Realignment talk not going away

[nineliveslost 2753]

2 minutes ago, jTower said:

Or keep their conferences separate and play championship game between the two.  They can take their rights to market separately.

I think they have to have 8 teams to make a conference. Each have 7 and fighting over the last 2 good ones 

[Hurtlocker 2212]

9 hours ago, Evil Bill Obrien said:

Think this would likely be a nonstarter for most if not all of the G5/6 leagues, they don't have much but that 1 access spot (or just the possibility of access to the "Big Boy" playoff) is something they will not want to ever lose if they can possibly help it.  Feel like they would all try and fight that out in court and make it as painful as possible for the P4 to pull the plug on that. Sure it's likely guaranteed to be a 12 seed going up against a 5 but the exposure that 12 seed gets, and the low chance of one of them eventually ambushing a 5 seed is worth way more than any "kill fee".

A G5/6 playoff of the "best of the rest" outside of the one chosen champion to who gets sent to trial by combat in the "Big Boy" playoff would be interesting and I personally would be all for it, think you have the right idea of running it week ahead and between games of the other playoff but feel like you would run into some of the same issues that currently exist with bowls a-la opt outs since it's not the "real" playoff and don't know how you can work that out and whoever is going to pony up the money to support a G5/6 playoff won't be very enthusiastic towards that.

Yeah I think the only way it works is if the CFB does it in conjunction with the current format, giving the G5 a bigger market for more teams or a bigger pay out, as in your kill fee PLUS whatever the TV brings for this secondary.  Its worth it to get one more P4 into the 12 and its worth it to keep the antitrust wolves at bay.   And for us junkies, now we get 2 x 12 playoffs instead of one.

[Hook1997 5354]

Then Texas State goes and loses to freaking Sam Houston on they day they get invited??

[atomheartbevo 89652]

22 hours ago, nineliveslost said:

I think they have to have 8 teams to make a conference. Each have 7 and fighting over the last 2 good ones 

https://www.espn.com/college-football/story/_/id/41498445/sources-texas-state-gets-offer-join-mountain-west

Yep, 8.

Quote

Texas State officials have received a verbal offer to join the Mountain West, sources told ESPN on Saturday. A decision is expected in the upcoming days as talks continue. The Pac-12 has also expressed interest, but that has yet to yield an offer, sources said. Texas State is in the Sun Belt, and the exit fee for a league change is expected to be $5 million.

Texas State has a rising program that's been in FBS play since 2012. It played one season in the WAC before joining the Sun Belt in 2013. The school played and won its first bowl game as an FBS member in 2023, as they finished 8-5 under coach G.J. Kinne and defeated Rice 45-21 in the First Responder Bowl.

Quote

The Mountain West's discussions with Texas State intensified after the decision by UNLV and Air Force to remain in the league last week. That gave the league two linchpin schools to build around moving forward.

The Mountain West has six full-time members, and Texas State would give it seven. It needs eight full-time members to meet conference minimum requirements, with the announcement of the upcoming departures of Fresno State, Boise State, San Diego State, Colorado State and Utah State.

Quote

The league's six full-time members are UNLV, Air Force, Nevada, San Jose State, New Mexico and Wyoming. Hawai'i is in the league as a football member. The Pac-12 also needs one additional member, as it currently sits at seven.

One of the issues facing both leagues is that there are so few unaffiliated schools in the Western part of the country. The potential of the Mountain West adding members in Texas would expand the league's footprint and potentially add a program in the Central time zone.

 

[bullet 1596]

https://www.hubcityspokes.com/college-sports-local-content-collegeuniversities-local-sports-sports-state-sports-usm-golden-48

Saw this elsewhere.  90% Texas St. is going to leave Sun Belt and likely to MWC.

Also Thamel says UTEP/MWC talks are serious and have mutual interest.

The thing for the MWC to do is just invite Texas St., UTEP, New Mexico St. and force the Pac to settle for Sam Houston St.

 

[Texas Wahoo 3393]

Good to hear, as UTEP fits better there. 

[TKthunder2 4990]

19 minutes ago, Texas Wahoo said:

Good to hear, as UTEP fits better there. 

Easy to predict (many did) as it makes perfect sense. It’s pretty cold blooded if both the MWC and PAC leave out New Mexico State as the only G5 FBS team in not located in the Central or Eastern Time Zone when both conferences are hurting for members.

I have no idea what the PAC is doing. If they pass on Texas State the only other option might be for them to go after Hawaii as a full member, wonder what, if anything, they had to sign to stay in the MWC.

I still stand by that Sam Houston is not an option here, but maybe they go back to a familiar school like Louisiana Tech who spent a decade+ with the old WAC schools. Louisiana Tech has to be disappointed in what has happened with CUSA and their facility/alumni knows all about late night games out West.

[USC Traveler 488]

3 hours ago, TKthunder2 said:

I have no idea what the PAC is doing.

If they pass on Texas State the only other option might be for them to go after Hawaii as a full member, wonder what, if anything, they had to sign to stay in the MWC.

Apparently, neither does the PAC.

Dellenger said on one of the Yahoo CFB podcasts last week that the PAC was talking to Hawaii, but didn't make an offer, and then Hawaii signed on to stay in the MWC.  The program is in shambles now, but some of that is temporary, and Hawaii would bring a lot of positives.  They could do a lot worse for team # 8.

Plan A (AAC schools), Plan B (UNLV and/or AFA) and Plan C (Hawaii) have all failed to materialize.

Maybe Hawaii has an escape clause in the MWC deal if they get an offer as a full member of another conference.

Otherwise, the PAC is on to Plan D.  Could the below be Plan D ?  Sac St would make for easy travel, and give the conference a presence in a 3rd part of CA.

 

 

 

[Evil Bill Obrien 3277]

On 9/28/2024 at 5:50 PM, Hook1997 said:

Then Texas State goes and loses to freaking Sam Houston on they day they get invited??

Upside: probably get to hold onto GJ for one more year after that...but if things don't start turning around soon may not be as enthusiastic about that in November...

 

10 hours ago, bullet said:

https://www.hubcityspokes.com/college-sports-local-content-collegeuniversities-local-sports-sports-state-sports-usm-golden-48

Saw this elsewhere.  90% Texas St. is going to leave Sun Belt and likely to MWC.

Also Thamel says UTEP/MWC talks are serious and have mutual interest.

The thing for the MWC to do is just invite Texas St., UTEP, New Mexico St. and force the Pac to settle for Sam Houston St.

 

Still holding out hope that Texas State is taking that MWC offer and forwarding it to the PAC and telling them to match or do better and we are in, not super thrilled at the prospect of leaving the Belt for this version of the MWC

[BurntOrange&White 39931]

I'm just going to post this in here because it's funny.

 

 

 

 

[Hurtlocker 2212]

UCLA may want to consider joining the Pac 8 again.

[BurntOrange&White 39931]

 

 

 

[TKthunder2 4990]

About damn time.

[Evil Bill Obrien 3277]

 

Not football related but very interesting...

 

[Al_4_ISU 12458]

5 minutes ago, Evil Bill Obrien said:

 

Not football related but very interesting...

 

As a fan of a Big 12 school, I'm glad it's not us adding them.

[Huckleberry 32851]

Those are both good moves all the way around. 

[Evil Bill Obrien 3277]

 

Yeah no thanks to Texas State getting involved in a MWC with FCS Aggy 

Edited October 1 by Evil Bill Obrien

['stache 21802]

Gonzaga getting a full share without playing football is really odd. Looks like they make about $3.2M in the WCC which is most of that conferences' distribution, so it's a big boost assuming PAC gets $10-$12M. The economics are odd though but good for them. We'll see if they continue their run when Few retires.

 

https://www.seattletimes.com/sports/gonzaga-bulldogs/gonzaga-would-see-disbursements-more-than-double-in-joining-pac-12/

Edited October 1 by 'stache

[bullet 1596]

40 minutes ago, Huckleberry said:

Those are both good moves all the way around. 

Yes.  And not only that, they both did it on Tuesday.

[bullet 1596]

https://pac-12.com/

Gonzaga is official.  On the website.

[Saint Austin 745]

14 minutes ago, Evil Bill Obrien said:

 

Yeah no thanks to Texas State getting involved in a MWC with FCS Aggy 

Weird move. Sam Houston would make a lot more sense.

[bullet 1596]

https://themw.com/

 

UTEP to MWC is official.

[TKthunder2 4990]

30 minutes ago, bullet said:

https://themw.com/

 

UTEP to MWC is official.

Poor NMSU.

['stache 21802]

So is TXST joining the PAC? That would put both at 8 football playing members.

[Evil Bill Obrien 3277]

1 hour ago, 'stache said:

So is TXST joining the PAC? That would put both at 8 football playing members.

The TXST homer in me says yes, only ready to move conference option in FBS on the table right now with a cheap buyout and lots of potential. The pessimist in me says PAC prob going to reach back out to Memphis, Tulane, maybe USF and say, "hey look, we got Gonzaga for basketball like we said we would, we know we low balled you with $2.5 million towards the buyout, what's your number?" and see what they say. From there who knows but this realignment round seems to be going pretty quick so have to guess we will find out shortly. 

['stache 21802]

Just now, Evil Bill Obrien said:

The TXST homer in me says yes, only ready to move conference option in FBS on the table right now with a cheap buyout and lots of potential. The pessimist in me says PAC prob going to reach back out to Memphis, Tulane, maybe USF and say, "hey look, we got Gonzaga for basketball like we said we would, we know we low balled you with $2.5 million towards the buyout, what's your number?" and see what they say. From there who knows but this realignment round seems to be going pretty quick so have to guess we will find out shortly. 

I don't think it changes the numbers for the AAC teams. If anything, I think it's odd that Gonzaga is going to be getting part of the football money without playing football, that means less football revenue for the football playing programs. I might be thinking of it wrong but that's how I interpreted the latest Gonzaga articles. Overall, I just don't see the new PAC media contract being more than the AAC, at least not enough to cover the extra travel expenses with enough leftover to say they are truly better off going west than staying AAC.

[BurntOrange&White 39931]

2 hours ago, Saint Austin said:

Weird move. Sam Houston would make a lot more sense.

Sam Houston State doesn't have mountains, idiot!

[bullet 1596]

4 hours ago, 'stache said:

So is TXST joining the PAC? That would put both at 8 football playing members.

Saw someone say McMurphy said on 365 that Texas St. was on the back burner for the Pac.  They were focusing on other schools.

https://www.courant.com/2024/10/01/source-uconn-wont-join-pac-12-doesnt-consider-conference-the-right-fit/?share=tcjnnrr2onohtnon1di0

Hartford paper says UConn has closed the door on the PAC.

 

[Texas Wahoo 3393]

 

[TKthunder2 4990]

1 hour ago, Texas Wahoo said:

 

Good. If they get a PAC offer they should go, but I think the Sun Belt is better than the MWC.

App St, Marshall, GA Southern, Southern Miss, ULL > Air Force, Wyoming, UNLV, SJSU, Hawaii

[UTexasFight 9431]

https://www.wsj.com/sports/football/college-football-college-student-football-league-93b7416d?st=EvmkdL&reflink=article_copyURL_share

12 6 team divisions. Play the 5 in your division and 8 outside. I do like “Texas” has its own division.

 

 

 

[Evil Bill Obrien 3277]

Slamming the door a little hard on the MWC but good for Don for making the right call:

 

 

[Richard Kimball 1494]

49 minutes ago, UTexasFight said:

https://www.wsj.com/sports/football/college-football-college-student-football-league-93b7416d?st=EvmkdL&reflink=article_copyURL_share

12 6 team divisions. Play the 5 in your division and 8 outside. I do like “Texas” has its own division.

 

 

 

I started to write more about this proposal, but this sums it up. 

[WelfareBuysMyWeed 5388]

4 hours ago, UTexasFight said:

https://www.wsj.com/sports/football/college-football-college-student-football-league-93b7416d?st=EvmkdL&reflink=article_copyURL_share

12 6 team divisions. Play the 5 in your division and 8 outside. I do like “Texas” has its own division.

 

 

 

they could call it the swc

[Texas Wahoo 3393]

 

Definitely sounds like the Pac-12 is hoping to get more concrete media numbers and then going back after one or more of the AAC schools.

[thunderlounge 7816]

Somebody must have called them out on whatever fake numbers they were spewing. Seems awfully familiar, like the pac has done something very similar that didn’t end well. 
 

[Saint Austin 745]

Am I the only one who thinks even this version of the MW would still be an upgrade over the Sun Belt for Texas St.?

[TKthunder2 4990]

23 minutes ago, Saint Austin said:

Am I the only one who thinks even this version of the MW would still be an upgrade over the Sun Belt for Texas St.?

Yes you are.

App St > Air Force
Marshall > Hawaii
GA Southern > Wyoming
James Madison > UNLV
Louisiana > SJSU
ULM > UTEP
Southern Miss > Nevada
Coastal Carolina > New Mexico

and

ODU, Troy, South Alabama, Arkansas St, and GA State are better than anything the MWC can add from CUSA.
 

[TKthunder2 4990]

41 minutes ago, Texas Wahoo said:

 

Definitely sounds like the Pac-12 is hoping to get more concrete media numbers and then going back after one or more of the AAC schools.

Both the PAC and the MWC are sitting at 7 full FBS members. They both need one more.

PAC has Gonzaga, but they ain’t adding football.

Adding Texas State seems like the most obvious move here, but the PAC consistently think to highly of themselves and keep stepping on their dicks every chance they get. Is Texas State any worse than Utah State? Fuck no.

MWC has Hawaii football only.

Hawaii moving its non fb sports from the Big West to the MWC is the easiest solution.

[Huckleberry 32851]

Texas State isn't big enough on its own to justify an entirely new region is probably what they're thinking. 

Pac-12 is hoping media numbers come back big enough to entice Memphis and Tulane. Then a long term plan for an eastern football division of Colorado State, Memphis, Tulane, Texas State, insert 2 more schools here starts to make sense. 

I of course am rooting for a Texas State invite either way but we'll see.

Edited October 2 by Huckleberry

[Texas Wahoo 3393]

46 minutes ago, Saint Austin said:

Am I the only one who thinks even this version of the MW would still be an upgrade over the Sun Belt for Texas St.?

It's probably a bit of an upgrade, but not enough to make the move.

 

 

[Evil Bill Obrien 3277]

Yeah the MWC minus the schools they already lost plus UTEP is at best a very slight upgrade over the SBC and then when you take into account extra travel expenses and such likely gonna end up being a downgrade money wise, and it's all about them Benjamin's yo...

 

So here's my TXST realignment scenarios in order of personal preference (and what I think is probably best outcome for the school):

1. Get a PAC invite after they come back with solid media money numbers (and if the money makes sense over SBC, which if it doesn't than big fuckin yikes for the PAC) Would love to market the I-35 rivalry with UTSA and go to the PAC with them and Tulane and/or Memphis and maybe 2 more throw in AAC schools (Texas trio with UNT and/or Rice could be fun). 

2. Get a AAC invite either after Memphis/Tulane leaves, but hopefully not after UTSA leaves, terrible optics to get left behind them conference wise again, would prob legit rather go to option 3 and stay in the SBC than have that happen. Again only do this if the money makes sense, which should be way easier than a PAC or MWC move since you got all the Texas Schools for shorter/easier travel. 

3. Sit tight in the Sunbelt and grow the program, at a slower pace than jumping up to the PAC or small stepping up to the AAC, but still growing. SBC should see increased TV money next go around with ESPN and figure with the moves that have been made won't end up being that much different than AAC or MWC money once they get knocked down for the schools that have already left both, hell might not even bee that far behind PAC money if they really fuck things up...

and now that I have put those 3 scenarios out in the world, what really happens is prob gonna be scenario 4: something I can't even possibly imagine right now


 

Edited October 2 by Evil Bill Obrien

[Al_4_ISU 12458]

I think the SBC is clearly #3 in the current G5 landscape, and is probably better at football than the new MWC is going to be.

It's really a pretty damn entertaining league with some invested fanbases and good players.  It seems like a pretty solid model for G5 football at this stage.

[NCMountaineer 100]

1 hour ago, Al_4_ISU said:

I think the SBC is clearly #3 in the current G5 landscape, and is probably better at football than the new MWC is going to be.

It's really a pretty damn entertaining league with some invested fanbases and good players.  It seems like a pretty solid model for G5 football at this stage.

The Sun Belt played things perfectly in the last round - building a regional conference around teams that were making their way up from FCS as strong brands already at that level and keeping things within an established footprint, not chasing markets but chasing value with teams of similar competitive level and background makes for an entertaining product rather than chasing markets where the market already has established teams they care about and couldn't give a damn about the team being added. 

Using that line of thinking I honestly think the new MWC would be better off approaching the two Montanas, NDSU, and SDSU about making the move to FBS from FCS to round out their numbers but I don't think they're willing to make that move even though it would be a more compelling product. 

[BurntOrange&White 39931]

2 hours ago, Texas Wahoo said:

It's probably a bit of an upgrade, but not enough to make the move.

 

 

So if Pac says we'll give you 6 mill a year that seems pretty fucking enticing.

[USC Traveler 488]

2 hours ago, Huckleberry said:

Texas State isn't big enough on its own to justify an entirely new region is probably what they're thinking. 

Pac-12 is hoping media numbers come back big enough to entice Memphis and Tulane. Then a long term plan for an eastern football division of Colorado State, Memphis, Tulane, Texas State, insert 2 more schools here starts to make sense. 

I of course am rooting for a Texas State invite either way but we'll see.

This is what I was saying about 10-20 pages ago, which is why I thought the PAC was clueless when they only offered Memphis, Tulane, UTSA and USF.

They should have added enough schools in the West to give them a stable base, then offer Memphis and Tulane along with 3 or 4 schools in TX to create a Central division.  It never made any sense from a Memphis or Tulane pov to come with only UTSA and USF- too much travel for every game besides Memphis vs Tulane games.

Going in with UTSA, TX St and UNT (with CSU in the division to make it 6 teams) would be a much better proposition for Memphis and Tulane,

9 game schedule, with two road game vs the other division every year, so they'd only go to Boise, Pullman, Corvallis, etc, once every 3 years.

Much easier travel for all their sports, and with the size of the media deal, limiting travel costs will matter.

//

I still think it would be smart to lock up Tx St and get to 8, then go after the other schools as a group.

 

[USC Traveler 488]

2 hours ago, Al_4_ISU said:

 

Al- I quoted you to see what you thought, but also wanted to hear from other B12ers like @'stache and @oSuJeff97

I was looking at the schedule for CFB for the last weekend of the regular season, and the B12 schedule looks like it was put together by someone who has no understanding of which schools have rivalries and history with each other.  

Outside of Farmageddon and the Territorial Cup, none of it made sense.  Utah at UCF ?  TCU at UC ?  UH at BYU ?  Tech-WVU ?  WTF ?

I was expecting to see the Holy War, TCU-Baylor, etc.

Looks like the B12 made a conscious decision to spread the rivalry games out earlier in the season.  Are you guys happy with that ?

I realize The Game, USC-ND, UT vs aggy, Iron Bowl, etc are all going to soak up a ton of oxygen that weekend, but for me, there's something special about rivalry weekend.  Utah vs UCF or the Holy War on rivalry weekend-  seems like an easy choice.

 

 

Edited October 2 by USC Traveler

[LTbear 4168]

5 minutes ago, USC Traveler said:

Al- I quoted you to see what you thought, but also wanted to hear from other B12ers like @'stache and @oSuJeff97

I was looking at the schedule for CFB for the last weekend of the regular season, and the B12 schedule looks like it was put together by someone who has no understanding of which schools have rivalries and history with each other.  

Outside of Farmageddon and the Territorial Cup, none of it made sense.  Utah at UCF ?  TCU at UC ?  UH at BYU ?  Tech-WVU ?  WTF ?

I was expecting to see the Holy War, TCU-Baylor, etc.

Looks like the B12 made a conscious decision to spread the rivalry games out earlier in the season.  Are you guys happy with that ?

I realize The Game, USC-ND, UT vs aggy, Iron Bowl, etc are all going to soak up a ton of oxygen that weekend, but for me, there's something special about rivalry weekend.  Utah vs UCF or the Holy War on rivalry weekend-  seems like an easy choice.

 

 

I very much enjoy rivalry games being spread out. I even wish those end-of-season games between SEC and B1G rivals would be spread out. Yes, it's cool having a rivalry-palooza around Thanksgiving, but when there's too many on I can't watch them all. 

[NCMountaineer 100]

49 minutes ago, USC Traveler said:

Al- I quoted you to see what you thought, but also wanted to hear from other B12ers like @'stache and @oSuJeff97

I was looking at the schedule for CFB for the last weekend of the regular season, and the B12 schedule looks like it was put together by someone who has no understanding of which schools have rivalries and history with each other.  

Outside of Farmageddon and the Territorial Cup, none of it made sense.  Utah at UCF ?  TCU at UC ?  UH at BYU ?  Tech-WVU ?  WTF ?

I was expecting to see the Holy War, TCU-Baylor, etc.

Looks like the B12 made a conscious decision to spread the rivalry games out earlier in the season.  Are you guys happy with that ?

I realize The Game, USC-ND, UT vs aggy, Iron Bowl, etc are all going to soak up a ton of oxygen that weekend, but for me, there's something special about rivalry weekend.  Utah vs UCF or the Holy War on rivalry weekend-  seems like an easy choice.

 

 

Interestingly I'd say the one plus about no longer being in the same conference is that when we play VT or Pitt it's no longer buried under an absolute deluge of other big matchups. You get the Backyard Brawl or Black Diamond in week 2 or 3 and it's THE game in that time slot as far as I'm concerned, most of the matchups in those weeks are basically worth fuck all outside the one or two UT-Michigan tier matchups. So when you see a rivalry game like that on the schedule that early in the year you know you're going to be getting a ton of eyes watching that normally wouldn't give a damn. But that's basically the only positive to being in a different conference from our traditional rivals. Even getting the game on the schedule most years can be a chore. 

[Lonestar88 4659]

2 hours ago, NCMountaineer said:

Using that line of thinking I honestly think the new MWC would be better off approaching the two Montanas, NDSU, and SDSU about making the move to FBS from FCS to round out their numbers but I don't think they're willing to make that move even though it would be a more compelling product. 

Do the Montana schools and NDSU and SDSU even want to move up? I’m not sure they do. They aren’t making any of the moves that Sacramento St. (an FCS school that actually wants to move up) are making.