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Realignment talk not going away

The Tower

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Posted by Sandbagging Steve,

How many teams will be left when the dust settles in a few years? I think there's a way for all the teams to still have some involvement. I will explain that at the end of this list. Here's my list of the top 32 programs and a list if it goes to 48. There's some debate if it goes to 48, but not much debate if it stops at 32. I guess one could debate Arizona State, but that's about it. The top 32 at least come close to carrying their own weight. Everyone below that line is losing money for t

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Aggy should abstain so the vote is 13-0 and then we can then brand it on their dog.

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gernblansten

gernblansten 3190

Posted
Posted
21 minutes ago, Doyle Hargreaves said:

You are joining Mississippi today. Congrats. Send a pic of the new robe. 
 

I live in Spur. Name is Don Ed. I dine every Friday at the Ponderosa over in Dickens. (Rib day) 

Hollar at me if you need an ass whuppin. 

[Roy D] Well just how big a boy are ya? [ Mercer]

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Texasrocks

Texasrocks 2126

Posted
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4 minutes ago, Rickylovesweed said:

The buyout is going to be reduced no matter what. 

$10 to $15 million per member is nothing. If you think that small amount of money is going to keep the irate 8 from leaving I don't know what to tell you. 

There seems to be a huge benefit to staying one season. Not because of the buyout, but because of the $40 million TV payout per member. No one is going to get that elsewhere. Things get murky in a hurry after that. The buyout is the final 2 years of distributions. Texas and OU are staying this year so there's no reason the buyout would drop in year one. That's $80 million in year one (setting aside any legal challenges from Texas and OU). But next season, there's no way ESPN and Fox pay $40 million per school. Just for the sake of argument, let's use $20 million for a round and very generous number. That means the total buyout payment that each school would get is $15 million over two years. Not bad, but probably not going to keep anyone from looking around. But the payment for this upcoming year would. Teams can expect something like:

Year 1: $50 million ($40 million for their share of the TV contract plus $10 million in buyout money)

Year 2: $25 million ($20 million for their share of the TV contract and $5 million in buyout) plus whatever comes from Texas/OU grant of rights.

Year one is an easy decision unless you know you can reserve a seat in the B1G and possibly the Pac 12. If more teams withdraw this year, everyone else is screwed. If not, the prisoner's dilemma kicks in for year two. You might get $25 million. You might be homeless. If I'm Texas/OU/ESPN, I offer $160 million to settle everything after one year. Each school gets $60 million next year ($40 million from TV rights plus $20 million in buyout money) and can immediately start looking for a new home. Schools would have a relatively straight forward decision - is $20 million worth the uncertainty that comes in year two? That's a shitty deal if all 8 schools can stick together and somehow win the ensuing legal battles. [Narrator: there's virtually no chance they all stick together and win the ensuing legal battles.] It's a fantastic deal if more schools withdraw soon and a decent deal if everyone can hang on for one year.

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Doyle Hargreaves

Doyle Hargreaves 301

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7 minutes ago, Smax said:

orphaned 8 -Texas is bad you guys run the conference, you want unequal revenue share, The LHN isn't fare, bitch moan whine whine whine

 

Texas - ok we're out we have a better opportunity elsewhere

 

Orphaned 8 - no don't go we need you

No and yes. Were definitely butthurt over the money haircut. But as far as seeing you or playing you. Personally, Idgaf. 
 

There is little chance the 8 would have competition wise with richer schools being able to stack rosters using the NIL. 
 

 

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Francisco 2.0

Francisco 2.0 32347

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40 minutes ago, 'stache said:

I know where I am, so I don't complain too much, but this "freeloader" stuff is just silly. That's how conferences work. Unless and until you guys go full Prestige Worldwide, conferences have programs making more than they would on their own. That's how conferences work (for now at least).

 

You aren't getting it.

 

Because of its association to the SEC, Vanderbilt by itself could command up* to an additional $250 million per year to the B10 TV contract.  My media analysis company calculated this just recently.  Because reasons.

 

 

 

 

*probably more like $25 a year, but I digress.

 

 

 

 

 

Trollface_non-free.png

 

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ABSR

ABSR 5289

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Posted
13 hours ago, Newy25 said:

I was in a meeting with an Ok State grad today (until he said something I had no idea where he went to school). Apparently the fact that I went to Texas was somehow public knowledge to the group I was meeting which is strange enough for an entirely different discussion. He opens with “you guys destroy every conference you ever join.”  I was taken back considering I wasn’t prepared for the professional response that was required of me. The “have fun in the Sun Belt with your 18 fans that watch you on TV” response was not appropriate for the setting. The only thing I came up with was “what about OU? Didn’t they destroy the conference with us?” No response. 

The narrative really is we are to blame for everything. It’s all our fault. Not any of the good like creating the Big 12 and solely keeping it alive the last 10 years so schools like Ok State can collect tens of millions a year they would not otherwise get. Just the bad. So fuck it. If everyone thinks we are the evil empire, lets blow up some fucking planets with our Death Star because we are going to be hated anyway.  We might as well grab all of the money and athletic success we can get in the process. 

"It sounds like we are and were horrible to share a conference with, so by removing ourselves it should be nothing but happiness and goodness to your school.  So you're welcome."

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Jasper_Jester

Jasper_Jester 356

Posted
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24 minutes ago, Doyle Hargreaves said:

You are joining Mississippi today. Congrats. Send a pic of the new robe. 
 

I live in Spur. Name is Don Ed. I dine every Friday at the Ponderosa over in Dickens. (Rib day) 

Hollar at me if you need an ass whuppin. 

I personally only fight idiots from sports forums in Temecula. 

You should see someone to help with your anger issues.

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DiceHands

DiceHands 349

Posted
Posted (edited)

Am I the only one that suspects that Tech is the one that ratted out ESPN if those rumors are true?  They are already salty about the Beard situation, and they have a pretty poor history with ESPN (craig james did kill 5 hookers afterall).  

Either way, I dont get the plea from the Big 12.  Its like asking the employees of a dying company to stick around and work until the lights go off without looking for another job first.  Why would they stick around to make the Big 12 every last drop of money possible when they could bounce and secure their future for the next 10-20 years?

Big 12 dumb.

Edited by DiceHands
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immamac

immamac 42576

Posted
Posted
51 minutes ago, 'stache said:

I know where I am, so I don't complain too much, but this "freeloader" stuff is just silly. That's how conferences work. Unless and until you guys go full Prestige Worldwide, conferences have programs making more than they would on their own. That's how conferences work (for now at least).

It's actually not how conferences work. Healthy, long term conferences don't have this problem and when they do they relentlessly pick on the less fortunate (see B1G and Rutgers). Is there a perfect balance? no, but don't try to come in here and bullshit us that if MICH and OSU left that the B1G would implode like the Big XII did. They have Wiscy, Mich st, PSU, etc etc basically everyone but shit ass rutgers has a very substantial fanbase and a big portion of eyes would still watch those games. Michigan has been dogshit the last 15 years and they are nowhere near the Brand that Texas is financially when they are bad. 

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Orange&White

Orange&White 5516

Posted
Posted
35 minutes ago, Nueces River Rat said:

Of course not...  Can you imagine USC and Stanford fans having to visit Waco and Lubbock every few years?   Connecting flights are not their thing.

Those fans barely attend their own home games. Do you really think they are going to attend away games?

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utee94

utee94 15747

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, DiceHands said:

Am I the only one that suspects that Tech is the one that ratted out ESPN if those rumors are true?  They are already salty about the Beard situation, and they have a pretty poor history with ESPN (craig james did kill 5 hookers afterall).  

Either way, I dont get the plea from the Big 12.  Its like asking the employees of a dying company to stick around and work until the lights go off without looking for another job first.  Why would they stick around to make the Big 12 every last drop of money possible when they could bounce and secure their future for the next 10-20 years?

Big 12 dumb.

Not all of them will have this opportunity.  And possibly, none of them will have this opportunity.  They have to work back-channels to try to find better slots in P5 conferences, but publicly they still need to attempt to save the B12.  It's a tough place to be and I feel sympathy for (most of) them.

 

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89Horn

89Horn 1495

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, DFW Horn said:

It's almost like Doyle wasn't around for Colorado, Nebraska, Maryland, Mizzou, and aggy defections. Reading comprehension fail, too, from previous posts on the negotiated settlements.

Next, he’s going to say that the irate 8 are going to get punitive, pain and suffering damages, and medical expenses covered because someone stubbed his toe when hearing that TX/OU were leaving the Big XII.  My god it’s like playing cards with my brother’s kids.

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