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Realignment talk not going away

The Tower

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Posted by Sandbagging Steve,

How many teams will be left when the dust settles in a few years? I think there's a way for all the teams to still have some involvement. I will explain that at the end of this list. Here's my list of the top 32 programs and a list if it goes to 48. There's some debate if it goes to 48, but not much debate if it stops at 32. I guess one could debate Arizona State, but that's about it. The top 32 at least come close to carrying their own weight. Everyone below that line is losing money for t

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Aggy should abstain so the vote is 13-0 and then we can then brand it on their dog.

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UncleSonny

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Athletic article 

https://theathletic.com/2724083/2021/07/22/sources-oklahoma-and-texas-might-declare-their-intent-to-leave-soon-but-it-could-take-an-awkward-long-time-from-there/?source=user_shared_article

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A declaration of intent by Oklahoma and Texas to leave the Big 12 (likely for the SEC) could come sooner rather than later. But it could take a while for those schools to actually leave, The Athletic has learned. And that could get really, really awkward.

If necessary, the Sooners and Longhorns are prepared to wait until the Big 12’s current media rights deal expires in June 2025 before moving on to a new league. That would eliminate the possibility of any legal action by current Big 12 members, but it also would create some very uncomfortable games, conference meetings and conference tournaments over the next four years.

A more realistic outcome would be a settlement of some kind that sets the schools free to join a new league earlier, but that probably would require Oklahoma and Texas to give up a considerable sum of money in the short term. That is what happened when Maryland left the ACC for the Big Ten. The Terrapins decided to leave in late 2012, and an ACC rule passed in September of that year (which Maryland voted against) required Maryland to pay a $52.2 million exit fee. After dueling lawsuits were filed, that number was reduced to $31.4 million in mediation and Maryland was allowed to leave for the Big Ten, where its teams began playing in 2014.

The difference between this situation and that one is Oklahoma and Texas agreed to a Grant of Rights, which means the conference controls the media rights to the teams’ home games for a predetermined period of time. In the case of the Big 12, the Grant of Rights runs concurrently with the rights deals with ESPN and Fox that expire in 2025. So instead of a flat exit fee, the schools would forfeit conference media rights revenue distribution for any year which they are on the Grant of Rights but don’t play in the league. For the 2019-20 school year, the league distributed an average of $37.7 million per team. That number fell to an average of $34.5 million in the most recent school year, but it should rise again with the schools prepared to play full football schedules in 2021.

Because the departures of Oklahoma and Texas would effectively gut the revenue-generating capability of the current Big 12 lineup, expect the remaining schools to fight tooth and nail to keep them from leaving, and, failing that, to make it as difficult and expensive as possible to leave. When Texas A&M and the SEC planned to announce their union in early September 2011, then-Baylor president Kenneth Starr left a voicemail for then-SEC commissioner Mike Slive threatening a lawsuit. This held up the process for a few weeks, but Baylor ultimately relented after the other Big 12 members turned their focus to finding a replacement for Texas A&M — which turned out to be West Virginia. (TCU was invited after Missouri announced its intent to leave for the SEC later that year.)

It was interesting Wednesday when Texas A&M officials voiced their criticisms of Texas joining the SEC that they made very clear in their statements that Oklahoma and Texas reached out to the SEC. Who called whom first is very important in these matters because a conference trying to poach a contractually bound member could be grounds for a tortious interference claim. But a contractually bound school can open discussions with another league if it wants. This tells us that even though the Aggies don’t want Texas in the SEC, they also don’t want to cause any legal trouble for the league should it decide to add the Longhorns. If Texas and Oklahoma made the call first, then there would be no grounds for a suit.

If the schools announce their intent to leave and begin negotiations for an exit, Oklahoma and Texas also can try to hasten their exits by making life difficult for the remaining teams in the league. Presumably, the Big 12 would want to move to add schools and try to get an idea what its next media rights deal would be worth. But a spiteful Oklahoma and Texas biding their time before they leave could muck up that process. So if Oklahoma and Texas opt to leave, it may behoove the schools of the Big 12 to meet the defectors in the middle and take some cash to let them go.

No matter what, it will be awkward. But we have seen some awkward final years before. Nebraska played in the Big 12 title game in 2010 after announcing earlier that summer that it intended to join the Big Ten in 2011. Texas A&M accepted an invitation from the SEC in September 2011 and played out the rest of that season in the Big 12. Maryland spent nearly two full school years in the ACC before departing for the Big Ten. The award for longest lame-duck period goes to Louisville. Because the Big East offered a discounted exit fee for schools that provided 27 months’ notice that they were leaving the league, then-athletic director Tom Jurich told the Big East in October 2011 that the Cardinals intended to exit the league at the end of the 2013-14 school year. Jurich’s plan at the time was to go to the Big 12, but that league chose West Virginia, and after some nervous months, Louisville received an invitation to the ACC.

Some good info here about timing but it kind ignores the incentive the remaining 8 will have to jump at any chance to join another conference. Sure they want to fuck us but they aren’t going to risk missing out on a chair when the music stops to do so. 

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stupidsooner

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Interesting that no leaks came out of the SEC meeting. Seems like its pretty much a done deal. I'm sure everyone with real influence is a yes. Leaks would only hurt the process. They likely want to move as fast as possible and reduce the chance of B1G/PAC, TV networks, legislators, etc. getting involved.

OU/UT will want to sign ASAP for recruiting. Uncertainty only hurts them. Same thing for the remaining Big 12 members w/r/t finding a new home.

My bet is that this is the last Big 12 season...

Edited by stupidsooner
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Gucci_Suit

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4 minutes ago, mchookem said:

if this deal gets done... every single game we play this season is going to be so chippy, they'll ALL be out for murder. there will be horns down all over the place 🙄

Was thinking this as well  Definitely from our perspective. But will OU suddenly start getting the shit we’ve been getting for the last decade? Will the refs hold it against those idiots. I’ll be watching all the Ou games that I usually don’t. 
 

ou sucks. 

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Pancho

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5 minutes ago, totallynotabuttpirate said:

There's no way in hell we wait until 2025. That's insane. Option one is leave with 2 other schools. Option 2 is to break the agreement and settle with the other schools.  

Gagree.  I wouldn’t be surprised if this was our last season in the 12. 

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UTEX_ME

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1 minute ago, Gucci_Suit said:

Was thinking this as well  Definitely from our perspective. But will OU suddenly start getting the shit we’ve been getting for the last decade? Will the refs hold it against those idiots. I’ll be watching all the Ou games that I usually don’t. 
 

ou sucks. 

maybe those teams will actually get up for OU like they do Texas instead of laying over and dying in the 1st quarter. 

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ztejas

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4 minutes ago, stupidsooner said:

My bet is that this is the last Big 12 season...

God. Just this thought makes me so happy. 

I've seen 2008 and 2015 osu get brought up a bunch in here - I was at the TCU game last year which featured some of the worst officiating I've ever seen in the first half. Some of the basketball officiating was atrocious this year, too. This conference is past its expiration date and has been for awhile now. 

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UTEX_ME

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Just now, ztejas said:

God. Just this thought makes me so happy. 

I've seen 2008 and 2015 osu get brought up a bunch in here - I was at the TCU game last year which featured some of the worst officiating I've ever seen in the first half. Some of the basketball officiating was atrocious this year, too. This conference is past its expiration date and has been for awhile now. 

Ever since Dodds left (or maybe the LHN) we have seemingly been fighting officiating in football & basketball. This conference seemed hell bent on keeping the cash cow down for some reason. 

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Nueces River Rat

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4 minutes ago, Gucci_Suit said:

Was thinking this as well  Definitely from our perspective. But will OU suddenly start getting the shit we’ve been getting for the last decade? Will the refs hold it against those idiots. I’ll be watching all the Ou games that I usually don’t. 
 

ou sucks. 

Will not miss the incompetence from the Big 12 Officiating crews.   But with potentially no place to go, I’m sure some will be absorbed by the SEC.   

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totallynotabuttpirate

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1 minute ago, UTEX_ME said:

Ever since Dodds left (or maybe the LHN) we have seemingly been fighting officiating in football & basketball. This conference seemed hell bent on keeping the cash cow down for some reason. 

Yep, way to many wtf ref moments since then. Even that TCU shit last year was insane. 

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UTEX_ME

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Just now, Zhorn96 said:

for those wondering why the Pac wouldn't take TCU or Baylor...there is a long held sentiment of "no religious schools" to be in the Pac.  BYU has wanted in forever and they're a better take than the other 2 I would think

TCU & Baylor are destined for the AAC or whatever it becomes when they inevitably start adding teams. 

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Rip76

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10 minutes ago, stupidsooner said:

Interesting that no leaks came out of the SEC meeting. Seems like its pretty much a done deal. I'm sure everyone with real influence is a yes. Leaks would only hurt the process. They likely want to move as fast as possible and reduce the chance of B1G/PAC, TV networks, legislators, etc. getting involved.

OU/UT will want to sign ASAP for recruiting. Uncertainty only hurts them. Same thing for the remaining Big 12 members w/r/t finding a new home.

My bet is that this is the last Big 12 season...

I’m thinking you’re right.  Hopefully this will be the last B12 season.  Get it done and move on. 

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Cairn Horn88

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3 hours ago, Newy25 said:

The crazy thing about A&M going so public with their opposition is there is no walking this back. The narrative will be they did everything they could to block this (which was not much apparently) and since the likelihood of this happening is so high they just look like complete idiots in the end. What a terrible strategy to just whine about this through the press. 

Well, the aggy that wrote the article in the Houston Chronicle....prematurely broke the news to stir this up.  sec, Texas and OU didn't want this out, while they were ironing out the details....remember the Saban fiasco?

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ztejas

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7 minutes ago, UTEX_ME said:

TCU & Baylor are destined for the AAC or whatever it becomes when they inevitably start adding teams. 

I think we are at 11 for both football and basketball right now. Baylor and TCU no brainers. Would probably try and pick up a 3rd to get to 14.

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TrashMaster G

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3 minutes ago, nd2003 said:

KSU to the PAC? That makes no sense. The elitist snobs at our schools here will not okay this addition. KU? Maybe, not likely either. Does Kansas have a bathroom bill? 

People keep saying this.  The math has changed, folks.  If the PAC does not make a move, they risk being left on the outside, having some of their current membership poached.  Standing pat for them is NOT an option.

Not saying that KSU or KU specifically will be invited, but the PAC will have to move on somebody or risk having their home raided.

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Cairn Horn88

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4 hours ago, jimmyjazz said:

Well, you see, UGA didn't want to be there.  Neither did Mizzou, Utah, or most recently Colorado. 

Once you crack the code, it's easy to see why these bowl victories keep happening.

So, always look for a bowl opponent who doesn't want to be there?   Got it!

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Skipper

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4 minutes ago, Majorcholas said:

Can we please just NEVER chant SEC! SEC! SEC! Leave that shit for aggy

I predict their consolation for breach of the BS "gentleman's agreement" to get to a unanimous vote will be an SEC promise to aggy that they get to host the first game against Texas.   So they get to "stick it to us" by getting back to back home games in the rivalry.  When we beat their ass on Kyle Field again, that will be my one and only time to chant SEC SEC SEC at those stupid fucks.

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