  Are you watching that?  Fuck yeah, you are.

It would definitely add a bit more intrigue - probably enough to get me to follow the game or check on the score, but probably not enough for me to watch the game.  If I don't care about Baylor or Iowa State games in general, am I really going to care which conference each of those teams is going to be playing in next year?

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Texas Wahoo

Texas Wahoo 3390

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Posted
14 minutes ago, statsman said:

The first step to a relegation system will be a conference deciding it wants a salary cap. 

There is no way to implement a salary cap without first determining the players are employees, then having them form a union, and then having them negotiate with the conference/teams for a system that includes a salary cap.  Without that, it is clearly an antitrust violation.

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bullet 1596

Posted
Posted
8 hours ago, Ghost of LL said:

I argued for years that the Big12 ought to do something similar with the AAC.

As we see this week, the Big12 has tons of inventory that absolutely nobody cares about.  Oklahoma State @ Iowa State?  Texas Tech @ West Virginia?  Who the fuck cares?  Those are shitty games between programs that have limited followings.

But that Iowa State-Baylor game in November if the loser is getting relegated to the AAC?  Are you watching that?  Fuck yeah, you are.

Kind of like Maryland and Purdue Big 10 games on NBC?  I think they can't wait until the Big 10 expands to 18.

https://www.sportsmediawatch.com/college-football-tv-ratings/

Prime time Syracuse-Purdue drew 1.25 million on NBC, 12th for the day, behind Michigan's buy a win on BTN, Minnesota-UNC on ESPN, LSU-MSU on ESPN and 8 other games, including some buy a wins.

Previous week Charlotte-Maryland on NBC prime time drew 665k, #17 for the week, behind Okie St.-Arizona St. on FS1, Illinois-Kansas and Ole-Miss Tulane on ESPN2 as well as 13 other games, most less than stellar matchups.

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TKthunder2

TKthunder2 4985

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38 minutes ago, bullet said:

Kind of like Maryland and Purdue Big 10 games on NBC?  I think they can't wait until the Big 10 expands to 18.

https://www.sportsmediawatch.com/college-football-tv-ratings/

Prime time Syracuse-Purdue drew 1.25 million on NBC, 12th for the day, behind Michigan's buy a win on BTN, Minnesota-UNC on ESPN, LSU-MSU on ESPN and 8 other games, including some buy a wins.

Previous week Charlotte-Maryland on NBC prime time drew 665k, #17 for the week, behind Okie St.-Arizona St. on FS1, Illinois-Kansas and Ole-Miss Tulane on ESPN2 as well as 13 other games, most less than stellar matchups.

LOL Week 3 PAC12 viewership 

1. CSU at Colorado 9.3 million 
2. SDSU at Oregon St 418K
3. Fresno St at Arizona St 195k
4. ????

This Colorado thing is bonkers.

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bullet 1596

Posted
Posted
14 minutes ago, TKthunder2 said:

LOL Week 3 PAC12 viewership 

1. CSU at Colorado 9.3 million 
2. SDSU at Oregon St 418K
3. Fresno St at Arizona St 195k
4. ????

This Colorado thing is bonkers.

Prime Time does know how to promote himself.  That was the highest rated after dark game ever.

I still don't know how good a coach he will be, but he is a GREAT salesman.

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Magus Ossis

Magus Ossis 2797

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Posted

The relegation model would not necessarily have to have a major impact on either the $ going to each school or to the teams available for the media contract if the relegation is internal to the PacWC or the B12. You arrange the schedule so that both the upper and lower divisions play complete round robins at their respective levels. Unless/until those leagues get more members, you probably have some cross-division games. You might protect a rivalry or two. If two conferences introduced the model, they could arrange inter-conference play between select upper and lower division teams from each. You make the lower level teams ineligible for the CCG (if you have one) and CFP autobid. All the teams are still technically part of the same conference snd same TV deal with the networks.

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thunderlounge

thunderlounge 7815

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Posted
4 hours ago, BurntOrange&White said:

Relegation isn't going to happen, stfu about relegation and relegation models.

Nope, it’s not. I believe they probably have discussed it and may have it as one of a few dozen options, but nowhere near the top of the list. 
 

The only thing it has going for it is that it’s the wildest one, making for the best click bait.

 

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camel at sea

camel at sea 589

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14 hours ago, bullet said:

Prime Time does know how to promote himself.  That was the highest rated after dark game ever.

I still don't know how good a coach he will be, but he is a GREAT salesman.

He hired a really good coaching staff and did a full overhaul of a horrible roster in one offseason.  A lot of work and really good evals went into that.  His players are pretty bought in and they play well together.  That's really good coaching.  This season might be the best that the PAC has ever been, top to bottom, so if he gets them to 7-5 / 8-4, he will be a national coach of the year candidate. 

Is it sustainable? We'll see.  He'll have to start landing elite LOS talent if he wants to compete for national titles someday.  He can make the CFP and win the new Big 12 without that, though.  His players are producing and people want to watch on TV, so all of that will help him recruit. 

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Doc Daneeka

Doc Daneeka 6769

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18 minutes ago, camel at sea said:

He hired a really good coaching staff and did a full overhaul of a horrible roster in one offseason.  A lot of work and really good evals went into that.  His players are pretty bought in and they play well together.  That's really good coaching.  This season might be the best that the PAC has ever been, top to bottom, so if he gets them to 7-5 / 8-4, he will be a national coach of the year candidate. 

Is it sustainable? We'll see.  He'll have to start landing elite LOS talent if he wants to compete for national titles someday.  He can make the CFP and win the new Big 12 without that, though.  His players are producing and people want to watch on TV, so all of that will help him recruit. 

If he gets them to 8-4 they should probably just rename the coach of the year award for him. Seems pretty unlikely. That said, he’s already achieved more than could have been reasonably expected for that program so far. 

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SimkinsMan

SimkinsMan 4386

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Posted

The Grant of Rights is iron clad?

Quote

The settlement left the athletics directors at some of the continuing Big 12 schools “kind of dumbfounded,” Kansas State athletics director Gene Taylor said. “We fought back as hard as we could,” but he said the conference’s lawyers advised them, Yormark and the schools’ presidents and chancellors that the bylaws were “not as rock-solid as everybody thought and we could be tied up on lawsuits forever.”

 

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bullet 1596

Posted
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7 hours ago, BurntOrange&White said:

image.png.3f0e2efdc890b66d27e5e06f8d76e738.png

The way that is written makes it sound like we got out for free.  We don't get money the year we aren't there and we take the same cut everyone else does to bring in the new members.

Its interesting that neither conference is paying us in the last year of the GOR.  But ESPN is giving us some money directly and keeping the Big 12 whole.

 

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TKthunder2

TKthunder2 4985

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6 hours ago, bullet said:

The way that is written makes it sound like we got out for free.  We don't get money the year we aren't there and we take the same cut everyone else does to bring in the new members.

Its interesting that neither conference is paying us in the last year of the GOR.  But ESPN is giving us some money directly and keeping the Big 12 whole.

 

Read that part again. We’re getting paid.

Quote

Oklahoma and Texas will be getting no money from the SEC’s primary revenue sharing pool in 2024-25, according to the schools' entry agreements. However, they stand to collect millions through football- and men’s-basketball-specific distributions that already existed under the SEC’s bylaws. They could receive additional money through other specially negotiated terms. And they will get what their agreements describe as “transition” payments being funded by ESPN.

That’s the vast majority of the money. The primary revenue pool is “other” money and ESPN is offsetting that likely as a payout for the LHN.

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bullet 1596

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On 9/22/2023 at 10:34 PM, TKthunder2 said:

Read that part again. We’re getting paid.

That’s the vast majority of the money. The primary revenue pool is “other” money and ESPN is offsetting that likely as a payout for the LHN.

No.  The majority of the money IS from the media contract, not basketball/bow/CFP.  I wasn't precise.  We aren't getting paid for the media contracts in 2024-5.  But it hasn't been disclosed how much ESPN is paying us in "transition fees."

If ESPN doesn't want the ACC to break, they could have set it up that way so technically Texas and OU did not get to sell their media rights in the last year of the GOR, but ESPN is compensating us.

On the other hand, it has to look like a great deal to FSU if they can get it and get into the SEC.

 

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Laxtonto

Laxtonto 12078

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16 minutes ago, Al_4_ISU said:

I highly doubt it, but I'd be cool with it.

The current Locked On Big 12 guy is a dumbass.

This is really interesting because I didn't know about the CFP need for 100% agreement for all changes and one of the P12 people is on the board...

It also tracks with the issue I had with where the $$ worked from the CFP. No one could tell me what happens if a confernece goes away or how they would redo a split.  Now this also falls into the question of how the NCAA can dissolve the the Pac12 due to lack of membership.

 

I always said big picture-wise that it was best for all other conferences if the Pac12 died vs retaining zombie status and now this adds that more credence to that idea.

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gatormarc

gatormarc 911

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Posted
2 minutes ago, Laxtonto said:

Now this also falls into the question of how the NCAA can dissolve the the Pac12 due to lack of membership.

I know for other sports, the NCAA can set a minimum number of members in order to get an conference autobid to the postseason tournament but it shouldn't be able to dissolve a conference.

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Laxtonto

Laxtonto 12078

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Posted
14 minutes ago, gatormarc said:

I know for other sports, the NCAA can set a minimum number of members in order to get an conference autobid to the postseason tournament but it shouldn't be able to dissolve a conference.

But they have a multiple-year window to fix membership. So if I'm the Pac12 I do everything I can to make sure they get a cut as long as I could. This falls right back into the potential issue of say the PAc12 reorgs membership with the MWC and then essentially keeps the CFP payout for OSU and WSU and then gives the old MWC teams a bump to be involved. So now you are stuck with a super weak autobid conference that would have to be ceded appropriately due to their autobid status thus making a major flaw in the strength of schedule in the playoff matrix..

So if  they stick around they want to be treated as a P5 on paper and payout and yet would most likely be talent equivalent to a G5 at large

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thunderlounge

thunderlounge 7815

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, LTtxfan said:

Oregon State, Washington State Will Expand to the Big 12 Or ESPN Loses $320 Million

Sept 26th


Not quite. The CFP money the PAC2 would get by holding out would get distributed to the “P4”. ESPN is paying the same either way. 
 

This is definitely a wild scenario, but far from impossible. It wouldn’t last long, IIRC they have 2 years to get back to a minimum of 8 schools before the NCAA will not recognize them as a conference. Trickledown effect from there, and the CFP would then be able to follow. 
 

But initially with a PAC representative being on the CFP board, and changes needing unanimous approval (allegedly), it could be a bumpy ride.

Not sure there is an advantage to the b12 to add them, unless it could be on the super cheap.

 

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Al_4_ISU

Al_4_ISU 12452

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, thunderlounge said:


Not quite. The CFP money the PAC2 would get by holding out would get distributed to the “P4”. ESPN is paying the same either way. 
 

This is definitely a wild scenario, but far from impossible. It wouldn’t last long, IIRC they have 2 years to get back to a minimum of 8 schools before the NCAA will not recognize them as a conference. Trickledown effect from there, and the CFP would then be able to follow. 
 

But initially with a PAC representative being on the CFP board, and changes needing unanimous approval (allegedly), it could be a bumpy ride.

Not sure there is an advantage to the b12 to add them, unless it could be on the super cheap.

 

It's pretty well out there that the reason the Big 12 didn't pursue any more Pac 12 schools was because ESPN and Fox weren't going to pay for them.  I don't know why the TV partners would come back and bless the addition of Wazzu and Oregon State now.

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