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Realignment talk not going away


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On 6/16/2024 at 3:44 PM, The Hot Dog Buffet said:

The Big 10 is full of truly terrible football programs. It shouldn't be very hard for USC to win 9 or 10 games and get into the playoff.

They had trouble winning 9 or 10 in the even more shitty P12. 

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1 hour ago, The Hot Dog Buffet said:

From a scheduling standpoint, the Big 10 is going to be easier more often than it's not. Not easier to win the conference, but easier to win 10 games.

Yep. A lot of mediocre talent and teams that run easy to defend schemes from the 1980s

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It seems pretty inevitable that something like this is happening:

FSU, Clemson, UNC, Miami to the SEC

ND and UVA to the Big 10

VA Tech, Louisville, Pitt, NCSU to the Big 12.

The wealthier 2 will have 20 schools and probably stop there.  If there were schools in the Big 12 that they believed made them money, they'd already be in those leagues.  The Big 12 could add more of the ACC leftovers depending on what TV wants (obviously Cuse and Duke would be great for hoops).  The playoffs will be something where you see 4 SEC schools, 4 Big 10 schools, 2-3 Big 12 schools and 1-2 G5.  The Big 10 and SEC will stay way ahead financially, secure more playoff spots, but there will be a market for that third conference and it will get a (lesser) seat at the table. 

I don't know if those 60+ schools create a new division or not.  I'm not really sure it's necessary, or that there's all that much demand for that but maybe there is.  But I think this next step is a further solidification of what kind of exists or seems to be in motion now.

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55 minutes ago, Al_4_ISU said:

It seems pretty inevitable that something like this is happening:

FSU, Clemson, UNC, Miami to the SEC

ND and UVA to the Big 10

VA Tech, Louisville, Pitt, NCSU to the Big 12.

The wealthier 2 will have 20 schools and probably stop there.  If there were schools in the Big 12 that they believed made them money, they'd already be in those leagues.  The Big 12 could add more of the ACC leftovers depending on what TV wants (obviously Cuse and Duke would be great for hoops).  The playoffs will be something where you see 4 SEC schools, 4 Big 10 schools, 2-3 Big 12 schools and 1-2 G5.  The Big 10 and SEC will stay way ahead financially, secure more playoff spots, but there will be a market for that third conference and it will get a (lesser) seat at the table. 

I don't know if those 60+ schools create a new division or not.  I'm not really sure it's necessary, or that there's all that much demand for that but maybe there is.  But I think this next step is a further solidification of what kind of exists or seems to be in motion now.

I don't think the SEC will take both FSU and Miami. Also think ND will stay independent. But who knows. The four you pick I like for the Big XII/ would be a great way to round out the eastern end of the league. Unless by some miracle Miami is available, then swap them in for one of the others. 

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5 minutes ago, Saint Austin said:

I think I'd rather have Virginia than Miami. UVA expands the SEC's footprint, and Miami appears to be regressing back into a commuter school with its best football days behind it.

Miami has also increased their number of international students quite a bit for the past decade. Fewer students/ young alumni they are really football-centric in culture. 

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32 minutes ago, Saint Austin said:

I think I'd rather have Virginia than Miami. UVA expands the SEC's footprint, and Miami appears to be regressing back into a commuter school with its best football days behind it.

The exact mix of who goes where out of those top 6 is a little tough to predict.  I think the Big 10 and SEC taking ACC teams will force ND into the Big 10 if only to actually keep their rivalries.  Or maybe they do some hybrid deal with the Big 10 kind of like what they did the ACC.

I do think that the revenue sharing is going to change a lot in the future, and that may make Notre Dame more willing to participate.  They aren't going to sign up for some egalitarian relationship with Purdue and Indiana.  They may sign up for something where they essentially make what they earn and it's a scheduling arrangement.

Maybe the Big 10 would prefer Miami from a market stand point and to have a Florida presence, but UVA fits in with Rutgers, MD, and Penn State.  Regardless, it seems like the top 4-5 brands in the ACC will end up in the SEC and Big 10, and the next tier will have to decide if they're better off trying to fill in with G5s or just hook up with the Big 12, and it seems like the choice there is pretty clear.

Edited by Al_4_ISU
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1 hour ago, LTbear said:

I don't think the SEC will take both FSU and Miami. Also think ND will stay independent. But who knows. The four you pick I like for the Big XII/ would be a great way to round out the eastern end of the league. Unless by some miracle Miami is available, then swap them in for one of the others. 

I'd legit prefer all of those 4 over Miami, personally.  They all seem like Big 12 schools.  Miami doesn't.

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It seems to me that Big 10 has value because of population and to some extent academics, SEC has value because of product and eyeballs. UNC and UVA just feel like Big 10 fits way more than SEC. Mediocre football at best. After FSU and Clemson I just don’t see who adds value to the SEC. Maybe Miami because of the helmet? They just haven’t been good for a long long time. Who knows anymore. I just want to get to the finals of this carousel.

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18 minutes ago, Al_4_ISU said:

I'd legit prefer all of those 4 over Miami, personally.  They all seem like Big 12 schools.  Miami doesn't.

Fair enough. I think Miami may be a better add than Pitt, personally, even though I'd love the Backyard Brawl to be an annual Big XII event. I obviously won't complain with either though. 

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2 hours ago, Al_4_ISU said:

It seems pretty inevitable that something like this is happening:

FSU, Clemson, UNC, Miami to the SEC

ND and UVA to the Big 10

VA Tech, Louisville, Pitt, NCSU to the Big 12.

The wealthier 2 will have 20 schools and probably stop there.  If there were schools in the Big 12 that they believed made them money, they'd already be in those leagues.  The Big 12 could add more of the ACC leftovers depending on what TV wants (obviously Cuse and Duke would be great for hoops).  The playoffs will be something where you see 4 SEC schools, 4 Big 10 schools, 2-3 Big 12 schools and 1-2 G5.  The Big 10 and SEC will stay way ahead financially, secure more playoff spots, but there will be a market for that third conference and it will get a (lesser) seat at the table. 

I don't know if those 60+ schools create a new division or not.  I'm not really sure it's necessary, or that there's all that much demand for that but maybe there is.  But I think this next step is a further solidification of what kind of exists or seems to be in motion now.

If the SEC were to take FSU and Clemson, I think it would be for defensive purposes. They aren't really additive in terms of territory and they aren't going to move the needle all that much on the TV contract. I think FSU is vastly overvaluing itself right now. I could see a world where the SEC and B1G tells them to take a hike and they end up in the B12 if the TV partners don't want to play ball. But in reality, I know that they likely aren't trying this hard to break this contract unless they have some sort of wink and nod agreement with one of the major conferences. 

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2 minutes ago, Vertigo said:

If the SEC were to take FSU and Clemson, I think it would be for defensive purposes. They aren't really additive in terms of territory and they aren't going to move the needle all that much on the TV contract. I think FSU is vastly overvaluing itself right now. I could see a world where the SEC and B1G tells them to take a hike and they end up in the B12 if the TV partners don't want to play ball. But in reality, I know that they likely aren't trying this hard to break this contract unless they have some sort of wink and nod agreement with one of the major conferences. 

I don't think "territory" matters anymore, it's solely about TV ratings since live sports is one of the only areas left where viewers can't avoid commercials (other than taking a piss same as it always was). It's why I think FSU and Clemson are about the only ACC teams that bring value to the SEC. What does territory in North Carolina and Virgina matter? The TV ratings just aren't that high.

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21 minutes ago, 'stache said:

I don't think "territory" matters anymore, it's solely about TV ratings since live sports is one of the only areas left where viewers can't avoid commercials (other than taking a piss same as it always was). It's why I think FSU and Clemson are about the only ACC teams that bring value to the SEC. What does territory in North Carolina and Virgina matter? The TV ratings just aren't that high.

Yep. FSU/ Clemson vs Bama/ Georgia/ Florida etc. could be a ratings wet dream for the networks. 

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The fact that CAL & Stanford get ZERO mentions on this page is hilarious. Forgetting them isn't on us. It's on CalFord. They weren't even a serious contender for the BIG12 and for some reason the ACC thought they'd turn the attic into a room for them. And they are letting SMU sleep in the yard. It just illustrates at how, not only did CalFordSmu not add value, but they damaged the brand.

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56 minutes ago, CustersDoctor said:

The fact that CAL & Stanford get ZERO mentions on this page is hilarious. Forgetting them isn't on us. It's on CalFord. They weren't even a serious contender for the BIG12 and for some reason the ACC thought they'd turn the attic into a room for them. And they are letting SMU sleep in the yard. It just illustrates at how, not only did CalFordSmu not add value, but they damaged the brand.

Hilarious, or just expected? I have a doctorate from Berkeley and did a fellowship at Stanford (during their recent peak no less), and neither has a football-minded culture. Would not be surprised to see them take some academic-minded leftovers from the ACC fallout and try to stitch something new together (along with OSU and WSU). 

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5 hours ago, Vertigo said:

If the SEC were to take FSU and Clemson, I think it would be for defensive purposes. They aren't really additive in terms of territory and they aren't going to move the needle all that much on the TV contract. I think FSU is vastly overvaluing itself right now. I could see a world where the SEC and B1G tells them to take a hike and they end up in the B12 if the TV partners don't want to play ball. But in reality, I know that they likely aren't trying this hard to break this contract unless they have some sort of wink and nod agreement with one of the major conferences. 

I think FSU and Clemson still bring in viewers, and like you said, they wouldn't be going this hard to break things up unless they knew they had a soft landing somewhere.

IMO, if FSU and Clemson aren't moving the needle TV wise, then I don't know that any schools outside of the SEC and Big 10 (excluding ND of course) move the needle for TV.

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5 hours ago, 'stache said:

It seems to me that Big 10 has value because of population and to some extent academics, SEC has value because of product and eyeballs. UNC and UVA just feel like Big 10 fits way more than SEC. Mediocre football at best. After FSU and Clemson I just don’t see who adds value to the SEC. Maybe Miami because of the helmet? They just haven’t been good for a long long time. Who knows anymore. I just want to get to the finals of this carousel.

The historic cache of Michigan and Ohio State is a lot of it too.

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11 hours ago, 'stache said:

I don't think "territory" matters anymore, it's solely about TV ratings since live sports is one of the only areas left where viewers can't avoid commercials (other than taking a piss same as it always was). It's why I think FSU and Clemson are about the only ACC teams that bring value to the SEC. What does territory in North Carolina and Virgina matter? The TV ratings just aren't that high.

You could be right on UVA (I’ve seen Virginia Tech fans make good arguments against them) but you are 100% wrong on UNC, they likely are the MOST valuable property still out there not named Notre Dame.

If a school left the SEC and they were looking for a single replacement, UNC would be the first call, hands down.

11 hours ago, 6th Street said:

UVA and UNC are highly coveted by the SEC. Flagship universities in decent sized states and contiguous to the SEC geo footprint. 

I agree. UVA isn’t as clear but those two schools do check every box except football.

Large public flagship universities in geography contiguous Southern states with large populations and new media markets that excel in basketball, baseball, non rev sports, and (even though that doesn’t matter that much) elite academics.

Adding just FSU/Clemson means 10 out of 18 teams have CFP/BCS titles and the league might be too competitive. But if you bring them in along with UNC/UVA you improve every aspect of the league while keeping the competition similar to what it currently is.

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12 hours ago, TKthunder2 said:

Adding just FSU/Clemson means 10 out of 18 teams have CFP/BCS titles and the league might be too competitive. But if you bring them in along with UNC/UVA you improve every aspect of the league while keeping the competition similar to what it currently is.

Yeah, do this to get to 20. 

You know these two are at the top of the B1G's wish list.

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It’s fun to play these games of adding teams, but reality does have to come into play when it’s time to make schedules. The SEC is at 16 teams, and has an eight game schedule that will suffice for two seasons. After that, it needs to go to nine games or teams (like Arkansas) that expect to play an opponent every year will have to adjust their expectations. 
 
The B1G has 18 teams, and plays a nine game league schedule. They have 12 protected rivalry games (not every B1G has a protected rivalry, and Iowa has as many as three) and commit to each school playing every other school at least twice every five years. 
 
So, if the B1G takes two more teams, what then? (I understand very well that if ND calls they will figure out a way). If the SEC takes two more, what then?

I know FSU and Clemson are acting as if this were all worked out, but, I wonder if it isn’t. 

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39 minutes ago, statsman said:

I know FSU and Clemson are acting as if this were all worked out, but, I wonder if it isn’t. 

I’ve wondered that myself.

I came to the conclusion that if it were worked out that far ahead, so would scheduling (on paper, votes are another matter obviously), and other details. Or I should say, a plan, at least.


To think nothing was learned from this round, good and bad, would be quite silly. And honestly, with the way things went down way too early, it wouldn’t surprise me if they had a plan that went sideways due to the timing of it all.

Two more summers and they would have had time to better align and work things. Instead they were shoved into the spotlight 2 years early.

 

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On 6/24/2024 at 11:42 AM, LTbear said:

Yep. FSU/ Clemson vs Bama/ Georgia/ Florida etc. could be a ratings wet dream for the networks. 

Agreed.  Below are the TV ratings per the Sic-em analysis from 2013-21 for ACC and Big 12 schools.  Only 4 schools are ahead of Stanford who wasn't valuable enough to get in the Big 10 or to get a full share in the ACC, but FSU and Clemson rate pretty high:

image.thumb.png.a92e0e9e28bab34ff00d283248a69fcf.png

Edited by bullet
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On 6/26/2024 at 5:06 PM, bullet said:

Agreed.  Below are the TV ratings per the Sic-em analysis from 2013-21 for ACC and Big 12 schools.  Only 4 schools are ahead of Stanford who wasn't valuable enough to get in the Big 10 or to get a full share in the ACC, but FSU and Clemson rate pretty high:

image.thumb.png.a92e0e9e28bab34ff00d283248a69fcf.png

UNC’s numbers don’t bother me if you’re bringing them into the SEC with FSU/Clemson but this is exactly why I’m less confident in Virginia.

UVA checks a lot of boxes, but football/viewership is not one of them. If added, they likely join Vanderbilt football as a near permanent fixture on the SECN each Saturday.

Virginia Tech’s numbers, despite not having the best decade, are respectable and their stadium is the 4th largest in campus stadium not in the SEC/B1G (a good indicator of fan support).

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5 hours ago, TKthunder2 said:

UNC’s numbers don’t bother me if you’re bringing them into the SEC with FSU/Clemson but this is exactly why I’m less confident in Virginia.

UVA checks a lot of boxes, but football/viewership is not one of them. If added, they likely join Vanderbilt football as a near permanent fixture on the SECN each Saturday.

Virginia Tech’s numbers, despite not having the best decade, are respectable and their stadium is the 4th largest in campus stadium not in the SEC/B1G (a good indicator of fan support).

UVA only makes sense if you're bringing them in with UNC in order to keep "the oldest rivalry in the south" together and in order to get a piece of Virginia.  My guess is that if UNC is able to move without NC State, etc., they are going to have an easier time moving if they are going with their historic rival.

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