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Realignment talk not going away


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8 hours ago, notre dame joe said:

There appears to be no dialogue between the two. 

 

Not shocking.  My point was more those two properties are the only two that have a seismic meter move and ND is likely twice that of FSU.  If they stay in the ACC, then it will continue to be.   If they go somewhere else the ACC will become the American.

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https://www.extrapointsmb.com/p/heres-expect-conference-realignment-slow-near-future

Matt Brown thinks nothing is happening in the near future.  Matt writes a newsletter, extra points.  He is really knowledgeable and connected on non-P4 schools.   This article is not restricted to subscribers.

Basically, the ACC lawsuit is holding every up from doing anything.  And, he's hearing the same thing as McMurphy, network money is tight even for an FSU.  G5 is also tied down because of what the Pac 2 might do.  Finally, the House settlement isn't finalized and so conferences and schools don't know all the implications.

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1 hour ago, bullet said:

https://www.extrapointsmb.com/p/heres-expect-conference-realignment-slow-near-future

Matt Brown thinks nothing is happening in the near future.  Matt writes a newsletter, extra points.  He is really knowledgeable and connected on non-P4 schools.   This article is not restricted to subscribers.

Basically, the ACC lawsuit is holding every up from doing anything.  And, he's hearing the same thing as McMurphy, network money is tight even for an FSU.  G5 is also tied down because of what the Pac 2 might do.  Finally, the House settlement isn't finalized and so conferences and schools don't know all the implications.

Matt Brown: "Here’s why I think we’re headed for a few more months of actual realignment calm… "

Let me shorten the story instead of the paragraphs and paragraphs this guy writes.

The season is about to start and realignment announcements usually come in the off-season.

bbdtbc-bow.gif

 

 

Edited by DanTheHorn
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Kyle Whittingham thinks a super league is coming very soon.

https://www.johncanzano.com/p/canzano-utah-footballs-kyle-whittingham

Q: You’ve talked about the future of major college football. That a line will be drawn in the sand and that Utah needs to be on the right side of the line. When is that coming? How many teams will it include? What do you see?

A: Well, yeah, I think there is a major realignment coming, and it’ll be a big one. I think it will create even more of a divide and exclusivity for the teams that are on the right side of that line. 20 months to four years? How about that for a time frame? In my opinion, it’s going to look very much like an NFL minor league.

I see an expansion of the playoff with that to 16 teams. The short version is Super Conferences. I think it’s going to boil down to 40-60 maybe teams in the Super Conference. I wouldn’t be surprised if they don’t play anybody but other Super Conference teams. Make that a division as far as who you play. Like I said, a full-blown playoff. Whether or not the players will be employees, officially, remains to be seen, but I think that’s very likely. I think that’s where it’s heading.

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On 8/12/2024 at 11:08 AM, gatormarc said:

Kyle Whittingham thinks a super league is coming very soon.

https://www.johncanzano.com/p/canzano-utah-footballs-kyle-whittingham

Q: You’ve talked about the future of major college football. That a line will be drawn in the sand and that Utah needs to be on the right side of the line. When is that coming? How many teams will it include? What do you see?

A: Well, yeah, I think there is a major realignment coming, and it’ll be a big one. I think it will create even more of a divide and exclusivity for the teams that are on the right side of that line. 20 months to four years? How about that for a time frame? In my opinion, it’s going to look very much like an NFL minor league.

I see an expansion of the playoff with that to 16 teams. The short version is Super Conferences. I think it’s going to boil down to 40-60 maybe teams in the Super Conference. I wouldn’t be surprised if they don’t play anybody but other Super Conference teams. Make that a division as far as who you play. Like I said, a full-blown playoff. Whether or not the players will be employees, officially, remains to be seen, but I think that’s very likely. I think that’s where it’s heading.

I hate to say it but FCB was the first one I heard talk about the super league when he was on the radio back in 2009 or 2010. He said that in the end it would be 8 conferences with 8 teams each and would follow more of an NFL model for scheduling. He said people told him he was crazy but he said it was coming and it could not be avoided and he would not say more. 

So if it did go the way Chip said here is a scenario:

So who gets there on conference based on money and success in the last 25 years:

1) USC + [UCLA, Oregon, Washington, Arizona, Arizona State, Utah, BYU]
2) Notre Dame + [Virginia Tech (209), Stanford, Colorado, Syracuse, Boston College, North Carolina, Duke]
3) Ohio State + [Penn State (216), West Virginia (206), Pitt, Purdue, Rutgers, Illinois, Indiana]
4) Michigan + [Wisconsin (214), Nebraska(203), Michigan State, Iowa, Iowa State, Minnesota, Northwestern]
5) Texas + [Oklahoma (263), Aggy (167),  Oklahoma State, Arkansas, TCU, TT, Baylor] 
6) Alabama + [Auburn(216), Tennessee (217), Vanderbilt, Missouri, Wake Forest, NCST, Virginia]
7) Georgia + [Florida (212), Clemson(211), GT, Kentucky, Louisville, South Carolina, Maryland]
8  LSU + [Florida State (226), Miami (192), Ole Miss, MST, Kansas, KST, SMU]

Like the NFL 7 conference/division games, plus 4 from another conference and then rotation would take place every two years for 14 years and then start again. One OOC game (i.e. Ohio State and Michigan could continue to play) and first and second place from each conference would be in the playoffs. I am not saying we go this way, I just played out a fair scenario for a 64 team super league.

 

Edited by DanTheHorn
Did the exercise to answer some of my own questions as to how it could work. Replace Northwestern duplicate with Rutgers which is probably as bad as including Northwestern twice
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2 hours ago, DanTheHorn said:

So who gets there on conference based on money and success in the last 25 years:

1) USC + [UCLA, Oregon, Washington, Arizona, Arizona State, Utah, BYU]
2) Notre Dame + [Virginia Tech (209), Stanford, Colorado, Syracuse, Boston College, North Carolina, Duke]
3) Ohio State + [Penn State (216), West Virginia (206), Pitt, Purdue, Northwestern, Illinois, Indiana]
4) Michigan + [Wisconsin (214), Nebraska(203), Michigan State, Iowa, Iowa State, Minnesota, Northwestern]
5) Texas + [Oklahoma (263), Aggy (167),  Oklahoma State, Arkansas, TCU, TT, Baylor
6) Alabama + [Auburn(216), Tennessee (217), Vanderbilt, Missouri, Wake Forest, NCST, Virginia]
7) Georgia + [Florida (212), Clemson(211), GT, Kentucky, Louisville, South Carolina, Maryland]
8  LSU + [Florida State (226), Miami (192), Ole Miss, MST, Kansas, KST, SMU]

Like the NFL 7 conference/division games, plus 4 from another conference and then rotation would take place every two years for 14 years and then start again. One OOC game (i.e. Ohio State and Michigan could continue to play) and first and second place from each conference would be in the playoffs. I am not saying we go this way, I just played out a fair scenario for a 64 team super league.

Pass.

I think you’ll end up with 3 conferences ranging from 20 teams (like the SEC) to 24 teams like the Big12.

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On 8/3/2024 at 9:22 AM, Al_4_ISU said:

OSU and Wazzu fans thinking they might get a Big 12 invite is like Utah and Kansas fans thinking they might get a Big 10/SEC invite.

If it was going to happen, it would have a long time ago.

For the record, I’d enjoy having both, but their profile is much more similar to MWC schools.

I'm pretty good friends with the head coach at one of these schools. Regardless what the fans think, they are pretty resigned to the fact that a couple....maybe 3 conferences will form a super league and these two schools will keep the pac name and raid the mwc to be one of the best of the rest.  They simply don't have the resources to compete at the superleage level and would rather compete in a strong regional conference that will play for whatever the tier 2 football playoffs look like. 

May also add Gonzaga and St Mary's for basketball. 

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On 8/12/2024 at 11:42 AM, DanTheHorn said:

 

So who gets there on conference based on money and success in the last 25 years:

1) USC + [UCLA, Oregon, Washington, Arizona, Arizona State, Utah, BYU]
2) Notre Dame + [Virginia Tech (209), Stanford, Colorado, Syracuse, Boston College, North Carolina, Duke]
3) Ohio State + [Penn State (216), West Virginia (206), Pitt, Purdue, Northwestern, Illinois, Indiana]
4) Michigan + [Wisconsin (214), Nebraska(203), Michigan State, Iowa, Iowa State, Minnesota, Northwestern]
5) Texas + [Oklahoma (263), Aggy (167),  Oklahoma State, Arkansas, TCU, TT, Baylor] 
6) Alabama + [Auburn(216), Tennessee (217), Vanderbilt, Missouri, Wake Forest, NCST, Virginia]
7) Georgia + [Florida (212), Clemson(211), GT, Kentucky, Louisville, South Carolina, Maryland]
8  LSU + [Florida State (226), Miami (192), Ole Miss, MST, Kansas, KST, SMU]

This list illustrates how 64 teams in just too many. These five schools don't belong at all. BC, Vandy, Wake, SMU & Northwestern Here's the main two reasons. 1. They aren't very good at football. 2. They have no audience. Not only does Northwestern not belong, they are in this list of 64 teams twice. The list is correct to leave out these four schools: Rutgers, UH, Cincy & UCF. The list does leave out CAL. They are marginal for sure, but their TV numbers are top 50.

These schools have pretty poor TV numbers and very little football success: DUKE, PURDUE, ILL, IND, GT, MissST, SYRACUSE & BAYLOR.

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39 minutes ago, CustersDoctor said:

This list illustrates how 64 teams in just too many. These five schools don't belong at all. BC, Vandy, Wake, SMU & Northwestern Here's the main two reasons. 1. They aren't very good at football. 2. They have no audience. Not only does Northwestern not belong, they are in this list of 64 teams twice. The list is correct to leave out these four schools: Rutgers, UH, Cincy & UCF. The list does leave out CAL. They are marginal for sure, but their TV numbers are top 50.

These schools have pretty poor TV numbers and very little football success: DUKE, PURDUE, ILL, IND, GT, MissST, SYRACUSE & BAYLOR.

aggy nightmare fuel

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On 8/13/2024 at 1:27 PM, CustersDoctor said:

This list illustrates how 64 teams in just too many. These five schools don't belong at all. BC, Vandy, Wake, SMU & Northwestern Here's the main two reasons. 1. They aren't very good at football. 2. They have no audience. Not only does Northwestern not belong, they are in this list of 64 teams twice. The list is correct to leave out these four schools: Rutgers, UH, Cincy & UCF. The list does leave out CAL. They are marginal for sure, but their TV numbers are top 50.

These schools have pretty poor TV numbers and very little football success: DUKE, PURDUE, ILL, IND, GT, MissST, SYRACUSE & BAYLOR.

Not to mention TCU. Any super league would likely be around 40 schools before it just gets stupid. 

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I think payouts will be based on tv ratings so just about anyone who wants in will be in, within reason. My guess is it'll be around 80 teams. Places like SMU are probably willing to get paid shit to participate for exposure or other reasons. Northwestern is paying like $800 million for a new stadium, they aren't dropping to DII.

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22 minutes ago, Vertigo said:

Not to mention TCU. Any super league would likely be around 40 schools before it just gets stupid. 

Anyone not already in the Big Ten or SEC that has a stadium with less than 50k seats is highly unlikely to make it into a super league.

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21 minutes ago, TKthunder2 said:

Anyone not already in the Big Ten or SEC that has a stadium with less than 50k seats is highly unlikely to make it into a super league.

An easy way to fix this is the NFL way, black em out.    If those seats are empty, no TV.   

I think about 35 schools would be left on TV.

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1. There will be no super league until at least 2031, maybe even later than that if at all. I doubt very much that it will happen.

2. In the FSU and Clemson legal arguments, they state that if the GOR is determined to be invalid, would be invalidated upon their announcement of leaving the ACC, or only valid through 2027, then their official withdrawal from the ACC would be retroactively dated to have been given on August 15th of 2023. Anyone with any brains already knew this August 15th deadline was a nothingburger, and that FSU and Clemson were not going to give a notice of withdrawal until mediation and/or court battle was finished. (Even MHVer3 never said they were giving a notice of withdrawal by Aug 15th, and I do not know who it was that started this foolish line of speculation)

3. The general consensus among those who would know is that FSU and Clemson will not be invited to the B1G or SEC because there is no desire to add them since they would not significantly increase the value of their media contracts, as opposed to a Notre Dame. They also do not bring the potential out-of-state student demographics that a NC or VA would bring. FSU and Clemson would however increase the value of the Big 12 media contract significantly, along with increases in CFP payouts that would be gained through the 2027 look-in window that was insisted upon by Bret Yormark. There is also talk of an in-season conference semifinal that would be flex-scheduled for the 9th conference game with matchups being decided according to the standings, for which the media partners have stated they are interested in and would increase the value of the media contract. There is also speculation that Warner Brother Discovery might be interested in buying extra football/basketball content from the Big 12 if and when FSU, Clemson, and others TBD join the conference. These increases, together with some private equity and unequal distribution of the increased media and CFP revenue to FSU and Clemson, would probably make it worth it for them to leave the ACC for the Big 12.

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On 8/16/2024 at 3:35 PM, Vertigo said:

Not to mention TCU. Any super league would likely be around 40 schools before it just gets stupid. 

I hate TCU. It was fair to leave them behind in 96. But they've somehow built a brand. Their TV numbers are consistently in the top 40. They made the playoffs and beat mich-again. But on the other hand they have to be tricky to keep visiting teams from buying all the seats.

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38 minutes ago, Al_4_ISU said:

If there’s a super league it will be about 60 schools and everyone in it will have 50K + stadiums

Absolutely. When Sankey and Kevin Warren are determining the shape college football will take, they’re absolutely going to make sure they get Brett Yormark’s and JJ Phillips’ approval. 
 
I mean- why wouldn’t they say 40 teams and 60k+ stadiums?

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3 hours ago, statsman said:

Absolutely. When Sankey and Kevin Warren are determining the shape college football will take, they’re absolutely going to make sure they get Brett Yormark’s and JJ Phillips’ approval. 
 
I mean- why wouldn’t they say 40 teams and 60k+ stadiums?

The reason that I can see is this:  Do you lock up the people that watch those top 40 teams (a huge number for sure), or do you figure a way to game the sytem where you get those teams viewers, plus everyone else whose numbers help your viewing public.  Even a Wake Forest fan will watch a game if a team they play againts often (maybe considered a rival) is playing.  If even just to hope to see them lose.  If you take away those college connections, you take away some casual viewers or fans of other teams because it does not involve them in that world anymore.

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3 hours ago, statsman said:

Absolutely. When Sankey and Kevin Warren are determining the shape college football will take, they’re absolutely going to make sure they get Brett Yormark’s and JJ Phillips’ approval. 
 
I mean- why wouldn’t they say 40 teams and 60k+ stadiums?

Kevin Warren?

But to your point, teams 20-40 are essentially the same as teams 40-60 in terms of profile and viewership.  20-60 are more alike than 20-40 are like 1-20.  You lose a lot of viewers if you just cut out 20 schools that actually care.

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I'm still going with my Super Best Friends Conference with 72, or 84, teams as the best direction.

With 84 teams you have seven in each pod. Non-pod games can rotate from one pod to the next each season.

Teams will be split into one of 12 pods. Winners of the pods go to the playoffs.

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18 hours ago, statsman said:

Absolutely. When Sankey and Kevin Warren are determining the shape college football will take, they’re absolutely going to make sure they get Brett Yormark’s and JJ Phillips’ approval. 
 
I mean- why wouldn’t they say 40 teams and 60k+ stadiums?

We're getting the Bears involved in this now?

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So...who has 60+ (in ascending)

60 to 69k (17)= WVU, Tech, Jackson St, Illinois, Louisville, Kentucky. Mississippi State, Purdue, Yale, Iowa State/Virginia (tied), Cal, BYU, UTSA, Ole Miss, Virginia Tech, Iowa

70-79k (8)= Washington, Missouri, Arkansas, Michigan State, Wisconsin, USC, South Carolina, Florida State,

80-89k (5) = Notre Dame, Clemson, Oklahoma, Auburn, Florida

90-99k (3) = Nebraska, UCLA (hahahaha), UGA, 

100k+ (8) = Bama, Texas, Tennessee, LSU, Aggy, Ohio State, Penn State, Michigan

41 total, 3 are Jackson State/Yale/UTSA

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I could see doing 48 as an option.

 

- 2 Conferences
- 3 divisions each

Play your division (5), two from the other divisions in your conference (4), one from each division in the other conference (3).

That gives you a 12 game schedule.

Top 2 from each division make the playoffs, plus a wildcard. Top team from each division gets  a bye in the first round.

All rounds, save championship game, played on campus. If the bowls still have to have a tie-in, they’ll can prepare to adjust to random locations.

 

When it comes to basketball, they can have 32 teams from outside the league compete in a winner-take-all, play-in weekend, with the winners making up the final 16 spots to get to a 64-team tournament.


 

I’m not saying this is what will happen, just saying one way it could if it were at 48.

This does remedy the march-madness situation, lets the lower tier have a shot in BB, and I guess that there could be allowance for the wildcard in FB to be among the lower tier.

And it wouldn’t necessarily have to default to all b1g/sec and then a few individuals to get to 48. 
 

I could see rutgers/maryland/uk/msst maybe getting passed over for an iowa st/okie st, but those would be a rare case.

Also, don’t forget  they’ll need some of those weaker teams to eat some losses to pad the dominant teams. 

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I mean- the B1G and SEC are getting twice the media revenue, twice the ticket sales revenue (believe it or not, despite selling over twice the tickets as TCU, Texas also charges well over twice the amount), and getting the best media channels and times. And the B12 and ACC keep trucking along. We are already in the process of splitting off a super division. 
 
 

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2 hours ago, thunderlounge said:

Also, don’t forget  they’ll need some of those weaker teams to eat some losses to pad the dominant teams. 

 

18 hours ago, iamjethro said:

The reason that I can see is this:  Do you lock up the people that watch those top 40 teams (a huge number for sure), or do you figure a way to game the sytem where you get those teams viewers, plus everyone else whose numbers help your viewing public.  Even a Wake Forest fan will watch a game if a team they play againts often (maybe considered a rival) is playing.  If even just to hope to see them lose.  If you take away those college connections, you take away some casual viewers or fans of other teams because it does not involve them in that world anymore.

Everything so far (40 years+) has indicated the big programs want the benefits of beating the smaller schools but only want to toss them some peanuts instead of sharing revenue.  The easiest example is that Texas can schedule Rice almost whenever they want without giving them a seat at the table.  Therefore the new league will keep September open to play Wake Forest and TPTB assume/hope that will keep the Deacon fanbase engaged in college football. 

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47 minutes ago, notre dame joe said:

The easiest example is that Texas can schedule Rice almost whenever they want without giving them a seat at the table.

They have a seat at a table. 

Oh, and that's ripe coming from a poster with the username Notre Dame Joe. The school who thinks they should be seated at the highest table all by themselves.

 

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Edited by Deej
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1 hour ago, notre dame joe said:

 

Everything so far (40 years+) has indicated the big programs want the benefits of beating the smaller schools but only want to toss them some peanuts instead of sharing revenue.  The easiest example is that Texas can schedule Rice almost whenever they want without giving them a seat at the table.  Therefore the new league will keep September open to play Wake Forest and TPTB assume/hope that will keep the Deacon fanbase engaged in college football. 


C’mon, joe, you’re better than this. You’ve been at this as long as a lot of us.

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5 hours ago, Hurtlocker said:

So...who has 60+ (in ascending)

60 to 69k (17)= WVU, Tech, Jackson St, Illinois, Louisville, Kentucky. Mississippi State, Purdue, Yale, Iowa State/Virginia (tied), Cal, BYU, UTSA, Ole Miss, Virginia Tech, Iowa

70-79k (8)= Washington, Missouri, Arkansas, Michigan State, Wisconsin, USC, South Carolina, Florida State,

80-89k (5) = Notre Dame, Clemson, Oklahoma, Auburn, Florida

90-99k (3) = Nebraska, UCLA (hahahaha), UGA, 

100k+ (8) = Bama, Texas, Tennessee, LSU, Aggy, Ohio State, Penn State, Michigan

41 total, 3 are Jackson State/Yale/UTSA

50-59k (16) = NC State, Arizona, AZ State, GA Tech, Oregon, Indiana, Rutgers, Maryland, Utah, East Carolina, Minnesota, North Carolina, Stanford, Colorado, Kansas, K State

Others who seat between 45-49k but could fudge the numbers to get to 50k because their single largest all time attendance is 50k+ (5) = Syracuse, Rice, UTEP, Baylor, TCU, 

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I mean- the B1G and SEC are getting twice the media revenue, twice the ticket sales revenue (believe it or not, despite selling over twice the tickets as TCU, Texas also charges well over twice the amount), and getting the best media channels and times. And the B12 and ACC keep trucking along. We are already in the process of splitting off a super division. 
 
 

I really think this is going to happen, after the current TV contracts run out. ND plus the “money makers” will be in the new league. The days of the remora fish in each conference will be over. Enjoy your trip to Nashville while they’re still on the schedule.

Hook’em!!!
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3 hours ago, msucolt45 said:


I really think this is going to happen, after the current TV contracts run out. ND plus the “money makers” will be in the new league. The days of the remora fish in each conference will be over. Enjoy your trip to Nashville while they’re still on the schedule.

Hook’em!!!

Many people think it will come to an extreme but I predict a more logical conclusion for all involved is to break up the ACC keep the current conference model then breakaway with the P3 conferences. You’ll have the B1G/SEC on the major network spots with a few B12 games sprinkled in but mainly filling up tier 2 cable. You keep the Big 12 around to not piss off the government too much as they have 5 states that wouldn’t be included otherwise (and the #2/3 public schools in 5 other states as well).

The Vandy and Northwesterns of the world will eventually be convinced to take a pay cut as the leagues shift to a performance/viewership payout model, as you can clearly see what happens if you piss off your money makers like USC and FSU, and being in the club at reduced shares is far better than being out of the club like WSU/OSU.

I see this as a breakaway for most major team sports: football, m/w basketball, baseball, softball, volleyball, w soccer; but I’m less sure about those with team and individual components like tennis, golf, t&f, cross country, swim/dive (as those might benefit from remaining with the NCAA and still competing with the Ivy League and Big West type schools) or more regional sports like m soccer, Hockey, LAX, FH (as those are not played significantly by this group of 60ish schools).

I think the walk-ons might be one of the biggest reasons to breakaway as it seems most of the big name teams want the walk-ons not to count against the total roster spots.

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6 hours ago, Deej said:

They have a seat at a table. 

Oh, and that's ripe coming from a poster with the username Notre Dame Joe. The school who thinks they should be seated at the highest table all by themselves.

 

000c0065-0000-0000-0000-000000000000_00000065-07e2-0000-0000-000000000000_20121112174243_111212_kidstable_600x300.jpg

I don't know what I said that isn't common knowledge.  But I guess left to right is:

TCU, Rice, SMU, Baylor. 

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On 8/17/2024 at 10:36 PM, iamjethro said:

The reason that I can see is this:  Do you lock up the people that watch those top 40 teams (a huge number for sure), or do you figure a way to game the sytem where you get those teams viewers, plus everyone else whose numbers help your viewing public.  Even a Wake Forest fan will watch a game if a team they play againts often (maybe considered a rival) is playing.  If even just to hope to see them lose.  If you take away those college connections, you take away some casual viewers or fans of other teams because it does not involve them in that world anymore.

Not only that, but you can pick up wins from a name school as opposed to a school viewed as no different than FCS.  How many typical fans would know that Troy or Jacksonville St. or Sam Houston St. or James Madison play in a different division than Tennessee Tech, Western Illinois or Northern Colorado?

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