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Realignment talk not going away

The Tower

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Posted by Sandbagging Steve,

How many teams will be left when the dust settles in a few years? I think there's a way for all the teams to still have some involvement. I will explain that at the end of this list. Here's my list of the top 32 programs and a list if it goes to 48. There's some debate if it goes to 48, but not much debate if it stops at 32. I guess one could debate Arizona State, but that's about it. The top 32 at least come close to carrying their own weight. Everyone below that line is losing money for t

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Aggy should abstain so the vote is 13-0 and then we can then brand it on their dog.

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Hurtlocker

Hurtlocker 2212

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2 hours ago, TKthunder2 said:

So what are the Big 12’s secondary teams that are on the same level as Oregon or Auburn? Because I can’t think of any.

That’s the part I don’t agree with. In a mock draft of college football teams I think you’d see more what you call 3rd tier SEC and Big Ten team come off the board before you get to the first Big 12 selection.

Well secondary was more a response to someone that would say "but did you consider so and so" and I would say "I did, but they're secondary".   Oregon is not USC.   Auburn is not Alabama. They're not top...they're secondary.   If someone starts to wax poetic about how Indiana or Iowa or Mississippi State is somehow different than Colorado or Iowa State or Oklahoma State, I am not sure what to say.   I haven't even seen anything to prove that its right.   What I have seen, repeatedly, is if you're in the top 12, which really is the top 14 if you add FSU and Notre Dame (and FSU is realllllllly pushing it as I can almost prove they don't belong on that list), you matter.  That's our La Bleu Bloods.  If you are not, you are basically the same folding chair being moved around on the pool deck.  When you're winning, you're moved closer to the pool, when you're not you're pushed back towards the shade.   As I said, if 48 is the made-up magic number from 20 posts ago, 12 isn't the hard list, it's the 36, and the group is more alike than they are different.   The only reason half are paid one thing and half are paid another is who is beating them.

As for who comes off the board, it is a real interesting experiment right now, because prior to this year the argument was always none of these teams would rate at all without playing the top, but now they have to, so we'll see.   We won't know without time, but currently Colorado is fleecing both Oregon and Auburn.   Sure, its Prime, but its also Oregon and Auburn.  Colorado pulled just shy of 5m viewers playing North Fucking Dakota State.  Know who else pulled 4.75m playing an FCS?   No one.  The next highest G5 game is NIU beating ND and it is 3.93m.   In Auburn's two rated games so far, they've totaled 1.8m.  Totaled.   Matter a fact, Auburn and Oregon's combined 4 game audience of 5m is needed to top that single game from Colorado, who then went on to pull an additional 9m viewers in its next two rated games.   The only other teams with 14m viewers through 3 rated weeks are Georgia and Notre Dame.     Colorado is out Oregoning Oregon.

So we can argue it away with "flash in the pan", "he won't stay" or "it won't last", but at the moment if you're drafting for Q rating outside the top tier and you're not taking Colorado, you're not winning your league.    They did this last year to with 4 wins.   No other team does this, not even top brands.   

On top of that, in 3 weeks (still waiting for last week's as of this writing) we've seen 27 games with 2m or more in audience, P4 teams in those games:

  • ND - 3
  • ACC - 7  
  • B1G - 10
  • B12 - 10
  • SEC - 17

As stated, the SEC has the big hitters, the Big Ten has the money-making organization.  

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Hurtlocker

Hurtlocker 2212

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Update with Week 4 data, 2m+ audience games:

  • ND - 3
  • ACC - 7  
  • B1G - 16
  • B12 - 14
  • SEC - 24

Fun Facts:

  • 85% of the ACC's games on this list occurred in weeks 0/1.   The only one after was Tennessee/NCSt
  • Ohio State/Marshal drew 3.96m,  Clemson/NCSt ended up with 1.95m.    Even Florida/MSU drew 2.64m on ESPN in the same slot
  • Fox is winning on Fridays.   Kstate/Arizona drew 2.7m while Ill/Nebraska going to overtime punched up to 4.2m.   I think ESPN only had two 2m+ Friday games for the entire regular season last year (Kstate/OkSt and Colorado/Stanford), Fox has two in their first two outings.   Expect them to market this more.
  • There have been eight 6m+ games so far, all involve the big boys: 
    • Week 1 - Miami/Florida - 6.35m
    • Week 1 - Clemson/Georgia - 7.58m
    • Week 1 - ND/A&M - 7.62M
    • Week 1 - USC/LSU - 8.62m
    • Week 2 - Texas/Michigan - 9.2m
    • Week 3 - Georgia/Kentucky - 6.6m
    • Week 4 - Tenn/OU - 6.27m
    • Week 4 - USC/Michigan - 6.32m
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Hurtlocker

Hurtlocker 2212

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Just when I thought realignment couldn't get dumber.   Instead of merging to 13 and adding someone like North Texas or UTSA or Texas State to grow to 16 and keep all the money in their war chest to invest, they're just going to pass it around, break into two conferences smaller than 8, need to add someone to get to 8, and be worth less in the long run.

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LTbear

LTbear 4168

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45 minutes ago, Lonestar88 said:

Mountain West needs two teams, because Hawaii is football only. The other sports need 8 total teams too.

Multiple people have said the rule is 7 full members but at least 8 for an FBS football conference. Anyone who knows for sure, please chime in.

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Lonestar88

Lonestar88 4629

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19 minutes ago, LTbear said:

Multiple people have said the rule is 7 full members but at least 8 for an FBS football conference. Anyone who knows for sure, please chime in.

I stand corrected, in D1 you’re good with 7 outside of football. I looked it up.

 

10 minutes ago, 'stache said:

I thought the 8 team thing was for CFP eligibility but I could have made that up.

No, you’re right, I was wrong.

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TKthunder2

TKthunder2 4985

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4 minutes ago, 'stache said:

I thought the 8 team thing was for CFP eligibility but I could have made that up.

Spoiler

 

Under NCAA regulations, all Division I conferences defined as "multisport conferences" must meet the following criteria:

A total of at least seven active Division I members.

Separate from the above, at least seven active Division I members that sponsor both men's and women's basketball.

Sponsorship of at least 12 NCAA Division I sports.

Minimum of six men's sports, with the following additional restrictions:

Men's basketball is a mandatory sport, and at least seven members must sponsor that sport.

Non-football conferences must sponsor at least two men's team sports other than basketball.

At least six members must sponsor five men's sports other than basketball, including either football or two other team sports.

Minimum of six women's sports, with the following additional restrictions:

Women's basketball is a mandatory sport, with at least seven members sponsoring that sport.

At least two other women's team sports must be sponsored.

At least six members must sponsor five women's sports other than basketball, including two other team sports. If a conference officially sponsors an NCAA "emerging sport" for women (as of 2023, acrobatics & tumbling, equestrianism, rugby union, stunt, triathlon, or wrestling), that sport will be counted if five members (instead of six) sponsor it.

Schools in all divisions that sponsor athletic programs for only one sex/gender need only meet the sports sponsorship requirements for that sex/gender.

Football Bowl Subdivision

Conferences in the Football Bowl Subdivision must meet a more stringent set of NCAA requirements than other conferences. Among these additional NCAA regulations, institutions in the Football Bowl Subdivision must be "multisport conferences" and participate in conference play in at least six men's and eight women's sports, including football, men's and women's basketball, and at least two other women's team sports. Each school may count one men's and one women's sport not sponsored by its primary conference toward the above limits, as long as that sport competes in another Division I conference. The men's and women's sports so counted need not be the same sport.

 

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Evil Bill Obrien

Evil Bill Obrien 3257

Posted
Posted (edited)
3 hours ago, utee94 said:

Tim Reynolds on X: "FSU plays Texas State. Here's the Armadillos' quarterback and kicker. #40Yards http://t.co/ykP2K02iVH" / X

 

22 minutes ago, 'stache said:

Did aggy ever sue on this? If not I'm surprised.

Have low key always thought that at some point in the future, Texas State should do a "Necessary Roughness" game and be the Armadillos for a day, maybe see if you can get Scott Bakula to come down to San Marcos or something along those lines. Would for sure get North Texas, Texas Southern, and Aggy in a litigious mood and among other reasons is prob never going to happen tho...

But how fun would it be to see this logo on something in a real game:

Texas State's Potential Rivalries - Underdog Dynasty

Edited by Evil Bill Obrien
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On 9/24/2024 at 1:15 PM, Texas Wahoo said:

They're thinking the same thing they thought when they left the WAC, they are trying to ditch the bottom half of the conference.

What's funny is the 8 are lined up on different sides.

Utah and BYU are off to the Big 12.

San Diego St. and Colorado St. are with the Pac XX

UNLV, Wyoming, Air Force and New Mexico are with the MWC.

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On 9/24/2024 at 10:51 PM, gatormarc said:

And Jake from State Farm.

And I understand former UGA QB Jake Fromm (with the hot mom) has been cut.  So he could do announcing and his mom the sideline interviews for the State Farm PAC.

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In line with the comments above about the top tier, I ran across this list of FBS schools by winning % the other day.  When you exclude the newbies (Boise, Kennesaw, Coastal Carolina, App. St., James Madison, Ga. Southern), it just runs straight down the list of who's who. 

Ohio State, Alabama, Michigan, Notre Dame, Oklahoma, Texas, USC, Penn St., Nebraska

Tennessee, Florida State, Georgia, LSU, Miami (FL), Florida, Auburn, Clemson, Washington

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/NCAA_Division_I_FBS_football_win–loss_records

Oregon is down at #40 and Colorado at #47.  I've posted before a list of the top 19/20 schools for #1, top 3 and top 5 finishes since 1960 and its those first 17 above with Washington, Oregon and Colorado #s 18-20.

NCAA Division I FBS football records[1][2][3]
Team Won Lost Tied Pct. Years Total Games Conference
Ohio State 966 333 53 .734 135 1352 Big Ten
Alabama 968 337 43 .734 130 1348 SECTooltip Southeastern Conference
Michigan 1006 354 36 .734 145 1396 Big Ten
Notre Dame 950 338 42 .730 135 1330 Independent
Oklahoma 947 341 53 .726 130 1341 SEC
Boise State 491 188 2 .722 57 681 Mountain WestTooltip Mountain West Conference
Texas 951 392 33 .703 132 1376 SEC
USC 877 368 54 .696 131 1299 Big Ten
Penn State 932 409 41 .689 138 1382 Big Ten
Kennesaw State 71 33 0 .683 10 103 CUSATooltip Conference USA
Nebraska 920 424 40 .679 135 1383 Big Ten
Tennessee 868 414 53 .670 128 1346 SEC
Florida State 581 284 17 .668 78 882 ACCTooltip Atlantic Coast Conference
Georgia 884 429 54 .666 131 1367 SEC
Coastal Carolina 169 89 0 .655 22 258 SBCTooltip Sun Belt Conference
Appalachian State 666 356 29 .648 95 1051 SBC
LSU 808 435 47 .645 131 1327 SEC
Miami (FL) 666 388 19 .630 99 1073 ACC
James Madison 371 221 4 .626 52 596 SBC
Florida 759 447 40 .625 118 1245 SEC
Auburn 801 472 47 .625 132 1320 SEC
Clemson 799 473 45 .624 129 1317 ACC
Georgia Southern 420 254 10 .621 61 684 SBC
Washington 777 467 50 .619 135 1294 Big Ten
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bullet 1596

Posted
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3 hours ago, LTbear said:

Multiple people have said the rule is 7 full members but at least 8 for an FBS football conference. Anyone who knows for sure, please chime in.

I don't know.  I've heard people say definitively you need 8 full football members, but never say how they know that.

I do know you need 8 football members to qualify for the College football playoff conference champions slot.

I do know you could have 7 full football members and a Gonzaga and be an NCAA Division I conference with autobids in all NCAA championships (assuming you meet the sports sponsorship requirements, but you could bring in affiliates for sports like baseball).

What I don't know is if 7 full football members, Gonzaga and UConn for football only would be enough for the CFP and to be classified an FBS conference or if your 8 FBS schools need to play all sponsored sports in conference.

 

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Hurtlocker

Hurtlocker 2212

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Had you told me over a decade ago that when we were in the infant realignment posts doing flightware checks for the Pac 16 rumors, that Texas State would potentially join the Pac in 2025 it would have blown my mind.    That was not something I am not sure anyone mapped out and I'm pretty sure we mapped everything out including Prestige Worldwide.

Yet here we are.

mind blown gifs | WiffleGif

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Huckleberry

Huckleberry 32848

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Posted (edited)

I mean what are their options? They've done well so far given the hand they were dealt. And of course it will be better, they just took the best teams in the MWC. The one they didn't get that people thought they should have just got outed as being a broke-ass program that has coaches making promises they can't deliver on. 

Edited by Huckleberry
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TKthunder2

TKthunder2 4985

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8 minutes ago, Huckleberry said:

I mean what are their options? They've done well so far given the hand they were dealt. And of course it will be better, they just took the best teams in the MWC. The one they didn't get that people thought they should have just got outed as being a broke-ass program that has coaches making promises they can't deliver on. 

Texas State would be a legit option that somewhat works geographically speaking. Stick at 8 play round robin and do 4 out of conference games.

Washington State
Oregon State
Boise State
Fresno State
San Diego State
Utah State
Colorado State
Texas State or Toledo and Northern Illinois?

I’m mean for shit’s sake they could just stick a 7 and add UConn football until the 2032 when UNLV is available again.

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Huckleberry

Huckleberry 32848

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Posted (edited)

Selfishly and strategically they should have tried harder to bring in the Texas State/UTSA rivalry. Pac-7 should have offered them a bunch to make it happen. You are staving off death. 

At this point they should still try to beat the MWC to Texas State to reach 8. Get in the central time zone with a potential growth program. Then take your time. Maybe UTEP, but once you reach conference size requirements you can do more thorough research. 

Edited by Huckleberry
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TKthunder2

TKthunder2 4985

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3 minutes ago, Hairy Biped said:

I have a well place source tell me that Sam Houston has been contacted by the PAC.  Sam has been in 3 different conferences in the last 5 or 6 years.  Might as well.

This is dumb. They have like a 12,000 seat stadium. There is no way.

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TKthunder2

TKthunder2 4985

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1 minute ago, 'stache said:

Isn't like a literal hole in the ground too? No idea why they are moving to FBS.

It’s not so bad, been there many times, it’s a nice enough place for a high school playoff game, it just small for FBS. I never believed they go to FBS until the news broke. I figured with the old capacity requirements they would have to make the stadium bigger first, but those just aren’t enforced at all anymore it seems.

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Hairy Biped

Hairy Biped 585

Posted
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4 minutes ago, TKthunder2 said:

This is dumb. They have like a 12,000 seat stadium. There is no way.

 

2 minutes ago, 'stache said:

Isn't like a literal hole in the ground too? No idea why they are moving to FBS.

Agree on both, but they do have some advantages.  Proximity to 4th largest city and top 15 busiest airport.  Rich recruiting grounds.  They could always play games at NRG like they are this weekend.  That's how they fulfill their FBS attendance commitment.  I think it's a crazy idea, but the PAC is desperate at this point.

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TKthunder2

TKthunder2 4985

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13 minutes ago, Huckleberry said:

Selfishly and strategically they should have tried harder to bring in the Texas State/UTSA rivalry. Pac-7 should have offered them a bunch to make it happen. You are staving off death. 

At this point they should still try to beat the MWC to Texas State to reach 8. Get in the central time zone with a potential growth program. Then take your time. Maybe UTEP, but once you reach conference size requirements you can do more thorough research. 

I think UTEP will finally get its MWC invite. CUSA might even waive the exit fee if they take NMSU with them now that they have Delaware and Missouri State upgrading.

CUSA was looking real hard at Eastern Kentucky previously, I’m confident they’d trade the extra travel to UTEP/NMSU for EKU and shrink their conference travel costs significantly.

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Hairy Biped

Hairy Biped 585

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Posted

Also, they just approved a $60 million renovation of the stadium.  Most of that is upgrading the press box and luxury suites and adding a "club" level.  But the stadium will still be small FBS stadium.  FTR it currently holds 14,000 and I played there in a playoff game in 1986.

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