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Realignment talk not going away

The Tower

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Posted by Sandbagging Steve,

How many teams will be left when the dust settles in a few years? I think there's a way for all the teams to still have some involvement. I will explain that at the end of this list. Here's my list of the top 32 programs and a list if it goes to 48. There's some debate if it goes to 48, but not much debate if it stops at 32. I guess one could debate Arizona State, but that's about it. The top 32 at least come close to carrying their own weight. Everyone below that line is losing money for t

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Born Burnt

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19 hours ago, 'stache said:

Oh don't worry, there is plenty of blame to go around. I blame arky for making a short sighted decision to leave the SWC just a few years before a better alignment became available. I blame Baylor (and maybe Tech if I have my history right) for forcing themselves into the conference in a way that ticked some people off from the outset. I blame UT, OU, NU, and aggy for demanding unequal revenue share that was almost certain to destabilize the conference. I blame whoever made the shit decision to not have a permanent cross-division rivalry to salvage OU-NU at the outset. I blame the networks for the "oNE schOOl PER TV MARkEt" bullshit that drove the last round and for destroying long time rivalries because of cable package nonsense that was already a dying model. I blame aggy again for blowing up the Pac-16 move a bunch of us agreed to at a time where everyone else probably could have found a comfortable landing spot. I blame Mizzou for lifting its skirt to the Big 10 which is the earlier I remember this latest wave of bullshit starting. I actually don't blame NU or CU for their moves, which was at a time that it looked pretty inevitable that the Big 12 wouldn't last. And yes, I blame OU and Texas for their moves now when they could have salvaged the conference a decade ago and did nothing to help knowing that they had their eyes set elsewhere because of a few extra million. It's all bullshit. 

Fuck off.

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Aggy should abstain so the vote is 13-0 and then we can then brand it on their dog.

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Zhorn96

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6 hours ago, notre dame joe said:

So you want to give up 20 to 100 years of tradition to see Oxford Mississippi?

Went to Oxford a couple years ago for the Cal game.  Nice town and some badass food.  Fans were pretty cool too... the drive into Oxford from Memphis was pretty sad but...yeah, I'll take Oxford over Ames any day.  Starkvegas though...

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aggie08

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2 minutes ago, TexEx15 said:

 

Watching all of these universities freak out, posture, and squirm at the threat of potentially losing millions of dollars in TV contracts is particularly humorous because they're largely the same individuals and institutions who argue for keeping the sanctity of [unpaid] amateur athletics.

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RGBIII

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7 minutes ago, BurntOrange&White said:

post article...

Spoiler

TCU has produced seven top-10 teams under coach Gary Patterson. Oklahoma State has finished in the Top 25 nine times under Mike Gundy. Iowa State is coming off a New Year’s Six bowl win and a top-10 finish. Baylor just won the NCAA Tournament in men’s basketball.

But conference realignment is only marginally tied to on-field performance. Television value — nearly all of which comes from football — is the overwhelming factor when leagues consider adding new schools.

If Texas and Oklahoma do in fact defect to the SEC, the Big 12’s “Left-Behind 8” may be in for a humbling reception as they begin exploring their options. The unfortunate reality is there’s very little difference between the TV interest in Kansas State and West Virginia and the interest for UCF or Houston.

The Big 12 reported $253 million in annual television revenue on its 2019-20 tax return, most of that from a pair of 13-year contracts it signed with ESPN and Fox in 2012. Two sports TV consultants estimated to The Athletic that about 50 percent of those deals’ value was derived solely because of Texas and Oklahoma.

A look at recent Big 12 football TV ratings provides an eye-opening explanation.

The Athletic pulled data from Sports Media Watch for every Big 12 regular-season home game from the 2018 and ’19 seasons that aired on ABC, Fox, ESPN, ESPN2, ESPNU or FS1. (Viewership data for Big 12 games on Longhorn Network, ESPN+ and regional networks aren’t publicly available.)

As co-rights holders, ESPN and Fox hold a draft for each week of the season to determine which games land on which network. They almost always place their top games on over-the-air networks Fox and ABC.

Perhaps the most telling sign of how disproportionately important OU and UT were to those companies is that 33 of the 38 Big 12 games chosen for ABC or Fox — 87 percent — involved one or both of those schools. In 2019, all 11 Oklahoma games covered by the Big 12’s Tier 1 contract were shown over-the-air. Ten of 11 were the year before.

It’s no coincidence, then, that 27 of the conference’s 30 most-viewed regular-season games over those two seasons involved the Sooners and/or the Longhorns, led by the 2019 LSU-Texas game on ABC (8.6 million) and the 2019 Red River Showdown (7.3 million). No. 3 on the list did involve one of the Left-Behind 8, but it also included another national power — the 2018 Ohio State-TCU game in Arlington, Texas, on ABC (7.2 million). You have to scroll through 11 games before finding a game between two of the Left-Behind 8 — West Virginia at Oklahoma State in 2018 on ABC (3.9 million).

Most-watched Big 12 games, 2018-2019
2019 LSU at Texas
8.6 million
ABC
2019 Oklahoma vs. Texas
7.3 million
Fox
2018 Ohio State vs. TCU
7.2 million
ABC
2019 Oklahoma at Baylor
6.8 million
ABC
2019 Oklahoma at Oklahoma State
5.8 million
Fox
2018 Oklahoma at West Virginia
5.6 million
ESPN
2018 Oklahoma vs. Texas
5.6 million
Fox
2019 Houston at Oklahoma
5.4 million
ABC
2018 West Virginia at Texas
4.4 million
Fox
2019 Oklahoma at Kansas State
4.2 million
ABC
2018 Oklahoma State at Oklahoma
3.9 million
ABC
2018 West Virginia at Oklahoma State
3.9 million
ABC
The discrepancy becomes particularly glaring when average audiences are compared.

The 22 Oklahoma games included in the two-year sample averaged 3.76 million viewers. The 18 Texas games averaged 3.2 million. The other 59 Big 12 games averaged a modest 886,000 viewers, less than 25 percent of Oklahoma’s average.

Average TV audience, 2018-2019
Oklahoma
3.76 million
22
Texas
3.2 million
18
Others
886,000
59
*(Regular season Big 12 home games on Fox, ABC, ESPN, ESPN2, ESPNU or FS1)

Tellingly, the two largest audiences for an ESPN game involving the other eight Big 12 teams were for nonconference games featuring SEC opponents, both in 2018: Ole Miss vs. Texas Tech in (1.9 million) and Mississippi State at Kansas State (1.8 million). The largest ESPN audience for a game between two Big 12 teams not named Oklahoma or Texas was 1.6 million for Iowa State at West Virginia in 2019.

In fairness, that 886,000 number is due at least in part to 33 of those 59 games airing on FS1, a struggling network that has largely failed to gain traction despite widespread availability. But it’s not as if the Big 12 is the only conference that FS1 shows. The Big 12’s FS1 games averaged about 40 percent fewer viewers than the 22 Big Ten games that network showed during the same time.

The Athletic also compared the Big 12’s data with that of the American Athletic Conference. For apples-to-apples purposes, only games on the ESPN networks were included, as the AAC does not have a contract with Fox.

The 22 non-OU/Texas Big 12 home games on ABC, ESPN or ESPN2 over those two seasons averaged 1.37 million viewers. The 49 AAC home games on those same networks averaged 1.01 million viewers. But take away that one mammoth Ohio State-TCU outlier from the Big 12, and its number drops to 1.10 million.

That’s just 90,000 more viewers, on average, than the AAC draws.

So what does all this mean for the Left-Behind 8?

Per its Form 990, the Big 12 distributed an average of $38.5 million to its members in fiscal year 2020. With TV contracts accounting for 62 percent of the conference’s $409 million in total revenue, it can reasonably be estimated that TV accounted for about $24 million of those schools’ distribution checks.

If the aforementioned TV consultants are correct in their estimate that Oklahoma and Texas generated 50 percent of that value, then the Left-Behind 8 would expect to see that number drop to $12 million per school. Even if the other revenue streams remained the same — unlikely, as the league would also produce fewer bowl and NCAA Tournament teams — their overall share would drop to $26.5 million

That’s about half what the Big Ten currently distributes to its members and about 40 percent of what the SEC is projected to reach if Oklahoma and Texas come aboard.

And that $12 million TV figure might prove too optimistic if/when the Big 12 negotiates its next contract. On one hand, sports rights in general have skyrocketed in the nine years since the conference last went to the market. On the other, such a depleted conference does not figure to garner a bidding war between networks, which could dampen the price.

A more useful recent analog, given the viewership numbers cited earlier, might be the AAC’s new ESPN deal that began in 2020. That contract nets its schools about $7 million a year on average.

Unfortunately, that $7 million-to-$12 million range does not bode well for the Left-Behind 8’s chances of landing an invitation to one of the other Power 5 conferences. The ACC, Big Ten and Pac-12 are unlikely to invite a school that would drag down its current members’ slice of the conference pie. All three currently make far more than that from media rights.

The more realistic play is for the AAC and Left-Behind 8 to join forces in some capacity. The only question is which league will raid the other. Sources told The Athletic’s Nicole Auerbach that the “Power 6” conference plans to become an aggressor.

Meanwhile, a Big 12 AD lamented to The Athletic’s Bruce Feldman last week that “bringing in a Cincinnati and UCF doesn’t bring any eyeballs.”

Technically, that AD’s not wrong. There’s no evidence to suggest those schools bring in more eyeballs than his. But he may need to come to terms with the reality that his school may soon be held in similar regard.

 

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Beantown Express 2.0

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I am listening to Mark Passwaters on ESPNU XM radio right now.  It is unreal what these A&M assholes say and that the hosts don't respond back.  He went on how UT is so difficult to deal with and they destroyed the SWC and now the Big 12.  UT destroying the SWC is so untrue and I have yet to hear Aggies take on how UT destroyed that conference.  He went on about we are the most difficult school to deal with/we push everybody around and the SEC will not put up with our shit.   Every time this guy said something derogatory about UT the host just laughed it off and asked another question.  It's really fucking annoying.  Just forgetting that this guy is an Aggie, if you listen to the way he talks (and I guess all Aggies) it is the way LOSERS talk plain and simple.  Not losers in sports but losers in life.  Blaming everyone else for your issues and problems even though they had nothing to with them.  I hate that fucking loser attitude.  Own up to your shit and stop blaming everybody else. 

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TeeDubya

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1 hour ago, Aqua Buddha said:

I'll say this.  I love people and organizations who think strategic and long term.  You should always do that in business and in life.  

That being said, props to both OU and Texas in all this.  They realized some years ago that their interests were intertwined and they were better together than apart.  They played the long game in trying to keep the Big 12 afloat but alas, they couldn't.  When they assessed that, they moved on in a joint fashion and managed their respective schools like a forward thinking corporation and not some group of emotional children like some other programs over the past 10 years.

Absolutely.  I hate the the shit out of burnt orange, but I respect the shit out of the beast.  You can't deny the success of the long-game brand-building and equity the Longhorn name has built.  There is no equal in college athletics.  Texas makes OU better, and OU makes Texas better. 

This is the best forum in all of college athletics, save a few aggies that wandered in.  Y'all are a lot better than the knuckle-dragging, mouth-breathing, single-syllable grunters that populate  most of the OU boards.

I hope you understand the pain I endured typing that paragraph.  So fuck right off. 
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29 minutes ago, Red Five said:

Shhhhhh. Any conference would be lucky to have these fine 8 schools. They should be scooped up ASAP. 

The ASAP conference.  Brilliant.

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Armybrat

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7 minutes ago, Beantown Express 2.0 said:

I am listening to Mark Passwaters on ESPNU XM radio right now.  It is unreal what these A&M assholes say and that the hosts don't respond back.  He went on how UT is so difficult to deal with and they destroyed the SWC and now the Big 12.  UT destroying the SWC is so untrue and I have yet to hear Aggies take on how UT destroyed that conference.  He went on about we are the most difficult school to deal with/we push everybody around and the SEC will not put up with our shit.   Every time this guy said something derogatory about UT the host just laughed it off and asked another question.  It's really fucking annoying.  Just forgetting that this guy is an Aggie, if you listen to the way he talks (and I guess all Aggies) it is the way LOSERS talk plain and simple.  Not losers in sports but losers in life.  Blaming everyone else for your issues and problems even though they had nothing to with them.  I hate that fucking loser attitude.  Own up to your shit and stop blaming everybody else. 

Well, when the goddamned hell are UT officials going to get their asses on to call that bullshit?

Just sitting back and allowing that one side propaganda to be perpetuated is NOT making UT the “better guy who is above the fray”. Being passive in this case is for pussies.

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Huckleberry

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1 minute ago, Armybrat said:

Well, when the goddamned hell are UT officials going to get their asses on to call that bullshit?

Just sitting back and allowing that one side propaganda to be perpetuated is NOT making UT the “better guy who is above the fray”. Being passive in this case is for pussies.

This is 100% correct, but I don't think the UT admin will ever do anything about it.

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Texas St. Armadillos

Texas St. Armadillos 1388

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2 minutes ago, Armybrat said:

Well, when the goddamned hell are UT officials going to get their asses on to call that bullshit?

Just sitting back and allowing that one side propaganda to be perpetuated is NOT making UT the “better guy who is above the fray”. Being passive in this case is for pussies.

Lewis Rothschild : They don't have a choice! Bob Rumson is the only one doing the talking! People want leadership, Mr. President, and in the absence of genuine leadership, they'll listen to anyone who steps up to the microphone. They want leadership. They're so thirsty for it they'll crawl through the desert toward a mirage, and when they discover there's no water, they'll drink the sand.

President Andrew Shepherd : Lewis, we've had presidents who were beloved, who couldn't find a coherent sentence with two hands and a flashlight. People don't drink the sand because they're thirsty. They drink the sand because they don't know the difference.

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kevwun

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8 minutes ago, irishtexan said:

Does the creation of a separate SECEast/SECWest networks mean that there will be two separate divisions of 8 teams rather than 4 pods of 4 teams?

The only people running with the pod stuff are fans from what I can see.  No one with actual sources seems to be talking about pods.  I think it's going to be 2 divisions.

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Rockethorn1978

Rockethorn1978 6204

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1 hour ago, Randolph Duke said:

The list of aggy dumbfuckery is so long, where does one start responding?

"Not a branch of UT"

"Highly esteemed military academy"

"Wealthiest public university in the world"

"Just like UT Austin"

"Multiple national championships"

"More officers during WWII than Annapolis and West Point combined"

"Only aggys ever have served their country"

"The finest fans in all college sports"

"Solved the mystery of alchemy"

"Perfected cold fusion"

"50 million doses of vaccine delivered within twelve weeks in case of flu pandemic"

 

That people can't see through the pure aggy bullshit amazes me. What would you have someone from the university say to begin trying to explain to people what they choose not to even try to verify for themselves.

At some point, you have to accept ignorant people will go through life believing in fairy tales.

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jinx

jinx 2636

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SEC! SEC! SEC!

So I wanted to discuss this matter a bit, and I'm not one to start new threads, so I will just post it here where it will be irrelevant in an hour.

I get the hatred for the SEC, I was a full on hater for years. But I live in the middle of SEC country and I have gained perspective and now understand it, even if I don't fully embrace it. As shocking as this may be, Texas fits perfectly into the SEC mindset. They collectively feel they are the best, and they all agree (one school aside) that Texas is among the best and should be included in their group.

They have very much adopted the Texas philosophy of "they hate us cuz they ain't us" and have banded together to shoot the rest of the collective sporting world a middle finger. Much like Horns down is a national topic simply because the world hates us, the SEC dominance is a topic because of the hatred as much as the factual nature.

We are learning right now the repercussions of surrounding yourselves with a bunch of also rans that never stack any trophies in the conference closet. We were losing credibility as a result. Pretty much everyone brings something to the table in the SEC in some way or form, and even the lowliest South Carolina still packs 70-80k into a stadium to watch their team lose year after year.

They simply do just care more. We do to, that's why we should be here. My first college football game ever was at Jordan-Hare Stadium and I was hooked. I went to the 2nd ever SEC Championship game and learned to hate Bammer. I have been to dozens of games at the Swamp and games in Baton Rouge and a few other SEC towns. They are all  die hard fans. The only ghost town for a game is typically Vandy, but at least they are in Nashville.

I don't think any fan base aside from aggy whole heartedly roots for another team like Bama. Most have a very strong hatred for all things crimson, and truly hate their rivals. But if the option is to root for Bama or Ohio State, they want Bama to murder Ohio State to prove that the conference they play in is the best. It doesn't matter the sport, the SEC wants to dominate it. Over the last decade they pretty much have (aside from basketball). It means that every game every week matters. If you came close but didn't win it, at least you probably get a shot at the team that did next year. That is much better than another year long schedule facing a bunch of teams that have never won shit.

Texas is one of the very best brands in college sports. We are now part of the very best conference in college sports. This is a great week to be a Longhorn.

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South Austin

South Austin 53158

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7 minutes ago, Armybrat said:

Well, when the goddamned hell are UT officials going to get their asses on to call that bullshit?

Just sitting back and allowing that one side propaganda to be perpetuated is NOT making UT the “better guy who is above the fray”. Being passive in this case is for pussies.

How is this significantly different than aggy smearing us on the way out in 2011, and Nebraska doing the same in 2010?  Or a national guy like Kirk Herbstreit calling Austin a cesspool?  Yet we still rise to the top in athletic revenue and are perceived as the crown jewel of realignment.  No need for our administration to get involved in the mudslinging. 

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Gidnik

Gidnik 3475

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i think Texas and ou both pay their buyouts and then ESPN comes in and tells the remaining big 12 to let Texas and ou go to the SEC immediately and they will not lower the amount of money the big 12 tv rights. at least thats my take on it. i cant see either party wanting this to drag out until 2025,

 

 

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LTtxfan

LTtxfan 49916

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14 minutes ago, Armybrat said:

Well, when the goddamned hell are UT officials going to get their asses on to call that bullshit?

Just sitting back and allowing that one side propaganda to be perpetuated is NOT making UT the “better guy who is above the fray”. Being passive in this case is for pussies.

 

“When your enemy's making mistakes, don't interrupt him.”
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