Realignment talk not going away

[Hurtlocker 2208]

I mean I seriously thought this dude died a while back.

[mdmost 42316]

 

[Al_4_ISU 12229]

So that means they're in until 2036?

[gatormarc 897]

2 minutes ago, Al_4_ISU said:

So that means they're in until 2036?

No.

This just means they don't see the finish line yet.

It's just a 1 year notice. The next deadline would be August 15, 2025 for the 2026 season.

[Josef Pwag 1656]

1 hour ago, mdmost said:

 

FSU and Clemson are arguing the contract is invalid, so why would they be expected to care about a date stipulated in the contract? 

[gatormarc 897]

4 minutes ago, Josef Pwag said:

FSU and Clemson are arguing the contract is invalid, so why would they be expected to care about a date stipulated in the contract? 

It's a separate thing, as far as I understand. The August 15th requirement is in the membership bylaws, not the GoR or the TV Contract.

What I've read this morning on FSU boards is that FSU will ask that the date of withdrawal be backdated to when this challenge started if they are successful in the other portions.

[Hurtlocker 2208]

22 minutes ago, gatormarc said:

It's a separate thing, as far as I understand. The August 15th requirement is in the membership bylaws, not the GoR or the TV Contract.

What I've read this morning on FSU boards is that FSU will ask that the date of withdrawal be backdated to when this challenge started if they are successful in the other portions.

Yeah this gets missed a lot.    There are the agreements that bind you to the conference and there are the agreements that bind you to the media rights deal.   They overlap, but they are not the same.    

The rumor mill piece that has me intrigued is this extension in 2027.    IF this actually wasn't signed yet, then it does provide a hole in the grant of rights, as the conference partners would need to agree to it as they agree to the extension, like they would any term sheet.    That would give FSU/Clemson an actual window should ESPN's extension numbers not improve to their liking.   (Though where they would go to get what they want is a topic for at least another 300 pages)

If the ACC signed a grant of rights through 2036, but a media rights deal through 2027, then I can see why the courts would allow this to continue because that would be a very non-standard use of a GoR, which are generally always tied directly to a payment sheet, that's their entire intent.

ACC teams getting out by August 15th would be too soon.    When the Texas/OU left, they announced leaving at the end of the media deal, they gave three years notice.    When the Pac teams left, UCLA/USC announced they were leaving at the end of the current media deal, the others left because they had no deal so they were leaving when the current one ended.  (The Pac had no conference agreement binding them together which was more than a little odd, all things considered).   The ACC schools would need to do the same.    Otherwise they'd leave and their rights would still belong to the ACC until whatever date that contract states and no one would take them until its final.

[Hurtlocker 2208]

Maybe its not 2027...

 

[DanTheHorn 4852]

Can they give a notice by August 15th that says that they are leaving as soon as all legal issues are resolved be it by the courts or contractual? Since I am not a lawyer I am assuming that that is just not done due to the exposure that may cause the institution but it would make for additional drama.

[Hurtlocker 2208]

1 minute ago, DanTheHorn said:

Can they give a notice by August 15th that says that they are leaving as soon as all legal issues are resolved be it by the courts or contractual? Since I am not a lawyer I am assuming that that is just not done due to the exposure that may cause the institution but it would make for additional drama.

Ha, well they could, but the moment they announce the ACC can withhold payments to cover any buyouts/fees/bartabs.  So they want to be more sneaky than they're being, usually.   Or richer.   They're kind of being neither.

[Texas Wahoo 3376]

1 hour ago, DanTheHorn said:

Can they give a notice by August 15th that says that they are leaving as soon as all legal issues are resolved be it by the courts or contractual? Since I am not a lawyer I am assuming that that is just not done due to the exposure that may cause the institution but it would make for additional drama.

That's basically what SDSU tried to do and the Mountain West treated it like a Notice of Intent to leave, so SDSU had to backtrack.

[Hurtlocker 2208]

 

[thunderlounge 7619]

 

[TKthunder2 4959]

https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/5650358/2024/07/22/mountain-west-pac-12-schedules-merger/

Quote

Why the Mountain West and Pac-12 leftovers’ shared realignment future is no longer a given

Chris Vannini

LAS VEGAS — Nine months ago, as the Pac-12 neared collapse with the impending departure of 10 of its schools for other conferences, a union between the conference’s remaining two members and the Mountain West seemed almost inevitable. Oregon State and Washington State needed a home, and the 12-team Mountain West was the only FBS conference remaining that could claim a truly West Coast footprint.

But when the leagues appeared in Sin City separately for their respective media events earlier this month, there remained little to no momentum for a permanent resolution between them. That’s because both sides still want different things.

The Pac-2 held an open-bar cocktail event in a Bellagio conference room, where former Washington State quarterbacks Ryan Leaf and Jack Thompson criticized those who left their alma mater behind and mascot Butch T. Cougar wore a red jacket and let his chest fur breathe. With only a two-year window to operate as a two-team conference per NCAA rules, Oregon State and Washington State are hoping for further realignment chaos, hoping a Power 4 invitation or new possibility emerges.

The Mountain West held its media days within the world’s largest sportsbook at Circa, pushing excitement about a deep league and opportunity in a new 12-team College Football Playoff. The conference wants stability, not chaos, and some league members have wondered privately why they should give another lifeline to the Pac-2 without a long-term agreement, even as everyone stays cordial publicly.

Last December, the parties agreed to a one-year football scheduling agreement, helping the Beavers and Cougars secure six additional Mountain West opponents for their 2024 football schedules in exchange for more than $14 million. The contract spoke of working toward a basketball agreement that never transpired. Oregon State and Washington State’s programs in that sport and most others will operate as affiliate members under a two-year contract with the West Coast Conference instead. (Oregon State baseball opted for independence.) Both sides say an agreement on a 2025 football schedule needs to happen before the 2024 season kicks off. So will it?

“I’m pretty confident,” Mountain West commissioner Gloria Nevarez said. “You never know with how contracting goes. It was built in anticipation as a two-year schedule. Because that’s how you mitigate competitive inequities, and we figure if we’re going to do it, it’s easier to do two. It’s not for any reason except for we had to get through June meetings, then July gets kind of quiet. (Pac-12 commissioner Teresa Gould) and I have been talking, and it’s just been a phone tag thing.”

That football agreement also laid out in writing a “good faith” effort for the Pac-12 to absorb all Mountain West schools under the Pac-12 banner at no cost, “as promptly as reasonably practicable,” in time for the 2025-26 or 2026-27 seasons. That hasn’t happened.

Oregon State has six games on its 2025 football schedule and Washington State has five, not including a matchup with each other. Mountain West schools could theoretically fill out those schedules individually, or they could hold firm together and secure another conference-wide agreement.

“We’ll have to see if everything falls into place or we explore a different path for that second year,” new Washington State athletic director Anne McCoy said, “or if everything goes forward with the Mountain West.”

Big picture, Oregon State and Washington State want to buy as much time as possible and see what happens elsewhere — perhaps, say, if Florida State and Clemsontry to officially leave the ACC, that league might explore getting back to 17 members. Oregon State athletic director Scott Barnes told The Athletic earlier this year that joining a Power 4 conference is the top priority, followed by some merger with the Mountain West.

“It’s important to get the time to see where the landscape is going,” said Oregon State executive deputy athletic director Brent Blaylock, who represented OSU at the Vegas event. “We’ve seen the volatility of how things change. We know some of the other friction points going on in other places. So it’s important for us to just stay abreast of what’s going on.”

The Mountain West, meanwhile, feels more emboldened than it did a year ago and doesn’t appreciate the image of being a backup option. The introduction of a 12-team CFP means the Mountain West champion has a path to the Playoff for the foreseeable future, while the Pac-2 can only receive an at-large berth, and the CFP deal with ESPN runs through 2032. The Mountain West also got six teams into this year’s NCAA men’s basketball tournament. It won’t beg for two more members.

“When I first started (as commissioner), everyone was growing to 14, 16, and I thought maybe that’s where we need to be,” Nevarez said. “I’m not seeing a need now. Certainly if there’s an opportunity to make us better, I would absolutely chase that down. But I’m feeling pretty good about where we are.”

For this upcoming football season, the Mountain West is pushing its strength of schedule: League members will play 35 games against Power 5 opponents (including Oregon State and Washington State), with 15 of those games at home, by far the most of any Group of 5 conference.

What does hang over the Mountain West is its television deal, which recently added TNT Sports as a third partner and runs through 2025-26. That coincidentally times up with the Pac-2’s window. It’d be an easy moment to make an addition. But what about departures? The Mountain West office has maintained that its exit fee ($18 million, or $36 million for schools leaving within a year) applies regardless of the TV situation, something that was brought up last summer when San Diego State danced with the idea of leaving the league. Any attempt by Oregon State and Washington State to pull Group of 5 teams from multiple conferences would be very expensive, even with a $255 million war chest leftover from the Pac-12.

The football agreement signed last year lays out that adding one Mountain West school would cost the Pac-2 $10 million. Adding six schools would cost $67.5 million; 11 schools would cost $137.5 million, not including their exit fees for leaving the MW. But adding all 12 would cost nothing. The league held firm in putting that deal together, protecting everyone.

The one wild-card scenario is dissolving the Mountain West, which would require nine of 12 schools voting in favor and therefore removing any exit fees. That possibility has not garnered enough votes to be an option, especially given the open desire of the Pac-2 schools to land elsewhere.

Oregon State and Washington State will chart their future amid plenty of internal change. Football coach Jonathan Smith and highly-touted quarterback Aidan Chiles left Oregon State for Michigan State, and star running back Damien Martinez went to Miami (Fla.). Washington State athletic director Pat Chun left for Washington, and talented quarterback Cam Ward went to Miami. Influential president Kirk Schulz will retire next June. That turnover has made a difficult situation even tougher.

No one associated with the Pac-2 in that Bellagio conference room could say what the future holds, but after a year of upheaval and ahead of a historic and unique fall, an open bar felt appropriate.

“If anybody has earned the right to drink,” Gould said, “it’s the Pac-12.”

 

 

[statsman 5354]

Why do FSU and Clemson want out of the ACC? To get more money, since modern college football programs require armies of analysts, scouts and staffers. Every year they are in the ACC, they fall further behind the programs they consider their peers. 
 
Would they join the B1G or SEC, upon leaving? Doesn’t look like it. 
 
Would they join the B12? It’s hard to see how they solve their media revenue problem (they want to be financial peers with SEC or B1G schools) and it’s hard to see why the B12 would want them, considering they would flee for the SEC or B1G whenever they had a chance. 
 
So, what is their plan? Could it be this is all about getting unequal revenue sharing in the ACC?

[thunderlounge 7619]

Unequal revenue is probably their best option out of all that.

[Josef Pwag 1656]

1 hour ago, statsman said:

 So, what is their plan? Could it be this is all about getting unequal revenue sharing in the ACC?

Things have to get VERY unequal in the ACC to even come close to bridging the gap between FSU/Clemson and the SEC & B1G.

It diesn't seem like FSU can break the GOR, and as of this moment they don't have a clear path to the SEC or B1G, so why should anyone else in the ACC grab their ankles for FSU & Clemson? 

[Auto Driller 2502]

Make a portion of the media revenue available as a bonus to the conference winner. If FSU and Clemson are so far ahead of their conference mates as they believe, it shouldn’t be an issue for them to get SEC money.

[Vertigo 20203]

I think it's cute how Oregon St and Washington St still think they are going to be a P4 school at the end of the day. Even if Florida State, Clemson, and North Carolina leave, in what world does it make sense to add two schools that amount to a nothing burger for revenue, TV inventory, or brand, or location. And given the options, the B12 would take probably 4 or 5 ACC schools before they took those two. They are nothing but dilutive to any P4 conference unless Fox or ESPN really wants that B12 after dark TV slot so much they are willing to pay for it.  

[Hurtlocker 2208]

5 hours ago, Vertigo said:

I think it's cute how Oregon St and Washington St still think they are going to be a P4 school at the end of the day. Even if Florida State, Clemson, and North Carolina leave, in what world does it make sense to add two schools that amount to a nothing burger for revenue, TV inventory, or brand, or location. And given the options, the B12 would take probably 4 or 5 ACC schools before they took those two. They are nothing but dilutive to any P4 conference unless Fox or ESPN really wants that B12 after dark TV slot so much they are willing to pay for it.  

Yeah they could have already gone that route.     They need eastern eyeballs.

[TKthunder2 4959]

[billfromlaketravis 11286]

As soon as the PAC-12 leftover money gets resolved, Oregon State and Washington State join the Mountain West right? 
 

If they’re holding out hope for a conference champion auto bid, they’re very misguided. Win the MWC and they’re in. I mean hell, the Big 12 and ACC are going to struggle to get 2 teams in every year.. 

[notre dame joe 171]

17 hours ago, Hurtlocker said:

If the ACC signed a grant of rights through 2036, but a media rights deal through 2027, then I can see why the courts would allow this to continue because that would be a very non-standard use of a GoR, which are generally always tied directly to a payment sheet, that's their entire intent.

Are you saying the court would invalidate the GoR if the conference has not sold those rights?  What if they were just sold for a disapointing sum?

[Hurtlocker 2208]

4 hours ago, notre dame joe said:

Are you saying the court would invalidate the GoR if the conference has not sold those rights?  What if they were just sold for a disapointing sum?

Disappointing sum, no, lots of people have been unhappy with their deal after signing them and still have to live out their contract.   However, they could say that it only was bound until the length of the payment structure.   This is only based off one report that there was no extension signed, which is super weird to be honest.   Usually an extension means you've sold your rights for a term then at some point in that term, agreed to lengthen the term.    However, the length was always the length.    What it could also be and interpreted wrong is a "look in".    These happen often in long deals and allow both parties to change the value if performance is better (they rarely use them to come down) than expected.    They could have pre-negotiated triggers, something like "the ACC network is in 30m homes by 2025 then X happens".   All these do though is change the payout, they don't change the length.    

Soooo....

(Most likely) If what they really have is a look in or two between now and 2036, then a GoR tied to the full length would make sense and would be pretty solid.

(Less Likely) If what they did is actually make an agreement to 2027 with a premade extension to 2036 all parties would sign later, with a GoR signed through 2036, then someone could clearly argue that the GoR should only go until 2027 and I don't think they'd be wrong.   

[Hurtlocker 2208]

8 hours ago, billfromlaketravis said:

As soon as the PAC-12 leftover money gets resolved, Oregon State and Washington State join the Mountain West right? 
 

If they’re holding out hope for a conference champion auto bid, they’re very misguided. Win the MWC and they’re in. I mean hell, the Big 12 and ACC are going to struggle to get 2 teams in every year.. 

CBS: MWC interest may be waning

[bullet 1596]

On 7/22/2024 at 10:29 AM, Hurtlocker said:

Maybe its not 2027...

 

My understanding is they can totally opt out of the deal in 2027 if they do so by February 2025.  The deadline was February 2021 until the commissioner's office extended the option without a vote by membership.

[TKthunder2 4959]

Oregon State baseball will be an independent in 2025.

Washington State baseball is joining the MWC.

[gatormarc 897]

The WV Twitter guys always have the best stuff... 

[thunderlounge 7619]

That would be dumb of them. 

[Gidnik 3242]

looks like the acc is absolutely cooked.  

https://www.myfloridalegal.com/sites/default/files/2024-08/acc-public-records.pdf

Quote

Extension of Term. The parties hereby agree that the conclusion of the Term of the Agreement is hereby extended to the earlier of (i) June 30, 2027, or (ii) the date on which the Agreement is properly terminated pursuant to Section 22 of the Agreement

 

[statsman 5354]

But,…do they (FSU and Clemson) have somewhere to join? Big XII?

Edited August 2 by statsman

[thunderlounge 7619]

1 minute ago, statsman said:

But,…do they (FSU and Clemson) have somewhere to join?

Nobody will offer up anything until they are free and clear of the ACC. 

[TKthunder2 4959]

Yeah the court will have to give them a get out of jail free card before anyone will risk getting involved.

If the ACC gave ESPN an extension without a conference vote then it could be bad news for them.

[pops 6956]

On 7/22/2024 at 9:34 PM, billfromlaketravis said:

As soon as the PAC-12 leftover money gets resolved, Oregon State and Washington State join the Mountain West right? 
 

If they’re holding out hope for a conference champion auto bid, they’re very misguided. Win the MWC and they’re in. I mean hell, the Big 12 and ACC are going to struggle to get 2 teams in every year.. 

I think they keep the pac12 name and raid the mwc.  Won't change money much, but I think that's how they will proceed. I think the mwc tv deal is up in 25 which is soon enough the PAC can stay around as a 2 team conference until being forced to go to at least 6.  

[Hurtlocker 2208]

2 hours ago, TKthunder2 said:

Yeah the court will have to give them a get out of jail free card before anyone will risk getting involved.

If the ACC gave ESPN an extension without a conference vote then it could be bad news for them.

And if the GoR goes to 2036, but the payment structure only goes until 2027, then it would be easy to state the GoR actually goes to 2027.     I cannot believe the ACC would be dumb enough to not tie a grant of rights to an agreed upon revenue source for those rights for the entire term.   

[TheStoicPaisano 9786]

 

[gatormarc 897]

Boy do they love their map commercial. There are 3 separate threads on reddit about it.

[Macklemore 2850]

The map commercial is badass. Have to give the B1G their due. 

[Evil Bill Obrien 2914]

OG B1G map commercial was great, this one is rather amusing because can clearly tell they had to speed it up to get the new schools in so now everyone gets a little less of that 30 seconds of air time…lolz

[bullet 1596]

On 8/1/2024 at 6:18 PM, gatormarc said:

The WV Twitter guys always have the best stuff... 

https://www.mercurynews.com/2024/08/02/pac-12-survival-washington-state-oregon-state-engaged-in-strategic-discussions-with-multiple-conferences/

Not according to Wilner, but the ACC is possible.

“"...Some form of affiliation with the Mountain West is likely,” the source said. “But given other uncertainties, (WSU and OSU) could have other options to consider....”

 

If the Seminoles and Tigers depart, a restructuring could ensue.

“That’s what has changed since last summer,” the source said. When the Pac-12 fractured in August 2023, “those lawsuits didn’t exist. They have caused people to re-think the situation: ‘If this, then that.'”

The conversations are not based on the presumption the ACC will collapse in the next year.  “It’s more about possible changes in 12 to 36 months,” the source said.

“Washington State and Oregon State are strong football brands … They drive viewership. What are the opportunities over the next 36 months for two strong brands?”

The Big 12 is “not interested” in adding the Cougars and Beavers as members, a second industry source said...."

 

 

[gatormarc 897]

 

[TKthunder2 4959]

1 hour ago, bullet said:

https://www.mercurynews.com/2024/08/02/pac-12-survival-washington-state-oregon-state-engaged-in-strategic-discussions-with-multiple-conferences/

Not according to Wilner, but the ACC is possible.

“"...Some form of affiliation with the Mountain West is likely,” the source said. “But given other uncertainties, (WSU and OSU) could have other options to consider....”

 

If the Seminoles and Tigers depart, a restructuring could ensue.

“That’s what has changed since last summer,” the source said. When the Pac-12 fractured in August 2023, “those lawsuits didn’t exist. They have caused people to re-think the situation: ‘If this, then that.'”

The conversations are not based on the presumption the ACC will collapse in the next year.  “It’s more about possible changes in 12 to 36 months,” the source said.

“Washington State and Oregon State are strong football brands … They drive viewership. What are the opportunities over the next 36 months for two strong brands?”

The Big 12 is “not interested” in adding the Cougars and Beavers as members, a second industry source said...."

 

 

LOL wilner is still a hack.

First, the reason they added Cal, Stanford, and SMU was specifically to prevent them from falling below 15 members which would have given ESPN the ability to renegotiate their contract. FSU and Clemson leaving was the main reason this was done. Nothing new has changed.

Secondly, even if UNC/UVA/ND/Miami file lawsuits and the ACC considers proactively expanding again…the ACC would still pick schools like Memphis, UConn, USF, Tulane over OSU and WSU.

Spokane and Corvallis don’t have direct flights like Dallas and San Francisco do, the small boosted value being represented in the historical viewer data would not be worth the hassle. They don’t bring any redeeming qualities to the ACC in basketball, non rev sports, media markets, or academics that would make anyone consider them a reasonable option.

They just need to get over their pride and join/merge with the MWC in 2026, they will not have any better options.

[Hurtlocker 2208]

10 hours ago, TKthunder2 said:

LOL wilner is still a hack.

First, the reason they added Cal, Stanford, and SMU was specifically to prevent them from falling below 15 members which would have given ESPN the ability to renegotiate their contract. FSU and Clemson leaving was the main reason this was done. Nothing new has changed.

Secondly, even if UNC/UVA/ND/Miami file lawsuits and the ACC considers proactively expanding again…the ACC would still pick schools like Memphis, UConn, USF, Tulane over OSU and WSU.

Spokane and Corvallis don’t have direct flights like Dallas and San Francisco do, the small boosted value being represented in the historical viewer data would not be worth the hassle. They don’t bring any redeeming qualities to the ACC in basketball, non rev sports, media markets, or academics that would make anyone consider them a reasonable option.

They just need to get over their pride and join/merge with the MWC in 2026, they will not have any better options.

Yeah even with all the twiter bs going on, I cannot imagine the B12 is looking anywhere but East, where, you know, the people are.    They could have tried to add the Cali schools.   They could have tried to add SMU.   They could have tried to add the Beavers and Cougars.   But, they didn't.   So why now?   I'm not sure any conference fell up any better than the B12 did in this last round, getting the Four Corners.   Even if FSU/Clemson aren't on the table, someone from the ACC like NC State, VTech, Pitt, or Louisville will be, all of whom have a better location, fanbase, viewership, and brand than the Pac 2.   

With @TKthunder2 on this one, the Pac 2 are either the new kings of the mountain or the new backfill of whatever becomes of the ACC.    Though, honestly, if the ACC does crumble, and you lose FSU/Miami/Clemson/ND/UVA/UNC/NCSt/VTech/UL/Pitt (ish) what is left to keep together?

Where FSU/ND end up will dictate that answer.  The rest is really who has an open chair they're willing to offer you.

Edited August 3 by Hurtlocker
spelz

[Al_4_ISU 12229]

OSU and Wazzu fans thinking they might get a Big 12 invite is like Utah and Kansas fans thinking they might get a Big 10/SEC invite.

If it was going to happen, it would have a long time ago.

For the record, I’d enjoy having both, but their profile is much more similar to MWC schools.

Edited August 3 by Al_4_ISU

['stache 21520]

I’d like ORST and WSU in the XII but I don’t know the economics and it looks like it doesn’t work. Trust the process.

Edited August 3 by 'stache

[elfenix 34075]

Cal has its ACC logos on the field

 

[notre dame joe 171]

5 hours ago, Hurtlocker said:

Where FSU/ND end up will dictate that answer.  The rest is really who has an open chair they're willing to offer you.

There appears to be no dialogue between the two. 

5 hours ago, Al_4_ISU said:

OSU and Wazzu fans thinking they might get a Big 12 invite is like Utah and Kansas fans thinking they might get a Big 10/SEC invite.

If it was going to happen, it would have a long time ago.

For the record, I’d enjoy having both, but their profile is much more similar to MWC schools.

Are we back to pretending that the conferences choose instead of being told by the networks?

[thunderlounge 7619]

51 minutes ago, notre dame joe said:

Are we back to pretending that the conferences choose instead of being told by the networks?

I’d say the message from the networks is clear. 

[TKthunder2 4959]

14 minutes ago, thunderlounge said:

I’d say the message from the networks is clear. 

Yep, they want to see how these new 16-18 team conferences and 12 team CFP shake out before investing anymore. If ratings go up, like they hope, we may see another round of realignment in 2030 or so.

[VoteforHank 117]

Somebody consult the oracle Jeff Swaim…..🙄